Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[UglyDuck]

Current lynch pool: Espeonage/UglyDuck/pinturicchio/Draynth

Reason: LAL (Lynch all LURKERS)

It's been more than 2 hours (two and a half even) and they still haven't posted. (One thing I've learnt from Dr Evil is..

Oh cmon how are you not gonna make your lynch pool me Draynth and NM given the player in the game?

[UglyDuck]

Also the duck bus gif is the best thing ever

[UglyDuck]

also do I understand correctly that the mafia does not get a kill in this game. Or is it just so "assumed" that it is not mentioned in the set up?

[UglyDuck]

not on MS, just once offsite like 2 years ago

I was scum that time tho, nailed scum on the other team and got NK'd >.<

Hmmm, ok. I asked cuz 25 pinged me a bit. It feels like something you think you're supposed to feel so you're just saying it, if that makes sense?

--

Oh cmon how are you not gonna make your lynch pool me Draynth and NM given the player in the game?

Lol that's so true

--

also do I understand correctly that the mafia does not get a kill in this game. Or is it just so "assumed" that it is not mentioned in the set up?

this is reminding me of:

a) scum!esp 'forgetting' that scum don't get to kill in the last iteration of jungle republic in an attempt to fake a townslip

b) you overly focusing on attempting to understanding the mechanics like you did in pyp in an attempt to distance yourself from them [ie duh that I don't know what scum can do since I'm not scum]

--

lynch espe d1
???
???
town wins!

This is bothering me in the same way that ceejay's vote on AP was bothering me. Why is your immediate response to esp to call for him to be lynched him? Ceejay did the same thing to AP.

--

duckling I'm getting scum vibes from you :/

--

Also in the last iteration of jungle republic, esp did in fact get hard-cleared by just about everyone for bussing scum!a50 super-hard, so I think that there is some merit to this theory

First part - no opinion I guess
Second part - lol
Third part - it was you all that chose to name me a newb skum that game... it is on me that the LAL tactic worked out, and I own that.... but go back and read the thread... any questions I had I am like.... 99% sure I asked in QT.

Also, you calling me out kind of negated the point of me asking. Good players should be smarter every once and a while. Us dummies can create avenues for info that you can't... as long as you like... shut up for 2 hours every once and a while.

[UglyDuck]

*insert post where TW tells me to read up on Skitter*

[UglyDuck]

also the previous is a joke in case not clear

[UglyDuck]

also gonna go ahead and kick it off with a

VOTE: Skitter

So far, way different from the one I just played with

[UglyDuck]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am not going to give details on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

[UglyDuck]

lol, ok, this'll be fun

a) @uglyduck: OK, what useful info were you expecting to gain from seeing who would be eager to answer that question?

b) @the worst: I didn't decide you were scum from the get-go. Your early posts don't really feel like town-you, and you're not interacting with me the way I'd expect town!you to be interacting with me

c) @the worst: What do you mean by 'Skitter is a lot keener and less careful here than she usually is'?

(ie 'keener' isn't used super commonly in american-english and the definition that I'm applying here doesn't really make sense given the rest of the sentence as far as I can tell )

d) @the worst: why are you voting me right now?

Current lynch pool: Espeonage/UglyDuck/pinturicchio/Draynth

Reason: LAL (Lynch all LURKERS)

It's been more than 2 hours (two and a half even) and they still haven't posted. (One thing I've learnt from Dr Evil is..

Oh cmon how are you not gonna make your lynch pool me Draynth and NM given the player in the game?

This is giving me the worst paranoia I've ever experienced in my entire life

You have played with me more than anyone else on this site - don’t say it out loud - but if you take a moment you will figure out my alignment

[UglyDuck]

lol, ok, this'll be fun

a) @uglyduck: OK, what useful info were you expecting to gain from seeing who would be eager to answer that question?

b) @the worst: I didn't decide you were scum from the get-go. Your early posts don't really feel like town-you, and you're not interacting with me the way I'd expect town!you to be interacting with me

c) @the worst: What do you mean by 'Skitter is a lot keener and less careful here than she usually is'?

(ie 'keener' isn't used super commonly in american-english and the definition that I'm applying here doesn't really make sense given the rest of the sentence as far as I can tell )

d) @the worst: why are you voting me right now?

I assumed one skum would read way to much into it and not be willing to let it go

[UglyDuck]

lol, ok, this'll be fun

a) @uglyduck: OK, what useful info were you expecting to gain from seeing who would be eager to answer that question?

b) @the worst: I didn't decide you were scum from the get-go. Your early posts don't really feel like town-you, and you're not interacting with me the way I'd expect town!you to be interacting with me

c) @the worst: What do you mean by 'Skitter is a lot keener and less careful here than she usually is'?

(ie 'keener' isn't used super commonly in american-english and the definition that I'm applying here doesn't really make sense given the rest of the sentence as far as I can tell )

d) @the worst: why are you voting me right now?

I assumed one skum would read way to much into it and not be willing to let it go

I have been informed my sarcasm doesn’t context well over posting - that was sarcasm.

[UglyDuck]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am

not going to give details

on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

Not gonna give details? You're just casting shade then.

Not casting shit. If i wanted to cast shade i would say something suspicious and ominous. Instead i have save “i see no upside in revealing my reasons to you”.
Let me clear the shade in case the vote wasn’t sufficient - skitter is skummy to me rn

[UglyDuck]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am

not going to give details

on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

Not gonna give details? You're just casting shade then.

Not casting shit. If i wanted to cast shade i would say something suspicious and ominous. Instead i have save “i see no upside in revealing my reasons to you”.
Let me clear the shade in case the vote wasn’t sufficient - skitter is skummy to me rn

Shit *her* - mb skitter

[UglyDuck]

I want to see Ugly's reasoning in aboutttttt 2 or 3 real life days
Got a bit of a weird feel from skitz myself this game. I think I'll be able to read her pretty soon.

Probs not sharing this game day - just want to get ahead of it

[UglyDuck]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am not going to give details on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

The upside to that is that there are like four other players (including me) in that last game too, so you giving a solid meta read on skitter could help us to sort her out. I mean, I've been reading skitter's posts so far with special attention and I can't see that much difference between here and the last two games I've played with her.

I think you're town here! This would be the first time I don't scumread you right from the start of the game lol

@UglyDuck I think you missed this

I absolutely did - thanks

[UglyDuck]

ok that was facetious.
but.

given this isnt skitters v/la time and she is an active poster why hold off for that long? she's under the scope, onus is on her to alignment spew rn.

Ugly got some time to talk about this?

You have a quarter of a bottle of scotch of my time

[UglyDuck]

Will your thoughts get progressively better?


Alright. Why would you hold off on voicing your thoughts on how skitter is different until d2, from a holistic pov?

I choose to hold off bc i can. What would myreasons matter at this point?

[UglyDuck]

Will your thoughts get progressively better?


Alright. Why would you hold off on voicing your thoughts on how skitter is different until d2, from a holistic pov?

I choose to hold off bc i can. What would myreasons matter at this point?

If skitter is scum you die if you don't explain
If skitter is town you die if you don't explain it

I agree let her produce more readable content first but we should be airing this shit before EOD

Yeah...i feel like me getting lynched D1 based solely on this would create more information than i ever potentially could. Including my reasons on skitter skum read.

[UglyDuck]

Wait duh I know how to solve this:

UglyDuck, whenever you come back and read this, please tell me what you think about Draynth

UD is town this game and he was scum with Draynth last game; knowing another player's alignment from the start helps to sort that player from the begining in another games.

Honestly - i am behind sorry.
Work should be wrapped up in 30 and then i will re read and get to this sorry

[UglyDuck]

Wait duh I know how to solve this:

UglyDuck, whenever you come back and read this, please tell me what you think about Draynth

UD is town this game and he was scum with Draynth last game; knowing another player's alignment from the start helps to sort that player from the begining in another games.

Answering this first bc it was directed at me -

1) Dray questioning my (and I suppose Sando's) understanding of the set up.

also do I understand correctly that the mafia does not get a kill in this game. Or is it just so "assumed" that it is not mentioned in the set up?

Skitter already mentioned it, this feels forced to me. It says it right there in the setup post on the first page.

also do I understand correctly that the mafia does not get a kill in this game. Or is it just so "assumed" that it is not mentioned in the set up?

So assumed since the werewolf one is mentioned. At least don't see anywhere where it's mentioned that they definitively don't.

Not sure how both of you managed to miss it, especially presuming you actually went back to check if it was and decided it wasn't there

----- TBF I just played a game with him where I did this as skum... like a lot, so I am forced to take it with salt. Fwiw... I do this almost all the time (ask in the public forum) even if I ask in my PT, just in case it is missed by someone else. I mean obviously as skum I would do it for different reasons - but whatever, that is how I feel about that.

2) Dray calling TYR opportunistic.

