Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Pine]

suuuuuuuuupp

[Pine]

Now seems like a good time for an important PSA: I will be using my standard replacement meta here. I will read mod PMs, mod ISO, predecessor ISO, and most recent 5-10 pages, in that order. I will then follow up on ISOs of people I find important.

You can help me by giving me a summary of what’s happened so far. I will of course take this with a grain of subjective salt, so focus less on your reads and more on concrete facts like claims and actions.

[Pine]

So TW is the Seer, no CC, with a crumbed claim and crumbed guilty...

Remind me why there are votes on him?

[Pine]

Mmmkay

[Pine]

Oh yeah. Fuggo deffffnitely scum. I'm thinking Wolf. N_M just being N_M.

Let's go Maf-hunting now:

Pine

Town
skitter30
Sando

the worst

Seer
ceejayvinoya
TheYankeeReaper

UglyDuck

Scum of some kind
Not_Mafia

AP

Wolf
Draynth

That leaves us with two more scum in:
skitter30
Sando
ceejayvinoya
RubyRed
Not_Mafia
Fumuki

My gut says N_M is just doing his usual contrarian bullshit Towngame.
The ceejay wagon suggest not-Maf (three Townies and a flipped Maf)
Pintu's ISO suggest Sando not-Maf. Too much hard defending and pocketing
Pintu's softer and less methodical defense of UD suggest UD is Maf
Pintu's treatment of Skitter suggests either partner or pocket
Not sure how to regard Pintu/Fumuki interaction

skitter30 - Suspiciois
Sando - Not Maf
ceejayvinoya - Not Maf
RubyRed - Unknown
Not_Mafia - Town
Fumuki - Unknown

Best guess is {Pintu, Skitter, unknown} {AP, UD}

VOTE: AP

[Pine]

And obv if AP flips anything but Wolf we turbo lynch the duckling. Don't think that happens though, with no CC and it being suicide to fakeclaim.

[Pine]

Sorry, I didn't realize it was L-1

[Pine]

VOTE: UglyDuck

Bro

We're lynching the guilty

[Pine]

Fair.

[Pine]

I mean, we are definitely lynching Fuggo next.

[Pine]

Give us your partner and we’ll lynch them instead

[Pine]

Cool

Have your partner shoot him, kay?

[Pine]

Awesome. So we'll make sure to lynch duckling when the wolves shoot you

[Pine]

Nah you're right I transposed my notes wrong.

Why did you fakeclaim Seer? I mean, I applaud the gambit, you nailed AP, but I don't get it.

[Pine]

Nah, it's cool. NM claimed and you got AP to confess. Nice gambit.

[Pine]

Not mafia is the real seer. Keep up.

[Pine]

So we can sort the rest.

[Pine]

If you like that, you should try being a guilty child impotent treestump some time.

It is *incredibly* liberating.

[Pine]

Yawn

Fuggo still scum

[Pine]

Lynching Wolves today and tomorrow is optimal. Mafia don't have a NK.

[Pine]

I'm pretty hard TRing NM. I'm fine lynching someone other than AP if and ONLY if we think they're Wolf.

[Pine]

I'm pretty hard TRing NM. I'm fine lynching someone other than AP if and ONLY if we think they're Wolf.

[Pine]

Yeah NM is not Wolf here. Maaaaaybe Maf, but he doesn't try to cover for the Seer like this as a wolf.

[Pine]

nm is baiting the nk

I want to lynch Ruby Red for calling this out. I was going to out this obvious gambit tomorrow, but NM was clearly trying to bait the kill away from TW. That's why he's Town, and why I was trying to support the gambit.

It wouldn't work against any of the more pro players, but...no offense to anyone, but there's some newbies and lowbies in this game.

Calling this out makes me think Ruby is trying to point it out to scumbuddies or something.

Do scum have daychat?

[Pine]

Also Fuggo's "townslip" is definitely fabricated.

[Pine]

I thought nm was trolling tbh. I don't really think anyone took his cc seriously in any sense

like I think it's fairly blatant that tw is seer and that nm is, like, not

and I think AP thinks TW is the seer, which is pretty much what's important here

scum don't have daychat in this setup

ftr I think you asking that might be you trying to fabricate a townslip

Asking about something that's public information is never a slip in any context - it's laziness. *Asserting* scum have daychat when they publicly don't could be construed as a slip or an attempt to fabricate one, but just asking is merely lazy.

[Pine]

VOTE: Ugly Duck

[Pine]

Sando has a point. Fuggo has a much higher chance of being Mafia than Wolf.

Quick worst case scenario math:

8 alive
D4 - 5:2:1 assume ML
N4 - 4:2:1 assume Townie kill
D5 - 3:2:1
N5 (D5 ML) - 2:2:1 Townie kill produces 1:2:1 endgame (maybe? Depends on tiebreaker ruleset, irrelevant for Town, Town loses). If maf kill, produces 2:1:1 LYLO, must lynch wolf
N5 (D5 MafLynch) - 3:1:1 Townie kill produces 2:1:1 LYLO, see above

I think we're best off trying to lynch wolf today, but if we ML and have a Townie NKed, we need to lynch Maf tomorrow

[Pine]

But you're like 90% Mafia-scum.

