Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Lady Angel

guiltier than a guilty lion? that's a lie, lynch all liars

hey Lane, good to see ya back!

[GuiltyLion]

hello hello! sorry I haven't had time to sink my teeth into this game yet, I skimmed through it yesterday but gonna do a reread and bring some thoughts shortly

[GuiltyLion]

Basically the same Q goes to thor though - why vote there when there is a decent case (at least for this early) that he is the mime? It feels like you just want to jump on any wagon at all....

this feels like scum-mindset shade for the sake of shade

Thor made it clear he's down to wagon multiple people, there's a bunch of potential town reasons/explanations for this, yet you toss out this vague & indirect accusation as if that's supposed to be intrinsically scummy

[GuiltyLion]

the only good music is techno, which does not feature lyrics.

techno is dope as hell but let's not forget house music

also there's a crazy world of good indie stuff out there rn, like literally yesterday boygenius dropped three tracks and I am ~here~ for the sadgirl voltron

alright back to the game

[GuiltyLion]

not changing my vote because its real this time

wait also when and why did the lane vote become real

[GuiltyLion]

okay so I think A50, Thor, DT, probably Eragon, maybe lane all town

yes yes I am townreading all the active posters, blahblahblah

VOTE: FA_Q2
this dude is scum

also I don't really care about the Mime thing unless we lynch one, generally I feel like trying to distinguish between Mime/Mafia play is gonna be a barrel of WIFOM and not worth it

[GuiltyLion]

It is not shade for the sake of shade - it was an honest question.

Hence why I did not vote for thor when he answered. His logic makes sense though I don't really agree with it.

this is the part I was keying in on:

It feels like you just want to jump on any wagon at all....

not the question itself

If anything, DT has been the least town so far.

disagree - I liked their scumread on you, their 93, and also the WIFOM self-defense in 83 feels to me like a town thought process, scum are usually afraid to jump straight into circular reasoning like that

[GuiltyLion]

Fink I don't think 117 is wrong per se but can you tell me why you're riffing on this and why you think it's a productive argument to be having

[GuiltyLion]

okay so I think A50, Thor, DT, probably Eragon, maybe lane all town

Lane?

yes Lane - why is he scum?

[GuiltyLion]

It's not a pretty progression of thought. It reads like he found something he thinks he could paint as "wrong" and attacked it rather than finding something he thinks is scummy.
Now, yes, he may just be sloppy town, I am debating that - but to have him as town anything at this stage boggles my mind.

eh, I guess your interpretation is fair but I just got the sense reading his posts that he was genuinely confused by what you had said and was trying to figure it out. I don't think he was intentionally misrepping especially given how he backed off like you said

[GuiltyLion]

also I don't really care about the Mime thing unless we lynch one, generally I feel like trying to distinguish between Mime/Mafia play is gonna be a barrel of WIFOM and not worth it

wow i like lion this game

<3

[GuiltyLion]

Do you think I'm clogging up the thread about this? Do you want my opinion on something else in particular?

no, was just trying to get your reply to gauge what your read on Almost was and if you thought anything about the discussion was alignment indicative. felt like it could be something scum would argue about to give them something to do without actually making reads out of it

[GuiltyLion]

I haven’t seen town!A50 at all, and a lot of his posts are wolfy AF.

which posts?

[GuiltyLion]

the DT and Almost wagons are bad

VOTE: Sesq

I can sheep on this, they haven't made any serious votes or pushes

[GuiltyLion]

I epect a lot more from GL and all his posts have been short and not much content from a poster that I would expect a lot more in depth responses. All

I've done more than you this game

and what happened to the end of your post here?

[GuiltyLion]

Your posting here is different than I have seen elsewhere.

Which games are you comparing it to?

[GuiltyLion]

Your posting here is different than I have seen elsewhere.

Which games are you comparing it to?