Yeah I'm not hopping on the skitter wagon unfortunately, I'm happy for UD to hold his reasoning as someone (Sando) explained it can pretty much negate said reasoning but i'm also not gonna join a wagon based on that withheld info.

I'd also like to see TYR's response to 97 because 95, ironically, feels ingenuine. Seems like he's being opportunistic.

3) Drays standings.

I only gave the thread a quick skim on the first read through so I'm gonna go back and think about some posts now.

Only ones that really stand out are

Town - Skitter

Scum - UD , Sando (based on 154)

--- So the weird thing here to me is that he puts both me and Sando in this pool. But like... if we are both skum faking that we don't understand... ect. that doesn't really make sense. seems paranoid.


There is not a lot to go on here but what I would say is that -
The Skum!Dray I played with stood behind the lines, but at least when they spoke they made an attempt. This kind of just seems lazy. Really don't know to be honest. If this is also Town!Dray then I guess I wouldn't mind lynching here if the content is never going to increase, but all in all I am always against LAL lynches on D1 based on the information it provides for the subsequent days (so yah, free info... lurk against me when you are skum).

[UglyDuck]

also I am going to bed but will post more info in the am - this is where my notes are at for now:

ManWithNoName - null
skitter30 - skum
Espeonage - null
Sando - dependent on flip, but null
the worst - null
ceejayvinoya - no idea
TheYankeeReaper - town
pinturicchio - either town or fantastic skum. leaning on the town side.
Not_Mafia - no idea
AP - no idea
Draynth - town


* I said I would do more tomorrow so don't hold this post against me, just based off of brief re read I did to answer TW question *

If I were to throw two cents in I would say it is surprising (on this forum) no LAL concept has been brought up yet. But again, I will read more tomorrow and post it then.

[UglyDuck]

Draynth - town

Why is your conclusion that draynth is town given 359?

I did say why in the post - I think that he at least "tried" as skum. this seems different.

[UglyDuck]

This is where I am at in summary:

1) AP (Null/Skum) - Everything about him makes me want scream skum but it is based off of interactions of one game played. The way they leaned off of TW and then off seems quite like town to me, and then the way they are posting seems different than the AP I know.

2) ceejayvinoya (Null/Skum) - Definition of lazy/padding their posts. Pretty much RVS then has done nothing but bring up.... nothing.

3) Draynth (Town) - See previous post.

4) Espeonage (Null) - Has not done anything. Brought up multiball tactics after unvoting then revoted the same person which I guess is too dumb to be skummy - so null.

5) ManWithNoName - Either super town or super skum. going with super town at this point.

6) Not_Mafia - Was unhelpful when I played with them as skum, and is unhelpful now? Is this their meta? Really asking here, because players like that should just be policy lynched. Do they ever actually contribute anything... useful?

7) Pin - Not touching it. I think they are town in the first game they think I am town and I don't know what to do with that.

8) Sando - Interactions seem quite towny.

9) Skitter - Skum-a-souraus-rex.

10) TW - oh bro duck, how I hope you are town.

11) Yankee - No idea.


conclusions on my re reads. I will post details tomorrow. today was long.

[UglyDuck]

sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

what does this mean? I get you are aknoledging you were prodded... but skum aint dedded means?

[UglyDuck]

I feel bad and confused if I've ignored things you've specifically directed at me. I don't necessarily feel the need to comment on every post you make but I definitely don't intend to ignore anyone.

Well, idk if I phrased them as questions so much as made observations that I was kinda expecting you to make some sort of response to, but maybe I didn't convey that well so that might be on me, idk. So like, don't feel bad or anything <3

(I was worried for a minute that I had done something to like make you feel bad on like a personal level or something, which is not what I want to do like at all)

Espe dead null. Disliked his early content but on the balance of things not really an AI distaste. Need more content when he's available.

So this was one of the things that I had brought up earlier in 350. You had oringally said his vote on you felt like 'good ol' fashioned scumfuckery' so I'm trying to understand why you stopped thinking that the vote was scummy and why you're now saying his early game was probably NAI.

I have a *slight* (ie like *tiny*) townlean on NM and theoretically I'd be down to pl him but this setup only allows for one mislynch if wolves don't crosskill so a pl probably isn't the best idea here.

--

sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

what does this mean? I get you are aknoledging you were prodded... but skum aint dedded means?

he's basically saying that he wanted scum to get lynched in his absence and the connotation is that he still maintains the same scumread that he had earlier, which I think is the one on tw.

aside, is english your first language?

yes it is.
this...

In post 405, Espeonage wrote:
sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

... is not english

[UglyDuck]

I feel bad and confused if I've ignored things you've specifically directed at me. I don't necessarily feel the need to comment on every post you make but I definitely don't intend to ignore anyone.

Well, idk if I phrased them as questions so much as made observations that I was kinda expecting you to make some sort of response to, but maybe I didn't convey that well so that might be on me, idk. So like, don't feel bad or anything <3

(I was worried for a minute that I had done something to like make you feel bad on like a personal level or something, which is not what I want to do like at all)

Espe dead null. Disliked his early content but on the balance of things not really an AI distaste. Need more content when he's available.

So this was one of the things that I had brought up earlier in 350. You had oringally said his vote on you felt like 'good ol' fashioned scumfuckery' so I'm trying to understand why you stopped thinking that the vote was scummy and why you're now saying his early game was probably NAI.

I have a *slight* (ie like *tiny*) townlean on NM and theoretically I'd be down to pl him but this setup only allows for one mislynch if wolves don't crosskill so a pl probably isn't the best idea here.

--

sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

what does this mean? I get you are aknoledging you were prodded... but skum aint dedded means?

he's basically saying that he wanted scum to get lynched in his absence and the connotation is that he still maintains the same scumread that he had earlier, which I think is the one on tw.

aside, is english your first language?

yes it is.
this...

In post 405, Espeonage wrote:
sup, prodded but scum aint dedded yet.

... is not english

but also thank you for the clarification.

[UglyDuck]

pretty much accepting I was wrong about Skitter at this point. I am also now suspicious of some of my TRs so idk what to do. just gonna

UNVOTE:

for now.

Looking back into Sando and TW.

[UglyDuck]

Anyone a fan of the Elli tell? Because Draynth is posting elsewhere and not in this game.

I find it vaguely scummy, but I've certainly seen town do it as well. When scum don't have daychat it's less of a tell imo, since with daychat they tend to converse in their scumthread before commenting in the game.

VOTE: Sando

[UglyDuck]

Anyone a fan of the Elli tell? Because Draynth is posting elsewhere and not in this game.

I find it vaguely scummy, but I've certainly seen town do it as well. When scum don't have daychat it's less of a tell imo, since with daychat they tend to converse in their scumthread before commenting in the game.

VOTE: Sando

meant to reply to the thread, not quote that when I voted. sorry.

[UglyDuck]

Are you going to explain the vote though?

yeah probably at some point.

[UglyDuck]

*Looks at clock*

Yes it is indeed some point.

This is like the second time you refused to out reasons and said you'll say it later. What about skitter? Is skitter still scum?

not the second time. answered the skitter thing and quite clearly stated I no longer think he is skum.

also, huge part of why I got the info I wanted out of the situation is because I chose not to share the opinion at the time.

Furthermore, why does TW think it is bad that I withhold this time but not when I did it against SkitteR?

[UglyDuck]

Bull
Fucking
Shit

I spat it when you said you'd withhold your case on skitter. Just it was earlier in the phase and I insisted you do it before EOD.

so I am gonna pull the quote out of self -D but also I am not calling you skummy for it I was just pointing out the inconsistency.

[UglyDuck]

-> uglyduck responds to what I said about him, and says he thinks I'm behaving differently from last game, and votes me (I still want him to describe how I'm being different)

@UglyDuck I'm eager to know about this too, it's by far the less random thing I've read on the thread, along with the Espeonage vote on the worst and visceversa

Yeah I absolutely am not going to give details on how I think Skitter is behaving differently at this point. I see no upside to that.

In regard to the point of me asking the question - I just wanted to see who seemed eager to answer.

I mean I am happy to explain everything I've done so far skitter. it just feels like you've decided I'm scum from the get go

I think you know my town game drifts from aloof to very lucid at the drop of an hat. Haven't really seen anything to sink my teeth into yet.


pedit: vibing that deeply UgDuck, Skitter is a lot keener and less careful here than she usually is.

I have no clue how to fucking snip on this forum so sorry about that, but that was my reference.

[UglyDuck]

correct yeah

incorrect.
My skitter reasons were as you put it "reasons" which I have changed my mind about.

My reasons about you... as you pointed out... have nothing to do with your meta

[UglyDuck]

correct yeah

incorrect.
My skitter reasons were as you put it "reasons" which I have changed my mind about.

My reasons about you... as you pointed out... have nothing to do with your meta

poorly quoted - the last bit was in regards to Sando.

[UglyDuck]

My skitter reasons were as you put it "reasons" which I have changed my mind about.

