Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5
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You know what?
I'm changing my mind.
I'm still pretty sure that ceejay is Town, Skitter is Mafia, and Klick is the Wolf. However, I also think that Klick knows this. From Klick's perspective, they *must* shoot Mafia tonight, or Mafia wins. Their best chance is to shoot Mafia!Skitter, and hope they can convince ceejay that the Wolf is me. That's probably the path of least resistance to a Wolf win here.
Ordinarily, I would fight tooth and nail against any plan which forfeits Town agency, but I'm reasonably confident this plays out to give everyone agency on D6.
VOTE: No Lynch
This is a gamble, but it's one I'm comfortable making."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- skitter30
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maf!you wins if the wolf shoots town, which is what i think you're trying to make happen tbh
my play makes no sense as maf today, but do what you gotta do
i really don't know how to resolve this game satisfactorily
VOTE: ceejay
this is my best bet
i could well be wrong but this makes the most sense to me and what feels most right- Klick
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And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.
Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.- ceejayvinoya
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He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"In post 1924, skitter30 wrote: -> i don't think that wolf!klick proposes this plan? it's dumb from a wolf's pov
I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.-> wagonomics day1 point to you given that the three leading wagons were me/you/esp and i don't think all of them were on town and ap switched off of you to esp at that point
Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?-> i don't know if you make the night3 kill but i'm wondering if last night's kill is because i was townreading you. the kills don't fully make sense from anyone tbh
i don't really know how to put all the pieces together so everything makes sense and this makes the most sense to meCeejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst- ceejayvinoya
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Like I also have a basic understanding of if you and the guy you TR both make to lylo/mylo, it's likely he's scum bringing you along. If you weren't so dissociated from being wolf, i'd be suspicious of you.Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst- skitter30
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klick i kinda need this to happen at some pointIn post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.
Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.
UNVOTE: for now- skitter30
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i'm not townreading him. i'm not-wolf-reading him, and those aren't the same thingIn post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"
i really can't imagine the wolf proposing that though, it's a dumb plan from the wolf's pov. it's at best a play to get townread that could backfire horribly (like it got him two votes right off the bat)
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i don't know if he sheeps his partner onto a mislynch; i kinda doubt that he doesIn post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.
if you're town all the eod1 wagons were on town, which i find unlikely.
ap popped in to promote the esp lynch just as your wagon was heating up and was at ~l-2; i found that to be partner-indicative, yes. yes i would think the same thing if esp were in your place and he had switched off of esp to you there. but that's not what happened or what he did and i have to take into account what actually happened.
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i realy have no no idea why anyone killed rubyred; i suspect the duck kill was wolves trying to maf-hunt.In post 1928, ceejayvinoya wrote:Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?
there was absolutely no indication that i was going to switch away from my townread of you; i didn't come to that point till like three days ago irl; wolf!you had no reason to suspect i'd do that; it's quite possible you thought that i was going to continue pushing pine based on yesterday- ceejayvinoya
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In post 1823, skitter30 wrote:
i am very very very confident that he isn't maf, but not as strongly confident that he isn't a wolf. my hesitance about clearing him for being a wolf is significantly less strong than my suspicion of pine/nm, and i really can't imagine a universe where i vote him today.In post 1764, skitter30 wrote:ceejay - town because he isn't maf (pin's preferred lynch day1) and isn't a wolf (hopped onto the ap thing before the guilty was outed)
You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?In post 1824, skitter30 wrote:that was worded badly.
basically i really don't think he's ever maf here.
he probably isn't a wolf but i'm not as confident on that as on him not being a maf.
i am significantly more confident on scum in {pine/nm} than i am on him possibly being a wolf.
i'll probably go back and reread the ap associatives at some point to remind myself of why i was reading that so stronglyCeejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst- ceejayvinoya
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See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.
Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.
I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst- Pine
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huh, i didn't remember making those posts lolololol, toucheIn post 1932, ceejayvinoya wrote:You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?
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i'm kinda concerned that it's mylo and he's posting elsewhere on site and not here and not like following up on anythingIn post 1933, ceejayvinoya wrote:
See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.In post 1927, Klick wrote:And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.
Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.
I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.
i specifically not-wolfread him tho for his plan tho, but it isn't super strong enough for me to clear him entirely. i'm fairly confident he isn't maf because of fumuki tho
and i'm fairly confident that you aren't maf because of pin
which means by poe pine has to be mafia (he is literally never flipping town here; the real question is if he's the wolf or maf and i'm ~90% that he's maf and i wish that you lot would have helped me lynch him yesterday)- Klick
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- Pine
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yes but at most one of you is town so trusting you doesn't seem like the best idea?
i really hate leaving the game unsolved and i hate feeling like i'm just giving up because i can't be fucked dealing with yet another replacement
like this feels like an even worse ending than those two games i got hammered as town in lylo while on v/la because i'm actively making a decision to try not to win it
but at a certain point i have to decide if solving this is really worth another two weeks or whatever and it really isn't; it's not fair to me or to you guys to do that, or to whoever replaces in
i just feel like i'm quasi-throwing tho :/- Pine
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Here's where your reasoning breaks down - even if you think one of us is Maf, you'd still be willing to get rid of the wolf. Again, you're holding out for a different answer. Fine, I get it. But my refusal to do anything but vote Klick or NL means you're not getting that."Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"
Act 3, Scene 1 ofJulius Caesar, by W. Shakespeare- skitter30
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i'm basically trying to decide if i should vote to my wincon which is probably voting for a no-lynch, which will make the endgame that much more painful given the replacement thing, or if i should just vote klick, which isn't really for my wincon i think but will make the rest of the game easier for the rest of us depending on what he flips especially given the lack of mod presence
i'm probably going to be voting klick because i don't want to drag this out but i have to basically talk myself into it because doing so feels wrong to me- skitter30
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VOTE: klick-slot
i'm doing this to hasten the end of the game given the replacement thing and the mod thing
pine is scum
cj > klick
i reserve the right to say i told you so if/when i'm right
i don't think it's fair or right to drag this out another however long to any of the current players or to the theoretical replacement, as this game has been incredibly frustrating already thus far.
i apologize to town if this loses it
and this is literally the single-most unsatisfactory vote i have ever cast
cj if you're the wolf it should be hilariously transparent that i'm town and you win if you kill pine, and i'd rather you win than him tbh
also this is just a game so idk why this is bothering me so much - skitter30
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