Open 730: Donner Party [Terminado]

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee

are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?

He was scum and I ended up listening to people instead of my gut.

Gut says AP is a good wagon.

VOTE: AP

[LuckyOtter]

Let's be frank, no one is gonna waste time reading through a killed dude's ISO just to look for "possible crumbs". And with the person dead it's all WIFOM anyways. Crumbing is most useful to those who are still alive and want others to believe their claim.

Mmmm I dunno, honestly you're probably right D2, but D3 I think I'd be more likely to go crumbhunting. I'm thinking crumbing is better than hypoing in this scenario but I have no experience with hypoing so take that with a grain of salt. I just feel like hypoing might lead to more WIFOM than necessary

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya like I should have last time.

Pedit: Damn you manatee

are you from the game where cee was super townie and explained his reads? Was he scum?

He was scum and I ended up listening to people instead of my gut.

Gut says AP is a good wagon.

VOTE: AP

Let's be frank, no one is gonna waste time reading through a killed dude's ISO just to look for "possible crumbs". And with the person dead it's all WIFOM anyways. Crumbing is most useful to those who are still alive and want others to believe their claim.

Mmmm I dunno, honestly you're probably right D2, but D3 I think I'd be more likely to go crumbhunting. I'm thinking crumbing is better than hypoing in this scenario but I have no experience with hypoing so take that with a grain of salt. I just feel like hypoing might lead to more WIFOM than necessary

Did you just entirely sheep my views lol?

Nah just looking for a good wagon. Yours is better. VOTE: Marshmallow Marshall

[LuckyOtter]

So far CJ I just don't have much to latch onto. I put in my two cents in on the claiming/crumbing talk and I don't have any more to contribute on that front. If you filter it out there's not much else going on yet. In our game I had a pretty specific thing to focus on right away.

I know we played together so you have that meta, but if 'not being engaged' is what's bothering you, how do you feel about shizune, who has posted once to say hello, ask a question that was already answered, and not give a RVS vote?

Pedit: Same question to you wrt shizune, MM.

[LuckyOtter]

I get some town vibes from AP but I'm not ready to actually call him town yet. He's only posted theory so far with a votepark on himself, and has not done any actual scum/townhunting so far. I'd suggest wagoning the fuck out of him if his activity begins dropping once theory-crafting dies down.

MM feels very much like new!town with all the vote hopping. Not-Mafia's vote on him feels like a genuine Town!Not_Mafia vote but I think it's misplaced.

VOTE: LuckyOtter 105 is pretty bad (CJ's bothered because he has meta reads on you, not just because your disengaged. I don't think there's a way to misunderstand that without doing so purposefully) and the 82 vote feels rather opportunistic.

I didn't misunderstand anything. He thinks I'm less engaged/purposeful in this game than the last. I explained why I'm not so engaged yet. I wanted to feel out how much of his suspicion is based on meta vs. lack of engagement (because his suspicion is based on at least some combination of both), and I just got my answer (it's the meta part. awesome, see below). I have other reasons for calling out shizune that will be apparent shortly.

I don't really want to get in a whole discussion about meta here, but maybe we have to. I have exactly one completed game on record. How can CJ, or you, be so sure that I will have the exact same strategy in the same alignment from my first newbie game to an open game? I'm still figuring things out. You and I have almost the same start date so you should get that. Personally, I find meta useless unless you have a lot of personal experience with the same person to be able to see overarching patterns that withstand different variables.
--
CJ I'll answer you in a bit, but I want to hear from Seal first what makes my vote on MM opportunistic, while NM's vote on MM is "genuine." What's the difference, and what's my strategy as scum?

[LuckyOtter]

Did you read through my last game? Does it feel like a large discrepancy? (CJ and Sando can weigh in on this, too). How much are you reading me for this game vs. CJ's meta read?

So you obviously understand the value of using votes to place some early pressure, because in your eyes that's what CJ is doing. But somehow, my vote on MM must be scummy because it is not a genuine scumread. I couldn't possibly just be trying to feel MM out, a person who you are not certain about either?

VOTE: UnrealSeal
--
CJ are you poking and prodding or is this a serious vote at this point?

[LuckyOtter]

Leaning town: BlackStar, ejjinami, manatee, AP, CJ
Null: Mathdino, Sando, NotMafia
Leaning scum: MM>UnrealSeal>Shizune

MM's early posts feel a little too try-hard. He could be just trying to get the game going, but is a little shady about it on more than one occasion. I'm thinking about posts 37, 78, and 83 here. It looks like he's trying to cast suspicion and feel out the crowd to see if these are viable wagons rather than take the initiative to start one himself. The vote-hopping itself doesn't bother me, but in conjunction with these other posts it looks a little off. Also, of all the defenses I've gotten, his feels the most like buddying (particularly in the tone of his vote against CJ, felt like an overracted sheeping of Manatee's CJ vote).

