SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[the worst]

Would you say you're always bad midgame?

not constantly but most of the time.

[Krazy]

I’m a loved fruit vendor.
[stuff]
The loved part is that it takes one extra vote to lynch me if it’s not LYLo/MYLO which I think is not compatible with a scum role??

Sho what do you think about the loved modifier on DV?

[Shoshin]

Irrelevant to DV's alignment.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: DeasVail

[the worst]

I have a bit of a read here but I'd rather not spout it quite yet. Shosh lmk if you're reading my mind.

[Shoshin]

No, I'm not reading your mind.

[Punreader]

Let's have Pun shoot Guac, then?

There are only two lynches which will make me submit this.

One is Espeonage; the other is yourself.

Otherwise, I refuse.

So,

Vote Espeonage

Current proposal is lynch espeonage, shoot guac.
Pun are you on board for this?

I am indeed.
VOTE: Espeonage.

[Punreader]

Pun's shooting Guac, so I don't really feel like lynching there today.

My shot on there has the caveat of an Espeonage lynch.

I will not shoot guacamole if the worst is lynched.

Nor will I shoot guacamole if guacamole is lynched, obviously.

[the worst]

I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?

[Shoshin]

Pun, why won't you shoot Guac?

[Shoshin]

We need to lynch Pun.

[Krazy]

Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?

[the worst]

We're not lynching Pun, they are almost 100% town. If I'm wrong and the game design is fucked (sorry ep) then WORST CASE SCENARIO they are tp.

I think we need to lynch Krazy and shoot Guac - I'm pretty confident that their flips crack this game the fuck open (if it doesn't just end the game altogether).

If I'm right about Pun's identity they are someone who tends to be extremely confident and occasionally stubborn their reads. but they're also a team player. I can't see them throwing the game here by vanity wagoning and refusing to shoot guac.

[DeasVail]

The town case on DV is also hilariously bad.

It's better than your scum case tbh

[the worst]

DV lovely I think you might be biased

[DeasVail]

so you think I'm town?

(But yeah I'm totally aware of that. Nonetheless, Krazy's read is correct while Shoshin's is not, soooo)

(Also Shoshin calling a town case on a town player "hilariously bad" when she is actually totally wrong about said player feels a bit yuck)

[DeasVail]

My thoughts are currently at the point of

Most likely to be scum

guacamole
Krazy
the worst
Shoshin
Espeonage
Punreader
Vaxkiller

Least likely to be scum

However, I would ideally like to lynch someone other than guac and have punreader kill guac, so am keen to talk with punreader about how we can make a guac kill happen.

[the worst]

ugh you're making me laugh in a serious phase and I both love it and hate it.

okay level with me for a sec. pretending those reads aren't like directed at you who you have to yell is town, do you actually find Krazy's read more integrous than Shoshin's?

[DeasVail]

But I very much empathize with the worst feeling as if he doesn't have a strong handle on the game.

Guacamole feels like an easy PoE option, but then it's probably too easy, and he's probably lower ranked than I would expect scum to be.

The Krazy slot as scum would make sense to me, and I don't think I ever townread Chara to the degree that everyone else seemed to, but his read of me over time seems weird from scum. He suspected me to begin with (made sense), and then revised that read for what I think was good reason. Scum probably need me as a mislynch here and he's not really helping that if he's scum! But then the options below him are not necessarily any better.

I don't have any STRONG reasons to read the worst as town, but his general play makes a lot of sense to me and I generally feel it to be town? I didn't feel that he was particularly likely as a Fire Assassin buddy, but at this point I'll have to consider him as scum just due to lack of SUPER STRONG reasons to consider him NOT SCUM. Eh, but I think he's probably town.

Shoshin is uh.... Shoshin

Espeonage would probably have been higher but the Vaxkiller 0 point is actually a pretty good one.

And then the others probably don't need to be explained.

---

PEdit: I like Krazy's apparent lack of effort towards looking like he has a well thought out read of me. But I do find it less likely to be authentic than Shoshin's read of me.

[the worst]

this is starting to kinda feel right. worst case scenario tomorrow is MyLo/LyLo, but I just don't see {Krazy, guac} containing two town.

VOTE: Krazy

[Krazy]

So, just to be clear, you find it more likely that FA and Nahdia both rated their ally as a 10 than it is that they distanced themselves from Espeonage by not voting Espeonage himself, but rather by ensuring he loses the bet?

Also, and this is an important point--think about the 0 point Vax argument very carefully. What does that require the scum to know? That requires the scum to know that Espeonage and Dunn are both real and telling the truth on Day 1. Remember--Punreader certainly lied about his claim on day 1. If you are scum, do you believe the claims of two members of the town in a large theme game?

The only way scum know the bet is even real is if Espeonage is scum and tell them it's real. For all scum know otherwise, Dunn and Espeonage are two masons. It only even looks like it would have to be a bus in retrospect because we know NOW that Dunn's claim is real. Think about that. Really think about that.

You are giving Espeonage a HARD PASS based on the assumption that scum 100% believed two day 1 claims.

How's that for flawed reasoning?

At the same time, you're assuming that a scum team that spent the entire last day cross-bussing BOTH rated a member of their scum team a 10.

If you are a scum team, do you rate Chara a 10 when there are as many townreads on him as there are? What value does that gain you?

Your current line of reasoning means Fire Assassin rated basically his whole scum team as 10s. Like holy shit, that's a pretty bold assumption for a team that has played the way they have this game.

[Krazy]

This townread of Espeonage is totally ignoring his play this game and is based on a single extremely tenuous piece of evidence. His roleclaim is fake. His play is not town. He is scum.

Scum played day 1 on the assumption that Espeonage was the most likely to be eliminated during the ranking stage and then proceeded to spend the rest of the game hard bussing him to have a strong endgame. Scum WANTED a flip on scum espeonage because this game has NI towns, vigs, and cops. They had to hard bus. Fire Assassin legitimately wanted to lynch Espeonage because that is HOW HE DOES NOT GET VIGGED. Why else do you think he bussed C.Shep?!

Vote Espeonage

You really need to re-evaluate this slot.

[DeasVail]

If you are a scum team, do you rate Chara a 10 when there are as many townreads on him as there are? What value does that gain you?

Your current line of reasoning means Fire Assassin rated basically his whole scum team as 10s. Like holy shit, that's a pretty bold assumption for a team that has played the way they have this game.

Firstly, we don't know what the intricacies of scum roles are. Perhaps being ranked higher than other people in the SUPP had some benefit.

Also, I did consider the 10s from FA as well, but it really just boils down to WIFOM, which doesn't hold MUCH strength considering the reasons to see everyone as town here. This stuff DOES make me hesitant, but I also feel like I have more reason to feel hesitant lynching Espe than I have reason to feel hesitant lynching you.

[DeasVail]

Fire Assassin legitimately wanted to lynch Espeonage because that is HOW HE DOES NOT GET VIGGED.

How would he have known his risk of being vigged at the beginning of Day 2?

[Krazy]

Also, I did consider the 10s from FA as well, but it really just boils down to WIFOM, which doesn't hold MUCH strength considering the reasons to see everyone as town here. This stuff DOES make me hesitant, but I also feel like I have more reason to feel hesitant lynching Espe than I have reason to feel hesitant lynching you.

Right, but you literally just said Esp would be higher but you are giving him a hard pass because of WIFOM BULLSHIT.

Read the slot. Evaluate the slot. And when you do, vote the slot.