Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: The Worst

Quack quack

[ceejayvinoya]

Reads so far:

ManWithNoName -Town
skitter30 -Mafia
Espeonage -Town
Sando -Werewolf
the worst -Town
ceejayvinoya -Mafia
TheYankeeReaper -Town
UglyDuck -Werewolf
pinturicchio -Town
Not_Mafia -Mafia
Draynth -Town

Important:

If I got your alignment right; please confirm in the thread.

Oh noooo. We're in trouble scumbuddies!

@wolves let's form an alliance and lynch off AP today.

Any townie is welcome to join our cause, for the sake of a fun, AP-less game.
VOTE: AP
#LynchAP

[ceejayvinoya]

I did some light research. AP actually means

Angry Potato

My vote definitely stays.

[ceejayvinoya]

Is anyone even trying to gamesolve? Where's that 'serious guy who gets us out of rvs'? He should be here by now lols.

[ceejayvinoya]

@the worst what is wrong with you this game? Are you really scum? Lols.

[ceejayvinoya]

No sir

not on MS, just once offsite like 2 years ago

I was scum that time

too

, nailed scum on the other team and got NK'd >.<

We got ourselves a scumslip guys

dude I told you to ignore that in the PT wtf

@town seeing this makes me think that ducky here is town. He doesn't know scums and wolves dont have daytalk. What do you all think?

[ceejayvinoya]

lynch espe d1
???
???
town wins!

This is bothering me in the same way that ceejay's vote on AP was bothering me. Why is your immediate response to esp to call for him to be lynched him? Ceejay did the same thing to AP.

--

duckling I'm getting scum vibes from you :/

--

Also in the last iteration of jungle republic, esp did in fact get hard-cleared by just about everyone for bussing scum!a50 super-hard, so I think that there is some merit to this theory

Why is my vote on AP bothering you? that was rvs. Tho I guess it will become serious soon if AP doesn't stop posting shit.

[ceejayvinoya]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am

not going to give details

on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

Not gonna give details? You're just casting shade then.

[ceejayvinoya]

I only gave the thread a quick skim on the first read through so I'm gonna go back and think about some posts now.

Only ones that really stand out are

Town - Skitter

Scum - UD , Sando (based on 154)

Um. What if UD and Sando really are ignorant of the fact that mafia can't kill? I glossed over those posts and thought them NAI, because they could go either way.

[ceejayvinoya]

I think Sando is on to something here.

VOTE: MWNN

[ceejayvinoya]

theworst, if you had to pick a scum partner(s) for Espeonage who would it be.

your mother

you're a comedian

The non-chalant townie front that you're trying to put up isn't going to make me want to unvote you. Sorry.

Espeonage

bussing

you that early is a real humdinger, pardner.

Are you saying that the worst and Espeonage are scum together?

[ceejayvinoya]

So both of you (AP+duckling) are confident you can read him but you currently don't have enough info?

Yes.

NM has like what? 6 posts? Agree that there's nothing much to sort him with yet.

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh. Happy Birthday YankeeReaper!

[ceejayvinoya]

Um. What if UD and Sando really are ignorant of the fact that mafia can't kill? I glossed over those posts and thought them NAI, because they could go either way.

Neither of us were ignorant of it, we both assumed it due to the role PMs not mentioning it, and we both missed the actual statement in the mechanics part that is totally clear.

Okay I'm gonna assume you're not werewolf then. Possibly could still be scum tho.

Not sure about uglyduck because skitter said that he has a history of dumbtelling.

[ceejayvinoya]

I like Draynth so far. I think he's town.

[ceejayvinoya]

also I am going to bed but will post more info in the am - this is where my notes are at for now:

ManWithNoName - null
skitter30 - skum
Espeonage - null
Sando - dependent on flip, but null
the worst - null
ceejayvinoya - no idea
TheYankeeReaper - town
pinturicchio - either town or fantastic skum. leaning on the town side.
Not_Mafia - no idea
AP - no idea
Draynth - town


* I said I would do more tomorrow so don't hold this post against me, just based off of brief re read I did to answer TW question *

If I were to throw two cents in I would say it is surprising (on this forum) no LAL concept has been brought up yet. But again, I will read more tomorrow and post it then.

