OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)
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let's notIn post 12, BuJaber wrote: I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.- ofrhz
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why would he be a good lynch exactlyIn post 14, BuJaber wrote:To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.
I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.- ofrhz
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Assuming scum didn't pick the same numbers is still WIFOM-y though. Like scum can just pick two of the same numbers and use that to "prove" they're not scum togetherIn post 19, BuJaber wrote:
Because the below assumption assumes that Oka is town.In post 18, ofrhz wrote:
why would he be a good lynch exactlyIn post 14, BuJaber wrote:To be honest you'd be a good lynch right now .. i'd rather not be paranoid about you WIFOMing us. If town please obvtowning it up as soon as possible.
I guess I see your point. We'll have to watch ruru.
If Oka is scum then he could have said that stuff because he knows they didn't coordinate.
In post 12, BuJaber wrote:I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.- ofrhz
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When ruru in'd into this game, she made a long post in the queue thread explaining in detail that she would unequivocally pick 1 in the draft as either alignment. This part of the post has since been edited outIn post 20, BuJaber wrote:What made you first suspect oka, and then change your mind?
Your first vote clearly wasn't random if you needed a reason to change it.
I think it's highly likely that scum knew ruru would pick 1 based on the picks (no one else picked 1 and no one picked 2, which I think is unusual) and because they could talk N0.
When oka voted ruru with his reasoning, I thought it was bad, because ruru had already stated plainly that she would pick 1 before she even got her rolecard.
But then I realized oka probably didn't see ruru's original post, and didn't have the knowledge that I think scum had.- ofrhz
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please don't feel that way. it was sass and not to intentionally make you feel badIn post 32, BuJaber wrote: Is this how you normally are?
Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.
VOTE: ofrhz- ofrhz
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uhhh wtf ruruIn post 52, ruru wrote:ODDLY FORMAL GREETING
EXPRESSION OF SURPRISE THAT A GAME ON MAFIASCUM DOT NET WHICH WAS SCHEDULED TO START STARTED
EXCUSE FOR MISSING RVS
RVS VOTE
VOTE: AP
pedit:
I'll be a good Janet I promise- ofrhz
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you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?In post 146, Enigma wrote:
Ok her scum play is sooooooooo very different to what we see here. As scum she posted meaningful discussions and fake analysis. Here, it sounds like she has a posting restriction ...In post 119, skitter30 wrote:viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75474
i'm having a lot of trouble seeing the person who kept posting to herself 'i am town' in her scum pt (i'm pretty sure this is last scumgame on site barring a marathon game last week) trying to pull any of these things off as scum tbhit is so different that it seems almost forced.- ofrhz
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Have you played with ruru as town or read any of her towngames?In post 152, Enigma wrote:In post 151, ofrhz wrote:
Yep.In post 146, Enigma wrote: you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?- ofrhz
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You may also be interested in purgatory where town!ruru entered the game claiming miller: viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76247In post 178, Enigma wrote: Yeh just read 721 she is spontaneous, but helpful at least with content. Here i feel is quite different - more random: no content here ... plus awkward non-town-beneficial choice/claim/play for no1 seed.
No games with anyone here .. haven't been on site for a loooooong time
In general, it's a bit odd that you would look at one person's scumgame where they played very differently and suggest that they're purposefully changing their scumgame. i mean it's possible but not very probable. it also kind of jumps the gun, since it seems like you didn't read any of her towngames for comparison initially.- ofrhz
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i think oka is town
what are you referring to here?In post 192, AP wrote:
Nope. That was the slot that actually got me pulling my hair off.In post 188, Invisibility wrote:
is this just a sheep?In post 186, AP wrote:Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.
VOTE: OkaAl he seems to do is nitpick anything that anyone else says.
do you mean that he is trying to be contrary for the sake of it?It looks like he wants to stand out as "doing something different" but -at the same time- nothing productive. He's spewing doubt in every single case or line of reasoning anyone else tries to build upon and that's it.- ofrhz
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he objects to things that he disagrees with, such as his analysis of Enigma's rvs vote and 133, and I'm not getting the vibe that he is being contrary for the sake of it. He hasn't really made any logical leaps in his contrary opinions, so I think he believes them
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^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:
In contrast to a post like this:In post 115, OkaPoka wrote:So you find it more likely that ruru is being honest about her intentions with the PGO play than potentially fakeclaiming and being an actual vigilante which is mafia aligned?
