Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

skitter30 · Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:18 am

Gah, I hate having to decide whether or not to hammer.

But pine isnt happening, and I'd rather do this today than tomorrow.

VOTE: not mafia

And I strongly urge everyone to consider pine tomorrow.

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:28 am

this game is incredibly frustrating to me

pretty sure pine's scum

really don't know who the other scum is

really don't understand that nk

ceejay doesn't make sense as mafia unless pin likes to lolbus i'm pretty sure

i prob ought to reread the whole game at this point

pine - scum
ceejay - notmaf
klick who used to be fumuki who used to be draynth - not a clue at this point

we need to lynch the wolf today tho; otherwise town loses i think

wolf lynch - two town and one maf; tomorrow is like a regular lylo
maf lynch - townie dies overnight and it's 1 wolf and 1 town tomorrow and wolves win
townie - offhand i don't recall which of wolves/maf win but either way town doesn't.

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:31 am

i guess they were maf hunting?

i think that fumuki probably doesn't make sense as maf given that they were literally begging the wolves to shoot maf at night?

pine makes the most sense as a ww but nobody else makes sense as maf i think

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:52 am

lol ok.

i was just going through pin's iso.

ceejay i'm still pretty sure isn't scum with pin

ruby's iso has literally nothing beyond telling me i'm her partner

ap's isn't super helpful on associatives

fumuki looks viable with pin actually

your slot has basically no mentions with pin

i def believe you're scum but i'm not confident that you're maf; i could totally see you saying that as a wolf to get everyone else to like not lynch you today

aside, before you make me do a whole meta-dive thing, what's your experience with ruby?

(i prob will be checking your answer anyway tho tbh)

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:52 am

in case it wasn't obvious, i'm trying to figure out who kills her that night given that i didn't

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:54 am

bleh i was hoping i would be killed last night

now i have to like *effort* this and i lost motivation like ~three weeks ago

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:26 pm

draynth -> fumuki -> klick (replaced mid day1, and then like overnight n3)

mwnn -> pine (replaced at start of day2, post my AP push)

yankee -> ruby (maf, replaced mid day1)

--

In post 369, Draynth wrote:In the meantime,
VOTE: TheYankeeReaper

Waiting for responses to 367 + he never replied to skitter's 97 from what I can see

his one and only vote probably isn't on his partner?

In post 524, Draynth wrote:
In post 504, AP wrote:
In post 488, ManWithNoName wrote:AP, why Draynth?
TBH, it's starting to be a PL for me in all games I'm in with him. He does jack shit and then replaces out. I want him to replace out sooner than later.
As you wish

@Mod: Sorry to do this but replace me please.

maybe partner indicative?

--

In post 95, TheYankeeReaper wrote:
Not_Mafia wrote:VOTE: ceejayinova
Yep. Needs more pressure votes.

first serious push of the game probably isn't on his partner?

--

Spoiler:

from ruby, also indicative that ceejay isn't a partner i think?

Spoiler:

also from ruby, prob indicative that pine isn't a partner?

In post 1562, Ruby Red wrote:
In post 1557, the worst wrote:Ruby who are the rest of the scum here?
honestly don't have a good town poe

unfortunate that you had to also be PR, though it got us 1 wolf so not all bad

IMO skitter still scum, MWNN was town enough for pine to get a pass for a while

sando feels kinda town looking back at some of his responses to me earlier but he also looks like a skitter partner (lolmultiball1!!)

tbh i thought fuggo looked like just lynchbait town this game

{skitter, CJV, NM, Fumuki}?

but in the midst of that she comes to the conclusion that pine is prob town? hmmmmmm