My reasons about you... as you pointed out... have nothing to do with your meta

You've changed your mind yeah, but have you ever actually articulated those "reasons" about skitter?

You pointed that out about me? Where?

Are you always this cryptic/vague?

I never said I pointed out my reasons.

[UglyDuck]

ugh I'm done.

Vote: UD

weird.

[UglyDuck]

ugh I'm done.

Vote: UD

Also like... when did you start exactly?

[UglyDuck]

While that's funny. Funny isn't townie.

wasn't meant to be funny. was pointing out that it is hard to do less than me, but you have accomplished it thus far.

[UglyDuck]

My skitter reasons were as you put it "reasons" which I have changed my mind about.

My reasons about you... as you pointed out... have nothing to do with your meta

You've changed your mind yeah, but have you ever actually articulated those "reasons" about skitter?

You pointed that out about me? Where?

Are you always this cryptic/vague?

I never said I pointed out my reasons.

What the actual fuck...

please re read the post where I said "as you pointed out..."

[UglyDuck]

please re read the post where I said "as you pointed out..."

Yeah ok...

Is UD saying that they voted for Skitter for "reasons" but when pressed about constantly voting people for "reasons" defends the skitter one by saying their "reasons" are no longer valid and they don't scumread them?

Cause that doesn't answer the question of why UD is currently just constantly using "reasons".

See the bold part, this whole thing from you makes zero of the senses.

how have you not gotten that I am making no effort to make sense at this point?

[UglyDuck]

Ok but like why tho? Bc that's bad.

yeah yeah whatever.

Real question
Doing nothing > than saying something without reasons
Doing nothing < saying something without reasons\

which is your preference?

[UglyDuck]

Ok but like why tho? Bc that's bad.

THE DAY HAS FINALLY COME.....

I objectively agree with Espe's statement.

look them in the eye and say that

[UglyDuck]

Ok but like why tho? Bc that's bad.

THE DAY HAS FINALLY COME.....

I objectively agree with Espe's statement.

look them in the eye and say that

wait I got the avatars messed up you are no joke there

[UglyDuck]

doing nothing.

assuming you mean doing nothing is better than the other option?

[UglyDuck]

doing nothing.

assuming you mean doing nothing is better than the other option?

any day

remember how we had the "we should talk post the game" chat before?
after the game I would love to find out if that is actually what you think to be true "on any day"

[UglyDuck]

also why does every game you seem to play end up in someone switching to a weird version of your avatar?

[UglyDuck]

I'm getting some, "I've been caught but y'all shouldn't have caugth me because of OTHER PEOPLE" vibes from UD rn.

in what world are you reading me in any form as a "caught?"
which am I?
an idiotic WW or stupid Mafia?

Why would either of those factions as me (or anyone for that matter) act in this way?

[UglyDuck]

also why does every game you seem to play end up in someone switching to a weird version of your avatar?

Well I'm sick of seeing people with duck in their username not being ducks so I am balancing the world.

1) it is a Swan reference

2) how in the hell is this not a cartoon duck?

[UglyDuck]

also why does every game you seem to play end up in someone switching to a weird version of your avatar?

Well I'm sick of seeing people with duck in their username not being ducks so I am balancing the world.

1) it is a Swan reference

2) how in the hell is this not a cartoon duck?

green background, beady eyes, long beak... the only difference is you are looking the wrong direction and I am animated.

[UglyDuck]

Pin is in this game right?
Pin - come tell the duck people to stop picking on me.

[UglyDuck]

I'm getting some, "I've been caught but y'all shouldn't have caugth me because of OTHER PEOPLE" vibes from UD rn.

in what world are you reading me in any form as a "caught?"
which am I?
an idiotic WW or stupid Mafia?

Why would either of those factions as me (or anyone for that matter) act in this way?

I honestly don't know or care which one you are. But I'll take this as confirmation that you are one.

And because obfuscation, confusion, and lack of information are core pillars of how scum gets advantages over town.

yeah.. except the whole bit about how I presented this situation would in no way shape or form ever possibly give me an advantage if I were Mafia/WW.

[UglyDuck]

I'm getting some, "I've been caught but y'all shouldn't have caugth me because of OTHER PEOPLE" vibes from UD rn.

in what world are you reading me in any form as a "caught?"
which am I?
an idiotic WW or stupid Mafia?

Why would either of those factions as me (or anyone for that matter) act in this way?

I honestly don't know or care which one you are. But I'll take this as confirmation that you are one.

And because obfuscation, confusion, and lack of information are core pillars of how scum gets advantages over town.

yeah.. except the whole bit about how I presented this situation would in no way shape or form ever possibly give me an advantage if I were Mafia/WW.

I mean what happens in the "worst case scenario" for you. I vote you without reason, you get lynched... then what? People.... don't find that skummy? your reasoning does not parse.

[UglyDuck]

and i am going to play video games and sit on the couch for a while. this was eventful though, thank you for something fun for once on a day 1. I hope to get the energy up to ruffle your feathers again (get it?)

[UglyDuck]

Basically everyone trying to say that WW and mafia are different is bad.

Probably scum, but also hella bad.

i mean... no, that is wrong?

WW can kill and Mafia can't.
Yeah we need to get rid of all of them, but as the set up is 7-3-2... why would you not prefer to get rid of the two that can kill. Like for real - best case awesome world = we lynch WW, and WW kills Mafia, and then we lynch other WW... because the only shit left is lynches and all of a sudden we are up 7-2 on day 3. Obv that is an exaggerated point, put you can feel free to scale it down accordingly. the point that Town is born with the upper hand if there are no NKs to be had is simply a fact.

[UglyDuck]

WEREWOLVES, KILL, MAFIA, FIRST.

THERE'S NO ARGUING ABOUT IT. IF THEY KILL TOWN IT'S A MAFIA WIN FOR SURE.

SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEER

Is this you pointing out there is a seer or calling them a seer?

PLUS, WHY ARE YOU SAYING THAT TOWN SHOULDN'T CARE ABOUT WHAT FACTION THEY LYNCH?

So we lynch scum, who's gonna care more about which faction we hit within scum, the faction that ain't scum, or one of the scum factions?

Like...this one is pretty clear cut here.

on one hand you have a point to the extent that we should lynch "any skum" over "any town", but again, obviously we would prefer to lynch WW over Mafia.

[UglyDuck]

Bc killing any sort of scum matters so much more.

that's not the point. I agree that killing any skum is better than picking one faction and saying "we won't look for the other we just want to lynch this one". But that is not how it works. We look for skum - that happens, no matter frickin what. The issue is that people are stating that there is no upside to lynching WW over Mafia, which is just nonsense.

[UglyDuck]

What's not so great is that our reads are not matching: don't really care about scumreads, but your townreads are weird: why AP and Fumu?

My townreads at this moment are Sando, skitter, UD and myself, so hit me up to see who wants to be which Beatle (I know I know, but someone has to be Ringo). MWNN is Brian Epstein and I'm looking for our George Martin. It's pretty obvious that the Seer will be Ravi Shankar when confirmed.

APs posts seems generally townie, maybe only deserves "not todays lynched", but yeah...not todays lynch

Fumu due to our 1v1, feels like Quick tbh, but def feels TvT. I'd say almost 100% not wolf due to sheer audacity though.

Why UD in townteam?!

My problem with AP is that in our last game it seemed like he didn't care that much, and he was town there. I agree that his posts have been townie, but I don't know, he's pretty unsortable to me, seems like he can't be metaread at all. I really want to townread tho, our group would be a lot more shagadelic baby!

UD is pretty easy to read when you have already played with him. Even him being scumread by many makes me believe even more that he's town, since I scumread in our first two games together and he was town in both, but he do plays scummy. But when he was indeed scum, in our third game together, it was like "oooooh so this is what scum!UD looks like".

Can't really take offense to that. My skum game was freeking awful.

[UglyDuck]

General Question - is this just what NM does? Like is the pop in rando mean nothing posts just NAI or is it different than usual?

[UglyDuck]

Some people need to change their "town reads" because they aren't looking good at all.

This statement is awful. Either be more specific and engage with "some people", or don't say anything at all

Okay, I'll be specific here:

I'm scum leaning already anyone that is tip-toying to push TW but like saying "he's been scummy hasn't him" almost like waiting to someone start pushing him for a lynch. Now, can you say who those people are?

Hint Pintu, you're one of them.

just to clarify, this is you saying you do not find TW skummy right?

[UglyDuck]

I'm a bad lynch in general but I'm also becoming a compromise lynch..... nice.

I am today's lynch 0% of the time, find someone more interesting....

love you duck bro - but you are no where near 0%. If you are town acting under that assumption you should shift gears.

[UglyDuck]

I'm a bad lynch in general but I'm also becoming a compromise lynch..... nice.

