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Post Post #1375  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:27 am

In post 1372, vulcan logician wrote:
In post 1370, Music wrote:
In post 1368, vulcan logician wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya


If you do indeed believe Ausuka is scum, I don't understand why you wouldn't vote them at this point? We have not decided on an immediate Ceejay/Cardi lynch pool yet.


I said I was 70% sure that leaves some percents that I am wrong about Ausuka. We have time, and our margin for error is quite large. Weeding Ceej out seems a more practical course of action at this point.


I don't want to seem aggressive here, but 70% is an incredible number for a scum reading. If I was 70% sure of someone being scum, I'd very likely push them hard and wouldn't settle for a ~10% read.

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Post Post #1376  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:27 am

In post 1374, Ausuka wrote:was as good of an alt name as any


It was indeed, my alternate's name is relatively basic in comparison.

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Post Post #1377  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:35 am

Well. I guess my scumread of you might be interpreted as some wild gambit by you and Sky, but it isn't. It's just as I said... concerns that came to mind as I was rereading the thread. I think the stuff I reposted deserves a little scrutiny now that we have the benefit of hindsight.

The reason I felt the need to express those thoughts is that if you ARE scum, you are in a position to win... although it would take lots of luck and Disney magic to get you from here to victory. If somebody else is scum, town will have a much easier time catching onto them by LYLO. So I didn't want you to pass so easily under our noses, y'know?

#staywoke

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Post Post #1378  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:40 am

In post 1375, Music wrote:
In post 1372, vulcan logician wrote:
In post 1370, Music wrote:
In post 1368, vulcan logician wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya


If you do indeed believe Ausuka is scum, I don't understand why you wouldn't vote them at this point? We have not decided on an immediate Ceejay/Cardi lynch pool yet.


I said I was 70% sure that leaves some percents that I am wrong about Ausuka. We have time, and our margin for error is quite large. Weeding Ceej out seems a more practical course of action at this point.


I don't want to seem aggressive here, but 70% is an incredible number for a scum reading. If I was 70% sure of someone being scum, I'd very likely push them hard and wouldn't settle for a ~10% read.


Good point. But as I said before. We have time. And I'm patient. Besides, I'm taking other things into account that I wasn't when I expressed my thoughts about Ausuka. Read the last couple pages. You might see what I mean.

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Post Post #1379  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:31 pm

In post 1331, Enigma wrote:
In post 1326, skitter30 wrote:yep; you're conftown mechanically if you neighborize someone the same night scum kills, as will be anyone else who has a confirmable result

i think we're pretty close to the place where we can solve tis mechanically

(you're kinda obvtown independently of that; i'm talking from a mechanics perspective)
I do town read Sky, but just want to point out mechanically this is not guaranteed for Sky as we can't confirm her neighbourizer going through last night. That being said, if there are people who have confirmable night actions from last night (if there is anyone), they are confirmed town.


oh, i didn't mean that she was already conftown mechanically as of last night since oka died; i meant that if she were to neighborize someone on the same night that a kill happens in the future she would be; same if anyone does a confirmable action, either last night or any night that scum also kill

--

In post 1335, vulcan logician wrote:Meh. As has been pointed out, the remaining scum is demoted to goon status from lack of ability to use PR. So I don't think that would have factored into AP's motivations at all.

However, I do strongly feel that both scum were on my wagon at some point. Enigma is locktown, so that puts Ausuka, ceej and Cardi in my bottom brackets.


ausuka doesn't make like any sense to me as scum with ap - without her outing her pick we wouldn't have had the lynchpool of you/oka/me/ap yesterday; her claim is directly what prompted the hunt for the pgo. i ... just don't see her doing this as scum; it doesn't really fit her personality.

like if anything if ap/ausuka are scum together i can see him bussing her in some sort of gambit-thing that would enable him to coast but i don't really see him having her bus him - he also has a much better scumgame than her iirc (no offense ausuka :) ) and i don't think he would gambit on some sort of elaborate bussing thing and entrust like the entire game to her coasting for the next however many days; people would probably expect her to be nk'd at some point for outing him. like this doesn't make much sense to me at all

--

In post 1340, vulcan logician wrote:So, I'm doing some rereading of da thread... and I'm starting to think that Ausuka is the scum.


lololol no

--

In post 1342, vulcan logician wrote:Remember all this stuff from D1?


