Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Sando]

and wtf is this post?

Yeah fair call, I missed that post.

It was L-1, and NM was off-wagon, and TW didn't want to end the day yet. Are you suggesting that I should have stayed on? Like what do you think I should have done there?

I'm suggesting that you were going after me for suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP and then deferred to Duckling...who was suggesting that we lynch someone other than AP. Apparently I need to keep this super simple, but you can see the contradiction there?

d) I think that all the people that tw thinks knows his PR meta (and thus would've killed him) are less likely to be wolves.

You're still currently voting a person he said isn't wolf for the same reason you're now claiming should say you're not wolf...

[Sando]

Is this a thing I've done anywhere since like early day2? And even there I wasn't scumreading you for it, but rather saying I thought your opinion was wrong.

Since you apparently think I'm scumreading you for that: I don't think that there was anything inherently scummy about how you approached the AP lynch yesterday even though I thought and think your opinion was wrong.

And I don't get what this even has to do with the L-1 wagon thing in the first place. And I don't see the contradiction. I'm pretty sure that you're ascribing a scumread to me here that I never had.

Your last(ish) post of D2 is agreeing with Fumu who thinks that me pointing out that Mafia wanted to lynch AP yesterday makes me scummy...you want to claim this whole dynamic wasn't a thing since early yesterday? Sure there's a lot of nuance there, which obviously evolved later in the day, but I've ascribed motivations in 1687, for you to pull out a single sentence as if that summarises my entire stand whilst ignoring things like that is just...beyond stupid in its misrepresentation.

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town. I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

And I said all of this already:

a) You're wrong and are trying to lynch town here
b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

[Sando]

What I did say was:

* I think that there's no point lynching outside of the guilty

* I think it's hypocritical of you to push me for wanting to lynch a wolf yesterday when you wanted to lynch wolves yesterday (that's what the post in response to the fumuki post was saying)

* I think it's scummy and hypocritical for you to be pushing me for not voting someone I think is a wolf when you're voting me but can't explain how my actions make sense as coming from a wolf in a holistic sense.

This whole thing says you didn't actually read what I was saying yesterday, and the fact that you're still pushing people who you don't think are wolves says you still either refuse to acknowledge or don't understand what I've been saying for a looooong time. I'm not going to go back into it, for a variety of reasons, but we can circle back later today if you want.

I think that the wolves are in {pine/nm}. I think that pretty much anyone has the potential to be mafia except for like ceejay, but my best bet are you > ud >>> ruby red in roughly that order.

Seriously? "There's no interest"? Instead of lynching someone who the Duckling wanted shot and got defended by the wolf, and you think is the wolf, you're gonna go after known non-wolf just cause you think it's more likely to happen? I disagree with Pine but NM would definitely be my call of the AP voters for wolf. I've got a third in mind, but you've decided that we need to death-tunnel, and I'm not super keen to engage on that (3rd) right now.

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?

Yes, I certainly give them wolf-points for it. The fact that you can understand the wolf motivation for that but not the Mafia motivation behind yesterday gives me great pause though. You're in death-tunnel mode though, I discussed this with NM yesterday, I don't believe he's this bad and I'm happy for him to stay on the UD wagon in the face of logic, since it's AI for him to do that.

[Sando]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

Jesus H Christ, this had really better be Mafia trying to make false associations with me, if you're town you're absolutely terrible here.

No matter what your or my alignment is, we both 100% know we're not partners with each other, so voting me is, to my eyes at least, a very easy way for you to avoid voting your partner and giving associations. Given I specifically called your plan stupid because I want to force you to associate with a potential partner and you respond by just vote-parking on me just screams to me that you're desperate to avoid interacting today. To me, this looks like you've given up on trying to survive as Mafia and you're just trying to avoid getting your partner killed.

I want to hunt for the wolf, and in that hunt I'm well aware that Mafia also could get hit and that they want to help hunt the wolf. I want to see people hunt because wolf/town/mafia have different motives here and by getting them to hunt we can potentially see some of those motives coming through. You're doing everything in your power to avoid actually hunting, that's TERRIBLE town play, or just plain old Mafia play.

[Sando]

Yeah that didn't answer my question. I get that you and me "can't be partners" but then... there are like a lot of other people. I could of voted for any of them. Why is voting for you defending them? Why are you being so defensive actually?

You're kidding right?

