OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[ofrhz]

VOTE: okapoka

[ofrhz]

wait i'm stupid

oka is probably town

VOTE: bujaber

[ofrhz]

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

let's not

[ofrhz]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

why would he be a good lynch exactly

[ofrhz]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

why would he be a good lynch exactly

Because the below assumption assumes that Oka is town.
If Oka is scum then he could have said that stuff because he knows they didn't coordinate.

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

Assuming scum didn't pick the same numbers is still WIFOM-y though. Like scum can just pick two of the same numbers and use that to "prove" they're not scum together

[ofrhz]

What made you first suspect oka, and then change your mind?

Your first vote clearly wasn't random if you needed a reason to change it.

When ruru in'd into this game, she made a long post in the queue thread explaining in detail that she would unequivocally pick 1 in the draft as either alignment. This part of the post has since been edited out

I think it's highly likely that scum knew ruru would pick 1 based on the picks (no one else picked 1 and no one picked 2, which I think is unusual) and because they could talk N0.

When oka voted ruru with his reasoning, I thought it was bad, because ruru had already stated plainly that she would pick 1 before she even got her rolecard.

But then I realized oka probably didn't see ruru's original post, and didn't have the knowledge that I think scum had.

[ofrhz]

Is this how you normally are?

Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.

VOTE: ofrhz

please don't feel that way. it was sass and not to intentionally make you feel bad

[ofrhz]

ODDLY FORMAL GREETING

EXPRESSION OF SURPRISE THAT A GAME ON MAFIASCUM DOT NET WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO START STARTED

EXCUSE FOR MISSING RVS

RVS VOTE

VOTE: AP

uhhh wtf ruru

pedit:

I'll be a good Janet I promise

[ofrhz]

Purposefully not going into details here, but I think I see the town motivation behind what ruru is doing. ruru is likely town

[ofrhz]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75474

i'm having a lot of trouble seeing the person who kept posting to herself 'i am town' in her scum pt (i'm pretty sure this is last scumgame on site barring a marathon game last week) trying to pull any of these things off as scum tbh

Ok her scum play is sooooooooo very different to what we see here. As scum she posted meaningful discussions and fake analysis. Here, it sounds like she has a posting restriction ...

it is so different that it seems almost forced

.

you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?

[ofrhz]

I think CJ is town

[ofrhz]

skitter is also probably town

[ofrhz]

you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?

Yep.

Have you played with ruru as town or read any of her towngames?

[ofrhz]

VOTE: enigma

[ofrhz]

Yeh just read 721 she is spontaneous, but helpful at least with content. Here i feel is quite different - more random: no content here ... plus awkward non-town-beneficial choice/claim/play for no1 seed.

No games with anyone here .. haven't been on site for a loooooong time

You may also be interested in purgatory where town!ruru entered the game claiming miller: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76247

In general, it's a bit odd that you would look at one person's scumgame where they played very differently and suggest that they're purposefully changing their scumgame. i mean it's possible but not very probable. it also kind of jumps the gun, since it seems like you didn't read any of her towngames for comparison initially.

[ofrhz]

i think oka is town

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

is this just a sheep?

Nope. That was the slot that actually got me pulling my hair off.

Al he seems to do is nitpick anything that anyone else says.

what are you referring to here?

It looks like he wants to stand out as "doing something different" but -at the same time- nothing productive. He's spewing doubt in every single case or line of reasoning anyone else tries to build upon and that's it.

do you mean that he is trying to be contrary for the sake of it?

[ofrhz]

i think oka is town

Why?

he objects to things that he disagrees with, such as his analysis of Enigma's rvs vote and 133, and I'm not getting the vibe that he is being contrary for the sake of it. He hasn't really made any logical leaps in his contrary opinions, so I think he believes them

[ofrhz]

^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:

So you find it more likely that ruru is being honest about her intentions with the PGO play than potentially fakeclaiming and being an actual vigilante which is mafia aligned?

IMO strongest first pick for mafia would be the vigilante, gives you an extra NK and it removes PGO from play. That or roleblocker which would remove Doctor from play.

What I am saying is that ruru may have not played it optimally for town but maybe she did play it optimally for scum. So now the question is how good is ruru at mafia.

In contrast to a post like this:

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

bolded part is just reachy

[ofrhz]

^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:

if she was vengeful then she would run the risk of getting cc'd by the actual pgo/vig right?

unless she knew real pgo/vig was on her team, adding an extra layer of wifom

i find things like the bolded to be reach-y as well

yeah kinda, though I read it as more oka playing off of a thought enigma had, not an actual idea he was trying to push

[ofrhz]

But is there town motivation?

Again, beating a dead horse. If there's no

scum motivation

it's a town action.

i actually agree with this. in hindsight, this post was unnecessary and looks like busywork.

AP can be town

[ofrhz]

although tbh i'm now thinking oka is too annoying to be scum

[ofrhz]

I don't like the Enigma wagon, Enigma's ISO has some good questions, and good thoughts. That's a town ISO as far as I can tell.

Could you point out these good questions and thoughts?

[ofrhz]

because engima's reason for scumhunting seem to be town aligned, albeit disagreable. i can see the town motivation of trying to bring statistics into the game and trying to scumhunt using theory.

invis might as well post fluff as his reason to lynch ppl

in invisibility's past town games, his ISO is always fluffy. I don't think this is AI for him

[ofrhz]

the impression i got from reading his scumgame in Coalition was that he was less flippant and more cooperative there. so for example, i think 253 is more likely to come from town than scum invis

basically, if you're expecting paragraphs or even sentences of analysis from invis, i highly doubt you'll get that from him from either alignment.

[ofrhz]

what if you hypo inno'd someone and then you end up scumreading them later?

yeah i can tell you from experience that this kind of sucks. you can still push your other scumreads though

[ofrhz]

I still feel oka is kinda scummy but can't justify that? My strongest scumread outside Enigma is brassherald.

If enigma is town there's scum in {ofr, skitter} IMO.

why?

