OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[BuJaber]

VOTE: brass

Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.

1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.

I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.

[BuJaber]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

[BuJaber]

My first instinct was to pick 11.. wouldn't have been amazing but 5th is way better than 11th

[BuJaber]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

why would he be a good lynch exactly

Because the below assumption assumes that Oka is town.
If Oka is scum then he could have said that stuff because he knows they didn't coordinate.

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

[BuJaber]

What made you first suspect oka, and then change your mind?

Your first vote clearly wasn't random if you needed a reason to change it.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: Skitter30

Highest number picked is a scum pick

You think scum would willingly guarantee themselves a goon role?

I imagine skitter knew fully well he wasn't getting a power role there.

Some people like me prefer vanilla townie. But I haven't heard of anyone yet that prefers vanilla scum to a PR scum.

[BuJaber]

It is better to let someone tell me in their own words that it was a joke than it is to assume it is and let them slip through unsuspected.

[BuJaber]

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

let's not

Is this how you normally are?

Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.

VOTE: ofrhz

[BuJaber]

How's that for reading into posts too much.

Extracting scumminess from 2 words. TWO WORDS.

[BuJaber]

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

let's not

Is this how you normally are?

Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.

Uh if I'm understanding this correctly, you scumread ofrhz because he dismissed you and belittled you?

Yes

My assumption is backed by reasoning.
If he/she is town who thinks my reasoning is flawed he/she could have argued his point of view.

He/she did not and simply disagreed.


Pedit - what?

No two people with the same number can be scum together =/= no two people with the same number can be town together.

We could be both town or you could be scum. You aren't automatically scum just because I'm not scum. Because whether you are scum or town you did not coordinate with me about the number.

If you like probabilities so much you should be agreeing with me more than anyone else. Because you know for a fact that we did not coordinate so if you are town you'd know that at least for the number 6 my assumption is correct.

The same applies to ausuka and brass. If either of them are town they know that at least for their number my assumption is correct.

[BuJaber]

I wish you weren't the same person who voted for enigma in RVS.

I'm leaning town for you but my paranoia says you're distancing.

[BuJaber]

To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.

I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.

why would he be a good lynch exactly

Because the below assumption assumes that Oka is town.
If Oka is scum then he could have said that stuff because he knows they didn't coordinate.

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

Assuming scum didn't pick the same numbers is still WIFOM-y though. Like scum can just pick two of the same numbers and use that to "prove" they're not scum together

True. But I also think scum would not want to gamble too much and lose their chance at getting a role. I feel that the positive utility of a power role should outvalue the need to avoid suspicion. You already have players like you who do not want to make this assumption, and even I who's making it cannot fully eliminate the recurring numbers from my scum pool throughout the game and will have to be flexible about this point.

I know I made the game delve deep into WIFOM, and some people don't like that, but I do enjoy it and the discussions itself help me. (I also do use WIFOM in scumhunting but just trust that when I do as town I am doing it in a way that I feel is helpful at the time and fully knowing the dangers of doing so. It usually works as a starting point for how to approach the game and then I delve deeper and test my assumptions with more objective analysis).

What made you first suspect oka, and then change your mind?

Your first vote clearly wasn't random if you needed a reason to change it.

When ruru in'd into this game, she made a long post in the queue thread explaining in detail that she would unequivocally pick 1 in the draft as either alignment. This part of the post has since been edited out

I think it's highly likely that scum knew ruru would pick 1 based on the picks (no one else picked 1 and no one picked 2, which I think is unusual) and because they could talk N0.

When oka voted ruru with his reasoning, I thought it was bad, because ruru had already stated plainly that she would pick 1 before she even got her rolecard.

But then I realized oka probably didn't see ruru's original post, and didn't have the knowledge that I think scum had.

Okay this gives a lot more context. I suppose though if ruru did roll scum it'd be a risk free way to shoot for the first pick chance. Especially that anyone that did read that would hesitate to pick no 1.


I think Sando might be scum here. That comment saying brass is right about him comes off as a disarming tactic.

VOTE: Sando

@Sando - what is CJ?

Pedit - erm.. I don't know what to do with that.. anyone have insight into the mind of ruru?

[BuJaber]

You know...
If she were scum pgo..

She'd probably play it the same way. The scum motivation is to do whatever you want when posting as you can see.

That said ruru, please if town use your limited time alive to share actual insight because I for one am pro-policy lynch for roles like pgo and miller etc.

[BuJaber]

Not today but definitely before mylo/lylo

[BuJaber]

I wasn't even thinking about the pairing..

Scum vig makes sense for ruru given the pgo claim.

As town she should have either picked a bad power and attracted the scum kill or blocked a strong scum power before scum could take it.
Town pgo shouldn't claim.


Why is starting wagons a bad thing, stargazer ? Or whoever asked

Ftr you can say whatever you want about my play or my posts. Even if something frustrates me I won't get offended. We all scumhunt differently. I've had people say I'm an asshole as town so it'd be unfair if I didn't also accept whatever gets thrown at me.