--

given that pin, ruby, and yankee all went after ceejay i really can't imagine he's maf here

i think they all wolfread him and/or decided he was lynchbait

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:27 pm

i'll look at pine/brass/fumuki/pin and maybe reread day1 later or tomorrow

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:54 pm

i want to hear what pine has to say before i say my opinion

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:23 pm

@pine: lol ok
--

ok i'll think this through now in a ramble-y thing

if we lynch anyone but a wolf today town loses

if we no-lynch, it's 2-1-1 going into the night. if the wolf shoots town, they lose to maf. if the wolf shoots maf it's a 2-1 lylo tomorrow with the wolf. as far as i can tell that basically gives town a 1-in-3 shot of having the game last tomorrow, and it depends on whether the wolf can successfully find the last mafia. tbf to them, they did kill two of them already. i'm trying to decide if the ud kill was looking for maf or planning this out overnight and trying to shoot his biggest townread? not sure

i don't really want to give the game to the wolf; if town loses i'd rather do it trying to lynch correctly today and being wrong than just letting someone else's decision determine the game for me

if we lynch randomly today i have a 2-in-3 chance of hitting some flavor of scum, and a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the wolf.

(and given that we've now spent like three phases arguing whether or not i'm the wolf, if we assume we've all accepted it isn't me, the rest of you have a 1-in-2 chance of hitting the wolf if you lynch randomly)

--

right now the wolf wants to lynch mafia i think; lynching town gives them a 1-in-2 shot of winning overnight if they kill mafia. if we lynch mafia they just win. they win by lynching mafia and they win if they lynch town and kill maf overnight.

if we no-lynch and they have a 1-in-3 chance of hitting mafia tonight, and if they do, it's 3-way lylo tomorrow. if we no-lynch and they hit town (a 2-in-3 chance), they lose tomorrow. like to win after a no-lynch they need to hit maf tonight and then win 3-way lylo

i feel like this plan is kinda risky from the wolf's perspective? like it seems to me that lynching is better than no-lynching for the wolf

--

for mafia, they need to not get lynched today. if they get lynched today they lose. if town gets lynched today, the wolf has a 1-in-2 shot of hitting mafia overnight. if they hit town, maf wins. if they hit maf, wolf wins. if we lynch today, mafia needs to a) not be lynched and b) not be killed overnight (a 1-in-2 chance) to win

whereas if we no-lynch, it depends on the wolf's shot. the wolf has a 1-in-3 chance of hitting mafia. if they do, mafia loses. if they don't, mafia wins. to win if we no-lynch today, all maf has to do is evade the shot (2-in-3 chance of that happening)

unless i'm really going wrong somewhere this makes like no sense coming from a wolf but makes a lot of sense coming from mafia?

skitter30 · Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:32 pm

like for town to win it's a fairly narrow margin of victory:

-> lynching today: need to lynch the wolf today and the maf tomorrow

-> no-lynching today: need to trust the wolf to shoot maf and then win tomorrow in 3-way

no-lynching is probably marginally easier from a town perspective (only need to lynch correctly once), but means that i have to trust the wolf's reads more than my own. tbf the wolf knows who the wolf so they have a 1-in-3 shot of getting it right.

but like i'd rather lose because i messed up than because the wolf did, if that makes sense?

like, idk, i don't think there's that much of a difference practically in town's ability to win this either way; it's a long-shot both ways and tbh town prob lost this already (probably at the sando mislynch and when i couldn't get you guys to lynch pine yesterday).

like i don't particularly expect town to win at this point tbh, although like i'll do my best, and like, i don't think that no-lynching makes me that much more likely to get it right; it depends on the wolf getting it right and i see no reason to trust them over myself, and i'd rather lose because of my mistakes than the wolf's

--

whereas if you look at this from the perspective of wolf and maf respectively it's blatantly promoting a maf agenda if you actually go through all the possiblities.

