Open 733: Grey Flag (Complete)

[the worst]

Vote counts seem to be alphabetical so I'll need to actually shit down and do this at some point

[Ircher]

Day 1 Post 27

ceejayvinoya (4): Ircher (9), Not_Mafia (17), ofrhz (24), the worst (25),
Ircher (1): ceejayvinoya (11),
Not_Mafia (1):

Quick

(14),
ofrhz (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (26),
Not voting (2): Brandi,

Saudade

Day 1 Post 59

ceejayvinoya (4): Ircher (9), ofrhz (24), the worst (25), Not_Mafia (31),
Not_Mafia (1):

Quick

(14),
ofrhz (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (26),

Saudade

(1): ceejayvinoya (33),

Quick

(1): Brandi (52),
Not voting (1):

Saudade

,

Day 1 Post 100

Saudade

(3): ceejayvinoya (33), ofrhz (81), the worst (83),

Quick

(3): Brandi (52),

Saudade

(92), Ircher (93),
Not_Mafia (2):

Quick

(14), Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (31),
Not voting (0):

Day 1 Post 232

Gosrir Elmer Odels (3): the worst (130), ofrhz (131), ceejayvinoya (173),
Not_Mafia (2):

Quick

(14), Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),

Quick

(2):

Saudade

(92), Ircher (93),

Saudade

(1): Not_Mafia (231),
Not voting (1): Brandi (152),

Day 1 Post 250

Quick

(2):

Saudade

(92), Ircher (93),

Saudade

(2): Not_Mafia (231), ofrhz (233),
Gosrir Elmer Odels (2): ceejayvinoya (173), the worst (237),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),
Ircher (1):

Quick

(239),
Not voting (1):

Day 1 Post 312 (LYNCH)

Suadade (5): Not_Mafia (231), ofrhz (233), Skygazer (257), Ircher (287), the worst (289),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),
Gosrir Elmer Odels (1): ceejayvinoya (173),
Ircher (1):

Quick

(239),
Not voting (1):

Saudade

,

Day 2 Post 334

Gosrir Elmer Odels (3): Not_Mafia (319), ofrhz (321), the worst (322),
the worst (1):

Quick

(330),
Not voting (4): Gosrir Elmer Odels, ceejayvinoya, Skygazer, Ircher,

Day 2 Post 425

Gosrir Elmer Odels (2): ofrhz (321), the worst (322),

Quick

(2): ceejayvinoya (345), Ircher (356),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (377),
ofrhz (1):

Quick

(389),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (423),
Not voting (1): Skygazer,

Day 2 Post 462 (LYNCH)

Quick

(5): ceejayvinoya (345), Ircher (356), ofrhz (429), Skygazer (441), the worst (444),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (377),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (423),
CJ (1):

Quick

(427),
Not voting (0):

[Ircher]

Vote counts seem to be alphabetical so I'll need to actually shit down and do this at some point

???

[the worst]

sit**
v_v

do you see anything interesting there?

[Ircher]

@Gosrir who's scum? your case on this page is really bad and we don't have any mislynches here.

He said the worst and Loafers (whoever that may be). He also said I'm likely town.

[the worst]

there's 3 scum. Loafers is ofrhz btw

I guess I want a reads list

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Votecounts for #1

Day 1 Post 27

ceejayvinoya (4): Ircher (9), Not_Mafia (17), ofrhz (24), the worst (25),
Ircher (1): ceejayvinoya (11),
Not_Mafia (1):

Quick

(14),
ofrhz (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (26),
Not voting (2): Brandi,

Saudade

Day 1 Post 59

ceejayvinoya (4): Ircher (9), ofrhz (24), the worst (25), Not_Mafia (31),
Not_Mafia (1):

Quick

(14),
ofrhz (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (26),

Saudade

(1): ceejayvinoya (33),

Quick

(1): Brandi (52),
Not voting (1):

Saudade

,

I think the most noticeable thing here is the fact that no one has flipped green on the Ceejayvinoya wagon. With 2 green flips, we have 4 town and 3 scum left. With 4 people on the Ceejay wagon, there is a pretty high chance at least one of them is scum. (Though, an all-town wagon there on scum is possible is possible as well. Actually, I think I would lean towards Ceejay being scum here and the wagon being all town because like ofrhz is the only one whom I am semi-questioning my townread on, and I trust everyone else on the wagon.

Spoiler: Votecounts for #2

Day 1 Post 100

Saudade

(3): ceejayvinoya (33), ofrhz (81), the worst (83),

Quick

(3): Brandi (52),

Saudade

(92), Ircher (93),
Not_Mafia (2):

Quick

(14), Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (31),
Not voting (0):

Day 1 Post 232

Gosrir Elmer Odels (3): the worst (130), ofrhz (131), ceejayvinoya (173),
Not_Mafia (2):

Quick

(14), Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),

Quick

(2):

Saudade

(92), Ircher (93),

Saudade

(1): Not_Mafia (231),
Not voting (1): Brandi (152),

Okay, this is pretty interesting. Within the span of 132 posts (which is admittedly a good number), the entire Suadade wagon decides to switch to voting Gosrir. Again, I think Ceejay is probably the scum here.