But to answer the question I find it scummy to disagree with someone who has shared their opinion and given reasons for their opinion without also stating why you disagree.
- it might be laziness
- it might be a way to reduce the person's influence
- it might be a way to make them change the subject (especially if they are on the right track)
- it might be a way to discourage them from sharing their thoughts (this one is rare I don't think people do this often but there is definitely an advantage for scum if town talk less and when a towny's arguments are met with just 'no' / 'wrong' etc, it can be disheartening) now I'm not discouraged by things like that but unless they're an alt they haven't played with me before and thus wouldn't know this about me.

[BuJaber]

Town pgo shouldn't claim.

Town!ruru if pgo shouldn't claim because she had first pick.

Town pgo in regular games probably should claim early.

[BuJaber]

This isn't spontaneous ruru? Wow.

Sorry I'm a dumb dumb .. I thought CJ was some sort of new mafiascum abbreviation not a player abbreviation. That's why I asked. But thanks for sharing your read.

I agree that skitter is likely town.

Random prediction time : 1 one of the people who looked up previous games is scum.

Arguing about ruru's meta won't help us imo. I say we just agree to policy lynch her at some point. But for what it's worth ruru I'm glad you started posting actual content.

Vulcan AP and Ausuka should post more

Any comments on my sando case? I think if she's scum brass is probably town. That post of hers looked like buddying.

[BuJaber]

Yeah
I don't look at old games. It might be a bad thing. It might be limiting myself. But I just don't do it. I sometimes look up general notes on setups on wiki but that's it. I come into setups fresh or if I've played them before I bring my own experience. Just the way I am. I don't think the value gained from it is worth the research time personally.

But technically what I said doesn't actually confirm that. All I said is 1 of them is scum. I could also have been one of them.

[BuJaber]

I acrually have a gut scumread on brass. He seems quite confident, and from my personal interactions with him he seems more confident as scum than as town.
But the association with sando doesn't work two ways. If brass is town it says nothing about sando.

I need to look for other stuff. Not enough scumreads too many nulls.

[BuJaber]

gut says okapoka may be scum?

Interesting. Anything in particular making your spidey sense tingle?

[BuJaber]

I got a townvibe from oka tbh. So I found ausuka's gut read interesting.

Could be that oka is very good at threading the NAI line

[BuJaber]

ruru playing through 7 layers of wifom so i doubt i can ever read her this game

You don't have to. She made it easy with pgo claim. Policy lynch tomorrow.

[BuJaber]

Yeah, why a PL day 2?

My math was off. I thought day 2 was mylo -1 but it's day 3.

[BuJaber]

@skitter - not exactly. I was saying that the fact that I said I predict that 1 scum is among the researchers doesn't necessary mean I didn't research. It just so happens to be true but since it was just a prediction on something nai (research) the next time I predict something similar I might be among the pool. In this case the fact that multiple people have researched past games points to one f them being scum simply because I find it highly unlikely that all those that researched are town. Especially since scum benefit more from the research in this setup imo.

No brass scumread is based on the meta thing I mentioned. I wasn't thinking about him or anyone else in particular when I made the prediction.

I dunno I kinda felt that oka's posts seemed like active participation for the purposes of scumhunting. But given the wagon on him it'd be worth reading his ISO to see all his posts together and assess his total contribution to the game so far.

[BuJaber]

That's actually why I think it benefits scum more.

See a townie can research and make assumptions based on past games but they would still be rooted in WIFOM. Will the current scum team follow the trends or won't they?

Scum researching tells them exactly how past scum did it and how successful they were and then they make the decision to go along with past success or go a different route but then in the game ghread they will likely try to subtly make us assume the opposite of what they actually did. Their arguments look better if they research first.

A townie doesn't care if scum is playing optimally or not. They just want to identify them. Scum would want to increase their chances.

[BuJaber]

I got a townvibe from oka tbh. So I found ausuka's gut read interesting.

Could be that oka is very good at threading the NAI line

I don't understand what you mean by treading the NAI line

Are you saying that what oka has been saying is mostly NAI?

But then you expressed you have a townvibe on him, which is odd.

Yes most of his posts were about roles, wifom of the draft, what scum in ruru's position might do.

Those are NAI. However you can SR or TR these posts based on tone and what you perceive to be his intention. Which I feel is coming from town.
So by "threading the NAI line" I mean that if he is scum he is just very good at posting a minimum amount of actual relevant reads and of saying NAI things while sounding towny.


I think Enigma could be scum with ruru. I don't really see any other scum motivation for the posts he's making. I think ruru's latest posts are townish but I still think it's too risky to keep em alive for very long.

I don't understand how lynching PGO at mylo - 1 will turn it into lylo. Do you think pgo and vengeful power slots are both taken by scum? And vengeful ruru claimed pgo knowing her partner is pgo/vig?
Would be a powerful high risk high reward gambit but seems far-fetched to me.

I triple checked my math this time. Assuming mislynch and NK every day/night, Day 4 is mylo so day 3 is mylo - 1.
Day 1 - 3 v 11
Day 2 - 3 v 9
Day 3 - 3 v 7
Day 4 - 3 v 5
Day 5 - 3 v 3 game over.

