Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Gustavo]

FTR i’d prefer an Errant flip over a BV flip right now...
Reading on.

But for lylo it makes more sense than vote me or bv. Trying to decide in lylo if I was shot or he was BP is probably a bad idea

[Keyser Söze]

I really can't see either errant or gustavo being scum. Gustavo's whole "I'm voting Shoshin and my mind isn't being changed or it'll get toxic" attitude is a bit too far to go as scum. He does switch to Gamma but he backs it up with the accusation that Gamma wasn't voting. Since he used the same argument against me, I believe that he truly believes it.

Why is scum-BV closing down avenues on Errant and Gustavo on D4? BV is automatically placing himself in the PoE, banking everything on N_M flipping red.

[Keyser Söze]

FTR i’d prefer an Errant flip over a BV flip right now...
Reading on.

But for lylo it makes more sense than vote me or bv. Trying to decide in lylo if I was shot or he was BP is probably a bad idea

Can’t 1sbp and you exist in the same set-up?

[Keyser Söze]

Now reading stungun0404/Gustavo - a slot who in my head, I've admittedly t/read since D1 (and done nothing with the slot since), despite Gustavo's aggressive entrance (which I viewed as a townie-caught-in-confirm-bias).

[Gustavo]

FTR i’d prefer an Errant flip over a BV flip right now...
Reading on.

But for lylo it makes more sense than vote me or bv. Trying to decide in lylo if I was shot or he was BP is probably a bad idea

Can’t 1sbp and you exist in the same set-up?

Yes but bv being shot doesn’t really make much sense and the claim came when mafia was faking a guilty on him. They had inside info so Bp claim could very well be fake.

Let me ask you this. What combo would you rather have in lylo

Me/errant
Bv/errant
Me/bv

[Gustavo]

Now reading stungun0404/Gustavo - a slot who in my head, I've admittedly t/read since D1 (and done nothing with the slot since), despite Gustavo's aggressive entrance (which I viewed as a townie-caught-in-confirm-bias).

Why did everyone tr stun?

[Gustavo]

Like I get why garmr and rob are voting me. I honestly don’t know why anyone else is scum reading me. I’ve not been scummy at all and I’ve put more effort into solving the game than anyone else. Whoever is town voting me really need to start justifying their votes. I’m at l-2 and I’ve caught 2 scum

[Keyser Söze]

Can people show me why Errant is town outside the neighborizer claim.

the neighborizer claim + outing tw + tw interactions when tw fake-claimed all feel super town to me

nothing earlier than that really felt town

Factor in the knowledge that we know scum had day chat and a night phase to plan this a potential fake claim gambit... does this effect how you see Errant's interactions/reactions?


Now, compare that to BV's D4 interaction/reaction when tw fake-claimed...
- BV said he didn't even know TW had investigated him...

why is he playing ignorant?

- BV even presenting the possibility of town-TW via his claim...

why is scum-BV doing this? the angry mob want TW's blood.

- BV was so slow getting a vote down on TW...

BV gets zero town-cred for that late hammer.

I really

don't think scum-BV played this fake-claim that optimally for himself

. Whereas Errant... I've re-read that whole day, and kinda done a U-turn to believe it all as one big theatrical stunt.

[Keyser Söze]

Let me ask you this. What combo would you rather have in lylo

Me/errant
Bv/errant
Me/bv

Probably you and BV right now.

I'm open/willing to be persuaded. I want to at least t/read you or Skitter first (tried to reset my reads for D5).

[Gustavo]

Really? Interesting

[Keyser Söze]

I was hoping my paranoia of BV would grow today, but actually feeling cooler on that slot now :S

I feel his catch up is the most suspicious part of his ISO... it did seem like he was speaking from a position and to other players, knowing that mom/TW was scum. But as BV began to post in real time/defend himself/express changing reads that I can view him as a townie.

[Keyser Söze]

Really? Interesting

I'd vote for BV today,

only if

I maintain a renewed solid town read of both you and skitter.

[Keyser Söze]

Gustavo, read through Errant today and give me your thorough thoughts. I don’t want to see you building a case on him tomorrow instead of today.

[Gustavo]

Gustavo, read through Errant today and give me your thorough thoughts. I don’t want to see you building a case on him tomorrow instead of today.

I won’t be building a case on him tomorrow either. For me it’s literally one of 2 people. I don’t have to convince you or elephant who to vote.

I know that’s a shirt attitude but I’m lazy.

If you guys REALLY want something from me, it won’t come before Monday.

[Keyser Söze]

Yeah we have time to wait.

