Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)


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Post Post #4677 (isolation #0) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:54 pm

Post by YT2980 »

So, on the basis of the information I've gathered from the thread and the dead, here's where I stand at the moment.

Town: Kaede, OnTheMark, Ankamius, davesaz
Town lean: Dunnstral, alchemist21, Kokichi
Nulltown: RMOJ, wilks
Scum: MariaR, punreader

I like Maria R best for the lynch. Nothing in her discography of posts in this thread suggests town to me. I don't like how hesitant Maria has been to releasing information concerning the nature of her role combined with how eager she was to release information regarding its investigative abilities. Can't fathom her having a town motive in mind given the way she's played with that investigative role. Seems like exactly the type of play a scum investigative role would commit to.

Also, for why I townread davesaz,
In post 2889, davesaz wrote:Ank, Ram, and alchemist need my attention too.
I appreciate that several townies have decided that rushing to martyr me is a bad idea.
A couple days to work on these reads would be nice, please and thanks.
I can't, under any circumstance, see a scum motive behind making a statement like this. This smacks of being town to me all day, because I can't ever see scum defending several players that were on their lynch wagon as being town in one post when their back is against the wall. Why would scum ever make a statement like this?

I also can't fathom why davesaz made so many townreads when he was a lynch target. What scum motive could possibly be behind his play?
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Post Post #4678 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:55 pm

Post by YT2980 »

VOTE: MariaR
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Post Post #4679 (isolation #2) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:57 pm

Post by YT2980 »

I will admit that a lot of davesaz's play is indefensible, but those 2 things in particular lead me to think he's a bad lynch choice.
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Post Post #4681 (isolation #3) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4680, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:
In post 4677, YT2980 wrote:Scum: MariaR, punreader
Do you think scum punreader with 1 member down hard buses another member whose flip will give a hard guilty on the 3rd?
Let me investigate. 185 pages is a lot to analyze, and I'll admit I couldn't look at everything. Can you quote me where this happened?
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Post Post #4704 (isolation #4) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:40 pm

Post by YT2980 »

kaede: Hmm, well you have a very solid point regarding punreader. I don't find it likely scum performs that kind of buss on one of their partners, further implicating one of their other partners. punreader would have to be an expertly scum player to pull all this off.

I will shift him to my town-leaning region.

right now
Town: Kaede, OnTheMark, Ankamius, davesaz
Town lean: Dunnstral, alchemist21, Kokichi, punreader
Nulltown: RMOJ, wilks
Scum: MariaR

Let me revisit some of the information on rmoj/wilks, because they would be my next choices for scum.
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Post Post #4710 (isolation #5) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:03 pm

Post by YT2980 »

What the heck are these quests? I'm confused by them; never played with quests before in a game.

Also, I definitely feel RMOJ as my next scum choice, once Maria flips scum. Shall I die at some point this night phase for whatever odd reason, do pursue him next day phase. It's unlikely scum would have 2 investigative roles unless town is stacked, so that puts wilky in the clear for now.

That means
Town: Kaede, OnTheMark, Ankamius, davesaz
Town lean: Dunnstral, alchemist21, kokichi oma, punreader, wilky
Scum lean: RMOJ
Scum: MariaR
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Post Post #4754 (isolation #6) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:42 am

Post by YT2980 »

Hello, typed this up last night, because I didn’t want to stall at all to start this day phase. Especially when I feel the person who questioned me, ankamius, is town.

@Ankamius: The bulk of what I used to form my initial gamereads was activity that happened right around each D1 thru D3 lynch, using an ISO of gif’s posts in-thread to help guide me. Decided this was an excellent route to go down given 2 scum flips had already resulted from the lynches. Committed to reading 10 pages before each lynch occurred, and 5 after.

So, there are a few reasons I concluded a definite town read on you, Ankamius.

First, your follows a train of thought I can only see as town. I wouldn't see a point in a scum ankamius panicking over a D1 lynch because of a lack of info about potential associations with the D1 flip. I think a scum player would be thrilled of this lack of information, and opt not to discuss it. Whereas, town has legitimate reasons to panic about this. Thus, instant town lean.

Second, I can’t see scum continually repeating that they feel projectmatt is town on D3 when he's practically dead in the water and clearly the lynch target. And then, further, maintaining this stance after he’s lynched. If anything, given that he flipped scum, I feel any potential scum member would be seriously disincentivized from doing this, so that seems clearly on the surface to me like uninformed town, and not scum.

I also felt your case against ramcius was fair, because looking at some of his posts they don’t seem like the most town-friendly posts. Hopefully I can make up for Ramcius.

I also took a look at impossibear's posts in-thread once I seen his town flip at day start, and concluded that MariaR would have had one of the strongest incentives to have killed them, which only served to strengthen my scum read when I chose to vote Maria yesterday.

My town leans/scum leans I voiced last day phase need further content and support to help sort them out, so I am continuing to search for more, but they were tentative conclusions, based upon gut feelings from the info I previously consumed.

Please, let me know if any of my other reads concern you.
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Post Post #4759 (isolation #7) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:46 am

Post by YT2980 »

while my ipad updates to ios 11, some questions

punreader: did you target davesaz last night?
kaede: what are your thoughts on ankamius? hoping you can support my townread on them, but if you have any inklings they are scum i'd like to know.
dunnstral: who are you townreading right now?
kokichi: who are your scumspects right now?
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Post Post #4775 (isolation #8) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:28 pm

Post by YT2980 »

punreader, did you get any indication from the mod that your action failed?
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Post Post #4807 (isolation #9) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:15 pm

Post by YT2980 »

I’m officially townreading what was my strongest among the townleans, Dunnstral, for how they are defending davesaz. I feel only town would bother to defend his case right now, and I still stand by the case I proposed in about davesaz being town; doesn’t seem anybody discredited that, but I’d like to see someone try.

Also, I haven’t concluded a firm scumspect yet, but I’m leaning heaviest on RMOJ. Maria had already posted last day phase when I voted her. I would like to see RMOJ post something this day phase before I vote them.

Current reads in order of strength

K
a
e
d
e
/
Y
T

A
n
k
a
m
i
u
s

d
a
v
e
s
a
z

D
u
n
n
s
t
r
a
l

p
u
n
r
e
a
d
e
r

a
l
c
h
e
m
i
s
t
2
1

k
o
k
i
c
h
i

w
i
l
k
y

R
M
O
J
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Post Post #4810 (isolation #10) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:30 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Ankamius: fair case, BUT given that projectmatt has been identified to be an expert scumplayer by a couple different players, wouldn’t it also make sense if they distanced themselves from their scum partners in some way, shape or form? I mean, clearly mariar was implicated, but you think he’s going to reveal his entire scum team from his actions? I would expect an expert scum player to play differently than that, and not to implicate all their partners
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Post Post #4830 (isolation #11) » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4812, Ankamius wrote:I think if projectmatt masterminded whatever happened in the neighborhood and is as competent as is claimed, then I think he would have predicted how clearing both mariar and davesaz would turn out

if anything, having a strong scum player be around for that makes it
MORE
likely that this happened, because it takes some thought to reach this play
I think this is far more likely if there’s a 5-man scum team than if there’s a four-man scum team, because I feel some sort of safety net would have to be established for projectmatt to willfully commit to this. Given I’ve never seen a 5 man scum team in a game of 18, I’m going to then assume that he would not venture to take that big of a risk, considering the absolute worst case scenario for him of him and maria being caught, which actually came to fruition. Thus, I see this an awfully large gamble to take to also include davesaz in there if he is indeed one of their scum partners, which is why I can’t see this.
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Post Post #4864 (isolation #12) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:20 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4748, wilky wrote:Ugh, action failed again. Fairly obvious I won't be getting a result here.
Can you explain what you think the overall game significance of this is? I’m stuck trying to wrap my head around this myself. Provided you are town, and OTM did not block you, then this would imply a scum roleblocker variant, because honestly I can’t think of any other roles that would effectively roleblock a player off the top of my head. What’s the chances of there being 2 roleblockers in the game? One for town and one for scum? Seems very slim to me, because all that roleblocking would really slow the game down considerably, and encourage it to drag on.