[BuJaber]

I read oka's ISO and beyond the townie tone, I also don't think scum would interpret enigma's vote on me with such accuracy. It's not something you come up with if you read enigma's post quickly and not pay close attention. And I think scum.pay closer attention to someone they are building a case on than someone they are defending.
So if you scumread oka do you have specific reasons for it?

[BuJaber]

and what, this whole thing is awkward distancing for the towncred once ruru flips scum?

Yup

Or he's bad at scum.

Like.. the whole arguing for both sides of the PL seems like a cop-out. You're either for or against. You can change your mind about it, but to be both for AND against at the same time?.. scummy.
Like if enigma is scum and ruru is town why even mention that ruru might be vengeful? Get credit for being cautious? That doesn't work. He just looks bad here so I'm thinking maybe he's trying to get credit for the PL but not actually wanting the PL to happen and that's where the ruru association came from.

If you want the opinion of someone who hasn't played with any of the so called 'clique' .. except maybe skitter I think we've played once before not sure... I understand and agree with the skitter townread. I can see why someone would lean town for ruru but the rest I don't see anything obvtown about them so it makes me uncomfortable when there is a group that trusts each other this quickly. Scum absolutely will try to infiltrate the town bloc and any townie should have healthy skepticism wrt those that agree with them / TR them.

[BuJaber]

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i am confused?

if you're PGO i'm not really sure why you would announce this unless you were trying to like purposefully not get visited. although if you're town i guess that's probably be the point

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

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i am confused?

if you're PGO i'm not really sure why you would announce this unless you were trying to like purposefully not get visited. although if you're town i guess that's probably be the point

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

Uh I sorta understand.

Town!ruru being on top spot means mafia will prioritize killing her because they think she has this powerful role. Now that she claimed, I'm sure they'll have second thoughts on if visiting her is actually a good idea.

Now we just have to know if this is scum!ruru or town!ruru.

TBH, scum would likely want to pick one from that pair (PGO or one-shot vig) since it's an extra night kill for them essentially. So this means they would have a good chance to know if she is bluffing or not. Plus several town PR to protect/negate/mitigate/watch/etc. Keep in mind town PRs are less likely to know if she is lying or not.
So ruru's whole play has been decidedly anti-town by either wasting a good town PR opportunity, or calling for herself as a town PR to likely be killed.

Anti-town vs scum vs noob hrrrmmmm...

@Skitter - the above posts give me the impression he's debating whether or not we should pl.
And I'm getting suspicious of it because generally I see that people are either for or against pl's as a concept. If you start talking meta and analyzing posts and all that then it ceases to be a PL... then it's just a regular TR or SR.

@ausuka - weird post to choose to point out and TR for vulcan. You don't think he'd make such a post as scum?

@ruru - individually I SR sando for

I'm off to bed, but yeah your reads on what I would/wouldn't do as scum are spot on, so I'll read through the rest of your stuff there in the morning, seems worthwhile.

Feels like a way to make brass stop looking into him too closely.

But I also have a gut meta scumread on brass. But since this would be weak af way to distance I don't think they can both be scum. Also because my reasoning for sando sr doesn't work if brass is scum.


Likely scum or 2 among the lurkers but too early to tell them apart.

Assuming you are town ruru that would imo point to scum choosing 3 and/or 4 in the draft. If 1 isn't scum they surely will at least try to get one of the earlier picks and risk the duplication.

So all in all .. I think brass is a good place to start. VOTE: brass

Pedit - I don't agree with the oka sr. I can see why he might bother you but I think you're jumping to the wrong conclusion. His enigma comment while perhaps logically wrong is the towniest thing he's done. Unless he is partners with enigma there is no scum motivation to do it. He had to read enigma's post very carefully to come up with thaf explanation for it and in my experience scum don't do that for people they want to defend. Especislly when enigma wasn't even a wagon at the time so it isn't even wking.

[BuJaber]

Doesn't calling a pressure vote a 'pressure vote' defeat its purpose?

People won't join a wagon knowing you don't have a case, and the votee in question will know it's a test.

[BuJaber]

his statistics based scumhunting makes v little sense tho and resulted in an opportunistic vote on a wagon and even tho he's making an effort to look like he's scumhunting since then he hasn't taken his vote off the wagon

To be honest I find that usually scum will be among the people who switched votes.

You see a wagon forming you want to jump on it early then if it loses steam you want to jump off and avoid suspicion.

Or they don't join an early wagon on town because they know it's on town and the wagon may not stick.

So imo if we want to lynch someone based on the wagon on me we should look at the people who voted then unvoted, OR the people who townread me in the first few pages.

