Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Klick]

Hellooo. I’m currently on the last week of a month-long vacation from the US to England. This basically just means that in a week, my activity will ramp up considerably and I won’t be phoneposting. I’ll be active to the best of my ability until then.

The extent of my reading is currently “the last page,” but...
@skitter: Could you explain/summarize why you suspect Pine? Because I get conflicting ideas from your most recent post. You have the impression that Pine isn’t paying close attention to the game; then you try to work out the motivation behind the werewolf kill; then you express that you think Pine is WW. The werewolf in your head doesn’t quite match with your current vision of Pine, methinks.
@Pine/NM: Both of you think that UglyDuck is scum. I’m going to do a skim soon but if you could give a brief explanation of what makes it obvious it’d probably help.

[Klick]

So here’s my hot take based on a skin of D1 and a thorough read of D2/D3:

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

2) UD is town. Every post he’s made in the past three game days has been extremely genuine and I don’t see him rounding out either of the remaining scumteams. He’s obviously not a wolf (which most people seem to agree with at this point) due to interactions with AP on D2; there’s so little synergy between their posting that I’d be floored if UD’s a wolf. I feel he’s town because his posting doesn’t come across as being paired with anyone, and hasn’t the entire game. He’s thinking entirely about how his slot can benefit town. As scum with RR I feel like his D2/D3 posts would be much less self-centered and focused more on letting RR carry their team to victory, considering the enormous amount of heat on UD at that point. If anything he’s been posting like a wolf would since then, except he’s not because his interactions with AP make zero sense for him to be a wolf.

I intended to say more in this post but I have to go. For now:
VOTE: skitter

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

[Klick]

@skitter:

First of all, I apologize, I’ll adjust my pronoun usage

In general I’m sensing a disconnect between different points you bring up in your posts. There was the one last page that I still feel odd about (you say it’s sarcastic but go on to say there’s a legitimate chance Pine’s not reading the game - it’s hard for me to buy into your thought process), and your comments in your most recent post about Ruby Red don’t quite piece together. You’re confident RR’s read on you wasn’t real, yet it’s essentially the only thing she pushes during this game and you say it’s different than the other times she’s pushed you. You’ve got a sense of confidence about your thoughts here that confuses me.


Anyway, more on why I suspect you’re the wolf. It centers around your interactions with AP on D2. There’s a large shift in your attitude this game from your very first post on D2 - you smack your vote on AP and never take it off. The impression I have is that you decided you were going to be pushing AP during the night phase, regardless of your alignment. From the moment you vote AP to the moment tw claims the guilty on him, you focus in on AP hard, and AP focuses right back on you. You’re making arguments, but generally they’re not persuading anyone, and no one else joins your wagon. You make the comment shortly before tw claims that you don’t think AP is going to be the day’s lynch.

Here is what I suspect: you and AP spoke N1 and decided you were going to bus him. You were going to start the day with a vote on him and leave it there. Either it goes through and you get a large amount of towncred for being the leader of the wagon, or it fails and you can safely jump onto a compromise vote while solidifying anti-synergy between the two of you. You were likely banking on the latter and suspected that would wind up happening, but when tw claimed the guilty, you had to roll with it.

The abrupt shift in your posts and AP’s on D2 is what really sells me on it. That, along with the feeling of general dissonance in your most recent posts, leaves me confident in you being the wolf.


My phone is dying. But people asked for other reads. As I’ve said here I believe skitter is the wolf. UD reads as town to me; ceejay seems to at least not be ww, I’d have to look in more detail to have confidence in him as town... but let’s call it leaning town for now? I have no idea how to read NM whatsoever, and the Pine slot is troubling me; nothing Pine himself has done makes me feel particularly good about him, and I need to look at his predecessors more closely. So I’d say mafia is likely between NM and Pine. The one thing that gives me pause on skitter!ww is that we’ve come to the same conclusions on our reads on our own, which I usually consider a towntell. I’d say that’s less of a factor in multiball and it’s more likely he’s confident in exactly one of Pine or NM being mafia.