Anybody else have possible explanations for what happened here, provided wilky is town?

Also, any chance OTM blocked the scum kill N1? I think it’s a possible conclusion; I see that impossibear claimed the only nightkill on N1, and it has me thinking. Did he claim a D1 target somewhere? I’ll have to take a good look at OTM’s posts.
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Post Post #4865 (isolation #13) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:27 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 1997, OnTheMark wrote:FYI if it becomes relevant N1 my replacement apparently was affected by radiation and submitted no action.

That will become relevant when I flip. That’s all I plan on claiming and I think if anyone has milk I will be your friend forever. Milk make people strong. Mark hopes people find milk of human kindness soon.
Never mind the theory about the block; just seen this post.
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Post Post #4877 (isolation #14) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:51 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4863, Kokichi Oma wrote:So who do we lynch
I’d have to say rmoj myself as of right now, but we need to hear from this slot first. A prod shouldn’t be too far away.

I’m going to investigate something real quick, maybe my opinion will be swayed by what I investigate.
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Post Post #4926 (isolation #15) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:33 pm

Post by YT2980 »

OK, after tons of unanticipated distractions, back with what I wanted to investigate.

Dunnstral aside, I think people aren’t giving the nk from last night enough weight in analyzing, so I am going to investigate and deem who I think is most and least likely to have had incentive to kill OTM last night, because usually incentives do play a factor. Let’s review some of his play from last day phase.


Possible incentives

RMOJ: because of ,
davesaz: because of , , , ,
alchemist: because of , ,
wilky: because of ,
punreader: because of

So, if I concluded based on what is presented here, provided I still feel davesaz is town (see below), then I feel RMOJ or wilky are the most likely to have shot OTM last night phase. davesaz, sure enough, has the most content against his case, but as people have thrown out my slot has been lynchbait, and I'm feeling precisely that same way about davesaz based off his play. His play is easy to lynch, which makes it all the more easier for scum to sit back and watch his lynch unfold, while not taking any active part in it. This would buy a scum member/member(s) another day, so it’s an easy plan for them to follow if they are unthreatened. If my theory here is true, and scum is sitting in the background, that would suggest there is only one scum member remaining, and it's either rmoj or wilky.
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Post Post #4930 (isolation #16) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4927, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:How about OTM was killed because their role was a threat to scum?
I concede, that's a fair assumption, but impossibear's role was also a threat to scum, and implicated MariaR, so why not look into that?
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Post Post #4938 (isolation #17) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:48 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4935, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:Anyway are we gonna wait for Jungle?
I am waiting until after he posts. And I’d think it wise we all do, to make scum uncomfortable this day phase. Let’s drag it out until after then for sure.
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Post Post #4940 (isolation #18) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:19 pm

Post by YT2980 »

davesaz, who are your townreads? i see a lot of claims that you are town in your posting, but not many reflections outwards of who is town. your townreads may have important implications moving forward, in the case you are lynched and flip town.
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Post Post #4941 (isolation #19) » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4928, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:If you think a ROLEBLOCKER is no threat to a scumteam with ONE MEMBER LEFT, then you arent thinking hard enough.
However if there's TWO MEMBERS LEFT on the scumteam it's less of a threat, so i suppose you'd be able to procure a 2nd scum candidate.
I just reread this, and it sunk in. This is a very solid point that you made that I can’t think of any contrary points to, so perhaps I did waste time analyzing that, if what I think is true is the case in that there is one scum remaining. :facepalm:

Oh well, there for posterity if that’s the case
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Post Post #4952 (isolation #20) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:21 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4945, davesaz wrote:
In post 4940, YT2980 wrote:davesaz, who are your townreads? i see a lot of claims that you are town in your posting, but not many reflections outwards of who is town. your townreads may have important implications moving forward, in the case you are lynched and flip town.
The only people I'm sure about being town are Kaede and myself, and at the moment I don't even trust Kaede to pursue town wincon.
Care to make any guesses? Guesses are better than nothing. You can’t be sure about everyone.

By that same token, technically I could say I’m only sure about Kaede and myself, BUT I’m opting to townread ankamius, you, and dunnstral based off further evidence that clicked to me. And I’m also leaning heavy on punreader being town, but need a little more to officially lock punreader in.

Now, I’d really like to see you propose some evidence that certain players are town, because I feel that would help the gamestate of course provided you’re town. Please do so when you catch a break and it’s of little inconvenience. Given you have access to the neighbourhood with ouroboros and company, you could potentially make some informed guesses and connections that we cannot.
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Post Post #4954 (isolation #21) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:07 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4953, Kokichi Oma wrote:Okay guys let's stop playing around and end the game VOTE: dave
OK, I have to put my foot down and say no to this. We all need to hear from RMOJ’s slot, no matter how long it takes, and davesaz can give a valid response to my question. Besides, I’m not high on lynching somebody I townread.

@all: this is L-2. 6 votes needed to lynch. Punreader, ankamius, kaede, AND kokichi are all currently on this wagon, as far as I know. We could use the most information obtainable out of both RMOJ and davesaz before lynching.
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Post Post #4956 (isolation #22) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:39 am

Post by YT2980 »

Any kaede OMGUS vote reads to me like it could be indignant town, because it draws way too much unnecessary attention to a scum member to think one would actually follow through with something like that. Like, inherently that doesn’t make sense. What ploy could a scum member be putting into play when they vote Kaede multiple times? What makes a town member that thinks Kaede is seriously misleading town immune to flashing a vote on her, only to hop off her wagon because of their obvious knowledge that she’s town? I struggle to understand both of these.
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Post Post #4963 (isolation #23) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:46 am

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In post 4960, davesaz wrote:I have a certain amount of free time. If y'all decide to force me to waste that time it's on you.
I notice you haven't unvoted.
Well... I don’t like this. What can I do to help here? I mean, I’m already townfending you hard, and if you DO for some reason happen to flip scum, and I’m forced to eat humble pie... but the game is still going, then I have put myself in a serious rut. I wish you would take a stance outwards outside of yourself and kaede on my question, because I’m one of two players who is actively voicing resistance to your lynch.

Besides, why busy yourself and waste all of your energy defending against cases resistant to you right now, WHEN you could help me help town out potentially, if the worst-case scenario happens? I am willing to take your townreads seriously, but only once your town flip is 100% proven. Please don’t be the reason town is left a mess next day phase if you flip town.
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Post Post #4964 (isolation #24) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:48 am

Post by YT2980 »

Your reads could be critical moving forward.
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Post Post #4992 (isolation #25) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:29 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4985, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:Well regardless all of dave, Jungle and wilky need to be policy lynched before LyLo.
Aside from dave, who is likely today’s lynch, I do tentatively agree to this plan. I see happenstance where wilky could be lying about his own role and the lack of a result to get towncred, given he hasn’t produced any seriously townfeeling content of his own, and due to my own PoE.

However, I am not OK with lynching wilky today, the next day phase, or probably not the following unless I have serious reason to because of his possible investigative role. We’ll see what happens there. I also have RMOJ at the top of my scumspect list, and I am definitely down to lead a lynchwagon there. Still, I’d like more content out of both slots that convince me they are pro-town if they are not scum, especially as we move further into this game.
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Post Post #5014 (isolation #26) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:11 pm

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In post 5005, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:Woops i didnt mean to say that out loud
Oh no kaede, you scumslipped! :mad:

I don’t think it hurts town for you to address any theories you might have, IMHO.



