Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[skitter30]

i don't really have anything new to add and keyser is ready to end the day i think

VOTE: gustavo

L-1

[skitter30]

Are we waiting for something in particular or ... ?

[skitter30]

/le sigh

not looking forward to tomorrow then

[skitter30]

i wish i could pull something like that off lol

[skitter30]

yeah if it isn't gustavo it's prob ep; you're pretty town too

i guess i'm just very confused what tw was trying to accomplish in the first place, if bs hadn't incidentally caught him in a lie

scum!bv means tw got neighgorized by ep, and faked a guilty on his partner (and i don't think tw could expect to coast on towncred, so they were throwing in the towel basically on some sort of hail-mary fake 1v1)

scum!ep means that the whole neighborhood thing was a farce and ep was basically in hard-bus mode throughout day3, and that *he* expected to coast for outing and denouncing tw

but like ... that means that their optimal plan was for ep to hard-bus tw and force him to out a fake result to guilty a townie with a pretty realistic paraphrasing of the non-existant pt and this all just seems so outlandish and his reactions during the bs claim seemed really authentic

*both* versions seem so implausible

==

but holistically bv's town af i think

[skitter30]

hi

i will prob be voting ep since i think bv is prob out of his scumrange - ep if you have any compelling reason why i oughtn't do that let me know

i'm going to wait a couple of days before i do to see if i get back the motivation i need to go through some iso's and key parts of the game given mylo

(still not doing super awesome irl and my motivation is kinda waxing and waning and atm i don't have very much)

==

actually i read thru ep's iso ,and some salient points:

-> on day3 he's calling tw's pr soft 'the elephant in the room' day2 when i don't think it was that obvious or important or relevant day2 (the other person who called major attention to the softing thing was interestingly mom - could they have planned this out since like day1/night1 which is why scum was focusing on the softing?). idk how well i explained this - like scum knew he was going to fake-claim and thus incorporated that into their fake reads of tw and gave it credence but town didn't know what he was up to at that point and he was scumread so didn't read much into it

-> he also voted tw day2 despite the softing being 'the elephant in the room' that he claims he was dancing around

-> i also think he was setting up to push irrelephant on a scum!mom flip, except he never really followed through with that - similarly he was building up to pushing irrelephant after scum!tw flip

-> day2 mom and tw were the bottom of his reads consistently

-> 2655 and 2676 just feels super real tho

-> ep being scum means that scum's plan from like n1 or so was: ep (scum rb) rb'd bernie. claimed to have neighborized his partner, tw. day2 not push him because of pr tells (that mom incidentally saw). day3 claim he was in a nieghborhood with tw n2 and that tw claimed he was going to check bv overnight. and then when tw is sketchy as fuck hardbus him for lying, and then coast

which is all kinda implausible but i gues what happened? i feel like this is something nsg or math might cook up with tw but i don't think either of them were active at that point anymore

-> his one super strong scumread throughout the game was tw in middle of tw's fake-claim stuff

->

VOTE: the worst
you had me panicked for nothing dude

aside, 'panicked' is a very interesting turn of phrase here

-> also he kinda had doubts on both gustavo and nm while the wagons were happening but never really used those reads to pivot to where he thought scum actually were

[skitter30]

Kinda need ep to come talk to us

Kinda need to know where keyser is at

I'm going to look over tw's iso tonight I think

[skitter30]

Hey the worst, any thoughts on Errant?

there's a very specific reason I'm not talking about the NSGslot much here

EP's contribution... his catchup was kinda ok but felt largely consensusey. I'd be kinda curious to see his reason for townreading me but temporarily willing to put that down to being psychic until further notice
there's really nothing there that I find particularly alignment-telling, just kinda obligatory. maybe +1% scum equity for feeling safe/survivalitic but not going there yet

This post is from mid day1 and is actually really weird?

Given the alleged timeline of everything

[skitter30]

good take and literally consistent with how town!Dino treats my slot
I'm taking my usual approach here and just treating Math as maybe?town because he'll probably be sorted by night actions.
at the same time I'm not really seeing scum!Dino tactics here. he's been low site activity recently but scum!Dino consistently plays with a greater agenda. like if Math is scum here I don't see what he's doing.

