Open 731: Twin Trap (Game Over)

[GameNBurger]

If you’re TPR and get outer likr you did, scum will come after you in the night anyways

True, but then they don't know which TPR they're killing and thus do not know which of the, should make the NK

This I was aware of also, that’s where the 1/14 (now correctly 1/12) chance to find scum comes from

[GameNBurger]

Potentially there the scenario where you really are town and are hoping the other detective can catch the scum making your kill but that’s 1/14 chance of that happening and those odds are slim AND they’re one shot, once scum shoot you they now know which guy to send to kill after that one night

7% is already significantly higher than 0%. And your odds are based on random play. I think the real odds are higher than 1/14th

Given that I didn’t major as an actuarian AND we don’t know who the other TPR is (and therefore can’t sus out their ability to assess other players)we really can’t determine their ability to do their job

Thus I feel pretty confident in saying it’s 1/12 chance

However this is all moot since I see your point that that is better than a zero percent chance

[Eragon]

TT-{Toranaga, Fromage}
T-{Burger, Wh4t}
Scum overall-{poseidon, Egg, buJaber, A50}
Scum leaning-{BuJaber, A50}

[Fromage]

And if that’s happening we really need to lynch Tor since we shouldn’t force out any claims more than we’ve already done

I don't get why you now agree with A50. You had no qualms hammering me. Why have you changed your mind?

SO FROMAGE: will you fullclaim day 2?

Let's talk on day 2 what to do then. Now is not the right time for it. If a majority of players want me to fullclaim, I will do so.

[Fromage]

Hey Eragon, Why do you seem to believe my claim?

[Almost50]

@GnB: We can drop the subject for today and talk about it tomorrow. YOU are 100% going to make it through the night EVEN if that was a fakeclaim. The way the game is shaping no scum in their right mind would shoot you over at least 4 other slots

[Almost50]

Hey Eragon, Why do you seem to believe my claim?

Because you're not his scum buddy!

[Eragon]

Hey Eragon, Why do you seem to believe my claim?

why would i not?

we have 2 town PR's, so you have a 2/9 chance of being true just from randing.

but also other things, i dont like that you were slacking and seemingly cherry-picking a few things, and i for one never slack as PR, but i guess i can see it as a strategy to hide yourself.

i believe your claim until there is reason not to

[Eragon]

Hey Eragon, Why do you seem to believe my claim?

Because you're not his scum buddy!

VOTE: A50

[Fromage]

why would i not?

Because we said that we won't lynch a claimed PR. So claiming a TPR guarantees scum to survive day-1. Isn't this obvious?

VOTE: Eragon

[Eragon]

but why would i not beleive a TPR claim??

and why are you pushing me but not the other people that believed your claim?

and i also explained it more than just "Why would i not" so that intensifes the cherry-picking

[Almost50]

@GnB & @Poseidon: I need you two to cote Eragon or give reason not to.

[Fromage]

but why would i not beleive a TPR claim??

Because there's a 2/9 chance as well I randed scum. If you were scum would you claim VT or a TPR?

and why are you pushing me but not the other people that believed your claim?

Because they didn't vote me in the first place or they explicitly told me not to claim (wh4t).

[Eragon]

but why would i not beleive a TPR claim??

Because there's a 2/9 chance as well I randed scum. If you were scum would you claim VT or a TPR?

and why are you pushing me but not the other people that believed your claim?

Because they didn't vote me in the first place or they explicitly told me not to claim (wh4t).

again, there is more reasons than "why wouldnt i bleieve"

READ THE WHOLE FUCKING POST

and also did your forget about tor and poseidon on your wagon? that both voted you.
and the fact that poseidon was the last one on your wagon naked voting

[Fromage]

I read your post. Did you read my posts? I pushed poseidon. Yes he was the last one voting me but had talked about it previously. 592
Do you scumread him for his vote?

[Eragon]

his post about voting you was pretty much

" i dont like inactivity votes but maybe. it might work but maybe not"

and i also talked about voting you, did i not?

i dont SR him for voting you because i agreed with the vote, i think the wagon was mostly pure, with at MAX one scum

[Wh4t]

Eragon asked me to unvote Inferno (now Wh4t). This doesn't make me feel comfortable calling Wh4t town. Then again, maybe Inferno being stubborn about not claiming gave Eragon the impression he might be a VT? I wouldn't make that assumption myself if I was Eragon, but maybe he did and maybe Wh4t is town. *Shrug*

I'm concerned you're not strong townreading me by now A50. Also, the PR speculation here is weird in that I wouldn't expect a townie to think about my likelihood of being a PR and then to bring it up unprompted as a reason to shade Eragon, when I haven't claimed. You seem to be thinking from the POV of scum here.

[Wh4t]

Eragon why do you townread Burger?

