Open 730: Donner Party [Terminado]

[Sando]

Where's my joke? Also fix the second post please

VOTE: NM

You're meant to send the joke, not get one

[Sando]

I don't get it.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Oxo is a brand of beef/chicken stock.

[Sando]

Question: are we hypoing?

SK and mafia want to kill the "cop" and there's no way to stop the SK N1 since they've got a 1 shot protection from it. Seems bad on first pass to give any potential hints to the SK or mafia on the "cop".

[Sando]

Hypoclaiming

Ex "If I am the cop, MM is town."

Wait do you mean tomorrow? Yeah I think that idea rates a discussion. It's going to be interesting given we may have no information on the flips. Given that mafia/SK have even more knowledge compared to town than usual, I'm thinking that hypo-ing tomorrow seems like a good way to address some of that. Haven't thought through the practicalities of it yet though.

[Sando]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee

are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?

We (me included with Otter and CJ) just played a newbie (I was SE, Otter was newbie slot after coming back from break, CJ replaced into a newbie game) where CJ was scum.

And I wouldn't want to hypo with flipless kills tbh.

I think it depends on the # of kills. If there's less than 3 kills then

something

happened overnight and town want that information or to free up the vig/RBs knowledge of what happened. That said, hypo might not be the best bet.

[Sando]

Hypoclaiming is quite useless, because the cop really should claim if he's put on stand.

Wat? These two are completely separate functions. The cop (and any other PR) should claim if they're about to get lynched as per normal. Hypoclaiming is to allow you to give results as a PR without giving away your PR status.

[Sando]

Hypoclaiming is to allow you to give results as a PR without giving away your PR status

Except if you clear any of the 3 anti-town players you are telling one or two of them you're not the Cop.

But there's this little thing I want to note right now: There is NO COP! It's a GUNSMITH. This means our investigative can return up to 4 guilties, but one of them is fake (the Vig will return a positive result as well as the Mafia/SK).

Good point on the "cop" vs "gunsmith". Yes I'm aware of the dangers of hypo'ing, they're the same every game it's discussed. I'd also push for the hypo to be around the vig depending on kills, since non-town can't be sure the person wasn't RBd even if they say they vig'd them.

I also saw someone mentioning a Roleblocker, and I really hope that was a typo. Otherwise I'd assume someone's playing the game without knowing the setup or mechanics, which would really suck.

Me, why are you hoping it's a typo? Are you hoping it's a typo in the opening post of rolecards as well?

[Sando]

Hypoclaiming is quite useless, because the cop really should claim if he's put on stand.

Wat? These two are completely separate functions. The cop (and any other PR) should claim if they're about to get lynched as per normal. Hypoclaiming is to allow you to give results as a PR without giving away your PR status.

...but WE WONT KNOW if the guy is telling truth before a long while. Crumbs > hypoclaims. We don't want a day wasted on talking about hypoclaims lol. @Shizune, hypoclaiming is saying that if you are XXX role, you did XXX last night.

My point is that regardless of whether we decide on crumbs vs hypo, PRs should claim if they're about to get lynched. They're independent and the fact that they should claim pre-lynch does not change the hypo vs crumb discussion at all.

Where's the gunsmith part, pray tell??

Yep

Dietitian will return a "guilty" on: Mafia, SK, Vig
A traditional gunsmith will return a "guilty" on: Mafia, SK, Vig
A tradition cop will return a "guilty" on: Mafia, SK.

Hence "gunsmith" is a better descriptor than "cop".

[Sando]

Happy with AP being town here. Only thing that gave me pause was the calling me out on GS vs cop and simultaneously getting the roleblocker thing wrong but after letting him respond to that his backdown was townie. Scum don't put themselves out there like this and especially don't theory-craft this hard.

I think decent chance of scum in ejj/MM, and I don't think they're scum together. 44 through 49 did not feel organic to me and I'm trying to put my finger on anything specific in there, it feels a bit buddying to me. They're both disagreeing with a hypo claim (which is fine to disagree with) using talk about whether the

cop

GS should claim or not if threatened with lynching (which is not a fine conversation, obviously they should and that has no bearing on us hypoing or not). They also both focus on the

cop

GS while ignoring the other PRs, who is the biggest threat to SK since no block there, and obviously a big threat to Mafia as well.

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I also prefer to TR in early days, based on an article written by Math I believe, and basically POE. My early day scumreads tend to be pretty bad, especially compared to my TRs.



AP I'm struggling to see the advantage of hypoing in the case of 3 kills. We've got a vig with a result we don't know and would like, but no way of confirming the vig without them outing themselves, and the setup is such that confirming the vig (them flipping in front of town) confirms their result as well (correct me if I'm wrong here). The only advantage I see of hypoing a 3 kill day2 is to then massclaim D3, if we don't get a vig claim we can narrow down their results. Vig getting eaten N2 onwards is a really bad situation for town though, I'm not sure any hypo on a 3 kill night is worth that risk.

