OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)
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Holy shit, I can't believe you just said that!In post 27, brassherald wrote:People have been reading too much into my throwaway jokes recently. It's weird.- Sando
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Yeah I heard the same, and it's not in the wiki list, hence the question.In post 34, brassherald wrote:I remember someone mentioning that one game there was a scum team that picked all the same number to throw people off.- Sando
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Dat looks like a town CJ over thar.In post 44, BuJaber wrote:I wish you weren't the same person who voted for enigma in RVS.
I'm leaning town for you but my paranoia says you're distancing.
Anyone got a link to that PYP where scum all picked the same number?
As one of the 3, I'm well aware scum did not pick all the same number in this game. Unless there's another PYP I'm missing, scum have only done the "2 of us pick the same and 1 different" gambit once before.
3 appears to be the optimal number for scum to pick, town pick 1,2 and 4 at a significantly higher rate than average, even amongst the top 7-8. 4 is actually the most town-picked number (I wish I'd done this work before draft), followed by 1, then 2. In the 132 townies in the completed wiki games, town chose (12 games):
1: 20
2: 16
3: 11
4: 25
5: 11
6: 10
7: 11
1 is picked by ~15% of townies and ~19.5% of scum, so by itself it's not a good indicator.
Given the likelihood of picking against a townie appears equal in 3/6/7, 3 seems optimal. Funnily enough 3 and 6 have duplicates on them.
Also funnily enough, 42 has only ever been picked once before, by scum
Having said all that, I'm happy to put the numbers out there for peoples knowledge, but I agree with others, speculation on draft picks at this stage is not going to help us short term. Keep it in mind for later days, but we could easily wifom ourselves to death here.- Sando
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I literally opened them from the PYP wiki history part and copied down the picks and alignment of everyone. I haven't read any of the games themselves. I might go dig into the power picks that get chosen tomorrow.In post 47, brassherald wrote:Sando has shown that he has looked into previous games
I'm off to bed, but yeah your reads on what I would/wouldn't do as scum are spot on, so I'll read through the rest of your stuff there in the morning, seems worthwhile.- Sando
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So this is the only part of Brass's post that I think needs clarification:In post 47, brassherald wrote:Enigma, I know nothing about, but BuJaber's stark insistence that they all chose different numbers actually, in my opinion, opens up a possibility that he could be on a scum team that suggested that. I need more time to read BuJaber, but, I do want to note that later on, if he ends up being scum, I would not count out Enigma or two of Ceejay/Sando/ofrhz being scum partners with him. (Again, you guys can add myself and Ausuka to the list to analyze)
I very much doubt CJ is partnered with ofrhz, and I know he's not partnered with me. CJ is a very blasé scum when it comes to using powers or plans etc, and basically peaces out of that part of the game, I can't see him going along with this plan and being part of the double up. He would happily let his partners do what they want, so he could be solo to the 3's or the 6's, but I doubt he'd be partnered with a double up.
Town it looks like to meIn post 75, BuJaber wrote:@Sando - what is CJ?
I went looking to confirm the signup post had the "I'm gonna pick 1" thing, and it doesn't, it got edited, I wasn't sure if it was ok to post outside info.In post 88, skitter30 wrote:In post 9, Sando wrote:
VOTE: VulkanLogician
Tautologies must die
kinda surprised you didn't comment on the ruru-1 thing above?- Sando
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I'm actually basing this off a newbie I played with him.In post 128, skitter30 wrote:i really want that scum PT to be opened up ....
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=76409- Sando
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It's probably a better indicator yeah. Newbie with me the cop was basically a single word short of hard-claiming cop, CJs partner noticed it (as did pretty much everyone) and posted in scum pt during twilight of his lynch that CJ should kill the person. CJ was like "nah fuck it, ima kill this other guy", completely missing the cop thing entirely.In post 130, skitter30 wrote:got it, my one and only game with him is jungle republic and all i can base my understanding of that assessment on is how he reacted to ap's plan in thread after the guilty
i'll check out that link at some point.
Basically, CJ strikes me as a great scum in game, but not one for following da plan, hence I think he wouldn't be part of a pair that picked the same number, but I think he wouldn't mind if his two partners paired up their numbers and left him solo.- Sando
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Yep, once that I can see.In post 136, OkaPoka wrote:
wait scum have doubled up before?In post 135, Sando wrote:
94.5% to be exact.In post 134, OkaPoka wrote:90% scum wouldn't want to double up- Sando
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So you're saying you're making definitive reads on scum-tactics without having even looked at the previous PVP games?In post 157, BuJaber wrote:Random prediction time : 1 one of the people who looked up previous games is scum.
