Open 726 - Revenge of the Vengeful (Endgame)

[Almost50]

Enigma is T.O.W.N already. Not gonna jump the gum on MM, but that was an awful opener, my friend (and I don't need to explain more, do I? I'm sure you get where I'm coming from.)

[Almost50]

Hmmm.. maybe not!

OK...

@MM: AP is an alt of mine, NOW you undertsand what I'm talking about, Right??

[Almost50]

Spoiler: Wild Theory (wouldn't be A50 if I didn't have one)

2 Noob scums weren't happy with their tole cards??

[Almost50]

Spoiler: Wild Theory (wouldn't be A50 if I didn't have one)

2 Noob scums weren't happy with their tole cards??

Rude. You assume that I am 1: scum 2: bad scum 3: stupid 4: have no respect for the game and its players

.

Baaaah. Now I wonder if Cowbells didn't try to buddy me a bit though. However, the fact that he searched for me is quite townish... but again, we must not read for activity. Also VOTE: Almost50 I just realized voting N_M is not much productive ^^

The bolded is indeed a scum claim. Why would you even think I was talking about you in that spoiler? I was merely referring to the fact 2 players haven't confirmed their roles yet and both I don't know so assumed they are new to the site. Thanks for letting you guilty conscience speak out though.

[Almost50]

Enigma is T.O.W.N already. Not gonna jump the gum on MM, but that was an awful opener, my friend (and I don't need to explain more, do I? I'm sure you get where I'm coming from.)

Genuinely interested in what you find townie about Enigma, his posts seem null to me.

He's genuinely scum hunting with some good detailed reasoning, and is mixing that with a meta read too.

[Almost50]

Spoiler: Wild Theory (wouldn't be A50 if I didn't have one)

2 Noob scums weren't happy with their tole cards??

Pls explain I don't understand this theory.

53 has the explanation.

[Almost50]

Oh god... #misunderstandingslips.

I thought you were talking about me and cowbells

because I was under the spotlight and he was defending me somehow ^^ wasn't much clear. But why do you think that?

You thought I was calling RC a "noob"????????

[Almost50]

Spoiler: Wild Theory (wouldn't be A50 if I didn't have one)

2 Noob scums weren't happy with their tole cards??

Pls explain I don't understand this theory.

53 has the explanation.

Wait, no. It doesn't because you did not even refer to what you meant. Unless you intentionally made a double edged question...

So you read my response to you, acknowledged it was a "misunderstanding" on your part, went on to ask why I thought that way, then decided I didn't make my point clear still??? And why would you jump the gun and not wait for the person this was directed at to respond and see if they understood where I'm coming from??

VOTE: MM

This isn't coming from an inquiring town mindset at all!

[Almost50]

GDI RIP VCA LOL

[Almost50]

Whoops did i break something?

Nope. It doesn't have to do with you in particular (check the next post for details)

[Almost50]

GDI RIP VCA LOL

I came in expecting to see wagons, votes and unvotes... and instead I saw an unvote that brought all wagons to just one vote. Now, regardless of who gets lynched next and/or what their alignment is, at this point all VC analysis is IMPOSSIBLE, because there are no wagons to begin with. VCA is an essential tool in my scum hunting, and it's rendered useless already.

[Almost50]

Notice that this is plurality. If nobody votes till the deadline MM gets lynched. Now what am I supposed to deduce from that? If he flips scum then I'm obviously confirmed a townie, but I very much doubt scum would let their buddy get lynched with just one vote on them, so if the day ends like this I'd be betting money on MM flipping town.

Now comes the WIFOM part: Is this what "they" want me to think? What if I unvote and someone else gets lynched and they flip town? What of MM flips red later on after my unvote? What if... (fill in as many crazy assumptions as you will)

[Almost50]

OK, so page 6 makes me feel a whole lot better about RC. I don't support a lynch on N_M though, but RC is trying to get the balance right, so likely town.