IMO strongest first pick for mafia would be the vigilante, gives you an extra NK and it removes PGO from play. That or roleblocker which would remove Doctor from play.
What I am saying is that ruru may have not played it optimally for town but maybe she did play it optimally for scum. So now the question is how good is ruru at mafia.
bolded part is just reachyIn post 100, Enigma wrote: Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?
Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?- ofrhz
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yeah kinda, though I read it as more oka playing off of a thought enigma had, not an actual idea he was trying to pushIn post 243, skitter30 wrote:In post 229, ofrhz wrote:^ I'm not sure if that made any sense
Basically, I think posts like this make sense and demonstrate attempts at balancing probabilities:
i find things like the bolded to be reach-y as wellIn post 116, OkaPoka wrote: if she was vengeful then she would run the risk of getting cc'd by the actual pgo/vig right?
unless she knew real pgo/vig was on her team, adding an extra layer of wifom- ofrhz
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i actually agree with this. in hindsight, this post was unnecessary and looks like busywork.In post 277, AP wrote:
Again, beating a dead horse. If there's noIn post 80, OkaPoka wrote:But is there town motivation?scum motivationit's a town action.
AP can be town- ofrhz
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Could you point out these good questions and thoughts?In post 318, brassherald wrote:I don't like the Enigma wagon, Enigma's ISO has some good questions, and good thoughts. That's a town ISO as far as I can tell.- ofrhz
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in invisibility's past town games, his ISO is always fluffy. I don't think this is AI for himIn post 305, OkaPoka wrote:because engima's reason for scumhunting seem to be town aligned, albeit disagreable. i can see the town motivation of trying to bring statistics into the game and trying to scumhunt using theory.
invis might as well post fluff as his reason to lynch ppl- ofrhz
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the impression i got from reading his scumgame in Coalition was that he was less flippant and more cooperative there. so for example, i think 253 is more likely to come from town than scum invis
basically, if you're expecting paragraphs or even sentences of analysis from invis, i highly doubt you'll get that from him from either alignment.- ofrhz
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yeah i can tell you from experience that this kind of sucks. you can still push your other scumreads thoughIn post 363, OkaPoka wrote:what if you hypo inno'd someone and then you end up scumreading them later?- ofrhz
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why?In post 447, Ausuka wrote: I still feel oka is kinda scummy but can't justify that? My strongest scumread outside Enigma is brassherald.If enigma is town there's scum in {ofr, skitter} IMO.- ofrhz
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is this still talking about sando's reaction to brass's analysis of his scumgame? if it is, then fwiw, i agree with sando and skitterIn post 443, BuJaber wrote:
1 person. Who shared an opinion. Who could be wrong.In post 441, Sando wrote:
Others are telling you exactly what I'm telling you, you don't want to listen to people and would rather double down on a bad argument.In post 440, BuJaber wrote:Believe me I'd love to find out that I'm wrong about what is scummy or not.
In post 423, skitter30 wrote:i don't really think this is a good reason to scumread him and i feel like the reasoning is kinda weak and ignores context- ofrhz
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Okay I think some of your back and forth makes more sense here. Aside from the “Sando agreeing with brass” thing, do you have a read on Sando?In post 455, BuJaber wrote:Let's make sure we're all talking about the same thing.
Skitter said she thought my reasoning is weak and she doesn't think Sando is scummy.
But my long discussion with Sando actually became about a whole different thing now. It is about a much more general thing: whst is the safest reaction as scum to someone describing things you would do as scum, correctly. Sando thinks it's ignore. I think ignoring would be suicide. So I asked him to provide me evidrnce of ignoring working in his favor in the future.- ofrhz
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Sorry to hear that brass. Take it easyIn post 458, brassherald wrote:@Mod my fiancee and I just broke up, I'm going to be a mess for a few days, just replace me please.- ofrhz
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Why did you pick Vulcan, the guy who you think siteflaked, here over other null reads?In post 459, Invisibility wrote:Sando - leantown
skitter30 - town
AP - null
brassherald - slight townlean
BuJaber - townlean
Ausuka - town
Skygazer - null
vulcan logician - siteflaked?
ceejayvinoya - null
ruru - townlean actually
ofrhz - town
OkaPoka - townlean
Enigma - null
{AP, Skygazer, Ceejay, Enigma, vulcan}
VOTE: vulcan logician- ofrhz
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i was trying to disagree with "sando is scummy for agreeing with brass's read on him, which is scummier than simply ignoring it"In post 491, BuJaber wrote:First point can you show me where.
