Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #2200 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:32 am

Post by Nauci »

Comments + in depth responses to BV's questions:

Spoiler: Oh christ did I really just spend all of that time responding to a single page (77)
In post 1928, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Key
In post 1929, Shoshin wrote:I really don't like the worst's response to BV.
Image

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In post 1902, Momrangal wrote:Yesterday, bernie hammered gamma and i thought i saw the reason for it being something about me being flash lynched while V/LA yesterday.

Today, knowing im V/LA he makes a push for it before i even come back from said V/LA
In post 1906, Momrangal wrote:
In post 1739, Bernie Sanders wrote:though towards the end, it was partially a matter that he was claimed VT and I was slightly worried of an certain outside risk of deadline flash wagon momrangal VLA even if I scumread her more).
Yeah here.

I dont understand why he would be worried if he scum read me.

Further more, this proves he's aware of my V/La and the fact that he pushed be knowing i couldnt respond.

Also, if he was worried of the flash wagon, why wouldnt he be still worried of it considering i was still V/LA
Well we were no longer 24 hours from deadline, so...
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In post 1910, Irrelephant11 wrote: Not_Mafia who did you try to shoot last night?
Was this a joke about scumreading Not Mafia or did I miss something

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In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 666, Nauci wrote:My rule of thumb that I absolutely don't vouch for is that, when heavily pressured, scum!tw becomes exponentially more dodgy/bullshitter, and slightly more serious as town. (based on one game w/ him and skimming a couple of others)
Why reveal this before you have a chance to see what he's like under pressure? Even if he's not pressured immediately, there's a chance he would be at some point. Edit: Just read where you call it a placebo effect. Why can't he act serious if he's scum and gets pressured if he knows that's what you're expecting?
Like I said in that post though: being aware of placebo affect doesn't affect placebo affect. I don't think that he could change his style enough even if I called it out. But I mostly post because I tend to be ultra transparent with my reaction/catch up posts and don't consider this kind of game theory.
In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 671, Nauci wrote:, I post this kind of crap when I'm unmotivated scum so it's hard not to read it this way
Would you mind linking me to places where you've said this as scum.


One game is from a private forum elsewhere but in Newbie 1863 I did it several times. At first I fell behind because I was in the hospital again but after I got better something like posts #44 onward in my ISO were dodging or otherwise excuses for not reading the game closely. I've linked it somewhere in my ISO here.
In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 674, Nauci wrote:I generally gives 0 fucks about how I'm perceived in the game. If I am challenged on a specific thing or if someone has misinterpreted something I said, I'll address that. Otherwise, I just endeavor to town harder.
This pinged. This is a game of perceptions and to do well as town, you need to read people correctly and be read correctly. "I give zero fucks about how I'm perceived" feels like bravado/putting up a front. The most content you've written about anyone in your readslist is yourself (tied with Irrelephant) which is also odd for someone who doesn't care about how they are perceived.

I actually don't like anything you've written under the heading of yourself. Why give bullet-points when you don't like self-meta?
Okay thank you this gives me room for clarifications what I mean when I keep saying that I don't care how I'm read.

I specifically mean that:

-How I am read does not impact the way I think about others and read the game on a personal level. I'm not going to scramble and panic trying to think of ways to look more town to appease people. I'm not going to scumread people for scumreading me.

I will evaluate people's reads of me as if they were reads of anyone else: does their train of thought make sense from their perspective. I have a history of demonstrating this so my votes for people voting me don't need to be taken with as big a grain of salt as some others on the site.