[Almost50]

I don't support a lynch on Marshmallow atm.
To be honest, don't like either of the two wagons atm (and my vote is on a wagon).

Leashing the vengekills is problematic. It ruins later VCA and lets scum hide in the shadow whilst town do the dirty work. Plus as N_M says, vengekills aren't a democracy and there is no way to see it through.

Ideally, we have two competing wagons for probable scum - where the targets are both voting for each other. Then they can vengekill each other Then we can come up with two new competing wagons for top two for the next day (with the added knowledge post-flip) and repeat.

There are probably about three people I wouldn't mind being one of the two wagons, though will hold onto that for now since we still have some time to see where everyone else is heading.

Every single approach you may come up with (regarding Venge kills) is subject to WIFOM manipulation.

2 wagons on 2 townies = to town deaths
1 wagon on scum and one on town leading to town lynch is the only one that works (but we won't know that before the two flip)
1 wagon on scum and one on town leading to scum lynch = scum can decide to kill the townie (same as above) or kill someone else, leading us to believe the other wagon was on another scum instead
2 wagons on scum = scum will kill someone else (same as above)

The last 2 mean that we don't really know if the one that didn't get lynched and didn't get vigged is town or scum, because once we see the lynched flip we may assume they spared a partner, but then maybe tha's exactly what they wanted us to believe and we won't be able to tell until the other is flipped.

So, the only way this works is if we have a scum wagon vs a town wagon and then we lynch the townie of them.

Now RC suggested lynching 4th scummiest person. If that flips town they take the scummiest person with them = higher probability of hitting scum

If they flip scum they still take the scummiest (good for us, as it works as a town Vig for scummy slots) or picks someone globally TR'd which keeps us with the scummier players to lynch.

I haven't really thought it out (i.e. didn't put my head into all possibilities and probabilities) but on face value I fancy RC's approach more (although I will follow whatever the majority decides because I don't really have a magical solution that is 100% guaranteed to work)

[Almost50]

I am totally lost. Anybody want to lend me a helping hand?

[Almost50]

I am totally lost. Anybody want to lend me a helping hand?

Lost on what? What do you think about Iceman and Trinity btw?

I dunno. I suddenly feel like I haven't been in this game before. I was concentrating on "that other game -modded by Korina- that has just ended" and now I'm suddenly questioning all my reads and feelings here. I'm not even sure why I'm still voting you, tbh.

Iceman I think is a town lean for the effort and engagement. Trinity I'd have to take another look at as I don't remember anything they said. (Note: Does the fact I don't even remember their pronoun give you an idea of how lost I am? I -of course- could go back and check (and probably will do just that is a few moments), so hold on and let's see what I can come up with.

P.S. I think I jumped in heads first. For instance, "that game" had PRs. I pegged them all (albeit none in their actual role ) and it helped. There's no such thing in this game, so I can't exclude X from the lynch pool based on me thinking they are the Y TPR.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Trinity

Hey Enigma, what’s the reason for the vote on me?

VOTE: Trinity

I don't have a reason

not to

at this point. I don't think MM is scum anymore.

[Almost50]

List of reads, part 2 (My own reads worded by myself, not quotes & comments)

Town

because green = town

Enigma.

He screams town to me, I feel genuine scumhunting coming from that slot, and the reaction to my opener post was very town-like.

Iceman.

He was scummy at the beggining, but his posts show someone really trying to understand the game and help town.

Townish

Not_Mafia.

I know this will be seen as weird by most people, but I believe he is town a lot. However, that read is mainly based on meta, therefore he cannot go higher than townish in my mind.

RadiantCowbells.

He wanted to strategize on the lynches, which is pro-town. His general behavior is pro-town. However, I have a doubt on him, mainly gut, and the fact that he potentially tried to buddy me at start. Logically, he's town, but I have a doubt.

Null-neutral

- Rei, Oath.

A50.

I don't like the slot. We would really need you in, sir.

Trinity.