[ofrhz]

Believe me I'd love to find out that I'm wrong about what is scummy or not.

Others are telling you exactly what I'm telling you, you don't want to listen to people and would rather double down on a bad argument.

i don't really think this is a good reason to scumread him and i feel like the reasoning is kinda weak and ignores context

1 person. Who shared an opinion. Who could be wrong.

is this still talking about sando's reaction to brass's analysis of his scumgame? if it is, then fwiw, i agree with sando and skitter

[ofrhz]

Let's make sure we're all talking about the same thing.

Skitter said she thought my reasoning is weak and she doesn't think Sando is scummy.

But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.

Okay I think some of your back and forth makes more sense here. Aside from the “Sando agreeing with brass” thing, do you have a read on Sando?

[ofrhz]

@Mod my fiancee and I just broke up, I'm going to be a mess for a few days, just replace me please.

Sorry to hear that brass. Take it easy

[ofrhz]

Sando - leantown
skitter30 - town
AP - null
brassherald - slight townlean
BuJaber - townlean
Ausuka - town
Skygazer - null
vulcan logician - siteflaked?
ceejayvinoya - null
ruru - townlean actually
ofrhz - town
OkaPoka - townlean
Enigma - null
{AP, Skygazer, Ceejay, Enigma, vulcan}
VOTE: vulcan logician

Why did you pick Vulcan, the guy who you think siteflaked, here over other null reads?

[ofrhz]

First point can you show me where.
Second point yes that's my case on you but that wasn't what ofrhz waa agreeing/disagreeing with.
I need to know when people are disagreeing with me about a general opinion on mafia strategy and when they are agreeing/disagreeing on a specific read

i was trying to disagree with "sando is scummy for agreeing with brass's read on him, which is scummier than simply ignoring it"

although wrt to sando's case, it feels like bujaber genuinely believes that agreeing is the scummy thing to do here, so i don't see this as scum-motivated, even if i don't agree with the foundations behind this push.

sando reads like town who has been wronged

[ofrhz]

honestly orfhz might be the scum on the wagon

i'm confused why you
a) think the wagon is scum-motivated when you were not independently townreading enigma as far as i can tell. rather, your logic kind of goes in the opposite direction: "the wagon built up quickly, so it is scum-motivated and is on town." how do you know the wagon isn't comprised of townies on the scummiest person in game?
b) assume because there is scum on the wagon, that i am scum on the wagon. is it because i left a vote without explanation?

because she seems to be asking questions and making comments but not really pushing anything hard

wat
i commented on enigma a while ago
if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

[ofrhz]

i commented on enigma a while ago
if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

Could you give an example of what I didn't respond to? Thanks.

no, this was at oka, who said i wasn't "getting my hands dirty"
i asked invisibility to explain his questionable vote on VL, who hasn't responded yet
and i also threw a question at brass to explain what he found towny about his ISO, though i guess that will never get answered

[ofrhz]

if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

Your timeline on me so far:
You asked me two questions,
1. Could ruru be playing differently to throw us off her scum game - yes
2. Have I read any of town ruru games or played with her - no

Then you voted me without commenting on my responses

Then you havn't pushed me since

I commented on why I thought you were scummy in 216. It can be broadly summarized as using reachy logic to arrive at a conclusion that isn’t very probable

I haven’t asked you follow up questions because I haven’t seen anything new to push without reiterating what someone else said

[ofrhz]

I'm back after a prod and fully caught up. At this point, I am town reading ofrhz and okapoka on tone.

Ruru's claim has me townslotting her for the moment. It makes sense for meta reasons.

Skygazer: nullish to town. @skygazer, my "peppered in" paranoia of Ceej is warranted. He really isn't usually this townie as town. I have my eye on him, but, of course, that's a shit reason to sumread him.

No scumleans so far, sorry.

What posts led you to town-toneread me?

[ofrhz]

i could have sworn i responded
i was going to say i was waiting for a vulcan prod
VOTE: ceejay

i'm confused

you voted for him because he wasn't here (and in fact, you think he might have siteflaked), but once he was actually in the game, you removed your vote on him?

[ofrhz]

this post is really bad; specifically the ceejay wagon, which is complete busywork. he's literally saying that he has no reason to scumread cjv.

the vote accomplishes nothing and i don't see how it was meant to accomplish anything.

i'm interested in why you didn't call out invisibility's vote here. his votes were on inactive players (in particular, a player invis thought may not even be checking the site), but as soon as the inactive players returned, he unvoted them, so literally no pressure was applied by his vote.

[ofrhz]

i'm not sure how many of cardi's posts i actually understood

Hokay Im gonna say skitter,AP,ruru,ohrfrz probably town. I think Invinibilty,Skygazer n Engima are all hot maybes. VOTE: OkaPoka is where the shmoney is for me righnow.

Do "hot maybes" = townleans?

[ofrhz]

the impression i got from reading his scumgame in Coalition was that he was less flippant and more cooperative there. so for example, i think 253 is more likely to come from town than scum invis

basically, if you're expecting paragraphs or even sentences of analysis from invis, i highly doubt you'll get that from him from either alignment.

i think you forgot to write something here

unless you just wanted to quote it for emphasis

[ofrhz]

@cardi

- have you played with me before?

why is AP in your not-lynch today?

Meta

Ok sorry.

General jovial nature, while

277 is a pretty in-depth post that I don't think comes from scum

(when combined with other non-serious posts). There's more to progressing game-state than just voting, and he's contributing imo. He's not in my town-pool, that's just CJ at this stage, but I think he's a terrible lynch today.

I kind of agree with this. 277 reminded me of when AP was reading too much into one of his scumreads in another game I played with town!him (specifically, in Pick Your Poison when AP had some conspiracy theory that ruru and tw were scum together based on their RVS votes)

[ofrhz]

I think I'm here right now (town to scum):

skitter, bujaber, ceejay, ruru, okapoka
sando, AP
skygazer, vulcan, enigma
ausuka, cardi, invis

[ofrhz]

VOTE: invis

wagon ho

[ofrhz]

i think invis flipping goon makes sky, vl, and oka slightly more likely to be town

[ofrhz]

If a town vig shot ruru, this might be useful information to share? No judging
Could help understanding reactions to the PGO claim, and also make a bit of sense of the night actions.