[BuJaber]

Voted & unvoted: ofrhz, ausuka, vulcan, skygazer

Townread me early: CJ, brass (if you count "got the right idea the wrong way" might be reading too much into it but that reads like a soft TR)

[BuJaber]

kidding kidding

BuJaber out of those (now 5) people in your list in 311 do you see any other scum motivations from any of them? Not really buying anybody listed as scum other than maybe possibly vulcan but that's not because he unvoted you

I made the list because I think if the only reason you scumread enigma is that he voted me then never unvoted that's a bad reason to SR him.
There are other stronger reasons to scumread him like his flip flopping on both sides of the PL argument.


But of that list ofrhz lately seems town I guess. Plays a very different playstyle than I do so it's a bit hard to judge.
Skygazer (you) is a solid null at the moment. I haven't been able to sort you so far.

Vulcan and ausuka aren't contributing much, they don't seem to want to make waves so to speak. They could be scum.

CJ seems like town, but someone like Oka I have a stronger townread on.

Brass I'm leaning scum for a different reason alltogether (meta). I just put him on the list to get confirmation on how to interpret his posts.


Ruru seems town and honestly it'll be more fun to see everyone who knows her be wrong about her than it would be to win. So like I wouldn't keep her alive intentionally if I thought she were scum but it would be glorious if she did end up winning as scum. Would be top 3 scum performances I've seen so far on MS for sure.

Skitter seems like solid town. He's working really hard for town cred if he's scum and I think the way he approaches the game is difficult to fake.


I don't think we should ignore the draft picks completely. I think there is a strong chance that there is scum among the small numbers (ausuka, brass, enigma, sando, CJ, ofrhz). This is even more likely imo if ruru is town (which is looking likely given the overwhelming meta townreads from people and his recent townie posts).

Finally invis and AP could flip either way. They are practically not even in this game.

So if we remove my TRs, that leaves us with the following complete scum pool:

{Vulcan, ausuka, brass, enigma, sando}

Could go either way: {AP, invisibility, skygazer}

Townleans: {ruru, oka, skitter, CJ, ofrhz}

Not a bad start for day 1 if you'll allow me a moment of ego-stroking.

[BuJaber]

Why is sando on your scum pool tho

If brass is town he's scum. I felt that he agreed with his meta analysis so that he wouldn't analyze him further.
If brass is scum I think Sando is town though. Kind of too obvious buddying there.
And sando picked a low number (4).
I think scum don't want to lose their shot at getting a PR and they would have tried (at least one of them would have) to pick one of the low numbers.

@ausuka - just feels like you aren't being controversial and both your votes were on rising wagons.

[BuJaber]

Player A: "I think x would do this and this as scum"

Player X: 'Yeah you're absolutely right I would that as scum'

Player A (to self): "hmm, x agreed with me. Why would x do that as scum? Also I wanted a discussion about/with x, but x ended the conversation"

You don't see how that would be beneficial to scum?

Let's go about it a different way.
Town talks about one of the scum's meta and is pretty accurate. How do you imagine scum responds to that? I see 3 options.
A) disagree and argue that it is not correct
B) ignore
C) agree

If there's another option please enlighten me. But basically A and B suck for scum. They will likely bring a lot of suspicion on them. The person with the meta read would definitely pursue it at a minimum even if others ignore it. And judging by past games if a past game is linked to prove that the scum player does play the way the town player suggested then that is probably going to end up lynching the scum.

[BuJaber]

If you don't like WIFOM stop playing open games.

[BuJaber]

@BuJaber but you do agree that creating wifom is more beneficial for scum than town right?

Yes and if you've noticed I've reduced my WIFOM significantly. I got the discussion I wanted about dtaft picks and I stopped talking about it. I got the discussion I wanted about PLing ruru and I stopped talking about it.

But basically A and B suck for scum. They will likely bring a lot of suspicion on them. The person with the meta read would definitely pursue it at a minimum even if others ignore it.

Ignoring it is by far and away the safest play. You're literally attacking me for agreeing, how is that safe?

Then we fundamentally disagree. Ignoring it is terrible.


Also why do people always do that with me. Just because you are claiming I have misread you doesn't mean you have to disagree with every point I make.

I'm right about this. And you agreeing with me about it doesn't automatically make you scum. Incidentally option C is also a viable option for town because townies are honest and forthcoming. The difference between town and scum is that town don't have to worry about getting suspected too much, so options A and B are less problematic. (Though if a townie picks option A that means that either the guy talking about them is scum for faking the meta read or the guy is clueless about the townie's meta and needs to be corrected).

Yes I am but if you had picked option A or B you'd have even more people attacking you I suspect.

@ruru - in the link you posted they talked about "hypo-cop'ing" but not "hypo-inno". Could you explain what it means?

[BuJaber]

Sky - maybe maybe not
Ruru - possible but quite impressive if scum. She's actually participating effectively. Actually the most impressive is how nobody wanted to PL her. These people are very good friends to the point that it's affecting their game. I'm basing this on the fact they were against the PL before ruru started posting actual content. You can't townread anyone based on random stuff, song lyrics, and a pgo claim. I don't care who you are you just can't.

Ofrhz - ehh, hard to read. Seems townie. Comfortable enough to be herself.

Skitter - if she can play scum like this kudos to her.

