Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[skitter30]

ok i'll be back later

[skitter30]

ok i'm back

duckling when you're on lmk so we can talk about this

[skitter30]

skitter i actively am not convinced you're town why the hell would I mimick th tpr meta you specifically more than anyone else are familiar with.

this should have pinged you as a ~possibility~ numerous times after our last game together and yet you've just been blatantly pushing for my lynch. that's tpr hunting not scumhunting.

so you wanted me to pick on your pr tells but deliberately didn't play up that meta?

like that post i quoted i thought may have been a pr soft that i was supposed to pick up on but i wasn't sure if it was or if it was just an unfortunate word choice

so i made a deliberate point of acknowledging it, but you didn't like acknowledge that back or anything so i thought i was mistaken

if there were other tells i was meant to pick up on i didn't

[skitter30]

like i'm very confused about how you were approaching me here given jungle republic

[skitter30]

honestly, no, it didn't occur to me because this looked nothing like jungle republic; i'm really confused why you expected me to assume you were doing the same thing as jungle republic when you *weren't* behaving anything like jungle republic

like that post i quoted i saw but i wasn't sure if you were actually softing to me or if i was reading into things that weren't there. i also remember being paranoid that you were deliberately softing to me to get me to back off given that i couldn't actually talk about what i was seeing at that time

i didn't see anything after that and i forgot that post existed till like three hours ago

[skitter30]

like there you were cocky as fuck when you were an actual lynch target that you wouldn't actually get lynched given the seer thing which is where the soft happened

here you kinda slipped it in, in a way that only i would see, when i was pushing you; and i didn't see that sort of cockiness/surety anywhere

i'm honestly very confused about how you played this

and if you were deliberately trying to pr-soft to me idk why you played against the meta i'm familiar with

or why you'd expect me to pick up on those softs when you were playing against the meta i'm familiar with

and for that matter if you think i'm scum why you'd soft to me, or why you think i didn't just kill you given all of this

[skitter30]

i kinda need to rethink everything right now because i don't know how to read you

and if you're town i don't really know where scum is; i need to like re-orient my entire understanding of the gamestate

irregardless of this pr business your associatives with mom are gross and pushing me as a mom partner here is asinine and at best indicates that you completely don't understand the gamestate and at worst indicates that you were trying to tie me to a mom flip

[skitter30]

what are you not disagreeing with exactly?

i really don't trust this pr thing and i'm paranoid to a not-insignificant degree that you're using this to get towncred and to get me off your back

like ignoring the pr thing i still don't townread like anything you've done this entire game

like last time when you claimed everything kinda snapped into place and i was like 'oh your behavior till now makes an insane amount of sense' but i'm just not getting that here; i don't understand your mindset like at all

i also don't understand why you semi-claimed a result on ep today either; it feels more like you're announcing 'i did something claimable' than an actual result that you're sharing to clarify the gamestate

like i don't know how i'm supposed to be approaching your slot or how i'm supposed to read you because you muddied this read with an insane amount of wifom that i don't know how to resolve

[skitter30]

momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia

i think bussing votes are something like

tw > irrelephant > nm = errant > bernie > gustavo

in that order

i don't think bv's lack of vote yesterday is really that problematic tbh

[skitter30]

This was ++points for House Town Soze and a large part of my townlean read. It was the vote that made the strugglewagon viable for a moment. If TW were to flip red Keyser would look really good, IMO.

actually i kinda disagree with this; i think that's the kind of thing scum would try to highlight for distancing points, especially since the gamma wagon was all but inevitable at that point

[skitter30]

Oh and I didn't see crumbing of PR in his TPR games (didn't look at Jungle because Skitter has already mentioned/analyzed it) while skimming his many hundreds of posts.

so jungle republic is 7T :3Mafia : 2Wolves, with the wolves having an nk, and one of the townies is a seer, which is like a cop cept only for wolves, and tw rolled seer; seer is the only pr in that setup

so basically he purposefully acted lynchbaity day1 and i kinda tunneled on him.

he softed at some point day1 remarkably similarly to how he softed in open 720 i think (math's noir game), which he knew me + some other people in that game would probably pick up on

i noted the soft and tried to back down a bit since softing pr and all that jazz although i still thought he was remarkably scummy and i think i voted him post-soft anyways cuz i thought he was scum

day2 i start by casing someone, ap, who i thought was scum and tried to get tw to wagon him with me. tw incidentally had a guilty on ap and after i kept pushing him to wagon him with me decided to just claim and out the guilty

and i basically believed him right away because his behavior till that point made *a lot* of sense

he also cleared me + other people who would recognize the noir soft as being wolves given that he didn't die overnight, and he was right

check of day2 of the last jungle republic for reference if you're interested

[skitter30]

wrt irrelephant: i dislike his mom progression quite a bit actually; i don't like the day1 townread and i don't like the day2 scumread given the day1 townread; i don't like how he kept throwing his vote around day2; i can see that being a bussing vote as the mom wagon picked up steam

i don't like his hop-on and hop-off of the tw wagon today either tbh

[skitter30]

the thing with duckling is that i like basically always read him wrong but as tvt we eventually mindmeld but that hasn't really happened here like anywhere

i don't townread like anything he did, irregardless of the pr claim

and i think that chaining me to mom is gross and like i don't think his understanding of the gamestate is that bad? like i don't think he actually believes that tbh? especially since he softened that stance when pushed by me and bernie

but then i like don't think scum!him really like follows up a mom lynch with trying to lynch me; i'm pretty hard to mislynch and can get really stubborn and like can out-argue most people and i'd make sure everyone knows he gets flipped after me if he actually managed to push my mislynch through, and like he knows all of this

so i dont' know what he was getting at with chaining me to mom because i don't really think scum!him would try to lynch me after her, unless he was just trying to broadly shade and/or discredit me

[skitter30]

I'll read thru that l8r if I'm in the mood. anyone able to tell me if any of it was directed @ me?

Yes, basically every single post of mine on the previous page was either directed at you or about you

I'm trying really hard to reach out to you here to figure this out and I'm kinda feeling like you're avoiding responding to what I have to say by hiding behind 'lol walls that I dont want to read', which is honestly not a response that I'm used to you having to me and to my posts

[skitter30]

@skittles

Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3)

Is he

that

confident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?

Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?

honestly no idea; i really don't understand what he's up to

the only thing that backs up this 'trying to look scummy but really a town pr narrative' is that he tried softing to me, but when i didn't really pick up on it i don't get why he deliberately played against the meta i'm familiar with if he was trying to get me to read him that way

--

I feel like Bernie is probably town. NM and TW are leaning town. that's about it

why is tw leaning town?

--

just off memory skitter and keyser but somebody said skitter was not mom's partner and I am not sure why that was said. I can't do this off memory anymore, I need to refresh my mind by reading

cuz if i'm scum i basically spent most of day1 trying to bus her

--

i initially read 794 as mom white-knighting town!tw

also there's some very early voting patterns that seem to indicate not-partners from them

i really hate the tw's progression on her and mom's hard defense of him tho, and that she went after bernie for pushing tw

i'm kinda wondering if she tried to tie him to her on purpose tbh

--

That's not what it is, and if worst is fakeclaiming a guilty on me then you can lynch me and then immediately lynch worst tomorrow (or, preferably, just lynch worst)

oh i was getting the vibe that he was fake-claiming an inno on you, not a guilty, for just that reason tbh

--

while I'm doing this ISO on blackvoid (which is so freaking long... the catchup thing is not towny imo it just filled the thread with questions that had mostly been asked & answered already) I'm gonna go ahead and say that BV/skitter is actually a pretty likely scumteam imo if neither NM nor tw are scum.

pedit: is that about me

if you think i'm scum tell me why you think i'm scum instead of throwing around scumteams that make no sense.

like you keep trying to scumread me and when i press you on it you back down and can't explain the scumread and then a few days later you do the same thing.

like if i'm scummy to you explain why.

catchup from bv is NAI imo; that's just how he catches up as town and as scum he'd try to mimic that. i don't think he was bloating the thread with his questions; honestly that was like a catchup-lite from him and i don't think the intent was to bog down the thread

--

3. She's also consistently playing up the fact that she and skitter see things the same way. But they often have different views on key reads. For example skitter has Irrelephant and Keyser as scummy whereas Nauci townreads them. My point here is more that they have different thought processes that reach different conclusions and Nauci playing up how closely they are linked together doesn't seem genuine to me.

@nauci:

ftr i'm kinda picking up on this too; i feel like you're kinda over-emphasizing how strongly you townread me and you're like defending me to gustavo and it's making me wonder if you're like trying to pocket/buddy me

[skitter30]

@bv:

i was kinda toying with that idea, tbh, especially given the possibility of town!tw

like between irrelephant and nauci there's just like a lot of ... noise referencing that past game and what they think the alignment of the other is here, especially on nauci's part; it never really seems to come to a conclusion either way but seems to keep on getting dredged up and honestly i'm just kinda skimming those posts because it doesn't really seem to lead anywhere conclusively and neither actually seems to really scumread the other; it's just a lof of nauci explaining that she's incredibly paranoid of irrelephant, although she seems to have come around to townreading irrelephant for kinda meh reasons imo

i'm kinda independantly scumreading irrelephant based on mom associatives and lack of conviction and throwing votes around yesterday and today

nauci like i want to townread but for some reason i just can't comfortably do it; there's a strong element of paranoia that she's kinda faking it; like ep says he thinks she's focusing on salient parts of the gamestate but i don't really think so; she seems to be spending a lot of time doing things like assembling votecounts and tracking down people's meta and a lot of it seems like .... busywork to me almost? idk

i also found it weird that nauci so easily picked up irrelephant's cue to scumread you

[skitter30]

Is it really a defense if I just think it's absurd to think anyone would bus a teammate so hard starting as early as page 18?

no, this makes sense and i think i ought to be cleared based on that and it exasperates me that people don't see this

but tha'ts not really what i'm talking about; it's not like your townread of me became this strong just now based on the flip; you've been talking about mindmelding and super strongly townreading me since i think the end of day1 (maybe start of day2? i don't remember offhand) when there wasn't that level of evidence; and i feel like you keep highlighting how strongly you townread me and it's making me paranoid that you're trying to pocket me

also i feel like there's enough controvesy around tw and his (maybe?) claim that i don't think he's a super high nk target tbh; he's still kinda lynchable in this gamestate

basically i don't know if banking on him getting shot is a good way to resolve this

[skitter30]

if he thinks i'm scum with mom i don't know why he didn't check me and/or nauci tbh

[skitter30]

thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/

for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.

Sounds like TW got a guilty, and EP didn’t roleblock/NK TW, knowing that’d he’d target (BV?).


