Open 730: Donner Party [Terminado]

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh. Then this means SK MUST have hit blackstar. The rest won't be reliably worked out until later days.

[Sando]

Oh. Then this means SK MUST have hit blackstar. The rest won't be reliably worked out until later days.

Yes, the SK absolutely 100% hit blackstar, the only other option is that the SK no-killed, and I see no reason the SK would ever choose to no-kill, at least night 1.

[AP]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

I honestly don't know what's going on here. If I'm being ignorant then that means I am ignorant. It looks to me like you already had an idea of what happened. Why not just tell me what I'm missing?

AP can answer for himself, but the obvious thing to me here is that you're ignoring the very real chance that Vig/Mafia hit the SK, and the implications of that.

I'm not sure what you ignoring that means for you being Mafia/SK, but it's a fairly big implication for us to unpack that you've ignored.

@CJV: ^THIS^

But I'll try to reassess and work everything out (i.e. consider all possibilities) before I speak.

[AP]

Oh. Then this means SK MUST have hit blackstar. The rest won't be reliably worked out until later days.

This is obvious. The SK is 1-shot BP and 1-shot RB-immune. Their N1 kill is a strongman kill, so they did kill Blackstar (unless you can come up with a reason for why they wouldn't shoot anyone at all).

[AP]

Oh. Then this means SK MUST have hit blackstar. The rest won't be reliably worked out until later days.

Yes, the SK absolutely 100% hit blackstar, the only other option is that the SK no-killed, and I see no reason the SK would ever choose to no-kill, at least night 1.

Ahem.. I'm starting to sound like a parrot!

[OkaPoka]

can yall throw some votes down preferably on n_m

[AP]

can yall throw some votes down preferably on n_m

Let me be blunt on this one: I do have N_M as a 3rd suspect. But we only have 2 anti-town players left, and we agree the Cop doesn't have guilty on N_M (or anyone else). If we also choose to agree the Vig most likely holstered, then there's no hard/soft guilty against the guy, so I won't just ignore my 1st and 2nd suspects and jump straight to the 3rd one.

Add that we're in no hurry still. We have plenty of time to talk, discuss and evaluate.

Now if you're thinking "let's pressure this guy to get him talking" that's where I said it doesn't work that way.

Here's an example of how to communicate with N_M:

@N_M: Hey, pal.. who's your best guess for a Marshal partner? Do you this the p bussed or was off the wagon? And what's your take on MM going down with his vote on CJV?

[AP]

Do you

this

think the p bussed

[ManateeDude]

can yall throw some votes down preferably on n_m

No. Hes playing bad bot not nessacarily scummy.

[OkaPoka]

explain to me the town motivation of posting only naked votes or non game related content

[AP]

In fact, here's an idea.. change of plans"

@Vig: Shoot the same target (if you targeted someone last night).
@RB: Block

the same

target you blocked last night.

If we have 3 kills the RB target is a VT and Vig didn't shoot last night. In this case the Mafia either targeted Blackstar or the SK.
If we have 2 kills the RB either blocked the Vig or the Mafia for 2 nights. In this case the Vig will know if they were blocked. Otherwise they'll kill the SK. (If the Vig kills the SK the Rb blocked the Mafia and we have our win). If the Vig is blocked for the second night they should claim first (so that the RB stays hidden, because if the town sees 2 kills they can't tell if that's the Vig's or the Mafia's, and neither can the RB, so the RB will claim and then if turns out they blocked the Vig we are giving the Mafia 2 PRs, while if the Vig claims first the RB stays hidden).

If we have 1 NK though, scum are tricking us (Vig should not holster at all.. even if you didn't shoot on N1 you should target someone on N2.. and I volunteer to be your target in that case if you have no confident scum reads).

Yes, I think it's time I outright claimed VT. Why? I'm firmly setting myself as a prime NK target anyway, and I think optimizing and synchronizing our work together outweighs outing I'm not one of the 3 PRs.

So, again:

@Vig: If you acted last night, retarget the same player. If not, just eat me.
@RB: Retarget the same player anyway, and then refer to the above chart to analyze based on the number of NKs

[AP]

explain to me the town motivation of posting only naked votes or non game related content

I can't believe you've been here for over 4 years and never played (or heard about) N_M's play!

Dude, this is how N_M plays ..

always

. You need to have a special bond with him (i.e. have played with him several times before) in order to start trying to guess if this is his town naked-voting/lol!hammering/semi-lurking game or his scum one.

[OkaPoka]

i played with him a long time ago and he was not like this

[AP]

i played with him a long time ago and he was not like this

I play with him regularly and this is how he plays now and have been for as long as I can remember (P.S. This is an alt account)

[OkaPoka]

okay tell me, how do you discern whether he is scum or town if he doesnt talk and only votes

[Sando]

In fact, here's an idea.. change of plans"

@Vig: Shoot the same target (if you targeted someone last night).
@RB: Block the same target you blocked last night.

I agree with this, it occurred to me while thinking through the whole CJ dismissing SK getting shot thing that if Vig (and probably Mafia) got a shot off on the SK last night, most likely the only chance of SK living is for the RB to subsequently change over to the Vig tonight. Vig aren't going to adjust their kill, not sure on Mafia but they have no protection from NK so they probably want a killer gone with no flip of said killer.