I cant comment on that.

if you can't comment on it then you don't have a valid point at all

and like you should absolutely know better purely from a logical reasoning perspective than to make this comparison

not sure how else I can make this point but yeah there it is

[GuiltyLion]

every guiltylion post is a fluffpost and

i don't know why i didnt see it earlier.

this is a common thing that scum say when they're making up a new read btw - the reason is because you're not actually trying to sort people or read the game

[GuiltyLion]

and for another reply to FA_Q2, if you think scum!me is incapable of faking nuanced thoughts or far more content, I can provide many counter examples from completed games

I'm not efforting in this game yet because there hasn't been a lot of noteworthy content and because I haven't felt I've really needed to

[GuiltyLion]

speaking of "being aggressive", i've already stated my case and nobody has really responded to it or taken it seriously. GL completely dodged all of my reasoning, maybe the post in reference to no effort was an attempt to address it but it's REALLY weak. so yeah, vote him. i dont have much more to say but you (all of you except gl of course) have some voting to do

you didn't give any reasoning at all other than "every post is a fluffpost", which like
a) I disagree with (obviously) and
b) I did indirectly address in my conversation with FA_Q2

what else in your case did you want me to respond to? there's no substance there

[GuiltyLion]

disagree - I liked their scumread on you, their 93, and also the WIFOM self-defense in 83 feels to me like a town thought process, scum are usually afraid to jump straight into circular reasoning like that

I'm still townreading the DT slot for these reasons

and I agree with A50 that Mime!DT would never request replace out there, which makes overall probability of town!DT increase

can the three voters restate the case on him because I really don't think he's done anything scummy and I'd like a fresh take on why he's the best place for your vote

I do feel a little yucky sharing a wagon with FA_Q2

[GuiltyLion]

yeah it's feeling more and more like Sesq is more likely a mime with scum!FA_Q2 voting it

honestly I'm still fine with lynching the slot, if it's a Mime flip that's not the end of the world

[GuiltyLion]

but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime.

I just don't think those posts were all that "please lynch me", like it's literally just RVS song lyric posting. this feels like a reach and you haven't done anything beyond this vote

[GuiltyLion]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

They're both not showing me any evidence of being town

Sesq is aggressively playing scummy whereas FA_Q2 looks a lot more like he's trying to avoid the spotlight while sheeping onto the convenient wagon

It's not a connection between the two necessarily, it's just how I feel about assessing their slots and a possible explanation for the gamestate

[GuiltyLion]

agh I don't have time to post today but I know the deadline is tomorrow in ~24 hours, I will be around and posting all tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

a50 is very likely town though I can't believe this is a wagon

will review in depth tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

lane0168 - 7 - Fink, Jingle, Thor665, Eragon, Almost50, FA_Q2, lane0168

I think you have at least one maf on this wagon - I will state again that I'm pretty sure FA_Q2 is scum here

VOTE: FA_Q2

Mime is either gonna be in the early adopters (Fink/Jingle/Thor) or probably avoiding the wagon

I think hypo claiming is a bad idea - just gives away who is not the watcher - and if the watcher has any results then they should just out them now. I'm against no lynch as well, seems like that's giving way too much power of this game to scum

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not upset about the night kills as well, but I also was surprised to see Thor live through the night with how hard he was pushing lane over anyone else.

this feels like vig-fishing and empty shade - do you think Thor is lane's mime partner, yes or no?

[GuiltyLion]

i have a brain fruit idea.

We have the vigi claim, and then town has a leader to follow.

Mime could try to RB the vigi, but the watcher would be on the vigi to stop the mime from blocking, and if the mime DID block then we have confirmed mime.

Same as with Mafia, they can kill the vig at the cost of 1 of their members, or let a confirmed TPR run free

actually I may need to think through this but I'm open to it

vig claim can't reasonably be CC'd and mislynched because vigs can just shoot each other, vig is conftown and hard to deal with for scum

seems fine on first pass

[GuiltyLion]

right, which is why

I'm not upset about the night kills as well, but I also was surprised to see Thor live through the night with how hard he was pushing lane over anyone else.

pings hard

[GuiltyLion]

but if Vig just openly claims I don't think that's bad for town

it's just vig being deduced with no guaranteed watcher protect that's worst case scenario

[GuiltyLion]

vig fishing - it's basically saying "vig should have shot Thor, why wasn't Thor shot"

anyone who responds to that in any way gives some insight as to whether they would have shot Thor or not if they were vig

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle no one elected you town leader

vig being deduced with no guaranteed watch protect is pretty clearly worst case scenario, objectively. vig claiming with watcher protect is far better. so you can disagree with the utility of a vig claim but nothing I said is wrong at all

[GuiltyLion]

the mime is now literally always a legitimate threat in this game specifically because you all lynched lane - we're absolutely not just no lynching until endgame. I want the hands of town's win chances in consensus and information driven by votes/wagons, not one town killing power. and you're completely ignoring advantage of a vig claim w/ watcher protect is a conftown. and 50% of instant loss is also 50% of instant win if we lynch the other mafia first

