Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[Irrelephant11]

sigh

[Kokichi Oma]

Well then. That's interesting. I say no one choose yet.

[Prof Fridays]

I say we choose 3. It can't be bad twice! #infalliblelogic

[Chickadee]

Oh that was a rollercoaster. I was initially town reading Pine for the first pick. The game was stalling, and I liked that he stepped forward. But a second pick, that was nerve-wrecking while I was catching up.

I would seriously consider voting Pine tonight.



Catching up there was a post where I was starting to get suspicious of irrelephant11.

Spoiler: This one, just so it's in my ISO

Gosh I was going to put so much sorting work in today

Did you know two right/wrong answers ends the day???

I'm disregarding it for now, because day didn't end, but upon catching up, this struck me as knowing the day would end. It came off as very fake. It feels like there's confidence behind this statement.


Pedit: @Prof Fridays I say we don't pick anything immediately, so people have time to recoup and talk.

[Chickadee]

I say we choose 3. It can't be bad twice! #infalliblelogic

Also that's reeeeeaaaaalllly bad logic. It's randomized. The more I think about it, I really don't like this post.

[Irrelephant11]

321

Ok some quick comments before the deadline.

Firstly, this is a super annoying and not fun challenge.
---
Chickadee
I still can't quite figure out what she is doing. I do feel some sincerity for when she screwed up the count ... I mean, everyone else has been super careful with their posting. I also disliked her early interaction where she stated she didn't read the rules and called out some of the strategies we had discussed. I don't know if it is scummy, but it is definitely anti-town.
---

{snip}

---

I feel like there may have been one scum hanging around in the chaos of counting, giggling as multiple people tried to post and throwing p-edits everywhere (i.e. KO mainly, but also teacher/chickadee/elephant)

{snip}

Literally no clue what enigma is trying to say here about chickadee. Reads like "I'm gonna scumread her later, but not yet"

{snip}

Looking through the votes, Pine's and Mylo's explanations rub off on me the wrong way, and to a degree ofrhz. I feel their justification came off as weak and uncommitted. Whilst we (myself included) would naturally tend to associate those with lengthy and in-depth explanations as more pro-town, I would also be a bit cautious with this since it is an appearance you can easily make.

{snip}

{snip}

{snip}

Continuing reading, the one I'm kinda becoming unsure about is Chickadee. I felt on day 1 she played the sorry/pity card, yeh ok, we bought it then. She knew she was very unlikely to get lynched. The last will just feels a bit ehhhh as she continues to play that card. She said she regrets not pushing her scum reads, then comments on D2 that she doesn't have any reads or feels like sharing them (isn't this how you push scum reads??)

And I see on the next page GL makes the same connection ahaha.

Scum reads are used for pressure. The voting here is a bit different, but where you don't share scum reads then how do you expect to get pressure and discussion to validate/refute your scum reads?

Oh I'm caught up. Are we all agreed on sharing last wills? Do you all want to see the meme that I put for my last will? It's pretty lame ahaha

Bit disappointed by the challenge. Suppose town's best bet just for a good town read to randomly pick something (though not provable), our chances of winning are still shit. Alternatively, if a null or weak town read did successfully randomly pick the correct number, this would add (some) town credit and be helpful for forming a town block (useful considering the fortunate mechanics).

Says he's "becoming unsure" which, again, is a non-committal scumread. Also says he dislikes her will

{snip}

I thought some more about Chickadee, and it occurred to me that scum could be concerned about pretending to post their last will, since pretending to break a rule is as bad as actually doing it. I'm still leaning town, though the read is not strong.

{snip}

Regarding chickadee and the rules, I wouldn’t read into that and player-mod interactions. I once gave others town credit for people asking questions in the public thread about scum mechanics and how this worked with rules. I thought - ohh scum would just ask that in their scum PT, especially since it benefits town more with this clarity, so proba town. I was wrong lol.

Then he suggests Chickadee shouldn't be scumread for asking the mod

mmm Maybe I misread this? Still, basically he's saying here "don't townread chickadee for this" which is unnecessary given that he's scumreading Chickadee and enigma is saying scum!Chickadee might have done what she did. Just feels like he's bringing up chickadee for the sake of it, here, since he's not saying anything new.