Is not contributing, but posts. In other words, he's active but not useful to town. I think someone said he usually was all over the place as town; we are not seeing that here.

Mafiascum

WARNING: MOONLOGIC ALERT! Everybody take cover!

I want to adopt this readlist for the execution of RC's -plan (with my own modification).

Let's lynch Trinity. They are instructed to vengekill me. If Trinity is green she takes out the "next scummiest slot" thus acting like a town vig.

If she's scum, she will be faced with a dilemma. Venging me takes away an almost guaranteed mislynch (before the flip), but the not venging me (for WIFOM) doesn't work the way it should because it's obvious we're not scum together. So, I am betting on Trinity venging me either way and that way we either lose 1 scum for 1 town (to our benefit) or 2 townies who are being terrible at obv!towning (not ideal, but it removes the confusion and forces everyone to reevaluate their reads).

The only downside is if Trinity is a townie we are in LyLo already by D2, but then that is very much the case in 6/9 * 5/8 = 30/72 i.e. 41.66% assuming random lynches/venges, so very much expected in this setup anyway.

[Almost50]

I can agree with this.

Your vote is needed for the lynch to go though.

[Almost50]

Yes, Trinity needs to confirm sticking to the plan. I dunno how to deal with it after the flip though. It needs to be dealt with now because upon the flip she is supposed to take someone with her already.

[Almost50]

Yes, Trinity needs to confirm sticking to the plan. I dunno how to deal with it after the flip though. It needs to be dealt with now because upon the flip she is supposed to take someone with her already.

TBH I don’t understand this ‘plan’ and I haven’t seen much support for it. What does everyone else think?

What don't you understand? I'm offering myself as your vengekill target. If we both flip town the rest of players are forced to reevaluate their reads. If one of us flips scum they can carry on accordingly. I obviously know my own alignment, but it seems like I'm failing to show it, so it would be good for the town to remove me (and the same applies to you regardless of your alignment).

[Almost50]

Then if we were to go the other way round and lynch you A50, then who would you want to vengekill? Trinity?

Same thing, yes. Removing the 2 slots that are globally confusing/being SR'd by the majority.

[Almost50]

I mean, the way I see it: Trying to be a hero in this setup can severely damage the game for town. If you're spot on, fine. But if you're wrong not only do you take out another townie, but -the worst part- is you remove someone who was unlikely to get lynched and leaving the one(s) that are more likely to be lynched anyway, i.e. costing us a lynch we could have utilized in a better way.

[Almost50]

I dunno! I'd be gone anyway. Just do a global readlist I guess and repeat the process maybe?

[Almost50]

I mean, the game is designed to give us control over the NK if we mislynch (NK being used loosely, of course). We only have one mislynch before Lylo, but that's only if we also miss-venge. Even then, if we mislynch for a "3rd time" (now calling the venge shot a mislynch) we have a 4th shot at preventing the scum from winning it outright. If we mislynch twice and agree on two miss-venges then we sure deserve to lose fair and square!

[Almost50]

I dunno! I'd be gone anyway. Just do a global readlist I guess and repeat the process maybe?

I suppose the question here is: let's say Trinity doesn't vengekill you, who would you FOS D2?

Assuming Trinity flips red? I mean, you started off with a red flip assumption and now you assume she won't be venging me, so it goes w/o saying that you're assuming a red flip from her, but I wanted to make sure that's the case we're hypo inspecting.

Now let's see.. I'm TRing you, MM, RC and N_M to various extents, which leaves me with Ice, Rei & Oath as suspects. That would be a 2/3 chance of hitting a second scumster there by mere randomness (assuming I have perfect reads, which -of course- is very much debatable).

Now EVEN if we mislynch there then it becomes a 100% the venge is gonna hit scum (again, assuming that my reads are perfect).