[GuiltyLion]

well Eragon's probably not Mime at least

[GuiltyLion]

actually

I went back and reread Jingle's posts (skimmed those the first time as I had no time when he replaced in and then I figured I might die last night so I never started really rereading until now)

and now I'm starting to think he's right, the set-up is dumb and no-lynch is actually the best play here

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: No lynch

[GuiltyLion]

@Eragon because I'm historically a threat to scum and my low activity play means I'd be a low information kill to the town with decent chance of being PR

[GuiltyLion]

Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia. I think if he were as good as people seem to imply and he'd been trying to solve the game, he'd be thinking about things like A50 potentially being Vig and Thor being a more likely Mime candidate.

uh, if I were scum you'd realize I'd have no need at all to post the fact that I thought I might die? like you're right I wasn't trying too hard to solve the game at that point but you're not actually pointing to anything scum-indicative here. also I am thinking about Thor being a more likely mime candidate, I don't see how that makes any sense in the context of your post

[GuiltyLion]

He wants to lynch me but with little in the way of why (that read goes back to me not jumping on a wagon on page 1 - something that is pretty standard for me and is clearly lazy) and ignores the mime and entertains the idea that lynching on the wagon would be a good idea - a wagon he is on.

see this is yet another scumpost from FA_Q2

- you haven't asked/engaged/thought about why I'm scumreading you at all, you just assume it's only what I've posted in thread. for the record I am scumreading you not at all for "not jumping on a wagon", but for early empty shade/fake scumhunting at both Thor and DT early game, a total lack of engagement with any of the more relevant threads of conversation, the laziest of all lazy sheeps onto the lane wagon at EOD, and your generally hostile/stiff tone. you also haven't expressed any townreads at all this game
- I was not on the lane wagon, so the second point makes no sense whatsoever

[GuiltyLion]

I think thor's actions yesterday make him a prime candidate for the other mime. GL is still pinging me hard as well. He wants to lynch me but with little in the way of why (that read goes back to me not jumping on a wagon on page 1 - something that is pretty standard for me and is clearly lazy) and ignores the mime and entertains the idea that lynching on the wagon would be a good idea - a wagon he is on.

wait unless all of this is about Thor and the thought about me is just sandwiched in there awkwardly?

that actually makes a lot more sense

[GuiltyLion]

{Nero, Jingle}
{Rocky, Eragon}
{iv}
{Aris, Thor, Fink, FA_Q2}

i'm thinking mime and both mafia are in that bottom tier but not particularly confident on a mime vs mafia read for any of them yet

[GuiltyLion]

GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?

I'm not saying that scum would never say that. That's a misrep

I'm saying you're pointing at me being lazy, which is in fact me being lazy, and then calling it scum. When it's not scum, it's simply lazy. You've done none of the legwork to show why me being lazy = me being scum.

When I'm scum I'm way more careful and pay attention to the thread. I don't just post whatever's on my mind like the thought that I would be NK'd. self-meta but there you go.

[GuiltyLion]

'you haven't asked/engaged/thought about why I'm scumreading you at all'
^ wtf is this bs. Now you were scum reading me for things that you have not stated in thread? I have to ask if you had a case what possible reason can you have for not posting it then complaining that I did not react to your non-existent case?

of course I was scumreading you for things I have not stated in thread? why is that a surprise? I don't post everything I'm thinking about, I just post what I think needs to be posted. And I don't really care what your "reaction" to my vote/scumread on you is, I'll only post so much as is necessary to convince other people that you're scum. The thing that I'm "complaining" about (nice smear job, btw) is that you

assumed

I had no extra reasons to be scumreading you, likely because your goal is to make me look bad rather than figure out whether I'm town and whether I have reasons for the reads that I have.

And yes, the post was worded rather poorly - those were my reasons for thinking that Thor was scummy. I did not need to state any more on you - I already posted it. I think your defense here is really bad as well - though worded poorly I have no idea how you would take those statements to be about you - the fact that you did makes me think you are being overly defensive.

is being overly defensive supposed to be scum-indicative now too?

here's a question - if I'm overly defensive, then I don't want to be lynched, then I'm probably not a mime, fair? So any thoughts on who would be my mafia partner?