Alchemist: What’s daves night action? He can only know he’s blocked if he has a night action.
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Post Post #5023 (isolation #27) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:30 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5015, GuyInFreezer wrote:
5.01
Alchemist21 (1):
Dunnstral
davesaz (4):
punreader, Ankamius, Kokichi Oma
REAL MEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):
davesaz

Not Voting:
Ankamius, wilky YT2980, Alchemist21, Kaede Akamatsu


With
10
alive,
6
to lynch


Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-26 17:15:26)
Nice. rmoj’s vote has disappeared as of this vote count

In post 5022, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:Also what are people thoughts on conducting a mass claim?
I’m all for it, if necessary.
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Post Post #5030 (isolation #28) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:38 pm

Post by YT2980 »

VOTE: REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE. I don’t like your vote on dave here at all.
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Post Post #5038 (isolation #29) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:51 pm

Post by YT2980 »

RMOJ, not only do you go for the convenient vote with little-to-no backing, but you do so after giving no content for 2 days plus to start this day phase. Leaves me with no incentive but to think you’re scum who is demotivated, having lost three of their partners, and all by themselves, since I think there is only one remaining scum. The snappiness of your vote, above all, is what strikes me as scummy here. Whereas if you were town, you should have held back.
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Post Post #5045 (isolation #30) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5039, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE wrote:why should I hold back? I want to win the game so that this can be over ASAP

bad player detected
You should hold back until you have a better case established against him when he was the majority target, especially if you haven’t read all the recent pages yet, which I didn’t spot any sort of indication that you did. It’s fair if you believe that he’s advancing scum wincon, BUT the lack of proof you provided here while calling it “blatant” is what concerns me here.
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Post Post #5048 (isolation #31) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5046, Ankamius wrote:Rmoj what is your reads list in order of strength?
Echo the sentiment to see these before he’s lynched. But, at the same time, it’s not enough to encourage me to move off his lynchwagon. So, I’ll have to suggest that
no one hammers until after he provides his reads.
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Post Post #5087 (isolation #32) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:48 pm

Post by YT2980 »

OK. Why is there war going on in the last page or so of this thread? I don’t advocate this stuff; take a breather at all involved in it.
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Post Post #5094 (isolation #33) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:51 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Can we vote on the roleclaim situation? Because I only want to claim if the majority of players prefer it. I advocate it myself, so that’s 2 in favor, and 8 unknown votes.
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Post Post #5134 (isolation #34) » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:17 pm

Post by YT2980 »

so,

4 votes for the mass roleclaim, 6 unclaimed votes i think

correct me if i’m wrong
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Post Post #5143 (isolation #35) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:16 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5139, Ankamius wrote:Muchas gracias!
Sabes español? Feliz cumpleaños! Espero que tienes un gran dia.

Happy birthday Kaede as well! Wishing you a grand day as well. :)
In post 5140, Kokichi Oma wrote:UNVOTE: Dave

Does he ATE like this as maf? If not hes prob town
In my experience, only town has ever gotten offended to the point of where they want to quote their role PM, so this upholds my theory that dave is lynchbait.



To all: I have 2 flights, with an hourlong layover between the two tomorrow, so my activity level will probably be notably low. We’ll see. It ought to be just a one-day affair.
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Post Post #5147 (isolation #36) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:24 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5144, Alchemist21 wrote:Shouldn’t that be “dia gran” since adjectives come after?
Smart thinking, but gran is one of the very few exceptions to the rule. It’s a shortened form of grande that can be placed before a noun whenever. Gran is always before a noun, grande is always after.

So in other words, if it was after it would be dia grande. :P

Here’s a link that goes into further detail: https://spanish.kwiziq.com/revision/gra ... un-apocope
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Post Post #5153 (isolation #37) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:17 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5148, Alchemist21 wrote:Thank you! TIL
No problem! Glad I taught you some spanish, as i love learning the language myself.
In post 5149, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:
In post 5143, YT2980 wrote:tienes
*tengas/tenga
Si, es la forma correcta! I used the verb tenga (beyond the scope of what we had learned) in place of tiene a few times in an oral interview I had this past year, which cost me points for my grade, so I’ve been trying to avoid the verb until it’s taught, which I will learn it at some point! For now, with the tools I have, tiene/tienes is the best replacement, so I’m prone to rely on it.







And because we’re correcting, why not?
Ankamius: hablo, not habla, would be the gramatically correct use in your sentence. you were close! lo siento is a good expression to know, though.





And, where’s Wilky? This thread is deficient in his content.
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Post Post #5159 (isolation #38) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:42 pm

Post by YT2980 »

why wilky this day phase? do we really want to risk an investigative role right now? i think not myself; i’d like to give him one more shot at producing a guilty/innocent first
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Post Post #5161 (isolation #39) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:06 pm

Post by YT2980 »

i mean, wilky is literally the only claimed investigative left, to my memory. it’s an awfully risky proposition for us to hang this day phase

let’s see, i’ll confirm before posting this
wilky - miller slow cop
kaede - innocent child + ability to copy actions
punreader: non-weak hider
davesaz - miller
alchemist - item giver
rmoj - quest giver

yepperoni. don’t see no more investigatives, and i’d hazard a guess that there are no others right now because i can’t recall anyone else—from what i’ve read—producing anything of a guily or innocent on anyone else. or else, i don’t believe we would be greeted by all this confusion this day phase.
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Post Post #5177 (isolation #40) » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:41 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5175, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:if my ability would become reflexive it means it'd be targeting everyone targeting me which means anyone targeting me would get their actions copied onto everyone targeting me, which would be quite the convoluted mess.
lmao. the game moderator might get confused by what in the world would happen if everyone left in the game randomly decided to target you a given night...

not that this would happen because you’re conftown, but, like, that’d be insane
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Post Post #5208 (isolation #41) » Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:40 pm

Post by YT2980 »

i have arrived from the 2 flights safely! thanks for waiting patiently :)

punreader: don’t want to mess with quoting your atm, but that town-indicative AtE where he wants to quote his role pm says everything i have been theorizing about him, conveniently in one post. given i was already townreading him, it’s going to take a lot to overturn my townread of him, so if he is to be lynched it will have to be with people other than me on his wagon... i’m absolutely not convinced he’s scum

your points about dave are alright theoretically, but why do you conclusively figure projectmatt didn’t put at least one of his partners in a decent game position, given his supposed expertise? all-or-nothing gambiting is something mafia teams virtually never do, because the risks are as high as those of untamed wildfires reaching houses. when you sit and think about it, if dave is his partner, he put him in an awful position... thus = lynchbait in my view, seeing that it’s seemingly impossible right now to put forth another lynch option without the conversation ultimately circling back to dave
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Post Post #5233 (isolation #42) » Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:52 am

Post by YT2980 »

What’s with all this flip-flopping today? My goodness, it’s a bit crazy

@mod: a vote count would be greatly appreciated as soon as you can provide one!


Are we discounting townreads at this point? I’m not up for that, and I say that because I really don’t think dunnstral is a good lynch choice. Scumstral actively defending the davesaz lynch makes no sense for a scum member, unless they happen to be teammates which I highly highly doubt, so instant townlean on that; and plus, you got the whole maria situation where dunnstral should be cleared because he was investigated BY maria. Why would scum ever have any incentive to investigate THEIR own member? that would be NUTS.
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Post Post #5237 (isolation #43) » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5236, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 5233, YT2980 wrote:What’s with all this flip-flopping today? My goodness, it’s a bit crazy

@mod: a vote count would be greatly appreciated as soon as you can provide one!


