SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Shoshin]

What's the role?

[Krazy]

I get to choose someone and the next day we have to vote together.

[Shoshin]

I get to choose someone and the next day we have to vote together.

Who chooses the vote?

[Krazy]

I'll say some more about it later. I'd like to hear from Deas about his thoughts on CShep.

[Vaxkiller]

My "I shot you and your still alive" post was referring to yesterday, but it still doesnt change the fact that cshep is scum

[Vaxkiller]

Vax full claim

Vax full claim

I will fucking do anything if we can lynch cshep to prove im right. If im wrong im prolly due for a break after finishing the game out.

[Krazy]

Vote CShep

Spoiler alert that's L-2.

[the worst]

massclaim y/y?

[Krazy]

That this day isn't over already strongly suggests to me that C.Shep is scum.

I've already half-claimed, which is as much as I'm saying right now.

[Punreader]

VOTE: Shoshin
Punreader said they were shooting Shoshin and Shoshin is alive.

Can confirm, but you apparently missed the more important half of my shot.
My shot was half to test my ranking. With Shoshin still alive, we can thus deduce that Shoshin is ranked higher than me. We do not need to assume Shoshin was protected since it is quite probable for Shoshin to be higher than me.

The correct lynch for today is this:
VOTE: Fire Assassin.

Is pun reader even talking to you? I mean he was BARELY here yesterday!!!!!!

You apparently missed this:

I am here and will be reading shortly.

I was literally the last post before thread lock, announcing I was beginning my catch-up. Sure enough, my notification of the thread being locked was in my attempt to quote a post only to have it not work.

I was catching up and mere minutes away from posting the following, which my neighborhood can confirm I promptly posted to our PT:

3. Punreader - BP to all players ranked lower, vig to all players ranked lower (further reading: serial killer)

How many times will I need to correct people on this? It is bulletproof to people ranked higher, vigs players ranked lower.

@theworst can you explain what happened with pun/cshep/myself last night?

CShep is higher ranked than Pun so Pun's action had no effect. Remove Pun from the equation and recalculate.

Pun should have known that, why wasnt this brought up in their "Night Neighborhood"?

To the contrary!

During the night, I was a little swamped. I didn't have the time to calculate rankings myself, manually.
So what I did, is I relied on the worst's rankings. This post, to be specific:

let's do thisssssssss

scores are approximate since the double-weighted scores are not an exact doubling of themselves (evidenced by Pine's slot; to get his average he'd have needed a 0 from Reuben/Lovebird which we know is not correct).
even so these are probably close enough to the actual scores that I'm feeling comfortable.

Position	Name	Rank
1st	Chara	8.29
2nd	the worst	7.19
3rd	Taly	6.71
4th	TehBrawlGuy	6.29
5th	Dunnstral	6.25
6th	Punreader	6.06
7th	Nahdia	6.00
8th	DeasVail	5.56
9th	Espeonage	5.56
10th	Shoshin	5.44
11th	MariaR	5.38
12th	Pine	4.94
13th	ManWithNoName	4.75
14th	Fire Assassin	4.71
15th	Vaxkiller	4.13
16th	PenguinPower	4.06
17th	Lovebird	2.00
18th	NicoRobin	1.63

Spoiler: data tabled (more #aesthetic than useful but....fight me)