I disagree with this. If a town vig did shoot ruru, they're effectively a VT now and this would narrow the pool of possible TPRs for scum.

[ofrhz]

how about we just do some good ol fashioned scumhunting without the setup spec

pretty sure ausuka is in this game more than invis is, brass.

Invisibility is in this game?

VOTE: Invisibility

I'd rather have the pressure vote on someone I forgot was in the game than Ausuka who I at least remembered.

this kind of reads as awkward distancing

id hope that people would talk more when they are mentioned

also i don't see how this has anything to do with scumhunting

I'm scumhunting, I'm just not confident enough in any of my reads to make cases.

Plus, I find its very hard to form a read on someone if they are not participating in the game.

That's just me, though, I might be crazy to want to base my reads on like content.

I don't like the Enigma wagon, Enigma's ISO has some good questions, and good thoughts. That's a town ISO as far as I can tell.

Vulcan Logician promised more content in 240 and never followed up, I'd like to know why. I know the dude only has 3 posts, but they include him claiming he's a fairly active player. I will allow him more posts before making an actual read, but it makes me uneasy.

Invisibility is scum.

BuJaber, I'm leaning scum on.

I'll find the last scum tomorrow or something, going to the beach now.

first brass has no strong scumreads to explain away his pressure voting inactives, yet 30 posts later he conjures up a confident scumread on invis. where did this newfound confidence come from?

VOTE: invisibility if theres more to get from this lil dude I wanna see it. Joinin my mans okapoka ArrArrArr.

okay seems like cardi was basically on the invis wagon for pressure, which by itself is fine

I mean wasting a town investigator on him for a night.

We flip him because he is unreadable

All Im sayins is

0 other votes on invisibility oka be like "this bitch off the table"

3 other votes oka be like "oawww less lynch em"

Looks to me like nothin changed his mind! Skitter skitter talked abt why his content bad... I though she made sense (as usual )... okadude didnt even seem to noticed it, you knowwha Im sayin.

I don't like how Cardi throws shade at Oka's vote after the hammer but joined the wagon directly after Oka's vote

I didnt like how it interactit with his own reasons, obvissly I didnt think it was a bad vote in general?

cardi then tries to scumread for his "inconsistency" in joining the invis wagon, when i think it was pretty evident oka was mainly on the wagon for pressure (which incidentally, is also the same reason cardi was on the wagon), i.e. oka was NOT on the invis wagon to "less lynch em"

for reference, oka's vote was in 784

as a bonus:

currently townleaning brassherald and Sando

i could totally see invis doing a "townlean your scumpartner and another townie" here

as another bonus, if we lynch cardi, i don't have to read her posts

VOTE: cardi

[ofrhz]

I could see ceejay's initial ping vote and easy jump back onto the invis wagon as distancing.

Ofrhz also made that jump relatively quickly and

a decent chunk of their scum leans seemed to be lynch bait iirc

are you talking about cardi? what did you think of my case on cardi / do you have a read on her

[ofrhz]

ofrhz -> also meh. seemed to hop on since a wagon was happening and didn't seem bothered by the fact that

one of his other major scumreads had just voted there like two posts before

uhhh tbh i was only on that wagon for pressure and wasn't super strongly scumreading invis (the only thing that pinged me about him was his reaction when he was asked why he was voting for lurkers and immediately unvoting them once they returned). i didn't think the wagon would get hammered so fast.

why would the bolded deter me from joining the wagon? especially considering a few of my strong townreads were already on that wagon, and there's always the possibility of bussing

[ofrhz]

@duckling

, i think bujaber requested replacement

i'm townreading skitter, and the case against her seems weak. in general, i don't like the logic of "there is scum on the enigma wagon" --> "let's look for scum on the enigma wagon," which seems to be the bulk of the case against her.

oka is probably town

vulcan is kinda town by weak meta (he has a town meta of not doing a whole lot d1, his scum meta involves actually trying d1)

ap makes the most sense here, but i also think he is unlikely to confuse his scumpartner with someone else, unless he was faking that part.

i'm more inclined to vote vulcan or ap, but also like... not really all that inclined to vote either.

OK.. so assuming Ausuka's town here makes that lynch pool ideal. Even if she is scum (I don't think she is) and is telling the truth about going for Vig/PGO and not getting it means scum would have believed ruru = Ausuka cannot be scum AND killed ruru.

But what if Ausuka did land Vig/PGO and is now gambitting? That would be a very good way to keep the PRs away AND doe her to survive unsuspected for a couple more days.

DISCUSS before we do anything hasty. We are alead already and we don't want to give scum back the grounds that we had won.

This thought has occurred to me as well, but I'm not sure if scum!ausuka would go for it.

[ofrhz]

i think the draft is how they came up with the pool of {skitter, oka, vulcan, ap} and then went with skitter based on the reasoning in 1000

[ofrhz]

ok fine

VOTE: AP

[ofrhz]

I think I'm here right now (town to scum):

skitter, bujaber, ceejay, ruru, okapoka
sando, AP
skygazer, vulcan, enigma
ausuka, cardi, invis

can you explain more of these reads ofrhz? specifically I'd want to hear the reasoning for your reads on me and cjv.

One more for Ausuka, why were you, after ruru flip, interested in ofrhz (+you/cjv) given she is the last one on the draft?

Nothing to do with the draft! I just thought she was scum.

Me and cjv were the reads I found most questionable.

I would love to see ofrhz answer this actually

answer the bolded?