I am today's lynch 0% of the time, find someone more interesting....

love you duck bro - but you are no where near 0%. If you are town acting under that assumption you should shift gears.

nowhere*

[UglyDuck]

I'm a bad lynch in general but I'm also becoming a compromise lynch..... nice.

I am today's lynch 0% of the time, find someone more interesting....

love you duck bro - but you are no where near 0%. If you are town acting under that assumption you should shift gears.

Do you think I'm trying to shift gears atm?

no, I am saying if you are town you should.

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Espeonage

[UglyDuck]

had some crazy irl nonsense pop up the last few days. I am attempting at a read through now. apologies.

[UglyDuck]

OK first off gonna say something that was said before in the game (I personally have no clue of it's validity, but it seemed to be agreed with): Since NM is not on the wagon we are essentially at L-1 on Skitter.

I know I started the day on a Skum Skitter hunt by I am still standing by my changed mind and think that she is probably not Skum. Reads aside the wagon formation is interesting. 2 people jump off of Ceejay and onto Skitter to swing a 4-2 and then we lye now at 5-3.

I need to finish reading, but my initial thought is that if Skitter and Ceejay are the options, I prefer Ceejay to Skitter.

[UglyDuck]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

[UglyDuck]

wait... why am i skummy exactly? Is it not more likely ceejay gets two votes to Open the day and then I pick up making ceejay skummy?

Also like 99% tw is skum so gonna go there

VOTE: theworst

Can you say this again? I don't understand what you mean

I think he says I'm scummier than him and I should be the one getting wagoned right now. Not him. Poor duck.

Well considering everyone is skummier than me imo - yes. By my point was more based on VCA and common sense. You seem to be an alright canadite, a wagon starts to form, followed by imidiate larger counter wagon on me. Since the whole 3 faction thing not as solid as a point as i would like it to be but i still think that just based off of the votes so far ceejay flip would be very revealing.
So yeah - if anyone wants to go TW lmk but until then,

VOTE: Ceejay

[UglyDuck]

OK - I have returned from what was an extremely unexpected work + personal catastrophe. I know I said that once before this game, but I thought it was over - apologies about that.
I am kind of working backwards here, but to start with the most relevant thing I see in regards to (sorry to be selfish) me...
How in all of the fuck are Pintu and I partners. Like literally based on everyone's posts of how good Pintu is as either alignment and etc, etc... why would he bother D1 TRing me without any merit whatsoever? How does that not come back to haunt him (assuming he doesn't get WW murdered N1)??
For those of you that have not played with me as skum - I invite you to go back and read my skum game(s). The clear Pintu play would of been to target the SHIT out of me as he always does in like every game we have ever played together (which is like 80%+ of the games I have on this site). Cmon TW- I know how much you like to go and read back, give that one a try and tell me I am wrong.
Maybe I am a WW.. I mean I'm not, but that is the only logical skum conclusion here because based on the Pintu interaction, if one thing for god damn sure... I am not Mafia. So either, Pintu was accidentally TRing a WW or he was TRing a Town.
TW has played with me enough to know like literally everything above, which is why I am not loving a TR on him right now.


Complete honesty - I need to do a thorough D1 read (which I am doing now).

This is insanely skummy tbf:

I don't have much time to go in depth about how I got to the following conclusion, so I'll just say "Welp, I'm AP"

I think Espeonage and the worst are scum together (reminder: Scum = anti-town). Espeo is getting wagoned and the only player he feels fine voting is tw who doesn't even have a real chance to get lynched?

If Espeo flips a WW I think tw is the other one and we have the power from then on (either by lynching him or leashing as someone suggested, although I'm not a fan of the latter myself).

If Espeo flips Mafia though, then not only tw is Mafia, but also one of CJV/skitter .. I think.

@Fumuki: I'm TRing you for your weird logic. I mean, I get the feeling you were looking for "which lynch was more likely to go through" between CJV and Espeo rather than which of them is more likely scum (reminder: Scum in my book = anti-town). You also wanted to "save" skitter today, yet I fifn't get the impression you were TRing her!!

Now the reason I TR this is I cannot see any anti-town player saying this in the open. It's kinda the definition for "too scummy to be scum" kind of revelation. Feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding your logic.

The one thing I would say is that it does not have a scenario where AP considers ESP as Town - which I feel like Skum would be sure to include.

[UglyDuck]

am I Fuggo?

[UglyDuck]

Who else would Fuggo be?

yeah you wanna like answer the question as I am fairly certain shit like your votes shouldn't count to this point.

[UglyDuck]

can someone please tell me specifically who "Fuggo" is?

[UglyDuck]

As far as rolls with seer/ww (both wolves are good at scumhunting and scum play, plus I smelled a rat wrt AP) have mafia well positioned to go down like a house of cards. we just need to make them die pronto considering how dangerous they are.

but wait - I thought targeting WW specifically was skummy and bad tactics? nooooo? is this not accurate? whatttt????
your play really hits the fan when you have a PR.

[UglyDuck]

So TW is the Seer, no CC, with a crumbed claim and crumbed guilty...

Remind me why there are votes on him?

Piggy was the only TW voter today? He's on UD now, although probably actually not due to nomenclature.

I also voted TW today before switching.
Also all of your nick names for people are incredibly hard to keep up with.

[UglyDuck]

also now that I have caught up... I don't get the hesitation/confusion here

1) TW is Seer and has a result and we lynch AP and find a wolf and yay
2) TW is not a Seer and is WW ... and yeah that doesn't really make sense since they got Mafia last night so why risk it for one kill?
3) TW is not a Seer and is Mafia ... and yeah that doesn't really make sense since they would be the only Mafia left and then would be known the next day unless they are actually gambling on a WW result and a not getting a Seer-CC like... ever in the game...
4) TW is an arrogant SOB Town that thinks they are doing us a favor that will probably cost us the game.... or they are right and then awesome (if the case, good job #ResultsOriented)

#1 and # 4 are the only ones that make sense. Either way, we should lynch AP.
If we lynch AP, and AP is WW, TW wakes up dead!seer or awesome dead!town, or I guess sending Mafia to their last - but I don't think so.
If we lynch AP and AP is Town, we either find Skum TW (assumed WW, as only one Mafia left) or we find Town TW who is trying to make an asinine Day 2 early read on someone with like next to no information... right? please comfort me and tell me you find that idea ridiculous, TW...



VOTE: AP

[UglyDuck]

I like his nicknames for people who d'you think is scum Ugglez?

At this point I am forced to no longer believe it is you. by my math the best case scenario if you are skum means you are WW and you end up 1-2-3 on Day 4... which I can't believe would be worth it. That't without factoring in that if you are not seer then someone could CC.

Obv from that I think AP is skummy.
On my radar is also Fuki and Skitter reaching back to it. But honestly all of it is dependent upon the flip that I am sure we will needlessly drag out for the next 10 fucking days.

[UglyDuck]

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and 1 mafia that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

[UglyDuck]

Oh look, fuggoscum is piping up

OK, here's a serious offer:

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.
Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

Let's vote on that proposal.

HEAL: AP's proposal in 1449

Proposal VC:
Yay (1): AP
Nay (0)
Not Voting: Everyone else

What if i say that if you lynch me and i want you to lynch TW? Why would do suggest that (and then flip town?). People this game are honestly being a little ridiculous. We should lynch AP bc that reveals the most info. If not then you are all just like whatever. I wanna be polite and not say stupid... but stupid.
If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

[UglyDuck]

Oh look, fuggoscum is piping up

OK, here's a serious offer:

Lynch UD today. If he flips Mafia then I will shoot tw and tomorrow it's 1-1-6. That is VERY good for the town.
Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

Let's vote on that proposal.

HEAL: AP's proposal in 1449

Proposal VC:
Yay (1): AP
Nay (0)
Not Voting: Everyone else

What if i say that if you lynch me and i want you to lynch TW? Why would do suggest that (and then flip town?). People this game are honestly being a little ridiculous. We should lynch AP bc that reveals the most info. If not then you are all just like whatever. I wanna be polite and not say stupid... but stupid.
If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

And the prob AP. And then if skitter is alive.. skitter.

[UglyDuck]

O.o

Mfw scumfuggo suggests lynching the only conftown person in the game

It was obv to prove a point about how bad y’all reads are... i said “after i flip town...”

[UglyDuck]

I like how this name has caught on

it's genius tbqh

I don't get it, but I like it

[UglyDuck]

so... I am catching up here and just trying to figure some stuff out... someone grab a glue stick and help me with this cluster.

