Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[BlackVoid]

And I have looked over your posts. I’ve already said that. So you implying I haven’t isn’t accurate. Out of the 4 of us I know 1 is town. I see one who doesn’t look as bad as the other 2.

I honestly don’t think scum shot me. I honestly don’t think scum shot math either. Bv didn’t do much of value when replacing in and didn’t vote mom and only hammered the worst. That sticks out the most to me. That’s where my vote lies.

I’m voting who I think is scum. I lack the power of persuasion cause nobody ever listens to me.

given tw/mom/{one of ep/you/math}, it makes the most sense to me that tw decided to shoot math that night tbh given the possible options

So if you are town. You were combative when you didn’t need to be. You blatantly misrepped (lied) about your play last game (I proved this true), and you claimed doctor when you were under no threat of being lynched.

Yeah don’t worry if I’m wrong about you, I’ll never play with you again.

That said, I don’t think I’m wrong about you. It doesn’t matter though cause nobody is lynching you.

I will say that if you were town, there is no way scum would kill me so your story is definitely not believable.

You as town were more likely the person to be killed.

Why would scum kill me unless my reads were right. If they are right you are scum

this post is kinda interesting to me tho

your biggest scumread tells u they protected you the night before, the night there wasn't a kill. i kinda think that would prompt some sort of re-evaluation here, but you're using it as an oppurunity to double-down on the scumread, but back down because she isn't getting lynched, not really on play and def not after the claim

and your immediate reaction is that scum wouldn't have killed you so her story is fake which is just kinda ????

she can be telling the truth irregardless of targeting you irregardless of whether or not you had been targeted by scum too. like you not being the nk doesn't make *her* actions invalid. suboptimal, maybe you can argue, but i don't know why you're assuming she's lying or that her story is not believable.

@bv what do you think?

I actually read it as him saying that he wasn't a likely NK target (from Shoshin's and everyone else's POV), therefore Shoshin's claim and night action of protecting him is not believable.

But that just makes me wonder why he's so set on me. If he realizes he most likely wasn't the target anyways, that means my slot was and that should have given him pause.

[BlackVoid]

Especially as he knows now that Shoshin is town.

[skitter30]

what do you think of gustavo's defeatism today?

[Gustavo]

you literally say 'unless someone has info the worst is lying'

that to me sounds like you think the worst is lying unless we live in the special circumstance of someone having info. since there is no evidence of anyone having info i take that to mean you think tw is lying

i don't know how to get across my point better

Your point is a complete misrep of what actually happened. You can just admit you misrepped me and apologize.

[Gustavo]

But that just makes me wonder why he's so set on me.

Because after reviewing everyone’s posts, you look like the last scum.

[Gustavo]

If he realizes he most likely wasn't the target anyways, that means my slot was and that should have given him pause.

Except your slot doesn’t make since for a Nk either. Math was a useless player who rhymed.

[skitter30]

i didn't and i won't and i'm not going to be bullied into doing so

p-edit are you like completely ignoring the context ... ? (specifically of scum!tw and how town!math has a history of catching and power-lynching him)

[Gustavo]

specifically of scum!tw and how town!math has a history of catching and power-lynching him

I never saw any proof of that. I could have sworn I asked for it at some point and nobody provided anything but a single game.

[skitter30]

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[Errantparabola]

If town, What do you need to do today? They need to make it so that someone else gets lynched today while simultaneously making it as doable as possible to get someone else lynched tomorrow as well if they lynch wrong today.

It’s basically the same motivation as scum. I don’t need to be right today to win. If you are town, you don’t need to be right today to win. If BV is town he doesn’t need the be right today to win.

Yeah, I guess you're right? idk

BV/Mathdino

Why no Mathdino posts?

What are your thoughts about math scum reading mom more but joining gamma for little to no reasons?

What about bv attempting to shade me for the same thing except i hadn’t expressed a read on mom yet and I had reasons for gamma?

I read Mathdino's ISO and had nothing to talk about. I might take a look at the other things but... not anytime soon

Is it within Gustavo's scumrange to be playing like this right now?

[skitter30]

Is it within Gustavo's scumrange to be playing like this right now?

i have no idea but that's what i'm wondering right now.

he just feels ... so defeatist and not-survivalistic

but idk who else it could be

[Gustavo]

viewtopic.php?p=10255336#p10255336

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Fine 2 games. So it’s slightly possible.

