Open 731: Twin Trap (Game Over)

[GameNBurger]

Sorry guys, I was unde the impression thread unlock would be delivered via pm, and I just got home. Will catchup when I’m done cleaning the house

[GameNBurger]

I'm just gonna go page by page

Page 1 is just RVS

Real game starts at the vote count

Post 30 is either off or sloppy, which someone does correct him on the VT thing I know, This reads like noise to me
Egg makes a conclusive vote on Inferno in which Inferno immediately votes back on Egg

Let me check before I go on how new a player Inferno is because this is some hardcore flailing

Okay He's moderately new, not quite a year old user

Manatee also pushes Inferno but then goes out of his way to say its not worth pushing him for it

Inferno defends himself by digging into the ground and PR hunting thru logic that's more grasping at straws than any good ground to stand on; specifically I take issue with the reading of game questions as anything useful or insightful, it really just doesn't sell to me and seems like a bad attempt at PR hunting (or I guess VT hunting but they both dance with each other in concept) and when given the chance to defend himself Inferno just doubles down on the PR hunting (This is all Post 42 by the way)

Manatee caves into voting, but attributes it to a question from someone else rather than Inferno's recent post

A50 is posting I like his assessments, nothing really to add about his posts on page 2

Alright thats page 2, page 3 incoming after i transfer some laundry

[GameNBurger]

okay we're at the present day now

I really hope inferno is scum because its going to be a pain playing with him if he's town

Oof that Eragon post is a pain to read

His post I mostly agree with but i EXTREMELY disagree with his reasoning that PR hunting is helpful for town, It something every player should be doing in their heads but there is just no benefit to town that doesn't far more benefit scum to publicly PR hunt in any way

Alright unless I get ninja'd i'm all caught up

All things considered I'm willing to L-1 Inferno based on what we've got from him but I'd like to hear more from Fromage and Poseidon first before anyone even thinks about the word hammer, I personally always feel uneasy with fast lynches Day 1

Only other thing I'd note as super suspicious is Manatee's initial non committal feelings to vote Inferno followed by a near immediate flip when someone asks him about it

If Inferno is scum it screams soft bussing attempts gone wrong

If anyone has questions I'm all ears

[GameNBurger]

Eggs read on post 57 is correct

As he may remember from our game that’s genrally how I catch up is taking a bite summary and then stating opinions at the end of the catch-up, which is what post 58 island

Inferno do you atleast understand the counter arguments as to your methods of VT hunting? I don’t meant that sarcastically in any way, I’m being serious in asking

[GameNBurger]

Oh yeah egg only played a scum game with me

Manatee I don't think you're very much perceived as a strong town read, so I'm questioning why minimal effort posts sound like a good idea coming from you

I'd like to see more out of poseidon but honestly I guess its really hard to say anything else than whats been said already

Unless you're Fromage that is, to which its a perfect time to spout shady as F criticisms while showing halfhearted support for most popular wagon
Okay maybe its not that suspicious, especially after he clarified but it still seems cherry picky, especially when one of those posts is a legitimate question from a newer member

I think Inferno is flailing even harder

Okay let me go back and count the votes

[GameNBurger]

As for my current thoughts on which person I find scummier, I think I'd be willing to go full in on manatee being scum if Inferno is scum

Although then again his non commitment then turnaround for his inferno vote feels weird regardless

I guess there's only a few scenarios:
1. Both are Scum: Either manatee wanted to soft bus but was called out on it and flip flopped or they were trying to offer inferno soft advice during the day as a scum partner
2. Inferno is Scum, Manatee is Town: It would have to be nerves or some kind of play-style that involves not explaining himself (manatee I mean). I personally detest this play-style. I'll have to check into Manatee's other games to see if he's just like this
3. Inferno Town, Manatee Scum: Why??????????? I don't see manatee's response as something natural, hesitance to vote while also saying behavior is scummy just doesn't add up to me, In this situation i feel like scum would just keep quiet and let town roll itself, not voting on a wagon that hasn't fully formed yet doesn't earn you any points so this situation is either motivated by stupid or is unlikely
4. Both are town: we all lose here. Maximum idiot has been reached. Inferno is just being bad and manatee is letting themselves burn right next to Inferno

I'd like to think and hope 1 is the most likely scenario, but I really need to look into Manatee to see if 2 is a possibility

However, I think Its more solid that Inferno is Scum, so thats where I'm at right now. I'll be back after I do some stuff and look into manatee

[GameNBurger]

Okay so for Manatee

These are all finished games i'm talking about obviously so nothing is ongoing

Manatee is scum in 1879 Newb:
He makes posts very similar to this game, where in later days he adds slightly more reasoning to his actions, but he mostly stays out of sight, espescially early on when he replaced in

Manatee is town in micro 813:
Also posts similar to here but notes he is frustrated with the site and even mentions possibly siteflaking, So not sure how to read into this

Manatee is town in open 730:
Posts very similar to this game, but notes it was dumb play and even apologizes

Manatee is town in Newb 1864:
Gets lynched day 1 after subbing in, posts have a bit more reasoning behind them or atleast more content to them, but still ultimately are more reserved

Manatee is Scum in Newb 1868:
Scum partners with Inferno even! Manatee replaces out during day 1 however, and seems to be due to IRL stuff so this whole game is in the null pile for me

Ultimately this playstyle is something he uses but to some degree isn't always happy with? I'm not sure I'm willing to really assess but usually Manatee is better about giving quick reasons for reads as town early on rather than just throwing stuff out there