@the worst?

uh this is a really far-fetched theory imo

--

wrt errant's description of his convo with tw:

i feel like tw is spouting what he thinks to be the correct way to play a cop but honestly nothing he said there feels *real* to me

like saying he's checking bv kinda ticks off the correct boxes but like doesn't actually match his claimed reads or mindset at like any point in the game

although i will note that odd-night-doc and even-night-cop makes some amount of sense (since he doesn't seem to have a night1 result?)

(aside tw + ep not partners like ever here tbh)

[skitter30]

yep, that post is hilarious lol

[skitter30]

HURT: duckling

I know this was likely not intended as a vote, but I want to be clear if this was intended to be a vote, it isn't. -brass

[skitter30]

HURT: duckling

I know this was likely not intended as a vote, but I want to be clear if this was intended to be a vote, it isn't. -brass

nope, not meant to be a vote

probably shouldn't vote him until/unless all this pr stuff is cleared up but i'm scumreading him hard and that's where i'd be voting in the absence of the claim thing, despite the claim thing, and perhaps because of the claim thing, and i wanted to indicate my feelings on the subject

also i'm going to demand that if he plays this waiting game today that he absolutely *must* claim the day before xylo or i will do my damndest to policy lynch him on that day

i do want him to answer lingering questions wrt to his claim nowish tho because it's kinda stalling the gamestate and i think he knows that


(aside, brass, i just want to reiterate that you're legit one of my favorite mods on site and i really appreciate how attentive you are, and how communicative you are with the players :) )

--

I think scumEP+townTW is not possible

i'm pretty sure scum!ep + scum!tw isn't a thing

and also pretty sure that scum!ep + town!tw isn't a thing, but not quite as confident as the above

(ie i think that the way ep is approaching this is kinda townie actually)

--

nauci for the record if tw is town i think your scum equity goes up

i'm getting these vibes that you're like looking for reasons to discredit him

i'm very aware that i'm shouting my discontent at the claim right now so this may seem kinda cog-dis-y, but whatever; i think i ought to mention it anyways

i don't really know how to explain what i'm seeing but i'll try; like 2720 pings me the bad way; i feel like you're looking for mechanical reasons to find his claim scummy that are based on kinda meh mechanical assumptions that we can't really verify given that it's a closed setup

like we don't know how many pr's there are; if some other town pr existed and claimed i would not consider their very existance a cc to tw given that we don't know what the setup looks like at this time

because there's no way there are 4 TPR in a 13p normal I think? I would glare at Brass forever if there were

which I suppose means

no matter what TW's role claim is, if someone CC's TPR at all, then *at least* TW is scum, if not both

like this seems like a bit of a jump to me, 'another claim means we have 4 tprs which means tw is scum', especially since town neighborizer is like a meh role in terms of town power

like the last mini normal i played (mini 1963 i think it was) i think had: scum ninja vs town rb, town detective, town vig, town vanilla cop, and town gunsmith (yeah the ninja basically existed as a red herring i think; it did nothing in that setup)

idk your frustration with tw doesn't feel totally genuine to me overall; i don't know how to explain it better

--

Sorry but think you're actually just scum this time my dude

i feel like mom voting vizzy *probably* doesn't come from scum but i don't want to rule it out because of the rvs-scum-partner-distancing

i don't think nm hammering mom is ai at all whatsoever

@bv: it's def within his town meta to lolhammer when given the opurtunity; and if scum!him thought she was going to get lynched for sure he might have just hammered anyways to be on the wagon

[skitter30]

don't agree with skitter's assessment of my catchup being non-alignment-indicative. I actually think it very much was. I spent a lot of time (over twenty hours) on it which is something I'd never do as scum.

i'm sorry

i know you worked pretty hard on it

you're more likely than not town here but i'm in a super paranoid thing where i'm having trouble being comfortable calling people town right now besides for like gustavo

[skitter30]

huh; i vaguely remember reading along that game

ok that's a fair point tbh and i'll give him townpoints for that

[skitter30]

(aside, brass, i just want to reiterate that you're legit one of my favorite mods on site and i really appreciate how attentive you are, and how communicative you are with the players )

actually quoting this for truth even though I haven't read anything else on this page

brass top tier mod

although i agree that we ought to appreciate how awesome brass is

i have no idea how this is the only thing on this page you read

[skitter30]

well the tldr version as pertains directly to you is that i think you're scummy despite, in spite, and because of your claim

the game's kinda waiting for you to figure out what you're doing here and i think you know that

i think you ought to sort through this now but if you don't i want you to be policied the day before xylo if you're still alive and still doing this

[skitter30]

i mean i guess if that's the best we're going to get from you ...

i'm going to be v/la this whole weekend so i guess i'll be waiting a while

i feel like i ought to be voting somewhere

VOTE: irrelephant

i think is where i want to go for now

[skitter30]

@bv

what do you think of tw/mom/nauci?

i kinda think that nauci's reaction to tw today doesn't feel super genuine to me irregardless of tw's alignment

[skitter30]

actually skimming through nauci's iso again idk if she makes much sense with mom; she'd have to have bussed her nearly as long as i was pushing her

[skitter30]

hi i am around now

@brass:

i'm going to be v/la tomorrow till monday

might be back earlier, prob won't be

[skitter30]

sorry i just missed you

i'll try to be on tonight, and i'll be around tomorrow morning/early afternoon before v/la probably, but then probably not till sunday night

[skitter30]

i have to look at nauci again; i'll do that after i catchup or later tonight or something (ie going to go through 2767 seperately)

--

@bv: very very very early on i got some not-partner tells from tw and mom

they both voted nauci at just the same time within like posts of each other; it didn't feel like partners to me

and tw had a vote on mom that in context felt really wrong to be on partners too - 315 i think

also i thought 794 kinda read like white-knighting

i guess i'm just a little unsure if she was trying to protect a partner or whitenight a town lynch

i'm kinda tending towards the latter on associatives but tw is like soooooo independently scummy so i'm having trouble reconciling both things

--

i really hate that tw is following enough along to make non-game relevant comments but refuses to clarify anything

--

VOTE: black void

I find it interesting he said he had mom as his top scum read but never votes. He also is seen asking why mom/bernie can’t be town v town. Later he’s talking about mom and the worst. Mom’s wagon already has 4 and He says he’s thinking of voting the worst. Why would he vote the worst over mom who is his top scum read and has the bigger wagon? He then disappeared and we lynched mom.

I saw mom pushing hard early day 1 for nm’s predecessor so for now nm can be left to continue playing against his win condition imo.

i don't find anything scummy with how bv approached the mom wagon tbh; it's fairly inline with how he votes as town and how he approaches the game

i don't like this blackvoid push tbh

--

i mean i guess if that's the best we're going to get from you ...

i'm going to be v/la this whole weekend so i guess i'll be waiting a while

i feel like i ought to be voting somewhere

VOTE: irrelephant

i think is where i want to go for now

do tell!

Also you're real paranoid that Nauci is pocketing you but surprisingly certain that BV isn't, and is just town (as indicated by your casual and friendly willingness to go back and forth with ideas and questions this game day). Why is that?

I don't like how BV is defending both NM and tw without voting anybody, and while completely ignoring the worst's implication that he has some sort of result on him. I get the feeling tw is waiting for BV's response and I think his lack of response is actually telling.

pedit: I can and will get on board with that, at least for now. VOTE: blackvoid

i'm somewhere at:

{gustavo}
{ep}
{bv, bernie}
{nm} -----> null
{nauci, keyser}
{irrelephant}
{tw}

the way ep handled tw's claim i think is pretty townie tbh. like i don't think he was trying to take advantage of town!tw's claim to get in a mislynch; it felt pretty genuine to me and like he wanted to clarify things as much as possible

i like that he paraphrased the neighborhood pt and that tw agreed with how he presented that convo

it felt very ... earnest and honest and helpful to me, i guess

bv i really like solving the game with; when we both know we're town we work super super well together and we kinda bounce ideas off of each other and we both think about the game the same way and it's just a really great collaboration and i'm happy that he's caught up so we can try to sort this together

i'm not *100%* confident that he's town; we haven't reached newbie 1815 levels of mindmelding yet; but he's more likely town than not and until i see actually scummy things from him i want to work with him; like i don't think any of the things people are saying are scummy about him are actually scummy from him. like i don't think not-voting is scummy from him (now or yesterday); that's just how he plays

i feel like he's trying to work with me and understand my mindset and clarify his own and is interacting with a townread the way i'd expect, whereas nauci just keeps announcing that she thinks i'm town but doesn't do anything with it, if that makes sense

i will note that i think that scum!bv tries to pocket me always tho which is where some of the paranoia comes from, but idk, overall i don't think that's happening - like i feel like the fact that he townreads me is a real approach he has to the game because that stance is reflected in most of his posts.

like i he's showing me that he townreads me from how he interacts with/about me. nauci i feel like is more telling me she's townreading me

that was a lot of words but i hope that made sense

and i don't really townread you and i think your associatives with mom are icky so this is where i want to go for now

ok getting long so new post for the next page

[skitter30]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

You should. I've already put much more into this game than I've ever done as scum over whole games. As scum, I would almost certainly have voted Momrangal early on because looking good is more important than being right. I was unsure between

Momrangal and TheWorst and really wanted to make sure I made the right decision there. I would

never

have made a post like 2423 as scum. I wouldn't spend a whole catchup pushing my partner and then flush any potential towncred I could get down the toilet by backing off at the last moment.

I also didn't "disappear." I went to sleep and when I woke up, I found out N_M hammered. I don't think I can convince you that not voting until you're ready isn't anti-town but since you know for a fact, I hold onto my vote, you should see that it isn't alignment indicative.

ftr i agree with this

bv has a pretty good sense of associatives and optics and like i think he knew it was probably going to be a mom lynch - as scum i think he wants to be on that wagon and wouldn't like hold off with some last minute doubt as her wagon was gaining momentum

like as scum i think he just commits to a scumread to get the cred and is very obvious about it so he can point to that the next day; he doesn't dance around voting her or not when she's about to be lynched and like purposefully invite scumreads the next day; like i think scum!him knows how to read the game well enough to tell that he'll get blowback when she flips red

and i know that being *right* and voting actual scum matters a lot to him; waiting till he sure is inline with his general approach to the game

[skitter30]

although i'm a little bit surprised that you missed that ep said tw was going to target you

[skitter30]

You say “you” but you’re not voting anyone? Do you mean me?

whoops that was directed at bv

i'm voting you tho

[skitter30]

Out the result duck

[skitter30]

I know you're the only one giving him towncred, and I think you should stop doing that. His actions don't deserve towncred because waiting for a claim doesn't help him as scum, and lolhammering is what he always does as his NAI meta. The only reason I can see to give him towncred is that you somehow know he's town, or based on my vca, which you are now skating over how you thought it was ridiculous and still haven't responded to the expanded version you asked for

i think bv made a solid point wrt the hammer, that it's likely that scum!nm would try to force a cc.

it's possible he wouldn't have, but i agree that in the context of that game bv linked, nm ought to get some townpoints for that hammer. it's not like a solid townread or anything, but it is a town-indicator imo

i dont' understand the conclusion you draw that bv saying this is a town-indicator for nm means he knows nm is town

if anything town!nm is kinda the perfect mislynch target so scum!bv wouldn't really want to move in the direction of townreading him imo unless they were like partners; like why bother bringing this up at all instead of letting nm be suspected for the hammer?