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Yeah but mod is away with some personal issues I think and so it hasn't technically finished. Me and AP have access to the dead thread, CJ and AP have access to the wolf thread, and Skitter has nothingIn post 204, brassherald wrote:Did that game end?- Sando
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I think your math is off still, but to confirm, you're saying policy lynch them the last day where their vengeance won't tip that lynch into a lylo retrospectively?In post 193, BuJaber wrote:
My math was off. I thought day 2 was mylo -1 but it's day 3.In post 183, brassherald wrote:Yeah, why a PL day 2?- Sando
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Yes but I think they're gonna dig themselves deeper so ima not say the scum hot-take.In post 220, skitter30 wrote:sando, any hot takes on the game thus far?
CJ looks townie AF.
AP I think we'll have a decent read on by EOD.
We're keeping Brass around for a while at least.
Skitter looks like town-skitter, but I haven't seen scum-skitter so...
The rest are lynchable, but there's 1-2 that I think are topping the pile, I'll elucidate on that later.- Sando
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It's my GFs birthday today so I'm going to be VLA for a few days, but once back yeah I assume all the digging will probably be done by then.In post 222, skitter30 wrote:def interested in your hot scum take when you're ready to share- Sando
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I think I love you...In post 354, ruru wrote:- Don't cc fakeclaims in general, I think there are a lot of cases where we decide to lynch a claim regardless of whether it's true or not
I'm back peeps! I'll post a bit more in the coming hours.
Can't say I love the wagon dynamics of Enigma, but then they're also pretty scummy...he wasn't my digger though, BuJaber was, I'll post why once I've showered and eaten etc- Sando
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Ruru's 354 I've quote is all that needs to be said, don't instantly CC a claim.In post 377, AP wrote:@ruru.@Oka: Can we like.. shut this conversation about claims off? If I was scum I would have loved you both for the amount of ideas you're giving me.- Sando
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So this was the first BuJaber post, and instantly creating some lovely WIFOM for everyone to digest.In post 12, BuJaber wrote:I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
I'm gonna assume at this point that BuJ is pretty serious about his WIFOM creation.In post 32, BuJaber wrote:
Is this how you normally are?In post 17, ofrhz wrote:
let's notIn post 12, BuJaber wrote: I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.
VOTE: ofrhz
Here my post to Brass is given as reason for me being scum. For context, my comment to Brass was that he was correct that I would not go along with a 3xscum on the same number but that I would have gone along with 2xscum picking the same number. Just to be clear, I'm indirectly disagreeing with BuJabers "scum didn't pick the same number", and get scumread for it.In post 75, BuJaber wrote:I think Sando might be scum here. That comment saying brass is right about him comes off as a disarming tactic.
VOTE: Sando
@Sando - what is CJ?
Also asks me for a read on CJ that never gets followed up.
Oh look, a "random" prediction that just so happens to point at me and Brass.In post 157, BuJaber wrote:Random prediction time : 1 one of the people who looked up previous games is scum.
Ok here we go with the digging. So this is saying that a townie doesn't care if scum are playing optimally or not, but BuJaber is flat out telling us that they are playing "optimally" and coordinating to get the best PRs. He's also accusing me of playing optimally like scum would and picking the most popular town-picked number... You can accuse me of creating WIFOM or you can accuse me of playing "optimally", not both.In post 197, BuJaber wrote:See a townie can research and make assumptions based on past games but they would still be rooted in WIFOM. Will the current scum team follow the trends or won't they?
Scum researching tells them exactly how past scum did it and how successful they were and then they make the decision to go along with past success or go a different route but then in the game ghread they will likely try to subtly make us assume the opposite of what they actually did. Their arguments look better if they research first.
A townie doesn't care if scum is playing optimally or not. They just want to identify them. Scum would want to increase their chances.
This just shows that BuJaber isn't actually reading context. I agreed with Brass on what I'd do as SCUM, and I agreed that he should continue to consider me and another 4 picker as scum possibilities because it's within my meta. How on earth can BuJaber think I'm trying to get Brass off my back with this?In post 329, BuJaber wrote:If brass is town he's scum. I felt that he agreed with his meta analysis so that he wouldn't analyze him further.
Over the course of this game, BuJaber has simply picked two people who agreed on a single point about one of them possibly being scum and contorted himself circles to make them scummy whilst throwing a boatload of WIFOM out there.