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:26 am

i'm not sure which scenario you're referring to.

if we lynch mafia today the wolf wins overnight.

if we lynch town today the wolf wins overnight if they shoot mafia; if they shoot town maf wins (maf wins 1W:1M)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town ovrenight maf wins in 1:1:1 (maf wins 1W:1M:1T)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots maf it's 3 way lylo for the wolf.

lynching today always seems better from the wolf's perspective; they have two chances at finding the mafia: both by the lynch and the kill.

p-edit: yes i took that into account

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:30 am

like lynching gives the wolves a much better shot of winning

no-lynching gives maf a much better shot of winning

i don't think it makes that much difference to town; town's basically fucked either way if all the lynches don't happen in the exact right order and i kinda doubt that's going to happen anyways. the former at least allows me to retain agency.

klick why are you promoting a blatant pro-maf agenda?

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:32 am

i'm having a lot of trouble reconciling you promoting this plan and fumuki screaming for a week at the wolves to shoot maf

i probably really ought to reread day1, sigh

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:40 am

that's my point - it gives town a *slight* edge by removing my agency and depending on the wolf to shoot right. it's not like it drastically increases town's odds of winning or anything

it *does* drastically increase maf's odds of winning tho. it turns it from being wolf-sided to being maf-sided

i'm not promoting an agenda; it's lylo and i'm weighing the pros/cons of the plan you proposed.

and i find it to be very maf-sided.

p-edit: so ur argument is basically that the maf is not incentivized to actually lynch the wolf today? why are they incentivized to go along with a plan that hinges on them getting shot overnight?

from maf's perspective no lynching is optimal tho? their odds of winning increase if we no-lynch.

so you're basically saying you want to work with the maf, who is going to hope the wolf shoots town overnight, and town does thi sin the hopes that the wolf shoots maf overnight?

why doesn't town + maf work together to remove the wolf today?

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:43 am

can you eli5 why you think maf doesn't want to find the wolf today?

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:49 am

like i don't think that no-lynching or lynching drastically changes the odds from town's perspective either way; or at least, it doesn't change the odds enough to make me want to let the wolf decide teh game for me

but i think that we're quibbling over who this benefits from *scum's* perspective which just isn't a good sign.

pine can you explain why klick's plan is wolf indicative? it's maf indicative to me tbh

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:50 am

and i'm not doing anything till ceejay shows up and says what he's thinking

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:09 am

I need to do my due diligence before I vote and check a bunch of things, including but not limited to: vcs, pine, pin, fumuki, probably all of day1, and fumuki meta if I still have patience that point.

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:12 am

I really feel like this plan is more likely to come from maf then the wolf tho.

I have a thing nowish but I'll spend some time on this later today

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:20 pm

In post 1885, Klick wrote:At the very least I understand skitter's thought process. The plan that benefits town most also happens to benefit mafia significantly. Thinking I'm wolf for proposing the plan is illogical. Unless there's significant other reasoning for believing I'm wolf (which both Pine and ceejay have alluded to but failed to elaborate on), the votes on me are rash and unjustified.

right, that's what i'm saying; i can buy an argument for maf!you based on this but i don't understand why they're calling you a wolf. and if you aren't the wolf you oughtn't be lynched today irregardless of your alignment

like this plan is just plain stupid from the wolf's pov imo

ok back to day1 now

pine if you want me to vote klick you need to explain why he's the wolf and/or why this plan comes from the wolf

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:40 pm

hey, that doesn't remind me *at all* of that time when you tried to fake a slip by asking if scum had daytalk

i'm fairly confident you're scum; i'm trying to decide which type

i think the plan is more pro-maf than pro-wolf; i really don't think it comes from the wolf at all

and https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregardless

it's not officially a word i suppose but i like using it anyways for the lols

wait, are you trying to get me to lynch him or not lynch him, i can't tell from that last post?

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:59 pm

]oh i misread that then

pine, you realize i think you're the wolf and you say you think i'm mafia, right?

cuz mafia!me kinda needs to be alive tomorrow to win

skitter30 · Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:09 pm

16 and 17 - indicates that ceejay is prob not a partner with ap

160 - iirc draynth's (klick) major push and only vote was on yankee (ruby). idk if he does that to a partner?

in general there's a lot of casual interaction between AP and pine-slot, especially prominent since ap was doing like nothing earlygame

203 - from mwnn (pine) is just soooo gross in light of ap flipping wolf

228 - ap townreading mwnn?

