Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[GuiltyLion]

12

I like Enigma, teacher felt a wee bit LAMIST for a first impression

please nobody fuck this up I don't want to get embroiled in "was that an intentional mistake" for the rest of this day phase

[GuiltyLion]

13

Irrelephant it's good to see you again

and WhyMafia are you scum again

[GuiltyLion]

30

personally I kinda like the pressure generated by the progression as it generates info in people might decide to unilaterally throw, people might get us uncomfortably close to finishing w/o reads on everyone, people might make a 'mistake' and we can argue whether there was scum motivation in throwing at that point, etc

there's no reason to totally ignore it at the moment I think, and it'll be hard to generate pressure via other means with no votes

we need to be really proactive about who we want to vote and our reads, so we are held accountable as they change from day to day. rn my vote's on WhyMafia

[GuiltyLion]

32

also if we do designate a few people to guarantee that we win the challenge as we wrap up the day phase, I think we can trust even if they are scum that they won't throw, as throwing at the point where we can no longer save it should be a policy lynch tonight if it happens

[GuiltyLion]

23

42

guilty you think whymafia is scummy? why?

His "we probably need to experiment a bit" felt like the kind of thing scum would say trying to pretend to be figuring out the challenge and/or give them an excuse to mess up. realllyyy light ping though I wouldn't put much stock in it

and I'm with ya on Enigma now, agree with your 48 and I didn't like the way he phrased his question in 91 towards WhyMafia, the way he provides his own explanation but then makes it a question anyway reads like scum trying to pretend to sort

[GuiltyLion]

24

jeff gordon 4 lyfe

[GuiltyLion]

25

also this feels really LAMIST

3

This challenge on Day 1 is horrible. We gain nearly no alignment info out of it.

like the reason we have less alignment info in this setup is because we don't have traditional lynch mechanics with visible votes/wagons, not because we have to count

and even in a regular Day 1, you don't really gain much solid alignment info until after the first flip. like I don't feel particularly concerned about this challenge, calling it "horrible" just seems melodramatic

[GuiltyLion]

26

townreads [though at this stage still entirely subject to being revoked swiftly and with little warning]: Irrelephant, Feysal, ofrhz

i would vote you, change my mind: Enigma, Not Known 15, Chickadee

[GuiltyLion]

15

28
Guilty, why the TR on ofrhz?

-proactive sharing of townreads on Irrelephant/Feysal
-131 is goodposting

[GuiltyLion]

16

50

It's a stupid suggestion, and maybe LAMIST.

At this point we know. If that and the numbers at the top of posts aren't enough, you deserve to be lynched as a burden to Town

.

Testing to get away with shit is dumb too. Why spend your social capital on low-value targets?

lmaoooo

[GuiltyLion]

17

45

I am suspicious of Kokichis second numbers interrupt- you'd assume that someone who knows that they made a mistake once reads the rules more carefully.

SCUMPOST ALERT

1)

do

you assume that someone who made a mistake is more likely to read the rules carefully? I actually would assume the exact opposite!
2) If you think Kokichi faked their mistakes, just come out and say it. Don't dance around the accusation behind some vague shade
3) Glad to see that you're "suspicious". What's the point of this post? Are you trying to convince us that Kokichi deserves a vote tonight?

[GuiltyLion]

18

VOTE: Not Known 15

[GuiltyLion]

19

vote Not Known 15

[GuiltyLion]

216

201

@Guilty and @Kokichi - what do you think was at all vague about NK15's shade? It was pretty clear and sunny to me.

If Kokichi faked the mistake in order to purposefully throw the current count, then he's scum. Full stop.
If Kokichi genuinely made a mistake, he could be careless town or careless scum.

Do you get the sense from Not Known 15 that he's actually expressing whether he thinks:
a) whether Kokichi faked the mistake?
b) whether Kokichi is scum?

Because I don't think he's actually taking a firm stance on either of those questions. He's just calling it "suspicious". He's implying that he

could

have faked it, but not saying that he necessarily did.

Heck, look at his clarification:

I am not sure that Kokichi faked their second mistake, but it is a possibility. It isn't a great scumtell though(but it makes Kokichi slightly scummy).

this is so waffley and wishy-washy. Which makes it scummy. He's not committing to firm opinions and giving himself room to either scumread Kokichi or back down if it goes too far against thread vibe. Not "clear and sunny" at all.

[GuiltyLion]

217

202

Also the "point" of the post seems pretty obvious - to advance the game by talking about suspicions. What were the points of your posts if not the same?

I didn't ask you what you thought the point of his post was. I asked Not Known 15 because I wanted his answer. Why are you jumping in like this, especially when NK15 didn't even explicitly answer this question towards him?

further, obviously yes that post can be said to "advance the game". But it ties back to my point about being wishy-washy and not taking firm stances. What is gained from simply calling somebody "suspicious"?? If he's trying to sell us on a Kokichi vote tonight, he's not doing a good job of it, because that's not a case and it's not convincing. If he's not actually scumreading Kokichi at all, then the post is useless directionless shade. and it's not directed at Kokichi, so he's clearly not trying to directly sort Kokichi himself.

So I find it a pointless post, one that's much more likely to come from scum trying to blend in and pretend to sort. In contrast, my posts are pretty explicitly meant to call out scummy behavior from NK15 quite directly, in the hopes that other townies will see what I'm saying and perhaps flip him tonight.

204

And even that is wrong, because Kokichi SAID they had read the rules.

Oh, sorry guys. I should read from

now

on.

a) No, he said he "should" read the rules, not that he did. So you are the one who is wrong
b) setting that aside, I'm not here to play semantics games, I'm here to play mafia. What's your actual disagreement here? Are you saying we should believe that Kokichi did in fact read the rules very carefully, and then purposefully faked a mistake? Or do you think he read the rules carefully and yet forgot them and made a genuine mistake?

I think there's little reason to assume Kokichi read the rules carefully given that he had already posted in thread without reading the challenge/rules, and it's more likely he just made a second mistake. If you disagree with me on that, explain why - am I to believe that you think this post means Kokichi could not have possibly missed the rule about the count having to be the first thing in your post?

If you don't disagree with that then what are you arguing about?

[GuiltyLion]

218

I don't like the amount of coasting currently going on in this game, especially as we get halfway through the day and continue to spam count. Very few people are actually trying to pressure anyone or express reads, and I feel we are speeding towards 325 and thread-lock, and then what will essentially be a random collection of votes tonight. randommidget hasn't even posted in thread yet.

I'd like everyone to say who they currently want to vote tonight and why

[GuiltyLion]

223

@guilty- Re385: I thought NK15’s post was a clear, and light, scumread. What you are criticizing as wishywashy I view as an honest portrayal that it was not significant but still worth discussing. Difference of opinion.

More important, re386: I didn’t jump in to answer. I waited literal hundreds of posts until after (1) NK posted without answering, (2) someone else echoed it, and (3) a third person asked me for a read on you. So it’s those three things that led me to talk about it.. Why are you so angry about it given theose three facts?

I don't believe in things that are "not significant yet worth discussing". Especially since there should be a relatively clear binary on either he faked it or he didn't. You can't have it both ways, yet NK15 - and now you as well - are trying to have it both ways.

And you did jump in to answer a question that wasn't directed at you, none of those things change that fact or matter to me. The question was towards NK15, I don't really care at all what your opinion about it is. And am I really "so angry"? Tone policing much? I am being direct and aggressive sure, but not "angry", and it's noteworthy that you're trying to frame it as such.

Re whether Kokichi knowingly screwed up a second time - not important to me. I’m slightly inclined to NK15’s view - that someone who knows they “should” read is more inclined to do so. I also question whether the second error was a fake “whoops”slip. But my read on Kokichi is pretty weak and primarily questions.

how is it not important to you? If he knowingly screwed up, he's scum!

and this second point is barely cogent to me. Is it alignment indicative to be someone who "should" read? like personally I think scum generally feel slightly more inclined to read carefully and make sure they understand what's going on, but honestly I see that point as fairly NAI overall as some people are careful/meticulous as either alignment and some people just don't care.

At this point, as for who I’d vote, it’s kind of a PoE pool of who I wouldn’t vote. Most people are still open game and I don’t have a scumread outside the margin of error. But I’m at you, Kokichi, pine, midget, and chickadee.

Nice dodge! Which of those five would you actually vote? You can't vote 5 people, you need to choose one.

And what's the case on pine? Are we just enforcing a "anyone who screwed up is more likely to be scum" policy? That seems really shallow.

[GuiltyLion]

224

Also teacher, I feel like you've ignored the point of the second half of my 386 (or we're speaking past eachother). You quoted that Kokichi post about how he "should read from now on" to suggest that I am wrong for thinking it's more likely Kokichi just genuinely missed the rule about count being at the top of your posts. But then you say you're not sure whether you think it was a "fake" slip, that you have mostly questions right now.

If you're not sure, then how are you going to say I'm "wrong" for coming to the opposite conclusion and not putting much stock in Kokichi's 111? Do you believe 111 actually implicates Kokichi? If not, then why bring it up?

[GuiltyLion]

232

okay honestly nearly all of your replies feel semantic but I do like that you acknowledge that it's NAI. Here's my attempt to clarify then I will similarly drop this

1) I would say weak scumreads are worth discussing. All of my scumreads are fairly weak as well. However I would say being timid or waffling while discussing them (what I felt NK was doing) is not worth posting. Even if you feel it's weak, own it. Like I said, what I especially didn't like about NK's original shade was that he was accusing Kokichi of faking the mistake but not actually doing so in such explicit terms.

IMO town should always aim to make your point and have a goal in mind with how you want people to respond. Just noodling about and throwing hedgey shade gives scum room to participate without being held accountable - especially when there are no vote mechanics. I am going to take people to task for their opinions to drill down into why they're saying what they're saying and whether they genuinely believe it or not. The only way to do that is to be aggressive, doubly so when I can't start a wagon and create extra heat.

2) If you say I'm angry and therefore I'm more likely to be scum, and I say "nuh uh", that's a substantive disagreement over something that could be alignment indicative. Not semantic. Much like if you say Kokichi faked it and I say he didn't, that's a substantive disagreement over potentially AI evidence.

but If you say "Kokichi may have faked it or he may not have, but he did say he ~should~ read", that feels like you're arguing over NAI semantics when you don't even disagree with my point, which was I didn't think Kokichi faked it.

3) fair enough. I guess I misread your post and assumed you were saying "whether or not he screwed up is unimportant", but makes more sense if you're saying "I don't/can't know whether he screwed up or not".

4) the underlined red text is for flair to get reactions and make the game more fun, dude. I project strength in conviction because that's the best way to create pressure and make people respond and give opinions. it doesn't necessarily mean I'm lock-scum on NK15 for the rest of the game, and it seems absurd to me that you'd even think that I am. just so we're straight, I can and almost certainly will change my opinions as the game goes on.

[GuiltyLion]

233

also Teacher, if you base reads on how much they're contributing to town, then I'd like your opinion on Enigma's contributions to town

[GuiltyLion]

199

414 is a great post, solidifying ofrhz townread. I was getting town vibes from my back and forth with teacher as well and pitching it as a TvT unprompted at this stage feels real town. Contrast to Pine and WhyMafia, who both tried to stir further shit up on the basis of my back and forth with teacher.

Townies: {Irrelephant, ofrhz, teacher, Feysal, Kokichi}
not really scummy but wouldn't cry if they flipped: {random, Mylo, Enigma}
scummy: {NK15, Pine, WhyMafia, Chickadee}

WhyMafia

- do you remember the last game we played together? I don't see how I'm being any more tryhard in this one than that one.

