In post 3570, the worst wrote:Oh sorry I forgot scum!DV would never lie about that MY BAD
I feel like Scum!DV would probably not reveal his loved modifier at all if it held up in LYLO. Between that and the low likelihood of a mod giving scum a loved modifier that also applies in LYLO, I feel like the extra concern is unnecessary. But as you said, im also biased I guess :/
A named visiting role in a game with multiple role that have night action modification (delay, combine, or redirect). Since the fruit vendor can simply ask who received the cat it could have acted as a quasi-investigative role in the event of an early game mass-claim.
I am going to sleep now, and I won't be waking up before timer is out.
So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy. But if this ends up defaulting to a no lynch after a two week day cycle, it's safe to say I'm /outing as soon as the night phase begins. That's not meant to be an ultimatum for Espeonage, since I'm not even sure he's going to log in to see it.
Anyway, I hate to inflict 144 pages of this thread to some poor replace-in. I'm not sure if this game is even winnable. I know Errant had like, proposed a draw at one point. I wouldn't be opposed to that since apparently even two weeks isn't enough time to actually get this town to vote someone.
On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.
Anyway here's necessary info for a replace in.
Roleclaims for easy reference. (sorry about including all the nonsense with the worst but it's a pretty big part of why I was voting him so I include it for reference)
Spoiler:
Shoshin claims bulletproof:
In post 2653, Shoshin wrote:Maybe I didn't die because of role, not sure. I'm a ranking immune townie, which I thought meant I couldn't die from rankings but apparently it might extend to all roles based on rankings.
Guacamole claims connector who did not target the worst/pun last night, even though the worst was connected to Punreader:
In post 3112, guacamole wrote:So the funny thing is, I didn't target anyone last night.
Someone else has a similar role?
TW and punreader have some other kind of communication?
punreader was testing me and TW decided to go along?
punreader and TW are both lying?
In post 3138, guacamole wrote:N3 I targeted punreader and Maria. If that doesn't take effect until D4 and the messages pass N4, then the N3 targeting of Maria was redirected onto TW.
Why? After calming down and reading the situation his actions made sense. Claiming a fake BP makes sense as town. So I thinks Puns town now.
Also his vig was very conditional. Mine less so. I'm a novice vig.
In post 2008, Vaxkiller wrote:OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf
Punreader basically claiming SK:
In post 665, Punreader wrote:I have content to respond to, which I will in circa 12 hours.
DO NOT END THE DAY BEFORE I CAN EXPLAIN WHY I AM DOING THIS AND GIVE RESPONSES TO THE RESPONSES TO MY READS.
Claim: Conditional Bulletproof/Conditional Vigilante; the conditions are inverses.
I actually lied.
I DO have a conditional bulletproof, but it only protects me from those who are ranked HIGHER; I was aiming for an ungated Vig, with the illusion of being bp.
To explain, I can kill people ranked lower than I am, but they can kill me; I can't kill people ranked higher than me, but they can't kill me.
The cat thing is just a fruit vendor role. It doesn’t do anything else. I generally targeted people whose alignment I was very unsure of/people I felt I could interact with as a way of possibly using it to assist in reading how people reacted to the cat nuzzling. At first I thought Shepard might be town because of how they openly suspected me despite knowing that I sent them a cat (I would have expected scum to buddy with me more in that circumstance) but obviously this didn’t hold up for very long.
Targeted Shoshin N2, Krazy N3, the worst N4. Assumed that he’d received the cat when he posted a meow at daystart but it seems not?
The loved part is that it takes one extra vote to lynch me if it’s not LYLo/MYLO which I think is not compatible with a scum role??
I am a two-shot befriender, which is a stupid fucking name for a very swingy and hard to play role. I found it very stressful and did not like replacing in to this slot tbh.
It has three mechanics.
1 -- It combines your vote with someone else the next day
2 -- It denies BOTH of your next night actions
3 -- It makes all night actions the next night target both of you
When I shot DV, I did so on the hope that if he was scum I would A) prevent a badhammer in near-lylo, and b) prevent a nightkill on myself, since he would know he would be taking me down with him.
