SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[Punreader]

I said repeatedly that guac's only plausible partner was DV. Guac would have been confirmed town after the worst's flip, at least from my perspective.

Sure, from

your

perspective.

The same cannot be said of Krazy (who I had no way of knowing would be dead) and DeasVail among others.

In fact, quite the opposite.

So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy.

On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.

For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.

Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.

Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.

Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.

There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.

Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.

You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.

Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.

Krazy was a strong advocate of guacamole being the worst's punbuddy as is evident by this thought process here.

Pun I'm not sure I understand your logic that the worst is town. I can at this point follow the reasons you suspect Sho. I think it's reasonable to suspect Sho if you are ignoring her playstyle.

But why is the worst town? I don't understand.

I also feel like I'm with you on some points for Espeonage, but I feel like it doesn't work overall. Sure, if it was just a matter of ranking phase lowkey bussing, I'd see Vax getting 0'd out. But I feel like the larger point was made that if they ensure Vax get's 0'd out then there's no way for them to get a free nightkill on Dunn. I mean, maybe scum bus, maybe they don't bus, but would they really value the bus over a free nightkill?

I feel like the argument that Espeonage is not basically locktown based on the ranking phase votes from FA and Shep/Nah is pretty suspect.

And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)

This is a good post.

And DeasVail showed he was mirroring Krazy's thought process on the matter.

You, Shoshin, are not the entirety of the town.
You should never pretend otherwise.
Because I shot guacamole knowing that the worst's flip would not remove all suspicion from guacamole to the rest of the town.

[Punreader]

Pun is confirmed scum, DV.

Wrong. I am confirmed 3p. 3p does not equate to pun; only

malevolent

3ps count as pun. As my wincon is benevolent and can be thought of in terms of being a reverse-survivor of sorts, I am anything but pun.

Like, why would we leave Pun alive? What's the point?

Well multiple reasons.

For a start, I am confirmed not groupscum with my kill mechanics confirmed such that the only player I can kill is Vaxkiller (who I am adamantly against shooting). Lynching me is not lynching groupscum.

If you mislynch today then you may have another shot at lynching pun tomorrow.

I can win with the town albeit requiring a no-lynch today so the only reason to get rid of me is to be a jerk and deny me the win when I otherwise have a fair shot at it.

I have made it known I'm not going to punside and there is strong evidence of this.

I have also shown that I am punhunting.

In particular:

Have you picked up any associative tells from the worst?

Yes, plenty. Which you'd have known if you paid attention to my wall.

the worst spewed Espeonage as pun, hard. Look at his constant defense of the slot.
Similarly, look at how Espeonage in spite of having numerous opportunities not once was voting the worst.

Again,

the worst

(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole

Espeonage

(1): Punreader

Krazy

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(1): the worst

To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.

[Punreader]

What happens if someone is ranked exactly the same as you?

This is not possible as per how the Speakeasy User Popularity Poll works. To my knowledge, there has never been a tie;

someone

is always higher than another. And in the theoretical case of a tie, I believe a tiebreaker method exists that would rank someone higher or lower.

What that tiebreaker is I could only guess, but it is quite simply impossible for two people to have the same ranking, even if they hold the same score. One of them will always be considered "higher"; the other, "lower".

At least, that is my understanding.

Per my role PM, if Errant actually did allow ties, someone ranked exactly equal to me would not be ranked lower than me. As my vig only works on those lower than me, someone equal to me would logically be infected. (My PM doesn't say "if higher, infected"; it specifies, "otherwise, infected".)

[Punreader]

the worst

(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole

Espeonage

(1): Punreader

Krazy

(1): Espeonage

Not Voting

(1): the worst

To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.

Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.

To further clarify:
You are left with those two worlds. Place yourself into the pun's shoes in both worlds.

In the world where the last punbuddy bussed, they want to get towncred for having bussed. The more players alive from the wagon, the more towncred they are likely to get, due to groupthinking. Players who are on the lynch know they were on the lynch as town, and thus, are naturally going to be more inclined by default to assume the others on the lynch were also town.

FURTHERMORE. In the event the town is smart enough to deduce that pun bussed, by killing a member of the wagon, they are narrowing the pool of who said pun bussing could be, making it easier to spot them.

In contrast, imagine a world where the last punbuddy

didn't

bus.
The know they have no town credit.
The players on the wagon are, thanks to groupthinking, likely to townread one another. This is disastrous; killing a member of the wagon can help to break that cohesion. Furthermore, because they are not a member of the wagon, the thought that killing a member of the wagon would narrow down who the pun are never occurs to them; they are more worried about the wagon being townread due to bias of knowing it was all town.