[GuiltyLion]

*dual-ISOing Fink and FA_Q2*

404 interactions not found

[GuiltyLion]

also FA_Q2 still has yet to share a singular townread, hmm

[GuiltyLion]

prodge - will get to this tonight

[GuiltyLion]

Checking in
VOTE: no lynch

[GuiltyLion]

We should seriously make sure everyone has time to post at least once before NLing

To what end? If this is the game strat it doesnt matter if we check in or not lol

Also in case I die this is a super scummy post

it's like Ari isn't thinking at all from town perspective of having watcher info

[GuiltyLion]

still waiting on the no lynch

Ari is only scumreading low activity posters, "explanation" for Rocky scumread is just a dodge

[GuiltyLion]

I can go through and make a case if he ever appears again though.

like why is the case on Rocky dependent on him returning to the thread?

[GuiltyLion]

alright so I was honestly kinda trying to bait an NK with my play these past few days but that didn't work and now the PRs are out sooooo get ready for some hardcore GL engagement with this game now lads

I think Arist is the mime and Fink is the mafia partner. Aristo's last post seems like he doesn't actually want to scumread me because he's afraid of a mafia lynch that could end his game. Fink's push on me throughout this game has always been garbage and if you look through his ISO he's always asking Thor safe generic questions without ever pushing on him or having a genuine sorting-style interaction, starting with his first post:

Also, hi Thor. Any particular reason for sesq over the others?

continuing here:

To people who have played with Almost50 before, especially Thor,
Are posts like this, particularly the tone of them pretty standard coming from him? Or is this more confrontational than you'd expect?

@Fink: Mimes aim to get LYNCHED. If they could accomplish that on D1 they don't need to worry about the Vig. "Act scummy --> Get lynched" is what a noob Mime would think. I do not expect a NOOB to go about the consequences beyond that point. Planning for multiple moves hardly makes someone a NOOB.

Mafia do NOT want to get lynched. A noob Mafioso would NOT try to act scummy in the first place. If they do (in order to avoid being lynched) then they are NOT a noob either. NOOB NOOB NOOB. A Newbie who has not yet developed the sense to plan ahead for multiple steps and will only go for the next move is what I'm talking about.

here, he tries to subtly push the idea that Thor is a mime rather than mafia:

Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia. I think if he were as good as people seem to imply and he'd been trying to solve the game, he'd be thinking about things like A50 potentially being Vig and

Thor being a more likely Mime candidate

.

more random questioning that doesn't go anywhere:

By the way, Thor,

I didn't really want to say till he had a chance to respond to me calling it laughable - that he doubled down on it reads as scummy to me.

Basically his case is 'Thor is scum more than other people voting Lane because Thor tried to get me onto Lane"
Which is all well and good as a theory case - except, as I pointed out in my defense, i also tried to get him onto DT.
He then counters it by quoting me doing *exactly what I said I did* but then handwaves it by pointing out that in debating him I used Lane as my example as opposed to DT as my example which...somehow means really I was clever Lane Mime partner, mwah-haha...?
It's really bad and shows blindness/not actually caring.
I think he's probably some value of scum for that play.

Why is this Rocky laziness scummier than GL laziness? I think you're saying that it's manipulative and so more of a scum mindset, right? But why is GL not pinging you as manipulative?

Like you put GL on the level of IV and Eragon and I don't get it.

[GuiltyLion]

my main problem is IV is a total wildcard... I remember generally vaguely townreading his early game but nothing that is impossible to fake, I'd like to know where his head is at now

[GuiltyLion]

also Eragon why the hard townread on Aristo? I definitely don't think he's town

[GuiltyLion]

one other thing to consider is that if Thor did the kill, that would suggest that he's in worse town standing than his partner, as he's the one they'd rather risk getting caught. Could maybe point to Jingle, but I don't wanna consider Jingle unless he makes it to LYLO tbh. I know I've been pushing Fink but I wanna reread and see whether he was being scumread by many others

[GuiltyLion]

yah those Thor posts you quoted actually make me think probability of Jingle being mafia ++, but the thing is his play is in that zone for me where like you're fairly paranoid but then 70% of the time it's still town and then you lynch them and then feel like an idiot when they flip town.

[GuiltyLion]

also some decent points about Aristo/Thor - Aristo has gotta be the mime IMO

[GuiltyLion]

Thor out of curiosity who do you think is the mime?