Yes, I’d like to hear why you think BV is scum versus why you think Errant is scum (presuming you are happy with your skitter t/read)

[Gustavo]

I mean I’m not completely happy with my tr on skitter since he’s been my scum read majority of the game but that’s a waste of time.

I rest think we need to decide if scum faked a guilty on scum or scum faked being neighbors with scum.

[Irrelephant11]

Gustavo you're confusing me. You've said a couple times something like "since it's either ep/bv and we have two lynches we almost definitely just win" and also "I should probably be one of the two lynches" and now "skitter might also be scum, I'm just not going to try if so". Those all contradict. Which do you mean to say?

[Keyser Söze]

Skitter is still lynchable.
Share your scum read of skitter in full .

Only me and Irrelephant11 are not on the table for today /tomorrow.

[Keyser Söze]

Is BV still your #1 option. Irrelephant11?
I’ve got cold feet there now :/

Tell me if anything I wrote about his posts makes sense

[Gustavo]

Gustavo you're confusing me. You've said a couple times something like "since it's either ep/bv and we have two lynches we almost definitely just win" and also "I should probably be one of the two lynches" and now "skitter might also be scum, I'm just not going to try if so". Those all contradict. Which do you mean to say?

From my POV it’s 3 possible people. Nobody seems to suspect skitter and even I can’t realy make a case for her. My read has basically been a gut thing. So if I eliminate skitter from the pool it’s down to two people.

I don’t want lylo to come down to me/bv because I feel no matter what I’ll get lynched. It’s more beneficial to determine if scum faked guilty on bv because he’s town or because he’s scum.

[BlackVoid]

The thing that makes me paranoid about the gamestate is that the people I find scummy (like Errant, TW) are okay with a Momrangal wagon and Irrelephant is okay with both. Gamestate-wise, Momra/TW are the two wagons likely to go through so

I'm no longer considering them to be partners

. One could be scum but not both. I really want to re-evaluate the people outside my strongest townpile but who are not actively in my scumpile which is Nauci/Keyser/Not_Mafia.

Would wagonomics really dispel all of BV’s scum reads/theories/understanding of TW-Mom associations???
Think BV turned too easily away from TW-Mom here. They were both scummy slots.. why can’t they both be scum in isolation?

(I believe this point may have already been highlighted...)

Two points. First off, you are conflating me having accurate reads with me knowing TheMom/Worst are scum. As a townie entering the game, if people are townreading your strong scumreads, it's something you want to know about. You should be looking at the actual REASONS why I suspected Momrangal/TheWorst instead of trying to draw inferences from the fact that I suspected them and then judging whether they are reasons a townie would genuinely suspect them for.

Secondly, I backed off from TheMom/Worst team because it seemed like the choice between the lynches was the two of them. I found it unlikely that they were both scum. Suspecting me because of it is suspecting me for a very reasonable observation. It's very rare for both scum to be pressured and be pretty much the only lynch choices. They could be scum in isolation, it just felt complacent to assume that at that point. Honestly, if I were scum that really committed to bussing, I'd never make that statement. I'd just want to cash in the towncred.

[BlackVoid]

Heading off to work. More detailed posting in the evening.

[Irrelephant11]

Is BV still your #1 option. Irrelephant11?
I’ve got cold feet there now :/

Tell me if anything I wrote about his posts makes sense

mmmm unsure. I think EP has moved in front of Gustavo though?

I just am trying to think of the worst's gambit and what it means rn

[Irrelephant11]

in scum!BV world,

the worst claims a guilty on BV > BV gets lynched, flips red > We have one mafia left to find and the worst is semi-cleared if-and-only-if no other PRs find him out
~ or ~
the worst claims a guilty on BV > the worst gets lynched, flips red > We have one mafia left to find and BV isn't really cleared at all and has lots of attention on him

alternatively, in a town!BV world
the worst claims a guilty on BV > BV gets lynched, flips green > We have two mafia left to find but we know the worst is one of them, but meanwhile scum get an extra night kill that they were not otherwise guaranteed
~ or ~
the worst claims a guilty on BV > the worst gets lynched, flips red > We have one mafia left and are distracted by BV's slot for the rest of the game

Seems unlikely that the worst playing to his wincon intentionally chooses the former set of situations > points to town!BV

If skitter and BV can manage to clear each other with certainty I'm good with that. Then we lynch the other two and win?

[Irrelephant11]

I think EP has moved in front of Gustavo though?

On the other hand, there have been zero moments this game where I've been like "yeah Gustavo, I think the exact same as you" and that p much applied to stungun too (also I really only evre moved him above null because Shoshin semi-cleared him which doesn't apply if BV is town here), so maybe he's the next lynch

The stakes feel too low rn

VOTE: Gustavo