SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Punreader]

Yes, we should all post our rankings before EOD.

I am right now with Chara and the worst getting 10s and Espeonage and Taly with 0
MariaR at a 5.

Unsure where to put everyone else.

It's interesting that Fire Assassin said this, and yet didn't follow through with it. It's also interesting that the stated reads don't match, given:

Nahdia (10)
Fire Assassin (10)
Chara (10)
MariaR (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
the worst (7)
Shoshin (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Pine (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
PenguinPower (4) (ONE OF THESE IS A FIVE)
Punreader (3)
Taly (2)
Lovebird (1)
Espeonage (0)
Vaxkiller (0)
NicoRobin (0)

However,

that having been said

, in spite of his rankings not matching his stated rankings, the sentiment behind them

is

a perfect match. Almost all the players he ranked low are players he expressed some negative sentiment towards; almost all the players he ranked high are players he expressed positive sentiment towards.

On an unrelated side-note, coming away from this iso I felt like Fire Assassin's iso reeked of pun, but I maintain optimal play is still the course of action where we don't lynch him

today

.

[Espeonage]

Please talk me though why you don't want to lynch someone you think is going to flip scum?

[Punreader]

So it's a little hard to tell given MariaR stated she would lie about her rankings prior to D2 as to obfuscate them from the pun, however,

Punreader (10)
MariaR (10)
Espeonage (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
the worst (8)
PenguinPower (7)
Chara (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Taly (4)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (3)
Pine (2)
Vaxkiller (1)
Nahdia (0)
Lovebird (0)
NicoRobin (0)

Having isoed her, I can see most of these lining up fairly well to the sentiment behind her posts.

[Punreader]

Please talk me though why you don't want to lynch someone you think is going to flip scum?

How many times do I need to quote it?

Pun

, can you give me your thoughts on

Fire/Maria

?

I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.

I'm highly suspect of

Fire

at this point

Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both

are

town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.

This is unchanged. Reevaluation has determined he is significantly more likely to be pun than yesterday, but he is not absolutely certain to be pun. And on the off chance he is town (after all, our track record in nailing down pun thusfar has not been stellar so who's to say this read is right when prior punreads have been wrong?), then this will sort itself out overnight when the pun are put up against two cop investigations the same night.

MariaR could not investigate last night.
MariaR

can

investigate tonight.
And if Fire Assassin fails to produce an investigative result tomorrow for any reason, we lynch him for it on the spot.

It's simply a matter of optimal play.

Optimal play is to lynch Fire Assassin tomorrow.

I do feel he is pun, but I also feel that objectively speaking, the optimal play is to wait one day before lynching him.

[Commander Shepard]

So it's a little hard to tell given MariaR stated she would lie about her rankings prior to D2 as to obfuscate them from the pun, however,

Punreader (10)
MariaR (10)
Espeonage (10)
TehBrawlGuy (9)
the worst (8)
PenguinPower (7)
Chara (6)
Screenplay (6)
DeasVail (5)
Dunnstral (5)
Taly (4)
Shoshin (4)
Fire Assassin (3)
Pine (2)
Vaxkiller (1)
Nahdia (0)
Lovebird (0)
NicoRobin (0)

Having isoed her, I can see most of these lining up fairly well to the sentiment behind her posts.

...Isn’t that a bad thing?

That means like her reads haven’t changed at all despite having myself Lovebird and Nico as scum when Lovebird and Nico are flipped town and I know I am town.

[Commander Shepard]

Like why is Maria R town?
I am highly suspicious that she is “auto BP”. Seems like she is trying to make an excuse for why she is still alive in advance.

[Punreader]

...Isn’t that a bad thing?

I'm not looking at past D1.

I'm referring to D1 specifically.

[Punreader]

Taly (10)
Shoshin (10)
Chara (10)
the worst (9)
TehBrawlGuy (8)
Screenplay (7)
DeasVail (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Punreader (5)
Vaxkiller (5)
Nahdia (4)
NicoRobin (4)
Espeonage (3)
Fire Assassin (2)
Pine (1)
MariaR (0)
Lovebird (0)
PenguinPower (0)

Some of these match up to stances.
Some.
Most? Not particularly; Shoshin's stated stances are vastly different than what these rankings would imply.