[GuiltyLion]

yah honestly you definitely should have pushed it for a bit without claiming to see how people react to a push on mafia

but too late now no sense in worrying about it

p-edit: even if it were obvious, scum would still have to be careful about navigating it and that caution may have showed in their posts

[GuiltyLion]

literally Eragon is the only player I'm going to interact with today until I'm dead

[GuiltyLion]

but if the mime is blocking the mafia then you're only going to catch the mime and not the mafia, right? I'm assuming a roleblocked mafia won't show up as visiting another player

setup seems pretty silly lmao

[GuiltyLion]

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

I'm not really following this part - why wouldn't town and mafia both just agree to a no lynch and end the game on a happily ever after draw (assuming Mime blocks mafia every night)? Why should we kingmake a mime win instead?

[GuiltyLion]

I mean I guess if you're the lylo townie and you wind up with other players crossvoting in LYLO, then it's either take a 50/50 to win the game or settle for the draw, in which case the 50/50 is probably the more appealing option

but if no one's voted yet then mime isn't going to want to lynch anyone and town/mafia want to lynch eachother but not mime, so if mime gets caught via town/mafia cross-voting then draw is confirmed at that point

it's kind of making my head hurt thinking about how that plays out prior to any votes

[GuiltyLion]

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

this seems like the best option to me

[GuiltyLion]

I mean I guess if you're the lylo townie and you wind up with other players crossvoting in LYLO, then it's either take a 50/50 to win the game or settle for the draw, in which case the 50/50 is probably the more appealing option

oh wait I'm stupid, if mafia votes mime then mime self-votes and wins so this isn't a problem

I don't think anyone has incentive to vote first in LYLO. mime definitely has no incentive to vote at all

[GuiltyLion]

What do you think of 818 GL?

I don't really follow 818 or how it contradicts 808

I think you're assuming mime tries to roleblock in the world where we lynch Thor whereas I believe Mime's best play is to not roleblock and assume mafia is killing Eragon

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle I may still not be following but if we no-lynch:

1) Thor is guaranteed to do the kill since he is outed mafia and sending the partner to anywhere but Eragon risks insta-loss for mafia team
2) Knowing this, Mime's only choice of roleblock would be Thor
3) If mime blocks Thor, then they risk being caught by Eragon (who frankly should just watch Thor to account for this scenario rather than take a chance watching anyone else) which leads to Mime insta-loss.

so I'm not seeing why you're looking at probability of mime roleblockling amongst other targets or Eragon watching amongst other targets. Just doesn't seem likely or rational

[GuiltyLion]

like I guess the only other possibility is Mime could roleblock Eragon for lulz? But that just helps mafia take shots at the mime, which doesn't make sense for mime.

[GuiltyLion]

Ah sorry Jingle I don't know how I got so confused tracking what you were saying in 808 and 818 re - whether we are lynching Thor or not in each post. What you're saying makes a lot more sense now.

Unfortunately don't have time to effort post at the moment but will definitely get to it later today. I need to think a little bit more about the math behind everything before I decide what I'm on board with. Preferred lynch if not Thor is definitely Fink atm though, 854 feels like a bussing post

more to come

[GuiltyLion]

You mentioned earlier that you were pr telling to draw the kill. Do you have examples?

actually

I went back and reread Jingle's posts (skimmed those the first time as I had no time when he replaced in and then I figured I might die last night so I never started really rereading until now)

and now I'm starting to think he's right, the set-up is dumb and no-lynch is actually the best play here

GL responds that he has no reason to say that as scum, which is just the most weak-ass response ever. And scum would never say they thought they'd be the NK? Really? Does anyone think that's a good response?

I'm not saying that scum would never say that. That's a misrep

I'm saying you're pointing at me being lazy, which is in fact me being lazy, and then calling it scum. When it's not scum, it's simply lazy. You've done none of the legwork to show why me being lazy = me being scum.

When I'm scum I'm way more careful and pay attention to the thread. I don't just post whatever's on my mind like the thought that I would be NK'd. self-meta but there you go.

