Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Ankamius]

Pun did you look at my setup stuff

[Ankamius]

So... almost full knowledge of the setup doesn't change or clarify anything?

[Ankamius]

Well, mainly because I was never in a spot where my scumreads were reduced down to one before today. Even yesterday, I had more scumreads than townreads. I wouldn't even be humoring it at all if Wilky didn't strongly stick out from the brief VCA I did.

I still need to go more in depth on the few things that really stuck out to me, but it just makes a lot more sense to me that Wilky is the last scum compared to Dunnstral, albeit right now only because the way their votes move around looks a lot less sketchy on Dunnstral's side.

[Ankamius]

V/LA until 7/30

No guarantees I'll be coherent enough to make headway in this game, I'll have to destroy my sleep schedule the next couple of days to make my work schedule work.

[Ankamius]

Patpat

Where were we

[Ankamius]

hm

I think I'll read through day one again

[Ankamius]

I got to the end of day 4 and it's already being reinforced that Wilky is the last scum

[Ankamius]

I think it's Wilky -> Dunnstral
RMOJ thinks it's just Punreader
Dunnstral thinks it's just Wilky
Wilky thinks it's Dunnstral/Punreader/RMOJ
Prof Fridays thinks it's Wilky/Dunnstral
Punreader thinks it's just Dunnstral

[Ankamius]

what a fucking mess

[Ankamius]

My heart of hearts really wants to say that Wilky is the last scum, it just makes complete sense to me at this stage.

I don't think RMOJ-scum would push for Punreader the way he has, or really just about anything he's done today. It's a bizarre way to try to push the game since it wasn't particularly likely that Punreader would be lynched from it.
Prof Fridays is weirding me out a bit with the sudden sheep on me, but otherwise I don't think the slot is all that scummy. I think YT through and through was town enough to make up for Ramcius' weird play before that.
Punreader... eh, I really really think I'd be dead by now if they were scum, especially since we had two full day phases since the last scum lynch. I could see why Kaede would die over me (especially since if anyone would be able to pick up on why I'd die night five, it's probably her), but I doubt Alchemist would be dead here if Pun was scum. It's far too risky.

Dunnstral... I'm not sure. I don't think the MariaR action interaction is as strong as Punreader thinks it is, but there's not a whole lot that specifically suggests the slot is particularly scummy past whatever I was death tunneling him for on day two.
Wilky just makes sense as scum no matter how I look at it; now that I look at a bunch of stuff in day one, the interactions with MariaR look unnatural and his general play doesn't look town. I can see him being scum in the setup... kind of? I'm not strong enough in setup spec in setups this complex to really make a call on that. I think Wilky makes a lot of sense as a perpetrator for the slots that are dying this game (confirmed or confirmable PRs over direct play). When I look at the vote counts, he makes sense as scum in places that Dunnstral really doesn't, at least not as much.

[Ankamius]

idk Prof

my primary scumhunting tool has been pretty useless for a lot of the game, so I can't really comment on that.

[Ankamius]

BUT

if Wilky is scum, I'm going to be counting this as a win for doing exactly what I said I'd do on day five
if Wilky is town, I'm probably going to sit in a corner somewhere and cry

[Ankamius]

tbh I just want this game to be over before undertale comes true again and I'm solo endgamed

[Ankamius]

Either way I'm like 90% confident in my townreads

I kind of don't want to attribute anything to this since it's kind of shitty and there's every possibility this wasn't the case, but it's kind of also hard to believe that YT would position himself around the confidence in the Kokichi lynch only to replace out as scum.

[Ankamius]

At the same time... I want to try to get another 200 posts so that a lot that died on night two isn't the top poster

but that would just be silly and I don't think I have another 50 posts in me before I go insane, much less another 200

[Ankamius]

er... sorry

I mean that if you're scum, you're probably sheeping

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Wilky

/deadgame

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Wilky

I will wait then

[Ankamius]

Anyways while I'm thinking of it

I will respond in kind if you go into a lot of the processes you analyze today, you're far better at doing that kind of thing without having direct input to work off of and this in general should hopefully be enough for us to lock each other's alignments

It would probably help me in general too because I find most of this game unreadable

[Ankamius]

Can you go over day five specifically when you get a chance?

I'll respond to 5760 after work

[Ankamius]

Can you go over day five specifically when you get a chance?

I'll respond to 5760 after work

this is a lie

I get distracted too easily

[Ankamius]

What are your general reads looking like right now RMOJ?

