Micro 815: Greatest Idea - Game Over

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Post by Ircher »

VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #8 (isolation #1) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

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Not_Mafia, are you town?
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Post Post #10 (isolation #2) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:28 pm

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Are you joking? (Serious question.)
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Post Post #12 (isolation #3) » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:41 pm

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Fair enough.
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Post Post #25 (isolation #4) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Ircher »

This game is like..... Super slow......
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Post Post #26 (isolation #5) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:19 am

Post by Ircher »

Okay, since this game isn't going anywhere....

Out of {Not_Mafia, Hiraki, RadiantCowbells}, who do you want gone the most at the moment?
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Post Post #37 (isolation #6) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 29, ceejayvinoya wrote:@Ircher I'm curious. Why bodyguard for discard?
I drew three town cards. Bodyguard isn't that great tbqh.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #7) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 36, guacamole wrote:
In post 26, Ircher wrote: Out of {Not_Mafia, Hiraki, RadiantCowbells}, who do you want gone the most at the moment?
Curious why you chose these 3 to focus on for your question.
Not_Mafia because they can be annoying to read at times. But I find the discard townie, so......
Hiraki because their discard doesn't really feel that town-motivated.
RadiantCowbells because they can occasionally be very annoying person to work with.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #8) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:28 pm

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The next person to post (other than the mod) scum-claims.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #9) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:45 pm

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In post 39, Ircher wrote:The next person to post (other than the mod or Not_Mafia) scum-claims.
EBWOP.
(An exclusion is made for Not_Mafia because they would post just to foil this.)
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Post Post #44 (isolation #10) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:23 pm

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Kill: LaserGuy
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Post Post #45 (isolation #11) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:24 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 42, LaserGuy wrote:
In post 39, Ircher wrote:The next person to post (other than the mod) scum-claims.
In post 41, Ircher wrote:
In post 39, Ircher wrote:The next person to post (other than the mod or Not_Mafia) scum-claims.
EBWOP.
(An exclusion is made for Not_Mafia because they would post just to foil this.)
So, this is you claiming scum?
Bye bye scum; you knew what I meant.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #12) » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:17 pm

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That went well, much better than I expected.
I like the CJ case and townread RC so:
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Post Post #68 (isolation #13) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:11 am

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VOTE: Guacomole

That isn't getting us anywhere.
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Post Post #73 (isolation #14) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:30 am

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In post 69, RadiantCowbells wrote:okay so it's pretty useless, i agree

why is it scum

why are we not powerlynching NM who is basically confirmed scum
I honestly don't think NM is scum here. Or at the very least, his discard indicates he isn't as likely to be scum.
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Post Post #76 (isolation #15) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:31 am

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In post 72, RadiantCowbells wrote:N_M has an ultraconsistent record of picking scum in these games

he is confirmed to have had the option of picking scum

he
never
decides that the game with me is the game to start randomly picking town

why is this being ignored in favor of a wagon on someone who is obviously town?
How is Guac obviously town.

Also, I'm pretty much confirmed not alien as it makes very little sense for me to shoot my 1-shot unlynchable alien partner.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #16) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:31 am

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Okay, if we lynch Not_mafia and he flips town, then what?
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Post Post #80 (isolation #17) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:32 am

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Radiant, why are you so upset right now?
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Post Post #83 (isolation #18) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:35 am

Post by Ircher »

I feel like there are other people who are more likely scum than Not_Mafia right now.

But again, if Not_Mafia flips town, then what?
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Post Post #85 (isolation #19) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:37 am

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If you are wrong about this, I think we'll lynch you next.....

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Post Post #86 (isolation #20) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:38 am

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In post 79, RadiantCowbells wrote:so fucking what you're confirmed not alien, it's the least likely faction

and why as town would you feel the need to point out that you're confirmed not alien
Intuition suggests there may be another alien (though probability suggests the opposite).
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Post Post #87 (isolation #21) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:45 am

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In post 70, brassherald wrote:PEDIT: I think N_M let out his town tell.
(What exactly would that be?)
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Post Post #88 (isolation #22) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:49 am

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Okay, so for the night:

Cop checks Radiant.
Protection goes on either Radiant or me.
Roleblocker can do as they please.
Everyone else can do as they please.
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Post Post #89 (isolation #23) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:50 am

Post by Ircher »

Meanwhile, we lynch someone (maybe Not_mafia.... it will keep Radiant quiet for the time being....) and hope the game isn't over then and there.
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Post Post #91 (isolation #24) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:53 am

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Not_Mafia is already hard to read because he barely does anything as either alignment. But yeah, that was part of the reason for my townread on them (that is, their interaction at the beginning of the game, not necessarily the tell you just mentioned.)
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Post Post #93 (isolation #25) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:58 am

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It doesn't clear them, but 1) by virtue of discarding a mafia card, they are less likely to be mafia 2) reflexive doctor is a really good role to claim actually---it isn't really a useful role for scum. He could've gotten a better card, but he still would've had to get a second mafia card.

