Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)


User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3475 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:42 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2414, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2392, brassherald wrote:Franklin Delano Roosevelt was no stranger to his cousins, either, in fact, he married one of them, another fifth cousin, Eleanor Roosevelt.

Votecount 2.10



the worst (2)
~ ,
Keyser Soze (1)
~
Gustavo (1)
~

Not Voting (2): BlackVoid, Momrangal, ,

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-15 20:30:00)
This should be 5 yes? I count 5

Yes, I can only reliably count to 4
As of this VC deadline is in 2 days. After this BlackVoid is talking about evaluating claims and says he wants to iso some more before voting. He scum reads both players. Why does he need more time?

Probably stalling for mom to pop in with their agreed upon fake claim perhaps?
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3476 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:43 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2422, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 2393, Bernie Sanders wrote:
In post 2389, BlackVoid wrote:It might actually be a good idea for TheWorst/Momrangal to claim. If we're going to wait all the way until intent is given, we're probably going to scramble towards deadline and it seems pretty obvious that those are our likely options.
Excuse me
We're not getting 2 claims

Blackvoid I thought you would know better than this wtf

I guess mom can claim if she wants but tbh I really don't think I'd believe any PR claim that comes out of her to begin with.
I think people undervalue how important it is to have time to discuss claims. I know it's a probably controversial opinion but I don't value concealing their claims more than I value that additional day or two we'll have to talk about them. We can then reach a consensus as opposed to last-minute deadline panic with half the playerlist not here.
Even Bernie was like no way dude
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3477 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:43 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

This is kinda getting nowhere. I'm going to let others weigh in while I continue my re-read.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3478 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:45 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 2423, BlackVoid wrote:Rask, I'm going to do an ISO of both Momrangal and TheWorst before putting down a vote but I'm actually leaning towards TheWorst at this point.
2 days left. Mom was previously his top scumnread. All of a sudden gamma is asking for claims and doesn’t want to vote mom who is the encryptor?

It’s gotta be bv
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3479 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

I addressed it already. Read my ISO. I'll quote it if anybody other than you legitimately wants to know.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3480 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:47 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 3474, BlackVoid wrote:You brought it up as a point in your favor. Based on context, it's not. So, it's misleading.
I was the only one on both. Regardless why I was on there I was there.

So am I town who got lucky or scum who double bussed when I didn’t have to?

You weren’t on mom and almost wasn’t on tw, despite him claiming a guilty on you.

Regardless of context I look better than you imo

This is why I said TODAY should be between me and you.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3481 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:48 pm

Post by Gustavo »

Definitely looks like you were stalling....
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3482 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:51 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 3480, Gustavo wrote:
In post 3474, BlackVoid wrote:You brought it up as a point in your favor. Based on context, it's not. So, it's misleading.
I was the only one on both.
Regardless why I was on there I was there.

So am I town who got lucky or scum who double bussed when I didn’t have to?

You weren’t on mom and almost wasn’t on tw, despite him claiming a guilty on you.

Regardless of context I look better than you imo

This is why I said TODAY should be between me and you.
No, context is the most important thing. You voted Momrangal when there was no other option. You voted TheWorst and only didn't unvote because he got hammered before you came back. You were never here for the claim and the 1v1. That definitely does not look good. You claiming that it's towny and using terms like "double-bussing" is what I actually find scummy here.

You didn't get lucky as town. You were townreading Momrangal. You weren't voting TheWorst to lynch him.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3483 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:54 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 3348, BlackVoid wrote:For anyone suspecting me: you have to believe that Gustavo was the kill target N1. Except what motivation does scum have to kill someone who spent most of their time tunneling Shoshin and being a distraction?
Here is another reason why it should be me or bv. Bv basically brought it up in a round about way.

Though bv was town reading me after shos claimed he saved me wasn’t he? Pretty sure he was. Interesting how I’m now possible scum because people suspect him
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3484 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 3482, BlackVoid wrote:You voted Momrangal when there was no other option.
I could have pretended to be busy and stayed off the wagon. Or pretended I needed more time to read.

There is always an option. Bussing is stupid
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3485 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:57 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 3482, BlackVoid wrote:You didn't get lucky as town.
This means you think I’m scum.

I did get lucky as town. I had no business on either wagon, yet I was.

