SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Espeonage]

Hmm ok 8 alive. Most likely scenario is 5/2/1 if pun is sk.

Say scum gets lynched 5/1/1, say two town die which would make sense.

3/1/1 scum gets lynched, town dies to sk. 2/1 and that's a dead sk in lylo.

If town gets lynched it's 4/2/1, sk can shoot town 2/2/1 which is kingmaker, either sk gets lynched and scum win, or town gets lynched and either scum win or it goes to 3 player kingmaker or some shit. Or scum gets lynched 2/1/1 and there's a few permutations for how that plays out but town isn't winning.

Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.

[DeasVail]

Woah hey Espe Reg and I were just talking about you!

What is the significance of the above post to you personally?

[Vaxkiller]

Votecount 3.8

Commander Shepard

(5): Fire Assassin, Shoshin, Vaxkiller, MariaR, DeasVail

Shoshin

(3): Punreader, Commander Shepard, the worst

Fire Assassin

(2): Espeonage, guacamole

Not Voting

(2): Chara, Dunnstral

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-07-21 13:08:00)

The worst is scum. I'm going to keep screaming it until you guys believe me like the last 2 days with commander. JUST TRUST ME I GO THIS.

[Vaxkiller]

Hmm ok 8 alive. Most likely scenario is 5/2/1 if pun is sk.

pun is def the SK, but im ok with him living at the moment, hes been acting more towny lately. I'm actually thinking he might be a 3rd party win with town kinda thing, but hey, we all know if we kill the last scum and the game still goes on to kill him.

[Espeonage]

Woah hey Espe Reg and I were just talking about you!

What is the significance of the above post to you personally?

I think it means pun actually townreads both me and sho. Or at least me bc that's what is being pushed.

It explains the turnaround evident in even just this day phase.

[Vaxkiller]

You guys OWE me a lynch, I wanted c-shep lynched the day before and you NO LUNCHED. I'm owed a lynch.

[Shoshin]

Why is the worst scum, Vax?

[Punreader]

Why can't Chara be scum? Why can't Krazy be scum? Why can't DV be scum?

These would require full cases, reliant at least part on meta. Both Chara and DeasVail are players I have played extensively with. Not so much for Krazy, but my townread there is based around what he has done and continues to do; it is self-evident that his analysis is town-driven.

Why can't the worst be scum?

This however is a read I already explained.

Why can't Guac be scum?

He can be! I simply find it unlikely.

Why would you assume that scum have a way to foil the vig?

Because the pun provably, 100%, have a way to foil the vig. MariaR died and due to her role's nature, unused powers go to her killer. If you assume guacamole was not her killer (a reasonably safe assumption), then you can reasonably deduce that her killer has a doc shot.

On top of that, any player with an unproven roleclaim has the ability for their roleclaim to either be an outright fakeclaim or an only partially true claim with them possessing another ability. I said this back when we were discussing vig targets much earlier in the game in fact:

As for being leashed?
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the bottom half of my reads (and that is currently the case), I refuse.
If the majority of the people asking for me to be leashed are in the top half of my reads (which is not currently the case), I will do so provided two additional conditions:

Condition #2:

I will not shoot someone in the top half of my readslist. The first reason for this would be that, obviously, someone in the top half of my readslist is more likely to outrank me (and thus make me not vig them), making it stupid to try.
The second, and far more important (and frankly, obvious) reason I won't shoot someone in the top half of my readslist is that them being in the top half of my readslist means I am townreading them and no duh, I refuse to shoot a townread because

that would be deliberately shooting at someone I think is town

, which is gamethrowing.

Condition #3:

I will not limit my vig to a single name. It must be a pool of 3-5 players, no more no less. More than five isn't really much of a leash at all, now, is it? Yet less than 3 narrows it down too much. 3-5 is the butter zone of vig names. The reason for not limiting it to a single name is also obvious enough if you think it through. If the pun know the EXACT player I am going to vig, that gives them many methods of failure otherwise unavailable to them.

By manipulating their votes, they can ensure my target is ranked higher than me (causing me to not vig them).
By doctoring my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By rolestopping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
If my target has an activated defensive ability, e.g. activated commute, activated bulletproof, activated pgo, then telling them I am going to shoot them allows for them to use it.
By jailkeeping my target, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By roleblocking me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By jailkeeping me, they can ensure my target survives a vig.
By busdriving my target, they can ensure I vig someone we don't want dead.