Kinda icky for bv tho tbh

[skitter30]

Bv if you have specific questions for me can you please ask them succinctly in clear English without answering your own question with your own opinions

and preferably in their own short posts so I read them

like rn I'm reading maybe 1/10 of your posts and praying to the mafia gods that you eat a nk or get copped so I don't have to sort you

And this is probably anti-associative

[skitter30]

sounds good

i was going through his iso on my phone which is why it's kinda in pieces but i'm going to switch to a computer now i think because phone-posting is god-awful and beginning to annoy me

i'll see if i can go through yours after

idk if i have any questions so much as i'm thinking aloud as i read things

[skitter30]

thank you. I kept trying to discreetly tell people that keeping me alive was good. >:/

for the record EP plays a part in why I had such a lovely night.

a few of my brain cells die every time someone votes for me

the fuck @ ep in particular

But if tw has a guilty he should definitely put it this day phase.

it'll happen, in good time.

ep needs to be very quiet here

also tbh not sure why he keeps highlighting ep here

[skitter30]

also it was quite possibly the polar opposite of discreet

like htis is what i was talking about when going through ep's iso before - i don't think tw's pr softs were *that* strong and ep seemed to have been highlighting them almost and saying that they were strong than they were if that makes sense

[skitter30]

Actually tbf Mom said something about PR-reading him near the end of D1,

^^^^ like this is my point - mom was pr-reading him near the end of day1 but i don't think anyone else was

and ep's claims of reading tw as a pr are almost too strong

@ep: what were u thinking day2 after tw softed pr after you neighborized him

[skitter30]

i still think that tw/mom/ep shooting absetn!math is more likely than tw/mom/absent!math shooting gustavo here

[skitter30]

his intention is definitely to suggest he has a guilty with his opening post. whether he actually does have a guilty, or intends to fakeclaim a guilty, or is just reaction testing with an inno, or a fakeclaimed inno, so on and so forth, will have to wait until he actually says his damn result

also i'm not sure why he thinks this given the convo they had in the neighborhood?

[skitter30]

i keep getting stuck at 2655 because it feels super real tho

[skitter30]

bernie you think tw/bv?

and tw busses bv for the towncred?

y tho

he'd be the last surviving scum assuming 10-3 and then he has to explain why he isn't dead in endgame. i think it's kinda risky

bv is less suspected than tw so why have tw fake a guilty on his partner and if they were hell-bent on doing that, why not do it the other way around?

i still think this mostly

if bs hadn't intervened i think tw was hoping to get bv lynched and like ... tw doesn't expect to believe to survive to endgame on that i think

[skitter30]

ftr I do not know what you mean here

also not sure why tw is confused about this in the context of being neighborized by ep

[skitter30]

ok, things to do:

1. read bv's iso
2. look at vc's
3. need ep to post
4. need to know where keyser is at

i'll try to do the vc's tonight i think

[skitter30]

yeah i'm around a bit

[skitter30]

i may have mentioned before but i fucking hate having hammer, especially in lylo

do u like want me to hammer you?

[skitter30]

anyway for anyone doubting that confs me as town but i think we all know that already

p-edit yeah that

[skitter30]

was that meant to hammer test me or ... ?

[skitter30]

uh honestly that makes me think you did that so you can conf bv as scum without having to go through the motions of trying to figure out if it's me

but have a good night!

[skitter30]

also i'm kinda getting the vibe that u just don't really want to do lylo

i don't know if that's ai tbh

[skitter30]

bv ur being very quiet and it's actually low-key disconcerting me

i shall now try to look at votecounts

[skitter30]

"What are you staring at? Haven't you ever seen a great man before?"

Votecount 1.5

skitter30(2)

~ Keyser Söze(45), Irrelephant11(16)

Nauci(2)

~ Mathdino(40), Shoshin(62)

Momrangal(2)

~

northsidegal(4)

,

the worst(37)

the worst(1)

~ Invisibility(26)

Shoshin(1)

~ skitter30(38)

northsidegal(1)

~ stungun0404(24)

Mathdino(1)

~ Bernie Sanders(66)

Invisibility(1)

~ Momrangal(6)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Nauci(17)


Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald(24)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-02 17:10:00)

this is actually a pretty bizarre vc if ep is scum tbh

[skitter30]

"Hey, I've got this kite, and this key..."

