SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Shoshin]

I mean, I dunno. Maybe it's not DV. I guess I'm just paranoid because his town play looks a lot better than this.

[Shoshin]

I'd also really hate to mislynch DV because he's been one of the few players townreading/defending me for most of the game, so I dunno.

[Shoshin]

The ideal outcome would be lynching Krazy, vigging guac, and if both are town, lynching DV tomorrow. But it's probably never going to happen, because Pun's going to lynch me before she ever lynches DV, and she's not going to vig guac if we lynch Krazy.

So I think this is our only option today:

VOTE: guacamole

[Shoshin]

I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.

[Krazy]

You can say im wrong on esp but case on me is highly implausible.

I was not getting shit for sitting on vax. If you think I use my ability to gain dvs vote and my scumteam doesnt lynch shoshin yesterday... you must think Im way confident in my ability to endgame.

According to your theory I:
Join the game
Sit on a vanity wagon
Theres no lynch
And then spend the entire next day forcing a lynch on a bus target
On the confidence of my ability to endgame as scum

Like im flattered, but you have clearly never played a game with me as scum. This is not something krazy does.

You can say its super implausible that esp is scum. Fine. This is a confusing setup and a confusing situation. But id also say that FA faking a guilty on esp is also highly suspicious. Why would scum go 1 for 1 on a vt? That doesnt make any fucking sense either.

You can say I havent played with esp, but maybe thats a good thing. Im not relying on him having a shitty town meta. Im just looking at my townblock, doing poe, and seeing who us even possible. Right now esp still seems more possible to me than anyone else and him being scum just explains a looot of this game.

Keep thinking about it. The lightbulb will come. This is the piece of the puzzle you have been missing.

[Vaxkiller]

I'm just way to uncomfortable with how theworst has been acting. I mean he literally had no opinion on c-shep vs me and after I explained it he still ignored acknowledging it, at least others had something to say about it. I think theworst just didnt know waht to do in that situtaion, i mean c-shep was already being bussed by fire at that point becuase fire saw the writing on the wall, he saw c-sheps mistake, i think they didnt want the entire team to buss because cshep thought he had a chance, but fire was all in... so the worst jsut stayed away from it.

On top of that you made it seem like you claiming was going to be something big and I see nothing. I see you trying t make something, but i dont understand it. I'm not buying this and I was the worst lynched.

VOTE: theworst

[the worst]

@Vaxk I think we should probably talk in real time. There's a few layers to this I'm not sure that you've totally considered (sorry if this is a little self metaey and gross)

Firstly--if I was on a scumteam with FireAss and CShep who had these huge ass gambits planned why the hell would I as the outlying player to them literally just duck having any opinion what so ever? I actually thoight CShep was town, do you not think it would have been more beneficial for my slot to work through the situation with my team and have a less shady stance on a slot which I would have known would end up flipping red?

I've spoken about the claim situation with Shosh as well. my roleclaim is only big in that it strongly suggests Punreader is an actual vig not an sk--the main reason I withheld it was to complete the massclaim. the actual bit that was highly important was learning Krazy and DV's roles because I thought one of them was bold faced lying about their night actions.

I know it's not ideal to pick apart your logic and hard defend myself but I think we're pretty close to solving this game just via self realising townblock. Jam with me here a little?

[DeasVail]

I am sincerely sorry for my play being underwhelming here compared to my usual town standard. It’s been a combination of RL busy-ness, a difficult gamestate and despite having made attempts to get myself back into things here, I’ve struggled. This is not meant as an excuse, because my play definitely should be better than this, but I am town and i obviously do not want to be mislynched.

I have given a lot of thought to the game this day phase and I keep going in circles. I think my approach here would be to lynch Krazy, but I really want to get Punreader onside with vigging guac first

[Errantparabola]

Apologize for the votecount delay. Being sick has but me behind on school and I've been frantically catching up for my final on Thursday.