This is why the Krazy nightkill points to Espeonage as pun.

For further evidence, refer to how the worst treated Espeonage, and how Espeonage treated the worst.

If that's not enough, then read my case I made against him yesterday, discarding the part about Shoshin (which was written mostly to protect the worst). Everything I said about him then was sincere, and remains true today.

[Shoshin]

Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.

I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.

[Punreader]

9 - Espeonage

I'm still pretty sure Espe is town, and that case amounts to something closer to "he doesn't deserve to win" than "he's scum". I need to counter case this but it's prolly gonna have to wait til I'm at a PC.

^^^^^^^^^
I'd take it if he brushed on any actual reasons to suspect Espe (I've argued with myself over it quite a lot) but on the balance of things Krazy is probably just scum here.

I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?

(KEEP IN MIND THE WORST AND I WERE TRYING TO SIGNAL TO ONE ANOTHER WHAT TO DO DURING THE NIGHT AT THIS TIME)

bro have you read a game Espe has ever been in?

- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.

I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.

definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?

[Punreader]

Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.

Shooting town was undeniably selfish, but it was not without cause. Pretending guacamole was going to be a beacon of towniness today is just outright not true. I could ask Krazy about this had he lived but with him dead I need only ask DeasVail what he would have thought of guacamole going into today had I not shot him.

I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.

Because anyone who knows my identity knows how I treat third parties; I absolutely

loathe

the mindset of treating 3p as if they're pun and am a strong pro-3p advocate who favors working with them whenever possible.

Furthermore, I am known to not lie. Mislead, naturally. Tell half-truths, of course I do that because I do it as town. I would not lie.

Also, those who know my identity know that my preferred alignment is town.

My actions this game also speak to a town lean as I shot Fire Assassin and took the reads of the nightkilled into consideration. While I misread Commander Shepherd and I did have role-related reasons for it, my defense of him was in part due to me genuinely believing him to be town. I also promised to townside to Dunnstral explicitly in our PT, and even before having done so I made dual promises. One, I would trust whichever of my neighbors was the last alive and help their side win (and Dunnstral was said neighbor, and town).

Two, if I never got an opportunity for this due to both being alive, I would default to townsiding due to generally empathizing with town more.

Then there is how I, technically speaking, never agreed to work with the worst. I asked him to specify his alignment in my message to him and he did, so I didn't want to lynch him for it and didn't want to play kingmaker, but when the pun forced my hand via

not

killing Vaxkiller last night as I had asked them to (how more explicit can you get than "assume that no matter what, Vaxkiller is the nightkill"?) and left me in a position where I quite frankly may be unable to win at all, the obvious choice in every way is townsiding.

Furthermore, there is a simple fact of the matter you overlook.

If I intended to punside, I didn't need to claim at all. I could continue the charade of a town vig, under the guise of "guacamole was the only person I could shoot, so I shot him" or something to that effect. I would also state my motivation for shooting guacamole was to prove that there's still pun alive, because if Vaxkiller and guacamole both died on the same night, then it's proof there's two kill sources rather than one.

I could, and would, get away with that.

I would point out how, as there is confirmed to be pun alive, lynching a player who is confirmed to not be pun is a mistake.

And this would all work, allowing me to quite easily punside by relying on the biases you have against me to get the town in DV/Espeonage lynched.

Instead I claimed openly, because I made my choice and am doubling down on it.

[Punreader]

For the record I also agree with Sho's lynchpool assessment above. I would order it as probably Krazy, Guac, DV, worst at this point. Scum worst doesn't need to meta me like that, and scum DV also doesn't need to defend me like he has. Basically I've started giving cred to people who are resistant to town lynched.

I'll be honest. I put the worst high because I reckon I'll be able to read him later and I genuinely like him. Because I forsee that question coming too.

Look what I found.

[Vaxkiller]

Like I said

[DeasVail]

Like, besides the fact that I lobbied for Shepard's lynch on D2 in a way that scum don't do, I was also the mislynch that scum pushed as counterwagon to Shepard. You'd have to really stretch the imagination to argue that I'm scum.

I think you overestimate how clear you are but I also don’t think you are scum, so...

[Shoshin]

Vax, we have to decide between Espe and DV. Why are you leaning Espe?

For the record, Pun wants to mislynch today because Pun wins if we mislynch. So Pun probably thinks Espe is town here.

[Shoshin]

Lynch someone else.
If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.

This analysis is wrong. If we lynch between Espe & DV today, mafia can't win. Either you win, or town wins.