Overall not the best scum pool especially if you mean all 3 are in here.

[BuJaber]

Sky - maybe maybe not
Ruru - possible but quite impressive if scum. She's actually participating effectively. Actually the most impressive is how nobody wanted to PL her. These people are very good friends to the point that it's affecting their game. I'm basing this on the fact they were against the PL before ruru started posting actual content. You can't townread anyone based on random stuff, song lyrics, and a pgo claim. I don't care who you are you just can't.

Ofrhz - ehh, hard to read. Seems townie. Comfortable enough to be herself.

Skitter - if she can play scum like this kudos to her.

Overall not the best scum pool especially if you mean all 3 are in here.

Sorry duckie duck. You can hijack my post for your VC.

[BuJaber]

So 1 scum in {...}

It's a very different statement to scum are in {...}

[BuJaber]

Like if it is a scum-manufactured wagon then they definitely got a few townies to vote there too. They aren't going to all vote there hoping it gets hammered.

Pedit - to be fair it's a pretty useless thing to double down on.
You double down on something as town because you think you're right and you think it's worth doubling down on.
He's doubling down on a vote because he doesn't want to vote Oka and his vote "is not doing anything bad".
Also RVS wagons absolutely matter. Don't know why he thinks they don't.

Pedit 2- oh .. lol should have inferred that. Thanks for explaining. I get the advise as it related to cop claim(s). But not sure if it actually applies to any other claim. Like a cc of another claim is likely something we would need to act upon. We can discuss if it comes up as then we would have actual context.

[BuJaber]

When y'all are saying SvS you mean scum is on the enigma wagon and enigma is scum?

Or is there a specific 1v1 I missed?

[BuJaber]

Skitter since I think you're town and I value your opinion, when you get to it comment on my scumpool.

I understand you don't like some of my reasoning wrt to draft picks and Sando, but I've done more sorting since then and when you take the entire process into account Sando becomes part of the pool even if by PoE only because I haven't seen enough for a TR.

And in fact the latest stuff from him is good because it's a lot more black and white. Like he is either overreacting to my lonely vote because he's town and rightfully getting offended or because he's defensive scum lashing out. Pretty much has to be one or the other unlike posting vague general stuff that is hard to intepret. Ehem ehem like a few people in this game (and on this site).

I'm hoping with more posts from her I can figure out which it is.

[BuJaber]

And for what it's worth the only reason I picked a low number was to try and block scum from getting a PR.

Like if the pool of PRs wasn't shared between both town and scum I would have tried to guarantee VT role for myself.

[BuJaber]

Maybe that's giving me a biased perspective that only scum would prioritize low numbers.

[BuJaber]

Okay fine since I care about my skill in the game more than any win.

Let's say 3 games is a good enough sample to make me question my reality. So the next 3 games that someone analyzes your meta, ignore them.

Then link me the games by PM if you don't get suspected for it.

[BuJaber]

And for the record my niche in recent town games is to scumread things in the early game that nobody else notices. So option A and B would be suspected by the masses.

C you're just unlucky enough to play a game with me.

And if you're town that's just doubly unlucky for both of us because yes I scumread that.

[BuJaber]

I'll get back to you in a sec.

@ruru - do you think brass is more confident in his reads/tone as scum or as town, from your own experience/research?

[BuJaber]

Yes but his setup spec was about you specifically and what you would do as scum.

He didn't apply it to all 3 people who picked 4.

In fact he was encouraging people to analyze the draft picks based on who the players are and how they'd play as part of a scumteam.

[BuJaber]

Believe me I'd love to find out that I'm wrong about what is scummy or not.

Better to find out you're wrong when you're a relative newbie than when you've become a 15 year veteran of the game.

(When I say what is scummy or not I mean in like 80-90% of times. The other 10-20% is the chance that any action/post no matter how townie it looks from the outside could be scummy because scum are always changing their tactics and trying to appear townie - I am not looking to remove all subjective reasons from the game. That'd be boring and ineffective)

[BuJaber]

@ausuka - just feels like you aren't being controversial and both your votes were on rising wagons.

really? my votes were on you and enigma; both of you had exactly one vote at the time, and I was the first serious vote on enigma. i also scumread okapoka before the oka wagon was a thing. i don't understand how you can have this view of my play.

That appears to be accurate. When I sorted you I only looked at your ISO and didn't see how many votes were on either.

The naked votes threw me off too I admit.

I'll drop you to a null. Knowing the context of your votes makes the votes NAI instead of scummy while we don't know enigma's alignment.

If enigma flips town your vote looks worse.

But I'd like to know why you unvoted me so quickly if you thought I was scum.

[BuJaber]

Believe me I'd love to find out that I'm wrong about what is scummy or not.

Others are telling you exactly what I'm telling you, you don't want to listen to people and would rather double down on a bad argument.

i don't really think this is a good reason to scumread him and i feel like the reasoning is kinda weak and ignores context

1 person. Who shared an opinion. Who could be wrong.

[BuJaber]

Alright

Since you're here..
Do you still like the enigma wagon?
Who else do you find scummy?
What do you think of oka?
Have you played with brass and/or Sando before?