Obvious attempt to discredit reasonable statement is obvious. Not_Mafia is probably not Mafia (at least not w/ UD)

Also I've decided that 'Fuggo' etc is a bit too aggro to use with a newcomer to the site. UglyDuck, we want to keep you around and do not intend any actual condescension. New folks are the lifeblood of the community, and just because you are transparently scum this game doesn't mean we don't like you

[Pine]

Your avatar isn't accepted

Down with Whitney

[Pine]

Pass

drunkposting is good though

[Pine]

@Mod: Please prod Fumuki. They haven't posted all phase.

Also holy shit, I just ISOed Sando, whom I've had difficulty getting a read on, and the associatives with AP are *outstanding*. Early baseless Townread, works in coordination with AP on D1, ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!, goes after other people.

This is our WW. Also, he was *obsessed* with the Seer role, even before it was revealed. There were FORTY-FOUR references to the Seer on the first page of his ISO, most of it before TW claimed. Sando views the Seer as a threat. Check this post out:

SANDO REALLY, BUT FRICKING REALLY MAY NEED ROPE

Not only that, if I compare to Open 720 and comprove that he's off, I'll be asking for some explanations to some players here that played there as well and didn't say anything about him

Rofl, out of CJ, NM, Pintu and Duckling, the person who flaked out wants to accuse me of being different from there?

Where's that "proof", game going too fast for you to post it?

Your analysis of wolf-game is flat out wrong by the way.

While we're on the topic (and this might help you realise the error of your ways Fumuki) of 720, I'm putting it out there now: Do not CC as seer, especially D1. Scum and Wolf optimal strategy is going to nearly always be claim seer, if you're the seer, let them claim and just quietly go about your business. If you die, we shall avenge you, promise.

He's trying to preemptively muddy the waters and cloud any Seer claims...which is exactly what he does later. TW claims Seer, and Sando practically ignores it to tilt at other windmills.

VOTE: Sando

[Pine]

Sure sounds legit, thanks for the self-meta

#sarcasm

[Pine]

Yeah nailed it

Sando going into emergency flail mode

Vote that fucko

[Pine]

Nah. Fuggers is probably Mafia. Eliminating the remaining Wolf puts us into a nightless lynch-only game. That's a good thing.

[Pine]

Deeeeeefinitely lynch Fuggo D4, though. Regardless of other flips, cutting Maf from 2 to 1 is important on D4 so we don't get early endgamed.

[Pine]

Lol Sando wants to focus on Maf, when eliminating wolf makes this a no-NK game

Be more obvious

[Pine]

Ummmm, I really want to, but Werewolf continues to take priority.

Playerlist:

Pine

Town
skitter30

ceejayvinoya

Town?

UglyDuck

Mafia

Not_Mafia

Probably Town
Fumuki - Being replaced

I dunno, PoE suggests skitter. Fumuki was too disengaged to make a precision strike on Red Ruby. Need to ISO skitter and AP together.

[Pine]

VOTE: Skitter

[Pine]

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

Hmmm

That's actually a pretty solid point.

UNVOTE:

[Pine]

Right?

[Pine]

Self prod and thread bump

[Pine]

Ugh I don't know.

Ceejay's point about you suggests that you're not Wolf, which suggests HE's not wolf. UD is Mafia. I'm still TRing NM. That PoE's Klick, but I don't actually SR Klick. That said, I don't read ANYTHING from that slot, so it would be better than nothing. If we could get rid of the Wolf, I wouldn't mind getting lynched myself to eliminate the possibility, but it's strictly best to lynch Wolf today.

VOTE: Klick?

[Pine]

NM is in his Town meta. Straight-up.

Plus he was trying to distract scum from tw by lolcountering the Seer claim. I don't see scum!NM doing that.

[Pine]

Why does scum!ceejay rescue Skitter?

[Pine]

I don't approve of the NM lynch. I'm pretty sure both scum are on it.

[Pine]

Dude, I'm not scum unbunch your panties. I'm pretty sure we're fucked, though. We're at 2:1:1. Lynching WW is the only acceptable answer at this point; lynching Mafia sends us to night 2:1, endgame 1:1 at daybreak.

Okay.

I'm Mafia. I'm pretty certain the last WW is Klick.

[Pine]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

lol wtf this is DEFINITELY wolf.

No lynching has a 2/3 chance of Town immediately losing. The only way Town wins in a no-lynch is if WW shoots Mafia, and then win a 2:1 LYLO. Klick's suggestion that the Wolf loses if they don't shoot Mafia is completely and demonstrably false - 2:1 LYLO is in no way bad for the Wolf.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

VOTE: Klick

Pretty sure Skitter is our last remaining Mafia, who honestly believes I'm wolfscum. That panicked 'what the fuck is he doing fakeclaiming Mafia' reaction is *exactly* what I was fishing for.