Second point yes that's my case on you but that wasn't what ofrhz waa agreeing/disagreeing with.
I need to know when people are disagreeing with me about a general opinion on mafia strategy and when they are agreeing/disagreeing on a specific read
although wrt to sando's case, it feels like bujaber genuinely believes that agreeing is the scummy thing to do here, so i don't see this as scum-motivated, even if i don't agree with the foundations behind this push.
sando reads like town who has been wronged- ofrhz
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i'm confused why youIn post 413, OkaPoka wrote:honestly orfhz might be the scum on the wagon
a) think the wagon is scum-motivated when you were not independently townreading enigma as far as i can tell. rather, your logic kind of goes in the opposite direction: "the wagon built up quickly, so it is scum-motivated and is on town." how do you know the wagon isn't comprised of townies on the scummiest person in game?
b) assume because there is scum on the wagon, that i am scum on the wagon. is it because i left a vote without explanation?
watIn post 486, OkaPoka wrote:because she seems to be asking questions and making comments but not really pushing anything hard
i commented on enigma a while ago
if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to- ofrhz
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no, this was at oka, who said i wasn't "getting my hands dirty"In post 507, Enigma wrote:
Could you give an example of what I didn't respond to? Thanks.In post 506, ofrhz wrote:i commented on enigma a while ago
if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to
i asked invisibility to explain his questionable vote on VL, who hasn't responded yet
and i also threw a question at brass to explain what he found towny about his ISO, though i guess that will never get answered- ofrhz
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I commented on why I thought you were scummy in 216. It can be broadly summarized as using reachy logic to arrive at a conclusion that isn’t very probableIn post 510, Enigma wrote:
Your timeline on me so far:In post 506, ofrhz wrote: if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to
You asked me two questions,
1. Could ruru be playing differently to throw us off her scum game - yes
2. Have I read any of town ruru games or played with her - no
Then you voted me without commenting on my responses
Then you havn't pushed me since
I haven’t asked you follow up questions because I haven’t seen anything new to push without reiterating what someone else said- ofrhz
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What posts led you to town-toneread me?In post 516, vulcan logician wrote:I'm back after a prod and fully caught up. At this point, I am town reading ofrhz and okapoka on tone.
Ruru's claim has me townslotting her for the moment. It makes sense for meta reasons.
Skygazer: nullish to town. @skygazer, my "peppered in" paranoia of Ceej is warranted. He really isn't usually this townie as town. I have my eye on him, but, of course, that's a shit reason to sumread him.
No scumleans so far, sorry.- ofrhz
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i'm confusedIn post 520, Invisibility wrote:i could have sworn i responded
i was going to say i was waiting for a vulcan prod
VOTE: ceejay
you voted for him because he wasn't here (and in fact, you think he might have siteflaked), but once he was actually in the game, you removed your vote on him?- ofrhz
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i'm interested in why you didn't call out invisibility's vote here. his votes were on inactive players (in particular, a player invis thought may not even be checking the site), but as soon as the inactive players returned, he unvoted them, so literally no pressure was applied by his vote.In post 533, Ausuka wrote: this post is really bad; specifically the ceejay wagon, which is complete busywork. he's literally saying that he has no reason to scumread cjv.the vote accomplishes nothing and i don't see how it was meant to accomplish anything.- ofrhz
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i'm not sure how many of cardi's posts i actually understood
Do "hot maybes" = townleans?In post 664, Cardi B wrote:Hokay Im gonna say skitter,AP,ruru,ohrfrz probably town. I think Invinibilty,Skygazer n Engima are all hot maybes. VOTE: OkaPoka is where the shmoney is for me righnow.- ofrhz
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i think you forgot to write something hereIn post 662, Cardi B wrote:In post 371, ofrhz wrote:the impression i got from reading his scumgame in Coalition was that he was less flippant and more cooperative there. so for example, i think 253 is more likely to come from town than scum invis
basically, if you're expecting paragraphs or even sentences of analysis from invis, i highly doubt you'll get that from him from either alignment.
unless you just wanted to quote it for emphasis- ofrhz
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@cardi- have you played with me before?