Theres more stuff from his homesite but i'm far to lazy/busy to delve there

[GameNBurger]

I really wanted him to adress me more directly and see how he responds to the pressure before turning up the heat with an L-1

His response was super bad and has stayed constant to his behavior this game

HOWEVER

He is right that I screwed up reading the 1868 game, the mod used red text for replaced players in that game and inferno was replaced
Inferno was not scum but manatee was, I didn’t look deep into the game since manatee replaced out relatively easily

So I am very sorry about that and that’s my bad but it doesn’t contribute or take away anything from my reads on inferno since it was null anyways

Someone sell me on the case of manatee being a safer bet than inferno for lynch

I know out there is the possibility inferno being just a bad player flailing badly but I feel like this bad play is bad scumplay rather than bad town play

Manatee makes me uncomfortable with his posts and is definitely my number 2 but I could still chop it up to mindlessness and playstyle more than I could chop up Infernos action to bad town play


Anyways my vote stands with inferno unless I feel like suddenly manatee is a safer bet

VOTE: inferno

I’m out and about but I’ll take any questions, it just might take a while for me to respond

[GameNBurger]

I stopped paying attention to Inferno's posts already. I would appreciate it if he put Manatee @L-1 though and would state intent myself.

Question: why not vote manatee yourself?

[GameNBurger]

I think your reactions are entirely reactionary rather than logical jumps or any sort of serious thought

You don’t have coherent scumreads but OMGUS anyone that seems to seriously hold an accusation against you

I read this as panicky flailing rather than believe your bad enough (read: delusional) to seriously beleive all of the people you think are scum are still scum, so you read more reactionary rather than someone who has a coherent idea of what’s going on

That being said:

Your reaction to my mistake was justified, I think it’s reachy since I read the entire game as null to anything and dimssed it but I do understand your response there

[GameNBurger]

To answer some quick questions since I’m phone posting

Inferno can die and I’d be happy with it, he’s done nothing to convince me he’s town, if you wanna hammer state intent so he can claim, I’d rather not blindhammer

To briefly respond to the larger post

Sorry for not holding the L-1, that’s my bad

I hold that 1 is the thing I hope for since I’m that case the game is set and done for me, as I strongly beleive inferno to be scum and manatee is a softer number two pick that gets stronger in my mind if Inferno is scum

Thus I really don’t want a scenario where inferno is scum but manatee isn’t , as manatee is gonna have a real uphill battle to climb with me if he’s town since that’ll be my number one guy tomorrow

Idk if that makes sense or not again phone posting so I apologize for the lucid ness

The reason I’d rather chop up manatee to playstyle rather than inferno is that reactionary is not a valid playstyle while withdrawn play is a strategy many people employ (although I personally disagree with the way most people play with their reasonings close to their belt)

To elaborate on my point about inferno not being able to beleive everyone pushing him is scum, while he’s voted 3, far more people have cast him into doubt and until he really posts a definitive reads list so I can see where he thinks scum definitively lies

I think that answers everything, do call me out if I missed anything as I am phoneposting right now

[GameNBurger]

I’m more in agreement with Eragon when it isn’t day 1 but it is day 1 and I don’t really think any town that could quickhammer would, the one reactionary player is the target of the wagon anyways

Not to mention I think if the few people who’ve mentioned it are anything to go by, whoever did quickhammer would be crucified since there’s only a handful of possibilities:

1.inferno and Hammer vote are scum: robbing us of discussion, but we nail half the mafia on first day which cripples them
2. Inferno scum, hammer vote is town: just s really passionate townie that for some reasons doesn’t value the 11 extra days we have
3. Inferno is town, hammer vote is scum: scum is trigger happy to make the lynch happen
4. Inferno is town, hammer vote is town: hammer vote doesn’t value discussion and is very wrong about inferno

I don’t think either course of action would be motivated by the voters win condition


1. This would kind of make sense to possibly happen but would still greatly benefit town more than it does mafia
2. Unless someone REALLY doesn’t value discussion and doesn’t want to talk about it, this feels unlikely to me
3. I’m gonna Occam’s razor this and say this is far too risky a gambit for scum to be this impatient as most of the town scumreads inferno at this point, so they’d already got us there
4. Copy paste my thoughts for number 2 here, as the motivator for the quick hammer vote would be the same

That’s why I feel comfortable putting him at L-1, if we were playing with more impulsive players I’d be wary

In particular the thing that made me feel comfortable with inferno dying is that rather than the pressure doing anything he’s just going to continue to spew reactionary drivel and I don’t feel like this is coming from town

P edit: looks like I’mnonlonger the l-1 vote so problem solved

[GameNBurger]

P edit: looks like I’mnonlonger the l-1 vote so problem solved

Lol

Like it never happened, eh?

What kinda logic is this?!

The logic that never claimed that nobody should bother or talk about or that never claimed it never happened, but mererely claimed I don’t have to do anything about it at all now

[GameNBurger]

Sorry, I should never phone post in the morning

Point is I never said what bujaber is extracting from my words, now that inferno isn’t at L-1, I don’t have to do jack

But I never said that it’s as if I never voted, just that I have zero reason to change my vote now

Sorrry about the confusing blurb in the previous post

[GameNBurger]

I'm not so sure Eragon is town anymore. The quickhammer talk reads fake to me. Got my eye on you.

Manatee got significant pressure early on (first to L-2 I think) and still doesn't seem interested in posting more/ posting anything useful.
You realize his entire ISO is pretty much going back and forth on inferno?