Pine

- why the TR on Chickadee?

if people aren't feeling the NK15 vote I'm down to vote Chickadee tonight since there's interest there amongst my townreads

[GuiltyLion]

200

whee

[GuiltyLion]

208

Guilty why do you townread me? Unbiased I've been null so far considering I've messed up and I haven't been active because I've been busy. It's a bit of a weird read.

I don't think the mess up is scummy, if anything I agree with 159 that it's more likely you'd be more careful than to mess up twice in your opening as mafia
I liked the teacher townread and challenge to Pine in 437
also I probably shouldn't TR this but the tone just feels genuine, like 596 just feels like a sassy post that scum wouldn't make

[GuiltyLion]

209

Chick's error and response to it seems genuine, like she's honestly pissed at herself.

can you dig deeper into this?

bc I don't see it as being hard to fake at all

[GuiltyLion]

210

AHHH, I feel like just going for Chick for it but mistakes do happen...

I'm not scumreading Chick for the mistake so much as the active lurking, the already-discussed fact that she townread Irrelephant for a reason that wasn't true (said he was careful about posts per page when he had already messed up posts per page), and asking you for thoughts in 726 just feels cautious/lazy when she hasn't given many reads herself and there's a ton of other things she could have been commenting on or participating in rather than just prompting a lurker for more content.

Plus her anger at being scumread for showing up immediately after another mistake kinda feels to me like "scum caught for bad reasons" anger.

[GuiltyLion]

251

211
@GL I don't actually haha, can you link?

flipless nightless

[GuiltyLion]

252

I wish more players would comment on chickadee's mistake, kokichi oma's interrupting the spamcounting, and teacher's mistake around that time. It's definitely at least a little AI and not a lot else is, so please @everyone comment on that or point me to something more interesting to talk about

it's hard for me to put a ton of stock either way in Chickadee's mistake, but it by no means looks unfakeably genuine to me - having a hard time understanding Pine's townread there, it feels forced. Like to the point where if Chickadee is town then I think Pine may be scum giving a tactical townread for buddying/towncred purposes. And I agree that Chickadee showing up immediately again after the second mistake also looked unusual. Plus her defense seemed to miss the point of what you were saying - she said she was busy and couldn't be monitoring/counting constantly and this wasn't AI, but your original point was that she was around to jump in again as soon as the count got reset.

Kokichi's interrupting was dangerous but I don't see it as scummy

teacher's mistake I see as likely a real mistake, I've had other posts show up with no p-edit before mine in other games

[GuiltyLion]

253

I'm totally fine with voting any of {NK/Chickadee/Pine/Mylo} but would prefer NK/Chickadee as I think they are the most actively scummy whereas Mylo just hasn't really played yet and Pine is always kinda standoffish and scummy. Chickadee's "hey you're a lurker where is your content" question to Mylo looks to me like it could be either SvS or SvT, but either way it looks worse on Chickadee than Mylo. But if you all hard commit to Mylo then I'll vote him instead, most of all I want a decent 4/5 person consensus on a wagon to reduce the odds of someone else randomly getting lynched. If we fail to come up with a plan and we have a smattering of votes across the board, higher odds for town to get flipped and it's easier for scum to be able to explain away tactical votes

[GuiltyLion]

254

I'll bump it up to 255

[GuiltyLion]

255

and there we go

[GuiltyLion]

257

Chick's error and response to it seems genuine, like she's honestly pissed at herself.

this is the part that I was focusing more on

she could easily be honestly pissed at herself
she could also easily be scum pretending

don't see why you're particularly inclined to choose the former and - speaking of words in one's mouth - I don't see where I said you were unassailably locktowning her

[GuiltyLion]

259

so to align here, you're saying it could be fake, but you don't think it is, therefore you're townreading her

and I'm saying the fact that it could easily be fake (in my opinion) gives me little reason to townread it. hell she could even be scum who honestly messed up and is pissed at an unintentional mistake making her look worse

so therefore I don't really get why you want to give her a townread based on that and therefore I could see it as a scum-motivated townread. I still don't really see where I've blown anything out of proportion or context

[GuiltyLion]

280

I'll vote Chickadee tonight unless something radically changes in the next 45 posts or the count gets reset (at this point, we're close enough to deadline where I think a mess-up should be strongly considered for policy lynch - though I also wouldn't say I'm 100% committed to that yet)

NK15 are you still planning on voting Pine tonight?

[GuiltyLion]

283

lol given Chick and Pine's latests post I'm actually totally down to OMGUS lynch Pine instead

like, what a terrible case on me

"Throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks"
- what points have I abandoned, which points were not good, which points look like something I didn't genuinely believe was indicative

"Moving to dismiss or discredit anyone who disagrees with him"
- who have I dismissed or discredited besides your Chickadee townread?

"bullshit cases, attempt to stifle dissent"
- which case was bullshit? why weren't you pushing back on my "bullshit cases" earlier?
- i don't stifle dissent, i welcome it. the strongest ideas are forged in the iron of debate. come at me and dissent all you want.

"pissy that the case on Chickadee doesn't have traction"
- Chickadee is my compromise lynch and I actually feel 809 is sorta town on first pass. NK15 is the lynch I want the most. This point isn't cogent with the rest of my ISO and I have no idea where the idea of me being "pissy" about people not buying Chickadee is coming from. Like, Chickadee is the easiest lynch at the moment and I'm more sheeping it than driving it.

also you never explained where I misrepped your Chickadee townread. Did you back down on that because you realized you were wrong, or what?

[GuiltyLion]

284

And I wasn't the only person asking lurkers for content. Mylo just happened t be around when I asked so I asked them directly. Someone who took issue with that - can you tell me why it was bad? And don't just say that it was bad. Actually give me a reason why. I don't actually feel like I have concrete things I can defend myself on.

for the record here though, it's not that asking lurkers for content is bad in and of itself, it's that it's really the only thing you've done and it looks worse when there's nothing town in your ISO alongside it. There's been more juicy topics of discussion that you've ignored entirely, and your scumreads are all just people who haven't played the game. It feels like you're playing safe and not picking fights or getting your hands dirty.

the thing I liked about your 809 is that the "feels like people are slipping through the cracks" concern is consistent with the rest of your play today. but if you're town you should actually weigh in on the interesting questions and flesh out your scumreads. Do you agree with the consensus Irrelephant/teacher townreads? What's your stance on Kokichi and Pine and Not Known 15?

[GuiltyLion]

285

his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

and like...

I've never been the one to push Chickadee on the basis of the mistake?? I've just said your townread on her for it is bad.

like this just reads like flagrant bullshit, like if you're town and seriously suggesting this then you must not be reading the game at all. I explicitly pushed against pushing on other people who made mistakes - defended Kokichi, even defended YOU YOURSELF in 392 here:

And what's the case on pine? Are we just enforcing a "anyone who screwed up is more likely to be scum" policy? That seems really shallow.

[GuiltyLion]

300

did you guys get the same loose town vibes from Chickadee that I did from her latest posts? I'm switching to Pine

[GuiltyLion]

310

306

300

did you guys get the same loose town vibes from Chickadee that I did from her latest posts? I'm switching to Pine

Your whole case on me revolves around my TR of Chickadee, and now you're getting Town vibes from her? Are you fucking kidding me?

Uhhh, the whole case you being scum was that your townread looked fake on a lynchbaity slot and then you made a completely garbage case against me... so Chickadee actually winding up town is 100% consistent with that theory

There's no way you'd be this bad as town to not understand that. And way to ignore my reply completely

Irrelephant - since this may be my last post before 325, I'll vote NK15 if there's more support aside from you in the next 15 posts. Otherwise sticking with Pine since I think there's still more consensus there.

[GuiltyLion]

319

actually I'll be around to guarantee 325, anyone else? I think technically I could run it at this point and I'll do that if no one shows up in the next 2 hours, but I'll wait a little bit to see if anyone else has Final Words

also I'll go for NK15 with ofrhz and Irrelephant on board. He says Pine is bad for not making 5 posts in a row, then when corrected, says it "doesn't feel like Pine wants to do it"? blech.

VOTE: NK15

[GuiltyLion]

324

We Got It From Here... Thank You 4 Your Service

also Enigma checking in with last thoughts there reads town to me

[GuiltyLion]

325

!!! woohoo!

[GuiltyLion]

327

lmao I'm giving it a zero percent chance we can make it to 1080

if it's not 325 then I blame the mod

also motion to continue counting for the rest of the game for kicks

[GuiltyLion]

More content later when I get to a computer but couple quick thoughts on the challenge:
- I don't see a strategy here other than nominating people we think are most likely to be town to take the guess
- unilaterally guessing without a vote/approval to be the guesser should be seen as a scumclain
- while the odds are against us, I think the benefit of this challenge is that we gain some small alignment indicative evidence if someone guesses a number correctly. I think scum would be heavily incentivized to choose wrong, especially if they are the third guess (bc I don't think the towncred from guessing right would be enough at this stage to carry through to endgame victory, so not sure it would be worth it to them to allow another fortunate townie to control the votes/act as named town), so if someone gets a number right they should be seen as more likely town

Other quick takes are NSG looks townie from the readslist and I'm resetting my ofrhz townread after last night. Also will have questions for people based on their votes in a bit when I get to computer

[GuiltyLion]

@Irrelephant11: My not-NK15 was an intentional vote as I think consensus lynch is bad and tells us nothing.

right so I disagree with this because I think I learned a fair amount from consensus lynch, including the fact that that you decided to vote elsewhere despite what Irrelephant pointed out in 879 - that this vote provides you personally with no additional info. What did you learn by voting elsewhere?

I also saw a couple other votes that I want to press on:

I think NK15 is a saboteur, and will compromise there because I don't think I can get GL lynched.

If you thought NK15 was a saboteur, why didn't you mention him at all in your ISO yesterday even once? Why would my interactions with him have made any sense as SvS? Why was NK15 specifically more likely to be a saboteur for "low contribution" when there are plenty of other slots with as much or less contribution?

I may be already biased on Pine but I really didn't like how he suggested he thought NK15 was a saboteur here, it feels like scum bluffing a scumread because they knew it was a mislynch.

"I want to consolidate on something I think has a chance of going through."

Similarly, you also did not mention NK15 at all yesterday. If you wanted to consolidate on something, why did you let everyone else pick the target during day phase yesterday? It seems like you had no preferences of your own whatsoever for who you personally thought was scum or wanted to lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

Here was my last will:

If I'm trapped, give my love to the townies.

If we get a NK15 scumflip then I was probably killed for being obvtown by pushing on him, wouldn't put too much stock in my other reads. Probably look for people who avoided commenting on NK at all yet voted for him, as I bet scum would want to distance vote if they think he's going down.

If we get a NK15 townflip and I'm killed, it might mean scum was in my periphery - look at WhyMafia and Chickadee? Definitely push on NSG because she is easily capable of putting in a ton of work and obv-towning if she needs to. I sorta doubt scum!Pine would agree to kill me here as I think that would look poorly on him and he'd probably think he could 1v1 me.

If someone else (Pine?) is lynched, I'd look at the voters on that wagon as regardless of NK's alignment (town mislynch or maf), scum probably chose the other lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

and while I agree sharing wills is not a bad idea, why did you ask first without posting yours?