In post 1344, vulcan logician wrote:
In post 825, Ausuka wrote:yeah lynching AP tomorrow if this greens. the hammer is honestly worthy of a lynch regardless of anything else imo.


Then there's this from EOD on D1. In retrospect, it seems a bit manufactured. If she is scum, of course she knew Vizyy was gonna flip red, thus relieving her of following through on her threat to push AP.


all of these things are very circumstantial and just like not really important and like ... kinda reachy? like why does any of this outweigh the outing-the-pgo thing?

like i kinda feel like you went through her iso looking for things to nitpick

--

In post 1349, Cardi B wrote:Im vanilla.

I think skitter, skygazer, enigma are town mechanically or wheva.


i'm vt!

why am i town mechanically tho - to the best of my knowledge i haven't been cleared?

--

In post 1351, Ausuka wrote:there seems to be people thinking AP wouldn't bus as basically caught scum. I think you're just wrong. AP doesn't voluntarily tie himself to Vulcan like that.

We NEVER lynch music over Vulcan sorry. Like if there's one thing I'm going to insist it's that Vulcan doesn't live to LYLO.


why do you think he busses there? he was in a pool of people where we know that there was a scum pgo/vig and like, we wouldn't have stopped looking at that pool until the pgo/vig flipped - all that bussing does is buy him a couple of days but he'd still be fucked mechanically because we'd still be looking for him once his partner flipped not-pgo

i don't really know what he gains out of bussing there besides buying a few days. and like his vote on vulcan felt more like a 'here's a hip new counterwagon that i'm going to join to try to save myself' kinda vote than a bussing vote

wrt vulcan i'm conflicted because on associatives he doesn't really make a lot of sense with ap imo but like ... he's incredibly scummy independently and his push on you is icky

--

In post 1361, Cardi B wrote:
In post 1358, Ausuka wrote:If you were a cop you wouldn't volunteer to be lynched Cardi. Don't play these games please.

If Im finna be lynched then I'm claiming frreal. Cardi make money moves u know that. Uh even if she ain't really been on the shmoney that much this game.


sorry, i'm not following what you're trying to say. are you saying you're claiming cop for real or vt for real? or that in the evnet of you being lynched you will claim for real?

--

In post 1368, vulcan logician wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya


why are you voting cj here? like if you really think ausuka is scum why aren't you pushing that?

--

In post 1377, vulcan logician wrote:Well. I guess my scumread of you might be interpreted as some wild gambit by you and Sky, but it isn't. It's just as I said... concerns that came to mind as I was rereading the thread. I think the stuff I reposted deserves a little scrutiny now that we have the benefit of hindsight.

The reason I felt the need to express those thoughts is that if you ARE scum, you are in a position to win... although it would take lots of luck and Disney magic to get you from here to victory. If somebody else is scum, town will have a much easier time catching onto them by LYLO. So I didn't want you to pass so easily under our noses, y'know?

#staywoke


:igmeou:

a) after recieving pushback your scumread dropped from '70% certain' to 'some concerns that came to mind as I was rereading the thread'. this doesn't feel like something you really believe tbh given that you backed off when others questioned the read and instead decided to hop on the popular wagon

b) i feel like most of the evidence you're citing for scum!ausuka is very incidental and largely outweighed by the ap thing - does it even make sense for her to bus ap here? that's a key question that you're not really addressing. i kinda feel like you're trying to fan paranoia tbh

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Post Post #1380  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:30 pm

VOTE: Vulcan
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
Ceejay is a great person, but I think I always scum read him because his reads are so bad. ~brassherald

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Post Post #1381  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:38 pm

Number one lesson/analysis from this mass claim is .... GG town sucks at drafting :facepalm: Though, we doing pretty good without solid PRs.
Shall I claim or can we just start lynching? Why is there no doc, and why am I alive?

Why is vulcan acting so scummy, despite game state suggesting he shouldn't be scum :igmeou:

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Post Post #1382  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:41 pm

In post 1352, Cardi B wrote:If I'm lyin and I'm secretly a cop or sommn I have an inno on Vulcan.

And wtf is this?

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Post Post #1383  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:59 pm

In post 1381, Enigma wrote:Why is vulcan acting so scummy

Asked and answered!
In post 1381, Enigma wrote:GG town sucks


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Is that a full claim list done?

I had some thoughts on order of the failed picks, but I need coffee first, and I'm not entirely sure still.