Pedit - I agree with this. But it's weird how he insists on linking his vote with game theory like it makes it more legit.

[BuJaber]

@ausuka - oh thought it was about enigma.. ignore the pedit.

Is the inverse association between enigma and ofr/skitter just because they're voting for him or is there something else?

Since you have some idea how they play, di you agree with brass's assessment on what Sando would or wouldn't do as scum?
Do you have any meta tells on them?

[BuJaber]

Let's make sure we're all talking about the same thing.

Skitter said she thought my reasoning is weak and she doesn't think Sando is scummy.

But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.

[BuJaber]

I think he will he seems like a man of action.

So I'm dropping the theory talk until such time.

[BuJaber]

Besides if brass flips scum I'll get my clear on sando which is basically what matters here if he's town. Regardless of whether or not you agree with how I arrive at my reads, accurate reads are what matters.

[BuJaber]

Let's make sure we're all talking about the same thing.

Skitter said she thought my reasoning is weak and she doesn't think Sando is scummy.

But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.

Okay I think some of your back and forth makes more sense here. Aside from the “Sando agreeing with brass” thing, do you have a read on Sando?

For a guy who stated that he thinks ignoring is a good strategy he isn't ignoring much. That's either because he's telling the truth and iz town or because he's scum WIFOMing.

If he were the first attacker I'd say his stubbornness would be ai, but considering his case on me is an omgus counter reaction I'm failing to see the scum motivation to do all this.

I'm new to most of the playerbase, had an early wagon on me, haven't earned my influence yet in this game. Why attack me now if scum? Does he think I'm lynchbait? Does he have the foresight that it's better to lynch me early? That would require him to research my towngames and see how I tend to obvtown. If he's generally a researcher it wouldn't be ai, but if he looked up everyone he didn't know just for this game that would be scummy.

The discussion is a distracting tactic that pulls away from the main wagon. Such tunneling is usuallg town indicative so the only bdnefit I can see for scum is if enigma is scum.

So if I ignore the brass association and if enigma is town sando would be a TR.
Otherwise scum.

[BuJaber]

i don't think that sando was going to get lynched because brass correctly said that sando doesn't agree to have all three scum pick the same number; if anything he was pointing out a reason to not-scumread his draftpick.

The point wasn't clear in the quote. I was saying that in scenario A if scum disagree with someone's analysis of their scum meta snd then that someone linked a past game as evidence the scum would be caught and lynched.

[BuJaber]

But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.

That's just the part you've decided to engage with. You've also:
- Said that scum definitively is playing optimally whilst accusing me of doing research, research which shows 4 is the most commonly townpicked number
- Specifically said that based on a single persons post about me, no matter what my reaction, I'd be scummy. This is bad enough when it's based on a post that I make, but when it's someone else making a post it crosses into absurdity.

First point can you show me where.
Second point yes that's my case on you but that wasn't what ofrhz waa agreeing/disagreeing with.
I need to know when people are disagreeing with me about a general opinion on mafia strategy and when they are agreeing/disagreeing on a specific read

[BuJaber]

If he were the first attacker I'd say his stubbornness would be ai, but considering his case on me is an omgus counter reaction I'm failing to see the scum motivation to do all this.

You're trying to tell the person that interacted with me about case I was about to bring on you and waited over a VLA to make, that it's simply OMGUS?

Shade shant work for you here scumbo!

Y
Are you reading? That point is in your favor

[BuJaber]

Still disagreeing about things that are just fact because you think everything is about you specifically.
And if you want it about this in particular:
Why as scum would you disagree with his meta analysis? There's no value to it. ESPECIALLY if it is based on a game that is 10 years ago as you say.

[BuJaber]

And you really are very comfortable with this group if you think you can avoid a lynch had you disagreed with brass amd he provided evidence to show that you are wrong.

Why would we ignore something huge like that? If it got down to brass bringing in past games he would successfully make it a 1v1 and if you ended up looking like a liar you would be lynched first.

[BuJaber]

You only think it's what I'm doing because you have created a reality for yourself where I am scum.

As soon as you see I am town poof goes all ill intentions you are perceiving.

[BuJaber]

He could not possible have provided evidence to show that I'm wrong, even if I had decided to "lie" (is it really lying? Whatever) and disagreed with him. It does not exist...this is my only account, you can have a look for yourself. Won't take you long, any completed game from this year in my history is me as town (other than a marathon game).

I could have done a, b or c, and no-one would have or should have batted an eyelid, and certainly no-one could have provided evidence to gainsay it. This is an absolutely terrible, atrocious line of accusation from you.

In your own words, whichever option I went with you'd have expected me to be scumread. Given that's based on me reacting to someone elses words, how can you not see that this is an absolutely terrible way to scumhunt?!?!?!

So you're an exception to the rule. That's a coincidence. Scum who lie and get caught would get lynched is the general rule. Considering this is our first game together, I couldn't possibly have known this much about you.