Uhhh what is LAL?

[ceejayvinoya]

I like Draynth so far. I think he's town.

CJ I think I've scumread you in every single game I've seen you playing and this might not be the exception if you keep doing posts like this

That's fine I'll get the hang of this one day

[ceejayvinoya]

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

Can you tell the rest of the class why you're reading those three town?

I have my reasoning in a zip file. Let me unzip and get back to you.

Still waiting for this lols.

[ceejayvinoya]

worst scum ceejay scum

Are you going to explain anything this game?

Don't count on it lols

[ceejayvinoya]

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

[ceejayvinoya]

Nice job piling onto N_M when you are doing the same.

Uh what I didn't quite catch the meaning of this.

[ceejayvinoya]

Nice job piling onto N_M when you are doing the same.

Uh what I didn't quite catch the meaning of this.

Oh nvm I got it. Not really piling. That's how N_M usually plays. Do some research and see for yourself.

I don't even get why you think I think that's scummy. You're just looking for an easy reason to pile to me.

[ceejayvinoya]

which is scum indicative of NM
but he's townposting

Are you placing BoP on NM? Lols. Anyway NM is likely town this time.

[ceejayvinoya]

AP here doesn't seem to be taking the game seriously.

[ceejayvinoya]

Like, I know we all appreciate the comedy. But some furthering of town wincon would be nice.

[ceejayvinoya]

It's been like what? A week? And were still in warm up phase?

[ceejayvinoya]

No sir

not on MS, just once offsite like 2 years ago

I was scum that time

too

, nailed scum on the other team and got NK'd >.<

We got ourselves a scumslip guys

dude I told you to ignore that in the PT wtf

@town seeing this makes me think that ducky here is town. He doesn't know scums and wolves dont have daytalk. What do you all think?

VOTE: ceejayinova

My best shot at a town NM. This post of mine really is pingy, and his rxn to it pings town to me.

[ceejayvinoya]

Feels too fortright to be scum. Tbf tho I don't know his scum meta.

[ceejayvinoya]

Ah shit. Looks like I'm being dum again.

[ceejayvinoya]

Looks like I'll pair him with AP below my nulls line

[ceejayvinoya]

Tbh I now find him unsortable.

[ceejayvinoya]

Reason for NM below the nulls line is I'd rather lynch him than lynch one of my nulls.

[ceejayvinoya]

Read on NM is very nuanced and I'm not explaining it yet

By very nuanced you mean town right

[ceejayvinoya]

You're all bugging the wrong guy.

VOTE: Espeonage

[ceejayvinoya]

*Looks at clock*

Yes it is indeed some point.

This is like the second time you refused to out reasons and said you'll say it later. What about skitter? Is skitter still scum?

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh Fumuki is here. Lols. Hey Fumuki

Lemme catch up a bit.

[ceejayvinoya]

Well I've townred Draynth earlier. Fumuki here is probs town too.

[ceejayvinoya]

Fumuki is steategising what wolf would be doing mafia/wolf or town indicative d1? IYO

NAI actually...

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh Fumuki is here. Lols. Hey Fumuki

Lemme catch up a bit.

@Fumuki what do you think of Sando not knowing earlier that Mafia doesn't have nightkill?

[ceejayvinoya]

Fumuki is steategising what wolf would be doing mafia/wolf or town indicative d1? IYO

NAI actually...

ding ding tbh
lynching a woof d1 is ideal
I don't think Sando is towny but I don't think that's a good reason to wolfread him

Ooooh tell me. Is Fumuki wolf?

[ceejayvinoya]

Ooooh tell me. Is Fumuki wolf?