Are we discounting townreads at this point? I’m not up for that, and I say that because I really don’t think dunnstral is a good lynch choice. Scumstral actively defending the davesaz lynch makes no sense for a scum member, unless they happen to be teammates which I highly highly doubt, so instant townlean on that; and plus, you got the whole maria situation where dunnstral should be cleared because he was investigated BY maria. Why would scum ever have any incentive to investigate THEIR own member? that would be NUTS.
Do we have proof she actually targeted Dunn? That scout thing wasn’t a real action submission.
good question, actually. if not her role, could another scum member have investigated on her behalf potentially?



In post 5234, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 5231, Ankamius wrote:dw kaede it was me all along
It would honestly be hilarious if it is you.
if it were somehow you ankamius, i’d laugh my tail off, and congratulate you because you’d be playing one hell of a game—looking as town as i’ve ever seen a scum member play.
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Post Post #5256 (isolation #44) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:00 am

Post by YT2980 »

Call me stubborn, but this one simply has other thoughts; cannot mine the real point out of dave’s role pm reaction as scum, in that it was extreme. It’s easier and more credible to believe he’s town on that alone. I never recall in any of the games I’ve played in as town or scum having seen a scum player want to quote their role pm, but I have seen it multiple times with town.

Has anybody ever seen a scum player threaten to quote their role PM? Seeing it might weaken my townread of dave ever-so-slightly, but I need to see that information firsthand to begin with.

Also, I will officially place punreader in my townpile, which currently consists of Kaede/YT, ankamius, davesaz, dunnstral, and NOW punreader. I just don’t see scumreader (or punreader, going by his terminology) putting in the kind of seriously invested town-looking effort to the analyses that he has provided with possibly only himself left, given that I still believe there is only one scum left and I will until I get an indication otherwise.

so that leaves scum possibilities in alchemist (still a townlean for me), kokichi (idk what to think of his play), wilky (not willing to lynch him today, though) and rmoj (my clear go-to option).
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Post Post #5258 (isolation #45) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:11 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5257, Dunnstral wrote:Seriously doubt dave is scum, post 5253 is really bad, Wilky deserves votes
Upon further review, agree with this wholeheartedly. Lining up lynches doesn’t ever have a good look on town, and his vote on dave has a bandwagon-y look and feel to it.

tempted to put wilky at L-1, but I will first take a look at and review any cases where I feel wilky’s role could be useful in this game moving forward, because an investigative is not something you want to mess around with at L-1 unless you have serious cause to do so.
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Post Post #5259 (isolation #46) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:29 am

Post by YT2980 »

so he claims miller slow cop

how does his role work? can someone refer me to how the slow cop ability operates?
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Post Post #5261 (isolation #47) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:13 am

Post by YT2980 »

hmm, thanks dave! he’s claimed to have been interfered with twice, right? and from what i explicitly remember reading, otm claimed to have not targeted him...

i will backtrack and actually say this is a decent lynch option to pursue today because of his investigative abilities being supposedly compromised so far. I would expect that theme to continue since it’s happened twice already, and we have no inication otherwise. Further, provided he is scum, this wouldn’t be the hardest ploy in the world to hide behind... this could all be an act, potentially. moreover, he’s been in my top 2 scumspects for a little while now; looks like both ramcius and i have found him somewhat scummy. And I think he’s more likely to flip scum than the other option, dave.

Plus, if he somehow happens to flip town, I feel his lynch will give us more information regarding the gamestate, and whether scum may actually have something of a roleblocker variant given that no one who is town-aligned from what i’m aware of has claimed to have interfered with either of wilky’s results.
If someone can claim to having interfered with wilky once AND is town, please step up to the plate now!


VOTE: Wilky
L-1


Let’s not hammer him until after he defends himself though, and people have had the time to acknowledge this.
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Post Post #5263 (isolation #48) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:20 am

Post by YT2980 »

you’re right kaede,
never mind, l-2 then!
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Post Post #5279 (isolation #49) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5275, Ankamius wrote:wtf makes wilky make any sense as scum
PoE in addition to my gut feeling that there’s a decent chance (say 30-35%) chance he is pulling one over on us all... clearly a vote for him has better impact right now than rmoj, who is my ideal lynch target.

Tell me, what makes wilky make absolute sense as town? I don’t see it.
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Post Post #5281 (isolation #50) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:59 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5280, Ankamius wrote:because that means two scum faked investigative roles

and the setup feels really awful without at least one somewhat competent investigative role

and why does wilky claim to be getting blocked all the time when his entire scumteam is sinking, or even claim cop in the first place

shit makes no sense
fuck, you have a pretty good case here... well, apart from claiming cop and the blocking which could easily be refuted, but regarding the setup and the fakes you’re spot-on.

Don’t know if it’s worth unvoting wilky, though, because something about his playstyle just feels off and makes me hesitant to want to townread him.

Eh, screw it. VOTE: RMOJ
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Post Post #5283 (isolation #51) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:06 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5282, Ankamius wrote:why

if you're going by how useless he's been, then that applies to half the playerlist still alive, if not more
it’s not how useless he’s been. it’s his vote against davesaz that concerns me, in that it felt extremely bandwagon-y when he literally had came into nowhere into the thread and immediately voted him. he was already towards the top of my priority list, and that just reinforced my scumread on him.
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Post Post #5284 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:07 pm

Post by YT2980 »

*came from nowhere

excuse me, i’m tired rn
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Post Post #5286 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5285, Ankamius wrote:is it weird compared to what he's done in the thread beforehand? this is the kind of thing I do sometimes when I'm so apathetic that I just don't really care
hard to say, what differentiates apathy when a person is scum and without partners from apathetic town?
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Post Post #5300 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:31 am

Post by YT2980 »

to all, just because i’m on v/la for a long while doesn’t mean i’m not gonna try to make a serious impact in this game. no excuses, i will have chances to provide a good bit of content, and when i have the time i will get things done in here. expect some long, concentrated posts when i get the chance. i’ve just got this posted because sightseeing and hanging with my family will take precedence over this game, as i’m in a state i have never been to before.
In post 5293, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:
In post 5291, Kaede Akamatsu wrote:Btw.
Hot take: There's at least 1 scum in (Ankamius, Dunn, YT2980, Kokichi), even if there's or there's not scum somewhere else.

Something just ocurred to me.
Fixed
Now Kaede, I can understand Kokichi even though he’s not my top scumspect, but I’m curious as to what about Dunnstral and Ankamius being scum makes sense to you? I can’t quite wrap my head around the pool of candidates you have it narrowed down to here—knowing myself to be town—and having townreads on both dunn and ank.

Now, if we get down to less than one day in this day phase, dave’s still the top suspect, and there’s nobody that has hammered dave, then I will absolutely be willing to hammer him under those circumstancs because hammering someone you have a townfeel on beats a no-lynch situation anytime, except for when it’s strategically an advantage for town. Or, alternatively, if dave does something between now and then that I peg to be severely scummy (hitting my scumdar). But, only in those scenarios.
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Post Post #5308 (isolation #55) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:34 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5306, Alchemist21 wrote:Do you have any objections to a lynch on one of the people in Kaede’s pool? I think what she’s getting at is that scum have avoided claiming because a massclaim would break the game and their claims aren’t safe. I remember pjm was pretty pissed at people basing things off mechanics, and again their role was the only scum role we’ve seen that explicitly said their flavor was safe.
This isn’t a bad theory in practice, but it would depend on 2 things. Do we have any evidence of safe claims from the other scum so far; further, did we get evidence from the prior scum flips? And, also does gif give scum claims that would make sense in the game context based on their actions? I’m venturing an ill-conceived assumption that one would not intentionally endanger scum by giving a bunch of plausible claims to town and not giving scum one as well. That would be a poor game design, and would depend upon how well gif designs this game.