However, all that doesn't really worry me. What worries me more is the chance Trinity flips GREEN and then venges someone who is not me. In that case I should be tomorrow's lynch myself, and then the whole game outcome might depend on

my

venge target (and I might add that I'm more prone to lose in LyLo as town). That is why part of why I wanted Trinity to take me out anyway, and especially so if she is Town.

[Almost50]

Nah my venge kill is most definitely on Marshmallow. Granted, I still haven't done my re-read. But my gut hates that guy.

VOTE: Trinity stick to this plan then. Sorry but I don't like dying

Hey guys. Been super busy at work. Posting when I can. I've been keeping up on reading and I find this to be..... a bad post.

I agree with A50s plan. I'm not sure that I see much downside to it. I'm not sure how things stack up now though and want to just make sure we're on the right path. I suspect Trinity but, I think I'm starting to suspect MM more.

Worst thing we could do is lose two townies.

UNVOTE:


I'll replace my vote later today after I've looked at a few things.

Exactly

. I'm town, and I do not sr Oath enough to perform a lynch on him. I am good with him going down to clear a nullread that might be, potentially, scum. But at the cost of my life if he's town, which is probably at the cost of the game too? No thanks. And YES, I know this can have the obvious scum intent of wanting to stay alive. But it's a town intent too when it'd cause LyLo on D2 ^^

Going out for a while. We still have 3 days. My lynch pool is [Rei, Trinity, Oath].

So what's the difference between a Trinity lynch leading to my death by venge and an Oath lynch leading to your death by venge? I mean, from where I stand I know I'm town too.

My plan was based on common reads. I propose we take out the

globally

scummiest 2 players because

even if both flip town

that'd still be a step ahead for the rest of us (the 4 that are still alive). Self-preservation in this setup is likely to take us down (and we all have the same role anyway)

[Almost50]

@trinity All you need to say is that you'll venge MM and he'll no longer want to lynch. Wierd right?

Nyet you are wrong here. But if he's town, I would really ask him to keep the PRESSURE on N_M. We NEED more information from this slot.

Trinity is a she

Is this mod-confirmed, speculation or a claim??

[Almost50]

I must seem really stupid, rude and retarded this game...

"must" isn't the correct term here. You're doing it by your own choice.

P.S. This was intended to be a

friendly pole in the nose

. Absolutely no offense intended.

[Almost50]

To be honest, players like N_M for me are lynch bait post-D1. If he is town, he generally has good reads ... once you get over his terrible and awful style of communication.

If we realise we can't read him further into the game, we lynch/venge him.

He has done hardly anything this game so far, what makes you think he’ll change in D2? I think we should get rid of him now, as he’s either (1) scum or (2) of no use.

There we go again. This is N_M's play style. He

is

useful if he is town though. I'm trying to decide on his alignment, but he has yet to do one thing or another for me to get a confident read. For now he's null (which is a town lean for him by default)

[Almost50]

...but I'm really good at vengekills.
I mean I haven't done many.
Or any at all.

I'm almost convinced! If you haven't done any then you must have never missed!!

[Almost50]

RC was was scum, super shocked, mucho wow

Someone bloody tell me N_M doesn't have good read! I DARE YOU!

@N_M: Sorry for not trusting your read there. At least I knew you were Town.

[Almost50]

One scum in IcemanCh/TrinityNZ/Enigma and one in MM/Rei? Or do you think all scum voted Oath??

I am back to suspecting Trinity, because RC was against her lynch. I don't have much more against her tbh, so I'll wait to see what everyone else thinks.

[Almost50]

A50, you're susp, you should step in more if you want to help your team, whatever it is

Do a search on all my game and remind me of one I wasn't suspected in, cuz it seems to me that this didn't happen since before the last dinosaur died.

[Almost50]

A50, you're susp, you should step in more if you want to help your team, whatever it is

Do a search on all my game and remind me of one I wasn't suspected in, cuz it seems to me that this didn't happen since before the last dinosaur died.

You claim being an alt of AP, and AP was obvtown in Donner Party. (Okay I was scum, but I think I'd see you as obvtown in that game if I was town).