I got lucky or I bussed. There is no 3rd option.
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3486 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

The flaw in your logic is the assumption that whichever of us weren't shot N1 is the scum. That's not the case. We could both be town but only one of us could have been shot N1. I think my slot probably was and I think it's unlikely that you were. That unlikeliness is a good reason why I'm town. But that doesn't anything about your alignment.

My townread on you had nothing to do with Shoshin's claim of protecting you. I was townreading you based off of your pred's play and to some extent, yours.

You are not possible scum because people suspect me. I don't think I ever said anything of that sort. You're possible scum because I'm confident it's not skitter and two others are cleared. And I'm trying to figure out whether you or Errant make more sense here.
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3487 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 3484, Gustavo wrote:
In post 3482, BlackVoid wrote:You voted Momrangal when there was no other option.
I could have pretended to be busy and stayed off the wagon. Or pretended I needed more time to read.

There is always an option. Bussing is stupid
Then Momrangal would just have been lynched without you on the wagon. Your vote made no difference other than for you to argue that you voting her makes you town.

I
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3488 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:00 pm

Post by Gustavo »

Is this what you wanted elephant and keyser? More fighting?

Just wasted time arguing and came out with the same conclusion and still think town has to resolve me/bv today.

Glad
I wasted my time
put some more effort into solving the game :roll:
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3489 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:04 pm

Post by Gustavo »

In post 3486, BlackVoid wrote:The flaw in your logic is the assumption that whichever of us weren't shot N1 is the scum. That's not the case. We could both be town but only one of us could have been shot N1.
That’s right. Hence why I asked keyser and elephant which they preferred in lylo.

Me and you
Me and errant
You and errant.

It doesn’t matter to me if you are lynched today or tomorrow. From my POV I find scum 100% unless it’s skitter.

You don’t think it’s skitter, nobody does.

So if you are town you win with my lynch or errant

If errant is town he wins with mine or yours


This is about making it easier on keyser/elephant cause whoever survives has to pick. I personally think you look like the last partner so it’s towns best interest to lynch you.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3490 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:05 pm

Post by Gustavo »

If anyone does think it’s skitter, or could be skitter, start posting shit cause I ain’t got anything
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3491 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:11 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

This only feels like wasted time because you keep talking past me and not addressing the actual substance of my points. Or maybe you think you are, I don't know. Then going back and arguing "suspected Momrangal but didn't vote her" with zero context.

Claiming town has to "resolve" two people is nonsensical. You evaluate all the possibilities and lynch the likeliest scum.

Pedit: I ruled out skitter but I haven't ruled out Errant. To consider him being scum, I have to believe that he either neighborized his partner (I've seen this before in a game I modded), or they just faked having a PT. Then I have to believe that he outed the info they shared in there and bussed TheWorst. That feels much less likely than you being scum but I have check the timeline again.
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3492 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:31 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Spoiler: Stungun's scum PT posts
In post 5, stungun0404 wrote:I am a mafia rolecop! glad to have powers to use. it was smart of you to lay a vote on me and scumread me for distancing purposes, so props!
distancing is one of the most important things you must perform when you have scum partners
, so you are doing well in that regard! you don’t want to be lynched, and then your partner be immediately lynched after you, if you get my drift!

I would say you are doing OK, but definitely take a backseat in terms of aggressive questioning! that is, because your question to invisibility early on would hit my scum radar if I was town.
In post 11, stungun0404 wrote:i think you should keep scumreading me, because it looks good for distancing purposes. however, just don’t go too far with it, as you still want to look pro-town

I think you should find a serious reason to townread espeonage, because then others would be reluctant to think you are scum when you are townreading a counterwagon AND also bringing in a perspective no one else has yet. and commit hard to it, that would look very good.

voting xander would be fine for your purposes; BUT do bring in a solid reason no one has stated yet.

I’ll see if I can help you out here, gimme a sec.
Absolutely don’t quote directly from this pt into the thread though, because that will out us both.

These posts actually resemble his gameplay here. He has a lot of focus on "distancing" and is extremely conscious about it. In this game, he's consistently had negative things to say about both scum. I thought it was rather unusual that he started suspecting Gemini so early on. If they liked playing with each other, I think Stungun as a townie would have a more positive disposition to her and be more willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. But this obsessive focus on distancing fits in with how he played this game.
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3493 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:33 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

I also couldn't follow his Keyser townread. He had an unusually hard townread there for murky reasoning. That also fits with his scum thinking where he thinks it's important to townread townies.
User avatar
Gustavo
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Gustavo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2376
Joined: April 24, 2018
Location: Unable to disclose per the terms of my witness protection order.