He's describing sub-optimal wolf play which would equal wolf. But then he seems terribly worried about the NKs coming at Mafia and understands Mafia's play here very well...

Oh you mean he's giving town terrible wolf hunting advice to help them fail? That it?

[ceejayvinoya]

Btw let's all stop speculating on wolf strats pls. Lets not give the wolves a free "How to win Jungle Republic" manual.

[ceejayvinoya]

Ok I'm ready, what a long read. I'll say this about Sando vs Fumuki:
I was scumreading Sando on 720 and I could see only after the game was over that he was a powerful townplayer with good strats; I was scumreading Sando in this game based on that other game but I couldn't say it 'cause that game wasn't finished, but now that I know that Sando was town there, I think Sando is town here too, so I don't agree with Fumuki about Sando being different. I like that Fumuki pushed Sando tho, since it's not... let's say, the "easy mislynch". What I mean with this is that he could've joined the duckling's wagon or not push anyone at all, but he went for Sando who I consider a strong player. Haven't played with scum!Sando so maybe I'm wrong about that, but I think his townplay was solid on 720.

Conclusion: townreading Sando, less scumreading Fumuki's slot but I still have a gutread on Draynth so...

Now about the whole setup speculation I really don't give a crap since I'm not good at that, I'm good at townreading people and towning myself up so what up. This caught my attention tho:

Btw let's all stop speculating on wolf strats pls. Lets not give the wolves a free "How to win Jungle Republic" manual.

I know both Fumuki and sando were talking about wolf strats more than the other two factions, but they talked about optimal strategy of the other factions too. This pings me, pings me a lot I say. Let's play a game called "have you met wolf!CJ?"

Hey! Have you met wolf!CJ?

I don't get this. You're assuming I'm wolf because I asked town to stop talking on optimal wolf strats?

[ceejayvinoya]

nah I think it's fine whether we lynch either wolf or mafia. Our seer friend can help us in finding the wolves anyway.

[ceejayvinoya]

WEREWOLVES, KILL, MAFIA, FIRST.

THERE'S NO ARGUING ABOUT IT. IF THEY KILL TOWN IT'S A MAFIA WIN FOR SURE.

SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEER

Is this you pointing out there is a seer or calling them a seer?

uh this is Sando pointing out that wolves would prioritise killing seer, and not mafia.

pedit nvm there goes Sando

[ceejayvinoya]

No. So it doesn't count

[ceejayvinoya]

Both scumfuck factions have an interest in killing me.

Do you mean nk or ml

[ceejayvinoya]

Bread for duck

I think scum would rather push a wagon on opposing scum. *shrugs*

[ceejayvinoya]

Bread for duck

I think scum would rather push a wagon on opposing scum. *shrugs*

scum don't play optimally, that's why I said a subconscious behaviour

I see...

How many scums do you think are on your wagon?

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm kinda hesitant on a UD wagon because someone says this is how he plays as town...

[ceejayvinoya]

I think fumuki's more likely than not town, especially given draynth, even though his posting is annoying me

Pin's a very strong townread I think.

I don't really get the esp thing still. It feels like a compromise wagon and I still don't think that anyone's sufficiently explained why he's scum. (I'm aware fumuki cased him and I think that he's scumreading playstyle differences and I don't think that his case describes scummy behavior)

--

hiya ruby. Why do you think I'm scum?

--

VOTE: ceejay

Wtf. A practically naked vote on me...

VOTE: skitter

Why am I a compromise lynch to you anyway?

[ceejayvinoya]

Like, you "know" that espe is a compromise wagon, so you hop on to someone you said earlier is your compromise vote?

[ceejayvinoya]

I want to lynch sando but I've given up on that being a thing.

I think the duck is more likely than not scum but I don't want to lynch him today.

I don't really get the esp wagon + it feels compromise-y + I don't scumread him so like I'm not really into joining it right now. Also I kinda feel like he'd be trying more as scum tbh. I at least know where he stands on things.