237 - also really gross from mwnn given that ap is a wolf

254 - does mwnn say this as mafia? i feel like not

also the sequence from 290 - 293 doesn't feel like a super real convo to me

~334 feels like prob not partners between pin + draynth (klick). not super strong tho

369 - really doubt that draynth's one and only vote was on his partner?

410 - ap sheeps mwnn onto ceejay -> indicative of ap/ceejay not being a thing, maybe indicative of ap/mwnn being a thing?

457 - i feel like ap doesn't start a lolpush on partner draynth? like that really isn't a partner vote

504 - i feel like ap doesn't encourage his partner to rep out? idk, maybe he does in a game without daytalk?

625 - bleh why is mwnn making all these ww references?

ok around here fumuki replaced in and i'll pick up from here a bit later

thus far pine's slot makes a lot of sense with AP on associatives and i'm less confident that klick is maf actually?

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:55 am

Pine, I really really dont believe you're town here because of your sando vote ans how you interacted with me yesterday.

Basically what I'm trying to decide is if you're the wolf or if you're maf, in which case I need to figure out which of the other two is the wolf.

From where I am in my read through, I'm pretty sure it's you because brass's associatives with AP are really icky. Like the more I read the more I see that. The main thing holding me back is that I'm not sure if klick's slot makes sense with maf, which is why I'm rereading the end of day1.

I will decide by the end of the day I think because otherwise I can spend like the whole two weeks arguing with myself back and forth and I dont want to do that to either me or to you guys.

Your self-meta doesn't really mean much to me at this point without an exhaustive meta thing that honestly I doubt I'm going to put the effort into; if you really want me to it would prob be a good idea to link those relevant games.

I believe it's possible that you didn't know the wincons; I think that tacking on the 'that would have been helpful in the town wincons' bit was superfluous and an attempt to look LAMIST and/or like a town slip.

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:56 am

*'that would have been helpful in the town role PMs' bit

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 5:58 am

Also I think you're most likely to have nk'd ruby that night of the 3 of you tbh, especially since it looks like fumuki's slot was kinda empty overnight.

Like I'm having a lot of trouble parsing who makes that kill knowing that I didn't.

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:18 am

I guess the other thing holding me back is that I've been telegraphing o wanted to lynch you since day3 twilight and if you're the wolf I really dont know why I'm alive her

/sigh

I really wish you lot had listened to me yesterday so that we could have lynched pine already

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:30 am

Yes but that still doesnt explain the n3 kill.

Tbh I'm very surprised that I'm not dead yet.

You replaced in at day4 daystart, right, so you (i mean you and not your slot) couldn't have made the kill?

Honestly I'm very surprised that I'm still here and I'm wondering if that's an indicator that my read on pine is wrong.

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:42 am

I really don't know if fumuki makes a whole thing about wanting the wolves to kill maf as maf

but his dayplay was very focused on lynching wolves

and he was focusing on telling the wolves *not* to lynch the seer

brass's posting on page 28 is icky

rereading fumuki i'm kinda townreading him. maybe it's town!klick, wolf!cj, maf!pine? that's concordant with me not being dead yet since i've been townreading cj for a while now. i'm having a lot of trouble seeing fumuki's day1 posting as coming from maf tbh

givens: pine is some type of scum.