I don't like self-meta as in I don't like when I read people's self meta, because it's super unreliable. But since not everyone shares that opinion, I provided some on myself, and with as many links as possible so it's something they can discover for themselves (made logistically easier) instead of taking my word for it.
In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 674, Nauci wrote:I'm extremely capable of separating someone's read of me with my evaluation of the circumstances of how they read me as if it was any other player and their content.
What's the point of saying this?
See above.
In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 674, Nauci wrote:I will get exhaustibly pedantic to correct a misconception so try not to make any or I will be here arguing w/ you on it for 9 pages.
It's well within your control to not argue with people for 9 pages if you don't think it's alignment-indicative so I don't see the point of this either. Obviously if do think it's alignment-indicative, then it's a good lead and not just being pedantic.
In the Mafia Tiebreaker game, Sky_Paladin repeatedly made statements that I thought were unbelievably wrong. He was the other loudest poster and driving much of the momentum of the game so I thought it was very important to correct his misreads. But pages and pages of correcting him later I still thought he was town, and just very wrong and very stubborn. I think it's critical that town operates on a shared set of facts before we draw opinions, and it ended up making the difference between lynching scum and lynching the person he was misreading.
In post 1913, BlackVoid wrote: How do you reconcile your stance of not sheeping with using TheWorst's vouch of Bernie as part of your reason to townread Bernie?
Sheeping = taking someone's word for it and assuming their stance

I took TW's read as a data point (among other data points).

___

Man, TW"s reactions to BV posts are truly heinous.

___

@BV
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Post Post #2201 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:42 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 2170, Nauci wrote:
Spoiler: Mathdino Case on The Worst in Open 719
Mathdino wrote:1. Stay in the background D1, make smart sounding statements but don't step on any toes. Never be the scummiest person.

2. Broadcast that you're gonna claim PR. Bonus points if you do this as town anyway.

3. Openly push scum wincon without looking like you're trying to. Play dumb at every opportunity. If experienced players are trying to lynch town, defer to them. Bonus BONUS points if they're trying to lynch good town.

4. Get indignant when people try to lynch you. OMGUSing acceptable.

5. Ham it alllll the way up to the point where half your posts are scumclaims while the other half are "townslips" and dumbtells because you're having fun playing scum and you're having fun fucking with town's heads. You're having even more fun when you know you won't get lynched through a PR claim.

sound about right?
Mathdino wrote:You're having even more fun when you know you won't get lynched through a PR claim.

sound about right?
Well frick.

VOTE: the worst is back to being my fav lynch. Also Nauci yeah I was kidding re:Not_Mafia, I scumread him and he's ignored me a couple times this game, so I asked that. :)
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Post Post #2202 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:12 am

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2186, Nauci wrote:Okay, so what is your opinion of page 87?
I haven’t read it in depth, what am I supposed to be looking for?
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Post Post #2203 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:12 am

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2185, Gustavo wrote:Ill only vote you/skittle/elephant today.
Sorry I left off nauci.
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Post Post #2204 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:57 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 1930, Bernie Sanders wrote:Everyone should probably either vote momrangal or at minimum respond to my points on her.
AFTER seeing the new momrangal responses, I feel approximately what you felt here =>
In post 1363, Bernie Sanders wrote:Momr I think might be scum now. half hearted nauci wagon join when she had way more reason to do me i dont like or understand. view on gamma and concern feels fake and even kinda excusatory. I get the impression she magicks reads because when she talks or responds to other people about her reads shes just like boring justifying and explaining and not like reconsidering doubting but also still not really like town explaining their thoughts. lack of emotion but also I feel like she doesn't try to convince or care if her explanations make an impact if that makes sense?
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In post 1933, Bernie Sanders wrote: Hell even in general I think looking to lockdown and call out fullteam distracts given if you have 2 scum but misread town as a third it potentially detracts from the whole thing and that approach you end up focusing on the people you feel least strongly and picking between them for a game of who is partner spec rather than actually pushing lynching most likely scum
Agreed.

I don't find that scum teams on this site really do all that much interaction/coordination outside of game ending hammering and trying to read into relationships is often like tea leaves. The first time I was scum here I wrote a huge wall of plans and strategies and whatever only to see my partner replaced out for inactivity, then the replacement replaced out for inactivity as well. Scum PTs I've read (besides Irrelephant and I's) were pretty sparse. There's a few player based behaviors that can be analyzed post flip, like the worst and irrelephant generally preferring to not bus if possible, but until we get more concrete info it's art, not science.
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In post 1936, Irrelephant11 wrote:Alright I'm getting distracted. I don't think we have good odds of hitting scum off-Gamma-wagon, unless anyone has reason to specifically think more scum were offwagon than on.