- voting vulcan for doing not actively contributing when not really scrutinizing invis when he did basically the same thing
- some of your reads don't feel real, especially the push on skitter

You went through the invis votes and singled out Cardi and ofrhz iirc?

like this part. i know you don't have a problem with wagon analysis because you were suggesting we lynch on the enigma wagon before enigma even flipped, which i didn't like either

yesterday, i liked cjv's early pressure on enigma. i still think he's town for initially gutscumreading invis and then the L-1 vote on his wagon

--

pedit: i think AP could have faked that accidental hammer. also if we have to lynch in those four people, i think AP is now the only person i'd be willing to lynch, because i think Invis kind of spewed town!vulcan in 543

[ofrhz]

every other post orfhz makes me want to lynch him/her and the other half makes me think obv!town

.................lol

go take it up with the mod. there aren't supposed to be any mid-game alignment changes in this setup

[ofrhz]

ALL ABOARD THE AP HYPE TRAIN

DESTINATION: VICTORY

CHOO CHOO

[ofrhz]

*looks at draft position*

Lols why bother

Definitely sure AP is lying tho. I'm not seeing anything at all from him that indicates he's the doctor.

[ofrhz]

<skitter, cardi, vulcan, music> left

honestly tho looking at how we picked roles you guys could have picked up some solid roles lmao

yeah

tfw

[ofrhz]

Prodge post

Choo choo

[ofrhz]

Vt

Tried to pick 1-shot vig

[ofrhz]

Hmm... I kinda think it’s very possible that vizzy picked jk? It’s a really strong role for scum

[ofrhz]

^ that would mean that Vulcan and skitter can both be town

VOTE: ceejay

[ofrhz]

I’m ok with you just claiming. I’m getting bored

[ofrhz]

PAGETOP

[ofrhz]

QUACK AMIRITE

[ofrhz]

prodge post

will get to this over the weekend

[ofrhz]

not super convinced that vulcan will flip scum tbh

[ofrhz]

Go ahead and hammer, somebody. I think the best thing for the gamestate right now is for town to wake up.

(At this point, people are operating too heavily on assumptions.)

So, hammer, get all the info the night cycle provides, and start the next day cycle fresh.

Also, I think there is scum on my wagon.... peace....

i don't think this comes from scum

[ofrhz]

music has an underwhelming ISO, but in all fairness, the game has slowed down significantly since he replaced in. i remember thinking bujaber was kinda towny

VOTE: cardi

[ofrhz]

Ok fine

VOTE: vulcan

[ofrhz]

@ofrhz: can you talk to me about what makes you wanna bus on someone?

i'm not averse to bussing. i've voted my scumpartner on page 1 before, because their rvs entrance was questionable (it was a newbie game) and i did it for the towncred. funnily enough, i remember getting scumread for that. i don't think i've actually lynched my partner unless they were conf scum (i also only have 1.5 scumgames onsite if you want to read them yourself. it's a pretty short read)

[ofrhz]

Based on Sando's (only?) recently completed scumgame, I see some differences between his scumgame there and his play here
- some of his posts, townreads in particular, in his scumgame were borderline tmi

Spoiler:

VOTE: not_mafia

why are u doing naked votes and doing nothing of substance

I'm told it's his meta and NAI.

ive played with him a couple years back and although he was trolly he was a lot more substantive

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

I think those that have played with him a decent amount will be fairly confident of reading him, it's a bit of a "ohhh, that's how it works" kind of realisation and you feel confident about it after that. This is also telling me the vig has probably played with N_M a few times since N_M is basically universally seen as vig-bait from what I've seen, so the vig either got blocked, N_M is SK (neither of these are likely) or the vig is confident of N_M read.

CJ flat out isn't Mafia and I very much doubt is SK.

He doesn't proactively make cases like he did on MM yesterday, he doesn't answer back like he did with me yesterday. By far the scummiest thing he did was the late vote with no rationalisation on MM, and if MM had flipped town I'd have run at him hard, but he flipped red and CJ doesn't bus at all that I've seen, and that was not what a bus looks like. It could be SK but I don't think so, mostly because I think Ejj is.

I still think from early interactions with MM that Ejj doesn't seem genuine, especially compared to his later case on MM, I think he's SK.

VOTE: Ejj

About the Night action: 1 NK only either means (a) Mafia hit the SK & Vig got RB'd, (b) Vig hit the SK & Mafia got RB'd, (c) both SK & Mafia targeted Blackstar & Vig got RB'd (can't see the town Vig targeting Blackstar to be honest), (d) Someone holstered (and you can repeat all possibilities for where the other NK went).

So I think you're saying this here already, but 100% the SK targeted Black, the SK is one-shot immune from RB as well as getting NKd, so there's no way to stop the SK kill N1 if they're alive, which they are.

who do u think maf targetted

Manatee was pretty conf-town with a lolhammer on scum.
CJ was conf-town with MM flip
AP should be TRd pretty hard this game but that's a personal read, mafia might not agree.

As Mafia I'd have hit one of those, I have thoughts on PRs so I'm not going to go deeper there. Based on wagon dynamics and flip I'm honestly amazed CJ/Mana didn't die.

From this game:

I think trying to scum hunt through draft and setup is gunna be difficult. I mean scum can easily claim VT and choose a safe failed pick. Can we just find the last scum through their scummy play/intentions instead?

I still feel CJ as potential last scum due to interactions on the vulcan cw yesterday - and feel there is likely to be scum on my wagon D1, with CJ being the logical choice from PoE.

cj is town

100%

Can someone help me understand this part?

Yeah but we did it the old fashioned way with AP and I wanna kill a scum with mechanics spec, *huff*

I'm not against giving CJ another look, his early game play, D1 especially, was particularly within his town-range though. Honestly though he's much harder to read when his scummies are getting killed, he's a much easier read based on his interactions with town. Given we're talking an interaction with who I'd probably put in my top ~2 for scummiest, not sure that "interaction with Vulcan" is going to get far with me.