1) I'm saying you and your plan is bad and scummy because you're trying to avoid giving associations about your scumpartner.
2) You follow this by voting someone I know 100% is not your partner.
3) You then can't understand why I say "nice way to avoid giving associations"

[Sando]

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things.

No they're not, you're getting confused, all poker players are gamblers, not all gamblers are poker players. That's different from "very different things".

If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

God yes please. I'll argue the point with skitter about using 7 vs 8, but your point is just stupid. Let's use NM since we're not sure on his alignment and you as an example:

UD - we don't believe you're a Wolf, so there's a 2/8 (or 2/7 if you want me to remove myself as per skitters point, but 8 gives nicer numbers so ner ner) chance that they're scum = 25%
NM - Could be wolf or Mafia, so there's a 3/8 (37.5%) chance they're scum. Technically there's a slightly higher chance he's Wolf since we're giving non-wolf cred to certain people, but that just makes the numbers more stark. The calc should actually be 1/7 chance of being Wolf plus 2/8 chance of being Mafia, giving him ~3.15/8 (~39.3%) chance of being scum. That goes up even further if you want to give me non-wolf cred.

The only reason to change the denominator is due to knowing you yourself are town, you change the numerator to account for removing options for people, and you change both if you want to calculate them separately.

The calc is very simple, it's (number of scumslots you could be) / (number of people who could be that scumslot). At least skitter is arguing about reads throwing that out and understands the intricacies of giving yourself town-guarantee.

[Sando]

Also holy shit, I just ISOed Sando, whom I've had difficulty getting a read on, and the associatives with AP are *outstanding*. Early baseless Townread, works in coordination with AP on D1, ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!, goes after other people.

This is our WW. Also, he was *obsessed* with the Seer role, even before it was revealed. There were FORTY-FOUR references to the Seer on the first page of his ISO, most of it before TW claimed. Sando views the Seer as a threat. Check this post out:

Oh Pine...you silly goose.

I play PR roles from VT better than the PRs, it's just my thing.

Yeah I got the AP read wrong, it wasn't baseless though, at least not beyond the first time I said it. Yeah I tend to sheep D1 on my TRs.

On the seer+AP: It was the correct call from me, as evidenced by the fact that you're floundering today. We had 2 wolves, it takes 2 lynches to get rid of them all and we can't speed that up. Lynching AP first in that or second does not change the speed of which we catch the second wolf. Leaving him alive provides potential associatives, and also provides a small chance that the seer stays alive.

[Sando]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

Aside, this post is hilarious given the argument I've been having with you for the past couple of days, where this is *my* position and you're arguing the opposite.

Yeah turns out there's a difference between D1 and D3 with only a single wolf alive and the seer dead...

Honestly the fact that I get constantly SRd on this site for pointing out the best townplays available is a constant source of frustration.

[Sando]

ignores TW's Seer claim, never votes AP, wants to let AP live?!

Oh also Pine, this is literally my town-meta right here as well.

[Sando]

Sure sounds legit, thanks for the self-meta

#sarcasm

If you can't dredge up the intellect to actually engage on why it was the correct call then I guess it's pointless to engage.

FTR on me:

Skitter

understands what I'm on about and disagrees, also plenty for people to read

UD

is sheeping/clueless on what I've been saying, I personally think genuinely

Pine

is choosing to ignore the actual motivation and reasoning behind what happened yesterday, fairly opportunistically I'd say

[Sando]

Also you do realize that the lynch of the day atm is UD, right? You do realize that he's wildly believed to be mafia, right? Do you think that NM and Pine are wolves for voting and/or pushing there?

Thought about this overnight, and you're right. NM was my 3rd WW coming into today and I didn't give him WW points for this, probably because after the last few posts of yesterday I just expected it and glazed over.

Personally I think Pine's latest push on me is pretty terrible, but happy to let that play out.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Sando]

Yeah nailed it

Sando going into emergency flail mode

Vote that fucko

NM knows for sure that my 1716 is true.

[Sando]

That's not why I'm scumreading you

Pine is, that wasn't in direct response to you, the quote made it look that way, apologies. 1718 agrees with what you're saying there.

Also moving your vote off of me to someone that I want to push because I pointed out that you're overlooking him is kinda meh.

He's my 3rd today, but I'm ignoring my 2nd for now, reasons (it's pretty obvious if you look at my posts today).

I agree with you that pine's hop onto your wagon is meh; his case feels like it's pushing a narrative. I went through your ISO and I don't think I'm seeing the same thing that he's seeing. Like I don't think it's accurate to say that you're *obsessed* with the seer. I do agree that you do spend a lot of time talking about it though.

