Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5
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Now seems like a good time for an important PSA: I will be using my standard replacement meta here. I will read mod PMs, mod ISO, predecessor ISO, and most recent 5-10 pages, in that order. I will then follow up on ISOs of people I find important.
You can help me by giving me a summary of what’s happened so far. I will of course take this with a grain of subjective salt, so focus less on your reads and more on concrete facts like claims and actions."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Oh yeah. Fuggo deffffnitely scum. I'm thinking Wolf. N_M just being N_M.
Let's go Maf-hunting now:
PineTown
skitter30
Sando
the worstSeer
ceejayvinoya
TheYankeeReaper
UglyDuckScum of some kind
Not_Mafia
APWolf
Draynth
That leaves us with two more scum in:
skitter30
Sando
ceejayvinoya
RubyRed
Not_Mafia
Fumuki
My gut says N_M is just doing his usual contrarian bullshit Towngame.
The ceejay wagon suggest not-Maf (three Townies and a flipped Maf)
Pintu's ISO suggest Sando not-Maf. Too much hard defending and pocketing
Pintu's softer and less methodical defense of UD suggest UD is Maf
Pintu's treatment of Skitter suggests either partner or pocket
Not sure how to regard Pintu/Fumuki interaction
skitter30 - Suspiciois
Sando - Not Maf
ceejayvinoya - Not Maf
RubyRed - Unknown
Not_Mafia - Town
Fumuki - Unknown
Best guess is {Pintu, Skitter, unknown} {AP, UD}
VOTE: AP"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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- Pine
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- Pine
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In post 1517, Pine wrote:I'm pretty hard TRing NM. I'm fine lynching someone other than AP if and ONLY if we think they're Wolf."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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I want to lynch Ruby Red for calling this out. I was going to out this obvious gambit tomorrow, but NM was clearly trying to bait the kill away from TW. That's why he's Town, and why I was trying to support the gambit.In post 1543, Ruby Red wrote:nm is baiting the nk
It wouldn't work against any of the more pro players, but...no offense to anyone, but there's some newbies and lowbies in this game.
Calling this out makes me think Ruby is trying to point it out to scumbuddies or something.
Do scum have daychat?"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Asking about something that's public information is never a slip in any context - it's laziness. *Asserting* scum have daychat when they publicly don't could be construed as a slip or an attempt to fabricate one, but just asking is merely lazy.In post 1548, skitter30 wrote:I thought nm was trolling tbh. I don't really think anyone took his cc seriously in any sense
like I think it's fairly blatant that tw is seer and that nm is, like, not
and I think AP thinks TW is the seer, which is pretty much what's important here
scum don't have daychat in this setup
ftr I think you asking that might be you trying to fabricate a townslip"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Sando has a point. Fuggo has a much higher chance of being Mafia than Wolf.
Quick worst case scenario math:
8 alive
D4 - 5:2:1 assume ML
N4 - 4:2:1 assume Townie kill
D5 - 3:2:1
N5 (D5 ML) - 2:2:1 Townie kill produces 1:2:1 endgame (maybe? Depends on tiebreaker ruleset, irrelevant for Town, Town loses). If maf kill, produces 2:1:1 LYLO, must lynch wolf
N5 (D5 MafLynch) - 3:1:1 Townie kill produces 2:1:1 LYLO, see above
I think we're best off trying to lynch wolf today, but if we ML and have a Townie NKed, we need to lynch Maf tomorrow"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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But you're like 90% Mafia-scum.
Obvious attempt to discredit reasonable statement is obvious. Not_Mafia is probably not Mafia (at least not w/ UD)
Also I've decided that 'Fuggo' etc is a bit too aggro to use with a newcomer to the site. UglyDuck, we want to keep you around and do not intend any actual condescension. New folks are the lifeblood of the community, and just because you are transparently scum this game doesn't mean we don't like you"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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@Mod: Please prod Fumuki. They haven't posted all phase.
Also holy shit, I just ISOed Sando, whom I've had difficulty getting a read on, and the associatives with AP are *outstanding*. Early baseless Townread, works in coordination with AP on D1, ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!, goes after other people.
This is our WW. Also, he was *obsessed* with the Seer role, even before it was revealed. There were FORTY-FOUR references to the Seer on the first page of his ISO, most of it before TW claimed. Sando views the Seer as a threat. Check this post out:
He's trying to preemptively muddy the waters and cloud any Seer claims...which is exactly what he does later. TW claims Seer, and Sando practically ignores it to tilt at other windmills.In post 640, Sando wrote:
Rofl, out of CJ, NM, Pintu and Duckling, the person who flaked out wants to accuse me of being different from there?In post 619, Fumuki wrote:SANDO REALLY, BUT FRICKING REALLY MAY NEED ROPE
Not only that, if I compare to Open 720 and comprove that he's off, I'll be asking for some explanations to some players here that played there as well and didn't say anything about him
Where's that "proof", game going too fast for you to post it?