Actually, AP is the alt. Check the join date and the number of games/posts.

Now AP was created for 2 reasons: 1 I wanted to do the roleplay meme of Austin Powers in a game, and.. I wanted to play that game (and a couple subsequent games) without being auto-SR'd merely for being ALMOST50.

I do realize your point though, but my point was A50 is always SR'd anyway, so I'm well used to it.

[Almost50]

Nothing is happening :/
VOTE: Trinity

VOTE: Trinity Let's go I guess ;-;

Call me paranoid, but I'm not liking either of these two votes/posts at face value. They seem to have been done solely to get this through:

Yep, if you lynch me, I will kill Rei.

Which in turn makes me suspect both Trinity and Rei will flip green and one of Enigma/MM is actually red.

[Almost50]

I think I'll vote only according to how N_M wants me to

[Almost50]

Who would you like her to vengekill? You were pretty set on having her lynched yesterday and her vengekilling you?

PS: Hi AP

Pedit: Are you so sure that N_M is confirmed town to blindly sheep?

1- Yesterday I was, but right now I'm thinking one of you/MM (and honestly I do prefer you)
2- Hi
3- Yes. N_M doesn't bus.

[Almost50]

Who would you like her to vengekill? You were pretty set on having her lynched yesterday and her vengekilling you?

PS: Hi AP

Pedit: Are you so sure that N_M is confirmed town to blindly sheep?

1- Yesterday I was, but right now I'm thinking one of you/MM (and honestly I do prefer you)
2- Hi

3- Yes. N_M doesn't bus.

Hey, from 1 to 10 how much confidence do you have in number 3?

10 pit of 10. I know his play well and I have been scum with him before.

[Almost50]

A50 vote Trinity please

She's likely town though..

But I trust you more than anyone else (including my own reads) so..

VOTE: Trinity

[Almost50]

This setup is really weird. You lynch your weaker TRs trusting they will correctly venge Scum rather than your top SRs in case they do flip scum and venge the stronger TRs.

[Almost50]

Fuck me! MM is scum and is really good at it too. Too bad we lynched you on D1 on the previous game so I didn't get to witness this!

1- You sounded

confident

Trinity was flipping town after the hammer. Not a shed of doubt there. 479
2- In the same post you instructed her to venge Enigma
3- Now you blame her for it?
4- You also start the day by voting the one person you said in 479 was your top TR??

I am now semi-confident in MM-Ice scum team. I very much suspect the switch in venge target proposed by you was to keep Rei alive for LyLo having realized he'd be easier to lynch than Enigma at this stage.

But "maybe" (and this is really a very weak voice in the back of my mind) it's the other way around and Rei is actually your p and Ice is the scapegoat? The one thing I know is N_M is still TOWN. I'll have to go back and reread some stuff (and I hate to read past posts)

[Almost50]

@ALmost50 you said you thought she was town but followed N_M anyway because you trusted him, how do you feel about that now

I still trust N_M if that's what you're asking. Nobody said he'd be 100% all the time, but he has a very good eye for scum. Also let's not forget N_M does not bus, so I have hard evidence he is Town.

[Almost50]

I am still skeptical, but I do think lynching in MM/Ice is the way to go because I do believe at least one is scum. HOWEVER, what if both are? The living one of the two will use that flip to clear himself.
What id one is Scum and the other is Town and we lynch the scumster? They won't venge the other and it will send us straight to WIFOM land.

But my choices are indeed limited, so it's up to Rei/N_M to finish this.

VOTE: Iceman

L-1

[Almost50]

So, which one of you is the last culprit? I have argument for each and arguments against each, so I'm not going to do anything stupid.
I am willing to wait for both of you to talk and willing to engage either of you if so you wish.