As for Guac--his setup speccing is useless, and IIoA.
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Post Post #96 (isolation #26) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:19 am

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Why Hiraki specifically?

Plus, you asked for "someone" to explain it which two of us have done. So again, why do you feel the need to
specifically
ask Hiraki now?
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Post Post #114 (isolation #27) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by Ircher »

Why Hiraki is Scum:


1. In :
Hiraki wrote:Sorry. I wanted to do Mason. I just didn't think that it was reasonably possible for others to draw it.
(In response to Not_Mafia's vote in ): While it is not unreasonable to presume that Not_Mafia's vote is directly related to Hiraki's discard, there really is zero point to make this fact obvious and try to defend oneself. The way I see it is this is scum!Hiraki trying to get suspicion off their back.
Hiraki wrote:One of Gemini and guac is scum btw. Willing to bet money on that.
This is an interesting statement considering that none of the roles in this game have a Night 0 action that lets you *know* someone is scum. Now, as for scum motivation, scum!Hiraki is basically employing WIFOM here: either both of them are town (and he knows that), so he wants town to chain-mislynch one after the other after his death OR one of them is his scumbuddy, and he wants town to NOT lynch in them under the WIFOM argument of the first case.

2. In :
Hiraki wrote:Which one is the partner!
(In response to LaserGuy's where Laser asks for Hiraki to explain): This is a complete evasion of answering the posed question and gives zero additional information. Scum!Hiraki here wants people to ignore his earlier statement as being unimportant and not related to his alignment (or the alignment of the people he named.) I.e.: Hiraki wants to avoid accountability for that statement.

3. In :
Hiraki wrote:Willing to put N_M in the not Alien jar.
Under what logical basis is Hiraki making this statement? There is no reason to think Not_Mafia isn't alien; absolutely positively zero reasoning. If we presume Not_Mafia is scum though (which Radiant makes the meta argument that this is the case), then in all likelihood, this is scum!Hiraki white-knighting (this is a misuse of terminology) their scumbuddy Not_Mafia in a subtle way.
Hiraki wrote:This is just bad talking in general. Most of Laser's play is very readable as "I know what I'm saying" and "I'm bullshitting"
(While referencing ): This is a useless post (especially considering I had already vigged Laser by this point) that is scum looking like they are doing something.

4. In :
Hiraki wrote:Yeah, I'm with RC here. I hate that wagon speed and I hate the reasons that others joined it. I joined it because Gemini/Guac seems like one of them is ayylmao.
This is scum!Hiraki trying to pocket/please Radiant. The wording helps Hiraki's case zero--it just makes me even more inclined to think that scum!Hiraki is saying this just to get Radiant to townread them.
Hiraki wrote:This is the worst vote of the game, hands down.
(Referring to my vote in ): Considering that you were voting Guacomole at the time, you really can't say my vote is the worst vote of the game without at least elaborating. This is scum!Hiraki throwing shade.
Hiraki wrote:This is a little better but not great. I don't get why you say "I think he did something!" without highlighting it when the person clearly doesn't see that.
(Referring to Brass's vote in ): What do you expect at this point? A 20-point scumcase on a person? Because that's basically what you are asking for. Also, if we want to be fair, brass's vote is marginally better than mine vote as the basic reasoning is the same--brass simply goes into much greater depth than me.
Hiraki wrote:I'm gonna vote you real quick if you keep this garbage up
(While quoting my ): This is simply uncalled for and feels like scum that is just trying to find ways to scumread me.
Hiraki wrote:I want him first.
Clarify what you mean by "him". Do you mean me or RadiantCowbells (or Not_Mafia)?
Hiraki wrote:to be clear I don't even have a read on N_M, I think RC is being a little grabby (which tbh is OK for N_M) but Ircher is just not playing town here.
The first two-thirds of this statement are okay, but you really haven't explained (or tried to explain) how I am "not playing town here". As far as I can tell, your reasons amount to 1) making what you consider "the worst vote of the game, hands down" (which isn't extremely alignment-indicative) and 2) doing stuff that you dislike (from a non-alignment-indicative stance) and/or simply consider to be "bad play" (but you have made no indication that said play is scum play--even with your "not playing town here" statement, you aren't really stating I am scum but rather I am doing bad things or "anti-town" things.) This to me is a tell-tell sign of scum trying to get a mislynch on an easier-to-lynch player.
Hiraki wrote:I read it on the basis that I knew what N_M was thinking. I don't know where you got that moontheory.
(In response to by Guacomole): This is again a non-answer to the question being asked. In particular, I don't think the quoted part of Guacomole's post had anything to do with the part where you state why you discarded mason (which I presume Not_Mafia voted you for). I also see zero connection between one of Guac and Gemini being scum and Not_Mafia's content in the game so far. You call it a "moontheory", but in reality, it is you who is making stuff and misrepresenting/misinterpreting stuff so as to fit your scum narrative.