[Ankamius]

Honestly, I read through the first half or so of it... and I didn't get a while lot more than that either

Wilky still looks by far the worst out of everybody thanks to the lurking
Dunnstral had zero presence
RMOJ had zero presence
YT-slot is basically locktown from how he handled the day
Punreader... idk

[Ankamius]

I really want at least RMOJ to pop in and give more to go off of because I want to leave town in the best spot possible if wilky flips town and I happen to be killed tonight

[Ankamius]

(and before someone pops in and says that rmoj + pun dies tonight, no scum does that here ty)

[Ankamius]

Anyway

Bets on how the dead thread is feeling right now?

[Ankamius]

You + Me + Dunnstral

Aside from being a really funny lylo, it's always bad no matter who scum is, it ignores Pun's Dunnstral read and RMOJ tunnel on Punreader

You're basically obvtown
I've been most actively working with people

It just makes no sense

[Ankamius]

Being conftown doesn't mean anything if you're never going to lynch correctly in lylo or are less likely to

All it does is make the cross vote obvious

[Ankamius]

People on this site vastly overestimate conftown/obvtown status, that doesn't actually make them a bigger threat than any other player by itself. If you have enough mislynch targets and there's another player in the list you won't be able to mislynch and are the least likely to lynch your list, then they're a better kill than the conftowns

[Ankamius]

That or the other way around most likely

[Ankamius]

Idk

Hopefully it's just wilky anyways or otherwise

if Wilky is town, I'm probably going to sit in a corner somewhere and cry

[Ankamius]

eh

just let Pun decide what to do with it

[Ankamius]

you're okay lol

it's a lot easier to handle playing this game today than it was yesterday, that's for sure

[Ankamius]

Being conftown doesn't mean anything if you're never going to lynch correctly in lylo or are less likely to

All it does is make the cross vote obvious

it increases the rand chance of winning from 50% from 33%

yes but that's not entirely relevant unless scum are banking on town infighting

scum really should be going into lylo with a plan on who they want to crossvote/lynch regardless since that chaos from having two town suspicious of each other can also be bad for scum in the end too

shrug

[Ankamius]

Shrug, sure

VOTE: wilky

[Ankamius]

Then consider him extra hammered

Almost to drunk coma levels of hammered

[Ankamius]

I hope this is game over

[Ankamius]

Welp

[Ankamius]

Should've trusted my gut when I saw the progression from day five to now

Oh well, I made a huge mistake on day two that probably cemented the late game loss so I can't really complain about it

[Ankamius]

Shhhh Dunnstral I still have my strong double kill remember

[Ankamius]

How did you two react to me supporting you on dave

[Ankamius]

I think the part that fooled me more was your overall lack of presence day six and knowing that it wasn't AI

[Ankamius]

Anyways

I think if I had tried to be a rock for Kaede and pushed my wraith townread harder, I think the game would've been a lot different. The Wraith lynch was devastating in effect since it meant Impossibear had to push for the projectmatt lynch day three instead of having it day two and having them be around for a push on... potentially Ramcius?

[Ankamius]

I think the part that fooled me more was your overall lack of presence day six and knowing that it wasn't AI

It wasn't. I'd have been just as inactive as town. Arguably more.

I do confess to overextending myself a little, so I am quite pleased I have one less commitment on my hands.

I am sad the town didn't win since you played more than well enough for it and at every stage I felt guilty for lynching these players that I knew I should by all rights be defending.

Alas. 'Tis what it is.

Nah I don't think town deserves a win, the early game was a massive mess and the ones of us that were left didn't pick up the pieces well enough

[Ankamius]

You never would've gotten away with an Ouroboros lynch, he's the type of player I don't generally townread, so having that strong of a read was going to stop me from ever agreeing to it

[Ankamius]

You don't unless you know my history with both of them, which is why it's probably good that you didn't get to go that route

[Ankamius]

my history of reading Nero Cain is abysmal and I've never played with pmatt before, so

I used to be able to tell the difference between RCs towngame and scumgame, but I both don't remember what the difference is not think that it's relevant anymore

[Ankamius]

Actually I don't have an abysmal read rate with Nero Cain, but I don't have a set way of reading him like other players

[Ankamius]

You don't unless you know my history with both of them, which is why it's probably good that you didn't get to go that route

Well it ended up good for

me

...

Tbh if I had caught you on day two amongst the locktown reads a lot of people had on you, that would've probably made me even more useless after the townblock dwindled

[Ankamius]

I thought so? It might have been D3 idk

[Ankamius]

Now that I think about it, your response to my setup questions were scummy too

[Ankamius]

shrug

I don't think that's a gambit solo-scum Pun does but who knows

[Ankamius]

anyways sorry Dunn

I needed to not be bad and I ended up being bad

[Ankamius]

I think Punreader made a mistake?? I'm definitely a VT lmao.

ufunny

[Ankamius]

If it's a town gambit, then it should be obvious who scum is by now for them

[Ankamius]

So basically

You did a gambit and it just amplified the solve we already had

[Ankamius]

It's a gambit. Pun + prof isn't the maf team. Punreader was going for reactions, or so they'd have you believe. I think it was a ploy to grab at town cred - I think punreader is scum

What is the why behind the gambit?