[Almost50]

Okay.... I am willing to be lynched myself. I will vengekill my scum read. I'm quite confident now. If I'm scum and I get lynched, scums lose, so you can all live happily ever after. If I'm town, then I vengekill and I believe I will be right ^^

On face value, this happens to be your towniest post all game!

P-edit:

@Rei: You're overlooking something: If he's scum town wins either way. If he is town though town still has a 50-50 chance. This offer does not come from scum.

You -on the other hand- sound like you want "someone else" lynched, and then hope they venge the other townie.

So, if I'm to be lynched myself I am 90% sure I'd be venging you over MM.

[Almost50]

GDI! This is exactly why I didn't want to make it to this point. N_M was my only confident read, and here I am unable to decipher the clues that I'm getting from both of you.

Rei's reaction(s) feel genuine to me. MM's proposal looks townie to me. But I

know

one of you is scum, so whoever it is.. well played indeed.

That doesn't help me much though, so I'm going to use the oldest trick in the book here:

VOTE: Rei

@MM: If you're Town the game should end now. If you're some crazy daring scum who did all this to convince me, I believe you lost the bet bc Rei is likely venging you, and rightfully so. This doesn't take away any credit from you, but the fact is either you or him is scum and I just don't know which one it is, so I'm daring you to vote him to prove he is the scum of the two of you.

[Almost50]

we just lost didnt we

Depend on whom you refer to by "we". It also depends on how MM wants to play this. Let's wait and see, but I'm like 99% confident town will win it now.

[Almost50]

Btw, I do agree with Rei that MM self-vote could come from a

very daring

scumster. I didn't think it over at first, but why would a townie self-vote even if they're 99% confident they will venge the scum when they can simply lynch the scum and win 100%?

[Almost50]

s'alright
english isnt my first language either

That makes 3 of us!

[Almost50]

Also, well played Ice! If you had venged either of them I would have lynched the other w/o hesitation, and if you had venged me N_M would have solved the game.

[Almost50]

why would mm vote himself to convince you
its game over for him if he's scum especially when we already reached majo

Not himself. He

is

voting himself already. But let;s just wait to see how he responds before I explain.

[Almost50]

uh he cant unvote tho if we lynched already majo right
or do i have it wrong?

Wait! What?? I didn't even realize MM hammered himself. I though he was voting himself, I was voting you and you not voting!

*Sigh* The thing is I wanted him to lynch you if he was Town. The challenge for me was to actually vote scum to lynch here rather than win by the venge kill. If he refused to vote you it would have confirmed him as the scum of the two of you, since you seemed pretty adamant on venging him anyway (you convinced me, so well played if you end up winning after all). That was my final test to decide which of you is indeed scum.

So, he lynches you = you're the one. He doesn't = he's the one. But the game is pretty much over now, so I'll wait for the flip to see if town wins already. If not, I'll consider it a loss even if he venges you.

[Almost50]

why is it a loss even if he venges me

It's a loss bc I would have failed to lynch scum in LyLo still. If you

are

town, no worries. We won. It was just a hypothetical proposition based on the assumption MM being Town and me voting him.

[Almost50]

ty for carryinhg me a50

sorry i didnt try

You're more than welcome

[Almost50]

Btw, releasing the Mafia PT is OK by me

Thanks for modding, Ank

GG all

[Almost50]

@Rei: First off, I do not buddy/pocket Town as scum. Not my style. I do like the company of N_M though, so wouldn't FoS him unless I had a really good reason to.

Second, neither you nor MM were at fault tbh. If either of you was either too scummy or too town I would have used it to my benefit. I really didn't want MM lynched because I feared the worst (that he would say he suspects you then venge me, like he did a U-turn when we lynched Trinity and spared you). I honestly thought he was on 1-vote though, so I was debating my way out of the venge for realz.

In short, you played well and so did MM so don't feel bad. After all; it's only a game (and one of deceit).

[Almost50]

Can we erase most of pages 23 through 29 for obvious reasons

Come to think of it, I would recommend erasing most everything and leaving just the first 9 pages.