Votecount 1.6

Momrangal(4)

~ northsidegal(4), the worst(48), skitter30(41), stungun0404(28)

skitter30(2)

~ Keyser Söze(56), Irrelephant11(18)

Nauci(2)

~ Mathdino(40), Shoshin(62)

the worst(1)

~ Invisibility(26)

Mathdino(1)

~ Bernie Sanders(66)

Invisibility(1)

~ Momrangal(6)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Nauci(17)


Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald(24)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-02 17:10:00)

and so is this one but tbf i don't think nsg was around anymore at this point

[skitter30]

they were both on mom till 1.10 over a span of three irl days while tw was the biggest wagon which is actually kinda odd tbh

maybe not so odd because nsg and mom were effectively lurker slots

and tw a bit too

[skitter30]

But vca is a helpful tool and it is honestly just very likely that I'm write about the 2/1 split, with a possible exception in the case of lurky scum

there's almost for sure at least one scum on the wagon, and i doubt all three of them are on it

i really have no way of pinning down whether it's one or two at this time

Gamma Emerald(7) ~ Mathdino, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo, the worst, Irrelephant11, Bernie Sanders
Momrangal(2) ~

skitter30

, Nauci
Bernie Sanders(2) ~ Keyser Söze, Momrangal
Shoshin(1) ~

Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (1): Errantparabola

although if i actual look at this and color in the flips and me it's indicative that if there's two off it's one of {errant/nauci} and one of {keyser/ mom} (ignoring my own personal reads + the fact that i don't think two scum were sitting on bernie at eod)

if we factor in my reads it points to mom + errant i think given town!nauci and scum!mom

that's my most likely guess if there's two off.

huh

[skitter30]

There have been two sets of father-son Presidents, John Adams/John Quincy Adams and George H.W. Bush/George W. Bush.

Votecount 2.7

momrangal (4)

~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst

the worst(1)

~ Irrelephant11

Shoshin (1)

~ Gustavo

Keyser Soze (1)

~ shoshin

Gustavo (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Not Voting (3): BlackVoid, Momrangal,Keyser Soze, Nauci

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-15 20:30:00)

interesting too

ep didn't vote anywhere day1

and his vote day2 was only on tw and mom (at least to where i'm up to)

actually ep looks pretty good by vca

[skitter30]

5 Presidents never gave an inaugural speech.

Votecount 4.Final

Not_Mafia (5)

~ BlackVoid, Irrelephant11, Gustavo, Errantparabola, Nauci

Errantparabola (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2)

~ skitter30, Keyser Soze

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2018-08-01 08:00:00)

A lynch has been achieved.

besides for this vote on nm i think ep's slot has only voted scum

i'm trying to figure otu if that's a good thing or a bad thing

[skitter30]

ok what i learned from that is that ep's slot actually looks pretty good via vca

given that ep didn't have super strong scumreads throughout the agme i'm wondering why his only votes were on scum tho

@ep: do you tend to vote a lot as town?

[skitter30]

actually can you maybe link the past couple of towngames you've played?

it's a little hard to pick them out from your posting history

[skitter30]

also i think that besides for the much-discussed n1 kill and last night (sorta) all the kills were dictated by outed prs so nka isn't super useful this game

[skitter30]

ok i need to read through bv's iso (tomorrow)

and maybe my own if i have time and feel like it

but i'm strongly tending to ep rn

i just need to finish my due diligence first given mylo

if it's actually bv i will be some combination of annoyed and impressed that he pocketed me this hard

[skitter30]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

You should. I've already put much more into this game than I've ever done as scum over whole games. As scum, I would almost certainly have voted Momrangal early on because looking good is more important than being right. I was unsure between Momrangal and TheWorst and really wanted to make sure I made the right decision there. I would

never

have made a post like 2423 as scum. I wouldn't spend a whole catchup pushing my partner and then flush any potential towncred I could get down the toilet by backing off at the last moment.

I also didn't "disappear." I went to sleep and when I woke up, I found out N_M hammered. I don't think I can convince you that not voting until you're ready isn't anti-town but since you know for a fact, I hold onto my vote, you should see that it isn't alignment indicative.