I can't remember you doing anything useful this game (ie I can't pick out any of your positions/stances/pushes without re-ISO'ing you which means that I don't know what you're thinking) + pin wants it and I think he has better reads than me right now and he's the person I think is most likely town +

I don't really know where else to vote right now.

So I guess I'm compromising because I dislike the other options more.

also you're like OMGUS voting me here?

Not OMGUS. My big problem with you here is that you're letting go of your scumreads and decide to agree with everyone and go with the flow, then settle on a compromise of lynching someone else. Why?
What's worse is that you knooow that Espe is a compromise wagon so you did not join that, but then decide to hop on to another compromise wagon for reasons that are completely NAI (yeah, me being mostly useless to town is NAI).

Plus look at bolded. You're calling me out for not having positions/stances/pushes when you don't have an idea on where to go either. How is your sorting of everyone going?

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: skitter

gl gl gl building a wagon on that

You and Ruby are honestly kind of wasting your votes

We're gonna start a revolution

[ceejayvinoya]

ceejayvinibobini

Lols pintchorizo

[ceejayvinoya]

@CJV, lmk if you're around

Not gonna be around most of today and tomorrow. Got some exams to go through.

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm fine with an Espe lynch I guess.

VOTE: Espeonage

[ceejayvinoya]

You're supposed to hammer. You're too early lols

[ceejayvinoya]

Darn this game is getting weird.

VOTE: UglyDuck

I think this is best for now. However I think that if this flips scum, it will only flip mafia tho. What does everyone think of a wolf hunt?

[ceejayvinoya]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

Can you say this again? I don't understand what you mean

I think he says I'm scummier than him and I should be the one getting wagoned right now. Not him. Poor duck.

[ceejayvinoya]

AP has been pinging me all day yesterday because I thought he wasn't being serious about the game, but I've been letting it slide because the worst said this is nai for him. What changed your mind @the worst?

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: AP

[ceejayvinoya]

Ssshhhh!!!!

[ceejayvinoya]

Complete honesty - I need to do a thorough D1 read (which I am doing now).

This is insanely skummy tbf:

I don't have much time to go in depth about how I got to the following conclusion, so I'll just say "Welp, I'm AP"

I think Espeonage and the worst are scum together (reminder: Scum = anti-town). Espeo is getting wagoned and the only player he feels fine voting is tw who doesn't even have a real chance to get lynched?

If Espeo flips a WW I think tw is the other one and we have the power from then on (either by lynching him or leashing as someone suggested, although I'm not a fan of the latter myself).

If Espeo flips Mafia though, then not only tw is Mafia, but also one of CJV/skitter .. I think.

@Fumuki: I'm TRing you for your weird logic. I mean, I get the feeling you were looking for "which lynch was more likely to go through" between CJV and Espeo rather than which of them is more likely scum (reminder: Scum in my book = anti-town). You also wanted to "save" skitter today, yet I fifn't get the impression you were TRing her!!

Now the reason I TR this is I cannot see any anti-town player saying this in the open. It's kinda the definition for "too scummy to be scum" kind of revelation. Feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding your logic.

The one thing I would say is that it does not have a scenario where AP considers ESP as Town - which I feel like Skum would be sure to include.

May I ask how this pinged you as scummy? The only thing you pointed out is that AP failed to mention a scenario for Esp as town...

[ceejayvinoya]

Catching up. Give me a little while.

[ceejayvinoya]

I expected to die too but I was comfortable enough with {fumuki, ruby, Sando, skitter} being town or maf and frankly you guys are the only ones liable to pick up on my current tpr meta tells. AP knows me fairly well but not THAT well, plus I was very lynchable this time. I'm getting better at it.

@the worst are you 100% confident here?

What are the odds that they deliberately ignored your soft-tells to get townred?

[ceejayvinoya]

Hmm but wait that doesn't make sense either because you wouldn't be alive to make this list lols.