Seal is obviously an alt and should understand the value of changing strategies, so why he would lend any credence to CJ's attack on me as town is beyond me. His interpretation of my initial vote against MM also seems disingenuous. I have a hard time believing that as town, he actually thinks that I was trying to jump on a wagon and ride it to a lynch. I understand why he gives NM the benefit of the doubt, but that he doesn't ask me about my vote and immediately paints it as scummy is what I find suspicious. CJ at least asked me to explain it.

Neither Shizune nor Mathdino has done anything useful yet. Gut says Shizune is more likely scum. No RVS vote + pointless question as only contribution feels icky regardless of join date.

VOTE: MM

MM!scum = AP!town and CJ!town imo.

[LuckyOtter]

Welcome, replacements. Oka, stop PR hunting.

Eragon:
1. Seal's EOD post is NAI to me, if you want my opinion.
2. Why is Sando's 176 off-putting to you?
3. What is the point of including Blackstar in your reads?
4. MM voting your slot for inactivity is completely NAI for your slot. MM's vote was just to appear to be towny by getting people to talk. It could also have been an attempt to distance, or to say hey buddy wanna help me out here? It definitely doesn't clear you.
5. The suggestion that Sando is trying to get ejj lynched before he gets back from VLA is ludicrous
6. Your stance on me has changed from your initial post to 300. You had a pretty waffly read on me that seemed to conclude with me being town, and now you've not seen "much towny stuff" from me. Can you clarify/elaborate?

[LuckyOtter]

Oka, nice to see you again.

If you think meta is dumb, why is it one of the reasons you're voting NM?

Do you have any other reads yet? I promise not to scumread you this time for posting reads right away

[LuckyOtter]

I've seen a lot of people claim this about N_M and I'm yet to see the whole "he's good as town" ever materialise. I've only seen him troll as either alignment and it's just the amount of form of trolling that is NAI. Early votes on MM is town-indicative of him, and believe it or not I'd say

the amount of discussion from him D1 was fairly townie too.

Forgot to ask about this earlier, but wut? You earlier:

N_M strikes me as outside scum-meta

, but I'm a far cry from an expert on that one, and Math is the one I've heard most discussion of NMs play from previously so I'd like more from both of them.

I'm not following.

[LuckyOtter]

Neither ejj nor seal has posted today yet.

[LuckyOtter]

Sando:
I think I'm just generally misinterpreting you. If by 'outside scum-meta' you mean he's not playing like his scum-self then your posts make much more sense.

Also, if "the amount of discussion from him D1' meant "no discussion whatsoever" and no discussion from NM means he's town, OK. I think it's not a great argument but I get what you're saying now at least.

So now I don't get why NM is voting you, because based on the timing I thought it had something to do with a discrepancy there.

[LuckyOtter]

4. UnrealSeal-

>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105

Otter posted at 105, 4 posts after 101 and approximately 3 hours afterwards.

ignoring the semantics part of this, what is the scum motivation for doing this?

I'd also like you to elaborate on your thought process a little more in this post, as the only thing you've really gone into detail on is my Twilight post.

I have no real scum-reads at the moment (I previously had one on Lucky, but his vote was on MM and I don't think he was bussing in this instance.) and while I do have some theories, most of them are stretches at the moment.

I'll park on VOTE: OkaPoka for now

I mean, you know you're going to get asked about this vote, right?

[LuckyOtter]

@Eragon: Looking forward to 2 and 4. 3 is fine. 6 makes much more sense if I am generous and assuming the ambiguous use of "them" is just you being tired. See the bolded bits to understand my confusion:

4. UnrealSeal-
>108defends MM by saying they are noob town for hopping votes. Shades otter’s response and vote and then votes otter. I find this post wolfy
>112 I dont see the point of this at all
>114 blatant wolfy misrep saying otter posted directly after 101, otter posted at 105
>not a huge fan of 118, and I don’t like the stuff about Not_Mafia, seems a bit TMI tbh.
>129 spews both Lucky and Unreal town
>204 wtf is this post?? Betting money MM flips town. My question is, does scum make that post post-hammer

this is my stuff on Seal. and ignore the part about spewing

both of them town

(129) I was tired and it was a shit call.

I think it actually

makes one of them scum.

so really I

havent seen much towny stuff from them

...

[LuckyOtter]

I’m not sure what that whole post was really about, but it seems like “Oh I understand this is and I’m trying to make it clearer so that it seems like I’m being pro-town by clearing things up”

Wait what? I tried to clear something up with AP, but the main part of the post was going after CJ saying he was trying to rewrite history. I posted his words and put them side by side to show that they didn't really make sense together. I then follow up in 178 and again in 182. I was pretty clearly digging into CJ there, I dunno how you think I was just trying to "clean things up".