I figured this talk about being NK'd and my confidence in not getting lynched despite playing lazy would WIFOM the scum a bit, especially if you compare this game to my normal VT meta

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like this basically clears the Aristo slot from being Mime. Like I could see a mime hypothetically saying this but as the only post that wasn't an RVS vote before getting replaced out?

don't really see why Mime couldn't or wouldn't say it

[GuiltyLion]

I don't get why I'm everyone's preferred lynch candidate, but I'm also having trouble bringing myself to care.

this seems a little too apathetic about being lynched

don't think a mime would say this - mime would be compelled to act more like mafia against their own lynch

[GuiltyLion]

didn't realize deadline is so soon - I'm down to lynch Fink. I also don't think Mime would be an early pusher/adopter of the lane wagon - think they'd be more careful about associatives than that - and the Aristo slot still fits as likely mime to me.

VOTE: Fink

[GuiltyLion]

Not Voting - Aristophanes

[GuiltyLion]

GL has a sort of blanket discrediting of everything I say.

your entire ISO is basically pushing me and calling me scum, of course I'm going to discredit that

[GuiltyLion]

Regardless my vote was always going to be on Thor today so what does this do GL? Why are you voting Fink not literal confscum? What good does this do us?

you should actually read Jingle's posts

or if you want to start acting like mafia now, be my guest

[GuiltyLion]

Thor isnt making the kill tn regardless so that's just stupid.

Thor always makes the kill... it'd be stupid not to, unless they're killing Eragon. but mafia needs to get rid of mime more than they need to get rid of town at this stage and Eragon is no threat to mafia while Thor is alive

[GuiltyLion]

There's surprisingly little between them, just a few bits of conversation. Which makes it really interesting how GL was shading me for my lack of interaction with Thor.

from a neutral viewpoint, either we're both scummy on interactions with Thor or neither of us are scummy, you can't slice it both ways. you're trying to say me accusing you on interactions is hypocritical (as if that's a scumtell), yet knowing I'm town I have no issues with calling your lack of interactions scummy

p-edit exactly

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle is like the most likely to be town this is a bad lynch

Wait. Wait. Wait.

808 is wrong.

1v1v4 going into night.

Mime has a 1/4 to target mafia (eragon confirmed not mafia).

Eragon has a 1/5 to target the same mafia.

That's a 1/20 that we find the last mafia and win. In the case that that is true, we'd probably lynch the mafia over the mime anyway, so mime is already screwed.

On the other hand, there's a 4/5 that Eragon targets not the mafia. That's a 4/20 for Eragon to get a confirmed Not-Mafia. This leaves us with 1v1v4 with two people who can't be lynched. Mime has a 25% chance of being lynched there, but no chance of being shot, because mafia has to kill Eragon. We also can't no lynch for the rest of the game, meaning the mime can just stop the kill. This maximizes the number of times we have to lynch, which is 100% the goal of the mime. And almost certainly worth the 5% chance of both Eragon and the mime targeting mafia.

Suspicions of me boil down to three things:

I'm still alive.
Why does Thor kill?
Bad associatives with Thor.

There's three reasons I'm still alive. I accidentally VT slipped on D2 in a way that mafia almost certainly caught, two I was an obvious watcher target for most of the game, and three I was very very clearly not the mime since pretty much the page I replaced in.

Assuming Thor made the kill because he was the less townread of the two assumes two things: 1. The missing kill was not due to the mime hitting the mafia and 2. The mafia weren't using their less suspect member to avoid the roleblock. If I had been scum I would 100% have been making the kills because I would assume I wouldn't get roleblocked. Again, because I was an obvious watcher target. In b4 WIFOM, but it's really not a difficult leap to make.

The associatives with Thor bit I really can't argue down, except to say that I don't think they're half as damning as you think they are when you step back from the red colored lens of me already being suspicious.

I'm so bleeding heart town in this game that it's actually kind of sad I have to make this post.

I find this fairly convincing ^

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, quoted the wrong post. Ignore 818, meant for only 817 to be quoted

[GuiltyLion]

You'd think he would be a good NK target if he were town,

like this is simply wrong because a Watcher exists

mafia are gonna want to hunt PRs not just pick off widely townread players

[GuiltyLion]

GL, if you are town rather than Mime, please take a look at your thought process here. You're picking out things I say looking for things to disagree with without engaging with the actual main reason I voted Jingle. Try to take a step back and evaluate things rather than just reflexively finding things to disagree with me on.

what was the reason again? that Thor did the kill? I already covered this literally a week ago:

one other thing to consider is that if Thor did the kill, that would suggest that he's in worse town standing than his partner, as he's the one they'd rather risk getting caught. Could maybe point to Jingle, but I don't wanna consider Jingle unless he makes it to LYLO tbh. I know I've been pushing Fink but I wanna reread and see whether he was being scumread by many others