lesser level of given: klick probably not maf despite his plan from fumuki and from draynth's one and only major push being on yankee (ruby)

this gives me: klick can be town/wolf; cj can be town/wolf/maf; pine can be wolf/maf

if i throw in the condition that cj can't be maf from pin's push on him (which i need to verify from the end of day1 when i get there), i have:

klick can be town/wolf; cj can be town/wolf; pine can be wolf/maf ----> pine has to be maf because no one else is. but brass's associatives with ap are icky

like posts like 787-789 just don't come from maf i think

ap siding with fumiki in the sando v fumuki thing

i can see the convo between fumuki and ap in 800-803 as coming from partners tho. rest of the convo on that page too

ap joining the espeonage wagon on brass's behest is meh

i think fumuki actually believes what he's saying even tho i think he's wrong about most of it

fumuki probably isn't partners with pin

In post 895, pinturicchio wrote:My townreads at this moment are
Sando
,
skitter
,
UD
and
myself
, so hit me up to see who wants to be which Beatle (I know I know, but someone has to be Ringo).
MWNN
is Brian Epstein and I'm looking for our George Martin. It's pretty obvious that the Seer will be Ravi Shankar when confirmed.

ok this is an interesting post from pin. he was right on sando, me, and ud, the only unflipped name is pine-slot. partner-indicative i think

wow my reads were bad in 898

fumuki-pin convo on page 38 prob doesn't come from partners

so everyone alive besides for myself was on the esp wagon, which means both wolves and one maf were on it

pin's push on ceejay isn't as strong as i remembered it being, but i still kinda doubt that he decides to end the day voting his partner when he could have voted me or esp

ceejay's ap interactions aren't as strong as i remember them being either; could be partners actually? bleh 1293 really isn't a bussing vote i think. but 1256 is actually pretty compelling for cj/ap; i forgot about that. all three of me/esp/ceejay are very unlikely to be town and ap did promote the esp thing over ceejay when ceejay's wagon was heating up

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:45 am

OK, I stopepd mid day2 and my conclusions are:

-> pin's probably not scum with ceejay

-> fumuki is really never maf here from dayplay + draynth pushing yankee

-> that means pine is maf (also explains why i'm not dead)

-> fumuki overall is kinda townie even tho he's wrong about like everything

-> ceejay doesn't have great associatives with ap on a reread.

so given all of these my best understanding of the game is wolf!cj, maf!pine, town!klick

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:48 am

and wolf!ceejay is also supported by me not being dead given that i was townreading him

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:50 am

i hope this doesn't fuck the game over

VOTE: cj

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:53 am

i'm not as confident in that as i want to be

but the wolf is either cj or klick i think

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:59 am

waiting for other people to post is kinda skeeving me out actually given mylo

UNVOTE:

till other people come online and i see what they think about that theory

i'm voting cj in spirit tho

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:54 am

presumably so we can have this convo?

if i'm wrong talk to me about where i'm going wrong

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:23 pm

But then why not lynch him with me yesterday?

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:02 pm

i'm a she; i think we went through this like six times this game already

i'm like 60-40 that it's ceejay over klick (and i'm like ~90% that you're maf)

why isn't it ceejay?

yeah i'm basically going to be stubborn till i get the info i need to decide cuz all three of you need my vote to lynch anybody not named me since i'm not getting lynched today given that literally nobody is claiming they think i'm the wolf right now

if i'm maf at this point really no reason at this point not to just vote for a no-lynch with klick (only needs two votes) and bet that i don't get killed overnight and win the endgame.

i'm not tho and i actually want to solve the game and you lot are being kinda unhelpful

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:04 pm

like pine if you want me to vote klick you need to explain why you think they're the wolf and why ceejay isn't (emphasis on why ceejay isn't)

i'm pretty confident that you're mafia which means by definition your goals are not my own and if you want me to do what you want you need to explain why you're right and i'm wrong

otherwise i see little reason to trust your opinion here

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:07 pm

like i'm confused why you think maf!me is drawing this out instead of just going 'hey klick, yeah, i agree with your math!', vote for a no-lynch, and gamble that i don't get killed overnight

like i don't know what you think i'm trying to accomplish here other than like ... solving the game

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:15 pm

In post 1866, skitter30 wrote:i'm not sure which scenario you're referring to.

if we lynch mafia today the wolf wins overnight.