I kind of agree with this. 277 reminded me of when AP was reading too much into one of his scumreads in another game I played with town!him (specifically, in Pick Your Poison when AP had some conspiracy theory that ruru and tw were scum together based on their RVS votes)In post 782, Sando wrote:
MetaIn post 781, OkaPoka wrote:why is AP in your not-lynch today?
Ok sorry.
General jovial nature, while277 is a pretty in-depth post that I don't think comes from scum(when combined with other non-serious posts). There's more to progressing game-state than just voting, and he's contributing imo. He's not in my town-pool, that's just CJ at this stage, but I think he's a terrible lynch today.- ofrhz
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I disagree with this. If a town vig did shoot ruru, they're effectively a VT now and this would narrow the pool of possible TPRs for scum.In post 856, Enigma wrote:If a town vig shot ruru, this might be useful information to share? No judging
Could help understanding reactions to the PGO claim, and also make a bit of sense of the night actions.- ofrhz
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how about we just do some good ol fashioned scumhunting without the setup spec
this kind of reads as awkward distancingIn post 250, brassherald wrote:
Invisibility is in this game?In post 249, OkaPoka wrote:pretty sure ausuka is in this game more than invis is, brass.
VOTE: Invisibility
I'd rather have the pressure vote on someone I forgot was in the game than Ausuka who I at least remembered.
In post 288, brassherald wrote:In post 287, OkaPoka wrote:id hope that people would talk more when they are mentioned
also i don't see how this has anything to do with scumhuntingI'm scumhunting, I'm just not confident enough in any of my reads to make cases.
Plus, I find its very hard to form a read on someone if they are not participating in the game.
That's just me, though, I might be crazy to want to base my reads on like content.
first brass has no strong scumreads to explain away his pressure voting inactives, yet 30 posts later he conjures up a confident scumread on invis. where did this newfound confidence come from?In post 318, brassherald wrote:I don't like the Enigma wagon, Enigma's ISO has some good questions, and good thoughts. That's a town ISO as far as I can tell.
Vulcan Logician promised more content in 240 and never followed up, I'd like to know why. I know the dude only has 3 posts, but they include him claiming he's a fairly active player. I will allow him more posts before making an actual read, but it makes me uneasy.
Invisibility is scum.
BuJaber, I'm leaning scum on.
I'll find the last scum tomorrow or something, going to the beach now.
okay seems like cardi was basically on the invis wagon for pressure, which by itself is fineIn post 786, Cardi B wrote:VOTE: invisibility if theres more to get from this lil dude I wanna see it. Joinin my mans okapoka ArrArrArr.In post 819, Cardi B wrote:
All Im sayins isIn post 817, OkaPoka wrote:I mean wasting a town investigator on him for a night.
We flip him because he is unreadable
0 other votes on invisibility oka be like "this bitch off the table"
3 other votes oka be like "oawww less lynch em"
Looks to me like nothin changed his mind! Skitter skitter talked abt why his content bad... I though she made sense (as usual )... okadude didnt even seem to noticed it, you knowwha Im sayin.
cardi then tries to scumread for his "inconsistency" in joining the invis wagon, when i think it was pretty evident oka was mainly on the wagon for pressure (which incidentally, is also the same reason cardi was on the wagon), i.e. oka was NOT on the invis wagon to "less lynch em"In post 828, Cardi B wrote:
I didnt like how it interactit with his own reasons, obvissly I didnt think it was a bad vote in general?In post 824, Skygazer wrote:I don't like how Cardi throws shade at Oka's vote after the hammer but joined the wagon directly after Oka's vote
for reference, oka's vote was in 784
as a bonus:
i could totally see invis doing a "townlean your scumpartner and another townie" hereIn post 57, Invisibility wrote:currently townleaning brassherald and Sando
as another bonus, if we lynch cardi, i don't have to read her posts
VOTE: cardi- ofrhz
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are you talking about cardi? what did you think of my case on cardi / do you have a read on herIn post 948, Skygazer wrote:I could see ceejay's initial ping vote and easy jump back onto the invis wagon as distancing.