A is because of circumstance. B we disagree with. C yes I have to convince others to see my point not something others would necessarily notice. Town can do any of the 3 options as long as they don't lie. Scum can only do C without risk. Considering it's day 1 margin of error is big and I'd rather assume you're scum taking the only option available than town taking 1 out of 3 options.

Let's just hope we don't roll scum together in a future game.

How would you feel about oka/CJ if enigma flips scum, and if enigma flips town?


@everyone - anyone townreading brass and why?

[BuJaber]

CJ did townlean on me pretty early on iirc which is suspicious, but hasn't pinged me otherwise and Oka I feel is clearly town.
We do finally agree on something though: no clear association with enigma for either of them.

[BuJaber]

@enigma - for what it's worth I thought of the usual first picks .. 7 and 1. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that 7 is the most picked number when someone picks a 'random' number. Human condition and all that. (I really like the number 7 myself but it turns out I'm just not special). So I picked 6 because I thought that

after

7 people would be scrambling to get the smallest numbers and that numbers bigger than 7 might be too high so I went with 6.

Confusing yourself and using theories you don't understand very well because you're trying too hard is usually a towntell. It also looks really messy if scum and scum tend to be more careful.
So this is either intentionally acting like a crazy guy or it's townie behaviour.

BUT why if he knows he read 5% of the article, hasn't done much math in 10 years, isn't confident that he understands the article very much, would he be so obnoxious about it early game? He was doing the whole "educate yourself on game theory fools" routine.

@Cardi - it sounds like I think ruru is town because I do. I suspected her heavily at first, then she started posting real content and it came off as town.

Let's talk about vulcan. First of all I kinda like Bujabish so that was a happy typo .. you may call me that but only for this game. I still prefer my actual username (or its shorthand Bu / Buj).
Secondly for a guy who claims he is not confident in his reads and continuously second guessing himself he is very theatrical about his reveals like he's going to drop some heroic level one-of-a-kind analysis. And then it's just a bunch of nulls and he needs to take a break after it.
Lurking and not contributing is definitely bad but I'd rather have you post helpful stuff instead of forcing yourself to post just for the sake of posting.
Coming off as someone faking a townie mindset.

AP keeps talking about self meta and doesn't seem committed to his votes. A scumlean there.

Invis seems to have a shy meta either alignment so I don't know how much we can expect from him either way :/

Oka is a townread but I can't help but feel like he's been trying to vote for enigma for a long time but just pretending to have reservations.
CJ's sheeping actually comes off townie to me. I can't explain it exactly but it's sort of like he doesn't give a flying egg sandwich about he comes across.

All in all I think for day 1 I am only going to vote for either:
- Brass (cardi) - meta, associative post-flip read on sando, and honestly the roleplay is annoying from cardi. You can have fun playing while making cohesive posts. Treat it like a game but take your wincon seriously is my philosophy. Roleplaying is kind of like playing by yourself instead of cooperating.

- Vulcna - sounds like scum faking a townie mindset. His lack of confidence seems exaggerated.

- enigma - not convinced he is being truthful, some of his posts seem fake, his attitude is inconsistent with what he is saying, good wagon analysis.

[BuJaber]

Cardi if you're playing on a computer can you combine your posts a little bit please?

If on phone I understand that it takes more effort so do whatever.

[BuJaber]

I am biased though I play on phone 95% of the time and I try to keep my quoting at a minimum so that I don't spam if I split them up and I don't fuck up the formatting if I post walls.

[BuJaber]

@cardi b do you have any prior experience playing mafia on this website?

Lol this is the slowest interview ever

[BuJaber]

Dude her signature says she's actually Cardi B.
I don't know Cardi B but I give it like a 0.02% chance that she would actually play on MS.
So basically you are not going to get a real answer from this account.
Not about her identity anyway.

That's my 2 cents.

[BuJaber]

Damn... I thought the invisible vote on ceejay was invisibility's

Looks like just a typo

[BuJaber]

this is going to be slightly frustrating trying to read her and invis

hopefully we have some roles that can clear that up

I mean you can still look at her reads and votes and stuff like that and sort her that way. She's not completely obfuscating her play.

And I suspect most players are able to post in a different language but they don't because they don't want to make fellow townies work harder.

I don't think roleplaying itself is scummy but when it makes your posts harder to understand it isn't really pro-town.

Same reason why people who are worse at explaining themselves get lynched more often on average. It's the first thing I try to improve every game.

[BuJaber]

I played one where a replacement got slack (and SRs) for roleplaying when the game was maybe 80 pages in. He got pissed off, refused to succumb, replaced out, eventually got lynched and flipped town.

It's a lose-lose either way I reckon.

[BuJaber]

I feel like it's too early to judge the gamestate.

I was going to comment on the wagon vs counterwagon situation but then I checked the deadline, and well a week is a lifetime.

[BuJaber]

What I'm trying to say is that I suspect some townies have ran out of things to say, scum cannot join the enigma wagon right now regardless of enigma's alignment because they'd have to find a reason to join now that would explain why they didn't earlier. And considering not much has happened that's not an 3asy thing to do.