So question, what are your reads currently if they are soildnright now?

Also I’ll second this again that manatee should think about playing the game

[GameNBurger]

In my defense I read it the wrong way at first. I thought you were actually trying to say that since inferno isn't at L-1 anymore that people don't have to discuss your L-1 vote anymore. Which made me laugh.

Ah I see that makes more sense

Yeah that would be bad

[GameNBurger]

My bad I didn’t mean to imply they were solid, I was asking if they were solid

I have a feeling inferno isn’t going to claim, I still want to wait for his response tho

[GameNBurger]

Just read up, and I am refusing to claim this early in the day, mostly because I think I was run up as a cover for PR hunting. So I will leave scum in WIFOM on whether I am a PR or not with this post.

#154 is weak. If so was going to self hammer, I would have done it already, and no way my partner comes in to hammer and reveal himself.
Also don’t like 158, this again reads like PR hunting. There is this thing called pressuring to determine alignment, A50.
GameNBurger is still just throwing AoP my way, so I’m officially ignoring anything he says about me for now. He can come back with a real read. Also way too concerned with how his vote looks imo.
Scum is somewhere in {A50, Eragon, GameNBurger}. This is where my lynchpool is until further notice (I.e.: scum reveals itself somewhere else)

This kind of scenario is why I think L-2 holds no actual threat

You can have confidence to stall at L-2

With L-1 and actual intent to hammer shit gets done and we don't have this soft claim bullshit

And yes this is totally soft claim bullshit

If you're gonna not claim fine make that choice but don't throw out that "oh is this WIFOM scum? Am I a PR? AM I?"

Scum has no motivation to make a claim or even sweat at all unless they're at minimum L-1

Atleast thats my experience around here

[GameNBurger]

Mine is:

{Egg, Eragon}
{BuJaBer}
{Fromage}
{poseidon}
{Inferno, Manatee, GameNBurger}

So to explain my thought process I'm just gonna confirm: Fromage is null, poseidon is scum lean, Inferno/Manatee/Game is scum

Since scum is only 2, It's really easy to write up detailed thoughts or arguments on pairings even if you influde your null read on fromage

Theres only 10 pairings:

Inferno/fromage
Inferno/poseidon
Inferno/Manatee
Inferno/Game
Fromage/poseidon
Fromage/manatee
Fromage/Game
Poseidon/manatee
Poseidon/Game
Manatee/Game

Now while I know its a lot to ask you to write your thoughts on all of those pairings, I would appreciate if you did
However I also understand if youd rather play with your notes entirely to the belt, I'd disagree with the strategy but I'd understand that some just play that way
But seeing we have 11 days and we have 3 tied wagons I don't see a reason why to not ask

I think I might do a series of posts detailing all the possible inferno Scum teams, and if we don't have enough to discuss past that then do other possible pairings with all players

[GameNBurger]

@Eragon

I don't think I did, I simply explained how i read them to clarify any potential confusion with how i got my list of potential pairings that a50 was suggesting. As it turns out, I did make a wrong reading of his reads, as he corrected me that poseidon was his completely null read.

Back to working on my larger post.

[GameNBurger]

I'm going To go down In list order from the initial post
These are gonna work thru the logic and past actions in the game assuming the pairing as the assumption

Spoiler: Inferno/A50

Inferno/A50

Inferno in Post 42 pushes back after mistakingly thinking a50 was saying he was the BEST wagon, this interaction seems odd to me unless Inferno REALLY hates being bussed and is paranoid about it
Post 45 follows the already budding suggestions that Inferno is PRHunting scum and saying Infernos response in 42 is bad, could be A50 pushing the eject button on Inferno and bussing HARD, then sets Me up as a potential sequential lynch based on my lack of activity
A50 arguing with inferno after this point while inferno fails to grasp how pointing to VT's in particular is PR hunting, This feels too oddly genuine for me to begin to attribute any of this fighting to scum motivation
Everyone continues discussing Inferno, A50 directly responds to Buj with his reasons for his push in Post 92
A50 questions me to put my money where my mouth is, maybe trying to set me up? Either way I responeded he might have still pegged me as scum partners? A50 also excuses himself from interacting with Inferno unless he chooses to
A50 makes it clear he wants to lynch a VT today, which someone points out later that it looks like he's feeding scum strategy on how they should claim (which if you're town a50 thanks for the Delicious WIFOM), this could be A50 trying to signal to inferno how to claim as scum in this game and then excuse himself as a reason to vote out a different person if they claim VT
A50 directly responds to criticisms by futher outlining optimal town play even further in a bizarrely contradictory fashion, not understanding that on the off chance scum doesn't know it, then town would have the upper hand (okay that sentence doesn't read very well but the point is that Almost50 turned the whole thing into a big public WIFOM fest for all sides of the town to enjoy)
A50 does follow this up with a series of explanations that makes the strategy sound pretty sound, although the WIFOM of it all means we still really can't act on that sequence of events happening
A50 dissapears for a while and then comes back to supply a scum game and then defend the usefullness of L-1, but also takes the direct question from Eragon to vote me and take some pressure off the wagon
He also emphasizes Inferno should claim

Thoughts:

While I could see a picture that A50 is simply hard bussing, a lot of it would depend on setting me up as a target and I don't think A50 is actually doing that. It seems A50 is playing with a lot of his thoughts close to the belt, so perhaps I need to do a meta dive to see if this is usually the case. I'm not really sure this pairing would make 100% sense unless A50 is the most enthusiastic busser yet. I also don't feel like Inferno's reaction would make sense for this to be a scum pairing either.