I also think CW spec is never particularly effective.

another thing is that he expressed a very strong townread on cjv in both games. however, here he was willing to reconsider his read on cj. and in general, i don't think sando's reads this game have been completely out there.

the only thing that read as possibly tmi was:

Ausuka picked vig/pgo and rolled vanilla so we know that a vig/pgo has to be above her in the draft and that a vig/pgo is likely scum due to the ruru kill

I don't think Oka is vig/pgo, my understanding of his playstyle is he'd tunnel the fuck out of ruru for the fakeclaim and shoot him overnight.

this was the only interesting thing that immediately jumped out at me from his ISO. here he kind of assumed that oka was town, even though we had just established a lynchpool of 4 people with oka in it (the whole ausuka tried to pick 1-shot vig thing). his townreads in 965 also don't list oka as a townread.

[ofrhz]

i don't understand the strength of the townreads on cardi

[ofrhz]

Wait, why didn't Enigma die N2? The CC wasn't an actual CC, it was a claim to know 100% that AP wasn't the doc.

Cop and Role-cop are the two powers that would also know this. Scum could probably deduce from play (I haven't checked this but I'm assuming) that Enigma wasn't cop, since guilties get a very distinct play against them I think. But Role-cop? You'd DEFINITELY kill a potential role-cop.

Leaving Enigma alive says they probably thought it was the real doc. That says the DIDN'T think Enigma was role-cop or cop, why?

My guess they have it. They can't have thought Oka was either since townie up that high hasn't claimed it, so if they picked it they got it...

It's really likely that AP activated his PGO ability N1 after that lolhammer

So the rolecop/cop couldn't have known that AP wasn't the doctor since there was only one town death --> Enigma wasn't a cop. I don't think we can conclusively say that scum have a cop basically

[ofrhz]

What are some things that make a vote on scum look like a bus vote to you?

Hmm, maybe having a questionable reason for jumping on a wagon on scum when the lynch is very likely to go through? like a combination of the timing and the reason for voting

Generally speaking, I'm not great at identifying SvS interactions. Off the top of my head, I can recall one instance where I identified bussing, but that was only because I was independently scumreading the people on the wagon and the person who was being run up had already flipped scum lol

[ofrhz]

voting someone in rvs isn't really bussing imo; that's more like distancing; bussing is more like proclaiming your partner to be scum and voting them early and staying on till lynch

link the scumgames? I don't think i've seen scum!you before

Yeah I also kept pushing them for a little bit after the vote

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=76009
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=76121

i don't understand the strength of the townreads on cardi

basically i don't think that someone with her playstyle/thought processes fake-claims cop and retracts it that way as scum; i feel like she's pretty methodological and careful and thinks things through pretty carefully and the fake-claim was a haphazrd mess that just sort of invited suspicion onto her and i just dont' really see her doing that as scum tbh.

like i think it was kinda anti-town because it made her slot rather wifom-y but i just don't know if it's *scumy*

i think her main motivation was trying to get herself nk'd cuz she was kinda over the game at that point, although i htink she's back into it

also she's been pretty townie (especially over the last couple of days) independent of the claim

what are you thinking about her now?

Her thought processes are ok in that they're internally consistent, but she hasn't done anything that is really towny. She has kind of gone for low hanging fruit for most of the game. D1 she was scumreading okapoka, who after reading Donner Party, is kind of an easy mislynch, but this isn't scum indicative for cardi unless she had already played with Oka. Vulcan was also kind of LHF, but also a lot of townies went after vulcan. Her predecessor was lean scum. Basically, I would typically metadive here to get a more confident read, but there is no meta for her.

The only thing I could see as kind of town is the hypo inno thing; I think I see your point about the hypo inno cop in that I don't think scum would hypo inno someone they literally just voted for, so that's reckless in a sort of towny way. However, she was less towny than Bujaber (no real read on Music/Mylo), and I am leaning towards Sando town after reading his newbie game with CJV.

aside what do you think about bujaber's rep-out?

I think it's towny, but I can't be super sure unless I metadive Bujaber to see if he overreacts like that as town or is capable of that ate as scum.

oka's kinda the odd one out and i'm not sure why they waited a night to kill enigma

he was kinda scumreading ausuka but i'm pretty sure ausuka is town so i don't think he was killed for his scumreads unless they were like trying to frame her or something; also looking at how he jumped on the ap wagon i don't know if he could have been pushed as a viable ap partner

the obvious answer is that he had a high draft-pick so maybe they just thought he was a decently strong tpr?

i don't think he was super widely townread at that point iirc

so you think that last scum is rolecop (and thus didn't think enigma was a rolecop) and lied about it? practically speaking tho do u think there is a way for us to identify said rolecop? because otherwise this is just setup spec that isn't super helpful rn

Taking into consideration about what i said about scum likely knowing Enigma was a doctor/rb, I would guess the bolded is why oka was nk'ed. Although oka did kind of softclaim useless tpr, so I'm not sure

[ofrhz]

For Ausuka to be scum here, she would’ve had to fakeclaim picking 1-shot vig, a slot that her own scum partner picked. Why would she do that?

[ofrhz]

(apologies this feels slightly awkward asking cuz i've been playing with you for while - what pronoun?)

i keep forgetting you didn't play A50's Sharing is Caring

I'm a she

---

I guess Bujaber's rep out isn't as towny as I originally thought. I was also mis-remembering Bujaber's rep out post (it was more defensive rather than accusatory, which is how I originally remembered it). I still would like to look at some of his towngames to see if he does the same thing as town though. Or better yet, if we can just get a read on Mylo.................... that'd be great

[ofrhz]

Ofrhz has been on every lynch.

I AM THE LYNCH GATEKEEPER

[ofrhz]

I think Mylo has demonstrated ~carefree tone~

I'm at:
Skitter, Ausuka
Mylo
Sando
Cardi

[ofrhz]

sando why do you think cardi is town

[ofrhz]

we ummmm may need to reconsider the skitter townread

[ofrhz]

PAGETOP!