This part makes sense to me. I don't see a case being made against Sando because of this. If anything, Manatee had a better point about Sando not following up on this with a vote, but if I'm reading Manatee's 'case' right, that's about the most damning thing that we see from him. Is that correct, Manatee? (Most of your case is really just an ISO with lots of null reads in it, as far as I can tell).

As far as I can tell the best case against Sando is his lack of vote and focusing too much on theory talk D1. N_M what do you think?

[LuckyOtter]

Oka, aside from N_M, what are your reads so far?

[LuckyOtter]

@Oka: I know it's still pretty early in the game, but I'm finding it hard to believe that after 15 pages you can't form any reads other than on NM, or that you have nothing to comment on.

Here are just a few things that you could have weighed in on by now:
Do you think MM was bussed?
Do you think Sando sussing but not voting CJ is suspicious?
Do you read me and seal as TvT? How about me and CJ? What do you make of CJ's switching his vote?
Does it worry

you

that Eragon has too many townreads? (this was something you brought up and didn't really follow up on)

I'm not saying that I expect you to have addressed all these things, or that you should have solid scumreads by this point, but there's plenty that has happened that you could engage in by now, and you appear to be more content sitting on a NM vote and seeing where that goes (which is obviously nowhere). Your poking and prodding honestly looks pretty superficial at this point.

VOTE: OkaPoka

[LuckyOtter]

Do you think scum unreal would leave my wagon which has the potential of gaining steam with lucky hopping in and create a new wagon on someone with no votes and seemingly townread by many?

He could believe you are the other scum (despite what he's said), in which case he benefits from keeping you around at least one more round. Or, he might just want to avoid being on the lynch. Or, he just wants to discredit AP and cause confusion. This isn't a great reason to TR him.

I am interested in hearing more from NM, but my money is on you or seal right now.

[LuckyOtter]

Oka, NM just isn't a viable lynch candidate today. I get your frustration, and I could see him as SK, but I don't know his meta and enough people know his meta enough not to feel confident in scum!NM this game that I highly doubt he's scum. As far as I can tell, he has at least 3 townreads (Sando, Manatee, Seal) and 2 true null reads (CJ, Eragon), and only 4 of us even remotely entertaining the idea he might be scum (you, me barely, ejj sort of, AP sort of). The only chance I see NM being SK is if one of the town or nullreaders is lying about how they're reading him, while 2 or 3 of the townreaders are just totally wrong. That is not impossible, but it's unlikely enough that there is no way I vote NM today, and there is almost no way you gather the 5 extra votes necessary to make a lynch happen.

Now the question is whether you realize this or not. It looks to me like you're genuinely trying to get a wagon going and that your frustration is also genuine. I'm also starting to think it's from a town POV and not scum. Partly from gut and partly because if you're scum I don't know that you would fight so hard on this. Actually, the only scenario that makes sense with you as scum is if you think Seal is the other scum and you're frustrated you can't keep him around longer. Which would make sense given your defense of him, but it's not enough to keep voting you right now.

So UNVOTE: with intent to vote seal. There's no rush.

Oka, if you genuinely think NM is scum, and you don't think seal is scum, who do you think could be the other one? I actually do appreciate your pushing NM but your tunneling on him with no real reads of anyone else is unhelpful at best.

[LuckyOtter]

I'm happy to say I'm not happy with the game state. Where is everybody else?

sorry cant im vegan

Well then that tells me your hat is made of polyester and not cotton. Yes??

Why not say how you feel about this, Oka?

[LuckyOtter]

Hold up.

Lazy Reads:

1. AP- too much game theory crafting, not enough scumhunting. Both town and scum do this so null.
2. ceejayvinoya - too quiet for my taste, but still more interative then his scum game, ehh null
4. UnrealSeal - really don't see the scum play in this game, i can see town and scum do the things he do
6. ejjinami -way too quiet, though he was on V/LA
7. Not_Mafia - does this guy ever do something protown
8. Eragon - started out loud, quieted down
9. Sando - unreadable
10. ManateeDude - probably not scum because did the derp hammer
11. LuckyOtter - scum because meta xd, no but really luckyotter is feeling a lot quieter than my sample size of 1 game with him, though he was right about MM and i don't see scum bussing their own party. My vote for SK. He seems to be trying to start discussion with others without really being a part of it if you know what i mean. Feels like he is showing that he is trying to interact, but never getting his hands dirty and I feel like he too timid.

pedit: uh read the actual words i wrote please

A. If you feel that scum didn't bus MM, and you're pinning me as SK, what does that make Not_Mafia, who voted MM before I did?
B1. Lots of us are apparently too quiet for you. What does that mean and why is it only scummy when NM and I do it?
B2. Why does Seal not get read as too quiet?
C. Why does 'too much theory/not enough scumhunting' apply to AP but not Sando, who has already been called out for the same thing?