[skitter30]

@brassherald: I'm v/la through Monday because my thermometer says 103.2

Sorry guys thought I could still catch up but the brain fog is overwhelming. At least my cat likes me when I'm warm

feel better

[skitter30]

Brief skim I don't know if I agree with Irrelephant but I like the push and didn't like bvs responses

VOTE: bv

Sorry I'll be back to more analysis when o can think straight

ok when you feel better i'd appreciate it if you can explain what you don't like about bv's responses

[skitter30]

I also think my slot may have been shot N1. I didn't really consider it a real possibility before because I hadn't replaced in by then and the only thing my pred did was rap and I thought that was a pretty bad way to play 1-shot BP. But he also softed having a PR at some points by claiming that he was laying low and that might have been what drew the kill.

Nauci making such a big deal about it and pointedly asking me about it feels like inside info.

huh

can you point to where you think math did that?

honestly this slot is about as weird an nk as gustavo tbh; especially since math was basically awol for most of day1 anyways

i don't think this impacts my townread of gustavo even though he might not have been the nk that night

so we now have (claims and/or flips)
errant - 1shot neighborizer
bv - 1shot bp
shoshin - odd night doc

[skitter30]

eveyrthing about this claim-thing is just really, really, really rubbing me the wrong way

[skitter30]

he claimed 1shot bp

i don't think that has a gun?

[skitter30]

i'm confused

[skitter30]

1sbp goon doesn't make sense when there doesn't appear to be any evidence of other killing roles

ok so if you're both holding onto those claims there's scum in {tw/bv}

[skitter30]

but why does he claim 1sbp when he doesn't know what you have on him then

[skitter30]

i'm kinda inclined to believe bv here but i am willing to consider the possibility that i've been pocketed given that there does appear to be a 1v1

i need to think about this

and prob see how bv reacts

[skitter30]

yeah i know

[skitter30]

i have to like go and reread math's iso i think

[skitter30]

i don't see any sort of softing in math's iso that bv alluded to

[skitter30]

i kinda believe bv here too tbh

kidna want to see how he reacts but like ... i don't think he claims 1shot bp as scum while waiting for tw to drop a semi-guilty when he doesn't know what type of semi-guilty he has

i kinda think he'd wait till tw actually claimed it so he can cc something that matches

[skitter30]

that's a real claim too?

[skitter30]

so just to clarify

errant - 1shot neighborizer who neighborized duckling n1 (proven neighborizer)
shoshin - oddnight doc who docced gustavo n1
bv claims 1shot bp
tw claims even-night gunsmith and that he checked bv n2 and that he has a gun
bs claims tracker and says tw didn't go anywhere last night

[skitter30]

i'm kinda inclined to believe bernie here given that he gets auto-lynched on a tw townflip; and he had enough towncred to like ... not need to do that

[skitter30]

bernie you think tw/bv?

and tw busses bv for the towncred?

y tho

he'd be the last surviving scum assuming 10-3 and then he has to explain why he isn't dead in endgame. i think it's kinda risky

bv is less suspected than tw so why have tw fake a guilty on his partner and if they were hell-bent on doing that, why not do it the other way around?

[skitter30]

i'm having trouble understanding tw+bv actually

i can see one or the other but i don't think they make sense together really?

or at least this pr shitshow doesn't make sense to me as scum working together

[skitter30]

ok what is town!bernie doing here then

[skitter30]

i think town!bv here actually

like this isn't really how i see scum!bv agreeing to get bussed

it would be a lot .... neater i guess; like this feels kinda sloppy and fileld with loose ends that don't fit together

like if scum!bv actually wants to get bussed by his partner i don't think this is what it looks like

so there's also a (presumbly scum) rb floating around too

[skitter30]

wait am i missing something

[skitter30]

i think so too

i'm very confused

assuming bernie's telling the truth tw isn't

if bernie is lying than maybe tw is

there's at least one liar in {bernie/tw/bv} and simplest explanation i think is that it's tw

[skitter30]

Ah fuck I missed that possibility

[skitter30]

Yeah ok that's not a thing

[skitter30]

Ok I'm voting tw in spirit but I have no idea what the VC is and I dont want the day to end till bv shows tonught

[skitter30]

I really dojt think ur flipping green here tbh

[skitter30]

Brass said in the queue somewhere that it's as close to normal as possible

I think it's just in this queue cuz of the flavor

So I think normal-balancing is a reasonable approximation for this game

[skitter30]

I will say I tried to get the American Presidents Mafia as close to normal as possible. Knowledge of the American Presidents, pre-Reagan (I have maintained the decision on suggestion by Pine[?] that the newest possible president is Jimmy Carter) is not necessary either.

[skitter30]

Is there a reason why tw cant be the rb again

[skitter30]

Is there a reason why tw cant be the rb again

Rb results in "no result" for tracker I think

Assuming you believe BS

Yes but Bernie got a result saying tw did nothing last night, and said he was rbd so the implication is that he was rb'd n1

As far as I can tell theres nothing contradicting rb!tw beyond the fact that a scum rb faking a result like that is kinda unlikely imo, unless he was 1shot or something

[skitter30]

OK so in light of it being a theme it's possible for 1 result to be bad
However not 2
Therefore still either TW is scum or has legitimately caught BV. Or TW-BV is the scumteam gambit (this time seriously).
IDK why TW would make this play as scum tbh but from his play over the course of the game I don't think I ever lynch BV over him here

This is roughly where I'm at too

[skitter30]

Assuming scum!tw, I'm at:

Town Bernie
Town ep
Town me
Town Gustavo

Very likely town bv

So the last scum is in {nm, keyser, irrelephant, nauci}

And we can just lynch through I think

[skitter30]

I have a tinfoil hat theory that tw is a traitor but I dont really have anything to substantiate that beyond like gut

[skitter30]

Um not sure yet

I'm kinda reworking my understanding of the gamestate

I dont know who in that pool is most likely

Still probably irrelephant? Not sure tbh right now

[skitter30]

Assuming scum!tw, I'm at:

Town Bernie
Town ep
Town me
Town Gustavo

Very likely town bv

So the last scum is in {nm, keyser, irrelephant, nauci}

And we can just lynch through I think

Is town you a mechanical clear or like just from your POV

If it’s mechanical I’m fine with this plan I think

A mix sorta

Like ep isnt mechanically clear but I'm pretty sure is just town. Gustavo too.

So I guess from my POV, which is supported/reinforced by mechanics

[skitter30]

Oh wait I misread that

No I'm not mechanically clear to my knowledge

It's from my pov

[skitter30]

I don't think scum tw rules out scum bv, Skitter

In fact a bv flip might be at least as informative on the off chance tw is telling the truth hmmmm

No we like dont lynch bv to check if tw is telling the truth lol

[skitter30]

For like the thirty-billionth time, I make no sense with mom given that I spent like all of day 1 trying to get her lynched

[skitter30]

How many investigative roles does town usually get? Do tracker and gunsmith both count as investigative?

I thought it was at max 1

so tw I'm not sure what your read of BS is if you were somehow telling the truth

I don't think this is a thing

[skitter30]

@brass: I dont know if this was said anywhere but is it known if scum can kill and use a role/ability on the same night?

[skitter30]

Is it crazy that I'm actually considering BV here >____>

I think duck scum is very likely as bussing anyways but then on off chance my track on him messed with (unfortunately not negligable with TW publicly claimed as PR) it holds

I'm having a lot of trouble seeing this tbh irregardless of my read on bv

Like I sont get why tw busses bv here and not the other way around - I dont think even with the towncred of bussing a partner that tw makes it to endgame; and hes going to be suspected for not being dead in a couple of days

Like why do they do this out of the blue? I dont know if scum banks everything on this

Also bv-personality-wise this doesn't really feel like a plan he was involved in. It isnt ... neat enough. I don't know how to explain that better

[skitter30]

VOTE: blackvoid

this might sound insane, but tracker alone isnt nearly enough invest power especially if there's either a roleblocker or joat for scum as well
ordinarily I wouldn't setup spec at this point but I don't really think there's a big unclaimed town investigative here but balance wise there really really should be

you have a result that says tw is lying tho ...

[skitter30]

you said tw didn't go anywhere

from your pov he can't have gotten a gunsmith guilty last night on bv

like irregardless of bv's alignment tw is lying from your pov, unless you were literally like re-directed (not normal i think) and i think that's incredibly unlikely given that you were rb'd

[skitter30]

ok i'm back, yay

so assuming nauci isn't town fake-claiming (and i think it's reasonable to assume she's telling the truth given that there has to be another strong investigative somewhere), irrelephant and key are town (which takes out half of my lynchpool today, yay)

if we want to do a massclaim i think it's just me/gustavo/nm who haven't claimed yet, so if we're doing that lmk

ep i'm pretty sure is just town given how he reacted to the tw thing (and if he had neighborized literally anyone else n1 he would be conftown too given that we know that there's a rb out there who rb'd bernie n1 and he presumably can't neighborize/rb on the same night; since he neighborized tw it's technically possible that they're partners and the neighborize didn't actually happen; i'm aware that this is an unlikely possibility, but i'm just being thorough; if we accept he neighborized tw he's basically conftown too)

i don't know who was the nk attempt n1 but that person is also town; i have no way of distinguishing between bv-getting-shot-through-a-bp and gustavo-getting-targeted-by-shoshin-and-the-nk

so i guess i'm somewhere like:

{irrelephant, keyser}- mechanically; i don't actually townread them independant of that
{nauci,ep}
{gustavo, bv}
{nm} ---- null but i townread to some extent everyone else so i guess i'm voting here?

idk if nm is town i'd have to rethink gustavo and/or bv

i'm low-key worried i got pocketed by bv tbh, but i'm still having a lot of trouble seeing tw+bv as being a thing

i kinda townread everyone else (and/or they're mechanically clear) so i guess it's just nm? idk

the one thing that's holding me back here is that nm is super disengaged from the game and idk if tw banks the game on nm given how out of it he is

[skitter30]

Is a mass roleclaim necessary at this point?

@nauci lmk if you want me to do this

[skitter30]

Oops I somehow missed that he started NM n1. That's big

I think the only "no result" ones would be roleblocker or jailer? Ninja would give "no visit"

So we’re dealing with a Mafia ninja then..?