@chickadee
Town reads scum reads same deal. Useless if you don’t push them.
If I start pushing you as a scum read for lack of game solving and reluctance to scum/town hunt, what’s your read on me?

Basically the one thing that does suggest it's not SvS

I agree he's in a dangerous spot for town if he's scum

also this might be true

but let me just tell you that I'm in a dangerous spot for scum because I'm town

@NSG and @Irrelephant, what do you guys think of Enigma? attacking Chickadee here is what I would expect scum in his position to do if he doesn't want to go after more active/difficult mislynch targets. He's a scumread I feel better about as I reread his ISO. and NSG if you're on the scum!ofrhz train then I see an associative there as Enigma has never commented on ofrhz and ofrhz has responded to a few of Enigma's NAI posts (D1 is boring, plan for the challenge) and then gave him a casual townread in 414.

Why just NSG and Irrelephant?
So you think Chickadee is a mislynch? Why would you so confidently think that, then make the deduction that I'm scum based on that?
Isn't active and difficult mislynch target contradictory (i.e. everyone is one and/or the other...)?

Seems overly concerned in this quote and in another one about being tied to chickadee's flip. Like, this question isn't bad on its own, but he asks this again below

also here's my current updated thoughts

ultimately I don't think NSG making a townread on Mylo being similar to her past scum!townread on scum-partner-ofrhz is strongly indicative - it's a good thing to note and consider if we get late in the game and probability of scum!NSG is much higher, but I think it's more likely NSG makes a meta townread like that as either alignment, is town here, and simply managed to effectively emulate something she'd do as town in that scumgame. However, I also think Feysal coming in with this angle is good evidence for him being town as well.

I still think ofrhz is a good candidate for scum

I think one of Chickadee/Enigma is likely to be scum. Chickadee still isn't really engaging with much and her turnaround on Prof Fridays based off of solely ofrhz's post is a bit weird. Enigma I have a hard time ruling out as scum but also have a hard time ruling him out as town. I think more discussion and reads from him would help me a lot here.

Third scum is a bit of a mystery, could be someone deep wolfing. I think I'm actually starting to get a liiiiitle bit paranoid of Irrelephant but I don't think that's paranoia worth indulging in until we get some more flips and day phases in. If Chick is town, maybe Prof Fridays, but the push on PF from ofrhz is worth looking further into if we get a ofhrz scumflip.

Why is it an chickadee or myself? I've had limited interactions with her, apart from a small push on her reluctance to scum hunting or game-solve (which I was not the only one to do).
Why does one rule out/confirm the other?

Why just NSG and Irrelephant?
So you think Chickadee is a mislynch? Why would you so confidently think that, then make the deduction that I'm scum based on that?
Isn't active and difficult mislynch target contradictory (i.e. everyone is one and/or the other...)?

because they're actively posting townreads who were both around at that time and I feel we're trying to work together today. I trust their opinions more than most players in the game at the moment.

I think Chickadee could be a mislynch, but I also still think she could be scum - I'm trying to see both angles of the gamestate here in scum!Chickadee and town!Chickadee world. It should be pretty clear from my posting both D1 and D2 that I don't "confidently" think she's a mislynch, though I think currently with a gun to my head I would say she's town.

Don't follow the third question - people who post a lot and show a willingness to argue and throw down generally tend to be harder to lynch and so they are harder mislynch targets if they are town.

I think one of Chickadee/Enigma is likely to be scum. Chickadee still isn't really engaging with much and her turnaround on Prof Fridays based off of solely ofrhz's post is a bit weird. Enigma I have a hard time ruling out as scum but also have a hard time ruling him out as town. I think more discussion and reads from him would help me a lot here.

Your chickadee read has evolved quite a bit from .... in just 6 posts. First post reads as a maybe maybe/null, more likely to be town lean, and then just 6 posts later you sound much more suspect of her as a likely scum ...
that's one quick reversal

Then he brings up that Guilty's reads have been shifting quickly, which is true for like half of Guilty's reads, but he only brings up Chickadee. Why does it bother him that Guilty's read on chickadee now matches his own? Why are more than half his D2 posts at this point about chickadee?

223

Handing off - I won't be around much today, I'll be at work and Wednesdays are usually busy. If that's not the case I may pop in for a bit. I would be ok lynching in lurkers and empty posters. (Mylo, Random, Feysal)

Curious why this didn't include enigma at the time...