YOU never engaged with this line of reasoning back then despite having ample time to do so. Now all of the sudden you want to make a last ditch 24 hours push to lynch who is probably the towniest player remaining and you're trying to fault me for not suddenly pivoting on my entire read of the game state, despite the fact that you're barely making a case whatsoever? Jingle even addressed this, also many days ago, and also quoted again by me last night:

Assuming Thor made the kill because he was the less townread of the two assumes two things: 1. The missing kill was not due to the mime hitting the mafia and 2. The mafia weren't using their less suspect member to avoid the roleblock. If I had been scum I would 100% have been making the kills because I would assume I wouldn't get roleblocked. Again, because I was an obvious watcher target. In b4 WIFOM, but it's really not a difficult leap to make.

like FMPOV you've done a complete 180 on Jingle, even within the last day:

No way is Jingle Mafia, I think Mime is reasonably likely though.

as soon as Eragon indicates a desire to lynch there, yet you're trying to take some kind of moral high ground approach to shame me for not buying it. Yeah right.

[GuiltyLion]

Isnt thor basically claimed mafia? Why arent we voting him

sorry just kind of checked out / busy with rl rn will try to be better

this is so comically underwhelming that I'm almost having trouble buying that a mime would be so direct about being lynchbait. but there's really no justification for playing this way regardless of alignment

[GuiltyLion]

I still think Ari is playing a more logical mime game than IV

but the IV activity fall off is really becoming more and more of a relevant concern. I've played with town IV a few times before and I cannot remember him ever being this non-engaged

[GuiltyLion]

I need to think about Ari's motivation for insisting on calling me a mime from his POV... best I can come up with is to discourage the idea of his own slot being mime in GL/Fink/Ari 1v1v1?

Ari do you have time to actually lay out your case on me being mime

[GuiltyLion]

it's also worth explicitly pointing out that for Mime, the absolute worst case here is to lynch the Thor partner

so not wanting to lynch anyone but Thor today feels like the angle that Mime is most likely to take

fits into what Jingle was saying about Fink push on Jingle likely confirming that Fink is not Mime

[GuiltyLion]

I guess by the info gained / number of mislynches argument I'm willing to switch to Jingle at deadline if no one else checks in or budges, just in case I'm wrong. but I'm pretty sure that's hitting town here

[GuiltyLion]

Does anyone need the reasoning for why any of that is objectively true?

yes? 2v1v1 (or 1v1v1 for that matter) isn't "objectively" a kingmaker/draw scenario... if town lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch mafia or mime. If mafia lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch town or mime. It's a kingmaker if everybody openly claims but I highly doubt that's how either mime or mafia would play that out.

I agree on lynching Thor today but mafia would be dumb to shoot anywhere outside of Eragon as that leads to insta-loss if they're caught. What Thor said ^

I kinda think this might be a townslip on Jingle's end

[GuiltyLion]

if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.

I almost feel insulted by this but hard to see it as anything but AtE

[GuiltyLion]

IV - Mime
Fink - Mafia
Jingle - VT
GL - VT
Eragon - Watcher

[GuiltyLion]

Except... 2v1v1 is a scenario in which only the mime can be lynched.

this isn't really true

it's true only if mafia refuses to lynch and mime successfully roleblocks mafia at night, otherwise it turns to 1v1v1 (or 2v1 if mime NK'd)

so therefore mafia cannot play as if they are openly mafia with 4 alive, otherwise they are opting into the draw and guaranteeing that they can't win

which means mafia has to act like town which means mafia has an incentive to entertain the idea of a vote/lynch which means a mislynch is in play

it's only a draw if mafia decides to settle for a draw

and I guess additionally town can either no lynch or lynch and hope to hit anyone but mime (if you hit town, hope for successful mime-block). both factions have hope with a no-lynch, once mime knows who mafia is then the jig is up and mafia has to try to lynch two successive townies. but in any case they are going to want to disguise their alignment and play as town, which means it's definitely not a simple kingmaker.