Post Post #3494 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by Gustavo »

Pretty sure I’ve addressed your posts. I also can’t ignore the fact that the most powerful of the flipped scum, you appeared to be stalling. Whether you were actually stalling or not won’t be known until you flip, but a very reasonable argument has been made supporting that and I don’t think you’ve defended yourself convincingly.

Your predecessor also had the chance to vote scum and didn’t.

2 people, same slot both having bad luck as town or is the slot scum? Who knows, but my vote says I think I know.
User avatar
BlackVoid
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
BlackVoid
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2725
Joined: September 15, 2016

Post Post #3495 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:49 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Heading off to bed. I'll ISO Errant in-depth tomorrow before I put down a vote but I'm pretty sure it's Gustavo at this point.
User avatar
Errantparabola
Errantparabola
Composed.
User avatar
User avatar
Errantparabola
Composed.
Composed.
Posts: 4636
Joined: March 13, 2015

Post Post #3496 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:55 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

If I have to go into that good night today, I want to leave my legacy for tomorrow's lylo to take into consideration. So have my high quantity, low quality, rapid (not so rapid actually, I've worked on this post all day on and off) thoughts-dump and Keyser, Irre, I'd like it if you take a peek when you have time/when you think it's relevant. Relephant. I made that joke before, sorry.

And just to make sure that we're not missing anything:
@Mod, I understand if you won't comment on any hypothetical scenarios on hypothetical roles, but if a BP was shot, would you inform them that they were shot and lost their BP?


I believe in the collective strength of Keyser and Irrelephant to have this game in the bag. Other than this post I probably won't be doing any retrospective readings, but I'll still be as active as I can.

I think that we generally need to operate under a different scumhunting framework, because I really think that all the potential last scum candidates have some really strong townpoints in favor of each of them. So I feel like I need to be shifting from "what is the TOWNIEST thing" and giving that the most weight to "what is the LEAST FAKE-ABLY TOWN THING" and giving that the most weight instead.

Table of Contents:
(clicking on a subcategory will take you there in the post, IDK if it works on phones)


i. BV/Mathdino

- Early game + Guilty claim
- Post-guilty
- Conclusion

ii. Gustavo/stungun

- Stungun
- D2 and D3
- Lategame and responses to your question, @Gustavo
- Conclusion

iii. Skitter

- D1 and D2 (I read it and she's just town. She can't not be town. Conclusion: Town.)

iv. the worst and Mom

- Mom's ISO
- the worst's ISO
- The FAKE GUILTY
- Conclusion



BlackVoid:


In post 2245, BlackVoid wrote:the worst
Errantparabola
Irrelephant11
Momrangal
BV opens with a trajectory against both of the flipped scum. Something to take into account.
Personally, it felt like BV's reads solidified pretty fast, and pretty strongly (saying things like "I don't think that so-and-so is ever going to flip scum here"). The whole "giving off the impression that they know X is going to flip town/scum" is a read I don't consider reliable. However I'll look for potential plausible bussing based on this foundation.
In post 2342, BlackVoid wrote:I'm no longer considering them to be partners. One could be scum but not both.
This was said about the Mom/worst pair wagons. Maybe it's plausibly scum, but I remember thinking the exact same thing. I'll keep this in mind.
In post 2517, BlackVoid wrote:You, TheWorst, and ErrantP are the ones I find scummiest. I wanted to cross-check interactions with Momrangal based on flip but I was sick during the night phase so that didn't pan out so I'm going to get to it tonight and tomorrow.
Over the course of the lynch and the Night Phase, BV went from confidently calling Mom/worst impossible to scumreading worst after a Mom flip. So under normal circumstances, I would consider scum to capitalize on that anti-association between Mom and worst that BV established and try to push it.

However, I do think that this is actually surprisingly plausible scum behavior in this case, because we know that at some point, worst and his scum partner came up with this fake-guilty plan. So hypothetically, if BV is scum with worst, he went in knowing that worst and himself were going to be in a 1v1. So it makes a whole lot of sense that he would go from "Mom/worst isn't a thing" to "worst is my scumread still."