Spoiler: Inferno/Fromage

Inferno/Fromage:

Fromage lays in the background and remains inactive until 82 and doesn't really touch Inferno directly at first, but begins to ask him a question and praise an early criticism of Inferno.
Fromage continues to ask questions of other players as well as calls out A50's earlier post as feeding scum strategy.
He asks If i'm fine with Inferno dying. After Inferno's response, I reply yes.
He also asks if I changed my mind on being uncomfortable with fast Day 1 Lynches, I don't answer this question due to phoneposting. If you're curious, when I mentioned being uncomfortable it was before I was locked in to the idea that Inferno is scum. Inferno responed terribly, and I got a lot more comfortable with lynching Inferno whenever.
Fromage clarifies his defense with Eragon, then outlines a case for me being scum due to inconsistency.
Fromage says hes busy and promises to read more into Inferno on Tuesday, asks Eragon to contribute his thoughts on my L-1 vote on inferno, also argues against his L-2 favorability.

Thoughts:

Fromage hasn't touched on a lot of players in the game, he's only sort of interacted with Inferno and argued a little bit with Eragon. He asks direct questions but I'm not sure of his whole thoughts if he has them together yet. I could see this all being scum behavior that makes sense when inferno is so publicly flailing but I also don't see why he wouldn't have simply backed the manatee wagon as a response. Setting my wagon up just seems way to town for me to really buy into Fromage being scum

Spoiler: Inferno/Eragon

Inferno/Eragon

Eragon writes semi wall posts both bussing his partner while also earning towncred and drawing suspiscion by questioning other posters
Eragon responds to some small criticisms and then continues to analyze anything he can, and must be the best at impersonating town
Eragon does ask for votes to remain on L-2, perhaps as a cover to buy inferno some time
Okay theres really not much to say here

Thoughts:

So Eragon is probably my strongest townread and I really don't see this pair happening, and I dont really see him as a user that could relentlessly bus with a smile, I seriously had a hard time picturing his actions motivated by scum at all

Spoiler: Inferno/Egg

Inferno/Egg

Egg Takes a super early opportunity to bus inferno at the literal first possible moment
Also questions inferno's commitment to vote, could be a trap set, as when inferno changes his vote he votes manatee for flip flopping
Egg townreads Buj, but keeps his reasons close to the belt at first but explains it, saying He liked that Buj called out inferno's crappy townread on Buj, this could be to try and position himself as town rather if Inferno flips scum?
Egg gets busy

Thoughts:

Egg should post more, I know he'll be back Sunday to catch up. He's really in the null/town lean for me for now but i want to see more thoughts on the recent stuff

Spoiler: Inferno/Manatee

Inferno/Manatee

Soft pushes Inferno then flips to hard pushing when egg calls him out on it. He later townreads eragon and scumreads Inferno
He asks for inferno meta
That is literally all that has happened.

Thoughts:

This is hardcore lurking or extreme activity. Its getting to the point where town or scum I'd much rather he'd replace out. I know this is supposed to be about the persepctive scum partners but its getting ridiculous. If he is scum, his behavior makes complete sense but ultimately his behavior is such a nuisance. Ugh. To reiterate:

Manatee PLEASE consider subbing out. There's no shame in being busy, and if you're lurking this hard I have hard time seeing how this is strategy

Spoiler: Inferno/Poseidon

Inferno/Poseidon

No you know what, You're worse than Manatee. Get back in the game and do a proper catchup or sub out PLEASE.

Poseidon needs to catch up or sub out. This is just inactivity and its really annoying.

Spoiler: Inferno/Buj

Inferno/Buj

Buj calls out inferno on his bad read as a bus attempt
Buj runs up the Manatee wagon to try and give his scum buddy a chance without fully unbussing Inferno, Puts Manatee at L-2
Swivels to Inferno to being lynchbait to dismiss the wagon
Buj really starts participating in the game and asking direct questions while sprinkiling in some reads here and there, also supports an Inferno claim, but leaves inferno's name out of the reads in 171

Thoughts:

I could see this pairing happening. He feels like he's silently keeping an associative distance from inferno, which feels weird. While I also shared the Manatee suspicion earlier in the game, at this point Manatee is merely a few more posts worse than Poseidon. To me, the more time passes on, Mantee's participation has not stayed proportional and reads more like someone who isn't even playing the game. While yes Manatee has done a very scummy thing, its arguably the ONLY thing he's done the whole game. That doesn't make him unscummy, but my gut is telling me he just needs to be replaced.

Man that took longer than expected

This post made me realize we're dealing with two extraordinarly absent players (egg cuts it close but has a promised date of return and catch up we can hold him to) which makes trying to find second scum REALLY more difficult

I'll be busy for a while but shoot any questions if you have any

As a reminder all the dropdowns are fabricating a perspective assuming the pairing is true, not an argument or accusation of whats occured; this is more like a list of notes

Alright peace i'll back later

[GameNBurger]

{Eragon, Me}
{Buj, A50}
{fromagw, egg}
{Inferno}

That’s town, town lean, null, scum

AND POSEIDON AND MANATEE NEED TO JOIN IN SUDDENLY AND CATCH UP OR REPLACE OUT
they’re screwing up my reads, I feel like I’m playing Yahtzee with a deck of 47 cards

[GameNBurger]

I'm gonna replace out guys. Sorry

No problem, hope all is going well

[GameNBurger]

I'd actually be very impressed if burger flips scum after all that.