Chara apparently shot Maria, which he thought was null at the time I guess, which seems incredibly risky since he both blocked one of her joat shots and also risked generating a free scum double kill. But whatever, wasn't my choice.
I was VERY INSISTENT that the worst claim first, since if he claimed targeting me OR DV last night, that would have effectively CONFIRMED BOTH OF OUR ROLES. I NEVER mentioned the third consequence of my night action so there is no way he could have anticipated this and it would have been a very hard confirmation.
When I started thinking DV might be town, this is also why I was worried I gamethrew by targeting him when I did, which is why I also said I was commuting him, to hopefully avoid a free scum double kill.
In terms of FLAVOR, which I thought the worst was saying he cops, I also noticed that the image used did not match the avatar of the player it is based on, which I thought would be another way to hard confirm the worst if he had targeted me. (It's some pokemon shit, but the avatar of the player it's based on is that same pokemon shit but with glasses)
Summary: The worst's role is unconfirmable horseshit that dies today.
The worst's flavor cop fakeclaim:
In post 2948, the worst wrote:I'm a flavour cop of sorts--I don't get alignment indicative results tho.
Full details following those 3 fullclaims because my claim is actually a bit spicier that I thought it was.
(he is not a flavor cop)
The worst fakeclaim continued:
In post 2999, the worst wrote:I know for a fact at least one person is bullshitting about their role and actions right now.
also got one near full mechanical clear.
so fmpov anyone not willingly giving their full role here is basically claiming scum.
(he did not have proof anyone was bullshitting about their role)
The worst fakeclaim Part 3:
In post 3011, the worst wrote:I haven't fully claimed the nature of my results, and I will not since it almost clears someone else.
pedit: don't even try this bullshit, this is far too on-the-nose
(he could not clear anyone else)
The worst "real" claim:
In post 3042, the worst wrote:actually I changed my mind lmao
I've claimed privately to both Taly and Punreader it's not like I'm making shit up on the fly
I have results on:-
PenguinPower
Dunnstral
myself
Punreader
riddle over that
(total unconfirmable garbage)
The worst 'real' claim:
In post 3065, the worst wrote:I haven't asked for flavour claims dude. And where did you claim your role's mechanics?
I'm chevre--I can check players' positions in the scoring, but only whether they are higher or lower than my previous target. you all might have noticed my repeated insistence that we would find out if scum had been fucking with the rankings, and how much work I put into collating information originally.
Penguin < Dunnstral < myself > Punreader
I didn't really realize until Guac paired us up but I'm actually almost certain that my role's existence spews Pun as town.
Other relevant claim information:
In post 2079, MariaR wrote:Vax is my cop inno Shepard you vote me before you vote my inno.
Espeonage claims betting townie and the inverse of Dunn's role as stated here (except without neighborhood)
In post 888, Chara wrote:Chara
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Nahdia
Punreader
the worst
Shoshin
MariaR
Dunnstral
DeasVail
Espeonage
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
Vaxkiller
Pine
Srceenplay
i'm just upset about this list now with the night results. :<
But I'm not really happy with these as a reflection of my reads, and I regret having Lovebird and NicoRobin so low, but obviously that's affected by having the information that they are town so idk.
Anyway, I want rankings from everyone and ideally a bit of insight into your thought process behind the rankings.
From re-reading overnight, I'm back to being suspicious of the worst. MariaR remains a pretty big suspect for me, along with Espeonage. I also don't reallllly know what to think of PenguinPower but my suspicion was scum.
In post 891, Vaxkiller wrote:Vaxkiller
Pine
Nahdia
Fire Assassin
PenguinPower
Punreader
Srceenplay
DeasVail
the worst
Lovebird
Espeonage
Shoshin
Chara
Dunnstral
NicoRobin
MariaR
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Summary:
Vax has a cop inno in a setup with only a single one-shot cop for hard confirm, making him likely a true inno
The two dead scum made sure that Espeonage lost the bet. While they might not have thought he would die, it seems unlikely they would want to give up a free kill on Dunn.
DV's fruit vendor ability is cross-confirmed by me and Sho but there's no indication that this hard clears him.