Votecount 5.3

Espeonage

(2): Punreader, Krazy

Krazy

(2): Espeonage, the worst

guacamole

(1): Shoshin

the worst

(1): Vaxkiller

Not Voting

(2): DeasVail, guacamole

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-08-17 09:55:00)

[Punreader]

work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?

This

is

me working with you.
You trust me, right?

Well then, trust me to have done the number crunching. I looked at all the figures.
The only lynches today that are even remotely good are Shoshin, Espeonage, and guacamole. guacamole's a mislynch, mind you, but at least he's a smart mislynch rather than a dumb one.

The math works out as such:
Assume, no matter what, Vaxkiller is not lynched.
Assume, no matter what, pun kill Vaxkiller as he is conftown.

1. LYNCH: DeasVail/Krazy (the two are interchangeable in results):
   This is a mislynch. It subdivides from there.
   1. KILL: guacamole
      • If guacamole were pun, the pun player who is not guacamole likely has a way to prevent the vig from going through. guacamole lives through the night, making the vig a waste.
        
      • If guacamole is town, the pun let the vig go through. This then leaves us in 5p lylo.
        You are the player everyone has an incentive at this point to lynch; the other of DeasVail/Krazy wants you dead, Shoshin wants you dead, Espeonage wants you dead, and even I wouldn't be able to stop that lynch. This is, understandably, not ideal; it is a worst case scenario to be facing.
   2. DON'T KILL: guacamole:
      This need not be given bulletpoints as the result is the same regardless of his alignment. It's harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so.
      
      Conclusion: don't kill guacamole if one of Krazy/DeasVail is lynched.
2. LYNCH: the worst
   I don't think I need to explain to you why that'd be bad, yes? It's self-evident to you.
   
3. LYNCH: guacamole
   This is far from ideal, but it gets us into mylo tomorrow. It is still harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so. We have significantly more leeway than with a DeasVail/Krazy lynch in that regard.
   
4. LYNCH: Shoshin/Espeonage (the two are interchangeable in results):
   This is a pun lynch. FURTHERMORE, both of their lynches have identical effects. They elevate you to conftown levels, and condemn the other. A Shoshin lynch means you never get lynched, the worst; an Espeonage lynch means you never get lynched; a lynch of Espeonage makes Shoshin a prime punbuddy candidate; a lynch of Shoshin given Shoshin's Espeonage defense points fingers at Espeonage rather strongly.
   guacamole can thus safely be shot.

Simply put. I thought ahead. I thought the way pun would be thinking, about the endgame

they

want to set up, and how to best deal with that endgame.

Krazy/DeasVail lynches today with a guacamole shot condemn you to die tomorrow, the worst. That is thus why they are not ideal.
Your lynch today is self-evidently not ideal, and I'm not going to exasperate it by then shooting guacamole.
guacamole's lynch today isn't the best, but it's not terrible. You're not condemned tomorrow, and we have a shot at winning the game.
Shoshin and Espeonage's lynches today are the best; they afford me the luxury of shooting town.

I am willing to shoot guacamole, then, on the lynch of a pun player.

I am not willing to shoot guacamole upon the lynch of a town player.

And I've made it quite unambiguous who I've felt is which alignment, yes?

So you can understand then why I'm not shooting guacamole if you lynch Krazy or DeasVail because that would be literally gamethrowing on my part.

Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?

You seem to have forgotten a fundamental fact regarding the bet.
Vaxkiller, one of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven town via MariaR's cop result.
Fire Assassin, the other of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven pun by his flip.

It thus says nothing about Espeonage's alignment that pun wanted Fire Assassin ranked higher than Vaxkiller, because that is a natural thing for them to have wanted.

[Punreader]

it's like literally their wincon to hear us out :/

It's literally yours to understand why I'm not shooting town if we mislynch town since that places us in what is basically an autolose situation.

[Punreader]

I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.