Though I don't understand his approach and I think a lot of what he's doing is based on circumstantial evidence and could all be a waste of time.

There's no harm in thinking about possible associations a little to help you sort people, but making a whole entire list based on someome being scum that hasn't flipped yet seems like an exercise in futility.

Just highly unlikely that this comes from scum tbh.

It’s more that I like to play with my thoughts entirely on the table and studied game theory in college so I’ve been trained at breaking problems into a list of all possible outcomes to start

As I made an offhand mention before I made the list I plan on doing this for all players combos possible, I simply started with inferno since I’m really convinced he’s scum and it’s just most efficient to start with him first. Give the game will probably not be in full swing until Sunday again (unlesss manatee is replaced super fast) I should have the time to organize it all,

As for why? Scum game can sometimes be made easy by sitting back and letting the town pigeonhole themselves and get stuck in a corner, the idea is that scum want to be left in the shadows of sweetness, where the town is calling other town on bad and start voting eachother while scum just try to not be stupid. This isn’t always how it goes but it can be very dangerous to not have a handle on everything that’s going on.

Since there’s 2 scum and 7 town it’s not too Herculean of a task to list off all the possible combinations and build cases for each one, while it isn’t actively making an argument for one shorthand goal (who to vote out today) I think it has its merits for organizing what may be (Atleast for me) an insurmountable amount of info into an accessible and comprehensive list. While initially tedious, tomorrow there will be two less players (and most likely one less scum) which will make the process far shorter on my end.

I will admit it’s rare that I can do this sort of process in a timely manner in day 1, as the small size of the overall player count and scum team is what makes this all manageable, but i figure since it’s all past info and speculation there’s no harm to town or benefit to scum from having open notes like that

[GameNBurger]

I’ve mentioned this in a previous game but god I really hate “Lynch me” strategy

I feel like it’s boredeline against town win condition which makes it borderline rule bending if you’re town or bad scum play if you’re scum

While you haven’t committed all the way to a “lunch me” strat and opted for saying it sarcastically at best it’s useless fluff and at worst it’s giving up

[GameNBurger]

Sorry that last post was sitting in the tray at the end of the last page let me actually read what’s happened

[GameNBurger]

So still phoneposting sorry

@egg welcome back
I was hoping for reasons why we should lynch what was a completely inactive slot who really performed 1 action the whole game
Of course a lot has happened because unless there’s some wild strategy or meta I’m not aware of there is a pitifully small amount of game to lynch

Atleast personally if it’s a certain kind of cut and dry inactivity rather than purposeful lurk I prefer to urge to replace and see how the response goes

I don’t mean to say you should play this way or should feel this way Espescially now that we’re in the future but the way I see it I think Poseidon is more guilty of lurkscum than manatee is

Particularly I’m a bit more interested to hear manatee’s replacement slot

MOD CAN WE KNOW IF/WHEN MANATEES REPLACEMNT CONFIRMS ROLE
I’d really like to know if we’re playing with the slot right now

I’d actually prefer to wait for manatee to have to say stuff on the game and catch up before hammer

[GameNBurger]

UNVOTE:

This is idiotic

I’m going to see this thru but this is by far the most frustrating and pointless feeling day 1 I’ve ever played

I guess the extremely long day is a good thing now that it feels like we have to start again with all the players catching up

[GameNBurger]

I lost motivation but I’m back

This game is a bit depressing but I’m really gonna have to start fresh and look at things starting from all the sub ins

I’m glad I did the full analysis of interactions with inferno since it holds some finality

From my quick glance everyone’s acting like the hammer is coming, whose hammering?????? Did I just miss it?

[GameNBurger]

Please don't lynch yet, I haven't had the time to really give thoughts on whats happened till now

Working on it now

[GameNBurger]

Fuck it I hate Tor's weird claim and I also hate the rolling over and dying strategy

Its either some horrendously terrible gambit coming from a town player or really disheartened scum

I'm glad to see Posideon is actually playing the game although their strat of barely aknowledging the game at large before the subs came in just feels off
I'm unsure of this honestly but posideon screams lazy to me more than anything else when i read his ISO, he feels more coasting overall

Fromage needs to come back or be one of the next people to replace out, his activity level is absurdly low and I see both Posideon and Wh4t jumping on that but honestly I really cant blame them. Easy target? Yes. Extraordinarly low activity? Absolutely, all its a bit rich coming from Posideon (yes I'm aware Posideon did not cite lack of participation as a reason but his main motivator was piggybacking Wh4t's post on fromage)

about Wh4t actually, I atleast can say i see it extremely unlikely that him and Posideon could be scum buds
I actually feel a lot more chipper about Wh4t's slot but I'm a bit more interested in the Manatee/Tor flip to see what happens

I HAVE A QUESTION Wh4t: Do you stand by the accusation of your scum slip?

Moving on, I see A50 as moving up my townie meter for that post, the Tor slot would have been weird to him to bus so hard on if Tor is scum so I find the scenario unrealistic

Actually sorry let me not half ass it, 4 SCENARIOS POSSIBLE:

1. A50 and Tor Scum: A50 busses really really hard and sets me up as the logical next day mislynch
2. A50 and Tor are town: A50 just really beleives that slot is scum
3 A50 is scum Tor is town: A50 is setting up a next day lynch targe (me) that won't matter since they'll reevaluate their reads if Tor flips town?
4. A50 Town Tor Scum: Same as number 2

I find 1 unlikely since A50 would have to bus a slot that would have been easy to defend (unlike Inferno's slot which was a raging meltdown)
I find 3 unlikely since there would be little to gain from throwing my name out in post 375 since in this scenario A50 would know Tor is town

Hence I find A50 much more likely to be town

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To reiterate actually for visibility:

WH4T: do you still stand by your claim of Tor scumslipping?