I feel the most egregious thing is to claim that I ignored the seer claim. I specifically went into APs offer as it related to the seer and outlined, extensively, why the best chance of seer-TW staying alive was to lynch outside of AP/UD yesterday. Disagree with that view all you want, but to say I ignored the seer claim is as you say, pushing a narrative. Sure, I didn't drop down and worship at the altar of TW-seer, but I made extensive reference to it in my posts.

I get that you have a different philosophy on how to play multiball. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem with you

scumreading me for being a wolf when my actions *don't make sense as coming from a wolf* in a holistic sense and you're ignoring that.

You're effectively scumreading me for having a different philosophy wrt multiball than you do because you claim my POV pushes a wolf agenda although you can't explain how the rest of my behavior makes sense as coming from a wolf. Also I was pushing this POV waaaaay back on Day1 during the esp thing, which is before there were any wolves in the picture at all, and this is literally how I always play multiball.

I'm not ignoring it, I've acknowledged it, but I also acknowledge that there's no-one who makes perfect sense as wolf. Nothing ever makes perfect sense, the question is who makes the most sense. There's things that point to you as wolf, there's things that point away from you as wolf. I'm weighing those up on the scales, we simply disagree about which side that scale is going on.

Also, I've acknowledged that I appreciate your reading being different from mine of how to play multiball, see things like 1718 again. I've said a few times that you clearly have an understanding of what's going on with things like reads vs odds, and whether we should lynch anyone vs only-wolf, especially in contrast to someone like UD, and NM.

[Sando]

But that was a response to your question to him. What's wrong with skitter playing along on what the pr wants?

Because he's simultaneously going after me, at that time, when I'm advocating for the same thing as the PR.

Sando - you dudes AP's plan is shit, and you should just leave AP up, vote anyone other than UD and AP (and TW was unsaid).
Skitter - yo Sando over here doesn't want to vote AP, what a nunce
TW - yo dudes AP's plan is shit, and you should just leave AP up, vote anyone other than UD and AP
Skitter - yo TW, that's a great plan, ima do what you said

1379 was UD saying my ideas were bad. His very next post is taking the vote off AP because TW wants the day to continue.

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

[Sando]

Just to be clear I very openly stated that I was jumping right on you for exactly the reason that you getting lynched instead of me is better. The fact I have a skum lean on you just makes it gravy. Only mentioning it because the reason I outright stated it was so you could use me sheeping you as a defense... but yeah you can try anyways.

Wat?

Lynching me today is bad for the same reason lynching you today is bad. If you're town, you just handed the game to scum.

[Sando]

a) I'm a she btw

b) your timeline is out of order. I took my vote off of AP *before* he posted his plan - it literally had no impact on my unvote because *the plan didn't exist yet*

a) Sorry

b) You're somewhat correct, I got ahead of myself with the AP thing and you're right. Either way, I was pushing for us NOT to lynch AP and you were saying that was silly, then TW called on us to not lynch AP and you jumped off. My timeline isn't out of order, the "AP plan" bit is incorrectly used there. It should be:

Sando - Yo peeps lets just lynch the other wolf today
Skitter - Well that's just stupid
TW - Yo peeps dun lynch AP yet
Skitter - Sure thing TW

c) Yeah I was taking artistic license for the purpose of making a point to CJ, it's not the basis of a SR on you.

[Sando]

VOTE: Sando

Also this is L-1 btw

I'd kinda prefer the day not end before fumuki-slot says, like, anything

You mean putting someone to L-1 with NM in the game without the need to avoid lolhammering PRs whilst someone hasn't posted all day might not be the greatest idea?

[Sando]

I think I agree with this about Pine; I'm really not sure how he misses you talking about the seer yesterday.

Pine also flat out ignores the possibility of lynching Mafia today with the "we absolutely lynch UD tomorrow"...take that as you will.

Deeeeeefinitely lynch Fuggo D4, though. Regardless of other flips, cutting Maf from 2 to 1 is important on D4 so we don't get early endgamed.

If we lynch Mafia today we're at 4/1/1 or 5/0/1 tomorrow and wolf should again be the target.

[Sando]

VOTE: Sando

4 hours dude, you're off your game.

I'm town:
Pine should be SRd hard for this.
Skitter convinced me of non-wolfy and probs non-Mafia, take that as you will.
UD is still...yeah
NM should be SRd for the hammer, he doesn't think I'm scum at the very least.
CJ knew full well I'd get NM hammered, so you can treat his vote as the hammer and read what you will.

