Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Well, mainly because I was never in a spot where my scumreads were reduced down to one before today. Even yesterday, I had more scumreads than townreads. I wouldn't even be humoring it at all if Wilky didn't strongly stick out from the brief VCA I did.
I still need to go more in depth on the few things that really stuck out to me, but it just makes a lot more sense to me that Wilky is the last scum compared to Dunnstral, albeit right now only because the way their votes move around looks a lot less sketchy on Dunnstral's side.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
My heart of hearts really wants to say that Wilky is the last scum, it just makes complete sense to me at this stage.
I don't think RMOJ-scum would push for Punreader the way he has, or really just about anything he's done today. It's a bizarre way to try to push the game since it wasn't particularly likely that Punreader would be lynched from it.
Prof Fridays is weirding me out a bit with the sudden sheep on me, but otherwise I don't think the slot is all that scummy. I think YT through and through was town enough to make up for Ramcius' weird play before that.
Punreader... eh, I really really think I'd be dead by now if they were scum, especially since we had two full day phases since the last scum lynch. I could see why Kaede would die over me (especially since if anyone would be able to pick up on why I'd die night five, it's probably her), but I doubt Alchemist would be dead here if Pun was scum. It's far too risky.
Dunnstral... I'm not sure. I don't think the MariaR action interaction is as strong as Punreader thinks it is, but there's not a whole lot that specifically suggests the slot is particularly scummy past whatever I was death tunneling him for on day two.
Wilky just makes sense as scum no matter how I look at it; now that I look at a bunch of stuff in day one, the interactions with MariaR look unnatural and his general play doesn't look town. I can see him being scum in the setup... kind of? I'm not strong enough in setup spec in setups this complex to really make a call on that. I think Wilky makes a lot of sense as a perpetrator for the slots that are dying this game (confirmed or confirmable PRs over direct play). When I look at the vote counts, he makes sense as scum in places that Dunnstral really doesn't, at least not as much.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Either way I'm like 90% confident in my townreads
I kind of don't want to attribute anything to this since it's kind of shitty and there's every possibility this wasn't the case, but it's kind of also hard to believe that YT would position himself around the confidence in the Kokichi lynch only to replace out as scum.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Anyways while I'm thinking of it
I will respond in kind if you go into a lot of the processes you analyze today, you're far better at doing that kind of thing without having direct input to work off of and this in general should hopefully be enough for us to lock each other's alignments
It would probably help me in general too because I find most of this game unreadable-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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this is a lieIn post 5761, Ankamius wrote:Can you go over day five specifically when you get a chance?
I'll respond to 5760 after work
I get distracted too easily-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Honestly, I read through the first half or so of it... and I didn't get a while lot more than that either
Wilky still looks by far the worst out of everybody thanks to the lurking
Dunnstral had zero presence
RMOJ had zero presence
YT-slot is basically locktown from how he handled the day
Punreader... idk-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
People on this site vastly overestimate conftown/obvtown status, that doesn't actually make them a bigger threat than any other player by itself. If you have enough mislynch targets and there's another player in the list you won't be able to mislynch and are the least likely to lynch your list, then they're a better kill than the conftowns-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Idk
Hopefully it's just wilky anyways or otherwise
In post 5746, Ankamius wrote:if Wilky is town, I'm probably going to sit in a corner somewhere and cry-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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yes but that's not entirely relevant unless scum are banking on town infightingIn post 5787, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE wrote:
it increases the rand chance of winning from 50% from 33%In post 5776, Ankamius wrote:Being conftown doesn't mean anything if you're never going to lynch correctly in lylo or are less likely to
All it does is make the cross vote obvious
scum really should be going into lylo with a plan on who they want to crossvote/lynch regardless since that chaos from having two town suspicious of each other can also be bad for scum in the end too
shrug-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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Anyways
I think if I had tried to be a rock for Kaede and pushed my wraith townread harder, I think the game would've been a lot different. The Wraith lynch was devastating in effect since it meant Impossibear had to push for the projectmatt lynch day three instead of having it day two and having them be around for a push on... potentially Ramcius?-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
Nah I don't think town deserves a win, the early game was a massive mess and the ones of us that were left didn't pick up the pieces well enoughIn post 5808, Punreader wrote:
It wasn't. I'd have been just as inactive as town. Arguably more.In post 5807, Ankamius wrote:I think the part that fooled me more was your overall lack of presence day six and knowing that it wasn't AI
I do confess to overextending myself a little, so I am quite pleased I have one less commitment on my hands.
I am sad the town didn't win since you played more than well enough for it and at every stage I felt guilty for lynching these players that I knew I should by all rights be defending.
Alas. 'Tis what it is.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
Tbh if I had caught you on day two amongst the locktown reads a lot of people had on you, that would've probably made me even more useless after the townblock dwindledIn post 5817, Punreader wrote:
Well it ended up good forIn post 5815, Ankamius wrote:You don't unless you know my history with both of them, which is why it's probably good that you didn't get to go that routeme...-
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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- Posts: 21802
- Joined: May 9, 2011
- Location: Target Locked. Initiating Combat.
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Ankamius Survivor
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ufunnyIn post 5826, Prof Fridays wrote:I think Punreader made a mistake?? I'm definitely a VT lmao.-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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What is the why behind the gambit?In post 5829, Dunnstral wrote:It's a gambit. Pun + prof isn't the maf team. Punreader was going for reactions, or so they'd have you believe. I think it was a ploy to grab at town cred - I think punreader is scum-
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Ankamius Survivor
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Ankamius Survivor
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You don't understand Pun like I doIn post 5840, Prof Fridays wrote:Bringing someone else into the gambit when he's only scum would pretty quickly expose it as a gambit, so it was a reliable failure, if that makes sense. So in that sense I can understand Dunnstral's point, but I'm not sure I agree with it.
In order for it to be a scum gambit, it needs a motivation to be a play worth pursuing and it needs a problem to address.
Only RMOJ is really scumreading them in this gamestate and worst case scenario, I just die tonight and my townread can be used as a shield to stop you two from having a leg to stand on with scumreading them
Why then would they risk it all on a gambit that would immediately be known to be false by at least one town and would shake up the game when the last lynch is already highly likely to be Dunnstral
It doesn't really fit and Pun isn't a bad enough scum player to do that