Alternatively, I feel like vigging guacamole after mislynching town with the worst as a prime lynch candidate is absolutely not a good thing to do.

You'd have to be blind to not realize that's the exact gamestate we'd end up with in the events I outlined.

Or are you saying that if we mislynched Krazy/DeasVail and guacamole was vigged and flipped town, you'd suddenly be clearing the worst?

Of course not.

[Shoshin]

Pun, why are you so certain these are mislynches?

[Shoshin]

Why is Guac town to you?

[Shoshin]

Like, Pun, what do you think is gonna happen if you don't vig Guac? We're going to lynch him.

[Punreader]

Pun, why are you so certain these are mislynches?

Because Chara wasn't pun, Krazy isn't pun, and DeasVail is so incredibly unlikely to be pun that it's not something I'll ever consider.

As far as guacamole goes, I confess I am not as certain he is town as I am the others.

I maintain, however, that if he IS pun, that his punbuddy has a method to foil a vig there, leaving a vig attempt on him detrimental. If he's pun, it'll fail; if he's not pun, then pun will let the shot go through on town. Either way, we come out behind.

This is also why he's an acceptable, albeit far from ideal, lynch. I feel he is far more likely to be town than not, but acknowledge there's a realistic chance he could be pun.

[Shoshin]

Because Chara wasn't pun, Krazy isn't pun, and DeasVail is so incredibly unlikely to be pun that it's not something I'll ever consider.

As far as guacamole goes, I confess I am not as certain he is town as I am the others.

I maintain, however, that if he IS pun, that his punbuddy has a method to foil a vig there, leaving a vig attempt on him detrimental. If he's pun, it'll fail; if he's not pun, then pun will let the shot go through on town. Either way, we come out behind.

This is also why he's an acceptable, albeit far from ideal, lynch. I feel he is far more likely to be town than not, but acknowledge there's a realistic chance he could be pun.

Why can't Chara be scum? Why can't Krazy be scum? Why can't DV be scum? Why can't the worst be scum? Why can't Guac be scum? Like, what's your reasoning? What specific things have they done to make you think they're town? What posts make you think they're town? What're the town-tells?

As for Guac, that's about the most absurd reasoning I've ever heard for not vigging him. Why would you assume that scum have a way to foil the vig? And even assuming the vig will fail, so what? Worst-case scenario, your vig fails. Best-case scenario, it doesn't. Why is that a reason not to vig him in the first place?

The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture. Even if you thought Guac was strong town (and you clearly don't), you'd at least recognize that nobody else agrees with you and that's he's getting lynched if you don't agree to vig him. So, like, you shouldn't want town wasting a lynch on someone you could vig, especially when lynches are a lot more valuable than your vig. Like, ugh. You're just so bad at this game if you're town, it's actually starting to get on my nerves, especially because of how absurdly confident you are in yourself.

[Shoshin]

I have given a lot of thought to the game this day phase and I keep going in circles. I think my approach here would be to lynch Krazy, but I really want to get Punreader onside with vigging guac first

I don't get the sense that you've actually given this much thought... why is your approach to lynch Krazy? do you think guac is scum? what do you think of the worst? And can you give your reasoning on all these reads? Where are you on Espe?

[Shoshin]

Pun, you ranked Screen a 1, so I'd like to know how that read changed from scum to town. Was it MWNN's play? Or Guac's play? And what about their play? MWNN mislynched Penguin instead of lynching Shepard, so I'm not sure how you classify that as town. Guac pushed for my lynch over Shepard's, so again not sure how you classify that as town. Like, what the fuck? Your way of thinking about this game makes no sense at all.

[guacamole]

VOTE: Espeonage

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Espeonage

Please explain this vote further

[Krazy]

Keep thinking about it. The lightbulb will come. This is the piece of the puzzle you have been missing.

[Espeonage]

Ok what's been happening.

[Espeonage]

Oh

[Espeonage]

Wait why is pun convinced me and Sho are scum?