As I’ve stated before in this thread, I’m all for a mass-claim personally, but there seems to be some rather unstated resistance.

There’s currently 4 votes in favor of it: kaede, me, rmoj, and dunnstral iirc. 2 more needed for me to officially state my role.
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Post Post #5310 (isolation #56) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:57 am

Post by YT2980 »

interesting, thanks for bringing that up alchemist! i’m not quite sure what that indicates. but i do know flavor is uniquely attached to a role, so that makes me think that maybe his safe claim was actually his own role, minus any scum association.

was this in the role pm of the other 2 flipped scum? because then i would abaolutely be a massive advocate of a mass-roleclaim.
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Post Post #5324 (isolation #57) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by YT2980 »

davesaz, i have to ask you something. in the event you are mislynched, what do you feel is the best plan for town moving forward?

dunnstral, what makes you lean towards a townread kokichi? would like to keep whatever evidence you might have for my files, given you’re the only person i can remember stating a townfeel for kokichi.
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Post Post #5325 (isolation #58) » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by YT2980 »

oh, and since the rules in the op state i need to bold a
V/LA
, here goes.
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Post Post #5337 (isolation #59) » Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:43 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4768, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 4759, YT2980 wrote:dunnstral: who are you townreading right now?
Punreader, probably dave and kokichi too

VOTE: Alchemist21
Dunnstral: right here. It wasn’t a particularly strong feel you stated, but I’d still be interested if you have anything.

rip davesaz—still think he’ll flip town.
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Post Post #5349 (isolation #60) » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:25 pm

Post by YT2980 »

hmm, interesting that no one other than kaede died last night. from what she said and her role pm, i take it she would have had the ability to pass a nightkill onto someone else. idek what the fact that there was no other nk indicates regarding the gamestate. thinking it’s a possibility she did not submit anything :-/

which would lead me to ask: what’s going on with town this game? let’s not check out until our job is done, and our job is to find the last scum member(s). seriously have to admit that i’m fearing scum, though, if it’s plural at this point.

i still think jungle is scum, VOTE: RMOJ.
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Post Post #5353 (isolation #61) » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:40 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5350, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 5349, YT2980 wrote:thinking it’s a possibility she did not submit anything :-/
I think it proves scum roleblocker
possibly. or it could be she submitted no night action. she seemed kinda checked out last day phase, especially towards the end.
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Post Post #5365 (isolation #62) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:25 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 4745, GuyInFreezer wrote:
OnTheMark, Strong (
Commonwealth Strong Roleblocker
), was killed Night 4.


Spoiler: Role PM
Strong
Welcome to Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition!


You are
Strong (
Commonwealth Strong Roleblocker
)
.

Image

Strong wanders to find the secret of human strength - the milk of human kindness.





Abilities:
  • STRONG SMASH!:
    Your action precedes ALL action resolution.
  • HUMANS WEAK!:
    Your target is roleblocked for the night.



Win Condition
  • Eliminate all who are sided with the
    Institute


Kaede Akamatsu received a quest to help out the settlements!


Day 5 deadline: (expired on 2018-06-26 17:15:26)

In post 5361, Alchemist21 wrote:
In post 5350, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 5349, YT2980 wrote:thinking it’s a possibility she did not submit anything :-/
I think it proves scum roleblocker
I agree with Dunn. Kaede’s post history shows she’s been constantly active since the Night Phase started. There’s no way she forgot about this game. It’s weird YT keeps pushing the “she didn’t act” perspective.

I’m conflicted on Wilky. He has a pretty convenient cover for why he has no results yet, but the biggest thing making it hard to see himas scum is that Miller counterclaim. I do remember others thinking he backed off it pretty easily though. I need to reread his early posts.
i had never played with kaede before this game, so i don’t know how a checked-out mentality would affect her during the night phase; i’ve seen disinterested townplayers fail to submit night actions quite a few times when they’ve felt checked out before—so that was my basis along with other theories presented below.

and, for the record, i do feel it’s quite plausible there’s a scum roleblocking variant, but i’m having a tough time thinking it’s a roleblocker strictly and that’s because of otm’s role flip. 2 roleblockers—1 for town and 1 for scum—hardly makes sense at all in a game where no power role action similarities have been drawn yet (in claims or flips). looking at the flips in gif’s iso and claims posted in kaede’s , closest I see as far as role actions go is projectmatt’s rolecop and wilky’s miller slow cop, but those are clearly quite different roles. and, of course the miller aspects but the problem i have is that those are modifiers that do not directly affect a particular player’s night actions, just how they’d show up upon being investigated, so i can’t count them as similar night actions. nothing leads me to think a roleblocking ability would be the exception to the rule.


besides, if we do actually hypothesize that there IS indeed a scum roleblocker variant in play, then wouldn’t that imply wilky is almost confirmably town? i’m conflicted right now on how that would imply he’s scum. the only plausible theory i can gather is that he would be the scum roleblocker-variant himself, but that doesn’t make sense because nobody else claims to have been tampered with from what i know, so what scum incentive could he be catering to given the evidence we have? it’s making less sense the more i sit and think about it.

since i posit that a scum roleblocker variant is looking likelier, then i feel safe elevating wilky up a slot on my town-to-scum hill ahead of kokichi, because he’s the direct proof from which we derived the theory of there being one in the first place, and kaede submitting no night action is unlikely. hoping to lock someone else in as town as this day phase progresses. i’m thinking alchemist is probably who that would be, but i need to iso him again.

regardless, i’m not in favor of a quicklynch today, so let’s mind that wilky is presently
L-2


colored reads coming in a sec
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Post Post #5367 (isolation #63) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:45 am

Post by YT2980 »

Y
T

A
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D
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w
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wilky's play does admittedly feel off which is why i can't quite bring myself to townread him, but theory about there being a scum roleblocker in play--if further supported--is a convincing clear for him.
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Post Post #5376 (isolation #64) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:27 am

Post by YT2980 »

@kokichi: curious what is your official reasoning for voting me. i don’t spot that you stated one. i’d like to see some original content from you that suggests to you that i may be scum, if you can dig some up. that way, i can form a better view of whether you are town or if you are scum that is voting me.

@alchemist, i’m thinking we should flavor claim AND roleclaim, as i believe kaede’s official will in this game.
If nobody raises open objections to roleclaiming in the next 6 hours, I’ll gladly be the first volunteer of the 4 remaining unclaimed (dunnstral, ankamius, kokichi and i), to claim my role.


i will openly flavor claim now, though. my character’s name is vault-tec guy, lmao
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Post Post #5381 (isolation #65) » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:16 pm

Post by YT2980 »

hell with it, i’ll just claim. i took care to crumb my role inconspicuously last day phase anyways, and i see over half the players from the vote on it i asked about last day phase have at some point or another been in favor of a mass roleclaim.
In post 5308, YT2980 wrote:
In post 5306, Alchemist21 wrote:Do you have any objections to a lynch on one of the people in Kaede’s pool? I think what she’s getting at is that scum have avoided claiming because a massclaim would break the game and their claims aren’t safe. I remember pjm was pretty pissed at people basing things off mechanics, and again their role was the only scum role we’ve seen that explicitly said their flavor was safe.
This isn’t a bad theory in practice, but it would depend on 2 things. Do we have any evidence of safe claims from the other scum so far; further, did we get evidence from the prior scum flips? And, also does gif give scum claims that would make sense in the game context based on their actions?
I’m
v
enturing
an ill
-conceived
a
ssumption
t
hat
o
ne
w
ould
n
ot
i
ntentionally
e
ndanger scum by giving a bunch of plausible claims to town and not giving scum one as well. That would be a poor game design, and would depend upon how well gif designs this game.