[ofrhz]

Yeah I like what I seen from ofrhz

1662 is a good theoretical thought about somethin they would know as scum
1663 is believable and both of they eod votes look pretty convincingly not SvS to me

these are weird things to townread me for. one is for offering up information that i would know as scum. the other is for offering self-meta

[ofrhz]

who you scumreading mylo

[ofrhz]

I need to reread this this weekend. yell at me if i don't

[ofrhz]

I wasn't even thinking about the pairing..

Scum vig makes sense for ruru given the pgo claim.

As town she should have either picked a bad power and attracted the scum kill or blocked a strong scum power before scum could take it.
Town pgo shouldn't claim.


Why is starting wagons a bad thing, stargazer ? Or whoever asked

Ftr you can say whatever you want about my play or my posts.

Even if something frustrates me I won't get offended.

We all scumhunt differently. I've had people say I'm an asshole as town so it'd be unfair if I didn't also accept whatever gets thrown at me.

But to answer the question I find it scummy to disagree with someone who has shared their opinion and given reasons for their opinion without also stating why you disagree.
- it might be laziness
- it might be a way to reduce the person's influence
- it might be a way to make them change the subject (especially if they are on the right track)
- it might be a way to discourage them from sharing their thoughts (this one is rare I don't think people do this often but there is definitely an advantage for scum if town talk less and when a towny's arguments are met with just 'no' / 'wrong' etc, it can be disheartening) now I'm not discouraged by things like that but unless they're an alt they haven't played with me before and thus wouldn't know this about me.

lol

[ofrhz]

You know...
If she were scum pgo..

She'd probably play it the same way. The scum motivation is to do whatever you want when posting as you can see.

That said ruru, please if town use your limited time alive to share actual insight because I for one am pro-policy lynch for roles like pgo and miller etc.

I think suggesting we PL ruru is more likely to come from town than scum though, since scum knew ruru was lying about her claim

[ofrhz]

Sando didn’t comment on ruru’s PGO claim at all, which is a little bizarre

[ofrhz]

Sando didn’t comment on ruru’s PGO claim at all, which is a little bizarre

Ehhh neither did Ausuka

[ofrhz]

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

is this just a sheep?

I feel like AP hinted at his read directly before that post, and joined when he saw there are continued reads like that from others.

For the record, OkaPoka is a gut read of mine from when I first voted him, and he has done nothing to fix the scum feels from his slot.

I feel like the brass post is almost too ballsy to come from scum

I also don’t think all three scum would jump on oka like that

[ofrhz]

I'm more than halfway through a bottle of wine, which has given me newfound confidence to GAMESOLVE

[ofrhz]

whew there's some major thirst in this game

i can share my wine if you guys want

[ofrhz]

fuck sake

bujaber was really town

[ofrhz]

why is AP in your not-lynch today?

Meta

Ok sorry.

General jovial nature, while 277 is a pretty in-depth post that I don't think comes from scum (when combined with other non-serious posts). There's more to progressing game-state than just voting, and he's contributing imo. He's not in my town-pool, that's just CJ at this stage, but I think he's a terrible lynch today.

This is a little bit suspicious considering Sando was hoodwinked by wolf!AP in Jungle Republic. I would expect him to put AP as null or qualify his read here somehow

[ofrhz]

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

Wait, this can't be true.. Ausuka's posted?

VOTE: Ausuka

Join the game.

pretty sure ausuka is in this game more than invis is, brass.

Invisibility is in this game?

VOTE: Invisibility

I'd rather have the pressure vote on someone I forgot was in the game than Ausuka who I at least remembered.

These posts are pretty bad

1. I don't know why brass honed in onto Ausuka specifically in this game, since he never saw one of her posts
2. THE THIRD POST READS LIKE REALLY BAD DISTANCING. A pressure vote is kind of meaningless when you admit it as such. So then... why say something like this and then proceed to move your stated pressure vote at all

[ofrhz]

@Sando

Sure but in retrospect, I can see how CJ was unusually town this game

I guess I don't see how AP was super different this game than his wolf!game in Jungle Republic to justify your townread, given your personal experience with him.

I'm not at D2 yet I'm only on page 20-something and tbh I don't remember how your progression on AP went down

[ofrhz]

QUACK

[ofrhz]

if you're town, can you tryhard for like 2 irl days and not keel over and die like vl did

[ofrhz]

can you start with why you are (were?) townreading cardi

[ofrhz]

you've been more reactive than proactive since you've been put under scrutiny, so I didn't really count that interaction with Ausuka

---

I can understand the reasoning behind why you don't want to locktown Ausuka, even if I disagree with it

but to go from "ausuka is not locktown" to "ausuka is scum" is not a trajectory i am following. like ausuka's votes were pretty bad, but cardi's were not much better. Given cardi's reasons for voting invis and the timing of her vote, cardi's vote on invis shouldn't garner her any towncred imo

I think everyone alive right now has demonstrated ~towny thoughts~, so that is also not a good reason to townread cardi or to keep her alive. is there another reason why you guys are townreading cardi? @ skitter too

[ofrhz]

The push on you started when you were asked your scumreads and then a couple of people followed up with that post. Rereading through it just now, it was a combination of skitter and ausuka delving deeper into your reads, which lead to you divulging your Ausuka read and that lead to the 1v1. It still reads as reactive tbh

I'm reluctant to scumread this inconsistency. It's very possible that Ausuka doesn't remember saying "the thing with AP townclears me" as town. As others have pointed out, there were many things that Ausuka could have claimed, and balance of probability dictates that she's likely town here.

