OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[ceejayvinoya]

Why is sando on your scum pool tho

[Ausuka]

@ausuka - weird post to choose to point out and TR for vulcan. You don't think he'd make such a post as scum?

i think it reads as genuine.

[Ausuka]

People tend to talk when they are mentioned, it has to do with ego or something, I just want to make it more noticeable.

Well sure but if that's true why aren't you just mentioning people in thread instead of dedicating your vote to "pressuring?" and why do you feel current posting rates from people are unacceptable?

[Ausuka]

Vulcan and ausuka aren't contributing much,

they don't seem to want to make waves so to speak.

They could be scum.

why do you feel this way?

[BuJaber]

Why is sando on your scum pool tho

If brass is town he's scum. I felt that he agreed with his meta analysis so that he wouldn't analyze him further.
If brass is scum I think Sando is town though. Kind of too obvious buddying there.
And sando picked a low number (4).
I think scum don't want to lose their shot at getting a PR and they would have tried (at least one of them would have) to pick one of the low numbers.

@ausuka - just feels like you aren't being controversial and both your votes were on rising wagons.

[ruru]

Invisibility is scum.

Do you usually express this much certainty as town?

[ruru]

Hmm

{ofrhz, skitter, ceejay}
{BuJaber, Ausuka, Skygazer}
{Sando, AP, vulcan}
{Oka, Invis}
{Enigma, brassherald}

noting for posterity that skygazer and AP are the slots I'm most likely to have positive bias on

[the worst]

VOTE COUNT 1.9

Sando (0)

~

skitter30 (0)

~

AP (0)

~

brassherald (1)

~ BuJaber,

BuJaber (1)

~ Enigma,

Ausuka (0)

~

Skygazer (0)

~

vulcan logician (1)

~ Sando,

ceejayvinoya (0)

~

ruru (0)

~

ofrhz (0)

~

Invisibility (2)

~ brassherald, OkaPoka,

OkaPoka (2)

~ AP, Invisibility,

Enigma (6)

~ Ausuka, Skygazer, ruru, ofrhz, skitter30, ceejayvinoya,

NOT VOTING:

vulcan logician,

with 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

day one will end in (expired on 2018-07-25 18:30:00)

mod notes:

- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack

[AP]

Idk what to do with invis. I'll just call him null. Oh well. Back here I guess

VOTE: Enigma

Pedit naa naa naaa i dont hear youuu

OK. This looks like a bad vote to me, but I want to gave an explanation before I make a push. Please explain in you own words what was going through your mind when you posted this.

[AP]

@ruru: Why is brass scum? I kinda have a slight TR on him. Help?

[OkaPoka]

Why is sando on your scum pool tho

If brass is town he's scum. I felt that he agreed with his meta analysis so that he wouldn't analyze him further.
If brass is scum I think Sando is town though. Kind of too obvious buddying there.
And sando picked a low number (4).
I think scum don't want to lose their shot at getting a PR and they would have tried (at least one of them would have) to pick one of the low numbers.

@ausuka - just feels like you aren't being controversial and both your votes were on rising wagons.

wait what?

everyone doesn't want to lose their shot at getting a PR, pregame is a game of wifom, sure one of them would have picked a low number is a reasonable assumption but if you selected three random players chances are at least one picked a lowish number. I don't see how this is insightful

[ruru]

@ruru: Why is brass scum? I kinda have a slight TR on him. Help?

I feel like he had some good posts early but he's been like acting busy recently and I actually don't value the early posts as much because scum are more likely to try hardest to look town on first impression

I think the Ausuka vote was bad (like regardless of her alignment even), "pressure vote" on invis which turned into a certain scumread after invis's towniest posts is really questionable (like did he even read any of invis's town meta?)

Something like that

[ruru]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

[Enigma]

1. Do you think 2 of 3 scum are on my 5 person wagon. I think less likely but not impossible.

Right but the whole reason I'm questioning you about this is that you could say that based purely on probability

"2 players are unlikely to be scum in a random sample of 3" is a much different statement than "if one flips scum, the others are less likely than (2/whatever) to be scum"

The latter involves some sort of correlation or associative read

I'm asking if knowing one of our alignments would affect your read on the others

3. Check my previous posts if it wasn't subtle enough before I wrote it out

Okay I just reread your iso

The first couple times I read 176 I don't think I understood it

I read sky's post as saying that

she's

blatantly sheeping her townreads onto you

I'm now reading your post as you thinking sky was accusing you of sheeping onto a wagon (bujaber), and you thinking it was hypocritical of her?

4. Because it can suggest not being in the non-informed majority ...

Do you think town specifically wouldn't townread my entrance?

Do you think town specifically wouldn't vote a scumread without asking a question?

What are your thoughts on PL on a PGO claim before LYLO?