if we lynch town today the wolf wins overnight if they shoot mafia; if they shoot town maf wins (maf wins 1W:1M)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town ovrenight maf wins in 1:1:1 (maf wins 1W:1M:1T)

if we no-lynch and the wolf shoots maf it's 3 way lylo for the wolf.

lynching today always seems better from the wolf's perspective; they have two chances at finding the mafia: both by the lynch and the kill.

p-edit: yes i took that into account

like so long as the wolf avoids getting lynched today it seems much better for the wolf to lynch today than no-lynch - they have two shots at winning if we lynch - by either lynching mafia or lynching town and then shooting mafia

i'm having a lot of trouble understanding why this plan comes from the wolf tbh; no-lynching seems to put the wolf in a much worse position

i'm willilng to entertain the notion that it comes from maf but i really just don't think a wolf proposes this

skitter30 · Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:38 pm

yes, i, as maf, purposefully decide to stall for time to enact a no-lynch instead of just taking the opportunity to do so at daystart, great plan!

i have no idea why i'm 'trying to shift the focus to anyone else' given that i'm literally never getting lynched today; i don't *have* to shift the focus to anyone else right now

and idk why you think that maf!me doesn't want klick lynched here -
between the four of us i'm fairly confident in my ability to avoid the lynch even if i were up for it today ( i did just that at least twice this game already

); i really don't think i get lynched tomorrow in me/you/cj and honestly i think it's asinine that you think that would happen here with town!cj who's been quite vocal against lynching me over the past two days. like i really have no idea why you think that lylo *isn't* good for me and why, as maf, i don't just grab that oppurtunity to hammer and run with a lylo against the guy i've been trying to lynch for like 2.5 dayphases and the guy who thinks on associatives i'm not scum here

and i've been expecting to be dead for like two days now so the nk isn't exactly what i'm worried about; if i was trying to avoid the nk as maf after pin got nk'd and even more so after ruby got nk'd ... this isn't how i'd have been playing the last several phases

like what i'm doing here really has like no maf-motivation if you actually think about what you're saying; your accusations don't really makes sense in this gamestate

skitter30 · Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:38 am

Kinda need to know what kick thinks about ceejay

skitter30 · Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:03 am

In post 1921, ceejayvinoya wrote:I don't understand why you'd pair me with AP. I thought he was pretty much sus ever since D1. The only thing that stopped me from this is the worst telling me to back off because the way he was playing at that point is NAI.

a) all of those posts were from early game (ie occured in a not-critical time in the game)

b) none of these posts are pushing him hard and are easily said by scumpartners

--

In post 1922, ceejayvinoya wrote:Also I'm seeing that he's equally willing to have me lynched.

voting you in the 400s and switching off of you when your wagon was heating up and at ~L-2 is not indicative of 'equally willing to have you lynched'

saying that he thinks you're my partner after esp flips scum isn't clearing and i've seen scum!him tell me: after beefster flips scum, i guarantee that both of his partners are in {montosh, skitter, laser}, where beef/me/laser were all town and montosh was his partner

skitter30 · Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:11 am

basically:

-> you're not maf because pin wanted to lynch you day1 and he started that push

-> klick isn't maf because fumuki got personally offended that nobody was listening to his 'werewolves need to kill maf at night plan'

so pine is maf

i really don't know how to figure out which of the two of you is the wolf

-> i don't think that wolf!klick proposes this plan? it's dumb from a wolf's pov

-> wagonomics day1 point to you given that the three leading wagons were me/you/esp and i don't think all of them were on town and ap switched off of you to esp at that point