That's a lot of failure methods.

In contrast, by using the pool of 3-5 names, the pun are forced to guess.
By having 3-5 names, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder for the pun to manipulate the pool and ensure my target is ranked higher than me.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot doctor my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot rolestop my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot jailkeep my kill, leading them to potentially waste it if limited, use it wrong, or not use it when needed if limited.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether using their activated defensive abilities is necessary, leading them to potentially waste them and also potentially not use them when needed.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether roleblocking me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus cannot know whether jailkeeping me is a good or bad idea.
By having 3-5 names, the pun cannot guess with accuracy who I will shoot, thus making a successful busdrive unlikely.

The downside to this is that I am in fact less accountable, my actions can run afoul of town protectives targeting in the pool (unlikely as that may be given that this would be a pun pool so protectives SHOULDN'T be targeting consensus punreads), and the consequences of the pun getting it

right

are higher (for instance, say the pun DO correctly guess my target and successfully busdrive; I am placed in the rather ugly situation where two incredibly town players die overnight and my target did not, something which is statistically speaking unlikely to have occurred), but overall a pool rather than a specific name gives a much greater shot at making shots be meaningful.

I could vote fire today actually

Then do so.
Just because I am ranked higher than Fire does not guarantee that he dies. If I am roleblocker, redirected, or he has immunity (remember, pun via killing Maria may have her doc shot) be it commute, hide, rolestop, or protection, he lives.

It is safer to just Lynch him, as we know that will kill him.

My point being, my Vig can fail; our Lynch cannot. I would rather not take the risk. I'd shoot him if he wasn't lynched, but I would prefer the option with an absolute 0% failure rate.

This close to lylo, safe play takes priority over theoretically optimal play.

I am quite aware a Lynch plus a Vig is superior to just a Lynch. It is also much riskier if we Lynch someone who is town.
As commander shepherd is town, the risk of that Lynch is too high. We should Lynch the player with the highest chance of being pun: that is Fire Assassin.

^This latter post in particular. I used it as reasoning why Fire Assassin was the superior lynch; my reasoning is no less valid now than it was then.

Worst-case scenario, your vig fails. Best-case scenario, it doesn't. Why is that a reason not to vig him in the first place?

Because said "best case" scenario only happens if he's town.

The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture.

To the contrary! I am the

only

person thinking of the big picture. Thinking of the big picture is why I am doing the things I am.

Pun, you ranked Screen a 1, so I'd like to know how that read changed from scum to town. Was it MWNN's play? Or Guac's play? And what about their play? MWNN mislynched Penguin instead of lynching Shepard, so I'm not sure how you classify that as town. Guac pushed for my lynch over Shepard's, so again not sure how you classify that as town. Like, what the fuck? Your way of thinking about this game makes no sense at all.

Well considering both of those are pushes I am also guilty of and I know for a fact I am town...

[Punreader]

Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.

Thus why my vested interest in not wanting to lynch town and refusing to shoot town after having mislynched helps demonstrate decisively why I'm not a serial killer.

As you yourself note. Were I a serial killer, I'd have no reason to refuse to shoot guacamole. Regardless of guacamole's alignment, his death would be an extra person dead, pushing the game closer to where I'd be the last alive. But because I am not a serial killer, I have to pursue my actual wincon. And my actual wincon tells me that shooting guacamole is a stupid idea if we mislynch today.

Wait why is pun convinced me and Sho are scum?

It's a combination of reasons, from POE, what agendas you are pushing compared to what "agendas" others are pushing, and simple analysis of the gamestate.

[Punreader]

Forgot to include this.

It explains the turnaround evident in even just this day phase.

My turnaround, as you so call it, can also far more simply be explained by me having done analysis and from the conclusions of said analysis, come to the conclusions I did.

Not all of these are even new conclusions.
Krazy, DeasVail, and guacamole townreads in particular are townreads I've held for a significant amount of time. If you think otherwise, that is a failure on your part to have paid attention to my reads on prior day phases since the last time I held suspicion on any of them was on D2. All of them have been townreads since D3, to varying extents.