Nvm. I'm trusting this.

[ceejayvinoya]

Yeah agreed I'm being dense.

[ceejayvinoya]

What are you all arguing about at this moment? Why did the wolves pick Pintu? Is that it?

[ceejayvinoya]

If that's true then I guess it's... Not_Mafia?

[ceejayvinoya]

also now that I have caught up... I don't get the hesitation/confusion here

1) TW is Seer and has a result and we lynch AP and find a wolf and yay
2) TW is not a Seer and is WW ... and yeah that doesn't really make sense since they got Mafia last night so why risk it for one kill?
3) TW is not a Seer and is Mafia ... and yeah that doesn't really make sense since they would be the only Mafia left and then would be known the next day unless they are actually gambling on a WW result and a not getting a Seer-CC like... ever in the game...
4) TW is an arrogant SOB Town that thinks they are doing us a favor that will probably cost us the game.... or they are right and then awesome (if the case, good job #ResultsOriented)

#1 and # 4 are the only ones that make sense. Either way, we should lynch AP.
If we lynch AP, and AP is WW, TW wakes up dead!seer or awesome dead!town, or I guess sending Mafia to their last - but I don't think so.
If we lynch AP and AP is Town, we either find Skum TW (assumed WW, as only one Mafia left) or we find Town TW who is trying to make an asinine Day 2 early read on someone with like next to no information... right? please comfort me and tell me you find that idea ridiculous, TW...



VOTE: AP

IIoA...

[ceejayvinoya]

Why is AP not lynched yet

[ceejayvinoya]

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and 1 mafia that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

Wtf I don't get this 1 mafia thing is this a scumslip

[ceejayvinoya]

OK, here's a serious offer:

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.
Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

Let's vote on that proposal.

HEAL: AP's proposal in 1449

Proposal VC:
Yay (1): AP
Nay (0)
Not Voting: Everyone else

Nay. The worst dies tonight 100% of the time. I mean, look at 1433, and he like, gave the worst a shot on finding his buddy.

[ceejayvinoya]

Hint: You can leave it up to my best judgement, provided that it ain't you still.

P-edit: COME ON! I NEVER shoot N_M in any game regardless of my/his alignment. The only time he got shot recently with me in the scum team it was someone else's decision.

N_M is wolf hell yeah

[ceejayvinoya]

I don't get wolf!skitter. He pushed AP earlier. Like a lot. The only reason he wasn't on the wagon was that he unvoted to prolong discussion and hunt for the other wolf...

[ceejayvinoya]

@Not_Mafia who's the other wolf?

[ceejayvinoya]

does literally no one other than the cow want to comment on my idea like literally at all?

It's a terrible idea and is more likely to come from scum.

I see no reason why town would bother putting forward such a plan, and just not scumhunt like a regular town.

Besides if you're scum, I don't think you'll bother helping us out anyway on finding the last wolf, because it says on the rules that if wolf and mafia are on a tie, mafia wins. Plus, nightless will make this hard for your team. You're probably aiming for a town lynch.

[ceejayvinoya]

@Sando skitter isn't wolf. You do understand that skitter knows how the worst plays as pr? If skitter is wolf, the worst would probably be dead at night 1.

[ceejayvinoya]

And you do understand this is why skitter was offwagon on AP earlier?

UNVOTE:

Cuz that's l-1, the duck wants to drag out the day, and nm is off-wagon

You not comprehending this is making me sus.

[ceejayvinoya]

The guy jumps off because "Duck wants to drag out the day", after saying this:

because there's a guilty on him? If there's no benefit to delaying I don't see why we don't just lynch him? Like if AP isn't lynched today I still think that TW almost always gets killed here -> I think the wolves will find it more beneficial to just let AP go than to let TW have another night to get a result.

It's in direct conflict with me, who was in vehement agreement with the Duckling in at least the sense that we look elsewhere of AP.