-> i don't know if you make the night3 kill but i'm wondering if last night's kill is because i was townreading you. the kills don't fully make sense from anyone tbh

i don't really know how to put all the pieces together so everything makes sense and this makes the most sense to me

the question is really if/when klick will say anything and how stubborn i'm going to be and whether or not i'll just give up because i don't have the motivation to convince all three of you

i'd rather be right than win but i don't think i can vote someone i don't think is the wolf; it's tantamount to throwing to me

like voting not-wolf!klick basically loses the game for town and i just don't think it's him right now

skitter30 · Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:40 am

maf!you wins if the wolf shoots town, which is what i think you're trying to make happen tbh

my play makes no sense as maf today, but do what you gotta do

i really don't know how to resolve this game satisfactorily

VOTE: ceejay

this is my best bet

i could well be wrong but this makes the most sense to me and what feels most right

skitter30 · Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:32 pm

In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.

klick i kinda need this to happen at some point

UNVOTE: for now

skitter30 · Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:38 pm

In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"

i'm not townreading him. i'm not-wolf-reading him, and those aren't the same thing

i really can't imagine the wolf proposing that though, it's a dumb plan from the wolf's pov. it's at best a play to get townread that could backfire horribly (like it got him two votes right off the bat)

--

In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.

i don't know if he sheeps his partner onto a mislynch; i kinda doubt that he does

if you're town all the eod1 wagons were on town, which i find unlikely.

ap popped in to promote the esp lynch just as your wagon was heating up and was at ~l-2; i found that to be partner-indicative, yes. yes i would think the same thing if esp were in your place and he had switched off of esp to you there. but that's not what happened or what he did and i have to take into account what actually happened.

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In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?

i realy have no no idea why anyone killed rubyred; i suspect the duck kill was wolves trying to maf-hunt.

there was absolutely no indication that i was going to switch away from my townread of you; i didn't come to that point till like three days ago irl; wolf!you had no reason to suspect i'd do that; it's quite possible you thought that i was going to continue pushing pine based on yesterday

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:27 am

In post 1932, ceejayvinoya wrote:You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?

huh, i didn't remember making those posts lolololol, touche

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In post 1933, ceejayvinoya wrote:
In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.
See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.

I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.

i'm kinda concerned that it's mylo and he's posting elsewhere on site and not here and not like following up on anything

i specifically not-wolfread him tho for his plan tho, but it isn't super strong enough for me to clear him entirely. i'm fairly confident he isn't maf because of fumuki tho

and i'm fairly confident that you aren't maf because of pin

which means by poe pine has to be mafia (he is literally never flipping town here; the real question is if he's the wolf or maf and i'm ~90% that he's maf and i wish that you lot would have helped me lynch him yesterday)

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:09 pm

/sigh

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:13 pm

i'm not entirely sure that the mod has checked the game since wednesday tbh, given that that's when the last vc was and klick said he pm'd the mod 'a while ago'

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:13 pm

i really want this game to be over already; it's been going on for like two months now

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:15 pm

like the simplest solution for me to end the game would be to just vote klick-slot given you and cj but that feels like throwing almost cuz idk if they're the wolf and i don't think i can vote someone in mylo that i'm not confident is scum just to end the game

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:21 pm

this game has frustrated me greatly

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:04 pm

yes but at most one of you is town so trusting you doesn't seem like the best idea?

i really hate leaving the game unsolved and i hate feeling like i'm just giving up because i can't be fucked dealing with yet another replacement

like this feels like an even worse ending than those two games i got hammered as town in lylo while on v/la because i'm actively making a decision to try not to win it

but at a certain point i have to decide if solving this is really worth another two weeks or whatever and it really isn't; it's not fair to me or to you guys to do that, or to whoever replaces in

i just feel like i'm quasi-throwing tho :/

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:24 pm

i'm basically trying to decide if i should vote to my wincon which is probably voting for a no-lynch, which will make the endgame that much more painful given the replacement thing, or if i should just vote klick, which isn't really for my wincon i think but will make the rest of the game easier for the rest of us depending on what he flips especially given the lack of mod presence

i'm probably going to be voting klick because i don't want to drag this out but i have to basically talk myself into it because doing so feels wrong to me

skitter30 · Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:34 pm

VOTE: klick-slot

i'm doing this to hasten the end of the game given the replacement thing and the mod thing

pine is scum

cj > klick

i reserve the right to say i told you so if/when i'm right

i don't think it's fair or right to drag this out another however long to any of the current players or to the theoretical replacement, as this game has been incredibly frustrating already thus far.