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?
2) TW claims to have a WW result on AP. They also think I am Mafia.
3) AP creates an idea about lynching me today and then they promises to follow 1 of 2 paths...
- Path 1 - I flip over as Mafia, so AP shoots TW under the assumption that it will create a 1-1-6 next day? This is asinine. Like regardless of me and my defense of myself... if anyone is actually buying into the idea that "because I flip Mafia, TW MUST be a WW" needs to re-think that. AP's job as an essentially conf!WW is not to make lives easier, it is still to give his partner the best shot possible. Just this idea, right here. Makes literally no sense at all from AP PoV. We currently sit at 2WW-2MAF-6TWN. If you lynch me and I flip MAF then we are at, 2WW-1MAF-6TWN. Then, AP says he will kill TW and that will make it 1WW-1MAF-6TWN. This is not a vaccum people, it is like real... when shit changes it changes other shit. Example, we cannot assume that WW!AP gets the shots to put us in the situation, if WW!AP also shoots WW!TW. His point would be that "he can't be WW bc why would he do it" - which is fair. But from an analytical perspective.... this promoted idea is a faulty syllogism.

- Path 2 - I flip over as Town and he kills someone of TW's choosing. Well IDK what to say other than TW if you go with this plan idea, you need to come up with a better alternative. Because what is going to happen is I am going to flip over as Town. And then he is gonna say "yeah babe who you want me to kill?". You pick someone.At first I wanted to say "one of two things would happen", but no thats bs. One of one thing will happen. He shoots the claimed Seer.


TLDR - I am gonna flip town. When that happens we go from our current 2WW-2MAF-6TWN, down to 2WW-2MAF-5TWN. Then TW gets to pick a target. Then AP will most likely shoot elsewhere and bring us to either 2WW-1MAF-5TWN or 2WW-2MAF-4TWN. Assuming TW is Seer, most likely the second option ----> for those that are slow to read you should take a second at this point and pause the tape. this creates two situations where we enter D3 with both WW left alive. ----> Thennn we will wake up D3 and (god I fucking hope) you all would lynch AP. Assuming AP is Seer, and AP kills them, that puts us at end of D3 sitting 1WW-2MAF-4TWN
Then we go to N3 and they get a kill so we are at 1WW-2MAF-3TWN or 1WW-1MAF-4TWN. That is 1/6 players left in the game after the actions that this conf!WW is setting in place like will absolutely happen, that can commit a NK. They either put themselves in a spot where they control and equal amount of power as every other individual (plus a NK) or they have to find one more Mafia to have that equality.

After this point The start of Day 4. It could go kind of any which way, it is too far out to make assumptions. But if I am not lying, this is where we will be at D4 without a doubt. And I would kind of just honestly assume that the WW gets away with it for one more day, so that means start D5 25% of the remaining field is a person that can NK. Since it is multiball that is "find the WW or lose".


So whatever. You are all either full of it or being lazy, but I am town. Lynch me tomorrow please for the love of fucking god, because if you do it today you have a 1/6 shot on D4 and a final day 1/4 shot. Lynch him today. I don't even care about the "if he flips this" convo. I assume he will flip WW. The other will obv leave me alive and kill TW and then you all think I am Mafia anyways so I would make this same argument as either Town or Mafia. The difference is pretty much nothing - TW dies tonight in both cases (don't see how people don't get that is a thing), and then either it goes me today and AP tomorrow or AP today and me tomorrow. Start D4 we in the same spot.
Nothing difference #1- on the fucking off chance that TW is fake claim... we find out with no seer outing.
Nothing difference #2- interaction time of D3 with me alive instead of AP (which I get sounds bias, but think about it, even if I am Mafia it is more advantageous for Town).
Nothing difference #3- Someone might get fucking smart and realize I am Town.


Listen to Fuggo.

[UglyDuck]

Fuggles that was 100% IIOA

can you please find mafia if you are not mafia, if you flip town I am going to be mad at you outside of the game

You gotta pick on name man I am getting confused trying to find myself. Also, while I will find the skum for you - you need to appreciate the vacuum issue. AP is simultaneously promoting two tactics that are advantageous to him in the same way but dependent upon different (or any potential) actions. That is a skum set up. Every. Fucking. Time.

OK I will do your job for you:

-It ain't the fucking cow with tits because they would never tunnel this hard as WW. and they prob would never do this bs cc fake or not fake bs as ww. Move your vote and put it somewhere useful.
- I was so fucking sure it was you and Pintu and I couldn't call either of you out because both of you would just decimate me in a 1v1. That is me being humble. Don't get used to it. Pintu because to much love, you because too many smiley faces. That is not a joke, I have a non-NAI thing about smiley faces.
- Since I am typing this up under the assumption that you are actually the Seer and AP is actually a WW - Here is where I draw logic. AP's partner to this point has interacted with him an extremely low amount.

Probably especially after the guilty call. AP's plan is 100% the way I said it was, if you don't agree I really really wanna hear the justification in which Seer!TW is left alive tomorrow by the WWs.
sooooooo... not to promote a previous stupid plan, but my pool is then narrowed to lurkers [ ] and/or people that are not directly interacting with AP [ ] - that would be specifically wot WWs. **Ill fill in the []'s later - I am tired but there is the concept.**

For Mafia it is more complicated imo. They are down a man right out the gate. Not to be expected to say the least. Normally with 3 I would just not say this bit until tomorrow and assume that there are minimum 2 of them on wagon for a WW!flip because they want that shit gone, but as it is they are kind of forced to be more careful.

I think it is one of Pine or Sando.
After that I am back on the Skitter train.

Then I need to re read more shit, get a flip or I am flipping coins.

and of course. there is this fun fact. Some one recently finally pointed something out that I could not myself given the situation. The only upside to not lynching AP is to have a chance to lynch the other WW. So either someone needs to come up with a really good call on that, or literally I think the play would be to (and I already know how this is gonna sound)... but the play is to remove "conf!Mafia" and "conf!Town" and lynch in that pool. which, as they will kill TW tonight either way... is probably the best play.

[UglyDuck]

and of course. there is this fun fact. Some one recently finally pointed something out that I could not myself given the situation. The only upside to not lynching AP is to have a chance to lynch the other WW. So either someone needs to come up with a really good call on that, or literally I think the play would be to (and I already know how this is gonna sound)... but the play is to remove "conf!Mafia" and "conf!Town" and lynch in that pool. which, as they will kill TW tonight either way... is probably the best play.

Why couldn't you point it out? All I pointed out is that lynching the non-wolf person is a bad idea right now. That's something that benefits both town and mafia, and it's not like I feel people should TR me for saying it, I'd say it as both Mafia and Town.

I feel like we're deep enough into the AP train to say this: Mafia want AP lynched today. That guarantees they're safe from todays lynch and with TW dying overnight they're safe from the overnight kill, and they're left with one WW to lynch before they're safe from NKs.

The fact that you, fuggo, are worried about how it'll look to speculate on something yet also pushing the Mafia play, says to me you're very likely Mafia here.

That said, I'm happy to look elsewhere than NM for the other WW today.

couldn't point it out bc multiple people had read me as EXACTLY mafia and I would get no credit for it.
Also.
Town and Mafia both have the same win con at this point, that is the whole fucking point. The only reason to aim for "not AP" is to find his partner. There is the upside of being wrong about the WW and hitting mafia instead, but in the end the results will be the same (with the side note of of a mafia vs a town killed).

also to make people read that are being lazy - please go tell me (or whatever stfu and just read it) but go and explain to yourself why "I am Mafia".

[UglyDuck]

I know I'm obviously like the biggest single threat to his faction buuuut I've already done my job.........and I would rather he and his partner win than mafia rn

... or town could win?

[UglyDuck]

tw do you still think cj is a viable AP partner? I"m not sure if he hops on after I pushed AP but before you outed the guilty as a partner, especially in a setup without daytalk. Also the posting on page 57 doesn't feel partner-y to me

--

So we can sort the rest.

What sort out the 1 wolf and

1 mafia

that don’t know who each other are after a guilty has been claimed? Like what... they Are gonna mess up now on a day when we “have a result”?

What is it that needs sorting out?

There are two mafia left?

I'm trying to decide if you're like trying to fake a slip with that or something

--

Lynch UD. If he flips town I shoot someone of tw's choice. That's also fair enough bc if I hit a Mafioso we are 2-1-5 tomorrow, and if I hit a townie that's 2-2-4, but I'm tomorrow's lynch anyway AND the duckling gets to deliver one more result on who is/isn't a WW.

OK I guess I'm a little bit skeptical that you'll actually go along with this plan - if you don't you'll get autolynched tomorrow, but you're getting autolynched tomorrow anyways if we go through with this plan so I'm not sure why it benefits you tonight to shoot tw's pick.

Like if town keeps up their end of the bargain and agrees to lynch you tomorrow instead of today, there's no reason why you can't just break the bargain tonight irregardless of what ud flips since you're getting lynched tomorrow anyways.

Numberwise I think it works out but I don't see why you're incentivized to actually go along with it

but tw thinks you're trustworthy in this regard and he's the one who's dead if you don't go along with it so I guess I'll just let him decide if he's comfortable with it or not.