Ok skimming through bv's iso in bits and pieces but honestly how he interacted with the mom wagon is pretty damn town for him/his playstyle because scum!him knows shes flipping scum and would want the towncred of very obviously being on the wagon

Overall I think hes iso is pretty townie (and that I should have picked up on that ages ago)

I'm going to pick up from this post later

And then check if the ep-voting thing is ai in any way

I'm going to try to finish this by the end of the day and then vote so ep if you have anything you'd like to add now would be the time to do so

[skitter30]

Although if ep is scum I'm wondering who even like came up with this - we have a 1shot rb who's going to pretend to be a neighborizer and neighborize his partner, and will then out his partner's fake guilty in the most incriminating way possible and hardbus him and then coast for the rest of the game

Like just putting it like that ... how did they even decide to make this a thing

It's just so outlandish

And scum!bv means - scum gets neighborized by town day2 and heavily softed that hes going to investigate his (1srb) partner in thread and then tells that to his town neighbor overnight who then outs him the next day, and the 1srb incidentally claims something that doesn't really fit with with the fake-guilty before his partner claims, and then the bussing partner was going to try to coast for the rest of the game despite being heavily suspected and people wondering why he isnt dead

That's slightly more believable but not by much

[skitter30]

bv ur being very quiet and it's actually low-key disconcerting me

i shall now try to look at votecounts

I don't have much to add at this point. I made my decision and I was right. Just waiting for you and Keyser to make yours. I asked if you wanted to talk in real time and you said you were thinking aloud so I'm just letting you solve. If you were expecting like a case on errant/towncase on me, I did these already last DP. Errant hasn't said anything in response.

Fair enough!

[skitter30]

will respond tonight, I have a final

Good luck!

[skitter30]

Nauci on the other hand hard-townreads skitter but I found it really curious that she never asks skitter why she's townreading me or scumreading Irrelephant. She's just going along with her convenient reads of me-scum and Irrelephant-town while continuing to go on about how mind-meld she and skitter have been. If Nauci was town, there would at least be a "why are you townreading BV?" I don't feel like she's listening to both viewpoints to make a decision but just sheeping Irrelephant because that's the convenient read.

picking up on this is incredibly townie too given nauci's results at that stage

[skitter30]

bv i'm really just getting the vibe that you want to push this lynch through?

Yeah, I want to push N_M through. Maybe I'm not playing completely optimally by not going through an extensive analysis of clearing Gustavo before I do it. I think it's ridiculous people are actually voting me over him and I'd hate to give this scumteam a free mislynch on me even if they wind up losing.

I haven't read the game closely enough to see what the context is. But N_M's posts here just gave me the impression that he knows he's caught and the game is done so might as well get lynched and move onto the next one.

Is there anyone I should be seriously considering outside of N_M?

pushign the nm lynch through is still low-key bothering me tho

[skitter30]

2926 - This is the strongest towntell that I referred to earlier. Rask gave both of them an out by asking Errant if he was claiming TheWorst's result for him. Errant immediately confirms that it's not and revotes TheWorst. The "panic" that he was referring to earlier also feels genuine. That it all happened in a minute is another reason.

i'm now thinking that the 'panic' is that they thought bernie saw through their plan

[skitter30]

also looking back a lot of what i was townreading ep yesterday for was kinda AtE

and i'm really bad at reading that

like bv's kinda town in a holistic sense and ep has a few pockets of incredible towniness and then large swaths of NAI-ness

[skitter30]

I think I've said most of what I wanted to say on Errant so just waiting on Keyser and Skitter at this point. (Hope you feel better btw skitter).

One thing I wanted to point out though is to not underestimate what scum are capable of regarding neighborhoods. In a game I modded, I gave scum a neighborizer. He neighborized his partner and had a detailed 2-page conversation with him before he neighborized a townie. It was all really authentic-sounding. Here's the link. If scum can fake that level of neighborhood planning, I wouldn't put it past even an average scum player to post an authentic sounding "paraphrase" of a fake conversation.

i actually think it's harder to paraphrase a convo that didn't happen than to go through the motions of having an actual conversation

[skitter30]

like bv's kinda town in a holistic sense and ep has a few pockets of incredible towniness and then large swaths of NAI-ness

ok this is basically where i'm at

i think i'm voting ep, but i think he should have a chance to say what he wants to after his final because it could just be he had a very busy few days. that's probably a generous read of the situation but eh studying for finals can be kinda stressful and eat up large chunks of time and i can understand lylo not being a super high priority in that real-life context, and i can say from experience that getting hammered in lylo on the last day of finals week to lose the game when i hadn't slept in like three days before really having a chance to post kinda sucks

so basically i'll wait till tomorrow at some point to give him a chance to say his piece

i also think i want to check his voting patterns in past games if i get around to finding them

[skitter30]

Ok this actually isnt hammer because keyser hasn't voted but

VOTE: errant

Overall I just think bv is townier in a holistic sense

Bv if you're actually scum here I'm like never going to be able confidentially read you again lol

Ep, if you're town, sorry

If you're scum - you played an incredibly good game and like the way you interacted with tw during the neighborhood/guilty thing felt town af so that's actually really impressive.