Hence my talk about what to do in the case of 1-2 kills. Either the vig has a result that we'd like to have, or the RB stopped a kill and we'd like to know that, or the vig hit the SK and we'd like to know that, or two factions hit the same person and I don't think we can know that except by POE. My thoughts haven't fully percolated through yet, but I think we can potentially get enough info through to the GS+Vig to let them break the game open at least a little bit.

[Sando]

Sorry, I didn't expect to have this hectic a weekend, I'll be back online tomorrow

[Sando]

Wait AP, who is A, B & C in this crocodile escapade?

A = CJ, B = Otter, C = Unreal?

1) I voted LuckyOtter for meta reasons. Everything was fine then.

2) LuckyOtter then explains why my vote on him was wrong.

3) Then UnrealSeal comes along. He votes LuckyOtter, but for reasons different for what I put forward, reasons which I feel come from not reading LuckyOtter's explanation on why my vote was wrong.

4) I voted UnrealSeal and told him I didn't understand his vote, and that LuckyOtter already provided what I had asked of him.

5) UnrealSeal then tells me he voted LuckyOtter for being deflective in his answer.

6) Finding his answer satisfactory, I switched back.

I added numbers for readability and ability to reference.

My main issue is around (2), did you think it fair enough from Otter or did you not think it a reasonable explanation?

When you say deflective from Otter, you're saying that this progression happened:
a) CJ accuses Otter of being unengaged compared to his town-game
b) Otter says "yo no-one engaged me"*
c) CJ accepts unengaged explanation
d) Unreal says "yo that's no excuse, that's deflection"*
e) CJ accepts Unreals deflection point.
(*artistic liberties taken)

Yet:

I don't think Lucky is being deflective in his answer.

This despite what actually happened:

Otter's answer seems deflective and that's my big problem with it.

then very next post:

Darn I see your point.

VOTE: LuckyOtter

I think saying that Unreal voted for different reasons is not really a reasonable statement, you made a case, Otter responded, Unreal thought the response wasn't good enough. To say his point is unrelated isn't really fair... I also think the language of "I see your point" is an indication you agree with it, when I think you're implying in (6) that you merely thought it was good enough to warrant an unvote, rather than agreeing with it.

You're flip-flopping alllll over the place with the deflection point.

[Sando]

But that's not agreement. That's me saying I understood him. I "saw" his point. I didn't say "I agree with you" or "hey, you're actually right".

Even if I follow your logic (which I disagree with, but semantics I guess), you then voted someone who you'd made a case on who had then made a convincing argument to you about why your case was weak.

If Otter convinced you your unengaged case was weak, and you didn't agree with Unreal's reasoning (only agreed it was reasonable town-argument if unconvincing to you), then why did you go back to voting Otter? You expressed 1 reason for voting Otter, Unreal expressed another, apparently Otter convinced you the first wasn't reasonable and you never agreed that Unreals was reasonable...yet you then vote Otter? For what reason?

[Sando]

You did read my post 92? I specifically said he wasn't being engaged. Otter's 105 is okay to me. What do you think is wrong about it?

and then:

Explain to me like I'm a 5th grader on why Otter's answer was bad because I still don't get it.

There's a hell of a lot of lineball word-game-interpretations here that you're asking me to all fall on your side for. "Not fully satisfied" after hard-defending that post and attacking someone calling it out and then asking why his post was bad. "Darn I see your point" isn't agreement, it's just acknowledgement, etc.

You also then do this:

Right now my problem with you here @Otter, is that in our previous game, your first few votes actually makes sense and are progressive.

So I was kinda disappointed when I saw these.

Mind telling me why Marsh is a good wagon atm?

(context, CJ quotes LuckyOtter voting Marsh and I've removed it for brevity).
Then do this:

I think MM is likely scum. As for if they're the same alignment, I dunno.

VOTE: Marshmallow

For reference, I believe this is your only other reference to MM (other than asking Otter why he's voting MM):

In fact, looking at your examples, they actually don't apply. Idk why MM agrees with you.

Please tell me you just set a trap and you got MM

So Otter was scummy for lack of progression onto MM and then you do the same?

[Sando]

NM is just pissed someone took his lol hammer glory.

[Sando]

VOTE: not_mafia

why are u doing naked votes and doing nothing of substance

I'm told it's his meta and NAI.

ive played with him a couple years back and although he was trolly he was a lot more substantive

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

I think those that have played with him a decent amount will be fairly confident of reading him, it's a bit of a "ohhh, that's how it works" kind of realisation and you feel confident about it after that. This is also telling me the vig has probably played with N_M a few times since N_M is basically universally seen as vig-bait from what I've seen, so the vig either got blocked, N_M is SK (neither of these are likely) or the vig is confident of N_M read.

CJ flat out isn't Mafia and I very much doubt is SK. He doesn't proactively make cases like he did on MM yesterday, he doesn't answer back like he did with me yesterday. By far the scummiest thing he did was the late vote with no rationalisation on MM, and if MM had flipped town I'd have run at him hard, but he flipped red and CJ doesn't bus at all that I've seen, and that was not what a bus looks like. It could be SK but I don't think so, mostly because I think Ejj is.