VOTE: the worst,
this is L-2


Honestly think Not_Mafia has good odds to be scum here too, but it's hard to make a case for obvious reasons
I still don't understand why you would think there are more scum on than off wagon. Scum tend to let town mislynch while bussing the kind of inevitable wagons Gamma had, but more importantly that kind of thing can only be evaluated if the game circumstances are considered, and it's a rather unique situation where half of the wagon was afk so it was a rubbish push but enough people off wagon scumread Gamma that they had some sort of smokescreen. It's more important to think about that kind of influence than the statistics. I agree it's unlikely that all scum are on or all off, but the 1/2 debate remains to be seen.

___
In post 1941, skitter30 wrote: He can towntell pretty hard with this playstyle. He just hasn't this game
He didn't when he was pressured. He didn't when the pressure eased up. He has decided that NOT doing so is the hill he will die on when pressed more.

ttyl
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Post Post #2205 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:00 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 2202, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2186, Nauci wrote:Okay, so what is your opinion of page 87?
I haven’t read it in depth, what am I supposed to be looking for?
teach us your ways of town teamwork, wise sensei
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Post Post #2206 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:04 am

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2205, Nauci wrote:
In post 2202, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2186, Nauci wrote:Okay, so what is your opinion of page 87?
I haven’t read it in depth, what am I supposed to be looking for?
teach us your ways of town teamwork, wise sensei
How does asking you what I’m supposed to be looking for show an unwillingness to work together?
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Post Post #2207 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:12 am

Post by Gustavo »

There are lots of pages I have to read that was missed while on v/la. Asking me to comment on page 87 without reading the pages before that is kind of hard. I need context that I don’t have. I’ve been skimming while on vacation.

For instance I misread bv’s post. I thought he said my vote today was bad. He was referring to day 1 on gamma. None of the active posters even pointed that out to me which pings me. Why didn’t somebody correct me?

Let me sit down and read tomorrow with my AC is being worked on and I’ll have more time. I’ve been on vacation since the 3rd.
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Post Post #2208 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:14 am

Post by Bernie Sanders »

I'm going to hard pull the BoP card and ask people to stop speccing PR and NK stuff anymore today, and I think I have to insist on mom today over duck. Nauci irrelephant I'm sorry but despite the meta thing I think my experience makes my judgment here more reliable.
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Post Post #2209 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:16 am

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2208, Bernie Sanders wrote:I'm going to hard pull the BoP card and ask people to stop speccing PR and NK stuff anymore today, and I think I have to insist on mom today over duck. Nauci irrelephant I'm sorry but despite the meta thing I think my experience makes my judgment here more reliable.
Earlier you made a post wanting to read your points for mom, but when I went looking I couldn’t find points. Where are these points I’ve missed?
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Post Post #2210 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Momrangal »

Ugh, been in a depression rutt sorry about that
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Post Post #2211 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:27 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 2208, Bernie Sanders wrote:I'm going to hard pull the BoP card and ask people to stop speccing PR and NK stuff anymore today, and I think I have to insist on mom today over duck. Nauci irrelephant I'm sorry but despite the meta thing I think my experience makes my judgment here more reliable.
Where I'm voting at any given time is usually a subset of people I'm okay with lynching

but we're so far from end of day that I'm not seeing why this is an issue versus pursuing appropriate avenues
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Post Post #2212 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:28 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

hmmmm

ok fine

VOTE: mom

L-2
, if anyone wants to join the wagon be sure to give intent because Not_Mafia might quickhammer

I've said a lot today, and I'm not sure there's a ton more information to be gathered fmpov, so I'm ready for a flip and more useful information.

I think Keyser deserves WAY more attention from many players who are just avoiding eye contact with anything that has his name in it, especially given Shoshin's case on him makes a lot of sense.

I think Not_Mafia is scummy and I don't recommend policy lynching him for playing quietly in every game but I do recommend lynching him when he has done 0 helpful things for town (suggesting he's not even reading) and participated in a town lynch.

I concede that it's possible that there was only one scum on-wagon but I don't yet have reason to clearly townread BV like others seem to, aside from a townlean on mathdino.