Punreader has confirmed kills on Pine and Fire Assassin
That leaves us with the worst, guacamole, Shoshin. Since guac claimed he did not connect the worst, but the worst claimed he was connected, the current working theory is that guac lied about not connecting the worst.
There's 0 hard evidence that Sho is town but I'm inclined to think she's townyish. At some point this comes down to a straight gamble between Sho, guac, and the worst, and I chose to gamble on the worst, since his flavor cop fakeclaim seemed scummy and the rest of his play isn't very towny to me.
(6): Dunnstral, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail, Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3): Vaxkiller, Commander Shepard, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
Obviously you can look at Errant's iso for the full vote counts but these are the most significant. Day 3 ends in no lynch, day 4 ends in scum lynch. The worst is on Sho or not voting at the end of both day phases. Guac is on FA d3 (but alone), and on Sho on d4. DeasVail is on Maria at end of d3 (which is why I shot him and brought him back to C.Shep for d4), but my thoughts on DV during D4 was that he acted in a very similar manner to Maria. He never tested the vote and our vote actually didn't change through the day cycle. So it's not totally clear he even knew how the mechanic work, but if he was scum wouldn't he at least test it? Anyway that was my thought. Both Maria and DV looked at a forced combo vote and were like "well this seems fine" which strikes me as a towny response, particularly considering it resulted in a D4 scum lynch. For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.
Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.
Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.
Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.
There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.
Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.
You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.
Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.
That might be enough. Anyway, good luck guys, if this game is even still winnable after tonight.
I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
Vaxkiller is not anti-vaccine, he is a killer of Vax machines.
In post 3591, Vaxkiller wrote:I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.
I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.
I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.
My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)
My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.
However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked
higher
than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.
My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.
I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)
In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;
Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.
This means yes, I am fairly certain Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy. After all. With two kills you know there's pun left alive; you then have a choice: believe his punbuddy bussed him, or believe Espeonage is the punbuddy.
The options available to the town then are the following:
Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot but I'd strongly recommend the Espeonage lynch and can cite the worst's defense of him as proof.
Lynch someone else.
If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.
In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I
am
being forced to choose a side.
I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I
will
be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.
If you doubt that I was town-leaning from the onset, you need only look at my shot on Fire Assassin for proof of this.
I knew that Fire Assassin was, 100%, ranked below me.
Instead of going for the infection, I shot him.
Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I defended Commander Shepherd because I infected him and I wanted to keep my infections alive; most of my targets were players that I thought would be ranked above me, from Pine (I was surprised I vigged him; I was convinced I would infect him) to Shoshin to Commander Shepherd. (Frankly the main reason I didn't shoot ManWithNoName was because I knew he was ranked lower than me.) I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.
I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.) I also always was shooting punreads of mine. I genuinely believed Pine to be pun; I didn't think Commander Shepherd was pun but he asked me to shoot him and I had no reason not to oblige as it was convenient, but at the time I shot Shoshin I genuinely believed Shoshin to be pun.
If you know who I am then you also know how I treat 3p; I treat 3p as if they are town regardless of situation or circumstance. (You would also know that were I actually a serial killer I would never shoot, holstering the whole game, as I believe that to be optimal serial killer play in most situations.) So while I
have
been pursuing my wincon and some actions of mine are obviously proof of this, I have
also
been trying to help the town the whole game. Including yesterday; I was worried that I would be forced to punside if you made the wrong lynch.
I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
In post 3594, Punreader wrote:I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.
For clarity, I outlined this in the neighborhood thread which Errant was kind enough to leave open once I was the last member alive within.
And to explain, a lynch of DeasVail or Krazy would have forced me to shoot guacamole anyway, leaving the town with two pun alive plus myself. We'd lynch one of the pun, I'd be forced to target the other because the pun is the only player who wouldn't be nightkilled and thus guaranteed to be alive with the infect, and in 3p lylo I'd be forced to lynch the player not infected. (I put in the details of the math in there which you can see in postgame.)
Technically speaking the best lynch for me was guacamole, as that'd have freed me up to infect a player, and potentially even allow me to exit the game without me needing to choose the victor, but I couldn't find a way to believably push that as the best option. (I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)