VOTE: BuJaber- Sando
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Ignoring it is by far and away the safest play. You're literally attacking me for agreeing, how is that safe?In post 380, BuJaber wrote:But basically A and B suck for scum. They will likely bring a lot of suspicion on them. The person with the meta read would definitely pursue it at a minimum even if others ignore it.- Sando
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In post 381, BuJaber wrote:If you don't like WIFOM stop playing open games.BuJaber casts snark, it was ineffectiveIn post 383, Sando wrote:
Ignoring it is by far and away the safest play. You're literally attacking me for agreeing, how is that safe?In post 380, BuJaber wrote:But basically A and B suck for scum. They will likely bring a lot of suspicion on them. The person with the meta read would definitely pursue it at a minimum even if others ignore it.Sando casts WIFOM- Sando
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[quote="In post 392, OkaPoka"][/quote]
This is just silly.
Enigma has been acting scummy - per your own 387 amongst other things
Enigma's wagon has formed in a scummy wagon - I'd agree with you there
One suggests he's scum, one suggests he's town, I can 100% guarantee we're wrong on one of those, and right on the other. I don't know why you consider the wagon one definitive.- Sando
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What changed between 392 and now?In post 415, OkaPoka wrote:svs is engima scum and enigma wagon is also scum- Sando
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At a minimum you went from a very definitive with no room for movement to a "maybe" based on no new information.In post 419, OkaPoka wrote:my 412 should answer your question, no?- Sando
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Just to reiterate for everyone what A, B and C are:In post 389, BuJaber wrote:I'm right about this. And you agreeing with me about it doesn't automatically make you scum. Incidentally option C is also a viable option for town because townies are honest and forthcoming. The difference between town and scum is that town don't have to worry about getting suspected too much, so options A and B are less problematic. (Though if a townie picks option A that means that either the guy talking about them is scum for faking the meta read or the guy is clueless about the townie's meta and needs to be corrected).
Yes I am but if you had picked option A or B you'd have even more people attacking you I suspect.
So firstly, you're not right about this, ignoring is by far and away the safest and best option for scum.
Secondly, what you're saying here is that because Brass referenced me if I (C) agree with him, you think I'm scum. If I (A) disagree (B) ignore him, I'm going to be seen as scummy...
So you're saying that I'm always going to be scumread by people no matter what I do, for something someone else said about me, before that person has even flipped.
Your argument is so ass-backwards that I'm honestly trying to wrap my head around how you've come to this conclusion. Alternatively, you're scum and scrambling to defend a terrible, terrible scumcase.- Sando
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You're making out that he scum/town read me based on meta. He said that:In post 432, BuJaber wrote:Let's say 3 games is a good enough sample to make me question my reality. So the next 3 games that someone analyzes your meta, ignore them.
I'm not scum with both other 4's
I could be scum with one other 4
I could be scum with the 3s or 6s
He also intimated I could be scum with no double-ups
None of that is saying I am scum, scummy, or anything along those lines, it's pure setup speculation.
This is a meta read, note I'm explicitly calling him town. Yes, if he ignored me if I'd said scum then he'd be getting some questions. Ignoring something that is not a case and not talking alignment is not going to generate questions.
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I was the only person he felt confident giving a read on, but again, he did not say I was scummy or townie, he just said that I don't get a pass. He also references all double-ups/triple-ups.In post 436, BuJaber wrote:Yes but his setup spec was about you specifically and what you would do as scum.
He didn't apply it to all 3 people who picked 4.- Sando
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Others are telling you exactly what I'm telling you, you don't want to listen to people and would rather double down on a bad argument.In post 440, BuJaber wrote:Believe me I'd love to find out that I'm wrong about what is scummy or not.
In post 423, skitter30 wrote:i don't really think this is a good reason to scumread him and i feel like the reasoning is kinda weak and ignores context- Sando
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That's just the part you've decided to engage with. You've also:In post 455, BuJaber wrote:But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.
- Said that scum definitively is playing optimally whilst accusing me of doing research, research which shows 4 is the most commonly townpicked number
- Specifically said that based on a single persons post about me, no matter what my reaction, I'd be scummy. This is bad enough when it's based on a post that I make, but when it's someone else making a post it crosses into absurdity.- Sando
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Shit, sorry Brass, all the best.In post 458, brassherald wrote:@Mod my fiancee and I just broke up, I'm going to be a mess for a few days, just replace me please.- Sando
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You're trying to tell the person that interacted with me about case I was about to bring on you and waited over a VLA to make, that it's simply OMGUS?In post 487, BuJaber wrote:If he were the first attacker I'd say his stubbornness would be ai, but considering his case on me is an omgus counter reaction I'm failing to see the scum motivation to do all this.