I still think from early interactions with MM that Ejj doesn't seem genuine, especially compared to his later case on MM, I think he's SK.

VOTE: Ejj

[Sando]

About the Night action: 1 NK only either means (a) Mafia hit the SK & Vig got RB'd, (b) Vig hit the SK & Mafia got RB'd, (c) both SK & Mafia targeted Blackstar & Vig got RB'd (can't see the town Vig targeting Blackstar to be honest), (d) Someone holstered (and you can repeat all possibilities for where the other NK went).

So I think you're saying this here already, but 100% the SK targeted Black, the SK is one-shot immune from RB as well as getting NKd, so there's no way to stop the SK kill N1 if they're alive, which they are.

[Sando]

does anyone else find it odd that Sando voted the only person V/LA and is calling them flat out SK?

He's had the VLA up all game I believe.

[Sando]

About the Night action: 1 NK only either means (a) Mafia hit the SK & Vig got RB'd, (b) Vig hit the SK & Mafia got RB'd, (c) both SK & Mafia targeted Blackstar & Vig got RB'd (can't see the town Vig targeting Blackstar to be honest), (d) Someone holstered (and you can repeat all possibilities for where the other NK went).

So I think you're saying this here already, but 100% the SK targeted Black, the SK is one-shot immune from RB as well as getting NKd, so there's no way to stop the SK kill N1 if they're alive, which they are.

who do u think maf targetted

Manatee was pretty conf-town with a lolhammer on scum.
CJ was conf-town with MM flip
AP should be TRd pretty hard this game but that's a personal read, mafia might not agree.

As Mafia I'd have hit one of those, I have thoughts on PRs so I'm not going to go deeper there. Based on wagon dynamics and flip I'm honestly amazed CJ/Mana didn't die.

[Sando]

does anyone else find it odd that Sando voted the only person V/LA and is calling them flat out SK?

He's had the VLA up all game I believe.

She had quite a few contenful posts

I meant the tag, I've specifically called out some of those posts, I'm aware they've posted...

[Sando]

why was Ceejay conf. town?

CJ's push on MM was so far outside of scum meta as to be pretty much conf-town. The vote on MM was pure scum-CJ though, slide in with no read, hence by EOD I was pretty up in the air on CJ. With the flip, the slide in clearly wasn't a scum move, CJ won't do that on a partner, leaving only SK or town as a possibility, I don't think he's SK.

[Sando]

What could be a possibility is Scum!Sando who attacked SK!Ejji and is trying to get Ejji lynched before they come back

Why would I go for the lynch in this scenario? Mafia hitting SK just sit quietly, and then re-kill the SK that night.

[Sando]

why was Ceejay conf. town?

CJ's push on MM was so far outside of scum meta as to be pretty much conf-town. The vote on MM was pure scum-CJ though, slide in with no read, hence by EOD I was pretty up in the air on CJ. With the flip, the slide in clearly wasn't a scum move, CJ won't do that on a partner, leaving only SK or town as a possibility, I don't think he's SK.

the only thing I saw him mention MM specifically was 174
I didn't see much of a push

Apologies, meant Otter.
The push on Otter was townie as all getout
The vote on MM was scummie due to exactly what you just said, he barely mentions MM and slips in late.

[Sando]

Although not quite the same, these posts are related so I'm responding to them both in one go:

Assuming the RB blocked the Goon, where is the Vig's kill?? (It must've been on nthe SK in this case).
However, it could be the other way around, and the RB actually blocked the Vig and thus it was the Goon who targeted the SK. (trust me, it's a valid assumption).
A third is the SK DID NOT ACT. This is pretty unlikely though because even if it was OkaPoka (the one person that replaced in during the night) they had enough time to read the game (just 10 pages), and even at the worst case they could've just submitted a random kill (No reason not to. There's no tracker/watcher/motion detector/follower/PGO/redirector.. etc. so there's absolutely no danger in killing someone literally based on a dice roll)

I think you're right on the options for Mafia/Vig, was just saying that we should assume SK was (one of) the killer(s) of Black.

I think N1 it's safe to assume both Mafia and SK shot, zero reason not to.

[Sando]

the funny thing is I just finished a game where something like this happened, and I pushed the person who slipped onto scum wagon at the end, and he flipped scum.

would it be too much to hope for twice?

Same game CJ and Otter were discussing earlier in the game had CJ scum completely ignore opportunities where he "should" have bussed. I don't see a game where his 1 partner is about to die D1 as the time CJ chooses to drastically change his playstyle like that.

[Sando]

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say

the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

Forgot to ask about this earlier, but wut? You earlier:

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta

, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I'm not following.

What aren't you following? I'm saying in one that he doesn't look like his scum-self, and in the other I'm saying he looks like his town-self. He's not very jokey and lurkey as scum, and he also doesn't commit to votes that early as scum. It's not a lot to go off, but that's N_M.