[GuiltyLion]

also I have some ~ thoughts ~ about 878 but since Irrelephant wants Kokichi's opinion, I'll hold on to those until Kokichi replies first

[GuiltyLion]

also, I'm not sure I full on scumread ofrhz yet, but I agree with NSG that they are a lot less townie than I originally thought when I reviewed their ISO. And I would look hard at them on a Pine scumflip because I think this post:

316

I think I prefer VOTE: not known 15 right now.

I will be here for the next two hours

was fairly instrumental in solidifying a NK15 lynch instead of Pine (yes, I know Irrelephant asked explicitly for it, but at the time he was the only person to support NK15 over other targets in the conversation in Pine/Chickadee, I see ofrhz as the first follower). And this preference wasn't really substantiated - ofrhz what's your current stance on Pine and Chickadee?

[GuiltyLion]

GL distorts what I said again. Shocker.

I didn't mention NK15 yesterday because I didn't mention much of anything. The last week or so were rough for my activity site-wide. I also misunderstood the ruleset, and didn't realize it would be a closed, vote-by-PM setup. Then I didn't realize that our votes (and reasons) would become public.

Yeah, there was a bit of a self-serving angle to my NK15 vote. Obviously. I thought I'd have a chance after the challenge was complete to argue against you, and then when I didn't, I didn't think you'd get lynched out of nowhere. So I compromised for the most likely alternative to myself, which I knew was a bad idea. Reviewing the cases made on NK15, I came to a conclusion that I was comfortable voting there, and added my own thoughts.

If you could do us all a favor and not distort, exaggerate, or misrepresent others' opinions, I'd appreciate it. Don't presume to speak for me.

Where did I distort what you said the first time? You've literally never adequately addressed this

Where did I distort what you said a second time? Like I asked you questions, where am I "speaking" for you?! Seriously,

point this out.

also for someone who suggested we should lynch people who are "burdens to town" for not understanding the count challenge, you seem to be not understanding a ton about this entire set-up (voting mechanics, last will, etc). All you've contributed in this post is snark and accusations of being misrepped which you've failed to explain clearly or substantiate in any serious way. And if you want to talk misreps, explain that point you made yesterday about me "jumping on" Chickadee on the basis of her mistake?

I can't take you seriously unless you give any evidence whatsoever that you're reading the game and playing with good intentions, I'm seeing absolutely none so far and as a result I'm also having a hard time seeing myself being able to vote anyone else at this point.

[GuiltyLion]

259

so to align here, you're saying it could be fake, but you don't think it is, therefore you're townreading her

and I'm saying the fact that it could easily be fake (in my opinion) gives me little reason to townread it. hell she could even be scum who honestly messed up and is pissed at an unintentional mistake making her look worse

so therefore I don't really get why you want to give her a townread based on that and therefore I could see it as a scum-motivated townread. I still don't really see where I've blown anything out of proportion or context

to be 100% clear, here is where I addressed your first accusation of distorting what you said

if you disagree with any of this as a fair account of what happened then the burden is on you to show us where I distorted anything.

The most charitable read I can give you here is you were confused and misinterpreted my post here:

it's hard for me to put a ton of stock either way in Chickadee's mistake, but it by no means looks unfakeably genuine to me - having a hard time understanding Pine's townread there, it feels forced

to somehow mean that I said that

you

said it was unfakeably genuine. But if you attempted a serious reread of this sentence without wanting to get in a fight with me, you'd realize and understand that that's

not

what I said.

[GuiltyLion]

Dude I so do not have time in my life for this. I run a children's summer camp set to serve almost 1500 kids this year, and I barely have time to play this game once. I do NOT have time to relitigate every post or hold your hand through every point.

That's cool, I hope the camp is going well this year

but how about if you don't have time to explain yourself clearly you put more effort into explaining yourself clearly, reading people's posts that you are attacking, and you don't make points that are completely non-cogent with both your prior words or my own

Examples using just your last post (PE-898): I have never suggested we lynch everyone who is a burden to the Town, it was a single point not a doctrine.

And I have never suggested that you said we lynch EVERYONE who is a burden to the town

like this is the exact kind of semantic crap that makes me think you are more interested in a slapfight than trying to understand what I am saying.

What you said was this:

If that and the numbers at the top of posts aren't enough, you deserve to be lynched as a burden to Town.

and what I said was this:

also for someone who suggested we should lynch people who are "burdens to town" for not understanding the count challenge

again, there is literally no misrep in what I said here here.

[GuiltyLion]

As for misrepresentation, you have somehow taken my legitimate suspicion of you for your attack on Chickadee and tried to present it as some kind of character assassination.

because your suspicion was in no way legitimate

.

Again, here is what you said:

I feel like he's pissy that the case on Chickadee doesn't have more traction, like his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

and here is what I have said:

209

Chick's error and response to it seems genuine, like she's honestly pissed at herself.

can you dig deeper into this?

bc I don't see it as being hard to fake at all

I'm not scumreading Chick for the mistake

so much as the active lurking, the already-discussed fact that she townread Irrelephant for a reason that wasn't true (said he was careful about posts per page when he had already messed up posts per page), and asking you for thoughts in 726 just feels cautious/lazy when she hasn't given many reads herself and there's a ton of other things she could have been commenting on or participating in rather than just prompting a lurker for more content.

Plus her anger at being scumread for showing up immediately after another mistake kinda feels to me like "scum caught for bad reasons" anger.

252

I wish more players would comment on chickadee's mistake, kokichi oma's interrupting the spamcounting, and teacher's mistake around that time. It's definitely at least a little AI and not a lot else is, so please @everyone comment on that or point me to something more interesting to talk about

it's hard for me to put a ton of stock either way in Chickadee's mistake, but it by no means looks unfakeably genuine to me - having a hard time understanding Pine's townread there, it feels forced.

and my defense in response to this suspicion:

285

his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

and like...

I've never been the one to push Chickadee on the basis of the mistake?? I've just said your townread on her for it is bad.

like this just reads like flagrant bullshit, like if you're town and seriously suggesting this then you must not be reading the game at all. I explicitly pushed against pushing on other people who made mistakes - defended Kokichi, even defended YOU YOURSELF in 392 here:

And what's the case on pine? Are we just enforcing a "anyone who screwed up is more likely to be scum" policy? That seems really shallow.

plus, bonus commentary on other players who made mistakes!

I think there's little reason to assume Kokichi read the rules carefully given that he had already posted in thread without reading the challenge/rules, and it's more likely he just made a second mistake.

And what's the case on pine? Are we just enforcing a "anyone who screwed up is more likely to be scum" policy? That seems really shallow.

teacher's mistake I see as likely a real mistake, I've had other posts show up with no p-edit before mine in other games

so if you were genuinely trying to sort and interact with me, why would you accuse me of going after Chickadee specifically for a mistake when I already refused many other past opportunities to do so with other players?

Instead of engaging my fairly detailed explanations and points in the body paragraphs of 896, you deflected attention away from my riposte and towards a different topic you wanted to press.

Seriously. I am not going to do this every time, especially with someone who has gone out of his way to single me out, particularly when I feel they're very likely scum.

Fair enough, you choose not to explain where I "distorted" what you said today. I guess we'll just leave it up to other players to assess who is being genuine here

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty I think Pine is probably town

I know and it's pissing me off, I am being intentional when I say he's not reading the same game I am.

I was thinking of waiting to see who how people jump in on this and being a bit careful with my phrasing but unfortunately my strongest townread was the first to go to bat for Pine so now I'll just agree. He's so obstinate and wrong in the things that he says that I'm thinking it's town-wrong and he's probably just a player I should avoid in future games

but I also want to meta dive to see how often he throws this "I'm being misrepped!" crap out as town.

[GuiltyLion]

basically like the only way he can possibly think I'm distorting what he said today is if he somehow thinks the fact that he wrote "I think NK15 is a saboteur" in his vote explanation should not actually be taken to mean that he seriously thought NK15 was a saboteur

and like that's really stupid but I'm not sure it's something scum would come up with. maybe he's just decided to fight with me today and he's committed to doing that beyond any logical reasoning or attempt at genuine communication, but maybe he's also just a stubborn/proud townie

[GuiltyLion]

Chickadee what is your read on Pine? and can you give some scumreads w/ explanations?

[GuiltyLion]

i haven't actually read the back and forth between you two all that closely but from what you described it sounds similar to something that happened in a game that i modded, dynamic duo / double day unlimited (it's micro 800-A, if you wanted to review it)

yeah reading over that it does look very similar to what he's been doing here

anyways, thoughts on enigma and feysal?

eghhh I dunno. Enigma pinged me a bit early on, some of his posts feel sincere but he isn't really doing anything and there's not much in his ISO that I think would be hard for scum to fake. He's kinda coasting a bit. Feysal feels a little stiff but everything he's said I've agreed with and I'm not really seeing where he's pushing any sort of agenda. If it came down to it I'd lynch Enigma over Feysal.

[GuiltyLion]

My play D1 was too self-centric, and I didn't work enough to try and push reads.

I'll share scum reads when I feel I have some good ones with reasons to share. Thanks.

scumreads don't have to be good for you to share them

i can't read people with no scumreads

[GuiltyLion]

Can someone explain challenge. I just dont wanna make a mistake again.

Someone will have to pick between 1, 2, 3. They are random, but mafia knows the good ones.

more than just this - we have to do it three times. If we fail twice, then we fail the challenge.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ofrhz

I'd probably start here.

new and improved reads
{Irrelephant, NSG, Mylo, Kokichi}
{Pine, Feysal, Prof Fridays}
{Enigma, ofhrz, Chickadee}

[GuiltyLion]

how do you plan on getting reads and when can we expect to see them

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty why are you scumreading enigma? Also why can’t you read someone without scumreads? Townreads are helpful too

I'm not like actively scumreading him I think, but I don't feel good about putting him in a townbloc to POE the rest and I kinda already have too many townreads as it stands. I guess the biggest thing is I feel like he's not making any waves, he's kinda riding the general town opinions and none of his content feels especially hard to fake

The problem with townreads is that it's easier to make plausible townreads as scum, because you know that person's town. Occasionally scum will go too far in 'townreading' someone to an implausible degree - what I thought Pine may be doing with Chickadee's slot - but generally it's much easier for me to sift through genuine scumreads vs faked scumreads because scum

know

that the conclusion they're advocating for is ultimately false, and it shows in how they write arguments to justify it.

[GuiltyLion]

Ooh I just thought of another strat for the challenge. Vote for our scumreads, then when we have majority on someone, they pick a number. If it’s red, they’re the lynch and a town read does two guesses. If it’s green, they get to live. Does this actually work? Just thought of it, idk.

I guess the idea here is to force scum to either push us towards completely the challenge successfully or face a guaranteed lynch? I think it's a decent strategy if we successfully nominate scum, but if we nominate town for this then it doesn't help much and it gives scum a convenient excuse to lump their votes in with the rest of town.

I'm not against it but I think if you assume ~rand odds of nominating scum to pick a number, it doesn't change the probability of successfully winning the challenge by much. It'd be a good play if we had really favorable odds of nominating scum, but I'm not sure we're there yet.

