World Cup 2018

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Post Post #3  (isolation #0)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:08 am

Don't buy on Messi and Friends. They are not a good team right now, and frankly they're probably the "good" team most likely to flame out in the group stage.

While it sucks not to be there, the US would have been crap this year thanks to the lost generation. At least now we get a bit of a head start playing our kids in friendlies for 2022. US in 2022 has an insane ceiling rn that isn't on the back of a couple untested pieces. It's on the back of a few kids who at 18/19 are already having and impact + a bunch of promising kids.

Peru at 200-1 is an insane buy. Uruguay is also probably a good buy at w/e price they are at (soft group + Portugal R16 gives them an ez path to quarterfinals, and they are a super fucking legit team that people love to overlook)

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Post Post #4  (isolation #1)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:11 am

I actually can't stress enough how much Argentina as the 5th best team in this WC is a joke take.

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Post Post #5  (isolation #2)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:13 am

France is also at a decent price because they have a relatively soft group, then they're R16 is against the team that gets out of the group of life, so their first real test will be vs Uruguay unless something weird happens or Ronaldo carries Portugal very hard vs Uruguay

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Post Post #7  (isolation #3)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:18 am

After getting third in their group and Greeceing their way through most of the knockout stage.

They got lucky that they drew relatively soft teams in the third and fourth pools of their group, but I would put them at only a 60-70% chance of getting out. Iran or Morocco could show up for a few games and edge them out on tiebreaks in a 9-4-4-0 group

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Post Post #9  (isolation #4)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:25 am

Holy shit Uruguay is at 33-1 buy so hard on that

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Post Post #10  (isolation #5)  » Tue May 29, 2018 9:26 am

Sweden at 200-1 is also a buy

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Post Post #14  (isolation #6)  » Tue May 29, 2018 10:56 am

In post 12, Faraday wrote:
In post 10, BROseidon wrote:Sweden at 200-1 is also a buy

????


Sweden is a good dark-horse buy

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Post Post #18  (isolation #7)  » Tue May 29, 2018 11:06 am

I guess that's fair. Even with the talent they have, they have to hit a number of upsets

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Post Post #21  (isolation #8)  » Tue May 29, 2018 11:22 am

In post 19, Creature wrote:
Spoiler: Group A
Image

Spoiler: Group B
Image

Spoiler: Group C
Image

Spoiler: Group D
Image

Spoiler: Group E
Image

Spoiler: Group F
Image

Spoiler: Group G
Image

Spoiler: Group H
Image


These are some hot takes

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Post Post #28  (isolation #9)  » Thu May 31, 2018 9:17 am

In post 27, Majiffy wrote:
In post 25, Nexus wrote:
In post 23, Espeonage wrote:Can we have a scummer tipping comp?


What's that?

That's where scummers try to tip me and Kuribo over


Does tackling count?

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Post Post #29  (isolation #10)  » Thu May 31, 2018 9:18 am

In post 26, Nexus wrote:I've set up a prediction league but I need email addresses. Unless someone can find me a better site for it.


Do we just pm u?

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Post Post #38  (isolation #11)  » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:51 am

Peru is very good.

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Post Post #39  (isolation #12)  » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:51 am

Like I would say they're the 4th best SA team if you take Messi out of Argentina.

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Post Post #87  (isolation #13)  » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:10 pm

In post 68, zoraster wrote:I wonder how they'll handle the altitude of Mexico city and to a lesser extent Denver. It's not a problem really if it's consistent through the group, but given Mexico has 3 host cities and only 10 matches, it's likely Mexico city only gets 1 round of a group, which makes that game pretty different than the other games in Houston or whatever.


tbf Houston and Orlando will also be garbage to play in for different reasons. Teams are going to be playing in 100% humidity and dying.

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Post Post #88  (isolation #14)  » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:12 pm

In post 83, Bins wrote:WAIT IS CANADA GETTING A TEAM


Atiba Hutchinson cries.