[Gustavo]

i have no idea but that's what i'm wondering right now.

he just feels ... so defeatist and not-survivalistic

but idk who else it could be

From your POV if it’s not me it’s bv/errant.

[skitter30]

yeah but i townread them more than you, that's the thing

also i don't know if that's every time town!math and scum!tw played but that's a fair sampling of their recent games and if you read math's iso in both he basically catches tw and forces through lynches on him and is very good at making everyone else see his way

given the possible scumteams and the possible nks it makes a lot more sense to me that tw tried to kill math than like any of the other options

[Gustavo]

yeah but i townread them more than you, that's the thing

But why?

I mean if you really think it’s me, there isn’t anything else I can say or do. I’m fine with it.

[skitter30]

cuz i think ep's reaction to the neighborhood think/tw's guilty is super super town and bv is kinda out of his scumrange imo and i dont' see him involved in that guilty-plan thing because it was too messy almost to have come from him

[Gustavo]

Ok I get that

[BlackVoid]

what do you think of gustavo's defeatism today?

I'm not sure what to make of it. I was actually kind of worried over the last 24hrs that Errant is skating by allowing us both to argue. I really disliked that last post of his. It felt almost like he's posting because Irrelephant and others expect him to make some sort of contribution and not actually because he wanted to solve which of me and Gustavo were scum. He ends by claiming he'll sheep whichever ones the conf-town want to lynch.

I also don't townread Errant in general. A lot of his posts are unrelatable. Like his townread on Nauci for focusing on solving or something like that and having me low down in his list of reads despite agreeing with both my townreads and scumreads. I townread him for one reason only and that's that his interaction with TheWorst before that fake-guilty on me felt genuine. Even the neighborizer claim by itself is null. I've seen scum actually neighborize a partner before. (Although since it's one-shot and there's a roleblock unaccounted for, if he's scum, I'd say it's a fake-claim as opposed to him actually neighborizing a partner).

I'm going to analyze Errant in-depth after in an hour or so and talk about him. I'll have to weigh whether that interactions pre-guilty, and regarding neighborhood are a rock-solid enough reason to call him town that outweighs everything else. Gustavo is frustrating me and I'm not sure if I'm been conf-biasing.

As for the defeatism, I don't townread either player's defeatism. It's bad play from whoever is town and the scum is obviously doing it to get towncred. It's not like we'd be more likely to lynch someone if they ask to be lynched.

But yeah, if there's one thing from Errant we can hold onto and call him town for sure, that would help get over my misgivings.

[Gustavo]

It's bad play from whoever is town

why?

[BlackVoid]

Is it just me that feels like there are a lot of moving parts in this claim? I find it a little hard to buy that worst and BV collectively decided that
1) worst has a guilty on BV
2) BV is going to fakeclaim a 1-shot BP role
3) worst isn't a cop or a tracker or anything, he's a GUNSMITH (???)

Like it just seems like a disjointed set of claims that reads more to me like "real thing that sort of clashes with fake thing" aka BV's real claim vs worst's weird fake claim rather than BV and worst going "okay! these are the things we're going to claim!"
Another point in favor of BV being town?

Is it crazy that I'm actually considering BV here >____>

I think duck scum is very likely as bussing anyways but then on off chance my track on him messed with (unfortunately not negligable with TW publicly claimed as PR) it holds

I'm having a lot of trouble seeing this tbh irregardless of my read on bv

Like I sont get why tw busses bv here and not the other way around - I dont think even with the towncred of bussing a partner that tw makes it to endgame; and hes going to be suspected for not being dead in a couple of days

Like why do they do this out of the blue? I dont know if scum banks everything on this

Also bv-personality-wise this doesn't really feel like a plan he was involved in. It isnt ... neat enough. I don't know how to explain that better

this is basically what i meant by that btw

like it has too many pieces that fit together badly and like it's just so very ... messy

and i feel like if bv had been involved in a fake-claim plan it would have been a lot more planend out, and just wouldn't have had so many dangling parts that don't make sense really

like this just isn't how i see him going about this

Also, you originally made this point a few times before. He's just repeating what you said. Your basis was that you played with me and don't think I would make this play based on playstyle/personality. errant never played with me so I don't know where he's drawing this from. I got some FishytheFish vibes there.