Skitter SCREAMED lack of understanding about the situation, followed by leaving a wagon with poor reasoning.

But that was a response to your question to him. What's wrong with skitter playing along on what the pr wants? This doesn't look contradictory to me, it looks more as if he's agreed with you and the worst and let more discussion come along before day ends...

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Sando

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm still assuming that Skitter and Fumuki slot isn't wolf because the worst lived past N1. This would mean that wolf is in {Pine, NM}

[ceejayvinoya]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

This pretty much screams to me that skitter isn't mafia...

[ceejayvinoya]

Well that's shit.

VOTE: Pine

[ceejayvinoya]

Lols. Fumuki has more posts and content than most of us...

[ceejayvinoya]

Dissonance? Wtf? RubyRed has been trying to get skitter lynched ever since she joined the game...

one second, reading isos

uglyduck is v

skitter is a wolf

VOTE: skitter

hiya ruby. Why do you think I'm scum?

posts like this

not seeing any of the in-depth thoughts from splatoon mafia (granted, can't say i actually read all of them, but the ones i did were definitely were in-depth)

nah

i originally wanted to do a fake hammer but that vc fucked it up + i think people on the wagon moved their votes anyways

felt good to caps a vote

VOTE: SKITTER

prodge busy, skitter iis stil la wolf btw

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

Skitter may be wolf (very unlikely tho I think) but she's definitely not mafia.

[ceejayvinoya]

Scrap that. Skitter couldn't be wolf too. She led the lynch on AP even before the seer claimed.

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Lols.

I'm sooo darn tempted to lynch UD and call it a day.

[ceejayvinoya]

If Pine isn't wolf, I think it's more likely to be NM than Klick. I've townread Draynth earlier, and same goes for Fumuki.

Tho I guess It's possible that Fumuki may have missed duckling's soft tells and just acted like he picked up on it in D2, I think it's unlikely.

UD is still Mafia.

[ceejayvinoya]

NM is in his Town meta. Straight-up.

Plus he was trying to distract scum from tw by lolcountering the Seer claim. I don't see scum!NM doing that.

I don't see the point in NM doing this actually. Everyone would look at NM and TW and would kill TW. I think his lolcounter is NAI.

[ceejayvinoya]

Found this while rereading.

Who do you want shot if UD flips Town?

^@tw ONLY

Not_Motherfucking_Mafia

Hint: You can leave it up to my best judgement, provided that it ain't you still.

P-edit: COME ON! I NEVER shoot N_M in any game regardless of my/his alignment. The only time he got shot recently with me in the scum team it was someone else's decision.

When AP proposed his plan earlier (on where town chooses who he nks), he was very much against the idea of nking NM. I guess that points to NM being his partner?

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[ceejayvinoya]

@Mod you missed my vote on NM

Found this while rereading.

Who do you want shot if UD flips Town?

^@tw ONLY

Not_Motherfucking_Mafia

Hint: You can leave it up to my best judgement, provided that it ain't you still.

P-edit: COME ON! I NEVER shoot N_M in any game regardless of my/his alignment. The only time he got shot recently with me in the scum team it was someone else's decision.

When AP proposed his plan earlier (on where town chooses who he nks), he was very much against the idea of nking NM. I guess that points to NM being his partner?

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[ceejayvinoya]

Oh hi.
I'm thinking Klick is more likely to be wolf than Pine.
Idk why Wolf!Pine would defend NM lynch yesterday.
I can't see him either killing UglyDuck. I think if he was wolf he'd go for Skitter.
I have no idea who last mafia is.

[ceejayvinoya]

I propose a no lynch today.

Let's do some math: 2 Town, 1 Werewolf, 1 Mafia. If town lynches anyone but the werewolf today, we lose. Ignoring the fact that the mafia doesn't necessarily have motivation to assist with lynching the wolf, our odds of correctly getting the other three players on the wolf are slim. I believe they're less than 1/4 in reality, but let's call them 1/4. If we lynch the wolf today, we then have LyLo with the mafia, which we'll similarly call a 1/3 shot.