I did wonder why Mafia didn’t just roleblock BS (create some WIFOM for that slot, you weren’t even 100% sold on the town tracker claim) and NK Skitters, another mass town read player / possible TPR?

maf rb (or jk) i think; bs didn't get a 'you didn't see your target go anywhere'; he got a no result

i think bernie dying last night is indicative that the rb/jk is like one-shot; else i think they would have blocked him and killed someone else

i think

odd night doc
1shot neighborizer
1shot bp
tracker
neapolitan

vs

encryptor
1shot? rb/jk
goon

is kinda balanced? i'm not super great at balancing or anything but this feels about right to me, especially if the rb/jk is gated like that

[skitter30]

ok vt

[skitter30]

(i kinda implied that with my last post; oops)

[skitter30]

We have time to talk about BV and our collective ‘town’ reads

I was hoping N_M was gonna show me signs of his famous scum hunting ‘skill’.

iirc tw thinks that town!nm has fairly decent reads

his reads this game ... do not fall under that category

[skitter30]

Town

Odd Night Doctor
Tracker
Neopolitan
Neighborizer
1 shot BP

Scum

Encryptor
Goon
Ninja or Blocker?

Who thinks this looks balanced?

one-shot neighborizer

and almost for sure gated rb/jk (probably 1-shot and/or used up shots already) and i think that's roughly balanced imo

[skitter30]

ok i'm basically caught up

i think i want

nm >> bv = gus >> ep >> nauci

where i'm assuming me/irrelephant, keyser are town

keyser/irrelephant are only not necessarily town if nauci is town fake-claiming here, which would just be like idiotic; if she's scum and lying they're still town; also the setup seems to indicate she's telling the truth; and either way she's going to get resolved by dying before lylo presumably and on the off chance she doesn't we can figure it out then

townread ep

and i townread bv + gus too but less than everyone else

so i think nm is my preferred lynch today

[skitter30]

Town N_M is trolly but he won't vote conf-town. @Irrelephant and Gustavo.

i literally just saw him do this as town

your responses are actually pinging me a lot

was that just hammer?

[skitter30]

^^^^^

[skitter30]

Also, N_M just gave up so why haven't we ended the game?

like this is pinging me - i feel like you're urging people towards a lynch which is ..... not like you at all

[skitter30]

VOTE: the worst

Fuggo tomorrow

in the aforementioned jungle republic game, *after* tw claimed seer and nobody cc'd him (this was *not* a cc)

and nm was town

[skitter30]

bv i'm really just getting the vibe that you want to push this lynch through?

[skitter30]

but then this makes me feel like you legit have no idea what's going and that you're just throwing out random names

[skitter30]

bv i'm really just getting the vibe that you want to push this lynch through?

Yeah, I want to push N_M through. Maybe I'm not playing completely optimally by not going through an extensive analysis of clearing Gustavo before I do it. I think it's ridiculous people are actually voting me over him and I'd hate to give this scumteam a free mislynch on me even if they wind up losing.

I haven't read the game closely enough to see what the context is. But N_M's posts here just gave me the impression that he knows he's caught and the game is done so might as well get lynched and move onto the next one.

Is there anyone I should be seriously considering outside of N_M?

ok so here's where i'm at:

a) you feel like you're trying to push through a lynch, which feels very wrong from you; like i'm surprised that you aren't re-reading gustavo here or looking at ep. like i understand that from your pov nm is most likely but i feel like you aren't going through the other options as thoroughly as i'd expect from you, which is surprising me. and you not really responding to nauci is just kinda uncharacteristic i think

b) nm is literally throwing out random names, which looks kinda survivalistic to me, to see if anything sticks. my problem is that he isn't that clueless i think? like if he actually cares he has a very good sense as to what's going on. i don't know if he's more likely to care as scum or town but i feel like he usually at least attempts to play to his wincon and here he's just like doing whatever. it looks kinda like a last-ditch attempt to get the heat off of him. but like i don't think this plays to a scum wincon and i don't think tw entrusts the game to someone so clearly out of it; i don't think he gambles that hard on nm who just isn't here

c) i am beginning to get paranoid that i got pocketed by you - i'm having a lot of trouble putting together tw + bv in a way that makes sense to me knowing what i know about your playstyle but i'm having an equally hard time being comfortable just calling you town no matter how much i want to

[skitter30]

skitter it might be BV but his wanting to push NM through here is towny - scumplay is to prepare another lynch for when this flips green.

i know that's part of what's causing doubts

but rushing the day just feels wrong from him either way? idk

[skitter30]

she's very very probably town but honestly she's not getting lynched today ever and if we don't solve the game today she's almost for sure getting nk'd before lylo so i'm just sticking her in my townpile without thinking about it too much tbh

like if we're both alive in lylo i'll worry about it then but i honestly can't imagine that lylo will be me/nauci/???? so i don't really care enough to worry about this line of thinking

[skitter30]

Okay, yeah that's another thing
Why does TW suicide to push NM forward? This D2 fake guilty strategy makes me think that they've got someone who they feel like can go long (or at least, longer than worst which was admittedly not a super high bar this game) which sort of exists directly in conflict with the people i'm townreading

In post 3186, skitter30 wrote:
nm is literally throwing out random names, which looks kinda survivalistic to me, to see if anything sticks

Wouldn't interpret this as survivalistic personally. I feel like I can't read any of NM's posting anymore because it makes equally as much sense for him as town to give up as for him as scum to give up

yeah from tw i just don't see him banking the game on nm in this context? like that seems like a bizarre strategy to me given that tw was going to get lynched yesterday or today if he survived yesterday

and wrt survivalistic, like i don't know if it's AI - that's kinda what i was getting at; like i can see him doing this as either alignment tbh, which is why i'm having trouble interpreting it

[skitter30]

actually that's a legit point; i think nauci linked a previous game of tw's where he did this after one partner was dead and another partner was super scumread

[skitter30]

@skittles

Do you think scum-TW has given up today? (he’s decided for D3 to be about him, with the potential of it being 9 town vs 1 Mafia going into N3) Is he

that

confident that his scum partner is that well town read / hidden?

Is there ANYTHING from his D1/D2 play that backs up this trying-to-look-scummy-but-really-a-town-pr narrative?

In our stack the deck game, I Vigged scum N1. TW basically outed himself D2 while their 3rd was one of the more scumread slots in the game.

So I'm not sure if it means he feels confident about their 3rd?

this one

[skitter30]

hi i'm a she

i feel like there's enough lynches left that we're basically guaranteed to get to 4way, and depending on how exactly the flips go and if i'm alive i probably get hammer. i can't project exactly what i'll do there because it'll depend on future flips but this prob won't be the worst xylo i've been in

(aside: i'm eternally surprised that i make it anywhere near xylo)

basically my point is that the order doesn't matter *too* much since there's enough cleared slots that we can basically lynch through the unclears and win, although it would be nice to win today, so i'm going to try for that

bv i'm going to read your response but i need to do stuff irl now, but i'll be back later this afternoon at some point

[skitter30]

actually i dislike(d, pretty sure i said this earlier at some point) 340 because math told me she could be sorted by postcount and she hadn't posted enough for that to be a thing yet imo

like i had just played 1872 with math and gemini and mislynched her for asking safe questions and just being there without really having any strong opinions and in post-game math told me that she should be read by postcount, so the fact that he found her scummy there for doing just that in her four posts was weird to me; like from that convo from the week before he ought to have been reading her as nai/town, not scummy

i brought that up but math disappeared into the ether so never really followed up with it

like idk if that's an associative tell but it's a very very odd post from math in that context and doesn't really match the mindset he'd exhibited when we had talked before the game started

[skitter30]

you're really *that* confident that i'm town here that you're just taking me out of the lynchpool unilaterally?

i kinda want to townread you but as the number of players dwindle i'm kinda wondering if it's you

the way ep handled tw's claim felt really town to me

and stungun was super town; and gustavo's aggression/complete non-understanding of the gamestate are kinda town too (although wrong)

like nauci said she was satisfied with your response to her case but i just kiinda ... wasn't? i guess? like it didn't feel right.

i'm trying to find the words .... you felt kinda I guess dismissive of everyone's scumreads? like trying to dismiss the concerns people had as some extreme levels of paranoia that weren't really warranted, but like, i kinda understand the concerns over your slot right at that point quite a lot; like i guess i'm comparing this to the space newbie where i was tunneled on you and you spent like a week trying to talk to me out of it. you weren't dismissing me as being paranoid!town but legitimately thought scum!me was trying to mislynch you

i didn't really read anything over night so i'm going back now to try to remember why your play at the end of day3 and day4 was bothering me

i still feel like you were trying to rush the end of day4 which seems kinda unchracteristic of you;

and that you're trying to show that math was crumbing bp alot like that it should be clearing; i don't find the crumbs particularly strong but either way i don't really think whether or not math crumbed bp is that important wrt your alignment

what i did find more compelling is a point from nauci where she pointed out that if you're bp you seemed to be townreading gustavo to some degree or another for probably being shot; the possibility that you were shot didn't really seem to enter your thought process till much later, till the tw thing

also i'm kinda wondering if your strong townread of me is you trying to pocket me. also if you were trying to make me paranoid of nauci

i'm not really familair with your scumrange that much tho and i feel like the analysis is pretty town? i think i need to like actually read your iso from nsg's game

and really look over your posts from the end of day3/day4

[skitter30]

(i guess i'm just rambling a bit as a try to figure this out)

from bernie we know that there's a rb and/or jk. since they've been killing the prs instead of rb'ing them, going back to n2, i think it's a reasonable assumption that it's 1shot

did gustavo ever claim?

so:

even-night doc
tracker
nea
neighborizer(?)
1sbp(?)