i apologize to town if this loses it

and this is literally the single-most unsatisfactory vote i have ever cast

cj if you're the wolf it should be hilariously transparent that i'm town and you win if you kill pine, and i'd rather you win than him tbh

also this is just a game so idk why this is bothering me so much

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:53 am

um, no offense, but who are you?

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:06 am

pine if you're actually town here ....

and yeah if he was maf than the game is over and i guess the wolfteam of ap/cj wins

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:10 am

i'm just going to say i'm a *little* bit annoyed about how this game played out

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:14 am

sigh, i tried.

although tbf i wanted to lynch pine yesterday so i guess i didn't do all that great

the only thing i really got was that ap was scum and that ruby wasn't town but there was a guilty on ap on ruby got nk'd

i at least got it right in 4p and i was right about klick's plan being insanely pro-maf and never coming from a wolf

although if that was the case and pine had magically agreed to cj i prob would have voted pine tomorrow in 3way if cj had actually happened, so we would have lost anyways

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:15 am

In post 1962, ofrhz wrote:This setup looks super fun but challenging for town to win

yeah it's a lot of fun but basically impossible unless all the right things happened in just the right order and end-game is like impossible because there's only a handful of people who all want different things

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:16 am

i guess i'm going to have to wait like another week to get into the dead and/or scum threads

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:40 am

um yeah that bothered me a little bit but i decided i wanted the game to end more than i wanted to win

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:59 am

gg cj, you did good

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:36 pm

Yeah this was one of the most frustrating games I've ever played tbh.

I'm adding this to the list of xylos that I got right but lost anyways.

I think I'm personally 4-1 in xylo but I lost all of them, which is mildly frustrating.

skitter30 · Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:24 pm

In post 1979, Sando wrote:The no-lynch gambit was a massive spotlight of "I'm Mafia", continuing to read Pine as Mafia through it was an indication of just how scummy Pine acted all game, it didn't make it a good gambit.

yeah this basically.

like that doesn't came from a wolf like ever since it blatantly tips the game from being wolf-sided to maf-sided, irregardless of whether or not it incidentally slightly benefited town. like the benefit to town was so slight that it was basically meaningless and at a certain point i gave up trying to point these things out because no one was listening to me

yuurei you did a really good job shouting at the wolves to kill maf because it made me doubt klick!maf despite the plan

skitter30 · Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:07 am

In post 1983, Klick wrote:I find this amusing because, like I said, I'd have proposed the exact same thing as town.

yes, but my point is that it almost never came from the wolf, and thus you shouldn't have been a lynch candidate today - like i pointed out it was insanely pro-maf and marginally pro-town, but which of the two alignments it actually came from could/should have been sorted out tomorrow after finding the wolf

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In post 1990, UglyDuck wrote:Also, Skitter - a free and earned compliment - you are pretty much the most outstanding player I have played with on MS so far. Very good game.

In post 1992, the worst wrote:
In post 1990, UglyDuck wrote:Also, Skitter - a free and earned compliment - you are pretty much the most outstanding player I have played with on MS so far. Very good game.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
will second with extreme prejudice and many chevrons

tyty both :)

(those are chevrons? i thought they were called carats. til.)

this game also reinforced to me that my actual reads are kinda meh, and that i tend to get tunnel-y and that it's hard for me to break out of that early-game, which leads to mislynches cuz i get stubborn (sorry sando + duckling). what i'm actually good at is reading momentum + wagons + associatives + understanding the gamestate in a holisitic sense and figuring out where scum is based on that. also that trusting my gut in endgame after doing my due diligence works fairly well