VOTE: Hiraki
This needs to die.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #28) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:08 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 113, guacamole wrote:Clarification: I meant this part of 16 in my question.
In post 16, Hiraki wrote: One of Gemini and guac is scum btw. Willing to bet money on that.
I interpreted the same way that you did.
While it is possible that Hiraki misread, I think the chances are next to zero since you specifically mentioned the Alien discards (which has zero relevance to by Not_Mafia). In other words, I think Hiraki purposefully chose to "misread" your question.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #29) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:17 pm

Post by Ircher »

I will hammer if the wagon reaches L-1, otherwise, I am pushing Hiraki for all of his bad posts.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #30) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:05 pm

Post by Ircher »

“Which one is the partner!” says absolutely nothing about your bet.
The part of your post 54 that you just quoted deals 100% with your decision to discard mason, which again, has zero relevance to your initial bet concerning Guacomole/Gemini.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #31) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:11 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 118, Hiraki wrote:Do I really need to respond to Ircher? Does anyone really believe anything he just said? I wrote something up and I couldn't believe it. Everything he said was just flatout bullshit. Here were some highlights because it was getting too complicated. Usually I admit to some fallacies in my logic but MAN, there's just nothing solid there.

1) Ircher complained that I did not respond to Laser's question after Ircher killed him.
2) Ircher complained that I did not talk about my Guac/Gemini post. He also decided to quote the same post where I did that but skipped the part where I talked about it. Go figure! Must be a coincidence!
3) Ircher believes that his own opinion of the game is also my opinion of the game, regarding Laser and N_M.
4) Ircher just happened to believe that I was scum after I voted him. Just a coincidence!
1) The question was asked very early. Regardless, this is a non-point.
2) Because you didn’t and continue to show that you didn’t. Only recently did you explain it after Guacomole Meade it very explicit and clear what they wanted.
3) Proof/Elaborate here please.
4) Yes, it’s directly related to the fact you voted me. Why? Because your case on me is awful and is at best as good as mine on you. Please tell me how this is significantly indicative of my alignment.

Pedit: That still doesn’t explain much. Again, multiple people wanted to know why you stated you bet at least one of them is scum.
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Post Post #127 (isolation #32) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:13 pm

Post by Ircher »

To be clear, in 54, it looked like you were simply answering Gemini’s question about you discarding mason, and this, one cannot *reasonably* that there is a connection between the quote and your Guacomole vote.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #33) » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:14 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 127, Ircher wrote:To be clear, in 54, it looked like you were simply answering Gemini’s question about you discarding mason, and this, one cannot *reasonably* presume that there is a connection between the quote and your Guacomole vote.
ENWOP
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Post Post #153 (isolation #34) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:20 am

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Intent to hammer
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Post Post #155 (isolation #35) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:50 pm

Post by Ircher »

(expired on 2018-07-19 21:50:26) before I hammer.

Speak now, or forever hold your peace.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #36) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:57 pm

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Reads? (You mentioned Ceejay is obvscum.... Why?)
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Post Post #158 (isolation #37) » Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:03 pm

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VOTE: Not_Mafia
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Post Post #167 (isolation #38) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 12:11 am

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VOTE: Hiraki
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Post Post #171 (isolation #39) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:36 am

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In post 168, brassherald wrote:By the way, I'm town Roleblocker, guess who I blocked last night.
Ah, I see...... You didn’t need to claim.
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Post Post #244 (isolation #40) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:46 pm

Post by Ircher »

Looks like stuff happened...
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Post Post #245 (isolation #41) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:47 pm

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In post 173, RadiantCowbells wrote:claim your roleblock in advance please
Why is this s good idea?
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Post Post #246 (isolation #42) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:52 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 180, Hiraki wrote:I'm JOAT. I investigated brassherald and got a result of NOT MAFIA. I can reveal my other abilities if necessary but would rather keep them secret for survival purposes. I'm glad that I checked you now. Can we actually get on with the game and lynch real scum?
In post 182, Hiraki wrote:Actually, brass is prob alien and Ircher is 100% scum here. The fact that Gemini just claimed intent without even thinking about my claim switches her back into the null pile for sure.
In post 183, Hiraki wrote:Actually nah, Gemini can't be scum because assuming 2 scum, that would be auto-win. Still not OK with whatever magic power brassherald thinks he has which is why I called him alien above, even without balancing in mind.

Vote: Ircher
This honestly sounds like desperate scum. You are claiming that there are multiple scum factions which means we have TWO unaccounted shots. (Radiant’s Vig shot is believable.)
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Post Post #247 (isolation #43) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:54 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 197, guacamole wrote:No answer on the massclaim question?

Do you think it will help?
Of course it would give scum a chance to claim something too.
Can I get an answer on this?