Shade shant work for you here scumbo!- Sando
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There's zero risk of this for me, I haven't finished any games as scum since returning to the site (unless you count a 5min marathon game), and no-one is going to take seriously a scumgame from 10 years ago as part of a meta read.In post 488, BuJaber wrote:The point wasn't clear in the quote. I was saying that in scenario A if scum disagree with someone's analysis of their scum meta snd then that someone linked a past game as evidence the scum would be caught and lynched.- Sando
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I care not about your scumread on me, I care that you're trying to cast shade on me to discredit my case.In post 492, BuJaber wrote:Are you reading? That point is in your favor- Sando
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He could not possible have provided evidence to show that I'm wrong, even if I had decided to "lie" (is it really lying? Whatever) and disagreed with him. It does not exist...this is my only account, you can have a look for yourself. Won't take you long, any completed game from this year in my history is me as town (other than a marathon game).In post 495, BuJaber wrote:And you really are very comfortable with this group if you think you can avoid a lynch had you disagreed with brass amd he provided evidence to show that you are wrong.
Why would we ignore something huge like that? If it got down to brass bringing in past games he would successfully make it a 1v1 and if you ended up looking like a liar you would be lynched first.
I could have done a, b or c, and no-one would have or should have batted an eyelid, and certainly no-one could have provided evidence to gainsay it. This is an absolutely terrible, atrocious line of accusation from you.
In your own words, whichever option I went with you'd have expected me to be scumread. Given that's based on me reacting to someone elses words, how can you not see that this is an absolutely terrible way to scumhunt?!?!?!- Sando
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Lol ok when I said there's no records of me being scum, I didn't expect a 10 minute QL to finish my "current" scumgame, so there's now one for you to look at if you want.
CJ is as townie as I've ever seen him, enigma flip won't change anything there for me one way or the other.In post 499, BuJaber wrote:How would you feel about oka/CJ if enigma flips scum, and if enigma flips town?
Oka I struggle to read, he's completely illogical, and I find that sort of person very hard to read. I've only seen him play as town against my scum, I'll have some thoughts EOD, but if say me and you decided to finish the Enigma wagon off right now, I would have nothing to contribute on Oka regarding the Enigma flip.- Sando
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You're making some sense here though, which is different from when I've seen you as town, so I'm assuming scum hereIn post 501, OkaPoka wrote:im pretty easy to read if you just assume im town which i am so its a good assumption
do the right thing- Sando
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It's outside of his scum game and his town game.In post 551, vulcan logician wrote:I don't trust your "super-towniness" ceej... it's a bit uncharacteristic.
a) Which way has he gone, more townie or more scummie?
b) Which is it closer to?- Sando
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Dis is bad, don't say this sort of stuff, it's poisoning the well. By saying this, you're preemptively excusing Enigma looking to lynch anyone but themselves, something scum do a lot more than town. You're also muddying the water of others looking to run a counter-wagon to Enigma.In post 606, OkaPoka wrote:enigma if u dont find a viable lynch u become the viable lynch- Sando
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I'm back! Too many flights!
So I get what skitter is saying about the Enigma wagon, not sure I agree, but the principle is sound. Not sure why she doesn't follow through with the analysis and look into the people involved or not involved in the wagon. Strikes me as a very long and roundabout way to say "Enigma is town" rather than actually scumhunting. See her points about scum being happy with gamestate...doesn't progress the gamestate.- Sando
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He contributed well in a generally townie fashion. He's not a D1 lynch imo, but no, I'm not lock-towning him or anything. I tend to think Cardi's schtick comes from town much more often than scum, but I have no data to back that up, just a gut read on that situation.In post 748, BuJaber wrote:Has anyone actually given a reason why brass is town? Or is it just y'all feel enigma/whoever is scummier?- Sando
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This is kinda what I was looking for. It felt like a lot of busy-work to come to an "enigma is town" conclusion and then not follow through with the implications of that. You're not a "not follow through" kinda gal.In post 771, skitter30 wrote:wrt scum on the wagon i'm townreading ruru and to a certain extent cj, and ofrhz's vote made a lot of sense to me in that context, so if there were scum on it i think it's in {ausuka, sky}
what do you think about invisibility?