Actually, if ud is town, we're 2w:2m:5t tonight. if you shoot a townie, we're 2w:2maf:4t tomorrow. you get lynched. at the end of day3 it's 1w:2m:4t. If a townie gets shot night3, it's 1w:2m:3t day4, which makes me kinda uncomfortable. the game is basically perpetually mylo at that point.

--

fumuki's still town

--

If you lynch me, whatever do it, just lynch TW tomorrow.

You know you're suggesting lynching the seer, right?

And the prob AP. And then if skitter is alive.. skitter.

'and then I'm

alive

' -> is this like supposed to imply that you think I ought to be nk'd at some point and that if I'm not I'm scum? In this setup that would be wolf indicative, but the notion that I'm a wolf in this game is literally laughable.

--

1) TW claims Seer, but then Not Mafia Counter Claims him? Kind of... like I guess that is question #1 I find it hard to take NM seriously so is that just like sarcasm/joke or are they actually claiming?

he's meming

wrt point 3 - your logic doesn't make sense. tw can't be shot overnight if he's a wolf. if you flip mafia, ww!ap will shoot seer!tw and the game will be 2w:1m:5t tomorrow with ap getting lynched tomorrow. day4 it would either be 1w:1m:4 town or 1w:5town depending on who got shot night 3 after ap gets lynched.

I feel like you're more worried about the wolves being alive day4 than mafia being alive day4. I'm more worried about the 1w:2m:3t situation because mafia have a fairly advantage number-wise and can herd votes the way they want to with the numbers more easily

ok I'll pick up at page 61 tomorrow

...yadda yadda... for the fiftinth billionth time... the only reason to lynch outside of AP today is to try to find the other WW.
If we lynch Mafia - Seer dies
If we lynch Town - Seer dies
If we lynch WW - Seer dies

So it is either going to tomorrow down a Seer+Town, Seer+Mafia, or Seer+WW. Obv a best, middle and TW options (get it?)... if you all actually think I am skum than you should lynch me. but there is gonna be this awk moment when your stupid after I flip. so at least, someone come up with some way where my flip can be useful. BC as much as I hate to say it, if we can do that, you should lynch me over AP. I mean as long as he dies tomorrow.

Also is TW is lying then real seer needs to keep the hell shut until 1-1-X.

[UglyDuck]

Also is TW is lying then real seer needs to keep the hell shut until 1-1-X.

I don't get why you think tw is lying

I don’t - just stating it in case i am wrong.

[UglyDuck]

I think that UD is almost for sure some flavor of scum, but never with AP, so that points to mafia.

I still think sando is a viable UD partner (yes I'm aware that you don't think it's likely, but I've already explained why I don't think that your defense is particularly strong)

If NM isn't a wolf he could be scum

Pine is my second-best bet for a wolf

I'm really not comfortable calling rubyred town here. I have no idea what flavor of scum they'd be. I suppose since I have like no townreads they can be probationary town on PoE or something.

I don't think cj is an ap partner, and he's never scum with pintu like ever, so I guess he can be town too

fumuki is still probably town.

pine and sando are never partners here

-------

Okay, AP, I have a plan. I's a good one, too.

We tell everyone that it's a full moon tonight and the moon is about to come up. Then, we watch the reactions of everyone here. If someone seems nervous and starts trying to get out, we lynch them.

What do you think?

Given that Ap is a werewolf, this is actually a really weird post in retrospect

OK, serious read.. duckling is town

So far I've pegged 3 townies with some degree of confidence: Pintu, MWNN & tw

Next..

AP and I have a mental connection at this point because this is also my town block. If I was about 20 years older, I'd guess we were twins separated at birth.

I'm also giving UglyDuck a probationary membership into my townblock based on the word of a full member of my townblock, though.

Do partners say this?

Which I appreciate that you speak these kind towny words of me - as I know I am Town, and you only know I am Town if you are skum, and I am just playing like... the skummiest skum that ever skummed. you are probably skum.

Also, the fact that "you have pegged skum" is actually in it's own skummy. For the same concepts.

I agree that Pine is a likely candidate as WW.

Also, TW if you are around before it locks - you might want to try and give opinions on who is skum based on a world where I flip town.

[UglyDuck]

Complete honesty - I need to do a thorough D1 read (which I am doing now).

This is insanely skummy tbf:

I don't have much time to go in depth about how I got to the following conclusion, so I'll just say "Welp, I'm AP"

I think Espeonage and the worst are scum together (reminder: Scum = anti-town). Espeo is getting wagoned and the only player he feels fine voting is tw who doesn't even have a real chance to get lynched?

If Espeo flips a WW I think tw is the other one and we have the power from then on (either by lynching him or leashing as someone suggested, although I'm not a fan of the latter myself).

If Espeo flips Mafia though, then not only tw is Mafia, but also one of CJV/skitter .. I think.

@Fumuki: I'm TRing you for your weird logic. I mean, I get the feeling you were looking for "which lynch was more likely to go through" between CJV and Espeo rather than which of them is more likely scum (reminder: Scum in my book = anti-town). You also wanted to "save" skitter today, yet I fifn't get the impression you were TRing her!!

Now the reason I TR this is I cannot see any anti-town player saying this in the open. It's kinda the definition for "too scummy to be scum" kind of revelation. Feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding your logic.

The one thing I would say is that it does not have a scenario where AP considers ESP as Town - which I feel like Skum would be sure to include.

May I ask how this pinged you as scummy? The only thing you pointed out is that AP failed to mention a scenario for Esp as town...

ISO-ing and just wanted to address this - yeah... actually in a post that 100% is focused on Espe, I find it odd that every scenario is introduced except one in which they are town...

[UglyDuck]

it's so cute that when I was all caps and crazy no one pushed me but now that I lurk and am passive I suddenly end up in the lynch pool.

btw, where's all the guys that wanted a UD lynch today? Now you guys settle for a AP lynch that is the unique one to give some hope of leaving TW alive without a deal, like I've been saying for 101010313 days?

AND YOU

DARE

TO CALL PEOPLE TRYING TO LYNCH CONFIRMED SCUM, SCUMMY.

and AP, if you saying that "opposite scum wouldn't support your plan" you're so wrong that it hurts. If UD is scum here like I've been thinking he is with the recent posts (that tried to get on AP's good side and push duckling) of course people would buss the hell out of him in this state, WHY THE HELL YOU GUYS DON'T GET IT?

DO YOU THINK THAT UGLYDUCK HAS ANY CHANCE TO GO TO ENDGAME AND THAT ANY BUDDY WOULD TRY TO DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN BUSSING HIM?

JUST FRICKING STOP THE SHITSHOW FOR ALL THAT'S HOLY

When UD flips scum, we are fucking looking at people locking him as scum because I don't buy that don't matter how you slice it. and in the first place, before AP push on him he was more likely wolf than scum, so how the

fuck

you guys come to the conclusion he's mafia

before

AP pushing him?

By the way I don't care anymore and am saying:

There's another guy that softed Seer. Duckling isn't as 100% as I'm making it sound although it's unlikely he's not town. I wanted to confirm that but nope nope nope nope UD or Skitter for sure is a better lynch. I even gave up midway.

The masterpiece is people putting me in the lynchpool for not going with AP plan when I made a proper plan that kept AP alive, TW alive and lynched mafia candidates two days in a row and the ones that didn't want that were AP himself, people that didn't even pay attention to what I was saying and of course the remaining scums.

Like...

seriously

?

So... "when I flip skum" you should look into people "that are locking me as skum".
Unless I am missing something, that means "when I flip Mafia" everyone should look into... everyone except Skitter, Sando, and Ruby?

So the guy that is never making it end game would like people to note - When I flip green you should look at Fuki, Skitter, Sando, Ruby (in that order).

[UglyDuck]

also, and if you think this through it is actually really not skummy... if you are town you should stop saying shit like "when UD flips skum...". you are just leaving easy outs for other factions to throw it in, and as it is multi ball they don't actually have any knowledge other than their partners IDs so prob just idk... think it and vote on it if you got to... but stop help creating a scenario for them to manipulate, because at this point if you were to "look at the people skum reading me"... it pretty much is everyone.

[UglyDuck]

Last post of the night - I do not play multi balls like ever. This one particularly was extremely vanilla. The idea I had going into it was I have an extremely underdog amount of interactions with other people on this site in comparison to all of your's with one and other, so just skum it the fuck up I will and hopefully that will divulge a good amount of info.
Started with the lurk, then the shitty list, then the interactions followed. Believe it or don't believe, you will the same after the flip.
I have no problem being lynched tomorrow, but someone that is also Town needs to come up with a way for my unanimous Skum Read to become useful. I want to get this out now before any flips happen at the beginning of tomorrow. But I think the only thing I can come up with is that I am not on the same side as NM or Skitter. So tomorrow, either lynch me (and then one of them) or lynch one of them and I guess I am praying against my own logic that I am right.


Not skum of any form this game.