[Sando]

@CJV: Really?? You know, after my reread and by association and "best guessing" ..etc I had ruled you out of being anti-town despite not particularly liking your posts of D1. You faking total ignorance here still rubs me the wrong way and I can't be too sure you're not the Mafia/SK after all.

I honestly don't know what's going on here. If I'm being ignorant then that means I am ignorant. It looks to me like you already had an idea of what happened. Why not just tell me what I'm missing?

AP can answer for himself, but the obvious thing to me here is that you're ignoring the very real chance that Vig/Mafia hit the SK, and the implications of that.

I'm not sure what you ignoring that means for you being Mafia/SK, but it's a fairly big implication for us to unpack that you've ignored.

[Sando]

Oh. Then this means SK MUST have hit blackstar. The rest won't be reliably worked out until later days.

Yes, the SK absolutely 100% hit blackstar, the only other option is that the SK no-killed, and I see no reason the SK would ever choose to no-kill, at least night 1.

[Sando]

In fact, here's an idea.. change of plans"

@Vig: Shoot the same target (if you targeted someone last night).
@RB: Block the same target you blocked last night.

I agree with this, it occurred to me while thinking through the whole CJ dismissing SK getting shot thing that if Vig (and probably Mafia) got a shot off on the SK last night, most likely the only chance of SK living is for the RB to subsequently change over to the Vig tonight. Vig aren't going to adjust their kill, not sure on Mafia but they have no protection from NK so they probably want a killer gone with no flip of said killer.

The rest of it I'm processing, but I think you're assuming a lot of spilled info that might not spill? I can see a few edge-cases that ruin your theory though. I see no accounting for kills going onto the same person there either. I think your outcome of vig/RB retargeting are the best options though, regardless.

[Sando]

I’m not sure what that whole post was really about, but it seems like “Oh I understand this is and I’m trying to make it clearer so that it seems like I’m being pro-town by clearing things up”

Wait what? I tried to clear something up with AP, but the main part of the post was going after CJ saying he was trying to rewrite history. I posted his words and put them side by side to show that they didn't really make sense together. I then follow up in 178 and again in 182. I was pretty clearly digging into CJ there, I dunno how you think I was just trying to "clean things up".

[Sando]

i played with him a long time ago and he was not like this

Oka how long ago was this? You took a break and have come back correct? So you played with him pre-break but not since coming back?

[Sando]

I voted you because I thought that your posts were being overly safe and inoffensive. You hadn't laid a vote down till now and when N_M asked you about that, you threw shade at him.

I don't understand how you can accuse AP of that right now, emphasis on the "you":

I have no real scum-reads at the moment

(I previously had one on Lucky, but his vote was on MM and I don't think he was bussing in this instance.) and while I do have some theories, most of them are stretches at the moment.

I'll park on VOTE: OkaPoka for now

(bolding mine)
then a single "yes" post before:

With that said, I am at a loss for actual scum-reads so I'll vote the person who gives me the most bad vibes

VOTE: AP

I believe your Oka vote was the first on him, but if not it was second. In what world is "I have no scumreads so here's a vote on someone no-one else is wagoning" NOT playing it safe?

[Sando]

Nope, Unreal, but it was rhetorical, so feel free to answer

[Sando]

the only world in which abandoing a wagon that is potentially gaining steam (my wagon with lucky joining unreal's vote) is less safe than starting a vote on no-one else wagon (AP) is one in which AP is scumread/unreal has a lead.

So you're saying that if Unreal flips town or claims a PR you're not going to have some piercing questions for those on the wagon? Sitting on a wagon is not "safe", or at least it shouldn't be. Vote-parking, which Unreal specifically says he's doing, is "safe" because you're saying that you're not really pushing a lynch, you just want to park your vote somewhere, preferably somewhere where it's not about to become the hot button topic.

You're also ignoring that both times he votes, he specifically says "I have no real scumreads", how is that not an indicator of playing it safe and expressing a lack of conviction in votes/reads?

I'm away for the next 24 hours or so. Please be aware that you have N_M in the game with a penchant for lolhammering. You also have Manatee in the game with a penchant for stealing N_Ms lolhammer

[Sando]

I'm town

Holy cow! An udder empty post of those and even I am going to start suspecting you!!
Do we have to milk you for reads? Say something and let's get the game moooooving!

vote him or he can do this without consequence

Oka he does this without consequence...it's his meta and you kinda have to deal with that. He feeds off reactions like you, and voting/lynching him will absolutely not change his playstyle, quite the opposite.

[Sando]

Other scum could be anyone.

Don't know, don't care rn. Maybe it is seal, I just think not_mafia is a much superior lynch than seal today.

So you acknowledge you're considering the "other scum", which is a different faction than whatever scum you think (thought) NM is, then:

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi?

You assume a binary outcome here, red+red is flat out not an option for you in this scenario? Why not?