X axis : receiver of score
Y axis : giver of score

	RECEIVER
GIVER	TehBrawlGuy	Taly	Punreader	MariaR	DeasVail	Espeonage	Dunnstral	Nahdia	the worst	Pine	Shoshin	Fire Assassin	Lovebird	Chara	ManWithNoName	Vaxkiller	PenguinPower	NicoRobin
TehBrawlGuy	10	1	10	8	5	0	9	6	2	10	7	4	5	6	3	4	0	0
Taly	5	10	10	6	6	0	2	4	9	5	8	1	3	10	7	0	0	4
Punreader	0	10	10	6	4	6	9	8	5	0	7	5	2	10	1	4	0	3
MariaR	9	4	10	10	5	10	5	0	8	2	4	3	0	6	6	1	7	0
DeasVail	3	10	10	0	10	2	4	5	9	4	8	5	1	6	7	6	0	0
Espeonage	9	8	4	5	6	10	10	4	7	0	3	0	1	5	2	10	6	0
Dunnstral	2	9	7	6	4	8	10	5	5	4	3	10	0	10	6	0	1	0
Nahdia	4	5	10	3	5	6	2	10	7	4	6	9	1	10	0	0	8	0
the worst	6	10	5	8	6	9	2	7	10	4	3	1	0	10	0	4	5	0
Pine	10	9	0					0		10		8		10			0
Shoshin	8	10	5	0	6	3	6	4	9	1	10	2	0	10	7	5	0	4
Fire Assassin	8	2	3	9	5	0	4	10	7	4	6	10	1	10	6	0	4	0
Lovebird
Chara	10	10	8	6	5	4	5	9	7	0	6	4	3	10	0	0	2	1
ManWithNoName	10	10	4	1	0	0	6	5	7	4	8	5	3	9	10	6	0	2
Vaxkiller	0	0	7	0	6	4	2	10	5	10	4	9	5	3	6	10	8	1
PenguinPower	9	0	0	10	8	7	10	3	6	2	4	4	5	0	5	6	10	1
NicoRobin	4	6	0	8	8	20	14	12	12	20	0	0	2	16	10	10	18	10
	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE	AVERAGE
	6.29	6.71	6.06	5.38	5.56	5.56	6.25	6.00	7.19	4.94	5.44	4.71	2.00	8.29	4.75	4.13	4.06	1.63
	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS	TENS
	4	7	6	2	1	3	3	3	1	4	1	2	0	9	2	3	1	1
	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES	ZEROES
	2	2	3	3	1	4	0	2	0	3	1	2	4	1	3	5	7	8
unaccounted votes	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	1	2
unaccounted points	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	0	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	11
av. unacc. score	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	0	???	???	???	???	???	???	???	5.5

By this post, my shot would have worked.

But on D3, I calculated the rankings myself rather than relying on the worst, and by my calculations, it was plausible I was ranked below Nahdia rather than above.

you'd lynch me next?

Yes, I was quite clear about this earlier:

I'm fairly confident in three pun being Fire Assassin, Shoshin, and ManWithNoName (outside chance of the worst) at this point

I'm p comfortable that one of them is a serial killer. if pun is honestly intending to turn around and say they magically want to lynch me after treating me like I'm town all game I think that's a soft SK claim. (they as a SK would need everyone ranked higher than them lynched or sorted by NK)

Alternatively, you were a weak townread, all my punreads thusfar have flipped town, and

two players suspicious of you died overnight.

That changes things.

[Punreader]

Speaking of rankings:

10. MariaR:
2 10s
1 9
2 8s
4 6s
1 5
1+1 4s
1 3
1 1
3 0s

20 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 1 = 86
2 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
86 / 17 = 5.06

9. MariaR

(TOWN)

Average:

5.11

Number of 10s:

2

Number of 0s:

3

Maria's rank and number is higher than predicted. She should have been one rank lower with 5.06, rather than the 5.11 she got. However, this is still fairly within the margin of error I would say.

[Punreader]

Given these rankings and the results of my shot, we can deduce I am most likely ranked at #11: below Shoshin, who is below MariaR.

Thus, my shot failed on Commander Shepherd because Nahdia was ranked even higher than Shoshin was.

This is not rocket science.

If you assume I am rank 11, everything makes sense. My shot on Pine went through because he was rank 12, lower than me; my shot on Commander Shepherd failed because he is ranked at around 5 give or take; my shot on Shoshin failed because Shoshin is ranked immediately above me at #10.

So my kills have failed not because of some doctor protection or some roleblock, but simply because I am too lowly ranked to have made them successfully.

This is, in my opinion, not a bad thing, given it means I am bulletproof to...literally everyone except for Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller, and guacamole. (An absolute maximum of two being pun. Most likely, just the one, and almost certainly, being Fire Assassin.)

[Punreader]

Just to put it on the record:
Since I know Fire Assassin is ranked lower than me, if we don't lynch him, I'm shooting him.
But we should just be lynching him.

In the event we do lynch him, I am not nightkilling either of guacamole or Vaxkiller tonight. (As I have strong reason to believe Vaxkiller is town, I will not shoot him. While guacamole has a chance at being pun, and has been a punread of mine the whole game, I've since come to doubt that read and feel it was wrong.)

[Krazy]

This large theme involves way too much math.

Why is C.Shep not scum?

[Krazy]

We're also behind in the race. Why are you not shooting him during the night and lynching higher ranked scum?

[Punreader]

Why is C.Shep not scum?

Because this is not his pungame. For further detail, read this:

Pun, why do you think Shepard is town?

Experience.

I have played with Commander Shepherd, and I know for a fact you have, too. I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".