However (again), we know that it's mod-confirmed that scum doesn't have fakeclaims (I think I read that). That means that BV had to say, "okay, so worst will fake a guilty on me, basically relying on that and a mediocre BP fakeclaim that I INTENTIONALLY made to give me the firepower to survive the rest of the game." It's a crazy plan which still doesn't seem plausible to me, because it banks on worst getting lynched immediately. Because say we lynched BV, flips scum, then worst just doesn't die for the rest of the game, then scum just lost. I don't see a rational scumteam banking on this crazy plan given that BV was honestly in a fine position if memory serves me correctly.

If anyone disagrees, please point me to the strongest argument that gives credence to the BV/worst theory.
In post 2652, BlackVoid wrote:What made me think TheWorst was scummier towards the end was his reaction to me saying he should claim. I proposed a way for us to use the last few days of D2 analyzing claims so we aren't scrambling at the last minute. His response of "you wish scumboy" really convinced me that he wasn't interested in being helpful. I was also at that point trying to figure out which of Momra/TheWorst were scum if only one of them were scum.
So BV alludes to his previous "it's only one of Mom/worst" theory but sort of diluting the strength of what he previously said. I think that's fine, but I don't know why worst get scummier by being unhelpful. I doubt the sincerity of this read a little bit.
In post 2783, BlackVoid wrote:3. Can you quote where exactly either Errant or TheWorst said that TheWorst had a result on me?
I'm quite conflicted on whether or not this is fake (which makes sense, because if it is, then he's scum, and if it isn't, then he's town). I want to lean towards that it isn't just because it feels like a really unnecessary and extraneous thing to fake if this is their plan. However, I will acknowledge that it seems a little glaring considering his own expectations for how closely people should be engaged with the thread (see, ironically: "You really should read the thread more closely" about three posts before that one)

I think that I outed the neighborhood a little confusingly and it's plausible that he genuinely misread it.


In post 3037, BlackVoid wrote:Scum are between {Nauci, Gustavo, Not_Mafia, errantparabola}. I kind of like this new development because I'm townreading errant and Gustavo. So, this pretty much leaves Nauci and Not_Mafia as the only potentially likely scum.

Initial instinct is that Nauci probably wouldn't fake-claim Neapolitan at this point. I'm not sure how much to believe this so I'll look through her posts again. But I feel pretty sure Not_Mafia has to be the final scum.
FOR the record, I think that this is a pretty scummy way to react to the Nauci claim. I think it's a little over-suspicious of what almost mechanically HAS to be a true claim and I don't know if "I kind of like this new development" is that sincere.
In post 3217, BlackVoid wrote:If errant/gustavo are scum, the only way town will win is if I can hold down my slot and prevent it from getting lynched. I won at least two towngames because I tried so, so hard to not get lynched and in of those game, ultimately the person deciding the game felt if I were scum putting in that much effort, I honestly deserved an award and voted the actual scum. That was in 3-way lylo.
Towny. This is getting into some pretty WIFOM territory but I think that last scum would shy away from acting so blatantly survivalistic because that's exactly what people would surface-level expect that last scum to want to be. And it's pretty consistent with his attitude throughout the game (see: BV getting accused of blocking himself with town on D...3?) and I think that overarching attitudes and playstyles are pretty hard to fake.
In post 3395, BlackVoid wrote:Two points. First off... [snip]

Secondly... [snip]
I think I might have subconsciously mentally absorbed Keyser's post because both points he brought up are things I also mentioned (although I didn't find either of them particularly scummy?). Other than that, the response that BV made doesn't actually make me feel anything either way.



I think that the major thing that makes me think that BV is town here, despite a lot of things making me think that he can be very plausibly scum, is that the plan that he and worst would have had to have come up with just doesn't make SENSE. BV comes across as a cautious, meticulous type. His play isn't particularly showy, and he's not pulling any unconventional or particularly risky things if he is scum here. He's just making his posts, talking about as many points as he can, and being proactive in the discussion. Just from this half-baked personality analysis ALONE, I really don't see him agreeing to a plan that has at least a 30% chance of instantly losing him the game. And I think even if BV was more risk-prone it just doesn't really convince me that this is a scum move between BV and worst. Again, if anyone disagrees I'd like to see the justification.