Invisibility in my lynchpool fo sho. I think Enigma's vote just now says there's one scum in those two. I generally prefer Enigma over Invisibility though.
Skitter/AP/Cardi/CJ are firmly in my not-lynch today.
Enigma/Invis/Vulcan/BuJaber are my happy to lynch today, in no particular order.
Everyone else I need more convincing or less time on the clock to get a lynch out of me.- Sando
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MetaIn post 781, OkaPoka wrote:why is AP in your not-lynch today?
Ok sorry.
General jovial nature, while 277 is a pretty in-depth post that I don't think comes from scum (when combined with other non-serious posts). There's more to progressing game-state than just voting, and he's contributing imo. He's not in my town-pool, that's just CJ at this stage, but I think he's a terrible lynch today.- Sando
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Because it's a self serving vote from Enigma.In post 793, skitter30 wrote:why the bolded?
i think your argument with bujaber is indicative of a difference in playstyles tbh; i think he legitimately found you agreeing with brass to be scummy which is why he kept on harping on about it; it kinda reminded me of when i get tunneled on something and won't drop it and just keep arguing it do death even
and wrt ap's jovial nature i'm honestly kinda reminded of jungle republic here where he did very little for most of day1 and didn't really push anyone; most of his posts that day were jokes or memes or just kinda being there
If you think that you're not reading my argument. I'm saying BuJaber has manufactured a situation where literally no matter what I said, he'd find me scummy. As part of that he thinks me agreeing with Brass was scummy, which I think is wrong. What's blatantly scummy is the manufactured scenario.
Jovial nature + 277 is why I'm TRing him, it's a combo deal.- Sando
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If Vig shot Ruru N1 they're not the greatest, so I'm gonna assume they didn't.In post 839, Skygazer wrote:If a vig shot the number one draft pick for fake claiming PGO then that'd be really stupid. Honestly pretty likely that scum had gotten that pick if they felt safe enough to make that kill.
Just to note, a skygazer vanilla says they picked Jailer/Tracker and failed, and thus also knew 100% ruru was lying. Oka can be considered to have a 50% idea if they chose the same, below that I'd say no-one would assume.
So yes, I'd say if mafia end up not having the pgo slot then we can probably start looking pretty hard at Skygazer.- Sando
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No they didn't actually say it.In post 868, OkaPoka wrote:where did skygazer say this ?
But if we get to the point that we know, that tells us (says to us) that Skygazer picked what Ruru picked (or didn't pick, I'm assuming that's not true) and therefore knew what Ruru was. Actually may have thought it was the tracker even, making them a top target.- Sando
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You're right, you gotta be vanilla, I'm running too many threads in my head.In post 884, Skygazer wrote:How exactly does a town PGO/vig say I'm scum if I'm not vanilla?
Vanilla is not 100% scum on you though, probable, but not 100%.
Oh wait, I hadn't considered it, but Oka vanilla with you as scumbuddies is an out-there option, but meh, too deep down the rabbit hole for now, since at that point RBing into the kill is the more likely option.- Sando
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Are you seriously saying this after double voting me and not answering my question?In post 892, OkaPoka wrote:but thanks for making a pointless post <3
My reads haven't markedly changed since I posted them yesterday, but then I haven't looked for any conf/deny links between Invis yet.- Sando
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Yes, I've only seen you blindly sheep onto me, you're not doing that here, why?In post 894, OkaPoka wrote:what question? you want me to say what's special here?- Sando
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Literally the entirety of your case on someone that a few days ago was "unreadable"...yeah righto.In post 845, OkaPoka wrote:i think this post is just to cover his tracks- Sando
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It's a fairly painless fakeclaim and she did it with no pressure, so a PGO/Vig would feel no real need to counter/kill. It also makes scum hesitant to kill her, unless they somehow know she's lying, either by being it or happening to be Sky and picking jailer themselves.In post 908, BuJaber wrote:-Can someone help me understand what ruru's strategy was? I don't get the town fakeclaim. A townie who knows she's lying will counterclaim and ruru likely gets lynched. And scum who know she's lying will NK her. And I think that's what happened. It's the most likely explanation in my mind.- Sando
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Enjoy, Spain is awesome.In post 912, Ausuka wrote:(just crossposting this over all of my games to say i'm going to spain for two weeks and won't have access to PC. i'm not on much nowadays anyway so my activity shouldn't, like, dramatically decrease, but i'll be less able to read through the game, make quotes, etc.) - Sando
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