Neither of those is present and I can thus say that this is his town self with absolute confidence.

...Also I am privy to his neighborhood talk so there is that as well.

Additionally, I felt Nahdia was playing to their town meta, and that ActionDan was playing to his town meta before that.

The slot has been solid the whole game across all three slots, but only in ways obvious to someone with extensive experience with them.

I know precisely the type of moonlogic he uses and how he goes on the crazy tirades he does.

I can also differentiate between him genuinely doing so, faking having done so, and genuinely doing so but still being pun anyway. All three have signature telltale signs. When the process is faked, it sticks out like a sore thumb and I can instantly nail him for it. When he is genuine but still pun anyway, there is an indigence in that he feels like he was caught for bullshit reasons: "right, for the wrong reasons".

To further explain, because I know precisely the type of logical reasoning he uses, I can follow his thought process along perfectly the entire time. There is never a point where, when he is genuine, I will be confused at how he got to his conclusion.

While his conclusions will always make me facepalm as I know exactly the points where his reasoning goes from reasonable to absurd, I can still follow the process from start to finish, and know that there were no leaps too extreme to have been made sincerely. These changes may seem difficult to follow at first, but once you know how his mind works, it's quite easy.

And I can confidently say, I've been putting myself in his shoes. I know he's wrong for numerous reasons from the fact doctors

do

protect against all kills, my kill is dependent on him being ranked lower than me when he is almost assuredly ranked higher than me (thus only necessitating the explanation of Vaxkiller's failure, which is easily explained as him being roleblocked), and similar facts.

But while I know he's wrong, I can follow precisely how he came to those conclusions step by step, including why he believes things that are objectively wrong. I know him well enough to know that he would never deliberately intentionally lie about a provable fact, such as mafia theory. Thus, mistakes such as stating a doctor can only protect against a single kill I know are regardless of his alignment going to have been sincere.

Any player having played extensively with Commander Shepherd yet maintaining a strong punread on him is, automatically, suspect in my book because they by all rights should know better. This is his towngame. It is frustrating to play with to no end, but you do not lynch pun by lynching players that frustrate you; you lynch pun by lynching pun.

We're also behind in the race. Why are you not shooting him during the night and lynching higher ranked scum?

If you are referring to Fire Assassin, it is because he claimed cop, and my reasons for not lynching or shooting the cop claim were outlined previously:

Please talk me though why you don't want to lynch someone you think is going to flip scum?

How many times do I need to quote it?

Pun

, can you give me your thoughts on

Fire/Maria

?

I could see any combination of town-town, pun-pun, town-pun, or pun-town as possible. I can tell you on play I am not punreading MariaR, which would make it slightly more likely it's town-town or pun-town, but this is not locked in. Regardless of their alignment, however, correct play is to let both live and gather more results.

After all, if both are town then pun can't let both go unchecked.

I'm highly suspect of

Fire

at this point

Suspect him all you want.

He is objectively a terrible lynch today because we have two cop claims; if both

are

town (and yes I realize people doubt this but it is not impossible), then pun's only option is to deal with them during the night, lest they both produce more results.

I am telling you now that if we lynch Fire Assassin today and he flips town the entire punteam will be on that wagon and I will lynch exclusively from the players on it, for precisely this reason.

Now I admit, there is a significant chance Fire Assassin is just pun, but this changes nothing.

If he is pun fakeclaiming cop, he still has to produce results every day, or be lynched when he fails to do so.

So we wait.

We give him, at minimum, one day phase.

Correct play in a theme game such as this is not to lynch a cop claim and if the cop flips town lynch the other cop claim; correct play in a theme game is to not lynch either cop claim and let them investigate for a night, and then off of those investigation results, revisit and reevaluate every day on whether to lynch one of the cops and if so which one.

This is unchanged. Reevaluation has determined he is significantly more likely to be pun than yesterday, but he is not absolutely certain to be pun. And on the off chance he is town (after all, our track record in nailing down pun thusfar has not been stellar so who's to say this read is right when prior punreads have been wrong?), then this will sort itself out overnight when the pun are put up against two cop investigations the same night.

MariaR could not investigate last night.
MariaR

can

investigate tonight.
And if Fire Assassin fails to produce an investigative result tomorrow for any reason, we lynch him for it on the spot.

It's simply a matter of optimal play.

Optimal play is to lynch Fire Assassin tomorrow.

I do feel he is pun, but I also feel that objectively speaking, the optimal play is to wait one day before lynching him.

We waited the one day.

Now we lynch him.

