Secret Hitler (Game Over)

[Ausuka]

@mod: Is the thread locked between the passing of Fascist #4/#5 and the execution?

No.

[BuJaber]

Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

1. Not sure, more likely fascist than not by PoE. (Assuming Reck, NM, mitilos, and now nsg are liberal; and Inspi + SS + mallow (now that we tested NM) are fascist)

2. Too risky to let you go. If you are fascist you could pass 2 Fascist policies to your chancellor and you will able to shoot a liberal. The fact that you would out yourself by doing so is not worth the downside of losing a policy and a liberal. So no.

3. Inspi

[xRECKONERx]

i honestly cant even remember what has happened nor do i have the energy to recall but i think i was null on your slot

[Mitillos]

Actually, since I have fascist reads on both 2.718 and Nico Robin and they come before and after me respectively, I am strongly in support of my presidency. If I were not, I would be in favour of three neins in a row, which would cause a random policy to be passed. If we believe nsg, there are 6 fascist and 3 liberal cards in the deck, at the moment. So, at best, the probability of a random fascist policy being passed is 2/3. If this happened, it would both further the fascist wincon and eliminate one of our only two execution powers. And even if we got a random liberal policy, that could still turn out to be bad, if the remaining liberal policies happened to be at the end. In that case, the next two policies would be fascist, no matter what we did.

@2.718: To answer your questions: As far as I can tell, the fascist team is S_S, one of {BuJ, inspi} (probably inspi), and two of {mallow, you, Nico Robin} (with mallow being by far more likely than the other two). So, from my POV either you or Nico is likely the last fascist, and since I've got enough other people to vote for at the moment, I'd rather not take the risk on either of you, so there is nobody you can nominate that would make me vote ja for you. As for why I have a fascist read on Vij/you, it was mainly the following posts:
- 125 (False claim about inspi pushing an anti-town policy using maths, when all inspi had done was state the probability of 3 fascist cards turning up on the first draw, which is null. Sure, inspi is probably fascist after all, but fake reasons are fake reasons.)
- 126 (Contradictory positions that i) reads are useless, but ii) we should somehow have someone who looks like they're in the middle and ja them.)
- 363 (Attacking Reck for being chancellor in two governments that passed a fascist policy, but having absolutely nothing to say about the presidents who were with Reck, even though they'd have to be implicated as well, had Reck lied.)

Regarding executions, as I mentioned before, I believe that Hitler is either you or Nico, given what S_S has said. As such, I would say that those are the best execution targets. I doubt S_S is Hitler, given his investigation on me and subsequent claim, so I don't think an execution should be wasted on him. Beyond that, if I were given an execution I would look at what the rest of the players think, as well as what reasons they have, before pulling the trigger. I'd be open to being convinced to shoot someone other than the two of you, but only through clear and valid arguments, explaining why someone else is more likely to be Hitler.

[2 718281828459]

I only have 3 confirmed neins and I want to see what some of the other six players think (Not_Mafia, inspi, Something_Smart, mallow, northsidegal, and NicoRobin).
I will then decide if I want to try to be in a government (picking Mitillos, probably) or just pick the worst possible person and hope that a fascist accidentally votes ja and self-outs...

[2 718281828459]

Spoiler: visual table

Liberal board		L	L	L	...	LIBERAL GOAL
Failed Votes			{..}	{..}	{Draw}
Fascist board	F	F	F	Execution	Execution	FASCIST GOAL

[Something_Smart]

let mitilos be president.

Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.

Except that you could be lying and Mitillos could actually be liberal.

So? A lot of things could be true. It doesn't mean that it benefits town to argue over them.

[2 718281828459]

Well, we

have

to either
(1) let me be president, or
(2) let Mitillos be president, or
(3) let NicoRobin be president, or
(4) draw a random policy.

I think the consensus is to trust Mitillos but I am not sure why and from the looks of things I am supposed to not trust NicoRobin.

Something_Smart, did you answer my three questions?

1. Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
2. Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
3. Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

[Something_Smart]

1. No opinion, because we have no information on you.
2. Possibly Reck or Nico. Definitely not anyone else.
3. That depends a great deal on how and by whom the next fascist policy is passed, but right now I'd say Mitillos.

[2 718281828459]

I replaced Vijarada. What is your opinion on him?

[BuJaber]

1. No opinion, because we have no information on you.
2. Possibly Reck or Nico. Definitely not anyone else.
3. That depends a great deal on how and by whom the next fascist policy is passed, but right now I'd say Mitillos.

Lol why on earth would we ever accept Nico? They haven't been on any elections. It's literally roullette at that point.

[2 718281828459]

If it is really true that two of {me, Nico, mallow} are fascist, then why would Something_Smart ja a gov with me and Nico? One of SS and Mitillos must be fascist.

[2 718281828459]

Wait, I

know

that one of SS+Mit is fasc due to the inv result. But either way, I want to ask this to Something_Smart:

From your perspective, who do you think the fascists are?

(I am not sure how much of Mitillos' fasc list to trust and I want the alternative viewpoint on this situation.)

[Something_Smart]

Mitillos, BuJaber, mallowgeno, no idea about the fourth.