[Sando]

because not_mafia is an omniscient mafia genius who needs no explanation

Are you just trolling because you're annoyed at people not agreeing with you on NM?

[Sando]

one maf is dead
that means
there is either sk left
maf left
or sk and maf left

If Blackstar was Mafia then we have just SK left, however this seems unlikely and a terrible assumption to make.
Blackstar flat out cannot be SK, the BP is "one night" not "one shot", and even if it was "one shot" AND both Vig and Mafia shot him, then Blackstars target would be dead.
By far and away the most likely scenario is both SK and Mafia still alive

[Sando]

would you say not_mafia is trolling?

He always trolls.

[Sando]

okay

so when you say im acknowledging other scum as another faction then that is a given right?

I'm saying that in your Sando vs NM post you've assumed that only one of us can flip scum. The only people who can assume that (other than me and NM obviously) are:

Scum (either Mafia or SK)
GS with an inno on one of the 2 - that's not true here, you'd be pushing your inno and I can't see a gambit/trap from you here
Vig with a guilty elsewhere - that's not true here, and even if true you can't be 100%
Vig who ate Blackstar!Mafia - somehow I doubt that...

So given I can't see any logical town rational for your assumption+play, that only leaves scum in that list.

[Sando]

is there a difference between scum not_mafia and town not_mafia that we can find?

Here's a scumgame I played with him (I was town to his scum): viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812

Here's his description of his play:

1 Quickhammer literally every gameday
2 Take Quick to LyLo
3 ??????????
4 Profit

He might know he can't get away with it this game, but lolhammering the L-1 on Unreal is very much something he'd do as scum and not as town.

[Sando]

then why arent u seeing the easy solution to this game

go ahead an L-1 unreal and let not_mafia show up and lolhammer

a) We've poisoned the well by having to talk this through so much and so deeply, he's not going to lolhammer through my "lol NM if you lolhammer you're clearly scum", so the clear doesn't mean much anymore. He's a troll, he's not an idiot, it's not like he's obligated to write the lolhammer if the opportunity presents, he has agency.
b) his trolling is different from the scumgame I just linked
c) Manatee already put Unreal to L-1 and NM didn't lolhammer
d) Lolhammer on a possible PR is a terrible way (risk/waste) to out scum

[Sando]

k

so how do we figure out n_m alignment?

What's this "we", I already TR NM, I'm giving you info to help you come to a conclusion, go read his other games.

[Sando]

would you say not_mafia is accurate with his reads?

Not particularly, no. He's maybe a bit better than average with his reads as town, but that's not saying much on MS.

[Sando]

@Korina I'm voting Ejj not AP.

Fixed
-Kor

[Sando]

VOTE: not_mafia

ur a manipulative son of a bitch

Bets on his response being "lol"

[Sando]

A. If you feel that scum didn't bus MM, and you're pinning me as SK, what does that make Not_Mafia, who voted MM before I did?

Oka literally cannot handle the idea that there's multiple scum, as I talked about in 448. Oka has ignored this point for a while now.

[Sando]

Wanna respond to 397 there Seal?

[Sando]

oww that hurts

So you're just going to...keep ignoring it?

So the basis of your plan here Oka is to sheep someone you complain is completely unreadable, and when that persons target flips town, claim vindication and lynch the person you were sheeping? All the while ignoring actual content, directed at you or otherwise.

As you're so keen of asking, please, explain to me the town rationale behind that?

[Sando]

im pretty sure im voting not_mafia rn, ive answered questions directed at me, but nice try

I literally just linked to a post from you that you ignored and instead responded with "ow that hurts".

VOTE: Okapoka

[Sando]

i was just going to sheep not_mafia until he was wrong at the time
and then lynch him

so logically speaking if u flipped red, n_m wagons up another who flips green then id scumread n_m

Bullshit, you're moving the goalposts:

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and

if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi

?

want to try out this experiment

[Sando]

@Sando my response is that in what

world is abandoning a rising wagon (Oka) to put a vote on someone who most people have as a TR

(AP) a safe play.

why would any scum pass up that opportunity. Italicized the keyword there

Oka wagon is pretty fucking awful btw

, scum do not put themselves out like this and lead the discussion this much

I mean you're pretty much answering your own question here...

[Sando]

Seriously?

People are held to account for wagons that take off, you're saying in your post that you're holding the Oka wagon people to account.

[Sando]

in what world is dropping a rising wagon to vote a popular TR based on gut, then hard-defending the victim of said wagon a safe play for scum to make.

the answer is it fucking isn't, because all scum really has to do is votepark and then lurk while their target is mislynched.

explain to me what I have to gain from defending Oka.

Where's the "hard-defence"? All I see is "I don't think anti-town tunnels NM this much" and "I don't like the wagon".

Are you seriously trying to argue that scum never gain from TRing a townie? Top tip, he's currently voting the same person you are...you're not seriously daft enough to not understand buddying, you seem to be doing it fairly well here.