I am still interested in your townread in cardi because she's been my top scumread for a while now

[ofrhz]

0. Brass was questionable. I outlined his posts that didn't make sense. Why was he super focused on Ausuka's presence in game but not Invisibility's? He also never responded to Bujaber's meta-read gut scumread on him (the read from Bujaber was basically: brass was more confident in this game, which is similar to his scumgames)
1. Cardi's scumreads have CONSISTENTLY BEEN LOW-HANGING FRUit this entire game
1a. She first scumread okapoka and kept pushing him for a part of D2. Sando, you tried to ML oka in your last scumgame, you should know why this is NAGL
1b. She then tried to go for Vulcan, who was also kind of an easy ML
1c. She's been asking really useless questions today
2. CARDI HAS NOT EXHIBITED TOWNINESS
2a. People who have exhibited towniness:
- Ausuka: her claiming 1-shot vig was completely unnecessary
- Mylo: Bujaber was really town, and Mylo has that carefree tone
- skitter: hasn't done stupid shit like push conf!town TW like she did in her last scumgame
- sando: sorta town by meta but also in your 1v1 with Bujaber, you were really town
- By PoE, Cardi's scum equity is pretty high
- ok, so admittedly this is mostly a PoE scumread. STILL.
3. At this point, with so many townreads, I need a good reason to not vote cardi, and "having logical/towny thought processes" is the only reason I was given by skitter, and that's not a very good reason considering everyone remaining has also demonstrated towny thought processes

pedit: no, I meant reactive as in "you yourself admitted you've checked out of this game, which I think is NAI. But if you're town, try to check in for at least a few more days to obvtown, so we don't have a repeat of the vulcan lynch"

[ofrhz]

ausuka likes to do wagon analysis before the flip, which I think has lead to why she has not been on either scum lynch. I don't think this kind of faulty reasoning is scum indicative for Ausuka because this is something she has done as town in the past. (the game I am referring to: viewtopic.php?t=76282&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go)

both wagons on invis and AP built up REALLY FAST, and ausuka tends to apply the reasoning "this wagon has built up too fast, which means it must be scum-driven," which would explain why she wasn't on either scum lynches.

[ofrhz]

pedit: no, I meant reactive as in "you yourself admitted you've checked out of this game, which I think is NAI. But if you're town, try to check in for at least a few more days to obvtown, so we don't have a repeat of the vulcan lynch"

Ok this first: Why does this need discussion then? It doesn't change content, like it's pretty obvious I had thoughts on Aus around the whole "locktown" and hadn't gotten around to articulating it. What I then articulate isn't changed because I was grudging about it.

are we still talking about the same thing? i'm very confused

[ofrhz]

Well I thought you were scumreading me for "reactiveness", but you say no.

So now I'm thinking you're writing off the Aus argument as "reactiveness". My point is that Aus's actions aren't more or less townie because I'm being reactive (or not) in bringing them up.

- I think ausuka had many possible avenues when she claimed, and she didn't have to claim the 1-shot vig/PGO slot
- Ausuka was really eager to lynch in the AP, skitter, vulcan, and someone else who I don't remember lynchpool, which indicates that she was genuinely hunting for the person who actually had the 1-shot vig/PGO slot
- subpoint: her not voting for AP just happened to be a thing with how fast the wagon built up. I didn't see anything to see that she would've been opposed to an AP wagon had that not happened.
- I think there are also other points to consider, like "would Ausuka out AP here, when AP is probably the better scum player?"
- I also trust sky when she said that ausuka was "essential" or whatever to gamesolving

[ofrhz]

i'm kinda getting a better feel for what sando's thinking right now and there are parallels with how he played jungle republic; also this sounds like it's a hill he's willing to die on and

idk if scum decides to pick a fight here with ausuka who's been kinda widely townread?

I agree with this

[ofrhz]

ughhhhhhhhhh deadline is in less than 3 days

[ofrhz]

Hokay Im gonna say skitter,

AP

,ruru,ohrfrz probably town. I think

Invinibilty

,Skygazer n Engima are all hot maybes. VOTE: OkaPoka is where the shmoney is for me righnow.

I think Invisibility in particular was a weird townlean to have at this stage in the game. The dude was just randomly voting lurkers/people he thought siteflaked and as soon as those people returned, he would unvote and move his vote onto someone else.

[ofrhz]

it's super late so i'm just going to quote some stuff for me to look at tomorrow

Spoiler:

yeah lynching AP tomorrow if this greens. the hammer is honestly worthy of a lynch regardless of anything else imo.

It's possible that I'm not entirely fully caught up so I don't really get what the understanding is. I regard his slot (ignoring the hammer) with a slight distrust because he seems somewhat unmotivated to scumhunt I guess.

Again Sando proves that we come from different planets.

Fuck me for taking the opportunity every game to improve myself and learn from others.

Fuck me for respecting a decision that ruru made consciously and wanting to learn from it.

Fuck me for expressing surprise at someone doing something that never would have occurred to me.

Fuck me for making sure I post when I have something relevant to say even if I want to go off-topic instead of dedicating an entire post to the off-topic thing.

You may have these people fooled but your stubborness doesn't come from being town. You are either just a horrible individual or you're scum. One or the other. This isn't natural townie-offensiveness. You're worn your biased glasses and everything I do looks scummy to me.

Have fun you just ruined my best friend on MS's game for me.

-please replace me TW. I don't have time to play games I don't enjoy.

I hope you're scum I really do. It's better for you as a human and as a player.

weird overreaction

VOTE: skitter30

she was voting the enigma wagon + she is focusing on cardi/ofrhz where there's an argument between them (I know there's a term for this but I'm sleepy and can't remember it sorry) + this is good enough of a case for me.

shitty vote

[ofrhz]

I still don't understand why AP claimed doctor

[ofrhz]

VOTE: cardi

[ofrhz]

VOTE COUNT 5.10

Sando (1)

~ Ausuka,

skitter30 (0)

~

Cardi B (0)

~

Myloninja13 (0)

~

Ausuka (1)

~ Sando,

ofrhz (0)

~

NOT VOTING:

skitter30, Cardi B, ofrhz, Myloninja13,

with 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

day five will end in (expired on 2018-08-31 07:00:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- hangman anyone? -----

@duckling

, 'a'

[ofrhz]

Idk

My best guess is that he was either trying to claim his way out of a lynch and/or try to force a cc

I'm feeling a little bit lost rn

I don't think it's ausuka or ofrhz, and probably not mylo either

I don't particularly townread sando but i dont particularly scumread him either. I do think that its kinda risky for scum!sando to start a thing on town!ausuka and not to back down here tho

My townread on cardi is kinda fading

The doc claim was kind of a suboptimal claim imo

I think given the town mob trajectory of lol-lynching in that pool of people above Ausuka in the draft, AP could've just... claimed VT and sat back as he watched us shoot fish in that barrel of players (who are also more likely to be PRs since they're mostly higher in the draft than he was). Like I don't understand why it was optimal to claim Doc here and run the risk of a CC.