[UglyDuck]

So at this point i am accepting everyone is gonna end up seeing a Town flip on me at some point - and as it sounds if it is not today, it will be tomorrow.
So i have an idea that will hopefully negate my influence during the day as well as generate info for further days.

Either we elect someone to proxy my vote and i will vote there or i guess it could be a majority “i think UD should vote x” thing.
I’m not WW so that isn’t relevant.
If i am town then it doesn’t matter bc i would vote where i thought WW anyways.
If i am mafia i would of course aim for WW anyways, but this gives town players remaining the chance of controlling my vote to vote for my eliegied partner if we miss WW.

The downside to this is that i know i am town so i am letting 2 mafia and 1 WW controll my vote in a sense, but assuming mafia still is looking for ww today it’s not that important.

Whateves - that’s my thought. I guess my request is to lynch me tomorrow so my vote can matter for one more day.

[UglyDuck]

Dunno

but you are 100% sure I am skum?

[UglyDuck]

But you're like 90% Mafia-scum.

Obvious attempt to discredit reasonable statement is obvious. Not_Mafia is probably not Mafia (at least not w/ UD)

Also I've decided that 'Fuggo' etc is a bit too aggro to use with a newcomer to the site. UglyDuck, we want to keep you around and do not intend any actual condescension. New folks are the lifeblood of the community, and just because you are transparently scum this game doesn't mean we don't like you

its ok I take no offense to fuggo, just a nick name I am fine with it

Also i am not trying to discredit anything right now. I am attempting to have a player who says nothing of value state something "black and white" so that it can be reviewed after my flip.

[UglyDuck]

does literally no one other than the cow want to comment on my idea like literally at all?

[UglyDuck]

I just used "like" and 2x "literally" and I am ashamed of myself. Also I am a little drunk. But also also - really... no one wants to mull that over?

[UglyDuck]

a) you're voting for someone on the basis that you think she's a wolf but can't describe how without grossly misrepping her

b) I think the wolf is pine or nm. I don't think that there's much interest in wagoning either right now

So why are you voting for me...?

[UglyDuck]

does literally no one other than the cow want to comment on my idea like literally at all?

Oh right, terrible idea. You're not wolf and both mafia and town are motivated to hunt for wolf right now. By abrogating your responsibility all you're doing is harming towns ability to mafia-hunt using your associations, hence CJ is correct that it's more like to come from scum.

I am also allowing town to use me as a tool. While the idea may harm the ability to skum hunt that is not all it does. Also you are being bias on the basis that i am mafia. I know i am town therefore the idea has much more meeit to me. A thought to be considered honestly in regards to upsides Vs downsides.
I am mafia, downside is less skum hunting today. Upside is my vote is controlled however you like.
I am town, downside is less skum hunting today, except no bc when i flip that’s a shit ton of info, and my vote is controlled however you like.


I understand how this idea is confusing to mafia. Weird spot to be put in when there is no good way for you to spin it.

[UglyDuck]

I am also allowing town to use me as a tool. While the idea may harm the ability to skum hunt that is not all it does. Also you are being bias on the basis that i am mafia. I know i am town therefore the idea has much more meeit to me. A thought to be considered honestly in regards to upsides Vs downsides.

No, I'd rather see how you interact with others and get info about that in the event of your flip that we can use to lynch Mafia, rather than just having an extra vote that "town" can use.

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando


off is still on the table for the rest of today if you guys ever want to pick it up.

[UglyDuck]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

[UglyDuck]

This is a blatant lie and the basis of your reasoning for why I'm a wolf.

Oh ffs, seriously? I'm talking post AP-offer, not pre. They're different parts of the game and conflating the two is just stupid, stop it.

@ud your vote on sando is blatantly survivalistic but it does make me doubt the you/sando pairing to some extent.

So, here is the thing. I came up with an idea - no one really seems to be digging it. Fine I can live with that. So the alternative is to continue playing the best I can.
At the point of time of the vote you are 100% correct that I voted for Sando based on the Ven Diagram of "people I find skummy" overlapped with "people I think could possibly be lynched over me". Survavilist and Town should essentially be considered synonyms, especially in a Vanilla game. The only thing I know for 100% sure is that I am Town - so from my POV every other person in this game is a better lynch than I am. Given the insane amount of skum reads on me, you can pretty much assume I will gladly jump on any wagon (especially one that I already had skum lean on).

[UglyDuck]

I don't think you're a wolf, for exactly the reason you're citing. I don't know who the wolf is, but I'm pretty damn sure you're not town.

I'd rather lynch *any* sort of scumread that I'm very confident on than take a gamble on someone that's 'maybe-wolf-maybe-town' because the margin of error in this game is super small and doesn't really leave much room for mistakes, and we've already blown through one of our mislynches.

OK - I agree with the first part (any skum read etc), but the second part pings me the wrong way. Like I am not arguing the margin for error is small, but to say we have "already blown through one of our mislynches..."? We have had two lynches, and on one of them we got a wolf, and then there was a mafia killed at night... when the game started did you think we would be in a BETTER spot waking up today than 1Wolf-2Mafia-5Town???

And I said all of this already:
a) You're wrong and are trying to lynch town here
b) Lynching people you know aren't wolf is beyond stupid
c) Trying to hide behind "I'd rather lynch any scum than mislynch" is also a really stupid statement, given you're saying you'd rather lynch in a pool that has less chance of producing "scum" since by your own words, it doesn't include 1/3rd of the scumpool. 3/8 or 37.5% of the pool are scum, you want to reduce that to 2/8 or 25% chance that any given lynch target is scum...can we pretty please play some poker...for money...lots of money? Because you're a terrible gambler.
d) The statement is just also extremely lazy and designed to appeal to town whilst also abrogating your responsibility.

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things. However, the differences between the two are funnily actually kind of perfectly represented here. If this was gambling (or a math equasion - like let's say blackjack), then yeah... no doubt removing 1/3 of the skum pool and randomly choosing between the remaining players is bad. However, you also fucked up your math. If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

More importantly I would like to point out that this mathematical error is far easier to mess up from the perspective of skum. Specifically skum speaking the the concept of removing someone from play they know to be town.

More - more importantly, while those number look potentially appealing on one end, it doesn't matter. If we are lynching for Any!Skum then no one should be removed because there are (no matter how sure you think you are) only 3 remaining players in the game that know who any skum are, and one of those players only knows their own identity, and the other two don't know the last's.

TLD;R - Removing skum from lynchpool is a bad idea bc we don't know who skum is.

Now as it so happens this game is less like BlackJack, and more like Poker - meaning there are outside influences you have to consider.
So to say lynching within 3/8 is preferable to lynching within 5/8 could potentially be true. However, this game is based on things like reads and interactions and choice.. not just math. Still irrelevant though, due to the fact that, regardless of alignment, the player on the chopping block would not vote for themselves. So the field is actually a house of 7, not of 8 (from any given individuals interpretation).

Another skummy math error btw.

All of that up there I just typed out was to point out that while math is an important instrument, as it is in poker, it is not the sole device to be relied upon. And I also believe that in this instance, that this is a freeking skumslip.

Summary - The game plan should assuredly be to isolate the skummiest players and lynch within that pool. Any other approach is, forgive me, but just incorrect. All the talk about numbers and math and chance is bullshit because at the end of the day you (or anyone) alone are not making the decision - the decision is made by the majority of remaining players in the game and their thoughts on the matter... And that is coming from the guy that is essentially being universally skum-read at this point.

[UglyDuck]

im interacting with you calling out a player that doesn't interact a lot on this point.

VOTE: vote: sando

I mean that's one way to avoid voting your partner, sure.

I'm slow, who is my partner?

Jesus H Christ, this had really better be Mafia trying to make false associations with me, if you're town you're absolutely terrible here.

No matter what your or my alignment is, we both 100% know we're not partners with each other, so voting me is, to my eyes at least, a very easy way for you to avoid voting your partner and giving associations. Given I specifically called your plan stupid because I want to force you to associate with a potential partner and you respond by just vote-parking on me just screams to me that you're desperate to avoid interacting today. To me, this looks like you've given up on trying to survive as Mafia and you're just trying to avoid getting your partner killed.

I want to hunt for the wolf, and in that hunt I'm well aware that Mafia also could get hit and that they want to help hunt the wolf. I want to see people hunt because wolf/town/mafia have different motives here and by getting them to hunt we can potentially see some of those motives coming through. You're doing everything in your power to avoid actually hunting, that's TERRIBLE town play, or just plain old Mafia play.

Yeah that didn't answer my question. I get that you and me "can't be partners" but then... there are like a lot of other people. I could of voted for any of them. Why is voting for you defending them? Why are you being so defensive actually?

[UglyDuck]

First off, before anything else - Poker player and gambler are two very different things.

No they're not, you're getting confused, all poker players are gamblers, not all gamblers are poker players. That's different from "very different things".