I'm too obvtown to pl

Its not probability. I don't think scum would so blatantly all jump at the same time onto my wagon. So if one flipped red, I would be less suspicious of the others.

Tbh there are still those who are still grasping at straws over my first (semi-)RVS vote. I don't know any plauers in this game. I had thought of voting bujaber to start of with anyways even before the game started for picking the same number as me ... w/e the explanation of probability theory (which i still stand by) came off badly and it was barely a "wagon" in a sense it was RVS. If I wanted to slip under the wagon (as scum would) I would just do a single "random" vote post and disappear.

I don't know town ruru, I don't know scum ruru. I read the scum PT posted and your entrance play seemed so weird. It was just that I though (and still do) that your play was non-town optimal. But whatever, it's distracting and I already mentioned previously that I was going to ignore the whole PGO debacle until later in the game.

I would like to think a town player would want to confirm for themselves a scum read suspicion before voting? Unless they are that cocky about their play/reads ...

[Enigma]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

Soz real life, it was one day ... and if I were to flip (town) what would you say about the counter wagon then?

[Enigma]

I don't think Engima was scumreading BuJaber

Explain 39 in light of Oka's statement. Also, why don't we ask Enigma himself rather than declare reads on his behalf?

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

So he does SR BuJaber. Or are his probability calculations indicative of intent to propose for marriage? And how can a vote based on the

probability of being scum

be considered a RANDOM vote?

Oh come on. You just mentioned why do we ask me, then you go on to make a conclusion of my scum read....

It was a semi-RVS vote for picking the same number as me, I would have done it regardless of what had happened before I posted. The probability stuff is true. Go read game theory and cooperative/non-cooperative game play.

[Enigma]

his statistics based scumhunting makes v little sense tho and resulted in an opportunistic vote on a wagon and even tho he's making an effort to look like he's scumhunting since then he hasn't taken his vote off the wagon

There was no wagon and it was page 1. It makes very little sense cause you don't understand and then stubbornly sit there beating the same (first) post over and over again. Here, go enlighten yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

Don't need to take my vote off, it's not doing anything bad where it is right now, don't like the Oka wagon, and spending more effort defending myself than scumhunting.

[Enigma]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

Soz real life, it was one day ... and if I were to flip (town) what would you say about the counter wagon then?

Also, its 14 game days. I disappear for one night (which I will do whenever I want to), IMO it's perfectly fine and even beneficial for people to keep playing the game and not just tunnelling and waiting for my availability.

[Skygazer]

341: Yes, it was a wagon, and your vote was the fourth one in it

I don't see how someone stating that two people with the same number can't be in the same scum team (which is false btw) automagically means someone with the same number as you is likely to be scum. That's not game theory, it's a bad leap of logic and you're not even backing it up with actual odds/statistics. And now you're calling me stubborn and telling me to enlighten myself by linking to a broad wikipedia post on game theory? Like what are you even trying to accomplish? Do you think I'm going to read that and somehow throw all logic out the window?

[Skygazer]

That's needlessly condescending

[ruru]

I feel like the "semi-RVS" vote is kind of a scumtell

and like simultaneously defending it as rational but also writing it off as not scum-indicative because it was RVS

[Enigma]

341: Yes, it was a wagon, and your vote was the fourth one in it

I don't see how someone stating that two people with the same number can't be in the same scum team (which is false btw) automagically means someone with the same number as you is likely to be scum. That's not game theory, it's a bad leap of logic and you're not even backing it up with actual odds/statistics. And now you're calling me stubborn and telling me to enlighten myself by linking to a broad wikipedia post on game theory? Like what are you even trying to accomplish? Do you think I'm going to read that and somehow throw all logic out the window?

Wagons in RVS mean nothing.
Well, maybe if you did maybe try to look a bit into it, you might understand where I'm coming from and my logic, rather than stubbornly dismissing everything I say and repeating the same arguments we've already touched on. Yes stubborn.

Let's not waste our time further.

[Enigma]

I feel like the "semi-RVS" vote is kind of a scumtell

and like simultaneously defending it as rational but also writing it off as not scum-indicative because it was RVS

As you wish, not sure any further explanation will convince a few people on the wagon otherwise.

There is rationality behind it as I explained, and it's not a scum indicative. It's the first post, and I'm also not sure what scum would achieve by jumping on the wagon .... were we going to quick lynch??

[ceejayvinoya]

Idk what to do with invis. I'll just call him null. Oh well. Back here I guess

VOTE: Enigma

Pedit naa naa naaa i dont hear youuu

OK. This looks like a bad vote to me, but I want to gave an explanation before I make a push. Please explain in you own words what was going through your mind when you posted this.

Simple. I tried to put pressure on invis with a vote and see what happens. Nothing much happened so I went back to Enigma.

[the worst]

quack?