1srb(?)
encryptor
goon

this looks about right to me. i kinda think that on baseless setup spec that without the 1sbp it's kinda scum-sided? not sure tho and i wouldn't really base reads on this sort of analysis here

both gustavo and bv are very odd kills n1 tbh. i geuss bv makes more sense if if tw is scum and was pr-reading math? idk.

i feel like bv is kinda over-focused on the 1sbp thing and showing that math had crumbed. i don't know if those claims are really strong but i also don't think the crumbs are really relevant; like i don't think scum really reads those posts as pr tbh

and i'm very confused at tw trying to bus his partner and hoping to coast on that because people would expect fo rhim to be dead before endgame

i guess on associatives i think tw/bv doesn't really make sense but play-wise i townread everyone else more

[skitter30]

i really like your analysis tho

[skitter30]

Something I wanted to comment on right before I left, I had some misgivings about my Irrelephant read. Basically came down to feeling like there was some genuineness behind his push on me/trying to figure out my alignment. It's going to take some substantial re-evaluation of the game to actually consider a town-Irrelephant worldview considering how certain I was most of the game but I did feel like Nauci was taking advantage of the fact that me and Irrelephant were tunneling each other and tried to pocket him and push back on me since I wanted her dead anyway.

like idk if scum you reconsiders here or feels the need to start to limit your potential lynchpool

[skitter30]

i think i need to reread day4 and also early game and probably tw's iso at some point

i don't think realistically that i'm going to do that today tho; maybe tomorrow

(i'm in a bit of a depression thing and my motivation isn't super high atm)

[skitter30]

afiafa

my post got eaten by the internet

ok take 2

=====

These are both true which is why I'm kinda worried about this game. One of them played a really good scumgame.

so ep being scum means that that he faked a neighborizer claim to stave off being pinned as the rb; like he claimed early day3 before we even knew that a rb existed or that this was a thing we needed to worry about; and he faked being a neighbor with his partner and then outed his partner's result in the most incriminatory fashion possible in order to force him to out the fake guilty and like ... i just don't see that as theatre?

and you being scum means that you had to have forced a 1v1 with your partner in a way that managed to completely screw with nauci's results in the best possible way for you when you clearly didn't know that was a thing; and like i just don't think that's how you plan a bussing attempt tbh; it doesn't feel like something you were involved in planning tbh

maybe it's just gustavo?

also i think that the game's probably scum-sided without the 1sbp tbh (neighborizer if town is useless wrt power basically and if ep is scum he's the rb and the neighborizer doesn't exsit). i'm not *super* great at balancing or anything, this is kinda on gut, but it doesn't feel quite right to me without the 1sbp.

i think ep is a lot better at the balancing stuff than me but there's a possiblity that he's scum and then he'll just answer the question however it benefits him to do so so his opinio isn't super helpful to me rn

(do you rembmer that normal i played with seph and implosion and scum!implosion confused me on just that? )

I was mostly trying to avoid a nightkill because I figured the longer we were both alive to gamesolve, the more certain a town win would be. I didn't really consider the possibility of needing a crumb to avoid a mislynch. I've only been mislynched once (the game that we played together). In general, I'm very good at not getting lynched as town - I thought even more so in this game because you were here and even if somehow I got suspected, you'd talk everyone down because you know my play. On hindsight, I probably should have crumbed as a contigency plan in case the pressure turned on me.

um, sorry about that

like i want to townread you but i'm just not townreading you as strongly as i want to, def not strong enough to strongarm people into not lynching you right now. i also don't really scumread you either tho, def not strong enough to push through your lynch, which is why i'm kinda confused and i'm not sure where to slot you in this gamestate where i kinda townread everyone else too

i kinda think we ought to not rush today so all of us can try to work this out

did you ever claim your flavor btw?

=====

I wasn't trying to make you paranoid of Nauci. I actually really nailed behaviors of Nauci's that came from an informed perspective. Her suspicion of me. Her read on Irrelephant. Her claiming that you were mindmelding with her while never trying to see eye to eye on those reads. I was wrong about why she was informed.

But I really don't think I'd be capable of looking at the game so deeply that I'd spot legitimate informed-tells from townies as scum.

yeah i was thinking about this overnight - you nailed that informed-perspective thing from her; you were right for the wrong reasons. if you're scum here idk if you push her for that instead of like ... recognize that she's a pr and tread lightly around her

=====

I just don't see you playing this way as scum. I doubt you'd disagree that your play here is very, very well outside your scumrange.

eh, fair enough

I don't know much about depression but I wish you the best in getting well.

tyty

=====

I didn’t think I was the NK target. I thought shos was stupid to save me. I honestly felt I’m being saved for lylo. My gut says one of the claims is fake. I’ve searched the archived games and when scum has an encryptor, scum never have a neighborizer. I found one game where scum had a BP RBer and an encryptor and town had a neighborizer but I actually can see errant being scum here. He had a vote on tw and he was late and no reason. He had a vote on mom that’s again was late and no reason.

I don’t really have a read on skitter yet but nobody else seems to think he’s scum so it’s not worth looking there I guess. I will before the day ends.

if ep is scum there isn't a neighborizer; he's the rb/jk

the neighborizer thing itself isn't super important or ai or anything.

also i'm a she

=====

Can’t post until tomorrow/friday maybe, skimming until then
Or you can just lynch me before then and save me the work because I have no effin idea who it is, just can’t help but feel like somehow we’re inevitably going to choke and lose this game

also this feels kinda townie to me too

[skitter30]

Also, @skitter, I feel-- this week has been a sudden unprovoked depressive cycle for me and class just got so hectic, so I've just been so demotivated for something like mafia.

hope things look up for you soon! and that class is less stressful for you!

Did you think that we were in danger of rushing?

no, today doesn't feel rushed; yesterday felt super rushed to me tho; we ended the day after like 36 hours and i wasn't really ready for the day to end and wasn't expecting it to end that fast; that's why i'm a little bit suspicious that bv was encouraging votes on nm and that he just wanted the day to be over before people could think about it too much

=====

@all, who (other than you) has the most interesting interactions with Mom and tw's slots? This can include PR claims and stuff, but especially before those all happened?

i want to go back to reread early game at some point because that tends to yield interesting insights after flips happen

i'm not sure when i'm going to do that tho

=====

I'm working mornings now so I'll have the evenings free to post. @Skitter, my flavor is Gerald Ford. He survived assassination attempts so I'll survive a nightkill. (Heavily paraphrased)

ok the flavor makes sense i think

today's fun fact of the day: gerald ford survived two assiassination attempts in three weeks, the first by Lynette 'Squeaky' Fromme, girlfriend of Charles Manson, and the second by Sara Jane Moore, who incidentally grew up in the same city as Manson.

today's second fun fact of the day: my working knowledge of presidential assassinations and attempted presidential assassinations comes from Stephen Sondheim's musical *Assassins,* which is about 9 individuals who tried to assassinate a president

[skitter30]

I don’t see anything in the role information of flipped scum to suggest they had fake claims though.

mod were scum given fake claims?

uh both flips have fake-claims in them

[skitter30]

oh i don't think i did

william henry harrision

flavor is about being determined with good intentions

quote is about government

[skitter30]

Welcome, Momrangal! Let's face it, you're just drifting by, you didn't plan on saying much when you were selected for this initiative, and as such you are paired with the clone of Calvin Coolidge, Mafia Encryptor.
Factional Communication: Each night phase, you may talk to your group [Redacted].
You didn't feel like leaving the room, but were so quiet people forgot you were there and you overheard that whenever they tried to clone Jimmy Carter, they just got a strange type of peanut. This would be a safe claim for you.

it literally says that this is a safe claim

[skitter30]

Welcome, GeminiTwin12the worst! You're lustful, but you already knew it, you're the Senator with 5 mistresses, and as such you are paired with the clone of John F. Kennedy, Mafia Goon.
Factional Communication: Each night phase, you may talk to your group here (Redacted).
Through some flirting with a cute technician, you found out that Harry S. Truman has not been cloned and would be a safe claim.

[skitter30]

(though why is BV 1SBP if he survived two assassinations? Might be something?)

i don't think this is significant

[skitter30]

eh, the connection has been kinda tenuous throughout so i'm not reading much into it

like taft was a good judge of character so nauci was a vanilla cop

Mending a Nation: Abraham Lincoln lead the United States in the Great American Civil War to bring a divided nation back together. On odd numbered nights, you may attempt to protect one player in the game from being nightkilled.

or this

like the connections aren't really strong enough for me to judge if a claim is real or not based on flavor

[skitter30]

huh, in retrospect gemini replacing out just after vizzy voted her should have townspewed nm actually

p-edit - ok i'll keep that in mind when i get that far

[skitter30]

i kinda skimmed through ~page 13.

math's still kinda meh and a lot of the things that was pinging me about him then also pinged me upon a re-read. still hate the rapping. he also notably refused to take a stance on tw more than once, which i thought was interesting. i still think that his approach to gemini was kinda weird given that prior convo we had.

stungun was quite suspicious of both gemini and mom very, very, very early, and there's a lot of anti-associatives between stungun and gemini on page 8 and honestly i'd be kinda impressed if newbscum distanced like that that early

(aside i just want to note that my reads in 376 were pretty good, especially for me in early game, and that if math was scum i bascailly had all three of them lol)

i shall update on my thoughts as i read more

[skitter30]

scum!nsg would have had to basically start the game voting her partner and do literally nothing else

[skitter30]

For anyone suspecting me: you have to believe that Gustavo was the kill target N1. Except what motivation does scum have to kill someone who spent most of their time tunneling Shoshin and being a distraction?

My predecessor hinted at having a PR multiple times. There were scum like TheWorst who have experience with him and may have picked up on his PR tendencies. As far as I can see, there's nothing in Gustavo's posts that hint at having a PR.

On balance, I really don't understand why anyone thinks Gustavo is the more likely shot here.

i think that there isn't really a way to tell conclusively either way so i'm not paying that much attention to this piece of evidence.

i think that gustavo is a very odd kill that night

i think that math is also very strange given how inactive he was, but makes slightly more sense given that tw flipped scum and math has caught scum!tw multiple times before and powerlynched him (a50's recent open, last iteration of stack-the-deck i think)

scumteam is: tw/mom/{one of bv(math), gustavo, ep} and i think that tw probably chooses who to kill in all three of these scumteams given that mom was out of it, maths' slot was basically empty overnight, gustavo i don't think had a super strong understanding of the gamestate, and ep was kinda out of it too iirc

[skitter30]

Can people show me why Errant is town outside the neighborizer claim.

the neighborizer claim + outing tw + tw interactions when tw fake-claimed all feel super town to me

nothing earlier than that really felt town

[skitter30]

i think that math is also very strange given how inactive he was, but makes slightly more sense given that tw flipped scum and math has caught scum!tw multiple times before and powerlynched him (a50's recent open, last iteration of stack-the-deck i think)

scumteam is: tw/mom/{one of bv(math), gustavo, ep} and i think that tw probably chooses who to kill in all three of these scumteams given that mom was out of it, maths' slot was basically empty overnight, gustavo i don't think had a super strong understanding of the gamestate, and ep was kinda out of it too iirc

oh so my conclusion regarding this is that since tw is probably the one with the major input wrt who to kill, i can see him choosing to kill math; idk if i really see him choosing to kill gustavo there tbh

i dont remember exactly what my read on him was at the end of day1 but i'm pretty sure i was strongl yindicated i was scumreading him so i'm low-key surprised that he didn't nk to me; he really had no chance in hell mislynching me this game so guess he decided to try to tie me to mom to shade me i guess, but htat didn't really work, idk what his plan was really