[Ankamius]

...to who

[Ankamius]

Bringing someone else into the gambit when he's only scum would pretty quickly expose it as a gambit, so it was a reliable failure, if that makes sense. So in that sense I can understand Dunnstral's point, but I'm not sure I agree with it.

You don't understand Pun like I do

In order for it to be a scum gambit, it needs a motivation to be a play worth pursuing and it needs a problem to address.

Only RMOJ is really scumreading them in this gamestate and worst case scenario, I just die tonight and my townread can be used as a shield to stop you two from having a leg to stand on with scumreading them

Why then would they risk it all on a gambit that would immediately be known to be false by at least one town and would shake up the game when the last lynch is already highly likely to be Dunnstral

It doesn't really fit and Pun isn't a bad enough scum player to do that

[Ankamius]

How exactly would Pun explain that

[Ankamius]

The silence is deafening

[Ankamius]

nah Wilky is town

Dunn inadvertently scumclaimed

[Ankamius]

How exactly would Pun explain that

He's a pr, we're going into 4 people, we can just nolynch the next day giving us another quest for free. It's no secret that keeping rmoj alive is suboptimal when nobody is considering him for scum anyway

Are you forgetting that Pun is leashed to hiding behind RMOJ

[Ankamius]

I still don't buy Pun killing Alchemist over me regardless, so

[Ankamius]

Ah well, Ank has been game throwing since the dave lynch anyawy, gg pun

[Ankamius]

what about GIF

he's gamethrowing too

[Ankamius]

Alien forces the target to commute.

[Ankamius]

/cry

[Ankamius]

I was so done with the game that I was just going with any lead I could find

[Ankamius]

I actually did go through your slots ISO at some point on day 5 to see if there was a correlation that would show you all were killed for reads over role

Your slot was the difficult one to parse of the four...

791 posts in two game days is insane

[Ankamius]

The last 100 or so

Your slot's reads were kind of hard to find

[Ankamius]

Release my private PT too pleeeeeease

[Ankamius]

Jesus Christ town why

Your breakdown kind of didn't help, Wraith

A lot of things went wrong that made it impossible for me to get a read on the gamestate, but having the first two wagons be poisoned were very real parts of it

I was mostly with you until then

[Ankamius]

btw

I'm just going to point out

I've seen a few games that have a scum/3p lynch day 1 and an unreadable day 2

I've yet to see town win those games

[Ankamius]

not make day 2 unreadable

[Ankamius]

yes but having less scum around makes recovering from a shitfest like that harder

at least for me it does, although with how often I see town lose those games...

[Ankamius]

like I still believe town threw the game on day two by just how much crap got flooded into the thread

it completely threw me off and made me doubt my reads for the rest of the game and put me in a position where I could never get into the driver seat of the game properly when I needed to
kaede was the town holding everyone together and she lost her grip on the game on day two enough to not be able to hold everyone together enough to get everyone back on track
I honestly don't remember a single thing about day three and whether she managed to get it together enough to really hunt, but ETL was tilted off the face of the planet for a while on day one and two, so she wasn't in the best position to solve the game
punreader was ahead of the curve but ended up becoming very busy irl, and even then their reads weren't any better than the rest of ours after day four
rmoj stopped caring about the game entirely after day three
and everybody else that lived after day three was made apathetic by that point, so even if someone managed to pull things together... they have to do it by themselves with no support

a combination of apathy plus YT coming in and

drastically

improving the way the slot looked was what won scum the game ultimately, I don't think I ever would have given up my tunnel on him if YT hadn't looked as town as he did

[Ankamius]

nah, honestly town was still with it enough to catch projectmatt and mariar got mechanically confscummed

the only thing that slipped by was your slot, which wouldn't have lasted without YT's influence either

[Ankamius]

Because he was caught on d2 by quite a few players

Unless it was only RC and everyone else caught him d3

Idk

[Ankamius]

I was surprised by pmatt flipping scum because he was one of my strongest townreads

[Ankamius]

My reads are intuition, yt

The dream was genuine and it was probably my intuition realizing something that confscummed you but as usual, it never reaches my conscious brain...

[Ankamius]

sorry mwwn

[Ankamius]

Oh hey, I finally put in the legwork and I think I figured out who you are

It was surprisingly hard

[Ankamius]

Yup

I'm kind of surprised I never figured it out, but now I can't say I can read you anymore