Shoshin has been a punread since D3 as well, with the same catalyst.

You and the worst are the only reads which I can say have changed today. You to pun, the worst to town.

[Krazy]

Hmm ok 8 alive. Most likely scenario is 5/2/1 if pun is sk.

Say scum gets lynched 5/1/1, say two town die which would make sense.

3/1/1 scum gets lynched, town dies to sk. 2/1 and that's a dead sk in lylo.

If town gets lynched it's 4/2/1, sk can shoot town 2/2/1 which is kingmaker, either sk gets lynched and scum win, or town gets lynched and either scum win or it goes to 3 player kingmaker or some shit. Or scum gets lynched 2/1/1 and there's a few permutations for how that plays out but town isn't winning.

Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.

This is a pretty good explanation of why SK!Pun would want to lynch scum today. SK!Pun does not want to go into 2/2/1 kingmaker because he likely loses based on the uncertainty of a closed setup. Scum argues "oh, well with an SK there's probably only one maf left, so it's safer to lynch the SK" or some bs like that. They only need one vote at that point to win. SK!Pun has much better chances in 3/1/1 than he does in 2/2/1, because at that point there's two players who basically 100% know his alignment and are both actively working against him, rather than 3 people who are lost in a confusing clusterfuck of a setup.

If Pun is SK, he wants to lynch scum today. This is a pretty weak case of discrediting, and it does nothing to indicate who you think is scum, why, or what makes you town outside of a) your fakeclaim, and b) the cross-bus with FA, which the cross-bus is the best explanation of why it took so long to lynch C.Shep. You sit on Fire Assassin and never have to contribute to a lynch on C.Shep while still trying to look towny as a result, because your bus target flips scum. It also explains why FA fakes a cop guilty on you, because YOU FLIP SCUM and then he's confirmed cop. This is a setup that highly incentivizes cross-bussing due to the nature of the ranking phase eliminations and the one-shot vig targets, so heavy distancing from the scum team in the ranking phase and cross-bussing later on would all make sense.

I have a cop guilty on Espeonage.

Fire Assassin

does not write this post if Espeonage is town.

The only explanation for this cop guilty is ESPEONAGE BEING GUILTY. Fire Assassin wanted to be a CONFIRMED COP, because that was his strongest ENDGAME.

Like, I know this is odd, but I actually just reread a game that was EXACTLY like this. Scum cross-bus because they NEED TOWN PROTECTIVES to protect them from an SK. So they HEAVY COMMIT TO EARLY GAME CROSS-BUSSING. They cop guilty one of their own so that they can ENDGAME VS THE SK while drawing TOWN PROTECTIVES.

ESPEONAGE IS SCUM.

[Shoshin]

Krazy, do you think guac is scum or not?

[Shoshin]

pun is def the SK, but im ok with him living at the moment, hes been acting more towny lately.

How is Pun acting towny? He's refusing to shoot guac, while pushing a mislynch on me. Like, you'd think he would have reevaluated his reads after that terrible read on Shepard, but instead he's doubling down on his bad reads. More towny? WTF?

[Shoshin]

These would require full cases, reliant at least part on meta. Both Chara and DeasVail are players I have played extensively with. Not so much for Krazy, but my townread there is based around what he has done and continues to do; it is self-evident that his analysis is town-driven.

This is the same vague bullshit you said about Shepard, and you were wrong. So I want specifics

[Shoshin]

Fire Assassin does not write this post if Espeonage is town. The only explanation for this cop guilty is ESPEONAGE BEING GUILTY. Fire Assassin wanted to be a CONFIRMED COP, because that was his strongest ENDGAME.

I've seen scum claim cop on D2 with a guilty on town in many games...

[Krazy]

Were those large theme games Sho, with a significantly higher number of power roles?

Is your meta assessment of fire that he is a weak player that would accept a 1 for 1 on day 2?

Espeonage more than anyone else I feel like is lying about his role.

Guac and NoName I never got a strong read on, which in a town that looks towny, seems scummy by comparison. I'm not sure what to do with the denied action on the worst.

I do somehow feel like it's significant that the worst and Taly were targeted by guac, that the worst claims being targeted again, and that guac denies it. I kinda wonder about what abilities scum have that might involve duplicating the effects on Taly the night he was killed. But I don't know with certainty that guac ends up being implicated as a result.