[GuiltyLion]

Looking through the votes, Pine's and Mylo's explanations rub off on me the wrong way, and to a degree ofrhz. I feel their justification came off as weak and uncommitted. Whilst we (myself included) would naturally tend to associate those with lengthy and in-depth explanations as more pro-town, I would also be a bit cautious with this since it is an appearance you can easily make.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. If I'm understanding this right:
- You think Pine/Mylo (and sort of ofrhz) wrote weak uncommitted explanations for their votes
- But you also think it's easy to fake lengthy and in-depth explanations as scum

so...
a) Why does scum in Pine or Mylo or ofrhz's spot write a weak explanation when a long one is easy and seen as more pro-town?
b) who are you trying to warn us to be cautious about with the last sentence?
c) what makes you say their explanations were uncommitted? Isn't the vote a commitment?

Like I actually thought Pine's explanation was notable

because

he explicitly stated that he thought NK15 was a saboteur, and this was a completely new thought compared to his D1 ISO.

[GuiltyLion]

GL's approach to the game has been to be big, loud, and in charge. When others have offered alternative views, he has essentially flooded them out or shouted them down. He's taken care not to be especially contrary, but he's been trying to take control of the majority narrative. There's also the problem that he's far too confident. Town don't have inside information, and are inherently unsure of themselves. Good Town are always second-guessing and checking themselves for confirmation bias. True, there's a lot of bad Town out there, and even decent, experienced players can fall into that trap, but I see none of that. He backed down off of me not because of my behavior, but when general opinion was turning against his attacks on me and when I turned out to be not a lot harder target than he anticipated.

Frankly, pretty much everything GL has done is the classic "scum mayor" approach. High-key activity, squelch dissent while pissing off as few people as possible, and push your own MLs. He attacked two of the three people who fumbled the count on D1, though he oddly defended Kokichi and instead drove the ML on NK15. If GL flips scum like I think, imo Kokichi should get turbolynched D3.

so I disagree on a few points here about Pine's assessment of my play but I don't foresee anything productive coming out of arguing about those

instead I'll make this larger point: none of the points in Pine's post here are actually scum-indicative, none of them have anything to do with my content but rather simply my playstyle

is there any reason to think that I'm more likely to be scum playing "mayor" or "big, loud, and in charge" rather than town playing the same way? Or are you just assuming that I'm scum first and then writing a narrative about how my playstyle benefits me as scum?

I also don't think I've been especially "confident" - like I said D1 to teacher, I try to be forceful because there's no pressure on people otherwise - again, ESPECIALLY without active wagons and votes - but that doesn't actually track to confidence in my reads. The very fact that I backed down on you instead of trying to push through a 1v1 death tunnel should indicate to you that I'm not as confident about anything as you're suggesting I am.

and one last point: you are absolutely wrong about me attacking people for fumbling the count and I'm getting sick of this misrep without you acknowledging my response and the fact that you're too stubborn / out of your element to admit that you're just simply wrong about it.

I have literally never attacked anyone on the basis of fumbling the count.

Not Chickadee, not you, not teacher, not Kokichi. If you disagree, quote the post where I did that. Otherwise quit saying it because it's objectively not true.

[GuiltyLion]

like how you can you accuse me of both:

a) being too confident
b) shuffling my reads around and "throwing everything at the wall"

if I were confident I'd be tunneled on one thing and not bouncing around between reads/suspects

[GuiltyLion]

But everything I post is external? You don't have a window into how I think, you only have the words I choose to present to you.

You're accusing me of being scum because I'm not unsure of myself and second-guessing myself. I would say that the evidence that I'm unsure and second-guessing myself is out there for all to see in how I reassess my reads. If you're looking for evidence of me being unsure in the form of my posts saying "well Pine could be scum but gosh guys I just don't know", sorry, that's not how I've chosen to play this game or write most of my posts.

p-edit: that last post is again just assuming the agenda first and then writing the narrative to support it. I had Chickadee as a suspect as early as 139, prior to any mistake, and only pushed on you when I started suspecting whether your Chickadee read was genuine and you started writing bullshit to support a case on me. You can't say I'm attacking people on the basis of mistakes, then when I call you on that, switch it to attacking people after they've made mistakes. There are two players who made mistakes that I never attacked and players I attacked who never made a mistake.

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like he's pissy that the case on Chickadee doesn't have more traction, like his plan was to jump on any mistake and push it as hostile action.

you were very careful not to invoke the fumbles in your attacks, though you repeatedly argued that Kokichi's fumble shouldn't count against him when you defended the ever-loving shit out of him. In fact, the very fact that you didn't mention the fumbles in your attacks is weird and suspicious - it's a valid point, but you seemed afraid to use it against people you allegedly thought were scummy, as if you didn't want to establish precedent in case it got used against you.

What's actually suspicious is the timing. Someone fumbled, and you pounced. Chickadee messed up, and you immediately attacked her. I made a mistake, you attacked me. The fumble was implicitly, but carefully not explicitly, the subject of your attacks. Kind of clever, actually. I was all ready to quote it, but you were super careful to have an alibi.

like, the transition between these two posts is what's frustrating, Pine would rather assume that I'm scum first and then use it to explain my play, rather than genuinely open to re-considering his read on me. First he says my plan was to push any mistake as hostile action, then when confronted with new evidence that I've never done this, he says the mistake is implicitly the subject of my attacks and the fact that I never actually pushed a mistake is me being "careful to have an alibi".

I laid out my actual reasons for scumreading Chickadee in 738 and 812. I still think those hold (to some degree - but just for you Pine I'll note that I'm not 100% confident) and it's why I've been poking at her repeatedly today.

[GuiltyLion]

I agree he's in a dangerous spot for town if he's scum

also this might be true

but let me just tell you that I'm in a dangerous spot for scum because I'm town

@NSG and @Irrelephant, what do you guys think of Enigma? attacking Chickadee here is what I would expect scum in his position to do if he doesn't want to go after more active/difficult mislynch targets. He's a scumread I feel better about as I reread his ISO. and NSG if you're on the scum!ofrhz train then I see an associative there as Enigma has never commented on ofrhz and ofrhz has responded to a few of Enigma's NAI posts (D1 is boring, plan for the challenge) and then gave him a casual townread in 414.

[GuiltyLion]

ofhrz who do you think is scum?

[GuiltyLion]

The benefits of lynching scum!GL are really high IMO.

in reality, no such benefits exist though

what happened to Enigma in your lynchpool?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm also of the opinion GL's lynch would reveal a good lot, and cut out a lot of noise, should he flip scum.

also like, none of these are reasons to scumread me

you can't justify my lynch by saying "if he's scum, it would reveal a lot". You could say that about literally any player because the entire point of the game is to lynch scum

[GuiltyLion]

also this is a little nitpicky but I find it odd that two of your posts started nearly identically about a townread on Pine

Townreading Pine rn. I think I'm content with Irrelephant town for now, despite my will.

Townreading Pine. His case on GL is persuasive IMO, though I'm not 100% convinced as of yet. {Kokichi, ofrhz, Feysal, GL} seems like a good lynch pool for me. Also, when are we gonna choose a number? I'm getting impatient!

it makes me feel like you're formulaically crafting posts for the situation instead of organically interacting with the thread

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ofrhz

I'd probably start here.

new and improved reads
{Irrelephant, NSG, Mylo, Kokichi}
{Pine, Feysal, Prof Fridays}
{Enigma, ofhrz, Chickadee}

don't forget me!

[GuiltyLion]

The short of Enigma is I've liked his posts recently

which posts specifically and what did you like about them

[GuiltyLion]

Feysal - that's definitely a point I am going to need to think about. My own impression of scum!NSG's meta is that she has a hard time replicating the effort she puts in town and I've seen her lurk her way through scum games and only engage at a shallow level, so I wanted to instantly town-lock her based on the intensive effort from the start and her involvement today. However, if she's capable of playing a similar game of scum then I'm obviously gonna have to reset the read their a little bit, but I'm hesitant to do so immediately without seeing her response, reading the game you linked, and digesting it for a bit.

I'm not a big fan of strawman attacks.

If you say "I think NK15 is a saboteur"

and I then go on to ask you questions like "if you thought NK15 was a saboteur, how would my interactions with him have made any sense as SvS?"

that is not a strawman.

[GuiltyLion]

But questioning my alignment due to the phrasing of publicly-available information, as Feysal suggested, would be strawmanning.

I questioned your alignment for a whole host of reasons, one of which being that your scumread on NK15 as literally expressed by "I think NK15 is a saboteur" came out of nowhere and didn't seem consistent with the rest of your reads/thought process.

Still not liking GL’s penchant for misrepresenting people’s comments.

I'm going to ignore everything you say from this point forward because you seem almost comically incapable of grasping what a misrep is, incapable of engaging with me in good faith, or even incapable of recognizing the irony of complaining about misreps while committing plenty of them yourself

[GuiltyLion]

basically like the only way he can possibly think I'm distorting what he said today is if he somehow thinks the fact that he wrote "I think NK15 is a saboteur" in his vote explanation should not actually be taken to mean that he seriously thought NK15 was a saboteur

and like that's really stupid but I'm not sure it's something scum would come up with. maybe he's just decided to fight with me today and he's committed to doing that beyond any logical reasoning or attempt at genuine communication, but maybe he's also just a stubborn/proud townie

just dropping this here again

[GuiltyLion]

a) Why does scum in Pine or Mylo or ofrhz's spot write a weak explanation when a long one is easy and seen as more pro-town?
b) who are you trying to warn us to be cautious about with the last sentence?
c) what makes you say their explanations were uncommitted? Isn't the vote a commitment?

a)
Probs because they are lazy. I'm saying it is possible to write a long explanation and be town associated from that, though this takes time.
b)
Pretty obv is this in reference to NSG and the quick jump to town reads from some players (you and elephant). I suppose I dislike dishing out town reads so readily, and also view those who do so carefully.
c)
No the vote isn't really a commitment, it is a sheep on the general town consensus and no other viable alternative. And for scum, knowing it is a mislynch, easy to jump on

hold up, so people who write weak/short explanations could be lazy scum, but people who write long and pro-town explanations also shouldn't be townread? Aren't you basically saying that nothing in a vote explanation should be townread if you hold both Pine/Mylo's votes as scummy but also say NSG shouldn't be seen as town? Which vote explanations did you townread, or who do you townread at the moment?

Like is this just commentary for the sake of commentary? What's the direction you're going with here?

+1
IMO trying to be heavily town read, especially when there are no TPRs to be protecting, is not something that townies need to be do.

where am I trying to be heavily town read? This is something that I disagreed with Pine about but didn't bother to bring up, but I'll hash it out with you. I don't think I'm trying to be "Mayor", I personally am just trying to

do shit

and pressure people I think deserve pressuring. I'm totally happy for others to also take charge and bring other viewpoints to the table. So in which posts of mine do you see my trying to be town read?

[GuiltyLion]

Why just NSG and Irrelephant?
So you think Chickadee is a mislynch? Why would you so confidently think that, then make the deduction that I'm scum based on that?
Isn't active and difficult mislynch target contradictory (i.e. everyone is one and/or the other...)?

because they're actively posting townreads who were both around at that time and I feel we're trying to work together today. I trust their opinions more than most players in the game at the moment.

I think Chickadee could be a mislynch, but I also still think she could be scum - I'm trying to see both angles of the gamestate here in scum!Chickadee and town!Chickadee world. It should be pretty clear from my posting both D1 and D2 that I don't "confidently" think she's a mislynch, though I think currently with a gun to my head I would say she's town.

Don't follow the third question - people who post a lot and show a willingness to argue and throw down generally tend to be harder to lynch and so they are harder mislynch targets if they are town.