Current working theory is that maybe the scumteam knew there was a doc/rb in play and wanted to do a 1v1 trade? (like have AP suicide claim Doc to out the real doctor) That would pretty heavily implicate the people below Enigma (i.e. Bujaber, Sando, and me) (i.e. not Cardi)

[ofrhz]

@duckling

, e?

[ofrhz]

Enigma was pretty far down; I guess he might've yolo picked it. Admittedly it is less likely for scum to yolo pick a role than it is for town

[ofrhz]

But why doc?

Like why not something investigative or the like? They obviously didn't have RB to stop the subsequent doc, who they left alive anyway! I guess if they'd forced something like a cop to claim and left the doc up and unclaimed it'd get protected and not much they can do about it.

I'd agree with your suggestion that it makes a lot more sense if they knew there was a doc out there, and yeah that says me, you or Mylo.

Yeah that's the gist of what I was wondering as well.

I think given the town mob trajectory of lol-lynching in that pool of people above Ausuka in the draft, AP could've just... claimed VT and sat back as he watched us shoot fish in that barrel of players (who are also more likely to be PRs since they're mostly higher in the draft than he was). Like I don't understand why it was optimal to claim Doc here and run the risk of a CC.

Wait you think AP was gonna survive a VT claim? I seriously doubt that.

Mm maybe not, but I think it would've triggered a chain of claims from those people at the least. I guess I'm less interested in why he didn't claim VT and more interested in why he claimed doc. I can't really think of a great explanation, so maybe they were looking to out a possible doc / gambled on there not being a doc / what you said about avoid outing an investigative CC and having a possible doctor protect them makes sense (although this last possibility also increases the chances of scum knowing there was a doc/rb).

[ofrhz]

Everyone should vote soon. I have a feeling we'll be deadlocked, and compromises will have to be made

[ofrhz]

@Duckling, is your word "Quack"

how the actual fuck did i not think of this

[ofrhz]

wrt the whole hypo-inno thing itself - i think is anti-town but not very likely to come from scum in a vaccuum because i feel like last-scum wouldn't want to deliberately put themselves in a scummy position where they can be pushed for faking a claim; like if last-scum wants to make endgame making up a bad hypo-inno fake-claim thing that they recant after a day is not the way to really evade scrutiny; this is why i was townreading her earlier

the whole thing with hypo innos is that you can retract them easily. it's not akin to a fakeclaim imo

[ofrhz]

fucks sake some of cardi's posts today are really town

skitter you need to give a mylo read before eod

[ofrhz]

->1349 - i don't know if scum put themselves in the lynchpool. now that i think about it, her lynchpool (cardi, vulcan, music) consists of the lynchbait-y people and iirc she was on both of those lynches

Cardi, Cj, Music and Music wasnt lynched lmao

Spoiler:

omg

[ofrhz]

mylo can you talk about what you found towny in brass compared to this game: https://forum.mafia451.com/t/brass-shra ... ver/762/78

[ofrhz]

Ive seen a bunch of "fuck all yall Im done town better wake up" reactions in my day (vulcans is a good example) and the combination of stuff Im seein from Sando just doesnt sit right at all. Yall can see the effects of bein in this gotdam game for 2 months in erryone else: ausuka is gettin snappy and postin less, ofhrz is tryna open her third eye wit some wine, skitter been postin a bit slower and a lot more casual I think (ctrl f the word "idk" in her iso and check out where the little yellow lines are), mylo been openly focusin more on other stuff (lmao), I been all over the place

Sando just be like "Im apathetic." and it feels to me like he's mostly been postin the same way. Idk.

Skitter/Ofhrz this is the scummiest thing I've seen from Cardi all game.

Asks about as open ended question as it gets "yo what we gotta do to win?", targeted at Sando and Sando only.

I would need to read the part of JR that you were referring to where you said you didn't lash out at town for your ML or whatever, but I don't think I can get to it before deadline :/

ausuka is gettin snappy and postin less

- Snappy and not posting = townie

ofhrz is tryna open her third eye wit some wine

- mentioning drinking once = townie

skitter been postin a bit slower and a lot more casual I think

- posting less and not really taking it seriously = townie

mylo been openly focusin more on other stuff

- not paying attention = townie

I been all over the place

- doing whatever the fuck you want = townie

Sando just be like "Im apathetic." and it feels to me like he's mostly been postin the same way.

- Being apathetic = scummy

Like what the actual fuck? How is that not just desperately looking to read scum onto Sando? Not to mention, I haven't been fucking apathetic today. There was clearly literally nothing I could have said to get townread there. That's scummy AF.

I think this was saying that town is more likely to suffer from game fatigue at this stage? I kind of agree with this

[ofrhz]

mylo can you talk about what you found towny in brass compared to this game: https://forum.mafia451.com/t/brass-shra ... ver/762/78

eh brass backing away from his pressure vote in his scumgame wasn't something he did this game: https://forum.mafia451.com/t/brass-shra ... not_jester

i remember he got into a mini spat with okapoka about his pressure vote and remained steadfast in this game

[ofrhz]

i'm too tired rn
i should be here tomorrow morning and around deadline

[ofrhz]

#helping

Quack

[ofrhz]

If Sando isn’t scum I’ll probably cry

[ofrhz]

Quack quack

[ofrhz]

Quack with us skitter

[ofrhz]

Q

[ofrhz]

U

[ofrhz]

A

[ofrhz]

C

[ofrhz]

K

[ofrhz]

!

[ofrhz]

congrats scum!

thanks duckling for modding