My uncertainty on guac makes me look at slots that seem genuinely scummy in and of themselves, and that leaves me primarily with Espeonage, who I do believe is the scummiest person in the room by any metric.

-Activity
-Arguments
-Reads
-Role
-Associations

Everything points to Espeonage for me. He hard lurks except when called out. His reads seem fake and uninterested in the game state. His role seems fake. I can see why scum would bus him. The ranking phase votes seem to require scum 100% believing his roleclaim is real, which they would only do if they know it is real. Everything in this game makes a lot more sense if Espeonage is scum.

That guac is voting him makes me unsure who Espeonage's buddy is, but Espeonage himself is definitely scum.

[Shoshin]

@Krazy

Yes, those were role madness games. I saw a scum fake a cop guilty on town on D2, mislynch the town, then survive until endgame. The whole point of a role madness game is that it allows scum to pull shit like that because of potential misdirection roles, framer, etc.

Espe's role isn't fake... Dunn had the same role...

Espe's behavior is fine. He pushed a lynch on Fire. His reads are okay, nothing crazy. He didn't scumread Shep but to the extent he pushed a counterwagon it was always on Fire, another scum.

Espe's strong defense of Dunn was towny as fuck. I was paranoid as hell about Dunn, and Espe came out strongly defending him. Like, there's more town in Espe's posts than there is in Guac's or the worst's, especially given the way they interacted with Shepard.

[Shoshin]

Let's talk about your metrics.

Activity - not AI but if it is, it applies equally to guac's slot, DV's slot, and the worst's slot.

Argumens - what's this?

Reads - better than guac's or the worst's

Role - proven via Dunn and Dunn's flip

Associations - better than guac's or the worst's

Why the fuck are you scumreading Espe as opposed to guac or the worst? Like, I'm just at a loss here as to what is going through your mind here. And it's making me scumread you.

[Shoshin]

Is your meta assessment of fire that he is a weak player that would accept a 1 for 1 on day 2?

I think strong players often accept a 1 for 1 if they can get some benefit from it, so I don't think that's an indication of weakness, I also think that Fire claimed the guilty in a way that would have allowed him all sorts of outs from actually getting lynched in the event that Espe flipped town. Like, not only by saying he fucked up his calculation of rankings but also by claiming misdirection roles, etc. The reality is that scum often put themselves in the position to do a 1 for 1 trade knowing that town might mislynch yet not ever lynch the scum afterwards, because towns don't know who the scum are so they often fuck this up, more often than you seem to think (I've seen it many times).

[Krazy]

Espe's role isn't fake... Dunn had the same role...

If you want to make a case on the worst I am open to your arguments.

But no, Espe did not have the same role as Dunn. Dunn had a hood or something. So if Esp won the bet, he could vanillaize him. Remove the hood.

If Dunn wins the bet, and Vanillaizes Esp... nothing happens. He is already VT.

The entire bet mechanic then has one of its main outcomes being... do nothing?

For a setup that spent months in QA?

No fucking way.

The bet was real. But there is no way there's NOTHING else to his role. Since he claims there is, I call bullshit. He is lying.

[the worst]

The issues I have with this in a nutshell (other games and things keep stealing my wallposting time >:/)

- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.

[the worst]

I've been talking myself in circles about this shit all phase. Someone (Pun>Shoshin>everyone else) please engage with me here.

Vaxk isn't getting an invite to my birthday party anymore because he's just tunnelling and ignoring me. this is officially a liability if tomorrow is LyLo proper.

[Krazy]

Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.

Interesting points about the unfun potential. It's worth thinking about. So right now are you saying Sho is more likely than Esp?

Esp and Fire gain the confidence of the town and likely protective shots. If either flips scum, it gives them open range on the rest of the town. Are you seriously asking me to explain the appeal of a cross-bus? It's not rocket science.

[the worst]

Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus? lmao

My feel is we're looking at two players who are way too skilled to just have a lame ass slapfight d1. if either of them wanted the bus, they should've seen it to completion. fmpov neither of them gained express towncred thru their interactions--on the contrary creating the possibility of it looking like crossbussing without the gain of sweet sweet towncred feels like attention that nobody should want if they intend to flip their scumbuddy....

[the worst]

I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.

definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?