Meanwhile, let's suppose we no lynch. This means town is banking on the wolf to shoot correctly. This has a 1/3 odds, since the wolf has the sole decision and can clear himself of being mafia. The wolf is forced to aim for mafia, since if he doesn't, he loses come the next day. Then we go to LyLo with the wolf, and also armed with the extra information of who the wolf's scumread was.

Regardless, I don't think this is a regular MyLo where no-lynching with as little discussion as possible is correct. I think there's merit to discussing for a while today, trying to nail both the mafia and the wolf, and then letting the day end without a lynch. I'd like to hear if anyone sees any problems with the math.

What. You do know that if wolf fails to kill mafia, town loses with wolf? I'm not happy with giving the wolf a chance to lose the game with us.

And you didn't even mention the possibility of wolf deciding to nk.

[ceejayvinoya]

VOTE: Klick

[ceejayvinoya]

wait, are you trying to get me to lynch him or not lynch him, i can't tell from that last post?

Pine is saying here that you're mafia and you're against lynching Klick because Klick proposed a plan that will improve your odds of winning.

[ceejayvinoya]

If AP was my partner, why would I bus him D2 rather than defend him pre-claim?

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm thinking Wolf!Klick left you alive here because he thought you would go after Pine.

[ceejayvinoya]

lynch espe d1
???
???
town wins!

This is bothering me in the same way that ceejay's vote on AP was bothering me. Why is your immediate response to esp to call for him to be lynched him? Ceejay did the same thing to AP.

--

duckling I'm getting scum vibes from you :/

--

Also in the last iteration of jungle republic, esp did in fact get hard-cleared by just about everyone for bussing scum!a50 super-hard, so I think that there is some merit to this theory

Why is my vote on AP bothering you? that was rvs. Tho I guess it will become serious soon if AP doesn't stop posting shit.

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

AP here doesn't seem to be taking the game seriously.

which is scum indicative of NM
but he's townposting

Are you placing BoP on NM? Lols. Anyway NM is likely town this time.

I simply know he has good reads, and there is a reason I worded my post that way.

Why is NM probably town here?


pedit: that isn't AI for AP at this stage. I'm also not taking the game super seriously yet. Let ppl warm up.

I don't understand why you'd pair me with AP. I thought he was pretty much sus ever since D1. The only thing that stopped me from this is the worst telling me to back off because the way he was playing at that point is NAI.

[ceejayvinoya]

Where I'm stuck at in terms of reads:

{Pintu, Draynth} --town
{Not_Mafia, Sando}
{Skitter, UglyDuck}
{YankeeReaper, The Worst} --null
{AP}
{NoNameMan, Espe} --probs scum

I'm pretty sure there must be one or more scum above my null line but that will sort itself out later.

Lol, this guy.

Want to provide any reasoning for literally anything this game?

Nice job piling onto N_M when you are doing the same.

VOTE: ceejaynova

Although I'm not Welsh, I'll do sheep you on this one

VOTE: ceejaynova

AP, you should join the Espeonage wagon, 2/3 of it is town. Let's make it a straight 75%

VOTE: Espeonage

Still not caught up though, and my internet (or my PC) is shitty.

I don't have much time to go in depth about how I got to the following conclusion, so I'll just say "Welp, I'm AP"

I think Espeonage and the worst are scum together (reminder: Scum = anti-town). Espeo is getting wagoned and the only player he feels fine voting is tw who doesn't even have a real chance to get lynched?

If Espeo flips a WW I think tw is the other one and we have the power from then on (either by lynching him or leashing as someone suggested, although I'm not a fan of the latter myself).

If Espeo flips Mafia though, then not only tw is Mafia, but also one of CJV/skitter .. I think.