As I’ve stated before in this thread, I’m all for a mass-claim personally, but there seems to be some rather unstated resistance.

There’s currently 4 votes in favor of it: kaede, me, rmoj, and dunnstral iirc. 2 more needed for me to officially state my role.
i’m vault tec guy, vanilla townie.

@alchemist: i think claiming is undeniably more beneficial than withholding at this stage in the game, because scum is very likely down to one member, and it can’t hurt us towards finding what is probably the last remaining scum member.

i personally definitely think ankamius, dunnstral, and kokichi should all claim.

p-edit: damn punreader, you have a very cogent case about rmoj. his powers in addition to roleblocking would be an insane combination to give to scum—i don’t know how that escaped my attention. i still believe it is likely there is only one scum member alive.

i’ve reached a point where i’m utterly confused. will iso and reconsider some things when i have access to a computer
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Post Post #5384 (isolation #66) » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:53 pm

Post by YT2980 »

happy birthday, dunnstral!

pursuing a particular form of analysis currently; some results will be posted soon (if not tonight, then tomorow for sure)!
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Post Post #5403 (isolation #67) » Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:16 am

Post by YT2980 »

UNVOTE: RMOJ
forgot my vote was on him until rereading this day phase, TBCH.




here’s a solid town case for wilky, based in large part on information that i had not yet fully consumed. i wanted to investigate him fully anyway because i pushed him up my hill from town-to-scum:

: counterclaiming miller in his very first post in thread serves to make his claim credible enough—upon first glance—to beget town points. the thought process behind it seems like one town might pursue. and plus, even if he is in fact scum, i can see little scum incentive/thoughts of a scummy agenda lurking beneath counterclaiming someone who he’d then have knowledge of being town, given the mod has made it clear that this game is straight-up commonwealth vs. institute in the OP and in our commonwealth role PM.

: makes a potentially solid case for himself being town, in that gif is a mod that has apparently had 2 town millers before, and that it wouldn’t make sense for him to have a scum miller and a town miller in this particular game. Occam’s razor would theoretically uphold this statement, in that it would be easier to assume they are both town if this was already the case in a gif game before.

: looks good for wilky that impossibear had an early townlean (2nd largest townread, down to alchemist) on him for the way he came in right away and ‘challenged dave’ from the get-go, as though he is trying to catch someone in a lie. hadn’t caught this point before, but it’s fairly solid and still remains. plus, impossibear correctly predicted there was definitely one scum on the first 5 votes for wilky—as Maria R’s flip now indicates. further on in this post, impossibear states a read of thinking wilky is 100% town—in that he feels his incentive for counterclaiming was town-oriented because of having “something confirmable that could catch scum”, and
that wilky backed it up with excitability and confidence. further, impossibear states “it doesn’t make sense to not only throw yourself into the spotlight but do so against 1 person you would know is town. it doesn’t end well for scum there.”

: wilky acknowledges that even though as of this post he felt my slot was scum and he voted me in this post, that ramcius made a post that was “towny af.” it’s often a difficult thing for scum to acknowledge something like that, in my experiences, in spite of laying their vote on someone, so put this in the possibly townpile.

: wilky serves a very solid rebuttal to ramcius’s stance of “it going without saying” that scum have fakeclaims by stating that one “can’t say it goes without saying” unless it’s confirmed by flips or the game mod.

scum having 2 investigative roles is also an unlikely assumption by occam’s razor, and wilky claimed slow cop as his role ability.

Next up: I would like to investigate a town case for Kokichi, since he is currently leading in votes.

I will state I am OK with waiting to lynch a possible scum—rmoj or a possible scum—alchemist, so my vote will probably land in one of the 2 directions between kokichi and wilky, given my current townreads. I’m definitely leaning towards kokichi atm.
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Post Post #5413 (isolation #68) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:07 am

Post by YT2980 »

Here’s a towncase for Kokichi (I’ll note that he replaced in for verylazy)

in : verylazy drops a solid point that policy lynching miller claims is inherently a bad idea, in response to tchill13 (the player punreader apparently replaced in for). also, being against policy lynches is oftentimes a town motive.

in : i see kokichi asks a solid question concerning now confirmed-scum MariaR, in that it didn’t make much sense for MariaR to scout Dunnstral, who MariaR acknowledged she can read better than anyone else on the playerlist in

/: kokichi demands for mariar claim, but threatens to day vig her if she doesn’t. the threat here has a possible interpretation of being ‘t vs. s’—with MariaR being the S in this scenario—obviously.

: a reaction test on now confscum maria looks good on paper.

That’s all I got. This is a relatively weak towncase, in that there is not a lot of defendable ‘clear’ town motives—and it’s that lack that has likely kept Kokichi out of just about everyone’s townread pile, including my own.


Kokichi, I encourage you to stick up for yourself and create a towncase to boost my currently weak stance on yourself. Or anybody else, feel free to. In the meantime, I am going to construct opposing cases of wilky being scum, and kokichi being scum.

But this case is comparably weak to any of the other towncases I have defended, and heard from the points of others. I am definitely tempted to L-1 you, but I will wait until I feel solid about you being scum, and it’s going to take a little more analyzing before I can reach that point. I also would love to hear someone else or yourself presenting a case for you being town—if that is obtainable.

Next up: the case that Wilky is scum.
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Post Post #5418 (isolation #69) » Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5414, Ankamius wrote:YT2980, be very careful about your points early in the game about the miller claims or how to play out the game at that point

It's a very easy way for scum to pick up townpoints (this is where my initial scumread on Alchemist21 came from and how I fell for townreading MariaR early on) without actually helping the game forward since it's all stuff that
someone
will eventually throw out there.
actually, that seems a solid point, but it took me reading this a few times to understand it. basically, merely making observations about something like that which isn’t gonna push the game forward at this point is vague, and something scum might do. did i get your drift? i think i did! correct me if i didn’t.
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Post Post #5433 (isolation #70) » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by YT2980 »

update: double the scum cases coming tomorrow — both wilky and kokichi, so don’t hammer until then. today has been outstandingly busy, so apologies for the delay.
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Post Post #5438 (isolation #71) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:11 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Here’s wilky; Kokichi upcoming.

Spoiler: the case that wilky is scum
  • credibility of counterclaimed miller role modifier is limited by davesaz’s townflip. i say this because ultimately the idea could have floated into wilky’s head—if scum—to counterclaim this to try and force a mislynch on dave, while also clearing himself of any potential liability to a cop result from someone else. i find this plausible
    because
    he eventually claimed slow cop himself; a miller modifier added to a cop role is just weird for me when trying to interpret the significance of such. but, this would be a valiant scum gambit from wilky if i’ve ever seen one, in the case that he is scum.


  • : wilky states thinking that either of the milers being scum is far-fetched, but decides to retract his own logic in voting dave last day phase in , IN SPITE OF
    still
    thinking dave is town, as this post already suggests. and if scum, he also tries to line up another lynch in , by saying ‘once davesaz flips town we lynch dunnstral!’ now, my thoughts on this is he
    might
    have been thinking ‘let’s go ahead and capitalize on this mislynch, then try and encourage another possible mislynch tomorrow.’ he’s also notably going the path of least resistance—with dave yesterday, and kokichi now (in spite of seemingly asserting that dunnstral should be the lynch back-to-back days). which may be attributed to a thought process of ‘all is well and good as long as i’m alive’, in wilky’s book (???). would fit a script of survival tactics to the tee.