VOTE: Oka. Going with my earlier theory B that you actually do believe Seal is the other scum and you're trying to deflect that wagon to keep him around a little longer.

[LuckyOtter]

i agree once i get lynched not_mafia gets lynched its a valuable sacrifice for town

a) i have no idea im guessing my reads still suck but its my guess
b1) its scummy for u because ive played with u and ur not quiet as much as i hate meta, if not_mafia was quiet but still analytical it wouldnt be scummy
b2) he is too quiet i dont have to list everything out in a basic and generic readslist
c) because sando did game theory in previous game as town so its a null read and its still a null read for ap i dont know what u want from me

A. My point is that me and NM can't both be SK so if you want us both to be scum you need to be able to argue that one of us bussed MM, which so far you said isn't plausible (and I agree with that)
B. But if my being quiet and apparently not analytical is your problem with me, I don't see how you wouldn't see that in Seal. Like, we've posted about the same amount of times and I don't see how you can argue that his posting is more substantive than mine (but go ahead and try if you'd like)
C. I just want you to admit that all your reads are bs.

[LuckyOtter]

@Oka I trust N_M's reads and I don't like your wagon

What don't you like about the Oka wagon?

[LuckyOtter]

Goddammit all to hell. Oka I legit can't tell anymore if you're being scummy or if you're just being an ass this game. All of this theater just to prove a point is distracting from the game elsewhere. Nobody cares about nm today. Doesn't mean nobody will care tomorrow.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: UnrealSeal

Seal's insistence that he can't be scum because of his ap vote is crazy scummy. You act like scum will always take the opportunistic route. It's pretty obvious how you stand to gain from defending oka as scum. You park your vote on someone nobody cares about, gloat about how you're avoiding the obvious vote (which you could really milk if oka did actually get lynched and flip town), then proceed to scumread everyone on the obvious vote.

Oka should be sorted tomorrow pending seal's flip.

[LuckyOtter]

I don't want to be in lylo with nm either but I doubt he's scum (for reasons I already gave) and I'd rather not waste a lynch on a policy lynch, especially this early when flipping as town wouldn't be very revealing.

[LuckyOtter]

I couldn't read into whatever made nm vote sando, so there's nothing there for me, you're just sheeping nm so that's unhelpful, and seal feels scummy to me so no I'm not voting sando today.

[LuckyOtter]

@manatee yeah I'll look at it later. Off to bed now.

@seal ok, well that's how I interpreted it. I suppose it's not a fair characterization. I stand by the fact that the overall strategy of staying off the popular wagon so that if oka is lynched and flips town you get some town cred is completely viable.

[LuckyOtter]

Manatee I though maybe you had more. I already responded to your sando post in 357. I asked if i was missing something and i don't think you ever responded.

[LuckyOtter]

Manatee I though maybe you had more. I already responded to your sando post in 357. I asked if i was missing something and i don't think you ever responded.

Thoughts on newbie game Oka vs this game Oka? Per 594

I don't put much stock in this since it's just one game, but yes it's different. I don't read much into it because NM has clearly thrown him off the rails here. In our game we at least had everyone talking, so his stability could just be linked to how cooperative everyone is. It's a big enough factor to change his gameplay here. That shift doesn't concern me too much.

It bothers me a tad that he insists on using that game to claim that

my

playstyle is different and therefore scummy, but we've established that he's making lazy crapreads, and apparently it's all part of a point he wants to prove. It's annoying me but I've pretty much made up my mind that I think Seal is actually scummier and I can't sort Oka until Seal flips.

[LuckyOtter]

V/LA through Monday

I may have some time in the evenings to make some posts. We'll see.

Oka, what makes you feel UnrealSeal is the real deal?

[LuckyOtter]

UNVOTE:

I'll hammer anyone who get to L-1. Let's just end this game -that nobody wants to play- already.

This makes no sense. Why the unvote? What do you mean nobody wants to play? Oka

finally

showed up to play and questioned a player that most of us had either townread or ignored up until now. Why not engage in that?

[LuckyOtter]

what are the chances that this is completely on accident, and he hammered his scum partner?

Completely by accident - maybe
Hammered his partner - maybe
Both - Nah

He either accidentally hammered as town or deliberately did it as partner for dat cred.

For clarity, what scenario do you believe to be most likely?
--

Here I am with a long layover at the airport bar. Note to future self to come back.

[LuckyOtter]

Wow. Good work while I was gone y'all XD