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Post Post #89  (isolation #15)  » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:49 am

Uruguay individually looked really good, but their play in the final third was very lacking in creativity until the end of the game (and they won on a set piece, which isn't that weird with how much more athletic/tall their CB pairing was that Egypt)

They'll coast out of this group in first, but they need to get their shit together for the knockout round

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Post Post #94  (isolation #16)  » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:48 pm

In post 92, Faraday wrote:
In post 89, BROseidon wrote:Uruguay individually looked really good, but their play in the final third was very lacking in creativity until the end of the game (and they won on a set piece, which isn't that weird with how much more athletic/tall their CB pairing was that Egypt)

They'll coast out of this group in first, but they need to get their shit together for the knockout round

egypt defended pretty well and made themselves hard to break down, tbf.

but yeah, i don't really know if uruguay played well individually either? like suarez def should have scored/didn't look really good and i thought the uruguay midfield had terrible final ball even when they did get decent positions.

they'll probably play better against teams not designed to prevent them from playing, though.


Suarez was bad. Cavani and the CB pairing were insane. Midfield was fine, but lacking in creative ideas.

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Post Post #116  (isolation #17)  » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:07 pm

Nah England always finds a way to disappoint

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Post Post #120  (isolation #18)  » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:43 pm

Uruguay vs Russia is interesting in the sense that it will let us know how for real both teams are

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Post Post #128  (isolation #19)  » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:57 pm

Okay so who is excited for Godin and Gimenez to destroy CR7?

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Post Post #137  (isolation #20)  » Wed Jun 27, 2018 5:56 pm

Yeah Germany played with 0 fucking urgency and paid the price

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Post Post #140  (isolation #21)  » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:08 pm

Oh joy Belgium/Uruguay and Croatia/Somebody semi-finals here we come

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Post Post #144  (isolation #22)  » Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:54 pm

In post 141, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 140, BROseidon wrote:Oh joy Belgium/Uruguay and Croatia/Somebody semi-finals here we come
for the record I think this is entirely wrong.


Have you been watching the same games?

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Post Post #146  (isolation #23)  » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:14 pm

Uruguay conceded 1 shot on goal for the entire group stage. Doesn't matter who your opposition is, that level of defense is beyond god-tier. Belgium and Croatia have actually looked good and dynamic while they've played.

It's not even that other teams have played hard teams. Spain had an easy as fuck group (Portugal is bad don't @ me) and squeaked out with 5 points. Argentina has been ass for 3 years, and anyone who thought they were going to win their group hasn't been watching them at all. Brazil have looked meh, barely beating fucking Costa Rica with two very late goals. France barely got by fucking Australia and lost possession vs Peru (tbh they could have easily drawn or lost that game, and Peru is a team that Uruguay is a couple steps above). Germany? lol.

You can't just let brand names coast on being brand names (and let's be real by individual talent Belgium is tier 1 right now and Uruguay and Croatia are tier 1.5 anyways, so it's not that big of a leap that these teams are the best because they actually have cogent gameplans and identities).

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Post Post #147  (isolation #24)  » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:15 pm

Also, yes, Uruguay vs. Egypt could have been 0-0, but Uruguay got that result with a much more dominant defensive performance than any of the other weak results. Uruguay plays "garbage" football as a style.

What Godin and Gimenez are about to do to CR7 tomorrow is going to be very NSFW. They will fucking destroy him, and he has no support from the rest of his team to help out.

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Post Post #150  (isolation #25)  » Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:02 am

Lol both teams forgot how to defend

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Post Post #152  (isolation #26)  » Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:49 pm

Man Uruguay is fun to watch

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Post Post #153  (isolation #27)  » Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:58 pm

Oh look that thing we all expected to happen happened

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Post Post #156  (isolation #28)  » Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:40 pm

They really didnt

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Post Post #159  (isolation #29)  » Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:40 pm

lolno

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Post Post #169  (isolation #30)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:06 am

honestly the only match in the QFs I'm not looking forward to is Croatia vs Russia. Croatia is just a much better team

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Post Post #170  (isolation #31)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:06 am

Anyways the Uruguay vs Belgium SF is the real final IMO.