[skitter30]

so irrelephant + keyser are town

and if i were scum i've basically won because i'm not really lynchable anymore so it's a good thing i'm not

i'm pretty good at lylo as town (only gotten lylo wrong once ), and even i if i don't win i'm pretty good at nailing scum when looking at the game holistically

basically so long as i get my motivation back to actually do my due diligence i don't really mind lylo that much. i kinda think that i have enough info from previous days to try to do that today but i don't have it in me right now to reread the whole game so i'm kinda postponing for a few real-life days till i can *effort*

ep - like the posts he's making today i'm pretty sure just don't come from scum. he's basically asking to get lynched because he doesn't want to do lylo and like ... unless he's scum who really just gave up and doesn't want to deal with endgame he's just town (and i'm not sure why scum!him feels this way given that he's in a pretty good spot here)

gustavo - stungun felt super super town and doesn't seem to be a partner with any of the flipped scum. i don't really feel like gustavo is trying to solve the game tho; like his posting today makes me feel like he doesn't really care who gets flipped

bv - don't really like day4 but i think mechanically prob isn't scum; think he makes more sense as the nk n1; is kinda out of his scumrange and his analysis just feels kinda town. still kinda paranoid tho

i guess i'm kinda at gustavo > bv > ep?

but i prob need to check scumgames of all 3 of them at some point

i guess whichever of the three of you it is, none of you feel much *urgency* at directing the lynch elsewhere since everyone is very lost rn

[skitter30]

I want EP to provide deeper reads on Gustavo and BV but for the record I retract ~2/3 of my stungun townread, after finishing this game

Gustavo is now my fav lynch. I'm not trying to rush this game day but I'll leave my vote on whoever I'm leaning toward for now

huh

so a fairly large part of my stungun townread is his anti-associaitves with flipped scum in early game, but he is apparently quite adept at distancing as scum, based on that game, so that prob isn't a really good reason to townread him

[skitter30]

after a no kill your biggest scumread tells you that they doc-protected you last night

how does that arrect ur read on the doc-claim?

[skitter30]

*affect

[skitter30]

sure, of all the presently-backed wagons that i don’t have my vote on, the ones that appeal the most to me are platfleece, wingedcatgirl and espeonage.

espeonage, for an ic, i feel has put out very little readable game content—which concerns me. ic’s should be demonstrative by how they play the game themselves—which would then perhaps having an effect of rubbing off on newbies.

platfleece feels like a potential newbie scum slot to me, but has 3 votes already and i don’t feel comfortable enough about my assertion to place them at L-1.

wingedcatgirl has given 3 votes already with very little substance as backing, and is notably classified as an SE in this game. so, i’d like to see more there.

for now, i’ll VOTE: Espeonage

from that newbie game on his scumbuddy about 80 posts before he actually votes him (his later vote put him at L-2; he avoids L-1 here)

[skitter30]

can you elaborate on your read on me a bit more?

[skitter30]

do *you* think i'm scummy tho?

(ie independant of how everyone else is reading me)

[skitter30]

do *you* think i'm scummy tho?

(ie independant of how everyone else is reading me)

Yes I do.

so you're basically just resigned to losing to me if i'm scum?

i don't really understand this mindset. or, more accurately, i don't really understand why you're pushing other people as being a good lynch today if you think i'm scummy

like i kinda think that if you're town and think i'm scum you'd be trying to draw people around to your pov to convince them why they're wrong about me

but you're instead looking for reasons to find other people scummy and are kinda just ignoring me and your read on me

[skitter30]

And I have looked over your posts. I’ve already said that. So you implying I haven’t isn’t accurate. Out of the 4 of us I know 1 is town. I see one who doesn’t look as bad as the other 2.

I honestly don’t think scum shot me. I honestly don’t think scum shot math either. Bv didn’t do much of value when replacing in and didn’t vote mom and only hammered the worst. That sticks out the most to me. That’s where my vote lies.

I’m voting who I think is scum. I lack the power of persuasion cause nobody ever listens to me.

given tw/mom/{one of ep/you/math}, it makes the most sense to me that tw decided to shoot math that night tbh given the possible options

So if you are town. You were combative when you didn’t need to be. You blatantly misrepped (lied) about your play last game (I proved this true), and you claimed doctor when you were under no threat of being lynched.

Yeah don’t worry if I’m wrong about you, I’ll never play with you again.

That said, I don’t think I’m wrong about you. It doesn’t matter though cause nobody is lynching you.

I will say that if you were town, there is no way scum would kill me so your story is definitely not believable.

You as town were more likely the person to be killed.

Why would scum kill me unless my reads were right. If they are right you are scum

this post is kinda interesting to me tho

your biggest scumread tells u they protected you the night before, the night there wasn't a kill. i kinda think that would prompt some sort of re-evaluation here, but you're using it as an oppurunity to double-down on the scumread, but back down because she isn't getting lynched, not really on play and def not after the claim

and your immediate reaction is that scum wouldn't have killed you so her story is fake which is just kinda ????

she can be telling the truth irregardless of targeting you irregardless of whether or not you had been targeted by scum too. like you not being the nk doesn't make *her* actions invalid. suboptimal, maybe you can argue, but i don't know why you're assuming she's lying or that her story is not believable.

@bv what do you think?

[skitter30]

I honestly think tw faked a guilty on his partner. That’s my bottom line today. He avoided a mom wagon, he hammered scum who faked a guilty on him instead of being sooner on the wagon.

That’s my vote.

i don't think he was avoiding a mom wagon; i think he was taking time to decide whether or not he wanted to vote there and that's basically how he plays as town and i don't think that's scummy from him

[skitter30]

The worst or Gamma Emerald, those are my two picks
Gimme better wagons, it's how I get my kicks

VOTE: GEmerald

I can play that game also. The worst had 4 votes. He scum reads the worst but doesn’t join the larger wagon.

Maybe math was trying to shift focus off the worst?

this post basically reads like:

'bv brought up a legimate point so i'm going to negate it by bringing up a similar thing that math did and use it to make up reasons to scumread him'

like t doesn't really seem like you think this is a good reason to scumread bv for but you use this to push him quite a bit and demand that bv defend it a few posts later

overall i think bv seems townier of the two from that exchange

[skitter30]

i'm tending quite a lot towards gustavo now btw

[skitter30]

If anyone does think it’s skitter, or could be skitter, start posting shit cause I ain’t got anything

i also really hate that you keep saying it could be me but do nothing to like ... actually explain why you're scumreading me or like try to ge tme lynched in any way

like i don't really care that you're scumreading me because i know quite well that i'm basically unlynchable today, but i don't understand the way you're interacting with me - if i'm scummy, try to get me lynched and try to get other people to see it. if i'm not, then why are you bringing this up?

like you keep saying you're scumreading me but you can't seem to explain why or how and you don't seem to be doing anything about it so i don't get what you're trying to accomplish by saying this

[skitter30]

Is it just me that feels like there are a lot of moving parts in this claim? I find it a little hard to buy that worst and BV collectively decided that
1) worst has a guilty on BV
2) BV is going to fakeclaim a 1-shot BP role
3) worst isn't a cop or a tracker or anything, he's a GUNSMITH (???)

Like it just seems like a disjointed set of claims that reads more to me like "real thing that sort of clashes with fake thing" aka BV's real claim vs worst's weird fake claim rather than BV and worst going "okay! these are the things we're going to claim!"
Another point in favor of BV being town?

Is it crazy that I'm actually considering BV here >____>

I think duck scum is very likely as bussing anyways but then on off chance my track on him messed with (unfortunately not negligable with TW publicly claimed as PR) it holds

I'm having a lot of trouble seeing this tbh irregardless of my read on bv

Like I sont get why tw busses bv here and not the other way around - I dont think even with the towncred of bussing a partner that tw makes it to endgame; and hes going to be suspected for not being dead in a couple of days

Like why do they do this out of the blue? I dont know if scum banks everything on this

Also bv-personality-wise this doesn't really feel like a plan he was involved in. It isnt ... neat enough. I don't know how to explain that better

this is basically what i meant by that btw

like it has too many pieces that fit together badly and like it's just so very ... messy

and i feel like if bv had been involved in a fake-claim plan it would have been a lot more planend out, and just wouldn't have had so many dangling parts that don't make sense really

like this just isn't how i see him going about this

[skitter30]

i kinda want to vote gustavo now

realistically idk if i have it in me to reread isos/early-game tbh

like i want to and it's def a thing i'd usually be doing at this stage of the game but i don't think it's happening in the nearish future

[skitter30]

Unless somebody has info the worst is lying. Fos anyone who’s voted him or pushing for a claim. Especially a full claim.

But if tw has a guilty he should definitely put it this day phase.

this is also a pretty weird post.

'tw is probably lying but people who voted him or want a claim are suspicious' ???

[skitter30]

i'm rereading a lot of the game and i think gustavo was pretty well-positioned to coast after the tw guilty thing - basically nobody was scumreading him at that time.

probably the only person who better fits that profile of where scum would be during that guilty thing is like me

[skitter30]

VOTE: gustavo

i was giving him a lot of slack for having an annoying playstyle + stungun who can apparently fake distancing pretty damn well

and neither of these reasons really hold at this stage of the game when i townread just about everyone more

and rereading a lot of his posts were actually kinda scummy but i just wrote them off as him having an annoying playstyle

i think this makes the most sense

[skitter30]

Unless somebody has info the worst is lying

. Fos anyone who’s voted him or pushing for a claim. Especially a full claim.

But if tw has a guilty he should definitely put it this day phase.

this is also a pretty weird post.

'tw is probably lying but people who voted him or want a claim are suspicious' ???

That’s a huge misrep bro. I didn’t say it imply he’s lying. When somebody claims a PR you assume he’s telling the truth until somebody counters. I actually believed his claim hence me speaking out against people voting him.

That alone wiped all your town cred down the toilet because you aren’t a n00b and no way a n00b misreps something that bad.

@keyser/elephant. I really don’t envy your decision tomorrow. Skitter just threw himself back in the scum pool
After he had already dried himself off.

@keyser - what was your issue with me set voting? If I’m going to die, I’m
Not going to fight it.

for like the nineteenth time, i'm a she

what does the bolded mean then - you literally say he's lying unless people have relevant info

explain where i misrepped you

[skitter30]

Unless somebody has info the worst is lying.

Fos anyone who’s voted him or pushing for a claim. Especially a full claim.

But if tw has a guilty he should definitely put it this day phase.

[skitter30]

you say he's lying unless someone has informaton otherwise

idk what you're trying to say

[skitter30]

we seem to be arguing over the defintion of a word or something so i don't think quibbling over this point is going to be fruitful, although i absolutely don't understand why you're accusing me of misrepping when you all i did was rephrase your own post

[skitter30]

you literally say 'unless someone has info the worst is lying'

that to me sounds like you think the worst is lying unless we live in the special circumstance of someone having info. since there is no evidence of anyone having info i take that to mean you think tw is lying

i don't know how to get across my point better

[skitter30]

what do you think of gustavo's defeatism today?