[Krazy]

I'm convinced that you don't think he's scum but I'm not convinced that you're not some third party bullshit. This fucks up my reads some, but not quite enough to change votes.

Your roleclaim is way too convoluted to be entirely fake. But at a glance it kinda seems way too dope to be town-aligned.

[Punreader]

I'm convinced that you don't think he's scum

Then you need only ask yourself one question.

"Does Punreader's conviction on Commander Shepherd being town hold merit?"

If the answer is yes, you should not be voting him. If you believe I genuinely don't think he's pun, and you think that belief holds merit, then he should not be the lynch.

If the answer is no, then you should have some

darn

good reasons for why not.

[Krazy]

Sheeping Maria.

Wish I had a more compelling reason, but I'm pretty lost in this game, and Maria's reads were the only thing that at any point made sense to either me or my predecessor.

[Punreader]

Sheeping Maria.

Maria was a claimed cop; her death is explained as a PR kill.

I have a better idea for you.

Sheep Taly and TehBrawlGuy; neither was a PR kill, and both were kills likely on the merits of their play.

They are the players you want to listen to.

Additional reasoning for Commander Shepherd being town:
It is common belief that I am a 3p in this game. Were Commander Shepherd pun, I feel that Commander Shepherd would simply have shot our third neighbor N2 (a night we know was not a PR kill and was instead a play kill), so as to try and collaborate with me. (After all, what's the worst that could happen from a failed collaboration? They nightkill me, which they are able to do when sending the right person.)

This also works vice-versa, for why the neighbor is town. Were the neighbor pun, I'd expect the pun to have nightkilled Commander Shepherd, to try and collaborate with me. (After all, what's the worst that could happen from a failed collaboration? They nightkill me, which they are able to do when sending the right person.)

Given neither happened, it is then a safe assumption our neighborhood is all-town.

[Punreader]

also, because I didn't want to muck up the day any further and distract from PP lynch, I want to snipe this now in case I die - TW has been pinging me pretty hard for a long time, and I'd suggest you all reevaluate your TRs on him, because tbh I think our most likely loss scenario is keeping him alive through endgame if he's Scum. This is especially directed at Taly, who asked me about his townbloc earlier and whom I mostly agree with at this point. I'm definitely not committing to going after TW tomorrow, because I need to do my own reread and look at results of PP lynch, but it does bother me that he's so widely townread.

This in particular is what I am talking about and was the main factor in my shift in read on the worst.

I listened to the dead town.

You should, too.

Also relevant:

Also disagree with lynching Fire today. I agree he's the most likely Scum out of the 4 linked by roles, + Maria's claim, but if he's town, leaving him alive forces the mafia to either get copped or deal with him for us.

His thoughts mirrored my own, on letting Fire Assassin live until today, but thinking him pun anyway.

[Punreader]

DV

is my scumread though. It's based off PoE a good bit, but it's not for info solely.

I'm highly suspect of

Fire

at this point

Espe/Vax/Dunn

are cleared to me, and based off roles. In the same breath, I feel

Maria

is cleared too, but it seems like nobody thinks so.

These may also be noteworthy.

[Krazy]

I guess Chara was skeptical of the speed of hammers but I kind of don't think scum let Shepherd not get lynched yesterday if he's town. That's probably not very good reasoning though.

At some point I need to sit down and work up a flowchart of wtf is even going on in this game. Right now feeling better about Shepherd than anyone else though.

[Commander Shepard]

On an away mission til Saturday
Commander Anderson gave me an urgent mission that has to be completed.

Will check in as I can.

[Dunnstral]

Given these rankings and the results of my shot, we can deduce I am most likely ranked at #11: below Shoshin, who is below MariaR.

Thus, my shot failed on Commander Shepherd because Nahdia was ranked even higher than Shoshin was.

This is not rocket science.

If you assume I am rank 11, everything makes sense. My shot on Pine went through because he was rank 12, lower than me; my shot on Commander Shepherd failed because he is ranked at around 5 give or take; my shot on Shoshin failed because Shoshin is ranked immediately above me at #10.

So my kills have failed not because of some doctor protection or some roleblock, but simply because I am too lowly ranked to have made them successfully.

This is, in my opinion, not a bad thing, given it means I am bulletproof to...literally everyone except for Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller, and guacamole. (An absolute maximum of two being pun. Most likely, just the one, and almost certainly, being Fire Assassin.)

Ok, how about killing fire assassin tonight?

I haven't looked at the alive numbers/etc, vax can you shoot again?