There can be as few as 1 antitown role left, if it's an alien.
Or there would need to be 2 mafia.
The most there can be is 2. 2 mafia, 1 alien 1 mafia, 1 alien 1 3p.
Doubtful there is both an alien and mafia with one flip claimed already -- if there is then Hiraki is one of them.
Why are all of you (except Radiant) discounting the possibility of Werewolves?
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Post Post #248 (isolation #44) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:55 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 203, GeminiTwin12 wrote:You were, I protected RC last night.
In post 204, guacamole wrote:That's funny, I'm a town doc too. I saved RC.
Conspiracy Theory : Scum together?
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Post Post #251 (isolation #45) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:00 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 212, guacamole wrote:I think the most likely solution is that brass is alien.
Hiraki's cop would get "not mafia" in that case.

If brass is not alien, then most likely case is Hiraki and Ircher are mafia.

Also possible that Gemini saw the crumb and fakeclaimed doc but I consider that the least likely scenario. Gemini would have had to have two alien cards to still be alien. Gemini mafia fakeclaiming is possible but the 1:1 isn't a good scenario for mafia.
No.

Radiant is pretty much conf!town at this point. That’s a fact.

We also have a 1v1 in Hiraki and Brass. At least one of them is scum (and most likely, it’s Alien.)
We appear to have two town doctors as well. If that is the case, the two of you can just cross-protect and we are guaranteed a win by lynching Hiraki and Brass.

Obviously, I’m 1-Shot Day Vig and I shot Laser, so I can’t be Alien. That said, it’s more likely I am a Town day vig than it is that we have two town doctors.
Pedit: I was like 99% sure it did.

Also, UNVOTE:
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Post Post #252 (isolation #46) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:02 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 218, brassherald wrote:UNVOTE:

For the time being. I feel like the mod error was probably my roleblock was not applied, I'm seeing if I can get mod confirmation on that, but, in that case, Hiraki is not lying and my night 1 information goes out the window.
I can agree with that.

In that case, we conclude that RC got targeted for the kill. No lynching may be good, but I am not against still lynching Hiraki for general scum behavior.
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Post Post #254 (isolation #47) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:09 pm

Post by Ircher »

How many scum are we thinking are left?

Obviously, if it’s just 1 Alien, I think Town is guaranteed a win. (Even with two left which is *very* unlikely, I think Town still has a high chance of winning.)

Perhaps we should out our other card as well?
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Post Post #255 (isolation #48) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:22 pm

Post by Ircher »

Ok, I want to townbloc Radiant, Brass, and myself.

That leaves Hiraki, Guacomole, and Gemini. I think best move from there is to lynch Hiraki and let the doctors resolve themselves at night. (In particular, they should cross-protect.)

If a doctor dies, the other is almost guaranteed to be scum.
If someone else gets killed, we Lynch within the doctors tomorrow. If no kill happens, we Lynch between Brass and myself.

Brass should roleblock either me or no one. (A non-kill however does not incriminate.
——

Alternatively, we no lynch with doctors cross-protecting and Brass roleblocking Hiraki again.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #49) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:23 pm

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Actually, if no kill happens, perhaps we should go for Happily Ever After. That incentivized scum to kill if they can.
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Post Post #261 (isolation #50) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 259, GeminiTwin12 wrote:If Brass blocks Hiraki again, how will we know that there wasn't a NK because of the roleblock or because someone was protected?
We don't of course. But we can potentially force Happily Ever After in that case; plus most likely, scum are not going to shoot in the doctors.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #51) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:14 am

Post by Ircher »

I had:
Town Ascetic
Town 1-Shot Dayvig
Town Bodyguard
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Post Post #272 (isolation #52) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:57 am

Post by Ircher »

It’s better than losing.
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Post Post #274 (isolation #53) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:40 am

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VOTE: Guacomole
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Post Post #275 (isolation #54) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:42 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 266, Hiraki wrote:
In post 246, Ircher wrote:
In post 180, Hiraki wrote:I'm JOAT. I investigated brassherald and got a result of NOT MAFIA. I can reveal my other abilities if necessary but would rather keep them secret for survival purposes. I'm glad that I checked you now. Can we actually get on with the game and lynch real scum?
In post 182, Hiraki wrote:Actually, brass is prob alien and Ircher is 100% scum here. The fact that Gemini just claimed intent without even thinking about my claim switches her back into the null pile for sure.
In post 183, Hiraki wrote:Actually nah, Gemini can't be scum because assuming 2 scum, that would be auto-win. Still not OK with whatever magic power brassherald thinks he has which is why I called him alien above, even without balancing in mind.

