Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Keyser Söze]

Yeah, still not happy with TW (his 180 on Mom was unsettling).

[skitter30]

i'm like insanely cleared an associatives ffs

[Keyser Söze]

Town reads on gustavo and Irrelephant11 still strong.

[Keyser Söze]

I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.

Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...
Yes, I had Mom in my bottom two scum reads on D2 but never voted for him..
Yes, I asked Mom to roleclaim at L-2 way before the deadline...
Yes, I decided to kickstart the TW wagon instead of jumping on the lead wagon...

But you’ll find the reasons why all in my ISO.

If you do not understand my motivation in any of the above I’ll explain.

[the worst]

prod dodging for a bit

[Keyser Söze]

PLEASE NOTE remember scum had day chat D1 and D2, so could strategize wagon formation and distancing.

[Keyser Söze]

I had a Bernie-Mom scum team theory on D1, so will re-read my notes.

But I liked Bernie’s posting D2 tbf.

[Gustavo]

I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.

Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...
Yes, I had Mom in my bottom two scum reads on D2 but never voted for him..
Yes, I asked Mom to roleclaim at L-2 way before the deadline...
Yes, I decided to kickstart the TW wagon instead of jumping on the lead wagon...

But you’ll find the reasons why all in my ISO.

If you do not understand my motivation in any of the above I’ll explain.

1. Distancing and avoiding a mislynch
2. That’s part of why I scum read you. Putting buddies as scum but not pushing them is common scum play
3. And?
4. And?

Nothing you just said makes me think I’m wrong.

[Irrelephant11]

Votecount 1.4
skitter30(2) ~ Keyser Söze(36), Irrelephant11(15)
Nauci(2) ~ Mathdino(22),

Shoshin(53)

Invisibility(2) ~

Momrangal(5)

, Bernie Sanders(34)
the worst(1) ~ Invisibility(26)

Shoshin(1)

~ skitter30(18)
northsidegal(1) ~

stungun0404(22)

Momrangal(1)

~ northsidegal(4)
Keyser Söze(1) ~ the worst(35)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Nauci(17)


Not Voting (1):

Gamma Emerald(13)

To start, I find it very unlikely that one of scum!Bernie's first votes joins Mom on a two person wagon. There was tons of freedom at that point to vote anybody, so that would be weird. Also, votecount 1.4 has a voting pattern that goes like this:

Voting:

Stun

>> NSG >>

Momrangal

>(with Bernie)> Invisibility >> the worst >> Keyser >(with me)> Skitter >>

Shoshin

>(with math)> Nauci >>

Gamma

which lowers the scum equity of both NSG and Invis (although I just now went back to look at NSG's vote and it's never explained so move errant to the second category of "less likely scum".

[Irrelephant11]

Literally I spend night time doing vca and daytime doing gameplay reads, deal with it @all. I recognize that you (skitter) are unlikely to be scum but you're not cleared by your votes by any means and bussing your least helpful partner to death for towncred is a thing

next is 1.1

Votecount 1.1
Mathdino(2) ~ stungun0404(1), Shoshin(18)
Shoshin(1) ~ skitter30(7)

Momrangal(1) ~ Invisibility(11)

Irrelephant11(1) ~ Nauci(7)

Invisibility(1) ~ Momrangal(3)

Bernie Sanders(1) ~ Mathdino(13)

Not Voting (6): Irrelephant11(0), Bernie Sanders(0), GeminiTwin12(1), northsidegal(0), Keyser Soze(0), Gamma Emerald(4)

This is why Not_Mafia is less likely scum, like yeah they could coordinate this (and in fact Mom said "let's lynch actual scum" in her vote post) but it seems unlikely. This is WIFOM but imo lowers NM's scum equity, especially because Mom rode the Invis wagon for so long.

[Keyser Söze]

I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.

Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...
Yes, I had Mom in my bottom two scum reads on D2 but never voted for him..
Yes, I asked Mom to roleclaim at L-2 way before the deadline...
Yes, I decided to kickstart the TW wagon instead of jumping on the lead wagon...

But you’ll find the reasons why all in my ISO.

If you do not understand my motivation in any of the above I’ll explain.

1. Distancing and avoiding a mislynch
2. That’s part of why I scum read you. Putting buddies as scum but not pushing them is common scum play
3. And?
4. And?

Nothing you just said makes me think I’m wrong.

1. That would be badscum/lazy distancing play.
2. Correct optimum scum play would have been to put consistent pressure on Mom throughout D1 and D2 who had a poor game due to activity.
3. I was scared of Not Mafia’s quickhammer (made sense at the time, but changed my mind)
4. Why push a counter wagon at that point of the game?