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That makes a bit more sense Tor although I personally wouldn’t have spoken that way but that’s just me being nitpickey about how I’d play

I gotta agree with Tor on this one, that makes your slot feel miles worse because it’s just too stupid

Hear me out on this, you could see how you works as good as you all?

Eragon and A50 are my strongest townreads

Eragon, why do you think wh4t isn’t scummy, or atleast explain how you think town can seriously beleive the You is a scum slip
I’d appeal to A50 on this as well but honestly I really can’t blame A50 for seeing me as scum based on the Tor read they have

I’m not so sold on Tor being super town either, I think the safer bet for scum for me is The wh4t slot
VOTE: wh4t

I really am gonna stick to my gut right now on this, i have a feeling the Tor lynch is gonna happen

I’m surprised the hammer hasn’t dropped yet actually

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I forgot to mention Tor I disagree that posideon is playing an OMGUS on his reads

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Tor I forgot to mention I disagree entirely the posideons reads are OMGUS

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Sorry I’m phone posting

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I really am gonna stick to my gut right now on this, i have a feeling the Tor lynch is gonna happen

I’m surprised the hammer hasn’t dropped yet actually

This is gross. If the Tor lynch is going to happen and you're surprised he hasn't been hammered and you scum read him, the only reason you would be vanity voting elsewhere is that you're scum and not wanting to be on a villa wagon or voting your buddy.

I wasn’t demanding the hammer be dropped instantly
I personally think the Tor lynch is also fine but A50 already claimed intent to hammer and I see no beneifit from cutting any time out just for the sake of hammering, I strongly townread A50 and respect their judgment

I vote so my opinion of my top scumread is made clear and I hate not having my vote being used to soemthing personally

Also thank you A50 for explaining that, this actually makes sense and I didn’t grasp it when you said something similar earlier in the game

I’m embarrassed about being dense about it earlier because the game theory behind it really isn’t too deep down the well so sorry about that

To reiterate since I’m phone posting

I didn’t hammer because there’s literally no reason for me to do so

Espescially since A50 explained it to me now I really would rather not run up any other claims

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No you’re right wh4t

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@Tor: Your 20 now over 60. Your time is up, my friend. Please make sure you post everything you want to in the next 45 minutes. If you're town it will help us all (I still remember we had complimentary reads in the last game we played together were I was SRing one scum and hard TRing the other and you were SRing the one I TR and TRing the one I SR, so believe me when I say I will take your reads into consideration if you flip green). If you're scum though feel free to save your effort cuz I

am

hammering you and then I'm not gonna look back at anything you said.

@Burger: The "safer bet" is to always lynch the claimed VT on D1. You

know

a TPR doesn't claim VT @L-1, so we're guaranteed a no TPR flip for starters. It also prevents running up a real TPR who will then have to claim and be outed unnecessarily. So, on D1.. always vote the scummiest player, and if they claim a VT just lynch them.

that's a big paragraph about many things that don't matter and aren't relevant to my alignment or a read on my slot.

.........and???????

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For the love of god Tor read the writing on the wall and post your reads

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The most town thing you can do right now Tor is atleast post your final readslist or indicate you’re going to post a reads list

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Fuck it I’m going full tinfoil hat I think they’re both scum

VOTE: Tor [/unvote]

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Eragon beatbox me

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I’ll reiterate it’s phoneposting

Flip time yayyy

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I’ll be around sort of I’m eating dinner

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Wait Eragon didn’t hammer he was already voting the manatee slot last I beleive

So I was the one to hammer

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He didn’t buy it and it totally does

That and when you said to not resubmit it’s a bit obvious

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I see A50 unvoted so I’ll stop being coy about the double down yeah that doesn’t count but that was by pure chance

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Seriously I need to eat

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He’s referencing when you urged A59 to place someone at L-1

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A69, you have any thoughts on current reads now that you’ve withdrawn from the Tor scumread?

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Egg is the the supposed pairing of me and A71 based on more on my posts and then inferring him as the partner, or the either way around?

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That’s L-2 right?

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If posideon is is scum I’m really gonna have to eat crow on Wh4ts slot being scum because there’s no way in my brain that they’re scum buds

That being said posideon stinks of lurker filth
As does fromage

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Try 21 posts over 500 post total game posideon

Eragon you have more posts than I do so I’d hardly call you a full game lurker

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We've got two days to figure this out however I think I'm going to be V/LA tomorrow and Monday
I'm not sure but by the end of Today i'll know

So potential scum for me are in {Tor, Wh4t, Fromage, Poseidon}

Only 6 pairings possible So i'll try to find the most likely pairs and see if that helps get me a better picture at larger scum

However If i don't have time to look into all possible pairings then I'm just gonna follow the game theory logic and go for the safest lynch which is Tor

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I'd hammer that

And yes I've had no time to do an in depth pairing

Please claim Fromage

You've had the whole game day to catch up

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You're probably right. But if I had refused to claim and Burger had hammered me, Burger wouldn't be confscum.