This will probably dig my grave a bit, but if I was scum I would want to coast through this game (as I'm currently doing now ). They have very little pressure of death and can easily slip under the radar by just counting and not really contributing.

...Especially since enigma himself had already said this.

@chickadee
Town reads scum reads same deal. Useless if you don’t push them.
If I start pushing you as a scum read for lack of game solving and reluctance to scum/town hunt, what’s your read on me?

Annoyed, but it gives you town points.

I'm not trying to keep anything to myself here. I just don't have anything to share.

Why does enigma saying you're scummy/playing badly earn him townpoints? When others have suggested the same you have often pushed back

Town reading Guilty, Enigma, NSG, and Friday to varying degrees . That's about where I am at the moment. Still looking things through.


I still think we should pick someone soon, like halfway through our self-set time limit (which I like btw) to pick the first number. That way we have time to assess, and it's not just immediately the end of the day. My first nom would go to irrelephant11, for being so widely town read. Thoughts?

And that's apparently enough to fit enigma into her townreads? She'd never suggested enigma is towny before this.


Thoughts?
Am I reading too much into this?
I definitely feel like it's odd that enigma is so chickadee-focused this game day, especially since most other players have literally been talking around her and most players are focused on other lynches.
What's happening here?

pedit: chickadee prof Fridays is clearly joking
Also that post of mine had a curse word in place of "gosh", but like I said I don't like to curse (as either alignment, you can meta me and check I have a reputation for politeness even when upset). When I posted it I also noticed that the tone was odd because of that word switch. Idk if that affects your read at all but there it is

[northsidegal]

i scumread chickadee more for apparently catching up but not posting before the number being revealed

will try to explain more later

[Chickadee]

Why does enigma saying you're scummy/playing badly earn him townpoints? When others have suggested the same you have often pushed back

Enigma saying it was more passive. I actually do give some town point for others pushing me, it was just a more involved interaction. I feel like Enigma asking me this was more straight forward and to the point. Others actually gave me something to push back against.

Also that post of mine had a curse word in place of "gosh", but like I said I don't like to curse (as either alignment, you can meta me and check I have a reputation for politeness even when upset). When I posted it I also noticed that the tone was odd because of that word switch. Idk if that affects your read at all but there it is

The use of the curse word had no affect on me reading the post this way. At the time, no one knew which way the number would go. But you seemed to be using definite phrases, rather than worried phrases. It just struck me as odd. I've decided not to read further into it at the moment though, because it did not turn out to be the case. More than anything, I just wanted it in my ISO because it was something that really stuck out in my mind.

i scumread chickadee more for apparently catching up but not posting before the number being revealed

will try to explain more later

Can you explain the timing more clearly? Maybe I'm not understanding the issue you're seeing. I literally just got here. It was revealed as I was catching up.

[Kokichi Oma]

I think pine might be town. This is annoying.

[Kokichi Oma]

I see no reason for him as scum to choose the right number and not just give us the 1/9th chance of winning.

[Irrelephant11]

At the time, no one knew which way the number would go. But you seemed to be using definite phrases, rather than worried phrases.

Oh, I get it. Yeah nvm about word choice then

[Kokichi Oma]

I think I'm fine with pine just choosing the last at this point. But not until we figure out a lynch

[Kokichi Oma]

I think Prof is a good lynch still

[Enigma]

Fuck it. Rolled a d3 on my dice app. It’s random luck and I don’t trust anyone as much as I trust myself.

Choose: 3

It just needed to be done. The only ones not in the dark here are scum, and we aren't obligated to elect someone to guess. Why would I trust anyone other than myself when no one has a clue?

I related with this so much rn.
--

VOTE: Pine

This is terrible.
--

Pine


you prolly just ended the day and ensured your own lynch

I commend you for trying to sort out a way to approach this challenge, but as we've previously mentioned - this is statistically against town and even townreads are at the mercy of random.