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Post Post #1384  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:03 pm

VOTE COUNT 3.2


Sando (0) ~
skitter30 (0) ~
Cardi B (0) ~
Music (0) ~
Ausuka (0) ~
Skygazer (0) ~
vulcan logician (2) ~ Ausuka, ceejayvinoya,
ceejayvinoya (2) ~ Cardi B, vulcan logician,
ofrhz (0) ~
Enigma (0) ~

NOT VOTING: Sando, skitter30, Music, Skygazer, ofrhz, Enigma

with 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

day three will end in (expired on 2018-08-12 18:00:00)


mod notes:
- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack
"I have been grappling with whether giving you a duck is derivative
Or if not giving you a duck is a faux pas
This has been a conundrum"
- Ether (re. choosing my avatar)

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Post Post #1385  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 10:04 pm

In post 1348, Skygazer wrote:
In post 1321, Skygazer wrote:I have designated myself the organizer of claims!

ruru - Jailkeeper (so no tracker)
Sky - Neighbourizer (so no fruit vendor)
Oka - Vengeful (so no N3 vig)
Vulcan - VT (attempted ???)
Invis - VT (attempted ???)
AP - PGO (so no 1-shot vig)
skitter - VT
Ausuka - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)
Cardi - VT
Enigma - cop/1-shot watcher?
music - VT (attempted ???)
Sando - VT (attempted ???)
CJ - VT (attempted vengeful)
ofrhz - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)


I think this is right. I don't think it matters the order we claim what we tried to get, scum are just going to claim something in the top 3 anyway.

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Post Post #1386  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:12 pm

If someone attempted to nab doctor though and didn't... We can lynch from VTs down
watch out she quacks

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Post Post #1387  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:13 pm

*didnt get it
watch out she quacks

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Post Post #1388  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 01, 2018 11:18 pm

In post 1386, Skygazer wrote:If someone attempted to nab doctor though and didn't... We can lynch from VTs down

Yeah that's true, just don't see the need to wait until that happens to start the claims, if it happens, great, if not, we can still get on with it.

I'm off to gym, I'll post my pick in a few hours.

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Post Post #1389  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:20 am

I tried to pick Vengeful.

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Post Post #1390  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:23 am

In post 1367, vulcan logician wrote:I'm not down for lynching Cardi at all! And (at this point) I'm no longer as willing to be lynched as I was before. Since my thoughts on Ausuka seem to be ill received, I say we lynch Ceej and if he flips green, we wait scum out. I think that (given our advantage) town can power through and snatch a win.

Feel like scum would be scurd of saying "I aint wanna be lynched no mo" after they get 2 the point where they lose if they lynched. And I think I see why that change as town.

In post 1379, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1349, Cardi B wrote:Im vanilla.

I think skitter, skygazer, enigma are town mechanically or wheva.


i'm vt!

why am i town mechanically tho - to the best of my knowledge i haven't been cleared?

I didnt say conftown I said reglar town. Yall been a big part of both scum lynches. AP was Enigmas fault mosly but u supported it before what he said. U also been town by play etc. Same for thother 2.

In post 1379, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1361, Cardi B wrote:
In post 1358, Ausuka wrote:If you were a cop you wouldn't volunteer to be lynched Cardi. Don't play these games please.

If Im finna be lynched then I'm claiming frreal. Cardi make money moves u know that. Uh even if she ain't really been on the shmoney that much this game.


sorry, i'm not following what you're trying to say. are you saying you're claiming cop for real or vt for real? or that in the evnet of you being lynched you will claim for real?

Third thing

In post 1379, skitter30 wrote:
In post 1377, vulcan logician wrote:Well. I guess my scumread of you might be interpreted as some wild gambit by you and Sky, but it isn't. It's just as I said... concerns that came to mind as I was rereading the thread. I think the stuff I reposted deserves a little scrutiny now that we have the benefit of hindsight.

The reason I felt the need to express those thoughts is that if you ARE scum, you are in a position to win... although it would take lots of luck and Disney magic to get you from here to victory. If somebody else is scum, town will have a much easier time catching onto them by LYLO. So I didn't want you to pass so easily under our noses, y'know?