The rest of it I'm processing, but I think you're assuming a lot of spilled info that might not spill? I can see a few edge-cases that ruin your theory though. I see no accounting for kills going onto the same person there either. I think your outcome of vig/RB retargeting are the best options though, regardless.

[Eragon]

Welcome, replacements. Oka, stop PR hunting.

Eragon:
1. Seal's EOD post is NAI to me, if you want my opinion.
2. Why is Sando's 176 off-putting to you?
3. What is the point of including Blackstar in your reads?
4. MM voting your slot for inactivity is completely NAI for your slot. MM's vote was just to appear to be towny by getting people to talk. It could also have been an attempt to distance, or to say hey buddy wanna help me out here? It definitely doesn't clear you.
5. The suggestion that Sando is trying to get ejj lynched before he gets back from VLA is ludicrous
6. Your stance on me has changed from your initial post to 300. You had a pretty waffly read on me that seemed to conclude with me being town, and now you've not seen "much towny stuff" from me. Can you clarify/elaborate?

1.if you say so
2.ill answer that in my next post
3.because I didn't edit it out
4.ill explain it
5. ye tbh :/
6.im not talking about you. I'm talking about Seal

[LuckyOtter]

@Eragon: Looking forward to 2 and 4. 3 is fine. 6 makes much more sense if I am generous and assuming the ambiguous use of "them" is just you being tired. See the bolded bits to understand my confusion:

4. UnrealSeal-
>108defends MM by saying they are noob town for hopping votes. Shades otter’s response and vote and then votes otter. I find this post wolfy
>112 I dont see the point of this at all
>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105
>not a huge fan of 118, and I don’t like the stuff about Not_Mafia, seems a bit TMI tbh.
>129 spews both Lucky and Unreal town
>204 wtf is this post?? Betting money MM flips town. My question is, does scum make that post post-hammer

this is my stuff on Seal. and ignore the part about spewing

both of them town

(129) I was tired and it was a shit call.

I think it actually

makes one of them scum.

so really I

havent seen much towny stuff from them

...

[Eragon]

Ye, them was a bit ambiguous lol.


But like, I say, I saw then(unreal) visit black star.
So them is a pronoun I refer to one person sometimes.

It was just a bad choice of words.

I’m still super busy but I know o will have time in about 6 jord to fully catchup and answer anything

[AP]

okay tell me, how do you discern whether he is scum or town if he doesnt talk and only votes

That would be giving away the only way I can actually read him in the future. All I can say that he's not showing his scum side here. albeit having yet to obv!town.

[ManateeDude]

I still fail to see your logic on sando AP, some light distancing D1 is certainly not unheard of, and certainly shouldn't clear them of being scum.

[AP]

I still fail to see your logic on sando AP, some light distancing D1 is certainly not unheard of, and certainly shouldn't clear them of being scum.

OK. Make a case om him and I'll reevaluate. Right now all I'm getting is "there's no proof he's town" which is the case for most -if not all- of us. His actions on D1 do not clear him, but do they condemn him?

[Korina]

Votecount 2.1

Sando(2)

~ ManateeDude(18), Not_Mafia(1)

OkaPoka(1)

~ UnrealSeal(2)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ OkaPoka(28)

ejjinami(1)

~ Sando(14)


Not Voting (5): AP(24), ceejayvinoya(3), ejjinami(0), Eragon(38), LuckyOtter(7)

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-17 00:13:00)

MOD REMINDERS

ejjinami is getting prodded.

[OkaPoka]

I think decent chance of scum in ejj/MM, and I don't think they're scum together. 44 through 49 did not feel organic to me and I'm trying to put my finger on anything specific in there, it feels a bit buddying to me. They're both disagreeing with a hypo claim (which is fine to disagree with) using talk about whether the

cop

GS should claim or not if threatened with lynching (which is not a fine conversation, obviously they should and that has no bearing on us hypoing or not). They also both focus on the

cop

GS while ignoring the other PRs, who is the biggest threat to SK since no block there, and obviously a big threat to Mafia as well

This was the only comment sando made on MM, and later in the day didn't comment at all. I feel like this was a weak attempt at distancing. Also the excessive on smth I felt was T v T gives me scummy vibes.

VOTE: Sando

Also agree with eragon wagon was probably pure of mafia.

Also the excessive on smth I felt was T v T gives me scummy vibes.

clarify please @manatee dude

[Eragon]

@seal

176

To me, this seems like a bunch of unnecessary shade and (bias incoming) confusing me a lot. I’m not sure what that whole post was really about, but it seems like “Oh I understand this is and I’m trying to make it clearer so that it seems like I’m being pro-town by clearing things up”
When I didn’t really
Understand it
It was just a restatement of Ceejay’s post

VOTE: Mathdino I want more from you. You've been staying out of the discussion, as if you didn't want to commit. I think you're fairly experienced and all, so please step in and contribute.

It doesn’t 100% spew me as not mafia(im not) but this post seems like MM was going for towncred acting like they were trying to get inactive people posting. Plus idk whether or not mafia have daychat(regular donner’s party yes, this one says no one has daychat) but if they do have day chat this post would never happen to a partner in thread