  • : wilky says a maria scum flip would heavily imply dunn as town, but has voted dunn after maria’s scum flip, and did so before davesaz was lynched in . this progression—in particular—reads as having a possible scum incentive to me personally. voting dunn the day after you say he’s very heavily implicated as town following a certain player’s scumflip that actually happened to be scum is a very strange progression for a potential townplayer to maneuver through. but, it’s
    especially
    weird when you do this on the day phase directly after this is said.
and that’s that, not quite strong enough to debilitate any town stance on him, but it is strong enough to assert that he is not one of the players that can be considered decisively town at this stage in the game—at least according to my view. but, admittedly in the town case i made for him, occam’s razor is a tough concept to defeat, and so it is easier to assume he is town.
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Post Post #5439 (isolation #72) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Spoiler: the case that kokichi is scum
  • : voting somebody because two people told you to do seems to me to be inherently scummy, because
    they
    would take the blame, and not you, shall this person be lynched. An easy way excuse for scum to park on a vote wagon.


  • : asking about a third party is strange, when our role PM’s explicitly state to eliminate all members who are sided with the institute, which presumably would then be the ONLY scum faction. if you read your role pm, why are you asking this?


  • : there would be nothing better for scum than to get a conftown from a conftown player. :-/

  • : AGAIN, following Kaede, so Kaede takes the blame if all goes wrong. I remember a few other times off memory that kokichi did this, and it makes me cringe in the case that this is not coming from scum.

  • : didn’t join the maria lynch wagon until it was inevitable (actually didn’t try and vote her until after she was lynched, oddly enough).

  • : vote on dave last day phase seems like it could be an attempt to try to line up lynches, similarly to what wilky did last day phase. expresses desire for wilky to be gone after dave—which seems like a very easy mislynch route if kokichi is scum and both are town.



I’m not quite ready to hammer just yet, but i favor a kokichi lynch. there’s a few more things i’d like to address first.
intent to hammer, however
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Post Post #5440 (isolation #73) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:24 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Questions
:
@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?
@alchemist, can you put out a reads list? if you are town, i’m thinking you are on scums nk list between having a power role and possibly being conftown next day phase, so this would be great!
@dunnstral, at this point, who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #5441 (isolation #74) » Fri Jun 29, 2018 4:25 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5440, YT2980 wrote:
Questions
:
@Kokichi, who at this point is conftown in your book?
this is, of course asked, in case you are town. if you are scum, feel free to dodge the question.
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Post Post #5455 (isolation #75) » Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:28 pm

Post by YT2980 »

@alchemist: i will definitely consider looking into punreader next day phase in the instance it is guaranteed that neither you nor kokichi is scum.

still would like to hear from dunnstral on my question, so not
quite
comfortable with this day phase ending yet.

@punreader: do you still plan on posting an analysis this day phase? would also like to wait on that if you are.
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Post Post #5457 (isolation #76) » Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:58 pm

Post by YT2980 »

@dunnstral, i agree that alchemist looks more town, and also that he probably is town given that rmoj’s cop result only reveals alchemist if he’s on the end-of-day lynch wagon. and he seems unthreatened being on the lynch wagon right now, so... that’s quite towny

I’m still townreading ankamius, but that’s a matter we can all hash out next day phase if it comes to it. In short, I will say her reactions to 2 of the scum’s lynches screams town to me, personally. Would be hard for scum to fake.
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Post Post #5471 (isolation #77) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:37 pm

Post by YT2980 »

so, we are clearly all in agreement that there’s only one scum remaining. there can’t possibly be 2, can there? because that would potentially change the mylo/lylo situation.
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Post Post #5472 (isolation #78) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by YT2980 »

i know it’s hard for me to envision a 2-man team at this point, so i’ll continue to assume there’s only one.

@wilky: you have a valid point, but it doesn’t rule out you being impatient and just wanting whatever lynch you can get, because that could certainly drive a scum member to do something they wouldn’t otherwise do, especially since the last day phase seemed like it progressed fairly slow. When did you lay your vote down, anyway?
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Post Post #5473 (isolation #79) » Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:49 pm

Post by YT2980 »

i’ll answer that myself actually. you did so about 6 days into the day phase, so maybe not impatient.
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Post Post #5474 (isolation #80) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:44 pm

Post by YT2980 »

oh wow, this thread is just bustling with activity. i can’t keep up.

and i’m sure everything will just explode after this post

VOTE: Kokichi; gut says this may be a scum slot.

plus, if punreader had anything, i’m sure he’d have brought it in here by now. will definitely have to look into him if kokichi flips town.
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Post Post #5479 (isolation #81) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:57 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5475, Ankamius wrote:oh

I was going to ISO wilky after work

welp
You still have time. That wasn’t the hammer, but it was L-1.
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Post Post #5480 (isolation #82) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:00 pm

Post by YT2980 »

Would definitely like to see that from you, @ankamius.
In post 5476, Kokichi Oma wrote:funny how everyone's 'gut' says im scum.
Sometimes, gut reads are some of the best reads you can get. Time will tell if this one pans out
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Post Post #5482 (isolation #83) » Mon Jul 02, 2018 4:00 pm

Post by YT2980 »

UNVOTE: Kokichi
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Post Post #5489 (isolation #84) » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:38 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5487, Alchemist21 wrote:Where is RealMen at?
probably in a jungle.

i’ll counter that. where’s punreader at?

i think i’ve seen town self-hammer before, actually.
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Post Post #5500 (isolation #85) » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:56 pm

Post by YT2980 »

so, ankamius: where do you stand on wilky right now? do you feel he’s more likely to be scum or town?
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Post Post #5501 (isolation #86) » Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:57 pm

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5469, Ankamius wrote:
In post 5467, wilky wrote:Tell me this Dunn what would scum me benefit from L-1ing Dave who was definitely mislynch bait whilst saying he'd flip town? Surely a scum wilky would try push a lynch elsewhere and leave Dave for that mylo/lylo.
I'm almost wanting to locktown this because of how blatantly scummy it is
i seen this, but in light of your recent posts i’m not quite sure where you stand.
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Post Post #5504 (isolation #87) » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:12 pm

Post by YT2980 »

a good chunk of wilky’s play is definitely sketchy, but his towncase is just as strong if not stronger than his scum case imo, so he’s a slight townlean for the time being for me. would reconsider if kokichi flips town, however
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Post Post #5514 (isolation #88) » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:20 pm

Post by YT2980 »

@punreader - fair enough! would like to see some more content from you this day phase, including revised reads if you can produce them. since you intend to come through, i intend to exert whatever power i can to let this day phase run a little longer.
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Post Post #5516 (isolation #89) » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:05 am

Post by YT2980 »

@wilky, sure thing

i’d order it like this atm from most likely town to scum.


alchemist21 (him being on the lynch wagon as the last scum would be foolish. thus, he’s pretty much town or he’s dead next day phase).
......
ankamius
dunnstral
^my own two hard townreads.

....
likelier to be town than not to be
punreader
wilky
....
idek
rmoj
.......
.......
likeliest to be scum
kokichi


would definitely have to reconsider some things in the event kokichi is to flip town, though.
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Post Post #5520 (isolation #90) » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:22 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5517, wilky wrote:Is there anything worrying you about Pun that drops him out of the first two brackets? I know you've expressed concern at me since replacing in but I don't recall any concerns you've had on pun.