And one last thing, I went and reread the neighborhood. I did find it odd that worst felt set on investigating BV in particular. It felt like "well I planned out and softed that BV was going to be the target so that's what the plan has to be." I do think that this is a point of suspicion in regards to BV. Like, why particularly did it have to be BV that was the guilty target if BV was just another lynchable town in the pretty decently sized pool of random lynchable towns?

--------

Gustavo:



In post 138, stungun0404 wrote:so yes, i feel comfortable stating this townbloc. my townreads are much more accurate than my scum reads on d1, and can be trusted (over 95% success rate).

Keyser soze

shoshin
This guy, if he's scum, is making a statement that these two (now confirmed both town) should be eliminated from the lynchpool. If he's scum he's shooting himself in the foot. Which scum often do, but it seems implausible because it doesn't really benefit him that directly, other than the general "anything scum does, they do it for towncred" thing.
In post 426, stungun0404 wrote:hot take: scum is among bernie, nsg, nauci, momrangal, and the worst
Now, I'm not going to talk too much about the whole distancing point because that was never the reason I townread stungun (and I won't go to the length to read stungun's offsite meta) but I do think that he is oddly focused. Of course, there's a chance that he just nailed 2/3 in his lynchpool on D1 that early, that's possible and it happens all the time. In a pool of 5, that's not actually even incredibly impressive by random chance. But I do think that sudden burst of focus, followed up by backing off (focusing on bernie, skitter, irrelephant), is plausibly a non-commital distancing effort.
In post 828, stungun0404 wrote:PS(parting statement): KEYSER IS TOWN NO MATTER WHAT; my strongest TR has never EVER been wrong regardless of my own alignment. It has resulted in me replacing into a game on N1 and correctly neighbouring a town player AFTER A D1 scum lynch, and taking full advantage of it to eventually win a game for town in LYLO, so you can trust this read with your life. There’s a definite chance shoshin is scum, but regarding keyser DON’T FALL FOR THE SHIT OTHERS ARE FEEDING YOU RE: HIS READ. SOMEBODY IS ACTIVELY TRYING TO PLANT SEEDS OF DOUBT HIM, AND IT’S WORKING TOO!
Here is the main reason I've been townreading Gustavo for so long. This just seems like the towniest replace out ever. I know that some people don't like to read people based on this stuff but this really feels like it's bleeding town. He has a confident read. It feels genuine. He wants it to stick even when he leaves. He's appealing to his own credibility to eliminate a target from the lynchpool.


In post 2203, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2185, Gustavo wrote:Ill only vote you/skittle/elephant today.
Sorry I left off nauci.
In post 2269, Gustavo wrote:More reasons to dislike the mom wagon. I don’t even have a read on mom but like the reasons just suck
In post 2320, Gustavo wrote:Not that my opinions matter to anyone but my gut says mom flips town. The reasons are hella weak and the lack of a counter speaks volumes.
So heres the thing. Gustavo here, if hypothetical scum, is playing a game that I would probabilistically call more likely town than scum (it's plausibly either). I think most people here would be null-scum reading or flat out scumreading their partner if their partner is Mom. But Gustavo is consistently trying to redirect away from mom, both explicitly (by calling the wagon bad) and implicitly (by strongly focusing elsewhere). On paper this looks really scummy but in context I'm a lot more conflicted.
In post 2586, Gustavo wrote:I feel like Bernie is probably town. NM and TW are leaning town. that's about it
At first I thought that townreading TW was a pretty town thing to do, but I realized I was still stuck in the "BV is getting bussed by TW" mindset that I was entertaining. I think that townreading TW is pretty plausible reaction from a hypothetical Gustavo partner. Becuase if Gustavo is signing off on TW suicidally faking a guilty on BV, what's the best result that comes from that for scum? BV gets lynched, then TW gets lynched.
In post 2619, Gustavo wrote:given mom flipped scum, I am now considering tw could be scum.
This, in context, is a strongly town post.