[Klick]

...she, in the last sentence. I’m so sorry.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

Going to leave this for now, not necessarily because I’m convinced skitter’s free from suspicion, but because I need time to look at skitter’s meta and validate his claims, and I won’t have that time until the end of the weekend. In the meantime, he’s the person posting the most reasonable content right now. A lot of skitter’s response to me is based on meta so it’s difficult to respond without context of what he’s claiming. I think it’s

probably

safe to assume the meta claims are true for now until I can give them a proper check.

Going to be looking into Pine’s slot now. As it stands he, NM and ceejay are the players I’m most likely to vote; I stand by my UD townread.

@Pine: Could you talk to me about your NM townread? Because as I said before I have zero clue on how to read him, and you seem to have some idea of how to go about it.

[Klick]

also I'm a she btw

I’m really sorry. I’m not meaning to do this. I think when I first read over this game, I assumed you were a guy and associated your avatar with a guy. I haven’t broken that connection yet. I’ll keep trying to correct myself; I promise I’m not doing it to be a jerk.

Thank you for the links, I’ll read over them soon.

[Klick]

@Pine: Could you talk to me about your NM townread? Because as I said before I have zero clue on how to read him, and you seem to have some idea of how to go about it.

I've been low-key waiting for this to be answered before giving my own thoughts on Pine.

[Klick]

Finally properly home from my trip and able to give the game a more proper read-through. Looking through the triple-ISO of AP/MWNN/Pine.

Okay, AP, I have a plan. I's a good one, too.

We tell everyone that it's a full moon tonight and the moon is about to come up. Then, we watch the reactions of everyone here. If someone seems nervous and starts trying to get out, we lynch them.

What do you think?

you know, this post looks pretty terrible in hindsight

Say, isn't N_M in this game? I think we can cownt on him reading tw.

Not exactly on the topic of Pine's slot, but this post is ALSO terrible in hindsight. "isn't N_M in this game" comes across as half-assed distancing, and the impression I get from AP's posts is that he's cheeky enough to pull something like this.

Right now I'm divided on N_M. Would rather wait for a flip to decide. (He "half" towntold)

Guess this is turning into a read of both Pine and NM, since NM's own posts give me very little in terms of readability.
I don't like this. It feels like AP could be holding out on townreading NM because he knows NM's his partner and there's a decent chance he flips before AP does.


General note: the way MWNN interacts with AP feels sketchy. It occasionally feels like interaction for the sake of it as opposed to genuine interaction. For example:

Guys, let's get this talking:



VOTE: Draynth

AP, why Draynth?

This doesn't feel genuine at all. AP essentially gave his reasoning in the vote post. MWNN is just talking to AP for the sake of talking to AP.

Where are your other reads atm?

All need to be reevaluated.

AP still probably town unless I see I was TRing him for the same reasons I was pintu.

hesitance to townread AP, giving himself an out to be wrong.

Pine's replacement catch-up posts aren't particularly telling. I initially had a scumlean on his NM townread today, but it at least seems to be consistent since his beginning posts. I believe there's possible scum motivation.

The stuff surrounding the NM Seer fakeclaim is silly. I think NM does it as any alignment. I don't feel like Pine genuinely believes anyone will fall for NM's gambit.



It was hard to get much, because AP dies D2 and associatives for wolves die there. I think there are pretty significant ties between the Pine slot and AP. the biggest thing that irks me there is the way MWNN forces conversation with AP. But I'm more bothered by the early-game posts by AP. The "half"-towntell feels too much like an extremely convenient way to keep his options open on his NM read.

So while I wouldn't be terribly opposed to a Pine lynch, I like this vote better:
VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Klick]

lol

[Klick]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

[Klick]

Lynching has a 3/4 chance of Town immediately losing.

In addition:

Please take note of the special endgame mechanics:

The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.
If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

[Klick]

Whoops. Tags broken, but you get the point.

[Klick]

...what?

Yes, everyone knows their own identity. That doesn't improve the town's odds as a whole of lynching the wolf today, it's still 1/4 that lynching could actually lead to a town win. I can say "I know I'm town" but that won't stop anyone from placing a vote on me.

[Klick]

In addition:

Please take note of the special endgame mechanics:

The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive.
If the mafia and werewolves ever make up equal numbers, with no protown roles left alive, then mafia win. Mafia also win if a day phase begins with one mafia, one werewolf, and one protown.