[Vaxkiller]

OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf

[Punreader]

Engage with me.

What're your top 3 scumreads/townreads at the moment?

Didn’t I just give this?

Low points
The Worst
Action

Screenplay (10)
Taly (10)
TehBrawlGuy (10)
Chara (9)
Shoshin (8)
the worst (7)
Vaxkiller (6)
Dunnstral (6)
Fire Assassin (5)
Nahdia (5)
Pine (4)
Punreader (4)
Lovebird (3)
NicoRobin (2)
MariaR (1)
DeasVail (0)
Espeonage (0)
PenguinPower (0)

I realize he can't answer for this but I'm quite curious what changed on the worst and Nahdia's slot, here.

[Punreader]

OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf

I'm also town and also shot Commander Shepherd last night.

This seems to be fairly good indication that Commander Shepherd had a protective action used on him.

[Punreader]

LOVEBIRD <3

This seems an unusual reaction to have to someone you're planning on rating zero and ended the day on before they could post. (the worst was one of the hammering votes on ending the day, and yet did so before Lovebird could even give love.)

I kinda agree with you about read lists generally but in this game specifically were kinda obligated to do one at EOD1. I was thinking having a quick snippet of where your mind is at might help me calibrate my read on you but your response is understandable.

In spite of stating that reads lists are something we should be obligated to do at the end of D1, he did not do so.

Shoshin is by far the player that interests me the most atm.

I like her. What's on your mind?

This is the latest I can find on Shoshin, and yet...

Taly (10)
the worst (10)
Chara (10)
Espeonage (9)
MariaR (8)
Nahdia (7)
TehBrawlGuy (6)
DeasVail (6)
Punreader (5)
PenguinPower (5)
Pine (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
Shoshin (3)
Dunnstral (2)
Fire Assassin (1)
Lovebird (0)
Screenplay (0)
NicoRobin (0)

This would imply he didn't really like her.

Why is there such a large dissonance between his stated stances and his actual ones?

[Punreader]

So I know he's conftown, but:

Nahdia (10)
Pine (10)
Vaxkiller (10)
Fire Assassin (9)
PenguinPower (8)
Punreader (7)
DeasVail (6)
Screenplay (6)
the worst (5)
Lovebird (5)
Espeonage (4)
Shoshin (4)
Chara (3)
Dunnstral (2)
NicoRobin (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
Taly (0)
MariaR (0)

Vax, a lot of your stances here in the rankings don't seem to line up with your statements D1.
Why am I this high? You were going after me a lot.
Why is Pine that high when you were stating suspicion of him?
When did you get opinions on Fire (high) and Dunn (low)? You stated you didn't have opinions on either.

For that matter, how did you get the rest of these? Most of your top and bottom reads lack any explanation. (Middle reads like DeasVail and Espeonage, I understand as that's what you were saying in regards to them. But the closer to the edge in your reads I get in both directions, the less sense they make.)

[Commander Shepard]

OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf

VOTE: Vaxkiller

I don’t believe in two vigs.

And I am reasonably confident Punreader shot me.

And as obvTown as I am I don’t believe in two protective actions on me.

One is a stretch. But two?

I think Vax scumclaimed. I don’t believe Vax shot me.

I really like am completely fucking confused.

[Commander Shepard]

You’re asking me to believe that town has two cops two vigs and two protectives?

What would scum have a nuke?

And I was fucking trying to die. *sigh*

[Commander Shepard]

Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (10)
Dunnstral (9)
ActionDan/Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
ReubenWasFine/Lovebird (2)
Srceenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
PenguinPower (0)
Pine/TwoInAMillion (0)

I shot Pine.

WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU SHOOT PINE. Also why is your post formatted like that? HOW did you shoot pine? You claiming vig?

actually solid I didn't read your list before

why hard TR pine and scumread like Taly and Maria?