[Sando]

in what world is dropping a rising wagon to vote a popular TR based on gut, then hard-defending the victim of said wagon a safe play for scum to make.

Based on gut? You literally said in both votes that you don't have any scumreads. In what world is that NOT trying to "play it safe"?

[Sando]

and before you say you actually wanted me to followup on 448

Jesus H Christ:

Oka literally cannot handle the idea that there's multiple scum, as I talked about in 448. Oka has ignored this point for a while now.

Followed THE VERY NEXT POST BY

oww that hurts

Apparently "In What World" is the format for our discussions.

So, in what world is that not me saying you should probably follow up?

Are you saying there's a statute of limitations on me following up?

you accuse me of ignoring 448, but at the time you didnt want me to followup. i believed it was all clarified because of my revising posts of the strategy of the time, which mind you occurred before 448. i mean i guess i ignored 448 to the same extent of me saying "the sky is blue" and then you asking "what color is the sky" and then i dont respond.

I think my head just exploded from the stupid.

I've had 2 points on you:
1) You assumed there can only be 1 scum within 2 people - only scum make sense for "knowing" this.
2) Your plan around NM sheeping is scummy AF

Answering (2), badly I might add, in no way addresses (1). You also just said you'd stop following NM...you didn't say you'd lynch him. Which, might I add, is scummy AF anyway!

A game where NM hammered me, and we were both town, literally just finished, your plan is flat out scummy.

[Sando]

9. Sando - unreadable

VOTE: sando

Spoiler: have fun reading this wall of ramblings

this is incentive for sando to respond to me:

Would you say this timeline is correct sando?
I say one of not_mafia or sando is probably maf.

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi?

want to try out this experiment

ur response:

Other scum could be anyone.

Don't know, don't care rn. Maybe it is seal, I just think not_mafia is a much superior lynch than seal today.

So you acknowledge you're considering the "other scum", which is a different faction than whatever scum you think (thought) NM is, then:

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi?

You assume a binary outcome here, red+red is flat out not an option for you in this scenario? Why not?

saying that im assuming too much. im not considering the very possibility of n_m and sando scum

fine:

i revise my strategy

Other scum could be anyone.

Don't know, don't care rn. Maybe it is seal, I just think not_mafia is a much superior lynch than seal today.

So you acknowledge you're considering the "other scum", which is a different faction than whatever scum you think (thought) NM is, then:

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi?

You assume a binary outcome here, red+red is flat out not an option for you in this scenario? Why not?

one maf is dead
that means
there is either sk left
maf left
or sk and maf left

so yeah

and to the other point:
if you flip red and game isnt over and not_mafia isnt dead
we keep sheeping him until he is wrong

this isnt a ridiculous strategy join the train

because not_mafia is an omniscient mafia genius who needs no explanation

ill sheep until not_mafia is wrong

IMPLYING THAT BOTH OF YOU CAN BE SCUM

you at the time, respond with

okay

so when you say im acknowledging other scum as another faction then that is a given right?

I'm saying that in your Sando vs NM post you've assumed that only one of us can flip scum. The only people who can assume that (other than me and NM obviously) are:

Scum (either Mafia or SK)
GS with an inno on one of the 2 - that's not true here, you'd be pushing your inno and I can't see a gambit/trap from you here
Vig with a guilty elsewhere - that's not true here, and even if true you can't be 100%
Vig who ate Blackstar!Mafia - somehow I doubt that...

So given I can't see any logical town rational for your assumption+play, that only leaves scum in that list.

okay, that is a fair analysis of my pre-revised plan. maybe you are responding to that, i don't know. we continue to talk about meta and not _mafia and you dont spam me to follow up, so i assume you got my implication was just trying to clarify your own position.



then out of left field

A. If you feel that scum didn't bus MM, and you're pinning me as SK, what does that make Not_Mafia, who voted MM before I did?

Oka literally cannot handle the idea that there's multiple scum, as I talked about in 448. Oka has ignored this point for a while now.

but i already told you that ill sheep not_mafia until he is wrong. which means if you flip scum and our next n_m lynch flips town then we lynch not_mafia. therefore implying that yes, both of you can be scum.

oww that hurts

So you're just going to...keep ignoring it?

So the basis of your plan here Oka is to sheep someone you complain is completely unreadable, and when that persons target flips town, claim vindication and lynch the person you were sheeping? All the while ignoring actual content, directed at you or otherwise.

As you're so keen of asking, please, explain to me the town rationale behind that?

wow that is a serious bundle of outdated stuff. i had already revised my plan, i was no longer doing the sheep not_mafia strategy. i answered the questions directed at me, in fact im generating the content here.

im pretty sure im voting not_mafia rn, ive answered questions directed at me, but nice try

I literally just linked to a post from you that you ignored and instead responded with "ow that hurts".