Vote: Ircher
This honestly sounds like desperate scum. You are claiming that there are multiple scum factions which means we have TWO unaccounted shots. (Radiant’s Vig shot is believable.)
This is the third time Ircher has taken my posts completely out of context. Why am I the only one who sees this?
What context am I failing to consider here?
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Post Post #277 (isolation #55) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:02 am

Post by Ircher »

Someone hammer Guacomole.
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Post Post #283 (isolation #56) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:54 am

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I'm really leaning toward it being either Guacomole or Hiraki at this point.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #57) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:08 pm

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In post 286, guacamole wrote:If you want to persist in the outrageous idea that I had two alien cards or am mafia who discarded a psychotrooper, then town is beyond hope.
So you think the last scum is Alien!Hiraki?
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Post Post #288 (isolation #58) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:11 pm

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Brass, what are we thinking here?
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Post Post #289 (isolation #59) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:16 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 265, GeminiTwin12 wrote:I'll go first: Mason Lover
You are going to have to clarify this.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #60) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:17 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 289, Ircher wrote:
In post 265, GeminiTwin12 wrote:I'll go first: Mason Lover
You are going to have to clarify this.
Oh, okay, so you had Town Doctor, Town Mason Lover (what a weird card), and Alien Vanillaizer.
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Post Post #291 (isolation #61) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:20 pm

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UNVOTE:
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Post Post #292 (isolation #62) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Ircher »

Brassherald blocks Hiraki.
Hiraki blocks Brassherald.
Gemini and Guacomole cross-protect.

We cannot afford a mislynch because there may still be two scum at large.
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Post Post #295 (isolation #63) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:50 pm

Post by Ircher »

I can’t be Alien.
Based on the doc claims, Radiant is either scum by themselves, scum with Brass, or town.
UNVOTE:

Also, we still need Hiraki to claim their third card.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #64) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:54 pm

Post by Ircher »

Are we thinking 1 scum or two scum left? Like, that would help out a lot.

(In particular, if it is just one Alien left, I think the game will more or less solve itself.)
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Post Post #299 (isolation #65) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:24 pm

Post by Ircher »

That’s not “failing to note context” —> You made the post beforehand and that’s what I thought about the post when I first encountered it... Before I read about the mod mistake.

That said, it does look better now than it did then due to the mod mistake.
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Post Post #301 (isolation #66) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:32 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 300, Hiraki wrote:IRCHER IS NOT THIS DUMB AS TOWN
I would say you aren't this naive either.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #67) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:33 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 300, Hiraki wrote:HOW DID YOU NOT READ THE GAME BEFORE POSTING? *******
It's called reading in chronological order and responding as it came up. Your post come before the mod post; thus, I responded to it before I saw the mod post.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #68) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:43 pm

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In post 160, Hiraki wrote:Tell me what townie hammers someone without asking for a claim? Only dumb ones and Ircher aint that dumb.
This is blatantly false by the way. Not_Mafia had multiple opportunities to claim, and I declared intent not once, but twice actually.
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Post Post #311 (isolation #69) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:53 pm

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The following is what has been claimed about the setup:

Ircher: Town 1-Shot Dayvig ; Shot LaserGuy (Alien) day 1
- Town Ascetic
- Town 1-Shot Dayvig
- Town Bodyguard (Discarded)

GeminiTwin12: Town Doctor ; Protected RadiantCowbells night 1
- Town Doctor (?)
- Town Mason Lover
- Alien Vanillaizer (Discarded)

Guacomole: Town Doctor ; Protected RadiantCowbells night 1
- Mafia Doctor
- Town Nurse
- Alien Pyschotrooper (Discarded)

RadiantCowbells: Town 1-Shot Vigilante ; Shot Ceejayvinoya (Survivor) night 1
- Town Innocent Child
- Town 1-Shot Vigilante
- Mafia Godfather (Discarded)

Brassherald: Town Roleblocker ; Blocked Hiraki night 1
- Town Vanilla
- Town Roleblocker
- Mafia Goon (Discarded)

Hiraki: Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker) ; Copped Brassherald night 1 ("No Result")
- Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Cop, Doctor, Roleblocker)
- Vanilla Townie
- Town Mason (Discarded)
-----
Maximum of two scum left: 2 Alien (super unlikely btw), 2 Mafia, 1 Alien and 1 Mafia, or 1 Alien and 1 3rd Party
Assumptions:
1) I cannot be Alien. Deciding to dayvig my 1-shot unlynchable partner day 1 is a really suboptimal move. The WIFOM argument doesn't really apply here because in the absence of other scum factions, I pretty much autolose.
2) Radiant is either town, scum by themselves, or scum with Hiraki. They definitely are not scum with Guacomole or Gemini since they both claimed to protect Radiant night 1 (it's pretty reasonable to presume that at least one of them is town). Furthermore, if Radiant isn't fakeclaiming about the kill (which tbh, I don't see scum vigging Ceejay that much), then there would need to be some other way the kill was blocked.... Aka by Brass, so that's why Radiant could be scum with Hiraki but not really anyone else.
3) Neither Gemini nor Guacomole are aliens. This is a risky assumption to make but 1) we've already had one alien flip and 2) both Gemini and Guacomole discarded alien cards. The probability that either of them drew two Alien cards is pretty low (there's only like what? 7 or 8 in the deck?). Furthermore, both roles would be useful as Alien, and I have a hard time believing they would discard what they discarded if they chose alien.
4) At least one of Gemini and Guacomole is town. Having ruled out aliens for them, it seems really unlikely that both are mafia and both decided to claim the exact same role regardless of what they had. Furthermore, unless Radiant decided to gambit (unlikely imo), we know at least one kill was block/protected night 1. Radiant would be the fairly obvious choice to kill for pretty much anyone in this game (dangerous as town and even as scum, they are dangerous versus other scum), so I believe at least one of them is town and actually did protect Radiant night 1 (which is the most likely explanation for mafia's night kill not going through).
-----
If Radiant was alien, the 1-shot vigilante is kinda convenient since Aliens only get one night kill in the entire game. That said, Radiant discarded mafia godfather, and I have a hard time believing that Radiant doesn't take the godfather role as scum.