[Klick]

That was in response to Pine, who seemed to miss it the first time.

[Klick]

No-lynching gives town a slight edge, which I went over in my original post. We have very small odds of actually lynching the wolf today. Our odds are much better tomorrow if the wolf hits mafia.

Or to flip it around: why are you promoting an agenda that only improves the odds of the wolf?

[Klick]

The problem with lynching today is that we're forced to rely on someone that has no reason to want what we want. The mafia has no real incentive to help us today. And even if they did, our odds would still be better no-lynching.

If we no-lynch today we're forcing every decision into the hands of people who want the pro-town outcome to occur.

[Klick]

Town's agency is already partially removed from this situation. 3 votes are required for a lynch to occur. In order for the wolf to be lynched today, the mafia's assistance (as well as correct read) is required.

I really don't care which scumteam has what odds at the end of the day. I care about what odds town has. Town's odds improve with a no-lynch, as we leave the decision up to someone who's confirmed to

not

be the scum we're looking for and who has complete motivation to aim for what town wants.

Frankly, I also have more faith in the wolf's chances of killing mafia at night than I do in town's chances of lynching the wolf today.


Thinking through, if there

is

a lynch today, mafia most benefits from it being the wolf. Their odds are 50% if town is lynched today, and... something like 75% if wolf is lynched today. With a no-lynch, mafia's odds are a flat 67%. So that means mafia's odds are best if the wolf is lynched today, but at the risk of lowering their odds if town is lynched.

The best scenario for both town and mafia would be if the wolf was lynched today. Unfortunately, that is statistically unlikely. This situation is basically a glorified MyLo where, despite there being an additional faction, the math is the same in that the strongest play for town is a no lynch.

[Klick]

That's L-1, fwiw.

ceejay, the math is there. If we fail to lynch the wolf, we lose. If we no-lynch and the wolf shoots town, we lose. It's just that one of those options is statistically more likely than the other. Town's best odds are letting the wolf try to shoot mafia.

Though to be fair, I didn't consider the possibility of the wolf not killing.

@Mod: If town doesn't lynch, then wolf doesn't kill, etc., at what point would the game end?

[Klick]

Wolf is left in a better position in our current scenario than if it kills. Just like in a normal MyLo.

[Klick]

I'm really failing to see the scum motivation everyone's seeing in proposing a plan that gives town the highest chance of winning it has.

Like, here's the order of events:
Klick - "No lynching gives town the best odds of winning, here's the math to show it."
Pine - "No it doesn't!! You're obviously a wolf for suggesting such a plan *votes Klick*"
Klick - "no you missed this setup rule here look at the stats again"
Pine - "nah"
Klick - "no srsly go look at it"
skitter - "Okay, so maybe town

does

have the best chance of winning with this plan... but not by

much

, and I'd rather the town as a whole make the decision than let the wolf make it." (fwiw I respect this line of thought, although I don't agree with it)
ceejay - "You do realize town could

lose

if the wolf's wrong, right? *votes Klick*"

At the very least I understand skitter's thought process. The plan that benefits town most also happens to benefit mafia significantly. Thinking I'm wolf for proposing the plan is illogical. Unless there's significant other reasoning for believing I'm wolf (which both Pine and ceejay have alluded to but failed to elaborate on), the votes on me are rash and unjustified.

I'm inclined to believe skitter's the townie in this situation. Town is the only faction that could potentially lose immediately by us mislynching - wolf and mafia still have a chance if we miss.

[Klick]

I think the motivation for wolf killing UD is obvious - several people thought he was mafia, but not a single person expressed a wolf read on him. He’s someone that wouldn’t get lynched until the wolf was dead.

[Klick]

Correct, I replaced in when it was already day and thus I, as wolf, would have only been here for last night phase.

At some point soon I'm going to go back and read ceejay's slot.

[Klick]

And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.

[Klick]

I PMed the mod a while ago but I am going to have to replace out. I apologize.

[Klick]

Oh wow. I could have sworn Pine was wolf.

And fwiw I absolutely would have proposed the same plan as town.

[Klick]

I stand by my "I feel sorry for you if you're town" Skitter

also this

[Klick]

I find this amusing because, like I said, I'd have proposed the exact same thing as town.