[GuiltyLion]

actually wait, I keep getting the 1v1v1 lylo wrong, mime never votes elsewhere in 1v1v1 LYLO so at that point it's a draw

[GuiltyLion]

oh and I guess the argument is town or mafia will never vote themselves in 2v1v1 LYLO and so it requires the Mime vote if it's not the Mime, which you're arguing Mime won't do it

ehhhh let me think about how a Mime would want to play that

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not voting Thor yet because he'll prob just self-vote and end the day and I think Eragon should have more time to post his thoughts and play. Don't really want to reassess my reads too much until we see the NK. Though I do think Jingle's reversing on his positions from yesterday in terms of NK strategy and Fink's alignment is a little weird, and the self-imposed WIFOM about who he would have NK'd is extra weird.

[GuiltyLion]

GL if you could give a basic list of what you think and why

Not a huge time-consuming ISO shit

Just straight up a sentence or two in everyone except me/Thor and the most notable AI things you see

I think IV is mime and mafia is at like 65% Fink 35% percent Jingle.

IV read is straight POE, Fink did self-vote at deadline yesterday but I also think he was pretty desperate to push for my lynch or Jingle's instead first, so I don't think that was his long term goal. Jingle is not playing to get lynched

Fink's best case for town is his genuine sounding tone/frustration in some posts, though it's noticeably thick in others. And the self-vote is a really ballsy play as mafia in that position. However, he's pushed my slot all game for reasons I have argued against and cannot understand by any town perspective, and his associatives with Thor fit the profile of S-S, enough soft engagement to make sure you're not completely avoiding the slot but no real push or drive to interact with or sort whatsoever.

Jingle has been playing a town leader game and I thought his case for his own slot being town is mostly convincing. Fink never really adequately addressed it. He has pulled a couple odd reversals on what he thinks optimal game strategy would be, at times it feels like he's being manipulative, but I haven't really seen exactly how it benefits scum!agenda more than town!agenda at any step of the way. GTMH he's just awkward town

[GuiltyLion]

If we don’t lynch your partner we lose

I think it’s as simple as thay

yeah, this is how I'm seeing it. 4p (2v1v1) is autoloss if mime doesn't vote elsewhere. 4p (3v1) we have one shot. 5p (3v1v1) means mime knows who mafia is, so they're not going to go for that lynch and it requires all three townies to nail it.

[GuiltyLion]

eh I mean I could get behind that except that would mean I'm scum (from your 'town' point of view), soo there's something wrong there. Either you're making a case for yourself being scum or it's wrong.

I can see it being a gambit from Fink if he thought he was in instaloss already

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Thor

Jingles right

[GuiltyLion]

Eragon who did you watch last night? Does that tell us anything?

[GuiltyLion]

let's gooooo

VOTE: Thor

i'm still town but will deal with the LYLO tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle what was your actual plan for winning here? You can't lynch me because IV won't vote it as he would lose, and I'm not risking a vote on IV

[GuiltyLion]

can we just vote to draw? at what point does it become HEA

[GuiltyLion]

IV any chance you wanna lynch Jingle for the lulz?

[GuiltyLion]

haven't read dead thread yet

yeah I messed up not roleblocking the previous night, was AFK whoops. glad I made the right decision ultimately though. I don't think I would have been lynched in Eragon/Jingle/IV/GL LYLO regardless, IV wouldn't have voted me and high likelihood Eragon would have caught me RBing? will check to see who he watched that night.

this was a really hard game to play. my main strategy was to try to avoid any sort of NK from both Vig and Mafia, so I was trying to ride the sweet spot of being vaguely scummy but not so scummy to get shot. It would have been interesting if I had lynched Jingle a few days ago, but back then I was still very paranoid he was mafia and that would have lost me the game, whereas Fink was super transparently obvious town.

I def think no lynching should not be allowed in a future run of this setup. Thanks for modding though KMD, the game was smooth despite a somewhat broken strategy and an unsatisfactory draw result. Lane I'm sorry I couldn't pull through for us

[GuiltyLion]

actually this feels spot on:

So true. Not a single Lynch since Day 1 which was on a mime. Even with the guilty result, they aren't likely to win. Towns entire goal was "don't let mimes win" which appears to be a success. So they set a goal other than winning the game, probably reach that goal, and probably don't win.

I really dunno what I could have done differently here, would love thoughts/feedback. I didn't want to argue against the no lynch plan because I thought that would look very mimey.

[GuiltyLion]

I was super tempted to do a last minute gambit of voting Jingle to bait a crossvote bc Mime would not do that, but Jingle was too obvtown by the end to risk IV suddenly hammering. I tried to play the 3p like I could be either town or mafia but yeah was basically just throwing hail marys at that point