If Radiant were mafia, they would have to be mafia with Hiraki for reasons I already explained. (Unless Hiraki lied and used the roleblock first, but Hiraki would have to be Alien in that situation and Brass would have to be mafia... Which doesn't work out at all.) It's a possibility I guess, but I don't see it as particularly likely.

So with that said, I think I'm pretty comfortable with calling Radiant town here.
-----
Given the announcement of mod error, it seems pretty clear that Brassherald
did not
block the kill night 1. (I find it hard to believe that the mod forgets to give no result for the investigation but does remember that the kill was blocked). This is further evidence that Radiant was most likely shot at by scum and was protected from dying. This has implications moreso for Hiraki's alignment than Brass. I guess the one thing I can conclude for Brass is that he likely isn't scum with Hiraki (that seemed too genuine for it to be scum theater).
-----
If there is only one alien left, Hiraki is clear by Brass's roleblock (see above). That does not apply though if there is multiple scum left.
-----
For myself, I think it is reasonable to exclude the possibility of Hiraki being scum with me. While it is technically possible that we are scum scumreading each other in the hopes of WIFOMing town when one of us flips, if we are being honest here, that's not very likely to actually be the case (i.e.: Occam's Razor applies here).
-----
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Post Post #312 (isolation #70) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:53 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 309, Hiraki wrote:Hey! Remember when Ircher said you were next if N_M flipped town! I sure do!

Wonder why that opinion changed??
Night kill analysis plus I honestly forgot about that comment.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #71) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:55 pm

Post by Ircher »

Most likely explanation is that you were targeted by scum and protected. There is also your discard to consider, and a bunch of other factors that heavily rule out you being scum here.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #72) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:58 pm

Post by Ircher »

I'm thinking all things considered, Hiraki or no lynch is the best thing to do here.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #73) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 316, Hiraki wrote:Literally just disagree with yourself harder, I'd love to see you try.
What did I disagree with myself about this time?
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Post Post #319 (isolation #74) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:02 pm

Post by Ircher »

There's the discard, there's what happened night 1, and there's what everyone claimed. Why do you think its non-sense for me to trust Radiant here, especially when I just explained it all out?
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Post Post #321 (isolation #75) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:02 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 311, Ircher wrote:2) Radiant is either town, scum by themselves, or scum with Hiraki. They definitely are not scum with Guacomole or Gemini since they both claimed to protect Radiant night 1 (it's pretty reasonable to presume that at least one of them is town). Furthermore, if Radiant isn't fakeclaiming about the kill (which tbh, I don't see scum vigging Ceejay that much), then there would need to be some other way the kill was blocked.... Aka by Brass, so that's why Radiant could be scum with Hiraki but not really anyone else.
[...]
If Radiant was alien, the 1-shot vigilante is kinda convenient since Aliens only get one night kill in the entire game. That said, Radiant discarded mafia godfather, and I have a hard time believing that Radiant doesn't take the godfather role as scum.

If Radiant were mafia, they would have to be mafia with Hiraki for reasons I already explained. (Unless Hiraki lied and used the roleblock first, but Hiraki would have to be Alien in that situation and Brass would have to be mafia... Which doesn't work out at all.) It's a possibility I guess, but I don't see it as particularly likely.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #76) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:05 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 320, Hiraki wrote:The above is dumb, phone typing too much almost at a computer
Rather than tunneling me, tell me your read on Brass.
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Post Post #325 (isolation #77) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by Ircher »

Gemini, what is your read on Brass?
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Post Post #330 (isolation #78) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:28 pm

Post by Ircher »

Umm.... I don't think you are looking at it correctly?

It's obvious that Brass blocked Hiraki. What's not obvious is if Brass also performed a factional kill at the same time (which failed), which definitely is a possibility.
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Post Post #332 (isolation #79) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:35 pm

Post by Ircher »

VOTE: Hiraki
That's enough.
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Post Post #340 (isolation #80) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:16 pm

Post by Ircher »

They could’ve drawn a mafia doctor card.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #81) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by Ircher »

Is that at me or Gemini?
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Post Post #343 (isolation #82) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:22 pm

Post by Ircher »

Umm... Nvm... I already figured this out....
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Post Post #344 (isolation #83) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:22 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 340, Ircher wrote:They could’ve drawn a mafia doctor card.
Ignore this.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #84) » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:27 pm

Post by Ircher »

In post 344, Ircher wrote:
In post 340, Ircher wrote:They could’ve drawn a mafia doctor card.
Ignore this.
Ignore this.