In post 3296, Gustavo wrote:Logic says bv today. My heart/gut says it’s errant.
I think that the paranoia that Gustavo is giving off feels a little fake to me. Here's the thing: what would I EXPECT scum to do today? They need to make it so that someone else gets lynched today while simultaneously making it as doable as possible to get someone else lynched tomorrow as well. I think that this falls somewhat into that category.
In post 3297, Gustavo wrote:And I now immediately regret making this post now. I should have let errant post first.
I don't remember what I thought about this post but reading it again makes me get towny vibes.
In post 3333, Gustavo wrote:I don’t really think I need to put effort into today since it’s not mylo/lylo.
I think Gustavo is pushing this angle pretty hard, which makes me think on its face that it's scummy. However, he's actually putting in more effort than most other days. So. I don't know what to believe really
In post 3433, Gustavo wrote:@errant. Where are these obvious hints that he was hinting at a Pr? Why if you saw them was he not higher on your list?
I find it odd that you only talked about my un-nuanced reads list on that day rather than the more accurate (in my opinion) Readslist 2.0 a couple pages later. I think I alluded pretty hard to me being conflicted on worst because I thought that he was acting all around scummy but again, the PR thing. I believe I caught something on D1 (don't want to go back and check) of him saying that it was fine if people scumread him, he could go and towntell later. Then there was the "I think I got NK'd" that I mentioned. Overall he was being cavalier about people who scumread him.
In post 3458, Gustavo wrote:I’m not afraid to die. You clearly are
Why are you pushing the "I'm not afraid to die" angle so hard?



Gun to my head, and before I go and check out Skitter's ISO or Mom/worst ISOs, if I had to pick I'd pick Gustavo for last scum. I think there are a lot of things that point to strong town from Gustavo, in summary: the turn on TW on D3, the Stungun replaceout, towny behavior today (although I'm beginning to rethink that) but I think that all of those things have the possibility to be fake. I think that from an objective lens Gustavo is more towny than BV, if we went post by post and I pointed out all the things that I thought were town. But going with my gut and what I think the scumteam was thinking at the time BASED around the D3 play, I think Gustavo makes more sense as last scum.

--------

Skitter:



In post 376, skitter30 wrote:this isn't in any particular order:
townlean: bernie, stungun, probably keyser
scumlean: math, duckling, mom, gamma
A couple things regarding the distancing:
I haven't played with skitter before but multiple flipped town have said that this was way outside of Skitter's scumrange and I think that's a very credible way to read someone. Hopefully either Keyser or Irre could back this up if they've played with her before.

That being said, I have lost many a game due to writing off someone as town because they bussed multiple partners in the early game. I have seen many a game lost due to writing off someone as town because they bussed. I'm not saying that's what skitter did but reaffirming that skitter is almost 100% meta-cleared would be nice.
In post 430, skitter30 wrote:Btw I don't think duckling and mom are scum together
You and everyone else, apparently, wow. Think it's kind of funny that I've seen something to this effect in basically all three of the people. But just looking at skitter's iso, her progression on the worst seem quite genuine, and it's quite a sticky read.

Okay, yeah. I'm going to stop reading skitter's early game ISO. If she's scum then her early game was so focused around bussing one partner, then the other, then both, in trajectories that BOTH seem genuine, that it just seems so far out of the range of what ANY rational scum would do, not just skitter. Even the longest and most dedicated busses are single-target. This one isn't it, packing this one up.

---------

Scum associations:



In post 478, Momrangal wrote:HEY I SEE YOU.

talk to me about your pred. What do you think about the talk around him?
I'm using this post as a metric for how Mom is capable of interacting with a partner in a casual-seeming way and townreading a partner
In post 513, Momrangal wrote:Irrelephant11
Shoshin
stungun0404
Keyser Soze

Mathdino
Bernie

Nauci
the worst
northsidegal*
Invisibility

Gamma Emerald
skitter

That's where I stand. Moved invis with meta considered
Weirdly, Mom had worst pretty low despite consistently wanting people to townread him/townreading him herself.
Which means that Mom places some value on disproportionately undervaluing a townread that she fakes on a partner.
Which....... actually doesn't help me at all. Because she's townreading both Mathdino and stungun. :\

Other than that, not a lot of content I found of note. Moving on.