God damnit fromage

Lurking is the most obvious TPR strategy so you would have guaranteed been the first kill

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Wait hold up

Why wouldn’t you full claim

If you’re TPR and get outer likr you did, scum will come after you in the night anyways
If someone counterclaims, what happens? We get a confirmed scum between the two of you, so even if we mislynch on a coin flip we get 1 guranteddnscum lynch the next day

There’s literally no benefit and I’m gonna choose to beleive you’re not an idiot

BUT! With a generic reasoning to not full claim, scum could claim a PR without drawing out an immediate counterclaim (as neither town or would have enough info to know if you’re bluffing or not

So please full claim if you’re town

Because otherwise you’re scum trying to ride out an easy half claim to waver quickminded reactioaries and then when you miraculously survive the night you’ll claim it’s an eleaborate attempt from scum to pull off some great WIFOM or something

So do us a favor, full claim please because at this point you’re being taken out tonight no matter what

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INB4 fromage tries to explain why it’s “good” to not full claim

Potentially there the scenario where you really are town and are hoping the other detective can catch the scum making your kill but that’s 1/14 chance of that happening and those odds are slim AND they’re one shot, once scum shoot you they now know which guy to send to kill after that one night

And I really can’t fathom any other reason why you’d think thats a good idea

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BUT! With a generic reasoning to not full claim, scum could claim a PR without drawing out an immediate counterclaim

No one should CC either way. Have you been reading my posts?

Yes I’m aware, they would counterclaim tomorrow in theory

However that does require a full claim from fromage tomorrow to counterclaim

Or if you’re saying he never full claims if he gets left alive, on the chance he’s scum he then has a large influence over the town who conf read him while the PRe are in the dark whether they can trust him or not

I could understand full claiming tomorrow if he’s not offed tonight but we seriously need to get going

And if that’s happening we really need to lynch Tor since we shouldn’t force out any claims more than we’ve already done

SO FROMAGE: will you fullclaim day 2? I can sort of understand the idea that theirs little difference between you claiming today or day 2 except the latter gives that 7% chance of finding scum

Also I really did the numbers wrong it might be 1/12 chance since I assume the other PR wouldn’t choose to follow you since we’d have a guranteed verification if you were town on day 2

If that’s your plan then I’m all for it

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If you’re TPR and get outer likr you did, scum will come after you in the night anyways

True, but then they don't know which TPR they're killing and thus do not know which of the, should make the NK

This I was aware of also, that’s where the 1/14 (now correctly 1/12) chance to find scum comes from

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Potentially there the scenario where you really are town and are hoping the other detective can catch the scum making your kill but that’s 1/14 chance of that happening and those odds are slim AND they’re one shot, once scum shoot you they now know which guy to send to kill after that one night

7% is already significantly higher than 0%. And your odds are based on random play. I think the real odds are higher than 1/14th

Given that I didn’t major as an actuarian AND we don’t know who the other TPR is (and therefore can’t sus out their ability to assess other players)we really can’t determine their ability to do their job

Thus I feel pretty confident in saying it’s 1/12 chance

However this is all moot since I see your point that that is better than a zero percent chance

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I feel like if Eragon is scum then I’m wrong about all my reads

But it might in fact be pogoing

I don’t see why I shouldn’t talk about what should happen with claiming

With what I’ve proposed scum get no way of interfering just by mentioning it unlike your talk of how scum should claim and how town should counterclaim A50

TO FROMAGE
Things changed when you claimed a TPR, running up any more claims past two starts to really tilt things in scum’s fashion
I think getting a third claim day 1 is just too much

As for you

I’ll reiterate again I don’t trust the blanket claim but See the strategy behind it. If you promise to claim tomorrow I will move my vote to Tor

Otherwise I’ll put my vote on you because blanket claiming like that is in no way a town move and here’s why
So tomorrow is the day before lylo
Waiting for lylo to claim leaves scum a strat of counterclaiming and hoping for a coin flip victory and if you’re town chances are your lurker ass , and that’s even if you make it
But if you claim the day before lylo and it draws out a counterclaim possibly, town can afford to take the gamble (and then save ourselves from lylo the next day if things go bad)
That’s IF you make it tomorrow or even lylo
So I’m gonna need you to promise a full claim

And don’t think about appealing to democracy to avoid strategy

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Boooooooo I really for the love of god can not see A50 being scum

I take it fromage is really gonna just wait this out

Do not let him wiggle out of claiming full tomorrow for the love of god

That being said I may be busy during these last areas

I’m gonna vote Tor for safety in case fromage comes out promising to full claim tomorrow

VOTE: Tor

That’s L-2, we need to lynch guys

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He’s better than running up a third claim

And almost as good as a fromage lynch

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If we had the time I’d be more inclined

But I’d rather not take the risk of being wrong three times and giving scum a lot of info

Unless you think neither fromage or Tor are NEVER scum you’re giving scum more info for the NK tonight

Unless you’re really 100% confident you can ding scum

But you have less than 10 hours to convince people of A50 being scum

And you just don’t have that time available to scum hunt good

It’s best to make what we have now rather than pretend like we’re all gold medalists in dick stroking and drown in our own sticky overconfidence

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You an I both know a blanket claim is not strong enough to be an actual claim

It’s literally impossible for his blanket claim to draw out a counterclaim

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Yes it will
Hence why I’m waiting for his response and my vote is on Tor

If he does not promise a full claim tomorrow he’s getting voted out

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This is the scumhinting fromage. If you can say 100% you’re full claiming tomorrow then I can trust you 100% right now

To which I’m going with Tor as the lynch

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I’m much more willing to look into Eragon tomorrow

I’d rather lynch Tor today

Will monitor this thread to hammer in case of a no lynch

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Eragon what are you doing

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i dont see how that relates?