[skitter30]

you mean the 'just writing me off as town and sheeping me' bit? i'm still low-key paranoid that's what you're doing but i think i'm mostly over that; at least i don't really want to lynch you today over it and i think i just want to call you town today despite paranoia. and neither of us are getting nk'd tonight presumably if the game doesn't end so i'll have another day to deal with that if i have to

i wish this game had more useful nka, but all the nk's besides the first were basically the obvious ones

i thought ep's not-survivalism today was kinda townie - i really feel like he doesn't care if he gets lynched or not

i also wish nsg had posted more. ep had done nothing ai imo until the neighborizering thing. him being scum means that the neighborhood thing was a complete lie and that he's the rb and that he and tw had planned this like going back to like sometime mid-day2 i think

maybe i should check some of his scumgames, if he has any recent ones

btw there's another stungun scumgame - the transformers game in the theme park queue - he hard scumread one of his partners and lightly townread the other

[Errantparabola]

Also, you originally made this point a few times before. He's just repeating what you said. Your basis was that you played with me and don't think I would make this play based on playstyle/personality. errant never played with me so I don't know where he's drawing this from. I got some FishytheFish vibes there.

asfdfdsjfds
MY point wasnt a meta thing

and no I'm not like going through skitter's ISO and paraphrasing what she said just to make it look like i'm doing something if thats w hat youre insinuating

I'm obviously not playing fucking defeatist if i'm spending 6 hours to generate as detailed of reads as possible and no one gives a fuck about them
i will anticipate your analysis

[skitter30]

idk i think you've been kinda town and i liked that post you made and the effort you went through to make it.

i mostly townread you tbh because while a lot of what you did, especially early game, weren't super ai but i think the neighborizer thing and your attitude today in general have been super super town

(his point was more like - some scum will try to find someone that is being widely townread and mimic some of their points in order to have some sort of analysis that they think will be accepted by the game and that the townread player will like and possibly townread them for)

i've gotten some of my motivation back so i do think i want to confirm/check my read on you by looking at scumgames but i don't really think ur scum here honestly

[BlackVoid]

Posts relating to the neighborizing/guilty outing.

2655 - I like the "maybe you'll find out" part. It seemed genuine - like something TheWorst would actually say in a neighborhood PT given his coy behavior in thread. And it's a tangential detail that I don't think Errant would make up?
2658 - Can you actually point to evidence that you're friends? You only played a couple of games together.
2742 - I think this is a townie response to Rask's accusation. I think mafia would refute it more seriously if Rask was actually on point as opposed to laughing about what an absurd theory it was.
2754 - I think this is a towntell because scum would want to be more abrasive towards their partners in a distancing effort. I think this actually fits errant's non-confrontational personality more. His response here is consistent with how he continued apologizing to me after a misunderstanding.
2926 - This is the strongest towntell that I referred to earlier. Rask gave both of them an out by asking Errant if he was claiming TheWorst's result for him. Errant immediately confirms that it's not and revotes TheWorst. The "panic" that he was referring to earlier also feels genuine. That it all happened in a minute is another reason.
2983 - This is not a huge towntell since TheWorst was doomed anyways but he didn't need to dissuade Nauci and Rask from their theories about how I'd be a better lynch than TheWorst. He could have voted TheWorst for the cred and let them lead themselves wherever they will. I had liked this post when he made it too.
3048 - I also kinda like this post. I think he'd want to score the more difficult lynch in me before I have a chance to convince everyone I'm town. NM will always be an easy lynch no matter what.

So, overall I feel pretty good. This rejuvenated my townread on errantp. I did have some misgivings about how stubborn Gustavo was being but it's a personality trait that he can replicate as scum and Stungun's associatives really, really fit with what I think he'd do as scum and his philosophy and obsession with distancing match his play here and make more sense than the worldview that he's town with the reads he had.

I'll give a quick look at Stungun's other scumgame to double check before I vote but I'm feeling much more comfortable a Gustavo lynch will end it.

[BlackVoid]

In Transformers, Stungun was mafia with Porkens, rb, and Vecna. He had rb as a townlean, Porkens as scum and even questioned townreads on Porkens. Didn't interact with Vecna other than voting him for lurking. I didn't find anything that rules him out there. The whole "finding townreads + POEing" thing that I felt was town before is also fake-able. I didn't see anything similar to his Gemini interaction but I think it's well within scumrange. As for his mafia PT posts, I feel like his philosophy of "

i think you should townread some players too, so it looks like you are actively trying to be pro-town!

" fits why he had some of those early townreads because I just can't follow why he had those townreads. The read on Keyser is one example and he townreads him for something easily fake-able. That and Gustavo pushing against a Momrangal lynch early on, and the vote on Gamma all point to him.

VOTE: Gustavo