I'm hoping the next flip(s) will clear up enough associatives that I can be less paranoid tomorrow about players like skitter, nauci, & gustavo.

Oh and I think I have left skitter and BV hanging with some questions let me get back to those

pedit: oh mom is here! I'll UNVOTE: to have conversation with her for a bit
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Post Post #2213 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

ebwop UNVOTE: lol
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Post Post #2214 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:30 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 2207, Gustavo wrote:There are lots of pages I have to read that was missed while on v/la. Asking me to comment on page 87 without reading the pages before that is kind of hard. I need context that I don’t have. I’ve been skimming while on vacation.

For instance I misread bv’s post. I thought he said my vote today was bad. He was referring to day 1 on gamma. None of the active posters even pointed that out to me which pings me. Why didn’t somebody correct me?

Let me sit down and read tomorrow with my AC is being worked on and I’ll have more time. I’ve been on vacation since the 3rd.
I didn't ask you to skip everything and just read 87. Just tell me what your thoughts are once you get there.

I haven't read up to BV's post about you yet and I assume that both of us will get to the recent topics as we get there.
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Post Post #2215 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:37 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 2212, Irrelephant11 wrote: I've said a lot today, and I'm not sure there's a ton more information to be gathered fmpov, so I'm ready for a flip and more useful information.
I am extremely not ready for this until BV is done with 500+ more posts and counting

And I have 8 pages to go but can't get to it until after class and projects, which might be tomorrow night

There's plenty of room for mom or BV or even my interactions left in the day. I haven't even put on my casing gloves
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Post Post #2216 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Ahaha okay my b! I'm not trying to rush, just stating where I'm at. I also want to make sure we have enough time to change in wagons if necessary, and we're down to just above 3 days.
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Post Post #2217 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Bernie Sanders »

WRT earlier d1
In post 1363, Bernie Sanders wrote:Momr I think might be scum now. half hearted nauci wagon join when she had way more reason to do me i dont like or understand. view on gamma and concern feels fake and even kinda excusatory. I get the impression she magicks reads because when she talks or responds to other people about her reads shes just like boring justifying and explaining and not like reconsidering doubting but also still not really like town explaining their thoughts. lack of emotion but also I feel like she doesn't try to convince or care if her explanations make an impact if that makes sense?
WRT d1
In post 1739, Bernie Sanders wrote:I'm going to go into this more tomorrow but irrelephant pretty much mirrored my thoughts on VCA here and that was specifically why I even chose momrangal and yeah generally the thing that I think sometimes scum want to avoid heat from being on mislynch wagon whenever possible. Not always but sometimes they see lynches as worse than town because they know it's a mislynch, so it feels extra scummy for them to join and they have reasons why its mislynchy that they can't explain. I think gamma played awful here ad made it very hard to read him and I even can usually reliably sort him
But recommend you read her and my posts page 76 viewtopic.php?p=10307186

Context is very important here to understand it however. The day had already gone on a little bit by then and mom is coming back from being busy or whatever. I think okay on very chance she's actually town I should be able to tell if she really means it in either her push today or whatever else (if convincing progression to justify). She talks about how keysors take is a little odd (keysor among other things specced mom+me) and irrelephant betrayed her by changing his read on mom. Talking to skitter she first brings up the read on herself then me. I'm her top scumread to the point where she says she says its pointless engaging with me () but she doesn't really push me with any kind of effort (like idk no even vote), her tone feels really flat and I don't see anything that makes me think she really believes in the read or cares that much what happens today aside from a bit on trying to get people to stop scumreading her.
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Post Post #2218 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Shoshin »

I don't want this day ending until BV is caught up.