[skitter30]

i didn't and i won't and i'm not going to be bullied into doing so

p-edit are you like completely ignoring the context ... ? (specifically of scum!tw and how town!math has a history of catching and power-lynching him)

[skitter30]

viewtopic.php?p=10255336#p10255336

viewtopic.php?p=10101346#p10101346

[skitter30]

Is it within Gustavo's scumrange to be playing like this right now?

i have no idea but that's what i'm wondering right now.

he just feels ... so defeatist and not-survivalistic

but idk who else it could be

[skitter30]

yeah but i townread them more than you, that's the thing

also i don't know if that's every time town!math and scum!tw played but that's a fair sampling of their recent games and if you read math's iso in both he basically catches tw and forces through lynches on him and is very good at making everyone else see his way

given the possible scumteams and the possible nks it makes a lot more sense to me that tw tried to kill math than like any of the other options

[skitter30]

cuz i think ep's reaction to the neighborhood think/tw's guilty is super super town and bv is kinda out of his scumrange imo and i dont' see him involved in that guilty-plan thing because it was too messy almost to have come from him

[skitter30]

you mean the 'just writing me off as town and sheeping me' bit? i'm still low-key paranoid that's what you're doing but i think i'm mostly over that; at least i don't really want to lynch you today over it and i think i just want to call you town today despite paranoia. and neither of us are getting nk'd tonight presumably if the game doesn't end so i'll have another day to deal with that if i have to

i wish this game had more useful nka, but all the nk's besides the first were basically the obvious ones

i thought ep's not-survivalism today was kinda townie - i really feel like he doesn't care if he gets lynched or not

i also wish nsg had posted more. ep had done nothing ai imo until the neighborizering thing. him being scum means that the neighborhood thing was a complete lie and that he's the rb and that he and tw had planned this like going back to like sometime mid-day2 i think

maybe i should check some of his scumgames, if he has any recent ones

btw there's another stungun scumgame - the transformers game in the theme park queue - he hard scumread one of his partners and lightly townread the other

[skitter30]

idk i think you've been kinda town and i liked that post you made and the effort you went through to make it.

i mostly townread you tbh because while a lot of what you did, especially early game, weren't super ai but i think the neighborizer thing and your attitude today in general have been super super town

(his point was more like - some scum will try to find someone that is being widely townread and mimic some of their points in order to have some sort of analysis that they think will be accepted by the game and that the townread player will like and possibly townread them for)

i've gotten some of my motivation back so i do think i want to confirm/check my read on you by looking at scumgames but i don't really think ur scum here honestly

[skitter30]

yeah i think this is basically where i want to go too; i really think ep during the neighboizer thing + guilty thing is really really town.

let's just be careful not to end the day yet since the conftown still wants to like reread all my posts i think

[skitter30]

in case that wasn't clear, that's l-1

[skitter30]

math actually scumnread mom and refused to vote her.

this never happened

the one and only time he talked about her or addressed her in his entire iso is:

Searching rask got me no where in the member search box

He literally linked his profile and wiki
Do you think it'd be easier if his page was stickied

you're accusing bv of being scum on the basis that his predecessor scumread flipped scum but didn't vote her when the oppurtunity arose - math lurked basically throughout day1 and wasn't exactly active and voting gamma instead of her at the following vc is not scum indicative imo. also he literally never stated a read on her so claiming he scumread her and avoided voting her isn't true

"Three may keep a secret, if two of them are dead."

Votecount 1.9

the worst(2)

~ Invisibility(31), Bernie Sanders(93)

skitter30(2)

~ Keyser Söze(105), Momrangal(27)

Nauci(2)

~ Shoshin(98), Irrelephant11(57)

Momrangal(2)

~ northsidegal(5), the worst(81)

Irrelephant11(2)

~ Nauci(39), skitter30(76)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Mathdino(58)


Not Voting (2): stungun0404(34), Gamma Emerald(45)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-02 17:10:00)

MOD REMINDERS

Still looking for a replacement for NSG.

[skitter30]

Since others know about the worst and math when the worst is scum, can somebody verify does the worst do this when he is town or could he doing this because math is his partner?

I tend to just dump math in the town bin and sort him later and that generally works for me (as he's generally town)

Subject: Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

Really!?!? Holding up is exactly why I think he could be scum haha

I mean Dino always becomes obv!town on page 2, and here he wasn't

EBWOP holding back

saaaame

Math can be a d2 sort. What he does is amazing and I get he needs to be in the swing of things to do it.

Subject: Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

Mathdino Mathdino and Mathdino

Fuck the fact I am sworn not to tunnel you until d2 ugh
Ok if you can deliver me a scumfuck today I'll hold off.

[skitter30]

It's not skitter. Even outside of her overall gameplay, she's not going to react the way she did to me as scum. I came in hard-townreading her and never wavered. I don't think a scum-Skitter responds by being continuously paranoid of me and trying to read me. She'd just be glad I'm townreading her.

qft btw

like i'm not going to try to undermine townreads on me at this stage of the game if i'm scum lol

--

Also, you originally made this point a few times before. He's just repeating what you said. Your basis was that you played with me and don't think I would make this play based on playstyle/personality. errant never played with me so I don't know where he's drawing this from.

I got some FishytheFish vibes there.

on a similar note - idk if scum!bv brings up fishythefish here, even in context of someone else, given that he knows i'm paranoid of him

context is that me/bv were in a hydra and we were down to the last scum and fishythefish repped in and one fo the tactics he used was sheeping someone widely townread instead of pushing his own points - like he used it as a way to get towncred and to show he was thinking townish thought processes

and we talked about that's how bv plays scum

and in this game if he's scum here he's using me as the widely townread person who he's sheeping/pocketing

but i don't think he brings that up as scum here (even in the context of someoen else) knowing that i'm paranoid about just that

like idk if he brings that up here knowing that'll fuel my paranoia here when keeping me pocketed is kinda his path to victory

i do know that one of my blindspots is that i can be pocketed, especially by people i like and just don't want to see as scum

bv kinda fits in that category - i really really don't want to mislynch him again.

so i'm trying super super hard to be objective here. i do admit to being paranoid. idk if i can ever get over that completely. and i've never played with scum!him so i don't really have as strong a grasp on his scumgame as he has on mine

but like, i just skimmed his iso in red flag - his most recent scumgame. he's a lot less nuanced. a lot more agenda-driven. he scumreads people who scumread him. his trajectory isn't nearly as nuanced as it is here; there's a lot less insight and analysis. he doesn't feel as real or sincere or motivated.

like one of the strongest towntells i found for him this game is that he pegged nauci as having an informed perspective - he was right for the wrong reasons. i don't know if he'd pick up on that as scum. if he did as scum anyways i think he pr reads her for it - i don't think he purposefully starts a thing with her over it as scum

[skitter30]

You are correct, that is bad memory, my fault, it was actually the worst. Which kind of makes it worse since supposedly math is good at catching the worst as scum...

he might have scumread him but i don't think he goes all-in on a tw scumread when he isn't really in the agme and can't really push it through conclusively

i don't think math voting gamma instead of tw at that time is significant

in constrast you say:

- 'mom votes ping me' (1678 wrt to her wagon)

- 'pretty sure i havne't had a mom scumread today' (2195)

- she shouldn't be wagoned while v/la 2267

- 'more reasons to dislike the mom wagon. i don't even have a read on mom but these reasons just suck' 2269

- 'Not that my opinions matter to anyone but my gut says mom flips town. The reasons are hella weak and the lack of a counter speaks volumes. ' 2320

- and then you vote her 2415

overall i think your trajectory is much worse than math's lack of one given that he flaked.

like math basically site-flaked. it wasn't specific to this game and i don't think it was ai. before you say maybe he did it on purpose sitewide for this game as scum - he still isn't really back and it's been weeks and he even flaked out of i think two towngames and he actualy likes playing town and i can't imagine doing him doing that unless there were significant real-life reasons

[skitter30]

people voting gustavo do you think he is
a) town that you just think should be lynched
b) scum that has actively given up on the game
c) scum that is trying to win by employing a honestly really risky strategy of begging to be lynched
d) B but hoping for an offchance of C

mostly b coupled with the fact that i think you and bv are less likely to be scum

[skitter30]

I do wish skitter had the time/energy to clarify if she thought BV was pocketing her y/n. I had thought once or twice that he probably was when I scumread him more

i got a lot of my motivation back, if it isn't apparent

i think i explained that as best i can

[skitter30]

gah idk UNVOTE:

[skitter30]

I can’t seem to find a game where skitter has been scum at all, let alone where bv was town. I’ll have to search from a computer. Without that this meta read on skitter’s attitude when playing as scum is clearly fabricated.

newbie 1787, micro 724, minis 1931, 1940, and 1946, the last of which was last august; bv was in none of them

[skitter30]

yeah idk if he literally asks to be hammered as scum

but the neighborhood things feels super super super town

[skitter30]

@gustavo can you talk about ep please?

[skitter30]

yeah errant.

how do you read them?

[skitter30]

yeah idk if he literally asks to be hammered as scum

but the neighborhood things feels super super super town

Okay, that's fair but it's still a small sample of his overall posts. His latest posts really just squicked me out.

It felt like he was trying to get us to lynch Gustavo but not actually commit to anything and save his credibility for LYLO to go up against me.

There's also his unvote after Not_Mafia was hammered and claim that he doesn't N_M was going to flip scum. I felt like he kinda defaulted to thinking I was scum despite calling me town. It's just a lot easier to fake being very town at certain points but outside of that, I didn't really think his behavior was town. I still think my arguments for town-Errant are good but I just don't feel as good about the read as I should if that makes any sense.

i wasn't really bothered by his recent posts, and i also think that the defeatism in them was kinda town too

i didn't really get the vibe you're getting from the bolded.

also i kinda liked his nm unvote - he could have just let the wagon go through, and his trepidation around the wagon matched my feelings wrt nm at that time

also were you following math's dynamic duo game a few months back? i was a bit, and ep rolled scum in one of them and basically just acquiesced to being lynched when he was under pressure and let his partner carry the game to a win, and he's like ... efforting here imo

[skitter30]

Is anyone familiar with skitter’s scum games? Does she like to bus/distance?

i absolutely would if i thought it would get scum farther overall, and i'm semi-decent at screwing with associatives

i don't think i could convincingly bus over like a month in real time starting from like the super super early posts of the game tho

like i would do it but i don't think it would look like this

[skitter30]

That wasnt the reason why i allowed myself to get lynched
I did that because I wasnt 100% sure who my partner was and with the interactions/claims that were out they had their own plan going on clearly, i thought that trying to push spmeone else could potentially harm their plan

Anyway thats all irrelephant (i say, while lambasting “the worst” jokes)

sorry if i got it wrong; i don't remember the exact circumstances offhand, i was only vaguely following it months ago but i'll prob go back and check at some point.

were you like a traitor or something?