VOTE: Okapoka

and then this.
you accuse me of ignoring 448, but at the time you didnt want me to followup. i believed it was all clarified because of my revising posts of the strategy of the time, which mind you occurred before 448. i mean i guess i ignored 448 to the same extent of me saying "the sky is blue" and then you asking "what color is the sky" and then i dont respond. I literally preemptively answered your question, which i didnt even know was a question at the time, but if it was then i already answered it. i modified my plan due to your criticisms, which should have been obvious because you were still conversing with me.

i was just going to sheep not_mafia until he was wrong at the time
and then lynch him

so logically speaking if u flipped red, n_m wagons up another who flips green then id scumread n_m

Bullshit, you're moving the goalposts:

okay so if sando flips town we lynch not_mafia and

if sando flips scum not_mafia is a good boi

?

want to try out this experiment

lmao
yes the plan was modified or "the goalposts were moved" but that was with your input.
if we reread 448 with context, it does not seem like you are trying to call me out anymore on not considering a n_m + sando scum, but if you were, i already answered the question BEFORE YOU CALLED ME OUT ON IT.
BEFORE
BEFORE
BEFORE


anything i miss?


pedit:
and before you say you actually wanted me to followup on 448

is there a difference between scum not_mafia and town not_mafia that we can find?

Here's a scumgame I played with him (I was town to his scum): viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812

Here's his description of his play:

1 Quickhammer literally every gameday
2 Take Quick to LyLo
3 ??????????
4 Profit

He might know he can't get away with it this game, but lolhammering the L-1 on Unreal is very much something he'd do as scum and not as town.

then why arent u seeing the easy solution to this game

go ahead an L-1 unreal and let not_mafia show up and lolhammer

a) We've poisoned the well by having to talk this through so much and so deeply, he's not going to lolhammer through my "lol NM if you lolhammer you're clearly scum", so the clear doesn't mean much anymore. He's a troll, he's not an idiot, it's not like he's obligated to write the lolhammer if the opportunity presents, he has agency.
b) his trolling is different from the scumgame I just linked
c) Manatee already put Unreal to L-1 and NM didn't lolhammer
d) Lolhammer on a possible PR is a terrible way (risk/waste) to out scum

k

so how do we figure out n_m alignment?

What's this "we", I already TR NM, I'm giving you info to help you come to a conclusion, go read his other games.

would you say not_mafia is accurate with his reads?

Not particularly, no. He's maybe a bit better than average with his reads as town, but that's not saying much on MS.

@Korina I'm voting Ejj not AP.

Fixed
-Kor

VOTE: not_mafia

ur a manipulative son of a bitch

Bets on his response being "lol"

thats 6 posts over the course of more than a day without any indication of you wanting me to answer anything

but as soon as lucky and skygazer forms a wagon

your very next post is

A. If you feel that scum didn't bus MM, and you're pinning me as SK, what does that make Not_Mafia, who voted MM before I did?

Oka literally cannot handle the idea that there's multiple scum, as I talked about in 448. Oka has ignored this point for a while now.

now you want me to followup. now suddenly i cannot consider multiple scum.

Something changed between these two posts...I wonder what it could be

[Sando]

did u even read my post

I think I read it more carefully than you:

You also just said you'd stop following NM...you didn't say you'd lynch him.

and to the other point:
if you flip red and game isnt over and not_mafia isnt dead

we keep sheeping him until he is wrong

this isnt a ridiculous strategy join the train

because not_mafia is an omniscient mafia genius who needs no explanation

Not sure why the only options are "sheep" or "lynch", or how you expect me to think that, given it's udderly ridiculous.

[Sando]

and you are purposely ignoring my intent of sheeping not_mafia at the time

my purpose was to get you to flip town so we could finally end not_mafia

because not_mafia was my only scumread and i was willing to sacrifice players for it

What the actual fuck...

[Sando]

so why the fuck would i sheep the only scumread i had?

Because it's stupid? This is why your plan is (was) scummy AF:

A game where NM hammered me, and we were both town, literally just finished, your plan is flat out scummy.

[Sando]

and do you know what frustrates me most

is that nobody was even commenting on the lunacy of voting sando here

VOTE: sando

zero

WHAT?! That's literally what this entire conversation is about, how stupid it is to:
a) Sheep your own SR read
b) Promise to just keep lynching along that sheep-line until they get it wrong and then lynch them.

[Sando]

because not_mafia is an omniscient mafia genius who needs no explanation

Are you just trolling because you're annoyed at people not agreeing with you on NM?

I also asked you here if this was just you trolling.

[Sando]

so i decided to prove a point by being an absolute lunatic by essentially turning not_mafia into a double vote and promising to blindly sheep him until he is wrong

Ok, I'm gonna have one last try at reason here before I PTFO.

The only win you're going for here is to punish bad/annoying play and hopefully make that person (NM) change his ways. That's perfectly understandable, and reasonable,

and 100% not going to work

. 5-6 people have all independently expressed that they have experienced this from NM regularly in the past, which should tell you one thing for an absolute certainty, that he's not going to change.

Everyone you're arguing with here has varying levels of experience with NM, and we all know one thing, that's NM and he's not going to change.