In post 296, the worst wrote:Stungun I've been struggling with in particular, do you see anything particularly town telling yet?
asdf i don't know.
In post 443, the worst wrote:If I'm correct:

Yes I can vouch for it
No I don't want to go into tells in great detail

but I strongly suspect Mr. Sanders is town
In post 458, the worst wrote:Oh yeah I read Shoshin as yikes level lynchbait and your push was scummy
My sense of reading worst is that he's the type of scum that likes to attack mislynch wagons on people he knows are town for some towncred (that's just my impression).
This has the potential to be pretty useful, I think.
In post 603, the worst wrote:
In post 601, Mathdino wrote:no hot meta
also what??
I love the rapdino shtick but please don't use it as an excuse not to pay attention
My gods, okay. This is actually a pretty scummy interaction from where I'm standing.
In post 1777, the worst wrote:yikes there's prolly 2 scum on my wagon

pushing a cw this hard makes me think Mom is probably the third
So what is worst's strategy here? He wants Mom to flip red and get him the towncred. The scum, as of this point, are playing intentionally around the fact that there are two leading wagons on scum right now.
In post 1923, the worst wrote:holy mother of busywoek

if the cop isn't on BVslot they should be embarrassed
At this point, worst knew that he was going to claim a guilty on BV. This was before the Mom flip, right after Mom started being active again. It doesn't make sense. Nothing makes sense. That being said I think that the worst is intentionally ignoring a lot of nuance in his BV read. What does that mean? I don't know. I don't knowwwww
In post 2162, the worst wrote:i was a conspicuous cw to mom here.
See my point before. In a vacuum I'd say that this makes BV scummier but how does this POSSIBLY gel with the BV guilty plan which seems like had already been set in stone?
Well, it kinda doesn't. So either the scum here are grasping at straws and playing without thinking all that much and I'm crazy overthinking it (I am) and/or BV is somewhat scummier from this.

In post 2702, the worst wrote:He should have let me gambit in style rather than killing my buzz.
At this point I'm really going into "tenuous conspiracy theories" territory here, but I'm noticing that the word gambit is... an interesting choice of diction here. Nothing about withholding a guilty for a couple of days to see reactions really says gambit to me? Just a fun thing that I didn't notice before, but it was an interesting potential weak-scumslip (or maybe I'm just wearing hindsight goggles)
In post 2849, the worst wrote:w/e BV owns a firearm
Is it just me that feels like there are a lot of moving parts in this claim? I find it a little hard to buy that worst and BV collectively decided that
1) worst has a guilty on BV
2) BV is going to fakeclaim a 1-shot BP role
3) worst isn't a cop or a tracker or anything, he's a GUNSMITH (???)

Like it just seems like a disjointed set of claims that reads more to me like "real thing that sort of clashes with fake thing" aka BV's real claim vs worst's weird fake claim rather than BV and worst going "okay! these are the things we're going to claim!"
Another point in favor of BV being town?
In post 2879, the worst wrote:even night gunsmith. I'm some bloke who hates war, I'll check later if you want
Another interesting observation for anyone doubting skitter-- skitter predicted that worst was going to be an even night something, I believe, far before he claimed. (At least, I think it was skitter.) Seems like a really unlikely and out-there thing to do if skitter is worst's partner.



ISOing almost ended up leaving me with more uncertainty than before but ultimately my feelings aren't really changed. I'd think Gustavo is the last scum, BV is a big pile of unknowns but a lot of things just really clearly point to him being town in spite of everything, skitter is town or my worldview in general just breaks down.

I got a lot less from scum associations than I thought I would which is a little disappointing.
Anyway, that's all I got. I'll just sheep Irre/Keyser, keep talking to anyone who wants to and about anything, and wish yall the best of luck. This post is directed to Irre, who asked me to express more detailed thoughts on Gustavo and BV. You're welcome. don't say i didn't do anything for you LMAO
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
provided
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6064
Joined: May 11, 2015

Post Post #3497 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:45 pm

Post by Keyser Söze »

Spoiler: Gustavo posts
In post 1783, Gustavo wrote:
In post 96, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Stungun
No reason for this. Stun had just voted nauci and given how hard nauci has been defending sho, I could easily see them scum together and this was a chainsaw vote. It makes sense sho didn’t want to explain it.
In post 191, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Nauci
This vote is weird. No reason for it and math just voted there.
In post 965, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Gustavo
Voted me because I was pressuring her. Basically omgus
In post 999, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Gustavo
Unvotes me after I proved she misrepped me (blatantly lied imo)
In post 1162, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Gamma
No reason....

