I remember someone mentioning that one game there was a scum team that picked all the same number to throw people off.
Orfhz falls into the group that all picked 4. I guess they could be scum together trying to distance, but I doubt it, better for them to just get a PR.
I've only made one good post, and don't you dare accuse me of doing it again.
necessarily logical. By and large, they are a logical people... as a cultural standard. But innately and naturally, they are highly emotional beings. It just so happens that most impose logic upon themselves. (Read up on your Vulcan history, particularly the figures of Surak and T'Pau.) Some Vulcans, Sybok for instance, eschew the Vulcans' adherence to logic and rationality and fully embrace their emotional natures. So, no tautology here.
Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.
1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.
I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.
But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?
But I know I'm town, so probability says... VOTE: BuJaber
In post 12, BuJaber wrote:
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
let's not
Is this how you normally are?
Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.
Uh if I'm understanding this correctly, you scumread ofrhz because he dismissed you and belittled you?
Yes
My assumption is backed by reasoning.
If he/she is town who thinks my reasoning is flawed he/she could have argued his point of view.
He/she did not and simply disagreed.
Pedit - what?
No two people with the same number can be scum together =/= no two people with the same number can be town together.
We could be both town or you could be scum. You aren't automatically scum just because I'm not scum. Because whether you are scum or town you did not coordinate with me about the number.
If you like probabilities so much you should be agreeing with me more than anyone else. Because you know for a fact that we did not coordinate so if you are town you'd know that at least for the number 6 my assumption is correct.
The same applies to ausuka and brass. If either of them are town they know that at least for their number my assumption is correct.
Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.
1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.
I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.
But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?
But I know I'm town, so probability says... VOTE: BuJaber
This post is pinging me.
It's like you were just looking for an excuse to jump onto the BuJaber wagon.
I don't really understand how you got to the conclusion that he's scum just from your post.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.
1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.
I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.
But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?
But I know I'm town, so probability says... VOTE: BuJaber
This post is pinging me.
It's like you were just looking for an excuse to jump onto the BuJaber wagon.
I don't really understand how you got to the conclusion that he's scum just from your post.
In post 12, BuJaber wrote:
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.
let's not
Is this how you normally are?
Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.
Uh if I'm understanding this correctly, you scumread ofrhz because he dismissed you and belittled you?
Yes
My assumption is backed by reasoning.
If he/she is town who thinks my reasoning is flawed he/she could have argued his point of view.
He/she did not and simply disagreed.
Pedit - what?
No two people with the same number can be scum together =/= no two people with the same number can be town together.
We could be both town or you could be scum. You aren't automatically scum just because I'm not scum. Because whether you are scum or town you did not coordinate with me about the number.
If you like probabilities so much you should be agreeing with me more than anyone else. Because you know for a fact that we did not coordinate so if you are town you'd know that at least for the number 6 my assumption is correct.
The same applies to ausuka and brass. If either of them are town they know that at least for their number my assumption is correct.
Yeh, but if I understand, your going assumption is that scum chooses three different numbers? This makes it more likely for them to end up choosing the same number as a townie, since scum have coordinated to choose different numbers.
Though if they were smart enough to choose the same numbers for WIFOM fun then I might go sit in a corner after this game
Uh no. Since scum would already know the numbers that their partners picked, it would be less likely that they got the same number as someone.
Though if were considering numbers from one to infinity, it wouldn't matter and it would be negligible.
So yeah, I'm of the opinion that analyzing draft picks of numbers and trying to figure out if scum would pick same numbers or different ones would be exhausting and not very helpful.
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
Going by the pure records of this game, the setup is rather scum sided no matter what, I think the last 3 times the game was run, the scum team won.
The only 3 who could be a scum team picking all the same number are Sando, ofrhz, and ceejay.
Sando has shown that he has looked into previous games, so he would have seen the last game where we (yes, I was scum team the beginning of that game, then replaced out) all picked different numbers with the one with the long name that I don't remember took an extremely high number and made a very good point about wanting to get Roleblocker. And, the roleblocker is a great scum role, by the way.
What I'm saying is, I doubt that Sando, who has at least looked into the history of this game would go along with that gambit even though the gambit was recently referenced on forums.
Currently, BuJaber's head is almost in the right spot, and I think he came to the correct conclusion going the wrong way, if that makes sense. You need to look at the individual people and decide whether they are likely to enact a plan where they pick the same numbers.
For the double ups, I know for a fact that the 3s are not on the same team for obvious reasons, but I encourage you all to evaluate whether I would go along with a plan like that and whether Ausuka would suggest it or vice versa. I'll give you a head start, I'd probably go along with a plan like that if I were on the scum team because I don't like to really "participate" as scum.
Enigma, I know nothing about, but BuJaber's stark insistence that they all chose different numbers actually, in my opinion, opens up a possibility that he could be on a scum team that suggested that. I need more time to read BuJaber, but, I do want to note that later on, if he ends up being scum, I would not count out Enigma or two of Ceejay/Sando/ofrhz being scum partners with him. (Again, you guys can add myself and Ausuka to the list to analyze)
Leaving me with 2 of the 3 who picked 4. I could see Sando going half in after reading the previous games, and matching with one partner and not the other. The other two I know I have played with but will need to refresh my recollection of what they are like.
Anyway, This is my wall. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
I've only made one good post, and don't you dare accuse me of doing it again.
In post 46, ceejayvinoya wrote:Uh no. Since scum would already know the numbers that their partners picked, it would be less likely that they got the same number as someone.
Though if were considering numbers from one to infinity, it wouldn't matter and it would be negligible.
So yeah, I'm of the opinion that analyzing draft picks of numbers and trying to figure out if scum would pick same numbers or different ones would be exhausting and not very helpful.
Too late, I've already exhausted myself.
I've only made one good post, and don't you dare accuse me of doing it again.
In post 44, BuJaber wrote:I wish you weren't the same person who voted for enigma in RVS.
I'm leaning town for you but my paranoia says you're distancing.
Dat looks like a town CJ over thar.
Anyone got a link to that PYP where scum all picked the same number?
As one of the 3, I'm well aware scum did not pick all the same number in this game. Unless there's another PYP I'm missing, scum have only done the "2 of us pick the same and 1 different" gambit once before.
3 appears to be the optimal number for scum to pick, town pick 1,2 and 4 at a significantly higher rate than average, even amongst the top 7-8. 4 is actually the most town-picked number (I wish I'd done this work before draft), followed by 1, then 2. In the 132 townies in the completed wiki games, town chose (12 games):
1: 20
2: 16
3: 11
4: 25
5: 11
6: 10
7: 11
1 is picked by ~15% of townies and ~19.5% of scum, so by itself it's not a good indicator.
Given the likelihood of picking against a townie appears equal in 3/6/7, 3 seems optimal. Funnily enough 3 and 6 have duplicates on them.
Also funnily enough, 42 has only ever been picked once before, by scum
Having said all that, I'm happy to put the numbers out there for peoples knowledge, but I agree with others, speculation on draft picks at this stage is not going to help us short term. Keep it in mind for later days, but we could easily wifom ourselves to death here.