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Post Post #172  (isolation #32)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:53 am

IMO France over Uruguay and Brazil over Belgium are both very hot takes

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Post Post #176  (isolation #33)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:09 am

In post 173, randomidget wrote:france vs uruguay could be a complete goalfest
brazil belgium im expecting to be a bit disappointing


You clearly have not watched Uruguay play.

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Post Post #177  (isolation #34)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:10 am

In post 175, Aristophanes wrote:But what if Russia beats Croatia?

Also France is going all the way so Uruguay had better start packing!


No and no.

Mboopi exposed a very bad Argentine defense. Uruguay are the best defense at the WC. It's a completely different level

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Post Post #180  (isolation #35)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:42 pm

My thing is like what does France do when Godin and Gimenez beat the shit out of Mboopi?

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Post Post #181  (isolation #36)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:43 pm

Fwiw I think the only teams with meaningful responses to that question are Belgium, Brazil, and maaaaaaaaaaaybe Croatia

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Post Post #182  (isolation #37)  » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:45 pm

The biggest argument for France is actually Griezmann understanding Uruguay super well

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Post Post #189  (isolation #38)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:20 am

In post 183, Faraday wrote:
In post 180, BROseidon wrote:My thing is like what does France do when Godin and Gimenez beat the shit out of Mboopi?

Giroud will probably be trying to take the brunt of this i think (and is well capable of doing so). It should be interesting tho as France are one of the few teams that have quite a few options to switch it up, in the event of players playing poorly. The argentinian paper defense definitely made them look good, though.

I think it'll be an interesting game. Hope Cavani is fit, as he was so great last game.


I don't think any of the French front 3 are good enough individually to take on the Uruguayan back 4 (nobody is), and France doesn't have the service from the midfield for some reason.

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Post Post #191  (isolation #39)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:12 am

Uruguay was the first NT I managed in FM.

Also calling Uruguay anything but a top 2 defense with Brazil is lol

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Post Post #192  (isolation #40)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:13 am

Laxalt, Caceres, and especially Gimenez are all better than "good"

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Post Post #197  (isolation #41)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:56 am

Faraday has a good response. Only thing I will add is that it helps that Godin and Gimenez play together at the club level. Cohesion between centerbacks is very important, and Uruguay very much has that.

The goal they conceded to Portugal was Gimenez being mortal on a set piece. Obviously it's better not to concede that, but fact is that they held Ronaldo to 0 goals and were mostly pretty confident in it (last 15 minutes got a bit scary, IMO)

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Post Post #202  (isolation #42)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:05 am

South America becoming the continent of shithouse football was an interesting plot twist

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Post Post #204  (isolation #43)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:22 am

I mean it's almost as if positioning, communication, and organization matter more than individual technical ability when it comes to defense

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Post Post #206  (isolation #44)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:50 am

For some reason Varane is being credited with the goal lol

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Post Post #210  (isolation #45)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:27 am

Without that Lloris save, it's a very different game. That + the howler on the Griezmann shot turned the game from 1-1 to 2-0

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Post Post #211  (isolation #46)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:28 am

That loss was absolutely not on Uruguay's defense. You normally don't lose 2-0 when you hold the other team to 2 shots on goal

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Post Post #214  (isolation #47)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:33 pm

Honestly I would not be surprised if Godin were a better keeper than Muslera

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Post Post #216  (isolation #48)  » Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:56 pm

I mean basically yeah

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Post Post #220  (isolation #49)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:33 am

If Spain didn't play dated soccer they could have as well.

Anyways Russia over Croatia would be the biggest potential upset the QF could produce (including yesterday's games). Croatia has looked consistently solid (except vs Denmark, where Schmeichel carried hard), and Russia lost to the only good team they've played so far.

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Post Post #221  (isolation #50)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:33 am

Sweden, on the other hand, is about to destroy some memes :)

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Post Post #224  (isolation #51)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:32 am

In post 222, Panzerjager wrote:Spain not a good team? Lol.