[Pine]

No, it doesn't. First, everyone knows their own identity, so it's still 2/3, except now we have agency instead of hoping WW decides to actually shoot Mafia.

[Pine]

How does Wolf lose if they don't shoot mafia? Mafia doesn't have a killing role. 1:1 Wolf wins

[Pine]

No-killing makes no damn sense for Wolf. There is literally no incentive.

[Pine]

1) Process of elimination. Wolf is not CJ and not you and not me. He's also advocating a pro-Wolf plan
2) His plan is blatantly pro-Wolf. It discards all Town agency.
3) Irregardless is not a word.

[Pine]

Also, you really don't want to lynch him because you will win as Mafia when he shoots someone else (I finally figured out the Mafia wins in ties rule. That would have been helpful in the Town role PM)

[Pine]

]oh i misread that then

pine, you realize i think you're the wolf and you say you think i'm mafia, right?

cuz mafia!me kinda needs to be alive tomorrow to win

Wolf!me doesn't care who or whether we lynch. Wolf!me is confident he can NK the only actual threat. Wolf!me does not go out on a limb like this, there's no profit in it. I'm an advocate of "Do whatever you would as Town" scumplay, but only if it's not LYLO. Wolf!Pine shuts up and accepts whatever plan lets me shoot Mafia.

Also the misunderstanding regarding wincons wasn't faked - I was a replace-in, and missed that caveat.

[Pine]

I'm like 80% sure it's Wolf!Klick + skitter!Mafia.

Skitter is dragging his feet because he knows he'd lose in 2:1 LYLO, and is holding out for a Town lynch or NL to take his chances with the Wolf's shot. After all, the Wolf has to shoot correctly or it loses.

Yeah. This kind of sucks, because Skitter can just dig in and refuse to comply. It's probably his best chance...a miss at night gives him the win.

[Pine]

i'm a she; i think we went through this like six times this game alreadyl

I am genuinely sorry about this. It was in no way intentional.

The way I figure, you're stalling for time, trying to shift the focus to someone else. You don't want to NL right now, you think you'll eat the NK. You don't want to lynch Klick, you think you'll get lynched tomorrow. From that perspective, stalling is the best bet.

By the way, you're kind of proving my point on why ceejay is Town. It would be pretty easy for scum!ceejay to justify a No Lynch vote, right now, as there's no way he gets NKed or lynched if he did. That leaves me with you and Klick; of the two, Klick is acting transparently Wolfish. Ergo, you are Mafiascum.

Game solved.

[Pine]

You know what?

I'm changing my mind.

I'm still pretty sure that ceejay is Town, Skitter is Mafia, and Klick is the Wolf. However, I also think that Klick knows this. From Klick's perspective, they *must* shoot Mafia tonight, or Mafia wins. Their best chance is to shoot Mafia!Skitter, and hope they can convince ceejay that the Wolf is me. That's probably the path of least resistance to a Wolf win here.

Ordinarily, I would fight tooth and nail against any plan which forfeits Town agency, but I'm reasonably confident this plays out to give everyone agency on D6.

VOTE: No Lynch

This is a gamble, but it's one I'm comfortable making.

[Pine]

Sigh. Waiting for something resembling consensus. My mind is made up - Klick or no lynch. I will not be voting any other way.

[Pine]

/sigh too

@Mod suspend deadline and prod timer while the problem is fixed?

[Pine]

At this point I want the game to be over too.

I'm like 90+% on Klick!wolf, and *everyone* wants the wolf dead.

So just do it and let's move on.

[Pine]

VOTE: Klick

[Pine]

Here's where your reasoning breaks down - even if you think one of us is Maf, you'd still be willing to get rid of the wolf. Again, you're holding out for a different answer. Fine, I get it. But my refusal to do anything but vote Klick or NL means you're not getting that.

[Pine]

Not wolf here

[Pine]

The key play here was that ceejay had everyone fooled. No one was considering him. Klick we got by PoE as scum (if wrong team), and the Townies naturally assumed the other was the remaining scum.

GG ceejay.

love the fact we mislynched every day except the guilty and still got to 4p

We also lynched scum in LyLo, but wrong scum.

[Pine]

The key play here was that ceejay had everyone fooled. No one was considering him. Klick we got by PoE as scum (if wrong team), and the Townies naturally assumed the other was the remaining scum.

Skitter was literally voting CJ eod and you came out and said "Klick of no-one, gtfo"...

I stand by my "I feel sorry for you if you're town" Skitter

I've never really understood the attitude of blaming Town for a scum win, rather than lauding the scum.

Utterly convincing one Townie was ALL HE NEEDED. Sitting in the dead thread, you have the luxury of omniscience - living players do not.

So again, well done ceejay, it was a deserved win.