If you remove the 1/3 skum pool it doesn't drop to 25% because it drops to 2/7 not 2/8 as you have to remove both ends. So, not that it matters, but the odds are actually 28.6%. You and me should play poker some time - for money... lots of money

God yes please. I'll argue the point with skitter about using 7 vs 8, but your point is just stupid. Let's use NM since we're not sure on his alignment and you as an example:

UD - we don't believe you're a Wolf, so there's a 2/8 (or 2/7 if you want me to remove myself as per skitters point, but 8 gives nicer numbers so ner ner) chance that they're scum = 25%
NM - Could be wolf or Mafia, so there's a 3/8 (37.5%) chance they're scum. Technically there's a slightly higher chance he's Wolf since we're giving non-wolf cred to certain people, but that just makes the numbers more stark. The calc should actually be 1/7 chance of being Wolf plus 2/8 chance of being Mafia, giving him ~3.15/8 (~39.3%) chance of being scum. That goes up even further if you want to give me non-wolf cred.

The only reason to change the denominator is due to knowing you yourself are town, you change the numerator to account for removing options for people, and you change both if you want to calculate them separately.

The calc is very simple, it's (number of scumslots you could be) / (number of people who could be that scumslot). At least skitter is arguing about reads throwing that out and understands the intricacies of giving yourself town-guarantee.

My point is obviously that you did not remove specifically yourself.

[UglyDuck]

Sure sounds legit, thanks for the self-meta

#sarcasm

If you can't dredge up the intellect to actually engage on why it was the correct call then I guess it's pointless to engage.

FTR on me:

Skitter

understands what I'm on about and disagrees, also plenty for people to read

UD

is sheeping/clueless on what I've been saying, I personally think genuinely

Pine

is choosing to ignore the actual motivation and reasoning behind what happened yesterday, fairly opportunistically I'd say

Just to be clear I very openly stated that I was jumping right on you for exactly the reason that you getting lynched instead of me is better. The fact I have a skum lean on you just makes it gravy. Only mentioning it because the reason I outright stated it was so you could use me sheeping you as a defense... but yeah you can try anyways.

[UglyDuck]

I can't decide if WW would shoot me or not tonight so just in case it happens...

That happened way the hell too fast. Like, this is assuming that Sando does flip over as Town here - but assuming yes, I am going with at least 2 Skum on wagon.

I stated it right out the gate, given my universal skum read by pretty much everyone, I was going with pretty much any wagon. THAT BEING SAID - Sando was acting as towny as towny towns. Skitter staying on is one thing because she was the one aruging the Sando case, but Pine CJ, NM.... there is skum there.


Yo wolf - shoot one of those guys tonight. its good for you too still I think to kill mafia.

[UglyDuck]

I stated it right out the gate, given my universal skum read by pretty much everyone, I was going with pretty much any wagon. THAT BEING SAID - Sando was acting as towny as towny towns.

You voted and lynched towny-town-town out of self preservation?

Thanks NM, you have my eternal gratitude for getting me out of this hellhole. You too skitter, it was terrible play, but holy shit I'm glad I don't have to deal with this anymore.

I mean if it were me vs you I would lynch you no matter how towny I thought you were.
In this instance, I probably would of pull out. When I went to bed after my last post it was Me Skitter and Pine on you, 3 hours later (let alone after I woke up and checked the game) you were lynched.

Do you think Skitter is Skum?

[UglyDuck]

Do you think Skitter is Skum?

If scum, by far and away the best scum in this game. Town have fucked this up enough to this point that the only way out is just hoping they haven't been outplayed and they can't second guess themselves. The only chance of a town win is to trust that skitter is town and hope she's not that good as scum. There's just too many "scumfucks" as she so eloquently puts it for you to do anything but. You've just lynched "towny-town-town" who said catagorically that you wouldn't be todays lynch...if you're town, you're not good enough to win this. Pine is either scum or has no concept of reality. CJ will not in any way contribute as either scum or town in any useful manner. And then you've got NM who is intent on lynching you and will lolhammer people he reads as town.

After all that...you lynched someone today within 100 posts and allowed the only two people either not lynched or not on the wagon to post a combined once...

You dun fucked up, sure skitter could be scum, she's done some conflicting things and she's certainly contributed to getting a townie lynched today within 100 posts...you're all worse. You had today to weigh in on the skitter discussion, instead you decided to lynch me because you were petrified of being lynched...then you told everyone that.

Kay sorry i asked

[UglyDuck]

Prod the mod?

[UglyDuck]

Maybe skitter today

why the change of heart?

[UglyDuck]

also skitter is probably skum, but most likely mafia.

[UglyDuck]

This is the point where I want to remind everyone that the dancing cow will prob auto hammer anything, so both players are "L-1" rn.

[UglyDuck]

p r o d g e

VOTE: skitter

This pretty much screams to me that skitter isn't mafia...

BS - at that point, Mafia would try to create as much dissonance as possible.

[UglyDuck]

So here’s my hot take based on a skin of D1 and a thorough read of D2/D3:

1) The “these people aren’t wolves because they know the Seer’s meta” assertions are bullshit. They make the assumption that certain people would act in exact ways with their choice of NK. the worst was one out of nine targets for the wolves N1, and we can’t clear people based on their inability to zone in on the Seer. Frankly, delving into pint’s ISO, I’d say the motivation for the kill is obvious regardless of AP’s partner: pint seemed to have a scumlean on AP and was a strong poster.

2) UD is town. Every post he’s made in the past three game days has been extremely genuine and I don’t see him rounding out either of the remaining scumteams. He’s obviously not a wolf (which most people seem to agree with at this point) due to interactions with AP on D2; there’s so little synergy between their posting that I’d be floored if UD’s a wolf. I feel he’s town because his posting doesn’t come across as being paired with anyone, and hasn’t the entire game. He’s thinking entirely about how his slot can benefit town. As scum with RR I feel like his D2/D3 posts would be much less self-centered and focused more on letting RR carry their team to victory, considering the enormous amount of heat on UD at that point. If anything he’s been posting like a wolf would since then, except he’s not because his interactions with AP make zero sense for him to be a wolf.

I intended to say more in this post but I have to go. For now:
VOTE: skitter

I’m leaning towards skitter as the wolf. I don’t think he’s Mafia - RR’s push on skitter the entire time he was alive looked like a genuine push on a suspected wolf as opposed to a bus - but I think he makes a lot of sense as AP’s partner. I’ll go into detail on it later.

You're smart - Would love a read list when you have the time - your predecessor really did not give that much.

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

Garbage vote

Yep why do you think that?
Btw you are next.

[UglyDuck]

VOTE: Skitter

At this point the information from the flip is almost as important as the chance she is WW

a) why do you think I'm the wolf?

b) what sort of information, pray tell, do you think you'll be gaining from my flip?

Went back to answer a) and it all just falls apart when i get to the beginning of d2. I had a conspiracy theory similar to the one Klick mentioned but there is just no freakin way. You tunnel the shit out of AP and TW gives you like 100 chances to back down without it looking bad...

I still just have this feeling about you (I’m sorry i can’t seem to make it go away), but like complete 180 no shot you are WW.

May still have to lynch you tomorrow tho if we find ww today

UNVOTE: Skitter

[UglyDuck]

Got the prod.

I’m good with either of those lynches

[UglyDuck]

why not ceejay?

[UglyDuck]

So I read back on some things I have been meaning to get to - and in the end they don't matter. IDK how in the hell you all get reads off of NM based on play style, but I don't think I am going to be able to. So I would rather lynch him today and go for Pine (or whoever else might seem valid) tomorrow. But I will also totally vote for Pine.

VOTE: NotMafia

[UglyDuck]

i guess i'm just hesitant because if nm doesn't flip wolf i think i'm the nk here most of the time and i'm really not confident you guys will lynch pine without me

If we lynch pine today will you agree to lynch NM tomorrow if you are alive?

[UglyDuck]

wait that was a CJ hammer yes?

[UglyDuck]

so....

[UglyDuck]

pine if you're actually town here ....

and yeah if he was maf than the game is over and i guess the wolfteam of ap/cj wins

yup
the skitter fanclub are literally crying into our tea in the dead thread. =_=

... asked for the dead thread like 10 times....

[UglyDuck]

ok just read through and evidently AA9 has some shit going so I want to take back the comment about the dead thread (sorry AA9).

Also thank you for the game and GG to all!

[UglyDuck]

Lols I thought Pine was last maf xD

Sorry for forcing you into it Skitter

That's why I was hoping the lynch goes through bc I doubted you would shoot the real Mafioso.

Great show though, CJV. GG everyone.

Reason I got UD killed is I was having doubts that he really was the last maf (I earlier thought UD is maf). So when he flipped town I thought I was screwed

Ah! when I woke up (or didn't) today I was like 95% you and 5% some unreasonable god like play from WW!Skitter.

Also, Skitter - a free and earned compliment - you are pretty much the most outstanding player I have played with on MS so far. Very good game.