Drew Portugal drew Morocco drew Russia

Uh yeah Spain 2018 was not a good team

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Post Post #226  (isolation #52)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:07 am

I mean yes I said team not players

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Post Post #227  (isolation #53)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:07 am

90% of Spain's problem was nobody telling them to pass more directly

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Post Post #237  (isolation #54)  » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:27 pm

Somebody counts

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Post Post #248  (isolation #55)  » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:44 am

lol Uruguay vs France game was .7-.4 xG. France got two goals on a 0.4 xG

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Post Post #249  (isolation #56)  » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:44 am

They're gonna have to up their production to beat Belgium because no way do they repeat that level of efficiency

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Post Post #251  (isolation #57)  » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:57 am

Winner of Belgium/France is probably the favorite for the final. France started out a bit slow but have been looking stronger each game, and Belgium have just been the best team of the tournament. Croatia started strong but has faded a bit their past 2 games, and England just... hasn't looked spectacular in their run other than destroying Panama

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Post Post #252  (isolation #58)  » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:59 am

France is also defensively the strongest team left (since Uruguay and Brazil were the only two stronger defensive teams lol), and good defenses always have high potential to bullshit their ways to tournament wins

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Post Post #253  (isolation #59)  » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:59 am

IMO it's Belgium > France > Croatia > England rn

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Post Post #258  (isolation #60)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:18 am

lol France's bench is worth more than the entire Uruguayan team according to transfermarkt.

Also Argentina and Switzerland had starting 11s worth less than their benches.

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Post Post #259  (isolation #61)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:19 am

I think the relative success of Belgium, Croatia, Russia, Uruguay, etc show how much having good tactics and chemistry matters over having better players

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Post Post #264  (isolation #62)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:03 pm

Portugal actually had the higher xG lol. Cavani scoring 2 on an xG of just under 1 was the difference maker

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Post Post #265  (isolation #63)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:06 pm

And by just under 1 that was for all of Uruguay.

The xG of his two that he scored combined for about 0.5

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Post Post #266  (isolation #64)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:08 pm

That said Portugal always had a talent problem, and they were tactically average. The saving grace for that team was Ronaldo's ability to win games that shouldn't be won

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Post Post #268  (isolation #65)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:50 pm

Jesus Griezmann took his love of Uruguay so far as to make the French play like them

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Post Post #271  (isolation #66)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:11 pm

God I can't root for Croatia because geopolitics but I also hate the idea of France or England winning

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Post Post #272  (isolation #67)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:12 pm

Uruguay, Belgium, and Sweden all would have been such great winners, too

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Post Post #275  (isolation #68)  » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:58 pm

In post 273, Not_Mafia wrote:
In post 271, BROseidon wrote:I also hate the idea of France or England winning


Womp womp


Thanks Lewandowski

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Post Post #295  (isolation #69)  » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:02 pm

In post 292, Not_Mafia wrote:2022 it's coming home


Nah US is taking it in 2022 sorry

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Post Post #304  (isolation #70)  » Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:38 pm

In post 302, Nexus wrote:
In post 0, Nexus wrote:Current odds have Brazil and Germany at 5/1, Spain at 13/2, France at 15/2 and Argentina at 10/1. I would think France are at a good price there, but who knows.


WOO


U were right.

What's scary is that this was the 2nd youngest team at the tournament. They could easily break the winner's curse

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Post Post #306  (isolation #71)  » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:55 pm

Nah USA 2022

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Post Post #313  (isolation #72)  » Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:10 pm

In post 309, Glork wrote:
In post 302, Nexus wrote:
In post 0, Nexus wrote:Current odds have Brazil and Germany at 5/1, Spain at 13/2, France at 15/2 and Argentina at 10/1. I would think France are at a good price there, but who knows.


WOO

Yeah but what about every other armchair analyst’s hot takes and dark horses?

(Srsly, though, good call. France was overlooked by many because of their youth but they clearly got the job done at every stage.)


All my darkhorse picks were beaten by France >.>

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Post Post #316  (isolation #73)  » Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:07 pm

Cries in Arjen Robben


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