[Enigma]

There’s no WIFOM there. The odds are super stacked against us - I don’t recall how to do mathematical combinations, but even without the presence of bad actors, our odds of success are <40%. With a bad guess down, our odds are down to 1/9 (I think). I’m not willing to reduce those odds further by letting someone I don’t trust (in this case all of you) sink our chances further. Case in point:

Choose: 1

The WIFOM of you selecting correctly the 2nd one hurts

[Enigma]

Tbh, I think it would be interesting to see how the votes turn out tonight if it wasn't coordinated beforehand like D1. We have a fortunate at play already. It is easy for scum to jump on a wagon (mislynch or not), make some believable reasoning and blend in with everyone else. Furthermore, scum will have to coordinate to push a mislynch not knowing how rest of town will vote, so we can see associatives there.

[Enigma]

I say we choose 3. It can't be bad twice! #infalliblelogic

Also that's reeeeeaaaaalllly bad logic. It's randomized. The more I think about it, I really don't like this post.

Oh that was a rollercoaster. I was initially town reading Pine for the first pick. The game was stalling, and I liked that he stepped forward. But a second pick, that was nerve-wrecking while I was catching up.

I would seriously consider voting Pine tonight.



Catching up there was a post where I was starting to get suspicious of irrelephant11.

Spoiler: This one, just so it's in my ISO

Gosh I was going to put so much sorting work in today

Did you know two right/wrong answers ends the day???

I'm disregarding it for now, because day didn't end, but upon catching up, this struck me as knowing the day would end. It came off as very fake. It feels like there's confidence behind this statement.


Pedit: @Prof Fridays I say we don't pick anything immediately, so people have time to recoup and talk.

So I had slight scum read Chickadee for most of today. These posts sound quite off, I particularly dislike the first two paras of 1128. Though the irrelephant comment is a bit on the opposite - more townie. So ugh, still debating.

[Pine]

Enigma's waffling and refusal to commit to a position in those posts puts me off. It's the exact kind of middle-of-the-road, inoffensive posting I try to do as scum. Almost as if they're trying to appeal to everyone on divisive issues (my actions, Chickadee) while not pissing anyone off.

Flashwagon on Enigma?

[Enigma]

Read it as you want, just putting my thoughts as I read through out there. Everyone had a different meta.

Though if you wanted to start a wagon, you could at least comment on my 1140 about how I think forming consensus town wagons for today is not informative for town.

[Kokichi Oma]

Tbh, I think it would be interesting to see how the votes turn out tonight if it wasn't coordinated beforehand like D1. We have a fortunate at play already. It is easy for scum to jump on a wagon (mislynch or not), make some believable reasoning and blend in with everyone else. Furthermore, scum will have to coordinate to push a mislynch not knowing how rest of town will vote, so we can see associatives there.

Um. What?

[Kokichi Oma]

In any way how does that help us at all

[Prof Fridays]

I say we choose 3. It can't be bad twice! #infalliblelogic

Also that's reeeeeaaaaalllly bad logic. It's randomized. The more I think about it, I really don't like this post.

You're right, you're right, it's 1 that's on a hot streak now. We should stick with it.


Townreading Enigma rn just because I relate to his thoughts here. I agree with the sentiments about Chickadee's posts being a bit...off, but I still think I prefer an ofhrz lynch today. Not sure why Kokichi is hell-bent on lynching me, though I can't say I scum-read him for it.

[GuiltyLion]

Irrelephant I agree Enigma/Chickadee interactions are weird but I think most of the scumminess is on Enigma's side

I still don't feel like he's given me like a holistic assessment of who he thinks is town and who he thinks is scum, he's just trying to chop up townreads on a variety of players

I'm skimming along at work but haven't had time to think a lot yet so I'll give more detail and thought tonight, but I do want to call out something from PF just now though

I don't understand Feysal's being in most people's town block - he's a slight scum read for me, as is Kokichi, with ofhrz as lean scum (and my lynch target of choice today, I think)

Not sure why Kokichi is hell-bent on lynching me, though I can't say I scum-read him for it.

what changed with respect to Kokichi here?

[Prof Fridays]

Not sure if anything changed, really. I might move Kokichi to null-scum perhaps. I was more saying that Kokichi's being hell-bent on lynching me isn't necessarily scum-indicative per se. If ofhrz flips scum, I would be much more suspicious of him, however. But, really, not much has changed with respect to Kokichi, maybe just my thinking about him.

[Prof Fridays]

My reads are pretty fluid, as you'll find out, if you haven't already.