I personally think he's town and I know I'm town, I'm not about to sign up or support something by you to mislynch two days in a row just to teach NM a lesson that I also am very confident he won't learn.

[Sando]

Goddammit all to hell. Oka I legit can't tell anymore if you're being scummy or if you're just being an ass this game. All of this theater just to prove a point is distracting from the game elsewhere. Nobody cares about nm today. Doesn't mean nobody will care tomorrow.

Ok so my problem with Oka is that in Newbie 1873 we had an un-CC'd cop with an inno and instead of following the cop Oka decided to go off the deep-end with conspiracy theories about the cop lying, despite the fact that the real cop CCing would 100% win the game for town. Here, with someone who he legit thinks is scum, he thinks the best option is to sheep that person into a mislynch so he's got a slightly stronger case...

So when he's town and struggling for a read in 1873 he flails at the basically confirmed PR, but when he's struggling for a read here he decides to sheep his SR.

I just don't see those coming from the same person+alignment.

[Sando]

Manatee I though maybe you had more. I already responded to your sando post in 357. I asked if i was missing something and i don't think you ever responded.

Thoughts on newbie game Oka vs this game Oka? Per 594

[Sando]

newbie game Oka?

A newbie game that I played with Oka/Otter (and CJ) where Oka was town and I feel was acting quite differently to now.

[Sando]

what are the chances that this is completely on accident, and he hammered his scum partner?

Completely by accident - maybe
Hammered his partner - maybe
Both - Nah

He either accidentally hammered as town or deliberately did it as partner for dat cred.

[Sando]

For clarity, what scenario do you believe to be most likely?

In isolation, not sure, but I think Mana is town (although the lazy drop onto my wagon despite pushback against his case isn't great), so I'm assuming accidental at the moment.

[Sando]

unrealseal might be scum but I don't really understand the wagon against him. I dislike how he seems to be reactive rather than proactive but I'm still pondering why he didn't vote me, it was an easy out for him to prevent his lynch.

I mean not to make it all about me...but isn't his vote on me in practicality the same thing as a vote on you? I'm not sure if me and you were equal or not, lots of votes flying around, but me and you were (are) the viable counter-wagons to Unreal.

I disagree with you on the townies, I think AP, CJ, Otter and NM are very likely town, and I think Mana is less townie but also a probable. Eragon is an unknown for me, so I like your questioning there, but the others I'm not willing to lynch today.

That leaves me with Oka/Unreal as my favourites for today, and Skygazer (based on Ejj's play) and Eragon my outside picks.

It's my GFs birthday today and I'll be VLA from late today maybe through to EOD. Around for the next few hours though.

[Sando]

Day 2 deadline is in 4 days, 1 hour, 36 minutes

Oh I misread this before, I'll be back before this.

[Sando]

wait that means n_m was vigi? or VT? the fuck

does this mean not_mafia was actually the omniscient messiah the mafia community has been waiting for this entire time?

So yeah, NM was Vig. What happened from my pov:

Tried to eat Ejj overnight
Manatee came in with the complete 180 on me D2 which convinced me he was GS with a guilty
Eragon is completely right about my first post D2, I saw the manatee post and wanted to get ahead of it with a soft vig claim. Idea was to get through today with no claims, eat Ejj overnight who would hopefully kill either the GS or the Vig, prefereably the Vig.
NM presumably saw my soft-claim and decided to hard push me, as he should
Dunno why NM didn't shoot Sky overnight, but damage done, town win

[Sando]

@not_mafia, how?

Because he saw my soft vig claim and as vig knew I was lying and therefore Mafia.

[Sando]

The game ends here... I'm manually hammering Skygazer.

Flip right now...

Thanks for modding Korina! Sorry I basically ended the game effectively with my first post D2

[Sando]

wait u soft claimed vig?

234 was me setting up the vig claim yeah.

[Sando]

Nah, that was fine. I'd have done the exact same thing, except at L-1, just flatout say that Ejji/Sky is SK.

I did not expect to be lynched while VLA

Sky would you have killed me if I was alive. If not, my plan would have worked pretty well I think

[Sando]

alright manatee why u trolling with that vt claim

Turns out I was right about Mana being GS but he didn't have a guilty on me

[Sando]

Hmm that's a tough call. I was torn between you and NM up until your lynch. Either way I think I was screwed after night one

Yeah I had the vig as an out and could point to the SK, you really had nowhere to go. As I said in dead thread, town mislynching yesterday probably ended the game earlier in N2 cause me and you crosskill

[Sando]

My thought during N1 was that if Sando lived longer, and didn't slip horribly, you'd be safe from harm, SK gets another kill, then N3, you kill SK.

If Mana hadn't made me think he had a guilty on me I wouldn't have soft-claimed, and potentially even left Ejj/Sky alive as well.

[Sando]

Mana's D2 on me was just so weird, I thought it had to be a GS guilty. Does a complete 180 on me, then posts his case and has it shot down by 2-3 people, then just...votes me.