It means your gambit provides us with zilch information thats useful

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He’s not and it’s suspicious as fuck, scum should not have more shots at trying to land power roles in the night

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Not to mention scum gets to pick the least informative kills

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CORRECTION


I MEANT TO SAY HES NOT RIGHT

ODD NYMBER ADVANTAGE IS THE MKST BASIC THING TO UNDERSTAND IN MAFIA THEORY

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You and A150 both said due to my ambiguous wording assumed that I was saying you were not wrong about no lynching

I mean to say I thought you were dead wrong about it and your promoting it is suspiscous

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Eragon let’s assume scum play a really good game and we get to lylo, that’s 3v2 lylo

That means 4 townies have died

We the town get to pick two of those kills

However if we no lynch like you’ve suggest we give up omen kd those two kills

You may not see value in town decided mislynches, but it’s much better than mafia deciding a kill

Plus the odds of the pr getting shot increases every night even if we assume scum have no brains and can’t pr hunt

Scum benefit entirely by no lynching. Mafia days are not enclosed games, it’s a long term game played over several day phases. The same amount of people are going to die until we ding scum. All no lynching accomplishes is give the scum one of those kills to decide for themselves.

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I will be here for a while, I’ll move my vote because it’s better than nothing and the more he talks bad strategy the more it all looks strange

If anything his bad attempt at hammer gambiting with Tor makes more sense if he’s scum

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I guess I could see that

I just see no benefit in PURPOSLY voting town just becuase you don’t want to no-lynch

Because I’m not voting a TOWNY town

I’d be voting a SCUMMY town

There’s info to be gained from being able to be sure of somebody’s alignment

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My god I’m gonna feel like a chump if Eragon really is scum

But my Eragon town read has been taking a nosedive the later this day goes on

I feel like you and Tor might be scum together is what makes that strange interaction feel more sense

You’re not a newb right? What’s your experience with the game outside of this site?

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A50 would have every reason to get away with scum piling back on the Tor wagon

This push feels town motivated

I didn’t see the “I want the hammer”

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My god I’m gonna feel like a chump if Eragon really is scum

But my Eragon town read has been taking a nosedive the later this day goes on

I feel like you and Tor might be scum together is what makes that strange interaction feel more sense

You’re not a newb right? What’s your experience with the game outside of this site?

You’ll feel worse when you are the vote that lynches town instead of scum

Cut this kind of ATE lite shit out please

And no I won’t hinestly, mislynching is far less worse than strongly townreading a scum

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Don’t bother I’ve read it now

In game theory it’s called a commitment device

Let’s say you want to win a game of chicken, and while the cars are waiting to go, one player keeps their tires straight and chicks their wheel out the window, so they are unable to swerve. When they both start driving the other player will immediately serve to avoid crashing, since the other player can not physically swerve anymore

A50 has committed to hammering you

He had two other wagons to pick and he doesn’t want to be accused tomorrow of going L-4 on you and also signal he’s not going to vote anyone but you

Nor does he want another player to be accused of ippurtunity hammering

Which their commitment to hammer eliminates that avenue of possibility for scum

Also did you seriously claim casually like that

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VOTE: eragon

If you’re really town you’re going to gambit us into a loss

My only qualms voting you was you not having claimed yet

And you couldn’t even keep that straight

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That’s L-1

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God why’d he get so spammy

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Come kn Eragon don’t be nasty

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Seriously if you’re really town overly agressive play really doesn’t help

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The thanks for hosting comment is a bit much

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Or atleast the double posting after his post is

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I suppose I read too much into it then, I thought it was sarcastic since you mostly see people saying that at the end of the fame

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^That was @Eragon obviously

P-edit: If you flip town I will. I'll even vote myself if I'm wrong about you.

What does this accomplish

There is in fact a chance you’re wrong contrary to what you may beleive

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v/la till after Monday

I’ve got CSETS to take

When I have time I’ll work on write ups of players based on the info we have now

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Yayyyyy

This game is on low priority for me into Csets are taken so having an easy day 2 works great for me

I was worried when Fromage was found but looks like the odds payed off and Buj correctly guessed

I guess I can’t play Night Kill bait anymore since the roles are out there now

Unless I’m missing someone in my memory of whose in this game A50 is the only player left who could possibly counterclaim

If you guys really wanted to be nice I’d appreciate the day last until I can get some comprehensive read posts done later this week, as unfortunately real life is taking away from my time right now

I see no reason for the day to end since the night kill will simply be put on Buj tonight so we might as well run down the clock while Buj is with us and conf town

To try and ding last scum while Buj is still alive

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And no I don’t have reads right now, I prefer to formulate reads by relooking at everything with the confirmed town and scum we have right now

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Please don’t be this way

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Well done everyone

Buj that was a textbook example of perfect PR play

Good job all around everyone, basically carried my ass to victory

The manatee wagon was an unfortunate starting point for Tor

I’d snap out of gamesoeak to congratulate everyone and thank them for playing so kind

But I’m phoneposting once again so I don’t have the time to tone correctly

I’ll probably write a more formal thank you post and discuss the game more when I get home

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Don’t be hard on yourself inferno! Nobody wants to admit it but at some point we all played not so optimally

With time things improve

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It is very bad, I’ve never seen a more claim happy town before.

If anything that’s what sent me in a rage about Eragon when i decided to flip him because he basically willingly added himself to the lynch pool that he really wasn’t on for me

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Scum thread anyone?