I'm no longer townreadnig him because his catch up is taking way longer than it should.
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Post Post #2219 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 2125, Nauci wrote:Okay I opted out of group work so I can slack off and read today and then code until 5 AM too make up for my hubris
what's your major btw?
In post 2129, the worst wrote:EP ily
<3 <3 <3
In post 2134, BlackVoid wrote:Can you talk about why because I had pretty much the exact opposite thought. I think the direction of her reads lines up decently enough with mine that it pushed her over to a townlean for me. But I hated the self-meta section. A lot of it felt fake although I'm more inclined to attribute it to playstyle at this point.
Spoiler: spoilered because i wanted to respond, but i dont thnk that any of these points are important anymore
Yeah, I mentioned that I disagreed when you made that post. I dont think there's scum motivation to present self-meta unprompted. I don't think scum thinks to do that especially when it's sort of a risky way to approach things.

In regards to my worst and Skitter points, I can't really give you a super satisfactory answer there. The most I can say is that I thought worst's replace-in was towny and the there was some way that skitter was going about things that I thought was scummy, I've since flushed both reads so I dont really know. I was disengaged from the game due to real life issues

And for the record, I don't think I ever said that I thought Skitter had a similar playstyle, but I do remember mentioning being pleased that she formatted posts how I used to format them (namely, with the -- between points)

In regards to my Gustavo point: when I say "probabilistically" i don't mean "in the history of the site scum has uttered this phrase more than town" i mean "i can see this statement coming from scum more plausibly than most other statements"
And the reason for that is because I thought that town doesnt pat themselves on the back for ruffling feathers, town just does it
I dont consider either of those points (or actually any of these points) important to my thought process though

In post 2134, BlackVoid wrote:I wish Errantparabola was made to take a stance and put a vote down.
you and everyone else on the site :(
In post 2156, Nauci wrote:-Are we all collectively silently deciding to mostly not discuss the lack of night kill because it could be any one of like a dozen reasons? I've never seen a game with this little setup spec.
I mean.... do you have any theories? Like, there's no information to go off on. I guess it's something to keep in mind but I dont see any value in talking about it now
In post 2159, Nauci wrote:Skitter, Irrelephant, Errant, BS: Did you move because your <current vote target> is scummier than tw to you, or because you town read something(s) tw post?
happy with either mom or worst but i would be significantly happier with mom, consider me to echo BS's response
In post 2167, the worst wrote:I'm really happy for you that you have a hobby you're so passionate about that you're driven to stay up until 3am posting about it but what. I'm meant to give you a free townread over it? you don't like my stance because I'm not going "OH EFFORT NAUCI YAY TOWN"?
do you think thats the reason why other ppl townread nauci?
and could you go into your read on mom? or point me to where you mention it?

Are there people that have juicy meta information on irrelephant and that's the reason he's town? If so could someone point me to it?
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Post Post #2220 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:47 am

Post by Bernie Sanders »

In post 2211, Nauci wrote:Where I'm voting at any given time is usually a subset of people I'm okay with lynching

but we're so far from end of day that I'm not seeing why this is an issue versus pursuing appropriate avenues
I thought this as well but deadline is starting to creep up.
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Post Post #2221 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:50 am

Post by Errantparabola »

In post 2210, Momrangal wrote:Ugh, been in a depression rutt sorry about that
please take care of yourself first and foremost.
If you do have the time to respond to things, I think that the most important things to look at are BS's ISO and the worst's ISO -- i would be most interested to know where you stand on those two.
In post 2218, Shoshin wrote:I'm no longer townreadnig him because his catch up is taking way longer than it should.
wasn't the original reason you townread him due to some really apparent meta read? Is the length of time that he's taking enough to invalidate that?
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Post Post #2222 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:54 am

Post by Bernie Sanders »

being directed to Gustavo
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Post Post #2223 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:06 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2221, Errantparabola wrote:wasn't the original reason you townread him due to some really apparent meta read? Is the length of time that he's taking enough to invalidate that?
Nah, the original reason is because I liked the nuance in his posts. But Skitter brought up a valid point about how it's easier to fake that sort of posting when you're catching up rather than playing in real time, and now it feels like he's stalling by taking forever to catch up.
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Nauci
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Post Post #2224 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:09 am

Post by Nauci »

Not majoring in anything (dropped out of Carnegie Mellon Computer Science ages ago).

I'm in a programming bootcamp 10 hours a day with 3-6 hours of homework, and I've been trying to catch up on sick days. Missing one day is like missing several weeks of a class at college :o
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