Also I wish you luck on your final, what's it in?

Also I've kinda had the vibe for a while now that you weren't really enjoying this game and I hope I didn't like super contribute to that

[skitter30]

Also, TheWorst claiming after I said I was leaving for work is actually pretty clearing for me because it only makes sense if he wanted a townie lynched with minimal resistance as opposed to wanting to theater it up with a buddy. (He couldn't have done it just so I look good obviously because the intent would have been my lynch, not his own. Rask's result caused his plan to fail.)

I'd have to go back and look at the timestamps but tbf to duckling he's in Australia so hed be getting up around the time you head to work I think so idk if this is like malicious on his part

I do however remember ep having a post noting that tw was online and ignoring our requests that he out the result tho

Also they didn't have daytalk at this point so idk if they'd have been able to coordinate that super well

[skitter30]

Gah I think keyser is in some non-american timezone and he tends to post late at night and early morning for those of us in PST (all 3 of us it looks like) so I wont know the result till i wake up tomorrow probably

[skitter30]

I know

But bv tends to be around late in PST and I think hed just say if he won as scum after ep got hammered

And have a great night!

[skitter30]

ep, in case ur wondering, the main reasons why i'm voting you now are:

1. bv is just townier in a holistic sense

2. i feel like for the past couple of days you've sorta taken a back seat and have just been letting mislynches happen without really being around that much. i acknowledge that this might be an irl/motivation/enjoyment thing but it's kinda at odds with the one scumread you were fairly confident on - tw; overall i kinda got the vibe that you were comfortable being confident about tw (and mom) to a certain extent because you knew they'd flip scum

3. the hammer-test via self vote in mylo is just icky and i don't really see that coming from a town mindset

4. i feel like you've just kinda resigned yourself ot being the mylo lynch a few days back and that you're just letting it happen (tbf this might not be ai, idk)

5. a lot of the things i was townreading you for yesterday in retrospect were kinda ate and rereading them now i don't get those town vibes really

6. i feel like using the 'i'm not going to defend myself in lylo because it will seem disingenuous' line is kinda disingenuous itself

[skitter30]

Yay!

This game was really fun!

Tw and ep, you guys did a really good job with the guilty thing - from a townie perspective, that was incredibly confusing and made ep look very very town. When did you guys even come up with that?

Like ep, the way you interacted with tw there felt super organic and townie as fuck

Also, nauci, your choice of night targets was awesome - if irrelephant and keyser werent clear, i absolutely would have voted either over ep either day5 or day6

Brass, thanks for modding; again, youre like my favorite mod

Bv idk why it took so long to townread you - it finally, finally clicked a couple of days ago irl

[skitter30]

Nauci was talking about modding a reuinion game in the dead thread. I hope that happens. Other than one player I didn't enjoy much, this was the most fun playerlist I think I've played with so far. Also, at Key, sorry I suspected you, I suck.

@Errant - you're a god at scum, don't know how you pulled this off for as long as you did but it was amazing and you deserve massive props for how far you got.

That would be fun! This playerlist was awesome and i really enjoyed playing with you guys

And seconded @ep

[skitter30]

This was prob one of my favorite games on site so again, thanks everyone!

[skitter30]

Also ep i hope ur fonal went well!

[skitter30]

*final

[skitter30]

I think that even compared to, say, 2017 or 2016, the ideas of what is scummy, how to play, how to scumhunt, etc. have all shifted in noticeable ways and the site meta has evolved quite interestingly, I think that's really exciting

Id be interested to hear more about this

[skitter30]

I thought that if I could just clear the 2 slots that Skitter would be most paranoid about, we'd be golden.

this majorly contributed to the win i think

like i said above, i would have pushed for irrelephant or keyser over ep based on my reads

[skitter30]

very much want to read all the pts lol

[skitter30]

i mentioned yesterday maybe - but ep's slot looked really, really really good via vca (especially since nsg was voting mom with tw for a while), until i realized that he voted almost nobody *besdies* scum

[skitter30]

nauci i'd join but i'm slightly overgamed + i pre-inned for a couple of other games (including brass's!) so i'm going to pass for now but i'm sure you'll be an awesome mod!!!!