[Irrelephant11]

Votecount 1.7
the worst(3) ~ Invisibility(28), skitter30(61), Bernie Sanders(81)
Nauci(3) ~ Mathdino(54),

Shoshin

(90), Irrelephant11(41)
skitter30(2) ~ Keyser Söze(85),

Momrangal

(27)

Momrangal

(2) ~ northsidegal(5), the worst(68)

Gamma Emerald

(1) ~ Nauci(18)

Not Voting (2):

stungun0404

(32),

Gamma Emerald

(34)

If Mom joined her scumpartner Keyser in voting Skitter, yikes. She couldn't even claim she was sheeping Keyser here, because Keyser gave very little reasoning at the time iirc (mom didn't either), so the only reason to vote next to her partner here is to... vote next to her partner. skitter looks somewhat more towny, here, but mom being the second vote on a scumbuddy is less surprising/odd.

btw, I'm focusing a lot on early D1 for vca as we get flips, because by the end of D1 myself and Nauci had talked enough about vca to make scum more careful, probably

[Keyser Söze]

Mom’s early D1 tunnelling of Invisibility was irregular - it was that behaviour that made me suspect her originally.

Sometimes nervous scum can only focus on their partner as a good way to buy into a game...

So I wouldn’t give too many town points to Not Mafia’s slot.

[Irrelephant11]

Oh and 1.7 is also why I'm somewhat townreading nsg/the worst, though by my own logic I probably should have the worst and skitter on the same tier, so I guess I move the worst down a tier. I agree that my vca has led me to a weird place, but it clarifies some reads I already have (Bernie, errant) and challenges others (nauci, skitter, keyser) and also gives direction on who to look more closely at

[Keyser Söze]

Zzz

This is great and all but let's all build a wagon on actual scum

VOTE: invisible

Does any know Mom’s scum meta well enough to know if she comes into D1 posting that on her scum partner?

[Errantparabola]

Worst, claim your result.

[Keyser Söze]

Irrelephant11
Shoshin
stungun0404
Keyser Soze

Mathdino
Bernie

Nauci
the worst
northsidegal*
Invisibility

Gamma Emerald
skitter

That's where I stand. Moved invis with meta considered

I bet you a million dollars there is at least one scum in his ‘null’ pile.

I am rethinking my read on Bernie, and I think he's going after low hanging fruit duck.

Bernie made a huge ass case on duck, and his tone and I agree with the lack of direction but I entirely disagree with duck being given enough space. I have that slot as null, but I honestly don't find his pred scummy outside the supposed semi-trustish whatever tell you want to call it regarding him replacing out. Even if whatsherface and skits (I think it was) told each other that they were excited to play the same alignment, I don't think replacing out should ever be alignment indicative and no one really has given duck a chance to do more than get his feet wet.

He even said that the wagon would have zero effect because he lacks time and wouldn't have it later in the week but absolutely no one has payed attention to that little tidbit.

Further more, this case on duck came when after duck said he wouldn't have any time to defend himself, and after duck is at a vulnerable L-2 (1?) position making it completely viable that duck gets lynched before he even had more time to get himself busy.

He also pushes duck but still takes a wholly neural stance on the matter so that, when popular scum read duck flips town, he can take the blame off himself considerably easier than most others gunning for his lych

Hmm... would Mom say her scum partner Bennie is going after low hanging fruit scum partner The Worst..? Probably not.

[Keyser Söze]

VOTE: Nauci

Though I would prefer a Bernie wagon

What do you think about bernie

This is what helped to stir Mom-BS bad feels in me on D1. Mom was talking about BS alot but not following it up with a vote...

[Keyser Söze]

Also, I feel like everyone has made a decision on duck based on his pred replacing out.

Sure it was weird, but Gemini was engaging before she ghosted. It doesn't seem like no one had taken into consideration that she replaced out because of IRL reasons and it didn't seem like anyone looked for proof in other games she might be in.

That being said, duck has 30 pages to read to catch up on and that's not an easy feat

Hard defence of TW. Wow, would Mom really defend her scum partner like this??

[Keyser Söze]

Elephant is a town read, and i feel like hes succumbing to a bit of paranoia. I dont really like it when i have pretty confident townreads and i cant really work with them

I like this as Mom talking to a townie here.

Mom throwing in a bit of AtE which actually nearly turned Irrelephant11’s scum read of Mom.

[Irrelephant11]

My reads post-flips, mostly independent of vca, would be something like

Gustavo
Bernie
skitter
errantparabola
nauci
blackvoid
keyser
the worst
not_maf

with an acknowledgment that I have this feeling that one scum is in my blind spot

[Keyser Söze]

My reads post-flips, mostly independent of vca, would be something like

Gustavo
Bernie
skitter
errantparabola
nauci
blackvoid
keyser
the worst
not_maf

with an acknowledgment that I have this feeling that one scum is in my blind spot

Why am I back down there below BV?
Do you read what you post?

[Keyser Söze]

Do you see Mom’s obsession with Bernie as their attempt to lynch town, or a case of enthusiastic distancing (as she knew her time was up)?

[Keyser Söze]

Oops just read your post

[skitter30]

i'm kinda waiting to see where tw is going to push today

i'm low-key thinking that he was pushing mom/me/nauci knowing that mom would flip red so that he could then push me/nauci today

i'm still *very* interested in having tw explain how he thinks that makes sense

or how he went from

gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom

. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.

to the following when pushed

@Bernie you may be overestimating how much I've put into this. it's independent scumreads with the gamestate softly supporting them as partners sometimes.

I'll re-read their ISOs when I have time later though.