So far this game is nothing like her town game she tried to say was similar to the one we played.
In post 1629, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Key
No reasons...
In post 1695, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Gustavo
Voted me because I voted the same person as she did.

What’s the difference? I gave reasons for my vote. She didn’t.

There is zero scum hunting in her votes. There is zero transparency, there is zero signs of teamwork.

I’m done discussing it anymore. She’s fucking scum or a really really terrible town player and her play this game is drastically different than the town game I played with her.

VOTE: shos

Peace out.
In post 1836, Gustavo wrote:
In post 1834, Errantparabola wrote:Either i’m very out of touch or youre greatly exaggerating how often that sort of thing happens? If i caught stungun’s interaction i’d have probably called it scummy too

Almost every action in the game has a towny and scummy interpretation it just so happens that the TvS interpretation for that specific one happens to be a very plausible one
FTR stun never voted sho, so she’s definitely misrepping yet again.

Sho voted me twice, twice I make great posts and she backs off.

Shos is scum. You should vote her. Everyone should.
Nauci is good also. There is no crumb in her posts like she said.

They are probably a pair
In post 1840, Gustavo wrote:
In post 102, Nauci wrote:Serious vote though, VOTE: Gamma Emerald for 100% 4/4 fluff posting
Terrible. Not a good reason for a serious vote.
In post 675, Nauci wrote:VOTE: The Worst

I honestly couldn't decide where to throw my vote but then I read this

hey now you don't tell me what to do!

Also this only brings you to -2
1. Opportunistic as hell
2. Terrible reason to vote somebody
In post 704, Nauci wrote:VOTE: Irrelephant11

Serious vote.
Don’t have time to read the reasons but Irrelephant11 was already voting nauci.
In post 1411, Nauci wrote:VOTE: not_mafia
Policy lynch vote? Really?
In post 1468, Nauci wrote:I'll vote with 2 of my town reads while I wait VOTE: momrangal
Late day 1 this is not acceptable
In post 1638, Nauci wrote:Let's start with the fact that VOTE: Mathdino you jerk come in here and actually post the catch up you promised several times
Clearly math stopped playing this game. A better vote could have been placed.
In post 1768, Nauci wrote:Here seems decent while I still don't have time to catch up

VOTE: the worst
Yet another terrible vote.

Not a single protown vote all game imo


Again, I’m seeing unreasonable/bullish/stubborn
townie
, indications of confirmation bias (inc. linking two townies as a scum team).

Calling Nauci’s vote on TW as “opportunistic” and “terrible”... [feeling aggressive anti-distancing].
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6064
Joined: May 11, 2015

Post Post #3498 (ISO) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:46 pm

Post by Keyser Söze »

Will read Errant’s post in detail later.

Still reading Gustavo’s ISO (over 300 posts...)
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Keyser Söze
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 6064
Joined: May 11, 2015

Post Post #3499 (ISO) » Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:18 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Spoiler: more Gustavo posts
In post 2203, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2185, Gustavo wrote:Ill only vote you/skittle/elephant today.
Sorry I left off nauci.
In post 2269, Gustavo wrote:More reasons to dislike the mom wagon. I don’t even have a read on mom but like the reasons just suck
In post 2280, Gustavo wrote:I regret replacing into this game now. None of my scum reads are ever going to get lynched and my cases get ignored.
In post 2320, Gustavo wrote:UNVOTE:

This game is so bizarre. It’s day 2 and we’ve only had one real wagon. No real attempt at a counter wagon at all.

Not that my opinions matter to anyone but my gut says mom flips town. The reasons are hella weak and the lack of a counter speaks volumes.

@shos- if you are town I’m really sorry you had a bad game. @everyone else, I’m really sorry for the hardcore tunneling but I just can’t see town motivation in shos actions. This is the last time I type her name for the rest of my this game and probably my life so you won’t have to worry about any more posts from me about her. I’m just going to pretend she doesn’t exists.
In post 2331, Gustavo wrote:If I was a doctor who protected somebody and there wasn’t a Nk, I certainly would never vote them or worry that they voted the same person as me.

But hey I’m different I guess

- expresses scum reads and players he would vote (likely all townies, does not name Mom/TW)
- actively opposes the Mom wagon/reasons
- expresses potential town frustration
- rational bewilderment re: Shos’ vote
Locked

Return to “Completed Mini Theme Games”