[Something_Smart]

Lol why on earth would we ever accept Nico? They haven't been on any elections. It's literally roullette at that point.

Yet you voted ja on northsidegal as president...

[BuJaber]

I asked her to vote for NM and she did.

You on the other hand want us to potentially ja an untested president and an untested chancellor at the same time.

[Something_Smart]

You can vote however you want. I only stated how I might vote.

[inspiratieloos]

I read the whole thing, but it is always difficult to get your bearings after 19 pages. So here is my questionnaire for everyone to answer:

1. Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
2. Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
3. Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

I ask the third question because I am not sure if the mod locks the thread or not when the president decides who to execute. If the thread is locked, then we should clear that up well in advance so that liberals know who they can shoot and fascists cannot fake "But I didn't know who to shoot!"

@mod: Is the thread locked between the passing of Fascist #4/#5 and the execution?

1. I think it's most likely that one of you and NicoRobin is a Liberal and the other is Hitler, though there are other possibilities. I think that out of the previous presidents BuJaber and mallow sabotaged, that would make SS and NM Liberals and Reck either unlucky or Hitler, Liberal SS means Fascist Mitillos. nsg seems Liberal after the last election, which leaves you and NR as the final two unknowns, Vijar and NR have both been in the background while the other Fascists have been much more active, which makes me inclined to think one of you is Hitler.
2. I'd vote Ja on myself or SS. Probably Reck too if I had to. My other Lib reads (NM and nsg) are unavailable this election.
3. I'd prefer for you to shoot NR or pres!NR to shoot you for a chance at executing Hitler. Otherwise BuJaber to take out a Fascist vote.

[BuJaber]

Don't let them distract you.

This is the winning game plan:
A minimum lib-bloc of 6 players must continuously vote yes for 4-5 people from this lib bloc. We cannot afford to lose a lib vote. We cannot afford to test someone outside the bloc.

This is the playerlist and order of presidents:

Playerlist

1. xReckonerx

2. Not_Mafia

3. BuJaber

4. inspiratieloos

5. Something_Smart

6. mallowgeno

7. northsidegal

8. 2 718281828459 (50-50)

9. Mitillos

10. NicoRobin (50-50)

We can't skip 3 times in a row. So the problem area is 4,5,6. We need to finish the game before that stage.

We need 2 wins only thankfully.
Skip 2.7, mitillos chooses either reck or me.
Skip Nico, Reck chooses either whichever of those 2 mitilos didn't choose, nsg, or NM.
NM chooses whichever one of those that reck didn't choose or the person mitillos chose as they become available again.

If we get unlucky twice we still have my turn to finish it off. At the very least we protect the lib bloc from getting shot by a fascist.

But this plan requires the liberal between 2.7/nico to vote with us. Because 5-5 split in votes is a no go.

[2 718281828459]

What if you are lying? Here is what I could gather from the combined perspective of Something_Smart and myself.
This is the playerlist and order of presidents from that perspective:

1. xRECKONERx
2. Not_Mafia

3. BuJaber

4. inspiratieloos

5. Something_Smart

6. mallowgeno

7. northsidegal

8. 2 718281828459

9. Mitillos

10. NicoRobin

One of the whites would be the last fascist.

[xRECKONERx]

can someone explain why numbers and ss are tied together

[2 718281828459]

I am just hypothesizing what the field would be like if Something_Smart were liberal and BuJaber and Mitillos were fascist.
It's like when you are solving a Sudoku, and you are stuck, and you make a guess on some important square, and either get to a contradiction or the answer. The consensus of people that post indicates that Mitillos and BuJaber are right, but I want to explore the alternative option since remember,

I just got here

.

[Mitillos]

@Reck: Do you mean why 2.718 is taking a combined perspective with S_S, or why e.g. I think that S_S's actions indicate that 2.718 is potentially Hitler? I can only answer the latter, if that's what you want.

@2.718: You aren't supposed to trust my fascist list. You are supposed to evaluate it, based on reading the game. For instance, I know that S_S is fascist whereas you don't, but can deduce it from his words and actions (e.g. claiming an exclusion list then voting nein for a government of two people not on said list, despite having said nothing about mistrusting either of them).

Edit: Oh. Good, good, carry on.

[BuJaber]

I am just hypothesizing what the field would be like if Something_Smart were liberal and BuJaber and Mitillos were fascist.
It's like when you are solving a Sudoku, and you are stuck, and you make a guess on some important square, and either get to a contradiction or the answer. The consensus of people that post indicates that Mitillos and BuJaber are right, but I want to explore the alternative option since remember,

I just got here

.

I should not be tied with SS in your mind.

I investigated Inspi and know he's fascist. You either believe me or not.

I am making an assumption that SS lied about mitillos because mitilos has been more consistently pro-town with his voting. SS is also seemingly on par with Inspi and that's pro-fascist.

Now he might be deluded liberal, but then he hasn't made it clear what makes Inspi liberal in his eyes. He seemingly chose a side without evidence.

[BuJaber]

Also considering NM proved himself town more or less that leaves mallow, SS, and reck as the pool of presidents who threw a liberal away and lied. Reck is my top townread. Leaving the other two pretty much conf scum