[Poseidon]

Still waiting for why Eragon is an SR,

Fromage

[Almost50]

Eragon asked me to unvote Inferno (now Wh4t). This doesn't make me feel comfortable calling Wh4t town. Then again, maybe Inferno being stubborn about not claiming gave Eragon the impression he might be a VT? I wouldn't make that assumption myself if I was Eragon, but maybe he did and maybe Wh4t is town. *Shrug*

I'm concerned you're not strong townreading me by now A50. Also, the PR speculation here is weird in that I wouldn't expect a townie to think about my likelihood of being a PR and then to bring it up unprompted as a reason to shade Eragon, when I haven't claimed. You seem to be thinking from the POV of scum here.

I'm speculating about what might have gone through Eragon's mind not mine. This "speculation" is the reason I'm not locking you as scum when he does flip scum.

Put another way, I can't find a reason for Scum!Eragon to "lighten up" on Inferno before he got a claim out of him, so you should be next when he flips scum... UNLESS he thought Inferno was VT by play or meta...

[Wh4t]

O_O'

[GameNBurger]

I feel like if Eragon is scum then I’m wrong about all my reads

But it might in fact be pogoing

I don’t see why I shouldn’t talk about what should happen with claiming

With what I’ve proposed scum get no way of interfering just by mentioning it unlike your talk of how scum should claim and how town should counterclaim A50

TO FROMAGE
Things changed when you claimed a TPR, running up any more claims past two starts to really tilt things in scum’s fashion
I think getting a third claim day 1 is just too much

As for you

I’ll reiterate again I don’t trust the blanket claim but See the strategy behind it. If you promise to claim tomorrow I will move my vote to Tor

Otherwise I’ll put my vote on you because blanket claiming like that is in no way a town move and here’s why
So tomorrow is the day before lylo
Waiting for lylo to claim leaves scum a strat of counterclaiming and hoping for a coin flip victory and if you’re town chances are your lurker ass , and that’s even if you make it
But if you claim the day before lylo and it draws out a counterclaim possibly, town can afford to take the gamble (and then save ourselves from lylo the next day if things go bad)
That’s IF you make it tomorrow or even lylo
So I’m gonna need you to promise a full claim

And don’t think about appealing to democracy to avoid strategy

[Eragon]

Eragon why do you townread Burger?

Well he’s certainly never scum with anyone but you

Those “association” lists with every single chance of inferno buddy never comes from scum knowing inferno is town, becuase then all that energy is wasted and nothing happens

His posts feel natural and just some of the things he’s done ping me as town

The reason why it’s possible he is scum with you is because he might’ve done the “association” stuff knowing that you will flip scum and it could help give him towncred and an easy push for a mis-lynch or 2 in the next few days

[Eragon]

I finished my reread and have a

completely

different view of the game now. I think scum are in Eragon/Fromage/Poseidon (in that order).

VOTE: Eragon

Eragon has been doing some townie stuff indeed, but taking a look at the bigger picture they seem to have been done for show. He often tried to feed the fire (especially on the Inferno/Manatee slots) but stayed uncommitted (by vote) for most of the time. If you take his posts separately you will probably TR him for each single one of them, but combined they didn't give the same impression. Also 377 for example is scummy enough on it's own.


I know this one's gonna be met by some strong opposition by many who have been TRing Eragon hard, and while I have played him before I do not have a strong meta on him either, so this is a read based purely on his play/posts in this thread.

If this flips scum then the cross voting with Fromage feels off. However, Poseidon being totally unavailable if late gives me the irks too.

P-edit: Oh, well. Tor caught me red handed. What can I do? *Shrug*

Ok, so I’ve been towny.
I have tried to feed the fire. Is his bad?
I have stayed uncommitted by vote. I have had a vote set ever since manatee early D1, when I turned it serious
377, ok, ye, but Idrc becuase is rather die in this game than keep moving on

[Eragon]

Eragon asked me to unvote Inferno (now Wh4t). This doesn't make me feel comfortable calling Wh4t town. Then again, maybe Inferno being stubborn about not claiming gave Eragon the impression he might be a VT? I wouldn't make that assumption myself if I was Eragon, but maybe he did and maybe Wh4t is town. *Shrug*

I'm concerned you're not strong townreading me by now A50. Also, the PR speculation here is weird in that I wouldn't expect a townie to think about my likelihood of being a PR and then to bring it up unprompted as a reason to shade Eragon, when I haven't claimed. You seem to be thinking from the POV of scum here.

I'm speculating about what might have gone through Eragon's mind not mine. This "speculation" is the reason I'm not locking you as scum when he does flip scum.

Put another way, I can't find a reason for Scum!Eragon to "lighten up" on Inferno before he got a claim out of him, so you should be next when he flips scum... UNLESS he thought Inferno was VT by play or meta...

What the fucking hell do you mean I didn’t want inferno to claim????