So basically as people start scrambling about to get a wagon hammered before deadline we can analyze the gamestate more accurately than now.

[BuJaber]

Has anyone actually given a reason why brass is town? Or is it just y'all feel enigma/whoever is scummier?

I think Invis is a lazy wagon for day 1. I'm starting to think he's harder to sort than Not_Mafia and that is no easy task by itself. Most of the time it's pure guess work and I'm saying this while considering myself moderately experienced in playing with NM.

[BuJaber]

Skitter just to avoid a misunderstanding: is vizzy invis or vulcan?

[BuJaber]

how are wagons getting weaker and weaker and less people are voting as this day goes by

Exactly. I don't think scum are leading town in any way.

It seems we've hit a beautiful balance of personalities and pov's that town just aren't collectively finding any one thing scummy and scum don't want to draw too much attention to themselves.

That said...I'm still comfortable with my d1 lynchpool of cardi, vulcan, enigma.

Might be willing to add AP to the list. He hasn't been impressive yet.

I think there absolutely has to be scum among the rest but the rest are harder to identify as scum because most are appearing quite townie so far or true neutral.

[BuJaber]

@skitter - yeah it is mostly gut. But his ISO seems lacking. Brass might doubt himself a lot as town but he scumhunts and jumps on/creates wagons. I just see him overly discussing the draft, making too many 'jokes', randomly voting and unvoting people for 'pressure'.
As for Cardi maybe her posts will get better but a lot of her posts were basically just gut or disagreeing with someone's opinioms but there's very little reasoning in her disagreement.

@enigma - brass lynch is more informative than you think. There is definitely at least 1 scum that made up a fake reason not to vote for brass. If he flips town you look for ones that sound like they knew he was town and if he flips scum you look for ones that sound like they knew he was scum.
Also I'm town so if brass is town also they don't want to seem too eager to join the wagon, they'll take it slow because they want to try and spin it later to get me lynched too. If brass is scum they don't want to bus too early and attract attention or encourage town to join and risk him getting hammered.
And then there's the sando association. I know everyone who talked about it has disagreed so far but I believe it applies. Brass flip gives me info on Sando, and that is valuable because we are disagreeing on stuff I didn't even know people can disagree on.
Funny you say that about brass wagon while jumping on Invis. You really think invis has enough content that he's a more informative lynch than brass???!

[BuJaber]

@Skitter I don't know I'll have to look. I think it's better to look after the flip because you'd be looking for one particular side instead of two anf it's easier to interpret that way. But I see your point and I'll try to look over some posts to see if any stand out.

I agree about Cardi's latest posts being much clearer and to the point. Looking forward for more.

---------


I don't like how the Enigma wagon dissipated. To be honest I didn't really think he did anything that warrants a change of mind. Meaning that the people who scumread him early on, should still be scumreading him. I can't imagine that excuse was satisfying for any townie. I hadn't been convinced of his scumminess in the early game and eveb I find his paper talk suspicious. (I also dislike his SR on me but that's just bias I'm guessing). Kinda suspicous it went from biggest wagon to a lone vote also.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: invis

L-1 yeaaaah

Please be scum

[BuJaber]

-Can someone help me understand what ruru's strategy was? I don't get the town fakeclaim. A townie who knows she's lying will counterclaim and ruru likely gets lynched. And scum who know she's lying will NK her. And I think that's what happened. It's the most likely explanation in my mind.
So I feel like I'm missing something obvious or it's a pointless gambit??

-CJ: why did you put invis at L-1?
- AP: why did you hammer?
Discussion was still ongoing, I don't know why you two decided to end the day 3 days before deadline.

[BuJaber]

That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Town PGO would cc. Why wouldn't they?
Town vig shooting ruru is a conceivable scneario, but it further makes me question ruru's decision. How would that have helped at all? Town vig wasting his shot on town roleblocker because the town vig knew he was lying.
Ruru is dead now I really don't care about her intentions anymore but considering she is clearly not a new player I want to learn why a townie would do that and why it would be a good/viable strategy. I'll just ask her post-game.

Vulcan ... thanks to the quickhammer you survived day 1 without having to complete your readlist. Do it now.

[BuJaber]

Again Sando proves that we come from different planets.

Fuck me for taking the opportunity every game to improve myself and learn from others.

Fuck me for respecting a decision that ruru made consciously and wanting to learn from it.

Fuck me for expressing surprise at someone doing something that never would have occurred to me.

Fuck me for making sure I post when I have something relevant to say even if I want to go off-topic instead of dedicating an entire post to the off-topic thing.

You may have these people fooled but your stubborness doesn't come from being town. You are either just a horrible individual or you're scum. One or the other. This isn't natural townie-offensiveness. You're worn your biased glasses and everything I do looks scummy to me.

Have fun you just ruined my best friend on MS's game for me.

-please replace me TW. I don't have time to play games I don't enjoy.

I hope you're scum I really do. It's better for you as a human and as a player.

[BuJaber]

mylo dont leave us! (((((

Seconded.