Spoiler: Votecounts for #3

Day 1 Post 312 (LYNCH)

Suadade (5): Not_Mafia (231), ofrhz (233), Skygazer (257), Ircher (287), the worst (289),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (87),
Gosrir Elmer Odels (1): ceejayvinoya (173),
Ircher (1):

Quick

(239),
Not voting (1):

Saudade

,

Tbqh, the hammer on Suadade here looks sketchy as can be. It makes me reconsider my townread on the worst (but I'm still going with town here). It is also worth noting here that Gosrir has a useless vote at this point. (I mean, voting Not_Mafia? Obviously, that isn't going anywhere.)

Spoiler: Votecounts for #4

Day 2 Post 334

Gosrir Elmer Odels (3): Not_Mafia (319), ofrhz (321), the worst (322),
the worst (1):

Quick

(330),
Not voting (4): Gosrir Elmer Odels, ceejayvinoya, Skygazer, Ircher,

Day 2 Post 425

Gosrir Elmer Odels (2): ofrhz (321), the worst (322),

Quick

(2): ceejayvinoya (345), Ircher (356),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (377),
ofrhz (1):

Quick

(389),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (423),
Not voting (1): Skygazer,

Day 2 Post 462 (LYNCH)

Quick

(5): ceejayvinoya (345), Ircher (356), ofrhz (429), Skygazer (441), the worst (444),
Not_Mafia (1): Gosrir Elmer Odels (377),
ceejayvinoya (1): Not_Mafia (423),
CJ (1):

Quick

(427),
Not voting (0):

I think the most interesting thing here is how the game basically stalls out on Gosrir all of day 2 until Quick suddenly gets practically QLynched right at the end of the day. Again, the duckling's qhammer vote here makes me suspicious, but honestly, Skygazer was the one who suggested quickhammering. The duckling may be scum here, but I think this sudden wagon change here at the end of day 2 points more to Skygazer being scum that wanted to get a free mislynch in (while the chance presented itself.)

Obviously, I'm wrong on someone because I only have 2 scumreads (Skygazer and Ceejay) right now but there are still 3 scum.

[the worst]

if I'm scum who the hell do you think my partners are?

[Ircher]

there's 3 scum. Loafers is ofrhz btw

I guess I want a reads list

I would like the same from you.

[the worst]

You first I insist

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Not_Mafia (+65%) - Regardless of what he has done since day 1, I feel like without a doubt, this slot is town. His day 1 early posts really did not feel like scum!Not_Mafia.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Ofrhz (+40%) - I think this slot is town mostly based on PoE. In particular, I found nothing really suspicious here in terms of VCA nor did I really see anything wrong with their posts this game.

Gosrir Elmer Odels (+34%) - I stand by what I said earlier about this slot. Also, the more I think about it, the more I'm starting to get the impression that this is a slot that scum is trying to take advantage of. Sure, the wagon stalled, and that could indicate scum not bussing the Gosrir, but is that truly the case? Like the main proponent of the Gosrir wagon is the worst, but he has in all honestly not done much to push the case here. In fact, he seems to talk more about Quick day 2 than he does Gosrir...

the worst (+31%) - I really do wonder if this is scum that simply quickhammered TWICE this game; it is definitely suspicious. I am still leaning town here overall based on the worst's other posts, but honestly, the VCA is really making me super suspicious here.

Ceejaynova (-55%) - Going off the votecounts and my analysis of them, I think the evidence points towards this slot being scum.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Skygazer (-61%) - This boils down mostly to PoE. First, they haven't really done much this game. Second, the one major thing they have down (push for the quickhammer on Quick) looks really bad.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

Your turn.

[the worst]

the fuck is that reads list? I actually thought you were town here. give me a minute.

[Not_Mafia]

Told you Quick was town

VOTE: The Worst

[the worst]

{TW}
{ofrhz}
{NM}
{cjv, skygazer} (null)
{Ircher, Gosrir}

[the worst]

NM settle down we're both town. If I'm scum who am I scum with?

[Ircher]

Skygazer and Ceejaynova.

[Not_Mafia]

Wait why was there no night phase after the day 1 lynch

[Not_Mafia]

Oh they were town

I'm a fucking idiot

[Not_Mafia]

Saudade has been lynched.

Spoiler:

You are a

murderer

.

RETRY? (Y/N)

I thought this was a scum flip

[the worst]

dude unvote

[the worst]

omg lmao

[Not_Mafia]

UNVOTE:

[the worst]

after yessirree's pypx/y I'm never trusting a 3p quickhammer not to happen again

[Ircher]

Ikr? That was horrible.....

[Skygazer]

fck we almost organized that quickhammer