@Fumuki: I'm TRing you for your weird logic. I mean, I get the feeling you were looking for "which lynch was more likely to go through" between CJV and Espeo rather than which of them is more likely scum (reminder: Scum in my book = anti-town). You also wanted to "save" skitter today, yet I fifn't get the impression you were TRing her!!

Now the reason I TR this is I cannot see any anti-town player saying this in the open. It's kinda the definition for "too scummy to be scum" kind of revelation. Feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding your logic.

Also I'm seeing that he's equally willing to have me lynched.

[ceejayvinoya]

-> i don't think that wolf!klick proposes this plan? it's dumb from a wolf's pov

He proposed it for towncred. Assuming it goes through and wolf!klick kills scum the following night, who would bother scumreading klick? "Ooooh this guy proposed the amazing no lynch plan yesterday he must be town yadda yadda"

-> wagonomics day1 point to you given that the three leading wagons were me/you/esp and i don't think all of them were on town and ap switched off of you to esp at that point

I quoted AP's votes. Both were basically from sheeping ManWithNoName. If he had flipped back to me there and had me lynched, then espe made it here, would you consider the possibility that he's wolf? Of course you would. But that's circumstantial tho. That's not a very solid tell.

-> i don't know if you make the night3 kill but i'm wondering if last night's kill is because i was townreading you. the kills don't fully make sense from anyone tbh

i don't really know how to put all the pieces together so everything makes sense and this makes the most sense to me

Why would I kill RubyRed for? How about UglyDuck? If I were wolf I'd have killed you while you were still townreading me, preferably last night when Pine was also believing that read. Why would I let you live long enough to reconsider your townread?

[ceejayvinoya]

Like I also have a basic understanding of if you and the guy you TR both make to lylo/mylo, it's likely he's scum bringing you along. If you weren't so dissociated from being wolf, i'd be suspicious of you.

[ceejayvinoya]

ceejay - town because he isn't maf (pin's preferred lynch day1) and isn't a wolf (hopped onto the ap thing before the guilty was outed)

i am very very very confident that he isn't maf, but not as strongly confident that he isn't a wolf. my hesitance about clearing him for being a wolf is significantly less strong than my suspicion of pine/nm, and i really can't imagine a universe where i vote him today.

that was worded badly.

basically i really don't think he's ever maf here.

he probably isn't a wolf but i'm not as confident on that as on him not being a maf.

i am significantly more confident on scum in {pine/nm} than i am on him possibly being a wolf.

i'll probably go back and reread the ap associatives at some point to remind myself of why i was reading that so strongly

You even hinted yesterday that there's a slim chance that I could be wolf. Why would I let you, someone who is more critical in attempting to solve the game, live long enough to read into this?

[ceejayvinoya]

And I've changed my mind With reasonable confidence in skitter not being the wolf, a no-lynch no longer makes sense from my perspective.

Today I'm going to go over the stuff skitter's posted and read over ceejay's slot. I'll probably also look at associatives between the flipped scum and all of you.

See here. Klick isn't even bothering to go thtough with his plan anymore because it already worked and someone thought him as not!maf. Now I'm finding this No Lynch plan attractive.

I may be okay with it now, but with a condition. We all talk about who could be mafia. In a way, help wolf kill mafia.

[ceejayvinoya]

It's in everyone's best interest for wolf to get lynched today. Pine there thinks Klick is wolf and so do I. Trust us lols.

[ceejayvinoya]

Lols I thought Pine was last maf xD

Sorry for forcing you into it Skitter

[ceejayvinoya]

Lols I thought Pine was last maf xD

Sorry for forcing you into it Skitter

That's why I was hoping the lynch goes through bc I doubted you would shoot the real Mafioso.

Great show though, CJV. GG everyone.

Reason I got UD killed is I was having doubts that he really was the last maf (I earlier thought UD is maf). So when he flipped town I thought I was screwed

[ceejayvinoya]

Dammit Fumuki. You have fooled

GG Everyone