[GuiltyLion]

why would i as scum lurk or post very little or post unsubstantiated things when i know that people are more likely to townread me making big posts with huge explanations? well, for me it comes down to ability and motivation. i know personally how i could theoretically get townread as scum, but having the ability to do it and the motivation to do it are two entirely separate things. i think the exact same thing could apply when it comes to scum making their vote explanation.

I agree with this. I think what I was trying to get at was how Enigma was saying Pine/Mylo's votes "rubbed him the wrong way", for being weak. But then in the next sentence he says we should be cautious with how we tend to naturally associate lengthy and in-depth explanations as pro-town. It feels like he's casting as wide a net as possible on being skeptical about townie-looking votes - "scum might be lazy and write a weak explanation, but also don't townread people who didn't do that." So ultimately I guess I want to figure out why he thinks Pine/Mylo specifically are scummy since they were called out in his post.

His last 1029 post might be more indicative of what he was ultimately trying to say - "effort is not indicative of alignment", basically. To be fair to Enigma that's a good point and one I should probably reconsider before making a hard townbloc to PoE. but then I guess I don't like how that's the main thing he's chosen to riff on, rather than specific engagement about his current reads

[GuiltyLion]

I think the ofrhz push on Prof Fridays is worth discussion from everyone, both in terms of read on Prof Fridays and thoughts on ofhrz's case.

ofhrz's points are valid, but I'm not sure that I actually feel like Prof Fridays is scummy. The way he's reversed a few of his reads and candidly replied to pushes on him (992, 1006) feels vaguely town to me - not strong enough to be particularly confident in calling him town but it gives me some doubts about a scumread.

While he did dodge the original question about why Pine's case was convincing, I'm not really convinced that there was an agenda to it. and ofrhz can you explain why 1001 being a 'weird' post makes it more likely to be scum?

[GuiltyLion]

also here's my current updated thoughts

ultimately I don't think NSG making a townread on Mylo being similar to her past scum!townread on scum-partner-ofrhz is strongly indicative - it's a good thing to note and consider if we get late in the game and probability of scum!NSG is much higher, but I think it's more likely NSG makes a meta townread like that as either alignment, is town here, and simply managed to effectively emulate something she'd do as town in that scumgame. However, I also think Feysal coming in with this angle is good evidence for him being town as well.

I still think ofrhz is a good candidate for scum

I think one of Chickadee/Enigma is likely to be scum. Chickadee still isn't really engaging with much and her turnaround on Prof Fridays based off of solely ofrhz's post is a bit weird. Enigma I have a hard time ruling out as scum but also have a hard time ruling him out as town. I think more discussion and reads from him would help me a lot here.

Third scum is a bit of a mystery, could be someone deep wolfing. I think I'm actually starting to get a liiiiitle bit paranoid of Irrelephant but I don't think that's paranoia worth indulging in until we get some more flips and day phases in. If Chick is town, maybe Prof Fridays, but the push on PF from ofrhz is worth looking further into if we get a ofhrz scumflip.

[GuiltyLion]

While he did dodge the original question about why Pine's case was convincing, I'm not really convinced that there was an agenda to it

actually I guess I should think harder about this

because it is fairly scummy to be asked why you're scumreading a player and to switch your response with an answer about why

lynching

that player is good for the gamestate. There's less cognitive dissonance in arguing about the pro-town utility of a mislynch as there is cognitive dissonance when arguing for why someone is scum.

but the fact that he acknowledged that he didn't answer the question in 992 just feels a little bravely candid for scum. I want to say scum would make a token effort to name parts that they found persuasive, even just a throwaway line or two wouldn't be that hard.

[GuiltyLion]

Why is it an chickadee or myself? I've had limited interactions with her, apart from a small push on her reluctance to scum hunting or game-solve (which I was not the only one to do).
Why does one rule out/confirm the other?

I'm still trying to PoE outside the core {NSG/Mylo/Feysal/Irrelephant/Kokichi/Pine} bloc of townreads which makes you two much more likely candidates

I guess I don't think you were at team because of the way you were angling to push on her, but you're right that there's actually not a ton of interactions there

[GuiltyLion]

Your chickadee read has evolved quite a bit from .... in just 6 posts. First post reads as a maybe maybe/null, more likely to be town lean, and then just 6 posts later you sound much more suspect of her as a likely scum ...

I don't think this is an evolution the way you are framing it

I'm very uncertain about Chickadee and I can easily see both game states where she is town or scum. That naturally makes her a suspect, but I'm not so confident in it I'd bet the odds are greater she's scum than town because it's still starting from basic probability 70% that she's town

[GuiltyLion]

I don't care who picks the number

this, as long as it's not ofhrz/chickadee/prof fridays/enigma. I'd probably prefer someone in NSG/Feysal/Mylo if I were to vote/choose

[GuiltyLion]

Enigma I'd really like a snapshot of who you are town/scumreading, you're engaging with me as if you want to sort me but I don't feel like I have a sense at all of where your head is or what your motive is with this questioning

[GuiltyLion]

So when Friday offered up Pine's case as a reason to put you in his lynchpool, the trajectory looked fake. That made him dodging the question suspicious, because the first thing that occurred to me was that Friday threw out a reason to cast light shade on you and then didn't have the reasoning to back it up.

but wouldn't scum want to at least fake reasoning to back it up? If he's sheeping Pine to support a lynch on me, why wouldn't he at least parrot parts that he sound convincing?

like I agree with you the trajectory is weird but I'm not sure I agree that it's fake or that it's scummy. I think scum want to be seen as more predictable/logical with their trajectories and it's not like I'm an easy mislynch at this point in the game.

2) I think it's weird to quote a scumread and agree with them without further commentary. It makes his scumread on Kokichi more likely to be fake. On some sort of instinctual level, I think town would be more suspicious of their scumreads posts, even if they happened to come to the same conclusion as one of their scumreads. Although thinking about this more, this is not a particularly strong point because there are other explanations for why Friday might have quoted that.

I feel the same as Feysal about this:

The other part of agreeing on Ofrhz when another player from his lynchpool also does is not that compelling. Prof Fridays described it as a lynchpool, not as actual suspects, and there were too many for them all to be scum anyway.

if I have a strong scumread and one of my lesser scumreads votes it, that's not always inherently suspicious

[GuiltyLion]

This is weird thing to say about someone I think you were townreading and still are? Re-read and you were nullreading him, but you have since said you somewhat townread him. Like idk it's just some casual shade you don't really believe? Especially because I townread him for it - I've done the same as town, and it comes across as agenda-less imo. Not quite a townslip, but definitely not a scumslip I don't think.

I don't really believe it - I don't think it's strongly indicative either way, it's mostly just

weird

and I wanted to see his response about it. Forgetting what you posted previously doesn't make much sense as either alignment, though I guess I can see it as loosely town if you're to assume scum are generally more careful about reviewing what they already posted (which is what I think you mean by agenda-less).

[GuiltyLion]

hey everyone, I am just gonna prodge for now - been a busy weekend visiting some friends in another city. Will bring content either late tonight or tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

welp

I'm still probably voting ofrhz, I don't think there was a serious attempt to game solve from them today - or the game so far in general. just a push onto Prof Fridays for lynch

I don't think Pine is the move tonight though he will definitely need to be litigated after this

[GuiltyLion]

in which nothing of consequence was being discussed

quite a questionable claim here

[GuiltyLion]

So actually, pleeeeaaasseee do point out where I'm misrepping you. Can't wait to hear it.

also welcome to my world lmao

you're never going to hear it

[GuiltyLion]

Irrelephant I agree Enigma/Chickadee interactions are weird but I think most of the scumminess is on Enigma's side

I still don't feel like he's given me like a holistic assessment of who he thinks is town and who he thinks is scum, he's just trying to chop up townreads on a variety of players

I'm skimming along at work but haven't had time to think a lot yet so I'll give more detail and thought tonight, but I do want to call out something from PF just now though

I don't understand Feysal's being in most people's town block - he's a slight scum read for me, as is Kokichi, with ofhrz as lean scum (and my lynch target of choice today, I think)

Not sure why Kokichi is hell-bent on lynching me, though I can't say I scum-read him for it.

what changed with respect to Kokichi here?

[GuiltyLion]

I see no reason for him as scum to choose the right number and not just give us the 1/9th chance of winning.

VOTE: Pine

This is terrible.

There’s no WIFOM there. The odds are super stacked against us - I don’t recall how to do mathematical combinations, but even without the presence of bad actors, our odds of success are <40%. With a bad guess down, our odds are down to 1/9 (I think). I’m not willing to reduce those odds further by letting someone I don’t trust (in this case all of you) sink our chances further. Case in point:

Choose: 1

The WIFOM of you selecting correctly the 2nd one hurts

also

I think it's weird that Enigma thinks there's WIFOM in Pine getting the second number right, yet calls out Kokichi for voting Pine after Pine guessed the second number, yet also doesn't acknowledge/respond at all to Kokichi reversing on Pine and saying he's likely town (in 1134)

I think if Enigma were genuinely trying to sort he'd have a more coherent thought process here. instead it's like he's randomly shading/commenting on a couple things - Kokichi scumreading Pine for choosing 2nd number is bad, there's WIFOM in Pine getting the number right (so what's Enigma's current read on Pine...?) and ignoring additional developments (Kokichi's stance on Pine after the number was revealed to be right) that seem directly relevant.

[GuiltyLion]

actually you know what I'm totally fine with a {ofhrz, Enigma, Chickadee} lynchpool, I'm satisfied with townreads on everyone else for now. Until/unless I see a townflip inside of those three I doubt I'm going to have a massive shake-up/reassessment.

I have some thoughts about Chickadee that I'll expand on later this evening, don't have time to do it justice right now

[GuiltyLion]

I would seriously consider voting Pine tonight.

okay so first off, can you explain why? Why does scum!Pine guess twice, intentionally throwing the first one and then getting the second one right? I feel like the path of least resistance (sitting back and letting town fuck it up) is far more likely scumplay here. So why is it more likely a scheme from scum!Pine than town!Pine guessing twice?

Catching up there was a post where I was starting to get suspicious of irrelephant11.

Spoiler: This one, just so it's in my ISO

Gosh I was going to put so much sorting work in today

Did you know two right/wrong answers ends the day???

I'm disregarding it for now, because day didn't end, but upon catching up, this struck me as knowing the day would end. It came off as very fake. It feels like there's confidence behind this statement.

this push I really can't grok. If the day had ended, maybe Irrelephant's confidence would have been worth a side-eye. But the day didn't end, so this whole thing is invalid isn't it? I don't understand why a town!Chickadee would go ahead and post this anyway, while acknowledging that she's disregarding it. The thought process seems forced and I get vibes of "work for the sake of work" from this analysis, especially because she hasn't really pushed on much else this game so it can't be explained away as passing commentary inside of a full ISO. like you weren't sharing many reads because you didn't feel that you had good ones to share, but then you do feel compelled to share this despite it being invalidated when the day continued? and you're not really full-on scumreading Irrelephant to go with this either.

like if Irrelephant didn't know whether the day would end or not, he's town. If he's scum then he knew the day

wouldn't

end. So arguing that he's more suspicious because he knew the day

would

end just doesn't make any sense and I'm having a hard time seeing how town-Chickadee would genuinely think that way. Help me out here.

[GuiltyLion]

oh yeah and I forgot to respond to this

Are Feysal and Pine strong enough townreads now for you to put them in that block? It didn't seem like that would be possible fypov at the start of the game day, and I especially don't remember much evolution from you regarding Pine. What do you think of his case on you, especially the point about you scumreading all but a few players throughout the game?