If no one claims a result from the quest tomorrow does that render rmoj confirmed scum in your eyes?
a). his claim and him not yet analyzing things when he said he would do so at the start of the day phase. if he follows through with it and i like what i see, my view would change.

b). yes; but if it shows up, he’s nearly conftown. luckily, i’m guessing we won’t be having another day phase, but we’ll just have to see how things go.

his gameplay has had that strange gut feeling of lurky scum to me, so he’s been on my radar for quite some time. i can try to go into more detail on precisely why i have suspected him later this day phase if i can rob enough time for it.
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Post Post #5526 (isolation #91) » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:28 am

Post by YT2980 »

In post 5522, wilky wrote:
In post 5520, YT2980 wrote:
In post 5517, wilky wrote:Is there anything worrying you about Pun that drops him out of the first two brackets? I know you've expressed concern at me since replacing in but I don't recall any concerns you've had on pun.

If no one claims a result from the quest tomorrow does that render rmoj confirmed scum in your eyes?
a). his claim and him not yet analyzing things when he said he would do so at the start of the day phase. if he follows through with it and i like what i see, my view would change.

b). yes; but if it shows up, he’s nearly conftown. luckily, i’m guessing we won’t be having another day phase, but we’ll just have to see how things go.

his gameplay has had that strange gut feeling of lurky scum to me, so he’s been on my radar for quite some time. i can try to go into more detail on precisely why i have suspected him later this day phase if i can rob enough time for it.
Is the bolded part in relation to rmoj?
yes it is, a = irt top paragraph of your post, b and anything below it = irt bottom paragraph of your post. i see how i made that a bit confusing, apologies
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Post Post #5536 (isolation #92) » Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:08 pm

Post by YT2980 »

@ankamius: lmao. your dream made me laugh at the very least! i’m sorry to say your using a dream-catcher didn’t help us hone in on the real remaining scum member, though :(

pre-warning that i have a 5-hour flight on sunday, so i won’t be too active that day. it is also the day my official v/la ends, so i should be more active afterwards = yay! i should be able to pop in sometime tomorrow, though, in spite of sunday’s plans.

let’s see if i can share some thoughts on why i’m still questioning rmoj here tonight. if i don’t get it in by the time i retire tonight, promise to share those thoughts tomorrow when i get the chance.
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Post Post #5541 (isolation #93) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:24 pm

Post by YT2980 »

my rmoj case will not be finished today with limited time when he’s possibly conftown next day phase anyway and he’s absolutely not gonna be today’s lynch target, but i’ll just put some of the info i found sketchy out this day phase. there was quite a lot that made me feel unsettled when i first iso’d him, and that’s largely stuck with me.

- my idk read on rmoj is purely based on his gameplay. he’s been very lurky ever since i replaced in, having very little attributable content. naturally, that concerns me as a lategame replace-in. he’s been on both prospective lynch wagons, sure, but he hasn’t done much other than that—aside from the quests which i still don’t quite grasp.

Spoiler: part of the case on rmoj
  • now, some bit of iso suspicion has come from the post he made about maria in only his 3rd post in the thread in , his very first scumread, as he never followed up on his sr of maria with a vote of any sort. if he believes it to be scum, he should vote it, right? the fact that this was his first scumread, it was correct, and he never followed up on it gives me knots in my stomach.

  • more, where he questions the legitimacy of an ic, i interpret this as having a clear possibility of a scum motive/attached scum train of thought. he utters thinking it might be ‘fake’. well, this initially read to me as though he may have been thinking, and impulsively posted something while considering “what, if anything, can i do to nullify this possibly conftown player?”, instead of just taking things as they were stated BY the mod.

  • further, is not town-friendly in that he says he is playing to ‘obscure’ his playing style, and comes as a clear contradiction to his , where he says he’s easy to read with engagement as town. with the second point, i’d beg to differ based on what i’ve seen from him firsthand. and this is scummy because he stated this himself, and it has not held up at least to me.

  • next, the fact that some of his his gameplay has seemed overly conciliatory regarding certain players who have voted him from what i remember pings me — because i feel like he could be using that to his advantage to pull one over on us all. it feels like it could be scum pocketing—and that’s a sort of vibe you can get that’s unmistakeable.

    a large part of this case lies in the minute details, folks!


  • let me relook into kokichi’s iso quickly specifically looking for scummy train of thoughts. if i find a good one, i am ok with ending the day with a lynch there.
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    Post Post #5542 (isolation #94) » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:59 pm

    Post by YT2980 »

    actually, sheeping kaede on several occasions in recent days given how long she survived in the game comes off as a scum-minded train-of-thought to me. it is so, because you are not taking any blame yourself if someone is mislynched. it’s a temporary lynchproof vest a scum member could put on while voting for someone. you should always as town have reasons for voting someone that extend beyond following another player who is conftown. this looks bad to me

    now, i say we let this day phase end and this game end with a bang by lynching scum! yes, i declare that kokichi is scum

    VOTE: Kokichi

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    Post Post #5550 (isolation #95) » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:28 am

    Post by YT2980 »

    yay, can’t wait to see this flip! i think we chose correctly.
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    Post Post #5884 (isolation #96) » Fri Aug 17, 2018 5:13 am

    Post by YT2980 »

    i had every intention of finishing this game, but then life and stress got in the way. regardless, i am absolutely thrilled that prof fridays pulled this game out! :D

    i remember that night i killed kaede; that one was tricky to perform. i had to anticipate who she had copied her role onto, which could have been me given she had me PoE’d as scum. if that was the case, i would have wound up dead. i took a big risk killing her as last scum, and i chose to jailkeep kokichi. i want to know whether she indeed targeted kokichi or no action was performed.

    prof played wonderfully off of what ramcius and i had done to cement the slot as towny. couldn’t be happier that the game ended with a win on my birthday of all days, lol! :good:
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    Post Post #5942 (isolation #97) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:53 am

    Post by YT2980 »

    In post 5925, Ankamius wrote:nah, honestly town was still with it enough to catch projectmatt and mariar got mechanically confscummed

    the only thing that slipped by was your slot, which wouldn't have lasted without YT's influence either
    I certainly tried my best! you had me psychologically cornered a few times though, but never fully attacked the train of thoughts you went down, so it did not really matter. like, for example, when you said you had a dream where it made so much sense for me to be the last scum. :P
    that dream just so happened to be right! i think it might benefit you to test those trains of thoughts out further if you observe an interesting reaction to them
    In post 5938, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE wrote:but it was commendable that all 3 players Ramcius, YT and Prof played really well. by far, the most suspicious player in that slot itself was Ramcius,
    and HE was the one doing all that distancing work.
    yikes
    not exactly all the distancing. projectmatt and ramcius did a
    great
    job together to convince others they were not partners (exception being hydras that were nk’d), but i immediately came into the thread pushing for maria to be lynched on a day where maybe a davesaz lynch could have been achieved so i did a fair bit of work in that regard as well! in fact, i was the vote that officially switched the tide into her direction if you look back :wink:



    kaede was also a little bit threatening. she said she would vote me and that i was in her PoE pool, but she never followed through. she noticed so much pushback on several wagons she joined that day, but she never joined mine which might not have had that same pushback as all the others! that would have made it make sense that i was scum from her pov :]

    there was similarly no real pushback when kokichi voted me either, but he got distracted by other wagons later
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    Post Post #5943 (isolation #98) » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:02 am

    Post by YT2980 »

    thanks for the props though, rmoj and ank!
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    Post Post #5949 (isolation #99) » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:20 am

    Post by YT2980 »

    In post 5947, RadiantCowbells wrote:
    In post 5938, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE wrote:but it was commendable that all 3 players Ramcius, YT and Prof played really well. by far, the most suspicious player in that slot itself was Ramcius, and HE was the one doing all that distancing work. yikes
    i disagree

    prof was fine,
    yt was scummy as all hell
    Please explain what exactly about my play here was scummy as all hell, as I (among others probably) would really like to know! :D
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