#staywoke


:igmeou:

a) after recieving pushback your scumread dropped from '70% certain' to 'some concerns that came to mind as I was rereading the thread'. this doesn't feel like something you really believe tbh given that you backed off when others questioned the read and instead decided to hop on the popular wagon

b) i feel like most of the evidence you're citing for scum!ausuka is very incidental and largely outweighed by the ap thing - does it even make sense for her to bus ap here? that's a key question that you're not really addressing. i kinda feel like you're trying to fan paranoia tbh

I kinda got thoughts on this as well but I wanna see what vul can say for hisself.

In post 1382, Enigma wrote:
In post 1352, Cardi B wrote:If I'm lyin and I'm secretly a cop or sommn I have an inno on Vulcan.

And wtf is this?

Im sayin if im lyin about bein VT, an Im actually a cop or a universal backup or summn, I know that vulcans town.

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Post Post #1391  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:04 pm

For those asking, maybe my 70% on Ausuka was a bit much. What I wanted to do there was voice my concerns while gauging reactions. I'll let it go if you will. lol. I see what you are saying about the AP bus. It does seem unlikely. I just wanted a response to my concerns. Furthermore, such stirring of the pot is not always negative, even when suspicions are misapplied. When I did it, I was bored, and I also felt the game was stagnating. So I shook things up.

But things have changed. I'm interested in Cardi's saying that if she's lying about me being VT, she knows I'm town. That happened right in the middle of the stuff I was saying earlier. And it made me think twice about my risky assertions.

And it got me thinking. I know I'm town, so her pseudoclaim seems plausible to me. It also means that if she is NKed, I will be towncleared which means I will thereafter be an asset to town (at the very least to eat a NK instead of a PR). Another reason I want to believe she is a cop is that, she was sussing on me hard D2, thus her investigating me makes sense. And why suggest me as an innocent if she's a VT? That's a bit risky because VT Cardi doesn't really know if I'm scum or not. All this makes me think there might be something to what Cardi says.

There are alternate explanations for Cardi's pseudoclaim 1) She's really a VT and trying to deflect a NK from a real PR -OR- 2) She's scum. I was about to get lynched, and my flipping green would help her fakeclaim a cop role. We can't count either of those out, I suppose.

So with all that on the table, I want to (for the moment) redact my suspicions that I cast at Ausuka and recommend a plan where we go after Ceej or someone else for the time being. I think Ceej is a safe bet so I voted him.

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Post Post #1392  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:36 pm

Interesting. What exactly made me a "safe bet"?
Ceejay is only gonna get better but his logic can be on the wrong side of lazy logic sometimes. ~the worst
Ceejay is a great person, but I think I always scum read him because his reads are so bad. ~brassherald

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Post Post #1393  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:55 pm

Ok if I'm cop/TPR/something, I hypo inno skitter.
I think I want to vote CJ. I don't think there is any way to definitively find scum based on the claims?

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Post Post #1394  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:26 pm

In post 1393, Enigma wrote:I think I want to vote CJ. I don't think there is any way to definitively find scum based on the claims?

It's in the vanillas almost certainly, and we're waiting to see if someone claims they picked and failed to get doc so we know it's from them upwards in the vanillas.

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Post Post #1395  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:31 pm

ruru - Jailkeeper (so no tracker)
Sky - Neighbourizer (so no fruit vendor)
Oka - Vengeful (so no N3 vig)
Vulcan - VT (attempted ???)
Invis - VT (attempted ???)
AP - PGO (so no 1-shot vig)
skitter - VT
Ausuka - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)
Cardi - VT
Enigma - cop/1-shot watcher?
music - VT (attempted ???)
Sando - VT (attempted ???)
CJ - VT (attempted vengeful)
ofrhz - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)


We know Invis tried and failed to get JK/Venge/Neighbouriser, the other powers they could have gone for are Tracker/N3 Vig/Fruit Vendor in that order. We know AP took PGO. All of those are fairly weak powers in the scheme of things, meaning my best guess would be that the 3rd is nearby to AP/Invis and picked something more powerful. I'd put my money on Vulcan and Skitter mechanically.

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Post Post #1396  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:29 pm

Hmm... I kinda think it’s very possible that vizzy picked jk? It’s a really strong role for scum

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Post Post #1397  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:30 pm

^ that would mean that Vulcan and skitter can both be town

VOTE: ceejay

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Post Post #1398  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:32 pm

Hold up we still need VTs to claim their picks
watch out she quacks

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Post Post #1399  (ISO)  » Thu Aug 02, 2018 11:43 pm

are we going in order or should i just claim?

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