Feysal and Pine are both strong enough townreads where I do not want to consider lynching them whatsoever for today. I would begin to revisit them in the world where I see a few more surprising townflips and it becomes clear that my game-state view is comically off - I would not yet bet the game on them being town - but they've definitely moved the needle from "no reason to feel that they are more likely town than starting probability" to "I have several posts/reasons to think this player is more likely town than scum".

The Pine read kinda evolved awkwardly because I came into the day wanting to lynch him, but then I got the sense while I was locking horns with him that he

believed

in what he was saying and he didn't

know

that it was bullshit. I thought his case on me was objectively pretty terrible - most of it is written in the sense where he assumes that I am scum and then uses that to write a narrative to fit my play to the agenda of scum!Lion. but this style of reasoning doesn't necessarily mean that he's scum as town can get tunneled on their scumreads. I started having doubts and being careful to push on him while not explicitly saying that I actually thought he was scum:

I can't take you seriously unless you give any evidence whatsoever that you're reading the game and playing with good intentions, I'm seeing absolutely none so far and as a result I'm also having a hard time seeing myself being able to vote anyone else at this point.

Fair enough, you choose not to explain where I "distorted" what you said today. I guess we'll just leave it up to other players to assess who is being genuine here

as a bit of a bait to see how/whether people would jump in on one side or the other, but then when you posted 903 I changed my mind about continuing an argument with him and decided there probably wasn't much utility in doing so and I should just start looking for scum elsewhere.

I think I've at-some-point-scumread maybe half the people in this game. The scumreads I've pushed for lynch consideration are NK15, Chickadee, Enigma, ofrhz, Pine. even Pine was never really a "yeah this guy is scum" type of read so much as an OMGUS for calling for my lynch and misrepping me by accusing me of misrepping him, if you read my ISO I didn't really swing on him until my 811. I guess that's a fair amount of players but I don't think it's an unreasonable amount in a 13p game - there are also players I've consistently townread (Kokichi - who Pine also thought I might be buddied with as a result, yourself, Feysal), and some players I've kinda felt weren't solid townreads but never pushed for lynch.

How did you come up with these lists?

those were my POE most likely to be scum and my most solid townreads respectively? I didn't think those names would be much of a surprise given the rest of my ISO.

[GuiltyLion]

I could think of a multitude of reasons for scum to pick the correct number the second time. WIFOM. Picking once (and wrong) when no one seemed to want to pick a number could have been grounds for a lynch. Picking wrong twice could have been grounds for a lynch. Scum theater for a town read. The list could go on.

Yes there are reasons scum

could

do it, but why are those more likely than reasons town would do it? Like I can write a similar list about why town!Pine would do it, so I need to see why you think the scum explanation is more likely, not that there exists a scum explanation.

Also worth noting that several other players (Kokichi, ofrhz, myself) have come to the exact opposite conclusion as you on this point.

And irrelephant11's post is along the same lines. It struck me as scum trying to be worried town. I quoted it just so it's in my ISO (as I said before) because it pinged me, and I didn't want to lose track of it. It's more a form of my own personal notes rather than anything that I needed input on. During my catch up after the double choosing, that one post stuck out in my mind over everything else.

And you can't fault me here for not having reads to share earlier and now sharing the things I'm finding relevant. You can't have it both ways. Either let me lurk, or let me play, but do not chastise me for both.

but you're saying he's pretending to be worried town because he assumed the day would end, and then the day didn't end, and then you said you were disregarding it for now. So are you now saying Irrelephant was faking being confident that the day would end despite knowing that it wouldn't?

I'm not faulting you for sharing, I'm faulting you for sharing something that I find confusing and hard to understand, something that you are simultaneously walking back as you are sharing it. I also still don't understand what your ultimate point is with this read - would you lynch Irrelephant because of this?

[GuiltyLion]

Even without a nice summary of list of names, my line of posting should be somewhat obvious as to where I stand on certain players.

yo this is bullshit

ofrhz and Prof Fridays have both been getting votes and people supporting their lynch. I just quickly passed through your ISO again and I see no significant commentary or questioning on them at all. No idea what your stance on them is.

and it's not like it's any more clear with regard to the people you HAVE been questioning, primarily myself and Chickadee. Here's what you said about me:

Engaging with you because you don't read conf!town to me, and I'm trying to figure out if this is justified and why people have this read.

Outcome: still not likely town, not sure about scum, so null for now

and here's what you said about Chickadee:

So I had slight scum read Chickadee for most of today.

These posts sound quite off, I particularly dislike the first two paras of 1128. Though the irrelephant comment is a bit on the opposite - more townie. So ugh, still debating.

like you can't honestly believe that you've made yourself clear about anything. I have no idea who you even plan on voting at this point.

[GuiltyLion]

Btw Guilty finally town-told (I think)! Yay

I’d get on an enigma wagon

man I'm so curious about this meta tell on me, will you tell me sometime?

[GuiltyLion]

PSA: This wagon is happening because of me being lazy and not fully engaged with the game, and if I get (mis)lynched this wagon/lynch will not provide useful information for town and will leave town grasping at straws again D3, especially with how it is being coordinated and pushed. It is a small group of vocal (and likely town) actors trying to convince others to jump on.

if you're legitimately town and you legitimately think your lynch will not provide useful info, provide some useful info yourself. sitting around taking small potshots at townreads without actually putting down any firm reads is the primary reason people want to lynch you as well as the primary reason it'd be a waste of effort if you are actually town.

that said, this mostly feels like AtE bs to try to sow doubt in scumreads on your slot. you could at least respond to my most recent posts (1151, 1178) where I am inviting / practically-begging you to give game-relevant content.

I suppose I will reiterate since people haven't really commented on my earlier sugegstion: we should be posting scum reads but we should not be actively trying to build a consensus on how to vote (like we did D1) as this allows scum to slip through easily, makes looking for scum coordination harder, and associatives are harder to identify as it becomes sheeping.

for the record I do sort of agree with this, though I also think sheeping onto a lynch is still useful info if we've consolidated. I mostly think it's important to make people take a stand on popular wagons (ofrhz, Prof Fridays, Enigma) and signal where they want to vote, which naturally leads to some consolidation. If we're posting scumreads then if people are hashing out reads and participating in give-and-take like good townies should, we wind up mostly consolidating. But at this point if we want to go into night with slight ambiguity about the exact # votes on orfhz/PF/enigma then I don't have a problem with it, I think there's mostly been enough content to see where the votes/flips go and glean information as a result.

I will say I am definitely not voting Prof Fridays, I think the "fluid" nature of his reads (as he self-described it) vibes vaguely town - not a hard townread but enough to make him less of a lynch priority for me than the other candidates I've been pushing.

[GuiltyLion]

Don't panic unless there's a reason to. I decided to catch up since there wasn't much, and at the end of my catch up it was already revealed. So why panic at that point?

on the surface I thought I understood this but when I think a bit more about it it doesn't make any sense

quick definitions
Time A - Pine making the second guess
Time B - mod revealing second guess was right

the panic point should have been seeing Pine make a second guess (Time A). NSG is saying town have reason to panic when they see that, and your lack of panic indicates scum mindset.

You are suggesting you arrived at some point between A and B, and started working on a catchup post. But town shouldn't have known that there was no reason to panic until after Time B. So you're not refuting what NSG has said.

Then, you say after Time B, there's no reason to panic. Which is true, but runs contrary to your suggestion that you were actively catching up between Time A and Time B.

So I feel you are being disingenuous with this explanation and conflating two different times (prior to Time B, post Time B) to justify a suspicious lack of panic that should have happened between Time A and Time B.

[GuiltyLion]

basically either Chickadee arrived to thread after Time B, in which case she's lying about what time she started catching up

or Chickadee didn't have any panic between Time A and Time B, in which case she's not actually rebuffing NSG's point

[GuiltyLion]

do we want to elect someone to make the final guess? the other alternative is someone just yolo'ing and doing it

[GuiltyLion]

I'm fine with any of Pine/Irrelephant/NSG taking the guess, I also don't mind doing it. With respect to Pine's second guess being right, or how to evaluate the third guess, I may have said this before but I think getting it right should generally be seen as evidence for being town - yes there's a possibility scum could do pro-town things for WIFOM and towncred, but I don't see a compelling reason to weigh it heavily in that direction and I don't think you should wholly discount the fact that they're a doing a fundamentally pro-town thing. if nothing else then it's NAI rather than scummy.

and I feel like you could make a similar argument for passing any of these challenges - yeah scum might do it to try to blend in, but ultimately town wants to pass the challenge and we shouldn't consider it scummy to do something that helps pass a challenge.

Also, Re: Irrelephant: I think Enigma's town based mostly off of his thought processes jive with mine (I thought I had said this before), i.e. I can understand his comments coming from town.

I don't think any of Enigma's thought processes have been particularly deep or hard to fake from a scum perspective. I'd suggest you revisit them and challenge yourself if it's actually difficult or unlikely to come from scum.

[GuiltyLion]

if I was scum I would want to coast through this game (as I'm currently doing now )

[GuiltyLion]

does that context actually change anything about the point?

[GuiltyLion]

like are you saying if you were scum you wouldn't coast through other challenges?

[GuiltyLion]

we'll see

[GuiltyLion]

I can see why Pine thought you are scum in the 1v1, not least for the incredibly frustrating stubbornness when engaging 1v1 vs you.

I mean what are you actually trying to engage with me and change my opinion about? You say you're town and you're just too busy/detached to put some effort in and point town in a useful direction in case you are mislynched. You're not offering anything else to look at besides that. Cool, noted, that's nothing that scum couldn't or wouldn't say either. I'll listen to you if you want to sell me on other scum suspects - we both think Chickadee is a scum candidate, you can start there if you want.

[GuiltyLion]

I will say I am definitely not voting Prof Fridays, I think the "fluid" nature of his reads (as he self-described it) vibes vaguely town - not a hard townread but enough to make him less of a lynch priority for me than the other candidates I've been pushing.

explain how Friday's ~fluid~ reads are different from the things you're scumreading me for?

I mean I've barely really even elaborated why I'm scumreading you, it's a bit presumptuous to assume that it's for "fluid" reads, no?

It's moreso for the fact that you don't seem genuinely engaged with a lot of relevant/interesting threads of conversation, most of your posts (especially D2) seem designed to go through the motion of pushing scumreads rather than game-solving, and that fundamentally I just don't feel particularly good about a townread on your slot compared to most of the other players in this game. This "why me" post is another reason, I have a hard time thinking that town!ofrhz would think that this particular question is the most important thing to post at this point in the game.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright. So I'm going to try and walk through this timing thing as clearly as I can because there seems to be a lot of confusion around me concerning it.

but the point people are making is that a townie in your spot should have panicked when you saw Pine's second guess, instead of deciding to proceed with a catch-up (rather than immediately posting and dumping thoughts) and risk thread lock before you say anything.

You're not actually defending against this point

[GuiltyLion]

I disagree, and I think it goes further than simply his reads, just to clarify - it's his responses, too. I mean, if you ask Pine, I bet he'd say your thought processes wouldn't be hard to fake from a scum perspective. Obviously I'm biased, since I more-or-less said so in saying that Enigma's thought processes jive with mine (in that his responses to things strike me as similar to how I'd respond as town or, at least, I can understand them coming from town!Enigma), but I don't think that's an unacceptable reason for town-reading him.

what does Pine's read on me have to do with this?

and even if Pine were to say that I feel like I'd disagree pretty strongly hahaha, my posts/thoughts should be seen as much harder to fake than Enigma's

"unacceptable" is not the word I'd use, but maybe rather "lazy" or "questionable". Like I think Enigma is not doing much to sort or interact with most players, his primary interest seems to be in defending himself and pushing against townreads that are forming on other players, and he mostly comes in to respond to pushes against him but doesn't do anything proactive to push the thread towards a different lynch instead. That's not impossible to be bad town-play, but by no means is it something that should clear him from being a scum candidate.

like can you quote a post or two that strikes you as particularly townie because it jives with your own thoughts?