Ofrhz also made that jump relatively quickly anda decent chunk of their scum leans seemed to be lynch bait iirc- ofrhz
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uhhh tbh i was only on that wagon for pressure and wasn't super strongly scumreading invis (the only thing that pinged me about him was his reaction when he was asked why he was voting for lurkers and immediately unvoting them once they returned). i didn't think the wagon would get hammered so fast.In post 978, skitter30 wrote:ofrhz -> also meh. seemed to hop on since a wagon was happening and didn't seem bothered by the fact thatone of his other major scumreads had just voted there like two posts before
why would the bolded deter me from joining the wagon? especially considering a few of my strong townreads were already on that wagon, and there's always the possibility of bussing- ofrhz
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@duckling, i think bujaber requested replacement
i'm townreading skitter, and the case against her seems weak. in general, i don't like the logic of "there is scum on the enigma wagon" --> "let's look for scum on the enigma wagon," which seems to be the bulk of the case against her.
oka is probably town
vulcan is kinda town by weak meta (he has a town meta of not doing a whole lot d1, his scum meta involves actually trying d1)
ap makes the most sense here, but i also think he is unlikely to confuse his scumpartner with someone else, unless he was faking that part.
i'm more inclined to vote vulcan or ap, but also like... not really all that inclined to vote either.
This thought has occurred to me as well, but I'm not sure if scum!ausuka would go for it.In post 1034, AP wrote:OK.. so assuming Ausuka's town here makes that lynch pool ideal. Even if she is scum (I don't think she is) and is telling the truth about going for Vig/PGO and not getting it means scum would have believed ruru = Ausuka cannot be scum AND killed ruru.
But what if Ausuka did land Vig/PGO and is now gambitting? That would be a very good way to keep the PRs away AND doe her to survive unsuspected for a couple more days.
DISCUSS before we do anything hasty. We are alead already and we don't want to give scum back the grounds that we had won.- ofrhz
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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answer the bolded?In post 1088, Ausuka wrote:
Nothing to do with the draft! I just thought she was scum.In post 1040, Enigma wrote:
One more for Ausuka, why were you, after ruru flip, interested in ofrhz (+you/cjv) given she is the last one on the draft?In post 911, Ausuka wrote:In post 790, ofrhz wrote:I think I'm here right now (town to scum):
skitter, bujaber, ceejay, ruru, okapoka
sando, AP
skygazer, vulcan, enigma
ausuka, cardi, inviscan you explain more of these reads ofrhz? specifically I'd want to hear the reasoning for your reads on me and cjv.
Me and cjv were the reads I found most questionable.
I would love to see ofrhz answer this actually
- voting vulcan for doing not actively contributing when not really scrutinizing invis when he did basically the same thing
- some of your reads don't feel real, especially the push on skitter
like this part. i know you don't have a problem with wagon analysis because you were suggesting we lynch on the enigma wagon before enigma even flipped, which i didn't like eitherIn post 1084, Ausuka wrote: You went through the invis votes and singled out Cardi and ofrhz iirc?
yesterday, i liked cjv's early pressure on enigma. i still think he's town for initially gutscumreading invis and then the L-1 vote on his wagon
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pedit: i think AP could have faked that accidental hammer. also if we have to lynch in those four people, i think AP is now the only person i'd be willing to lynch, because i think Invis kind of spewed town!vulcan in 543- ofrhz
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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.................lolIn post 1111, OkaPoka wrote:every other post orfhz makes me want to lynch him/her and the other half makes me think obv!town
go take it up with the mod. there aren't supposed to be any mid-game alignment changes in this setup- ofrhz
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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In post 1160, ceejayvinoya wrote:Definitely sure AP is lying tho. I'm not seeing anything at all from him that indicates he's the doctor.- ofrhz
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ofrhz Jack of All Trades
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yeahIn post 1162, OkaPoka wrote:<skitter, cardi, vulcan, music> left
honestly tho looking at how we picked roles you guys could have picked up some solid roles lmao
tfw - ofrhz
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