I had it right when I made the big post earlier.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #85) » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:47 am

Post by Ircher »

From a theory perspective, I think it makes more sense to keep both doctors alive. Plus like Radiant (though not necessarily due to), I'm not really getting scum!pings from either Guacomole or Gemini.

Thus, I think we should just bite the bullet and lynch Hiraki. There's not really anything else we can do here.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #86) » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:51 pm

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(Congratulations on your promotion, Micc!)
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Post Post #362 (isolation #87) » Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:29 am

Post by Ircher »

Idk. I kinda want the game justt to end.... Like, this stalling is helping no one.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #88) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by Ircher »

Claim actions please.
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Post Post #373 (isolation #89) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:17 pm

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I wanna say Guacomole but honestly, I don't know. I got town pings from both of them.
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Post Post #374 (isolation #90) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:17 pm

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Are we thinking mafia exist here? Or do you think Aliens gambitted night 1?
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Post Post #376 (isolation #91) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:23 pm

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Wait, if this was 2 mafia, the game would be over.

So it's either Alien + Mafia or just Alien.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #92) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:25 pm

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It's so strange though.... They both discarded an Alien card and I shot an Alien....
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Post Post #378 (isolation #93) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:26 pm

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Brass, why should I believe you aren't Alien here?
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Post Post #381 (isolation #94) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:41 pm

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Why?

You were supposed to cross-protect or at least protect someone who may die (i.e.: not me)
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Post Post #383 (isolation #95) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:00 pm

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What would be wrong with a repeat of N1?
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Post Post #386 (isolation #96) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by Ircher »

Alrighty then.

Brass, I want a case from you on who you think is most likely scum.
Guacomole, I want you to case Gemini.
Gemini, I want you to case Guacomole.

You have (expired on 2018-07-29 22:07:20) to do this.

Pedit: Guac would never choose himself. Also, a kill happened on RC so I’m pretty sure Brass isn’t scum here or at least not mafia.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #97) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:10 pm

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In post 385, GeminiTwin12 wrote:I didn't think RC would have been a target considering.
There was like a zero chance I get killed.
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Post Post #388 (isolation #98) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:11 pm

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If there’s one scum left, we can afford a no lynch. That isn’t the case if there are two scum left.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #99) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:12 pm

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Fine.
(expired on 2018-07-30 22:12:57) at the latest.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #100) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:15 pm

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Wait, Brass might still be mafia here..... No, he would shoot obe of the docs if he was scum since he’s also a roleblocker... Gonna town!bloc him in that case.

So yeah, one of the docs is a liar. Maybe both of them are scum. (In that case, which one’s mafia?)
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Post Post #394 (isolation #101) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:18 pm

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1) Radiant generally has better reads than me. They’re pretty good at this game tbh.
2) Radiant was technically cleared as town whereas I wasn’t.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #102) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:24 pm

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IF YOU ARE THIRD PARTY, PLEASE GO AHEAD AND CLAIM.


I’m not lynching 3p here btw.
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Post Post #397 (isolation #103) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 3:28 pm

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With Gemini’s target claim, I’m kinda leaning towards them now, but I still want the cases.
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Post Post #400 (isolation #104) » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:56 pm

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Because I honestly don't think Brassherald is scum here, and if he is, gg; he deserves it.
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Post Post #404 (isolation #105) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:20 am

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So you are proposing brass is scum?
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Post Post #409 (isolation #106) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:19 am

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VOTE: Gemini
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Post Post #410 (isolation #107) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:20 am

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In post 213, RadiantCowbells wrote:so you think alien!brass fakeclaimed a guilty?
Thoughts on this?
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Post Post #414 (isolation #108) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:45 am

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UNVOTE:

Why brass?
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Post Post #420 (isolation #109) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:29 am

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In post 417, brassherald wrote:
In post 414, Ircher wrote:UNVOTE:

Why brass?
I would rather be safe than sorry, really. I would like to hear from both of my suspects before making my final decision.
not the unvote, the vote....
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Post Post #422 (isolation #110) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:00 am

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Guac, do stuff before I change my mind about you.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #111) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:50 pm

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Guacomole, do stuff.
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Post Post #430 (isolation #112) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:21 pm

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In post 427, GeminiTwin12 wrote:Sorry, you said suspecting but still.

I read through their ISO. So I'm going to bring up a question again for you Brass. Why would Guac leave crumbs for them to be doctor when the chance existed that they could have died or have been lynched and we would have found out that it was the truth? Was it for town points?
They left them day 2. We were already massclaiming by that point or something, so........
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Post Post #431 (isolation #113) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 2:23 pm

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In post 197, guacamole wrote:No answer on the massclaim question?

Do you think it will help?
Of course it would give scum a chance to claim something too.
Can I get an answer on this?