[GuiltyLion]

quote one then, humor me

[GuiltyLion]

his whole ISO is apparently so townie and jives with your own thought processes as town, and you can't even bother to pick one or two posts in particular that gave you this feeling?

[GuiltyLion]

what is gained from you not doing it

like if your goal is to convince me not to vote Enigma, make your damn case

otherwise we could lynch one of your townreads and you should feel bad about that

[GuiltyLion]

I am literally pulling these things STAIGHT FROM HIS POSTS

Obviously I'm biased, since I more-or-less said so in saying that Enigma's thought processes jive with mine (in that his responses to things strike me as similar to how I'd respond as town or, at least, I can understand them coming from town!Enigma), but I don't think that's an unacceptable reason for town-reading him.

It's like most of his ISO, bruh.

IT IS NOT A MISREP TO ASSUME SOMEONE IS SAYING SOMETHING THAT THEY MEAN

[GuiltyLion]

I am literally pulling these things STAIGHT FROM HIS POSTS

Obviously I'm biased, since I more-or-less said so in saying that Enigma's thought processes jive with mine (in that his responses to things strike me as similar to how I'd respond as town or, at least, I can understand them coming from town!Enigma), but I don't think that's an unacceptable reason for town-reading him.

It's like most of his ISO, bruh.

IT IS NOT A MISREP TO ASSUME SOMEONE IS SAYING SOMETHING THAT THEY MEAN

[GuiltyLion]

Prof Friday is refusing to do the unnecessary thing extra work you’re demanding

oh look!

Pine misrepped me by saying I'm "demanding" someone do "extra" "unnecessary" work!

because quoting a post you find particularly townie is so much "extra work"!

[I still think Pine is town I'm just being snarky and throwing his garbage argument in his face because it's so frustratingly stupid]

[GuiltyLion]

Prof Friday is refusing to do the unnecessary thing extra work you’re demanding, and you’re putting words in his mouth.

ehhhhh I'm not sure it's really worth bringing this up

but I find it a little suspicious that you clearly originally wrote "thing", then decided to change it to "extra work"

most likely NAI overall but like, you really wanted to go an extra mile to try to make me look bad

[GuiltyLion]

WHOA PINE you can't just defend me then vote for Enigma like that! Don't do me like that!

perhaps if ya

you know

expanded on your Enigma townread beyond lazy surface-level reasoning

and actually tried to convince people not to vote him, especially when they openly engage with you and invite you to

people would be less inclined to vote him

just a thought

[GuiltyLion]

hello again everyone!

Lol got two already.

@mutant
Are these words chosen randomly (i.e. you opened a dictionary closed your eyes and dropped your finger) or did you choose them?

The line of thinking is are we expecting common terminology one would be expected to use on the forum and we don't really have to try, or just random strange words that we will unlikely use and we actively need to try to expand our vocab. I'm suspecting the former since we have two already.

My guess is the words are probably words that come up somewhat frequently in mafia, which puts scum in the awkward spot of trying to either use the words and advance town win-con or awkwardly dancing around them, which may get noticed if someone else uses the word?

[GuiltyLion]

If enigma is town I'd bet it's two of Pine/Kokichi/Prof

If enigma is scum I'd bet it's with Prof Fridays

I 100% agree with this and will flesh out some of my own thoughts in a sec, but gist of it is I think Enigma is town and probably ofrhz too. Pine/Prof Fridays makes the most sense to me because I'm still townreading Kokichi independently and associatives between those two are pretty non-existent/bad as well.

[GuiltyLion]

Vote Count

(4) Chickadee

- ofrhz, FA_Q2, Irrelephant11, Enigma.

(3) Enigma

- Pine, Myloninja13, Kokichi Oma.

(3) ofrhz

- Chickadee, Prof Fridays, Guilty Lion.

(1) Prof Fridays

- Feysal.

right so I spent some time over the night phase thinking about this vote count and I think scum didn't think Chickadee would get lynched and no one bussed here.

Here's how I went thinking about it - If scum bussed, only one of them bussed because I don't think it was obvious at all that Chickadee would get lynched yesterday and so it'd be borderline suicidal to double bus when there were mislynch targets for the taking instead.

FA_Q2 is conf town and I strongly strongly believe Irrelephant is town, I have no reason to doubt that. So that means maximum of one scum only in ofrhz/Enigma, which is enough of a reason to start doubting scumreads on either of them.

Then you add the fact that they were the two main counterwagons - how likely is it that we were collectively pushing on at least two of the three person scumteam? Pretty unlikely. And - if Enigma is scum, then it means the third partner also either voted scum!Enigma (double bus? unlikely) or is Prof Fridays/Feysal. Still townreading Feysal, so that leaves the Enigma/PF scenario. If ofrhz is scum, then it means double bus confirmed between ofrhz/Chickadee. These scenarios are like not totally outside the realm of any possibility but I don't think they're worth considering until later.

I think the simpler and more likely explanation is town!Enigma, town!ofrhz, and scumteam of Chickadee/Pine/PF split their votes amongst mislynches. PF couldn't go Enigma because of how he acted in the thread, so he went on ofrhz. Pine went with Enigma to act consistent in character.

It also explains Prof Fridays weird townread on Enigma (white knight) and Pine's weird townread on Chickadee (soft defending a partner). plus Pine's continuous misreps and failure to explain them. and probably Pine/Chickadee were intentionally fucking with the count after all.

[GuiltyLion]

latest reads
{Irrelephant, Kokichi, Enigma}
{ofrhz, mylo, Feysal}
{Prof Fridays, Pine}

honestly I doubt these will change much today but I've said that a few times before and been wrong so

[GuiltyLion]

Here's how I went thinking about it - If scum bussed, only one of them bussed because I don't think it was obvious at all that Chickadee would get lynched yesterday and so it'd be borderline suicidal to double bus when there were mislynch targets for the taking instead.

actually wait I totally derped on this, because if double bus then it was ofrhz/Enigma and no mislynches were really available and going on Chickadee was a last resort play

but I just really really doubt that on D2 town had all three scum suspects nailed such that scum had no control over any of the primary lynch candidates. that's probabilistically super unlikely and just generally towns are not that good and scums are not that bad. plus they might as well have bussed someone like Enigma (who I thought was going to get lynched) instead

also

the point Enigma made end of D2 about not just intentionally guessing a bad number and cutting day short when he felt like he was gonna get lynched is pretty good. I didn't say anything about it yesterday but that's a strongly compelling argument IMO

[GuiltyLion]

also we only have one week so let's try to be as active as possible

VOTE: Prof Fridays
who's opposed to this

[GuiltyLion]

Going with 2. It hasn’t shown up yet, and while that is a shit reason for guessing it, there aren’t any good reasons.

also

if you all like reachy-GL conspiracy theories about scumslips-that-most-people-would-reject-as-scumslips then get ready for a whopper

this post was also weird to me because Pine said 2 "hadn't shown up yet". But we don't know which numbers "showed up", we just know Pine's guesses, which were 3 and 1. 1 was a valid guess, 3 was not. There's no way of knowing that 2 wasn't the first number (where Pine incorrectly guessed 3), from an uninformed perspective.

So either
1) scum!Pine knew that 2 was never one of the magic numbers
2) town!Pine awkwardly referred to his own guesses as the numbers that had "shown up"

I'm gonna call it and say the magic numbers were 1,1, and then either 1/3. bookmark that one for postgame my dudes.

[GuiltyLion]

Feysal, Kokichi, GL

strike me

as good lynch candidates

for me

.

Actually,

I think

GL might be the best bet

IMO

. I feel like scum would bet on an ofhrz lynch, put two on that wagon and one on Enigma so as to not look too suspicious.

also your posts continue to feel like you're crafting them rather than writing organic thoughts - you repeat yourself too much. same thing as the double "townreading Pine" I called out yesterday.

[GuiltyLion]

But

I

catch

scum

with these sorts of tells all the time

(found by searching my own posts for instances of "craft")

[GuiltyLion]

I mean, I don't see anyone else willing to offer up their will.

lol are you really trying to get towncred for that

I'm willing, it just wasn't very useful:

NSG and Irrelephant are lock town, please do not lynch them ever. I am not as sold on Mylo as NSG is, he might be worth looking at if we're really struggling. Feysal, Kokichi, or Pine could still be scum but I doubt it - I'd look at Pine over the other two in that group. My reads haven't changed too much from everything I've dumped in the thread, lynches need to be ofrhz, Enigma, Chickadee, Prof Fridays in some order. Just reread my ISO and look at everything I've been trying to say.

[GuiltyLion]

Can we, just for the sake of argument, assume I'm conftown - does anyone else see the GL stuff that I do? It seems clear enough to me.

I don't think you're going to win this battle

[GuiltyLion]

The flip-flop on Pine seems bad and ignores much of what he's already done to indicate his towniness (notably I find his reactions to pressure very genuine/town-like).

also

votes and flips are always more useful to me than day play. I talked about last night's VC and Chickadee's scumflip means Pine's weak D1 townread on her look much worse in hindsight

I laid out my reasoning for why my reads changed pretty clearly, just saying I've "flip-flopped" and not addressing the substance of

why

I re-evaluated and the argument I laid out is bad.

also like my main reasons for townreading Pine were it felt like he was confident in bad arguments and because he got the second number right. but then in hindsight the way the whole thing went down with the numbers wasn't all that townie, he may have scumslipped in the process of doing it, and I decided Pine is just confident in his bad arguments because he's scum and he wants to push his agenda regardless of how bad it makes him look. I even indicated some doubts/inklings of this possibility yesterday in my ISO:

basically like the only way he can possibly think I'm distorting what he said today is if he somehow thinks the fact that he wrote "I think NK15 is a saboteur" in his vote explanation should not actually be taken to mean that he seriously thought NK15 was a saboteur

and like that's really stupid but I'm not sure it's something scum would come up with. maybe he's just decided to fight with me today and he's committed to doing that beyond any logical reasoning or attempt at genuine communication, but maybe he's also just a stubborn/proud townie

I don't think Pine is the move tonight though he will definitely need to be litigated after this

in which nothing of consequence was being discussed

quite a questionable claim here

Prof Friday is refusing to do the unnecessary thing extra work you’re demanding, and you’re putting words in his mouth.

ehhhhh I'm not sure it's really worth bringing this up

but I find it a little suspicious that you clearly originally wrote "thing", then decided to change it to "extra work"

most likely NAI overall but like, you really wanted to go an extra mile to try to make me look bad

[GuiltyLion]

plus his last few posts felt a bit LAMIST

you're mistaking IST for LAMIST

[GuiltyLion]

Wait so some people have said that enigma is town for voting chickadee because scum wouldn't know there would be so many votes on chickadee
But if scum didn't know, then why does enigma get town points for voting her?