Your analysis of wolf-game is flat out wrong by the way.
While we're on the topic (and this might help you realise the error of your ways Fumuki) of 720, I'm putting it out there now: Do not CC as seer, especially D1. Scum and Wolf optimal strategy is going to nearly always be claim seer, if you're the seer, let them claim and just quietly go about your business. If you die, we shall avenge you, promise.
VOTE: Sando"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Ummmm, I really want to, but Werewolf continues to take priority.
Playerlist:
PineTown
skitter30
ceejayvinoyaTown?
UglyDuckMafia
Not_MafiaProbably Town
Fumuki - Being replaced
I dunno, PoE suggests skitter. Fumuki was too disengaged to make a precision strike on Red Ruby. Need to ISO skitter and AP together."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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HmmmIn post 1784, ceejayvinoya wrote:Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.
That's actually a pretty solid point.
UNVOTE:"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Ugh I don't know.
Ceejay's point about you suggests that you're not Wolf, which suggests HE's not wolf. UD is Mafia. I'm still TRing NM. That PoE's Klick, but I don't actually SR Klick. That said, I don't read ANYTHING from that slot, so it would be better than nothing. If we could get rid of the Wolf, I wouldn't mind getting lynched myself to eliminate the possibility, but it's strictly best to lynch Wolf today.
VOTE: Klick?"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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Dude, I'm not scum unbunch your panties. I'm pretty sure we're fucked, though. We're at 2:1:1. Lynching WW is the only acceptable answer at this point; lynching Mafia sends us to night 2:1, endgame 1:1 at daybreak.
Okay.
I'm Mafia. I'm pretty certain the last WW is Klick."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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lol wtf this is DEFINITELY wolf.In post 1855, Klick wrote:I propose a no lynch today.
Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.
Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.
Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.
No lynching has a 2/3 chance of Town immediately losing. The only way Town wins in a no-lynch is if WW shoots Mafia, and then win a 2:1 LYLO. Klick's suggestion that the Wolf loses if they don't shoot Mafia is completely and demonstrably false - 2:1 LYLO is in no way bad for the Wolf.
Putting my money where my mouth is.
VOTE: Klick
Pretty sure Skitter is our last remaining Mafia, who honestly believes I'm wolfscum. That panicked 'what the fuck is he doing fakeclaiming Mafia' reaction is *exactly* what I was fishing for."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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- Pine
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- Pine
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Wolf!me doesn't care who or whether we lynch. Wolf!me is confident he can NK the only actual threat. Wolf!me does not go out on a limb like this, there's no profit in it. I'm an advocate of "Do whatever you would as Town" scumplay, but only if it's not LYLO. Wolf!Pine shuts up and accepts whatever plan lets me shoot Mafia.In post 1891, skitter30 wrote:]oh i misread that then
pine, you realize i think you're the wolf and you say you think i'm mafia, right?
cuz mafia!me kinda needs to be alive tomorrow to win
Also the misunderstanding regarding wincons wasn't faked - I was a replace-in, and missed that caveat."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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I'm like 80% sure it's Wolf!Klick + skitter!Mafia.
Skitter is dragging his feet because he knows he'd lose in 2:1 LYLO, and is holding out for a Town lynch or NL to take his chances with the Wolf's shot. After all, the Wolf has to shoot correctly or it loses.
Yeah. This kind of sucks, because Skitter can just dig in and refuse to comply. It's probably his best chance...a miss at night gives him the win."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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I am genuinely sorry about this. It was in no way intentional.In post 1914, skitter30 wrote:i'm a she; i think we went through this like six times this game alreadyl
The way I figure, you're stalling for time, trying to shift the focus to someone else. You don't want to NL right now, you think you'll eat the NK. You don't want to lynch Klick, you think you'll get lynched tomorrow. From that perspective, stalling is the best bet.
By the way, you're kind of proving my point on why ceejay is Town. It would be pretty easy for scum!ceejay to justify a No Lynch vote, right now, as there's no way he gets NKed or lynched if he did. That leaves me with you and Klick; of the two, Klick is acting transparently Wolfish. Ergo, you are Mafiascum.
Game solved."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- Pine
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You know what?
I'm changing my mind.
I'm still pretty sure that ceejay is Town, Skitter is Mafia, and Klick is the Wolf. However, I also think that Klick knows this. From Klick's perspective, they *must* shoot Mafia tonight, or Mafia wins. Their best chance is to shoot Mafia!Skitter, and hope they can convince ceejay that the Wolf is me. That's probably the path of least resistance to a Wolf win here.
Ordinarily, I would fight tooth and nail against any plan which forfeits Town agency, but I'm reasonably confident this plays out to give everyone agency on D6.
VOTE: No Lynch
This is a gamble, but it's one I'm comfortable making."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare - Pine
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