There can be as few as 1 antitown role left, if it's an alien.
Or there would need to be 2 mafia.
The most there can be is 2. 2 mafia, 1 alien 1 mafia, 1 alien 1 3p.
Doubtful there is both an alien and mafia with one flip claimed already -- if there is then Hiraki is one of them.
Yep, definitely done with knowledge of possible massclaim.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #114) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:20 pm

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I’m the one who said that, and yes, tjere’s no need.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #115) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:41 pm

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*sigh* it’s gonna be one of those long, unnecessarily drawn out games.......
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Post Post #439 (isolation #116) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:42 pm

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VOTE: Gemini
Final choice; either this or no lynch.
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Post Post #442 (isolation #117) » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:30 am

Post by Ircher »

Do you think there are two scum left?

If they are both mafia, the day phase would’ve been skipped, yes?

Brass blocks someone. Docs protect me or the other doc (flip a coin pls).
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Post Post #443 (isolation #118) » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:32 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 440, GeminiTwin12 wrote:*stares into camera like we're on the office*

What's the point in no lynching? we're going to be right back here with it. Also, you shouldn't ask us to case then just force a vote session because things are going slow.
I gave 72h. That’s honestly plenty of time, even if you are busy on the weekend.

If there’s 1 scum left, I want to no lynch for Happily Ever After. Otherwise, I think Gemini is scum and should be lynched.

If brass is the sole scum Alien, he should just go for Happily ever after because the only thing happening in 3-way is a no lynch.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #119) » Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:33 am

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VOTE: No lynch
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Post Post #447 (isolation #120) » Tue Jul 31, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Ircher »

Happily Ever After is a win.
Mafia win if they exist and we no lynch, so......


If you are Alien, it is in your advantage to claim such.


There can’t be two Aliens—then this would be a draw.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #121) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:33 am

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brass, you aren’t voting no lynch.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #122) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:33 am

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And can everyone pls this time ask to accelerate the night? Ty.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #123) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:35 am

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If a kill happens, lynch ___________.

Don't ever ever xlynch ________.
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Post Post #454 (isolation #124) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:36 am

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We no lynch if no kill and Brass blocks Guac instead.

The docs can be on me I guess.
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Post Post #456 (isolation #125) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:09 am

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“You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a Lynch.”
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Post Post #457 (isolation #126) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:13 am

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(That means 3 votes are needed.)
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Post Post #458 (isolation #127) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:18 am

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Worse case scenario is that there is a kill and thus 1T, 1A, and 1M tomorrow. Alien should claim in that case.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #128) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:19 am

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@Mod: Are Aliens that used their kill considered a “threat” to the town?
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Post Post #461 (isolation #129) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:10 am

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Really gonna hope there’s no mafia then.
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Post Post #463 (isolation #130) » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:23 am

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No, if there is mafia left, town becomes Kingmaker basically (as the most likely mafia is Brass tbh.)
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Post Post #469 (isolation #131) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:07 am

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VOTE: Gemini
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Post Post #472 (isolation #132) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:06 am

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The only way town loses is if Brass is scum.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #133) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:09 am

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You still attest you are town Gemini?
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Post Post #476 (isolation #134) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:12 am

Post by Ircher »

@Mod: How many phases must pass with no kill for Happily Ever After?
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Post Post #477 (isolation #135) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:12 am

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UNVOTE:
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Post Post #478 (isolation #136) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:13 am

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What does mafia!brass get by clearing me and starting a 1v1 with Hiraki?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #137) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:24 am

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VOTE: NO LYNCH

BRASS, BLOCK GUACOMOLE TONIGHT. YOU DO NOT HAVE A HARD GUILTY AS SCUM!GUACOMOLE COULD VERY WELL HAVE NO KILLED PURPOSEFULLY.
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Post Post #481 (isolation #138) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:25 am

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And can we please stop overly extending the night phase. Everyone, please vote to end it early; ty.
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Post Post #484 (isolation #139) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:51 am

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I think Brass is voting Gemini rn @Micc
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Post Post #488 (isolation #140) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:58 am

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Guac, no lynch.

Gemini, 50/50 between Guac and me.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #141) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:43 pm

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Don't forget, remember to send the mod a pm wishing for the night to end early!
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Post Post #496 (isolation #142) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:45 am

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VOTE: No Lynch
Aliens can share the win with town. It’s pretty much confirmed no one’s mafia at this point.
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Post Post #499 (isolation #143) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:50 am

Post by Ircher »

Fair enough.

If there is a mafia, they don’t really want happily ever after because they have the advantage tbh.
Aliens however should want happily ever after.
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Post Post #502 (isolation #144) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:35 am

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lol, wouldn’t’ve mattered Gemini! Guac hammered!
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Post Post #503 (isolation #145) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:36 am

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no spoilers til the mod gets back pls.
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Post Post #506 (isolation #146) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:44 am

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I SAID NO SPOILERS!!!!
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Post Post #509 (isolation #147) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:46 am

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Still a win imo.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #148) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:47 am

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Really thought it was Gemini, but the optimal play each time is honestly to no lynch. Too high of a risk that there would be another kill.
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Post Post #519 (isolation #149) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:59 am

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Gg all. I consider Happily Ever After 1/2 a win.
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