I don't give Enigma many town points for voting Chickadee but I do give him townpoints for being a counterwagon to a flipped-scum-Chickadee. I think if both Enigma and Chickadee were scum, they would have either bussed a lot harder to make sure they get some towncred from the other's flip, or gone for a survivalist triple vote (presumably with their third partner) onto ofrhz. to me the only viable partners for Enigma/Chickadee team would be ofrhz (insanely unlikely given the D2 VC unless this town is made up of scum-hunting and town-telling gods) or Prof Fridays (who I am advocating we lynch today anyway).

[GuiltyLion]

I find it weird she wouldn't vote him, especially since she was most likely to be lynch besides him

I think if she thought Enigma was going to be (mis)lynched anyway, she might as well put her vote somewhere else

am I the only one thinking it wasn't really obvious Chickadee was going to be lynched last night? Like I was pretty surprised she got the most votes, and I suspect the scumteam was too. She seemed to be on the periphery of everyone's scumpool but no one was truly going to bat to advocate lynching her yesterday.

[GuiltyLion]

on the "consensus" argument:

for the record I do sort of agree with this, though I also think sheeping onto a lynch is still useful info if we've consolidated. I mostly think it's important to make people take a stand on popular wagons (ofrhz, Prof Fridays, Enigma) and signal where they want to vote, which naturally leads to some consolidation. If we're posting scumreads then if people are hashing out reads and participating in give-and-take like good townies should, we wind up mostly consolidating. But at this point if we want to go into night with slight ambiguity about the exact # votes on orfhz/PF/enigma then I don't have a problem with it, I think there's mostly been enough content to see where the votes/flips go and glean information as a result.

also PF gets absolutely no town credit simply for not being on the NK mislynch D1. Scum would already know that it is a mislynch and could easily decide not to vote it if they know enough townies + their scumbuddies were voting it.

[GuiltyLion]

@Irrelephant11: My not-NK15 was an intentional vote as I think consensus lynch is bad and tells us nothing.

right so I disagree with this because I think I learned a fair amount from consensus lynch, including the fact that that you decided to vote elsewhere despite what Irrelephant pointed out in 879 - that this vote provides you personally with no additional info. What did you learn by voting elsewhere?

I also saw a couple other votes that I want to press on:

I think NK15 is a saboteur, and will compromise there because I don't think I can get GL lynched.

If you thought NK15 was a saboteur, why didn't you mention him at all in your ISO yesterday even once? Why would my interactions with him have made any sense as SvS? Why was NK15 specifically more likely to be a saboteur for "low contribution" when there are plenty of other slots with as much or less contribution?

I may be already biased on Pine but I really didn't like how he suggested he thought NK15 was a saboteur here, it feels like scum bluffing a scumread because they knew it was a mislynch.

"I want to consolidate on something I think has a chance of going through."

Similarly, you also did not mention NK15 at all yesterday. If you wanted to consolidate on something, why did you let everyone else pick the target during day phase yesterday? It seems like you had no preferences of your own whatsoever for who you personally thought was scum or wanted to lynch.

also not to toot my own horn or anything but like, look what I managed to learn from the consolidated D1 lynch, in contrast to Prof Fridays saying that we learned "nothing". I was very much on track here and then got derailed into Pine making up more crap about me "misrepping" him with this post.

I opened the day pushing on Chickadee. like honestly lmao if it is Chickadee/PF/Pine like I think it may be then I very nearly caught all three scum with this post.

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - I opened the day pushing on Chickadee *as a direct result of the D1 consolidated lynch

[GuiltyLion]

hello everyone!

are there any scumhunting matters to attend to today or should we just focus on the challenge?

I'm gonna start

!start#2

hopefully this puts us on a non-mine tile number 2. and ofrhz is right, you should always state the number of the tile you are trying to go to when you do a command.

[GuiltyLion]

keep it up my friends

not much to do here other than pop in and say hi whenever we're at the end of the row and waiting for the mod, if I'm around next time there's a move opportunity I'll help

anybody excited about NFL gameday today? GO RAVENS

[GuiltyLion]

keep it up my friends

not much to do here other than pop in and say hi whenever we're at the end of the row and waiting for the mod, if I'm around next time there's a move opportunity I'll help

anybody excited about NFL gameday today? GO RAVENS

I have no idea about NFL How about EPL/Champions

ah I only follow international soccer tournaments really, there's way too many sports for me to try to stay on top of club leagues. Love watching the game though - I saw pretty much all of this year's world cup

[GuiltyLion]

thanks for keeping track of the grid btw Enigma, you're doing good work

[GuiltyLion]

Hi don't replace me! Reading

[GuiltyLion]

!forwardRight

37

[GuiltyLion]

CM I'd like to know who you think is scum and who you'd bet the game on being town before we go into night phase

At the moment your slot is kinda currently consensus most likely to be scum

[GuiltyLion]

(Kokichi and Mylo are both scum reads based on interactions too, not just simply the votes)

how can they both be scumreads based on their interactions? There's only one scum left, by definition one of them has to be town. So which is scummier and why? And which interactions look bad to you?

If you care about us being productive after your death you should put in more effort than this

[GuiltyLion]

I've been in Japan (flying back today) and it seems we've got the challenge on lock (again, thanks a bunch Enigma/ofrhz) so I've put this on the back burner. I don't really want to put a ton of effort into rereading/alternnative theories until I see the PF/CM flip, as I still think that slot is last scum. I personally don't have anything extra to discuss right now but happy to debate Kokichi or Mylo with CM if he wants to. I'd like to see more of a case than he's really given us if he's town here

[GuiltyLion]

alright so initial thoughts

claiming fortunate/unfortunate

- I'm pretty sure it's the right play today for the two fortunates to claim w/ what day they become fortunate. If scum CCs either of them it's autowin for town, so that won't happen, which means we'll have a 1 in 3 shot of lynching correctly tonight and if we get that wrong we still have a conftown in LYLO. Does anyone disagree with this?

encryption challenge

- I haven't spent much time looking at it but my first things I've noticed:
1) there are no spaces in the message. This means either one of the characters maps to a "space" value or the decrypted message has no spaces in it. No spaces would be rather cruel in terms of difficulty to decrypt so I'm leaning towards the former.
2) punctuation - there's a bunch of quotation marks, commas, question marks, periods scattered throughout. The quotation marks definitely don't look like regular English usage, so that probably maps to a character. The "..." is noticeable - you almost never see three characters repeated in regular English so I think that may be in the original message, and that may imply that "."s are still used as normal.
3) double letters - I notice a bunch of duplicate letters in the encrypted message. "ll", "oo", "pp", "bb", "ss", "aa", "rr" are all present at least once. If it's just a one-to-one mapping, would an English message have that many occurrences of repeated unique letters? Not entirely sure, either way those are probably fairly critical towards figuring out what's going on.

I'll start doing find and replace on different characters with spaces to see if anything looks like a more normal message

[GuiltyLion]

also Enigma is a weird kill, I would have assumed he'd be a viable mislynch for scum. Probably they thought he slipped/crumbed fortunate somewhere, but I'm kinda relieved his slot was flipped for us already

[GuiltyLion]

ehh I'm getting less confident about my "one character maps to a space" idea. some of the longer strings of characters unbroken by any punctuation -

ltetemylleufauootsynnhtahtyrtdeneppa

reuxamdekcipenimaxednapeht

ditgniogmpotevahonwodrehtu

I'm not seeing a letter that makes sense as a key for a space shared amongst all three of those. They're all way too long to be a common English word, but I don't see a common character shared amongst all three that breaks them up cleanly/logically. Is it possible the encryption pattern changes with each line, or is that already going too deep into the rabbit hole?

[GuiltyLion]

"deye-sso" is repeated twice... that's also a good place to start

[GuiltyLion]

I think the punctuation may be

scrambled

as well

this may be a scumslip? I had been thinking encryption/decryption meant some kind of translating between letters that were in the correct

sequence

. But ofrhz is right, it actually looks a lot more like a "scramble" - the letter frequencies seem like the right ratio (don't see many Qs/Xs/Zs), and it would make sense/be fairly solvable if it's just a bunch of correct letters arranged in a different order in some pattern.

more thoughts in a sec

[GuiltyLion]

took the first line of the message and started pulling out letters to make words that seem related to the game, here's some progress:

ltetemylleooynnhtahty.yadotemarymkootitot,,ibdiasdvehcsitibbarym",si...deye-ssyynareh"?ehrofodnac

unfortunate, saboteur, exam, tonight, trapped

this seems to be on the right track... there's probably some system/ordering for swapping letters around and we just have to descramble. will keep thinking on this.

if anyone solves it don't post the solution yet as we need to ensure time to claim and argue a lynch for tonight

[GuiltyLion]

ltetemylleufauootsynnhtahty

rtde

ne

ppa

.yadotemobarymkootitot,xam,tibdiasdnatevehcsitibbarym",si...deye-ssoroygnihtynaereht"?rehrofodnacu

specifically with this

all the letters you need for "trapped" are right here, sort of in order but backwards. "rt" "de" "ppa". Could even throw in the "en" and make "entrapped". So I think it's collections of letters grouped by 2s and 3s, reversed

first word would be "tl" "te" "me" - mettle? "oot" = too? I think there's something here but haven't quite broken it. might be good to go through and reverse the whole string and see if that adds clarity, will do that in a sec

[GuiltyLion]

oh lol yeah reversing is definitely key, first line looks like this -

ucandoforher?"thereanythingyoross-eyed...is,"myrabbitischevetandsaidbit,max,totitookmyrabometoday.appenedtrythathnnystoouafuellymetetl

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I'm fairly confident I'm close to solving this now

although I'm also not sure it even matters, bc scum will counterclaim the new fortunate in LYLO if they'd otherwise be caught by POE. but it's a fun puzzle

[GuiltyLion]

I'm the other fortunate. I became fortunate after the counting challenge

I'd like Feysal/Kokichi/ofrhz's reads now

[GuiltyLion]

hi I am really sorry for disappearing, had a lot going on this weekend

I am going to reread everything today and post some thoughts/maybe questions later. I'm leaning scum!ofrhz but will definitely need to deep think on this and unfortunately I have not had time to do that and do this game justice. I'm not gonna just let this die without a huge thought dump though, so even if we get it wrong tonight if I am killed I hope to leave Mylo with enough information to help gamesolve tomorrow.

[GuiltyLion]

aw mutant don't be hard on yourself! I had fun playing this game and while not all the challenges were maximally engaging, I felt the game experience itself was run well and I had no issues or frustrations with how it was modded! I really appreciate the effort you put into hosting the game and the flavor, it was enjoyable and I'm glad I got to play

As far as feedback on the challenges I liked, I think the counting one and the riddle were good and similar challenges could work in the next setup. The minefield one was good but a bit easy, I'm not sure how scum could reasonably sabotage that. Maybe consider something closer to the game Saboteur https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/9220/saboteur where players have private tiles they can play and so you can plausibly deny that you have useful moves to be making.

The word dictionary one and the number guessing one I found less compelling because players didn't have any agency whatsoever in those, like Irrelephant called out at one point.

My one other piece of feedback is to think about whether there's a way to shorten the voting/night phases? I know not everyone (including myself) was on the ball with responding to the questions/vote in a timely matter and that mafia needs time after the vote to decide who to kill, but having two 2 b2b night phases without day play always felt like a bit of a wrench in the game's momentum.

Also no hard feelings Mylo, that was a tough decision. Kokichi played well, he's got a strong scumgame by tone/ease of posting. I should have done more to pull it out on 5p, but I didn't work hard enough to resolve my ofrhz paranoia.