[skitter30]

Why would town-EP ask to be lynched when me and Gustavo were facing much more suspicion? He'd know that if we were both lynched, town would win and he realistically has a chance of being the last townie standing. It's just suboptimal play from town.

On the other hand, why say it as scum? I think he anticipated that people's reactions would be closer to "well, scum wouldn't ask to be lynched so EP is even more town" than to "well, let's lynch him because he asked to be lynched."

idk, i read it as town who didn't want to go through the effort of efforting when they thought town would prob win it even if they were mislynched

like suboptimal, sure, but an understandable mindset i think given how i think ep feels about mafia in general (tends to lurk out, only in this game as part of a swap-replacement thing in the first place)

[skitter30]

Is anyone familiar with skitter’s scum games? Does she like to bus/distance?

i absolutely would if i thought it would get scum farther overall, and i'm semi-decent at screwing with associatives

i don't think i could convincingly bus over like a month in real time starting from like the super super early posts of the game tho

like i would do it but i don't think it would look like this

I mean pushing on mom, fighting gamma and the next day

playing the “see I told you” card

is something I’ve seen scum do and it’s what you basically did.

as town i'm actually that confident/cocky and i'll say i told you so when i think people are wrong and i'm right and people didn't listen to me. i'll pull up a bunch of examples if you want me to as town. i don't think i've ever said that as scum

i can't really fake cockiness as scum. like i can fake analysis but everyting is much more ... careful and methodological and i won't really do anything to rock the boat and i'm much much much more worried about how people percieve me - like i wont' go out of my way to antagnoize people by reminding them about how they were wrong and i was right.

as town i care about being right, more than i care about winning, and i'll tell you if you're wrong and i really really really don't care what you think about me as a result

[skitter30]

viewtopic.php?p=10306165&user_select%5B ... #p10306165

viewtopic.php?p=10081315&user_select%5B ... #p10081315

[skitter30]

So if anyone wants to lynch me today and (maybe, probably) Gustavo tomorrow, I’d sign that bill if you catch my drift. And i get that BV thinks that “REAL town should NEVER accept that they get lynched in this situation” but i genuinely have no idea who the hell it could be, and I have a godawful track record endgame, and as town in general

so i am not about to tryhard just to fight a losing battle with whoever ends up in lylo and lose this game.

idk

this makes me feel like he thinks he's a lylo liability and would rather that he gets mislynched now where it won't lose the game than tomorrow where it would be

like i don't know if he thinks about how that necessarily positions the rest of the game the same way that you do

[skitter30]

and that he doesn't want to go through the effort tomorrow of avoiding that and that he'd rather get mislynched today without much effort than tomorrow after efforting

[skitter30]

One final thing, to both skitter and BV: i know i made a couple of comments that you guys are extrapolating my defeatist attitude from but its obviously not like that (see: effort)

I care about the game (again clearly) and i was really frustrated at how keyser was doubting me and i will feel like shit if i get lynched in lylo

um i didn't see this post, sorry

but yeah that's basicaly what i'm getting from you

you care and are efforting and trying to solve it but don't want to be the lylo mislynch so if you're bound to get lynched you'd rather it happened today

is that right?

[skitter30]

Mom is the only woman in this game Gustavo has never misgendered! Y'all might not put stock in it, but I do. VOTE: Gustavo harder

i don't think this is remotely ai

[skitter30]

i really really don't think it's ep

and this is townie af from gustavo too

idk maybe it's just bv?

[skitter30]

no i unvoted

[skitter30]

it's you/bv/gus

[skitter30]

whoops, sorry

[skitter30]

honestly i'm kinda at an impasse because i don't think it's any of you

it's nice that there are two clears because otherwise this would be much much worse

whoever it is has played super super well

i'm going to go and be productive irl now but i'm going to continue thinking about this obviously

[skitter30]

I don't know if I can convince you to re-assess Errant when I myself am so unsure and there's a fair bit of evidence against Gustavo/Stungun. I think the best option is to flip Gustavo. If we're right, awesome. If we're wrong, then I at least know for sure that Errant is scum. I can buy that you townread Errant harder than me if he's actually town. But I don't think you'll lynch a town-me over a scum-Errant. If he's scum, there's definitely going to be something I can point out that'll explain why he's scum to get you to re-evaluate. @skitter.

on some sort of gut, fundemental level i'm townreading him. like i can't really make the game make sense right now if he's scum. idk i just don't see it. i don't want to lynch him today. like i agree that the reaction to the neighbhorhood thing is the towniest part of his iso but like ... i don't really scumread the rest of it; at best i consider it nai. like he hasn't done anything scummy and parts of his iso are like bleeding town in the context of scum!tw and the guilty and all that jazz

and gustavo's being super town right now; i don't know if the last scum gets that pissed and just votes themselves, twice now. or like keeps the vote on him.

amongst the three of you he was prob set up the best to coast after a tw scumflip and his trajectories on flipped scum are kinda gross but like i'm townreading him today.

and i think you're kinda out of your scumrange and you just feel super nuanced in a way that i think you probably have trouble faking, especially over a sustained period of time. that and the tw-guilty thing doesn't feel like something you were involved in planning - like we tend to approach the game kinda similarly and like that's never how i fake a guilty with my partner because my goal would be to coast after and it feels too messy for that.

at the same time i'm very aware that your path-to-victory if scum is basically through pocketing me so i can't just call you a townread and call it a day because like if you *are* scum here that's how you win

(and i don't even know if like appealing to me here is AI here because if you're town that's basically what you need to do too)

i guess i'm somewhere like gustavo > you > ep but i don't feel confident in it

[skitter30]

and like this has been a really really good game for town and i just don't want us to collectively choke and lose

[skitter30]

aside i think this is hands-down the longest game i've ever been in

[skitter30]

can you explain again what you're not liking about errant's recent posts?

[skitter30]

bv, this might be a weird thing to say but i'm getting the vibe that you kinda want me to scumread errant

also i kinda skimmed thru tw's iso again and he was shading your slot a lot when you replaced in, complaining that he didn't want to read ur posts - he had to have decided that he wanted to shade his partner basically from when u repped in

also tw's plan kinda imploded because bernie incidentally tracked him, so i'm thinking what he wanted to happen in an ideal universe - you get lynched. i'm still having a very hard believing he thought could coast on that, or that scum!you didn't bus him given that you were in a much better spot than him. i don't htink he was planning on getting lynched - he was setting this up for a day or so and was using that to coast

(like even before you repped in - now that i think about it i don't think he concocts this plot with an empty-math slot overnight. although tbf he could have just had a general 'claim pr' plan that only solidified after you rep in)

i'm trying to get over my paranoia because i think ur very very likely town here on play but it's just not something i can dismiss easily because like ... everyone's very town rn and pocketing me is how scum!you wins so i don't want to just discount that possibility

also balance-wise i'm pretty sure 1sbp needs to be a thing against goon/1srb/encryptor given nea, tracker, oddnight doc.

(i'm comparing to a normal mini where scum had: ninja + 2 goons against full rb, full gunsmith, full vig, full vanilla cop, and fbi agent (checks for sks))

[skitter30]

Conspiracy theory. Skitter/tw post claim is scum theater.

lol

[skitter30]

also can we all chillax?

[skitter30]

i hate having hammer :/

[skitter30]

what i'm stuck on with u is that i don't think scum literally asks to be hammered to end the game here

[skitter30]

like this just doesn't come from scum i think?

[skitter30]

also u just don't seem like the giving-up type

p-edit ok nm this can come from scum!you i guess

[skitter30]

but like if you're scum literally telling me to end the game

[skitter30]

and i just can't imagine scum doing this

but then you have a mindset that i don't really undertand so maybe this is a thing u'd do?

[skitter30]

bleh maybe i should read ur scumgame

[skitter30]

I agree that he seems to want you to scumread EP even as he says Gustavo is the lynch

I also don't know why one of the two blowups has to be fake

I think his associations with the flipped scum are very bad

yeah the first is kinda weirding me out a bit

he's saying from his (town) pov one of the two is scum and is ate'ing

who are u talking about in the third statement?

[skitter30]

yeah he's saying it's nai

but i just can't imagine scum litereally asking to end the game? it's just such a foreign mindset to me that i have a lot of trouble seeing that come from scum. like i can see giving up and lurking and letting the lynch just happen but actively encouraging it is just ???? to me

but i have to take into account that the way he plays in general just doesn't really make much sense to me so maybe it isn't ai? idk

[skitter30]

yeah i would just lurk it out and let the lynch happen without trying too hard.

also bv efforting this hard is town indicative for him i think

i don't think bv's associations are bad tbh

[skitter30]

i guess i kinda want gustavo now? i don't feel super confident on this tho

also i dont really want to end the day till keyser has done his thing

[skitter30]

sorry, not trying to be frustrating, just trying to explain where i'm at

wrt errant - like the things you're bringing up i just don't think are scummy really. like i think they're more playstyle/mindset-indicative than alignment indicative

i do agree that we're basically going around in circles and i don't think that most of the discussion today has been very edifying tbh
--

1. Setup suggests I'm town (1-shot BP + Odd night doc)
2. TheWorst faking a guilty on me if I were scum is basically gamethrowing at that point.
3. You are correct that if I were scum, I'd have planned it differently.
4. I would not have pushed Nauci and Irrelephant as scum. In fact, I'd consider it very suboptimal since attacking good townies always puts you in the spotlight.
5. My reasons for scumreading Nauci on being informed.
6. My play around Momrangal/TheWorst wagons. I'd not be so indecisive. I'd anticipate that one of them were getting lynched and just push that person.
7. Finally, most importantly, I can't sustain this level of activity and gamesolving over so, so long as scum.

yeah these are all pretty convincing tbh, especially #7. like i don't think you *effort* this for this long as scum tbh.

--

You not wanting to "discount the possibility of me being scum" because scum me would townread you is really kinda ridiculous at this point. I'd townread you no matter what my alignment is. Continuing to bring up something completely null and getting paranoid over it when literally everything points to me being town is something I'm just not understanding. Yeah, I'd call you town even if I'm scum, so what?

yeah i was kinda coming around to this POV earlier, maybe i didn't word it well - i shouldn't really be reading this as ai either way because you'd townread me here as town and you'd townread me here as scum so it isn't really conclusive wrt ur alignment

--

i think i'm basically at the point where i want to hammer gustavo but i'm kinda wanting for keyser to finish his thing

--

WIFOM says: scum-skitter wouldn't dare try to pump scum propaganda into our minds this hard, with the likely chance of an angry town backlash.

Agree/disagree?

i thought that there were a lot of anti-associatives between them through much of day1

[skitter30]

EP, I hope you feel better soon!

keyser, are you close to finishing your read-through? i'm kinda ready to end the day (and hopefully the game) - i want to vote gustavo and i'm basically waiting for you to be ready to end the day too