[Sando]

NM who you taking to endgame now that Fumu is presumably out?

[Sando]

Oh and Fumu basically being an idiot about me yesterday basically says either stupid town or opportunistic scum and hence why he was my 2nd and I wanted him around, I doubt he replaces out due to scumminess though.

[Sando]

Oh, if you're 3/2/1 tomorrow (decent chance), if you mislynch (again, you idiots) then the WW is unlikely to shoot overnight tomorrow night given if they hit town then scum loses, and if they do shoot they're gonna be pretty damn sure of hitting scum.

[Sando]

given if they hit town then

scum loses

Mafia wins*

NM can you stop lolhammering at inconvenient times please, it's late here, ffs.

[Sando]

VOTE: Sando

Also this is L-1 btw

I'd kinda prefer the day not end before fumuki-slot says, like, anything

Oh, Skitter also knew at this point that NM has the reputation for lolhammering, it was the defence she (I'm learning!) gave for leaving the AP wagon at L-1, that NM would hammer. She chose not to remove, whilst also "kinda prefered the day to not end"...bit of a different approach from yesterday.

[Sando]

Your posts have a fairly tangential relationship to reality

You're literally the only person in the game who's expressed any understanding of reality here, fuck I hope you're scum, for your sanity's sake. I'm really glad to be out of here as town, this group is...ergh.

[Sando]

I stated it right out the gate, given my universal skum read by pretty much everyone, I was going with pretty much any wagon. THAT BEING SAID - Sando was acting as towny as towny towns.

You voted and lynched towny-town-town out of self preservation?

Thanks NM, you have my eternal gratitude for getting me out of this hellhole. You too skitter, it was terrible play, but holy shit I'm glad I don't have to deal with this anymore.

[Sando]

Do you think Skitter is Skum?

If scum, by far and away the best scum in this game. Town have fucked this up enough to this point that the only way out is just hoping they haven't been outplayed and they can't second guess themselves. The only chance of a town win is to trust that skitter is town and hope she's not that good as scum. There's just too many "scumfucks" as she so eloquently puts it for you to do anything but. You've just lynched "towny-town-town" who said catagorically that you wouldn't be todays lynch...if you're town, you're not good enough to win this. Pine is either scum or has no concept of reality. CJ will not in any way contribute as either scum or town in any useful manner. And then you've got NM who is intent on lynching you and will lolhammer people he reads as town.

After all that...you lynched someone today within 100 posts and allowed the only two people either not lynched or not on the wagon to post a combined once...

You dun fucked up, sure skitter could be scum, she's done some conflicting things and she's certainly contributed to getting a townie lynched today within 100 posts...you're all worse. You had today to weigh in on the skitter discussion, instead you decided to lynch me because you were petrified of being lynched...then you told everyone that.

[Sando]

The key play here was that ceejay had everyone fooled. No one was considering him. Klick we got by PoE as scum (if wrong team), and the Townies naturally assumed the other was the remaining scum.

Skitter was literally voting CJ eod and you came out and said "Klick of no-one, gtfo"...

I stand by my "I feel sorry for you if you're town" Skitter

[Sando]

Yeah this was one of the most frustrating games I've ever played tbh.

Dun worry, I got lynched for "wanting to focus on Mafia"...frustration was basically the name of this game with this player list.

[Sando]

Kinda sad that if only people did remember the main fact that I couldn't be werewolf (and it had a lot of evidence in-thread), we (mafia) had VERY GOOD chances of winning since Ceejay thought last mafia was Pine ;o; (mainly by voting no lynch when Pine said to vote no lynch)

The no-lynch gambit was a massive spotlight of "I'm Mafia", continuing to read Pine as Mafia through it was an indication of just how scummy Pine acted all game, it didn't make it a good gambit.

"Couldn't be Wolf" is just silly, Skitter lynched me based on the fact that she "couldn't possibly be wolf with AP", and the wolf (CJ) did the exact same thing as her.

[Sando]

I've never really understood the attitude of blaming Town for a scum win, rather than lauding the scum.

CJ got plenty of plaudits in the dead thread as well.

[Sando]

like the benefit to town was so slight that it was basically meaningless and at a certain point i gave up trying to point these things out because no one was listening to me

Setup/logical speculation is basically universally scumread on MS I've found, it's frustrating.