Because Pine was town? I don't know how you didn't see it, maybe you weren't interacting with him? Maybe that's why I didn't see anything from MariaR, I didnt interact with them. Taly scares me, im getting scum vibes again. MariaR was just leftover when I put the list together, I didnt want to bump anyone down

@Vaxkiller Assuming your claim is true which I doubt explain after Punreader claimed vig and proved it why you didn’t shoot Punreader?

[Espeonage]

You’re asking me to believe that town has two cops two vigs and two protectives?

What would scum have a nuke?

And I was fucking trying to die. *sigh*

Hot take: There's not two cops.

[the worst]

uh

[Commander Shepard]

You’re asking me to believe that town has two cops two vigs and two protectives?

What would scum have a nuke?

And I was fucking trying to die. *sigh*

Hot take: There's not two cops.

Explain how I am alive.
Like I legit do not see why I am not dead.

[Espeonage]

I dunno. Doc or some shit. Idk why they'd protect you, but w/e.

I'm kinda musing though, and this can be backburner considering no flipped scums, but possibility of an SK?

[Commander Shepard]

Actually no....

VOTE: Shoshin

Me living means that someone trusted my reads enough to heal me.

Let’s do this.

[Dunnstral]

Why wouldn't protective be on the cop claim?

[DeasVail]

However, I must insist we let him live for one more night and simply lynch him tomorrow, as that is the optimal play.

I understand you may have reasons for this that I am not privy to, but as the most likely person, in my mind, to be scum, I will likely be pushing for his lynch today unless this is explained.

Also Shepard, does the PGO element of your role only work with kill attempts or other actions as well?

FoS DeasVeil

Why the fuck would I tell scum whether it did or not? That seems to be recipe for dumb

If I am then scum can’t roleblock then kill me they have to mislynch me
If I am not then scum know if they can eliminate me.

This reaction seems pretty over the top considering that you didn't mind if you died.

[DeasVail]

The following people are some form of townread for me. No indication is made as to the strength of townread:
Dunnstral
Nahdia

Now here's some dissonance I have to ask about.

Taly (10)
Punreader (10)
DeasVail (10)
the worst (9)
Shoshin (8)
Screenplay (7)
Chara (6)
Vaxkiller (6)
Nahdia (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
Dunnstral (4)
Pine (4)
TehBrawlGuy (3)
Espeonage (2)
Lovebird (1)
MariaR (0)
PenguinPower (0)
NicoRobin (0)

So Taly, myself, the worst, Shoshin, Screenplay, and Chara were all townreads. That makes sense. I've removed those names from the original 652, because what I really want to focus on here is the remainder. Dunnstral is listed as a townread, but is below both Fire Assassin and Vaxkiller, who are not listed as townreads. Nahdia is listed as a townread, but is below Vaxkiller who is not listed as a townread and is equal to Fire Assassin who is not listed as a townread.

The rest seem to loosely match up, but those rankings in particular seem jarring.

Care explaining, DeasVail?

I'd imagine it was because in the time between making post 652 and submitting my rankings, I decided Vaxkiller was more likely town than I thought before. I also don't really remember the reason for my Fire Assassin vs. Dunnstral placement. It wasn't super well thought out.

[Commander Shepard]

However, I must insist we let him live for one more night and simply lynch him tomorrow, as that is the optimal play.

I understand you may have reasons for this that I am not privy to, but as the most likely person, in my mind, to be scum, I will likely be pushing for his lynch today unless this is explained.

Also Shepard, does the PGO element of your role only work with kill attempts or other actions as well?

FoS DeasVeil

Why the fuck would I tell scum whether it did or not? That seems to be recipe for dumb

If I am then scum can’t roleblock then kill me they have to mislynch me
If I am not then scum know if they can eliminate me.

This reaction seems pretty over the top considering that you didn't mind if you died.

Why wouldn't protective be on the cop claim?

@Dunn I don’t know ask them
@DeasVeil Yes I don’t

mind

if I die. I just don’t want to hand scum a roadmap saying “here’s how to kill me” good luck!!