You infect the last mafia (whoever isn't lynched today between Espe & DV). In that case, you win if mafia kill Vax (because every living player would be infected), and town wins if mafia kill you or me (because Vax wouldn't be infected and we'd just lynch the last mafia).

[Errantparabola]

As said before, I will spend 24 hours attempting to replace Espeonage.

[Errantparabola]

Ankamius replaces Espeonage. Please welcome her warmly.

Votecount 6.1

No Lynch

(1): Punreader

Not Voting

(4): DeasVail, Ankamius, Vaxkiller, Shoshin

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-09-02 20:52:00)

[Ankamius]

Hey guys

I'm not going to go analysis mode on 146 pages, but I'll go through specific stuff as requested and otherwise look through whatever parts of the thread that catches my eye

Can I get a rundown on roughly what's going on in the meantime?

[Punreader]

Lynch someone else.
If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.

This analysis is wrong. If we lynch between Espe & DV today, mafia can't win. Either you win, or town wins.

I wish, but you're wrong; my math is quite correct.

We have 5 alive right now.
A mislynch places us at 4 alive.
The mafia nightkill a player.
3 alive.
If I am removed from the game, it is 2 alive.
Mafia win.

When I win, I am removed from the game.
If I didn't win automatically from the results of the night, then tomorrow I am going to lynch whoever I don't have infected. Yes, if the lynchee then is pun then town wins, but odds are that an uninfected player at that stage is likely to be town, thus a loss.

Can I get a rundown on roughly what's going on in the meantime?

Sure.

You know who I am.

So you can verify this information to be true, yes? (HELPFUL HINT: Lynch Ankamius if she doesn't, because she 100% knows my identity and 100% knows these to be true about me.)

I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)

There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.

I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.

I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.

My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked

higher

than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.

I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)

In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;

d

Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.

With two kills you know there's pun left alive.

The options available to the town then are the following:

1. Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot.
   
2. Lynch someone else.
   • If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
     
   • If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
     • If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
       
     • If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
   Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
   
3. No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.

In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I

am

being forced to choose a side.

I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I

will

be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.

VOTE: No Lynch.

If you doubt that I was town-leaning from the onset, you need only look at my shot on Fire Assassin for proof of this.
I knew that Fire Assassin was, 100%, ranked below me.
Instead of going for the infection, I shot him.

Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I defended Commander Shepherd because I infected him and I wanted to keep my infections alive; most of my targets were players that I thought would be ranked above me, from Pine (I was surprised I vigged him; I was convinced I would infect him) to Shoshin to Commander Shepherd. (Frankly the main reason I didn't shoot ManWithNoName was because I knew he was ranked lower than me.) I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.) I also always was shooting punreads of mine. I genuinely believed Pine to be pun; I didn't think Commander Shepherd was pun but he asked me to shoot him and I had no reason not to oblige as it was convenient, but at the time I shot Shoshin I genuinely believed Shoshin to be pun.

If you know who I am then you also know how I treat 3p; I treat 3p as if they are town regardless of situation or circumstance. (You would also know that were I actually a serial killer I would never shoot, holstering the whole game, as I believe that to be optimal serial killer play in most situations.) So while I

have

been pursuing my wincon and some actions of mine are obviously proof of this, I have

also

been trying to help the town the whole game. Including yesterday; I was worried that I would be forced to punside if you made the wrong lynch.

I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.

I even outlined why I felt Shoshin's actions were ironically the most anti-town actions humanly possible, because Shoshin's proposed course of action was what I felt was the one foolproof way to guarantee the town would lose due to me needing to punside given those circumstances. Fortunately, that ended up not being the case, but I maintain that the lynch of the worst was not the best possible lynch. It wasn't the worst possible lynch (that'd have been DeasVail or Krazy), but it was certainly far less than optimal.

For clarity, I outlined this in the neighborhood thread which Errant was kind enough to leave open once I was the last member alive within.

And to explain, a lynch of DeasVail or Krazy would have forced me to shoot guacamole anyway, leaving the town with two pun alive plus myself. We'd lynch one of the pun, I'd be forced to target the other because the pun is the only player who wouldn't be nightkilled and thus guaranteed to be alive with the infect, and in 3p lylo I'd be forced to lynch the player not infected. (I put in the details of the math in there which you can see in postgame.)

Technically speaking the best lynch for me was guacamole, as that'd have freed me up to infect a player, and potentially even allow me to exit the game without me needing to choose the victor, but I couldn't find a way to believably push that as the best option. (I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)

I'd like to reiterate:

Of course I do confess some of my actions have been driven by the wincon. I did need guacamole dead at some point and shot him in part due to this, but that was also a shot made because many people were assuming the worst and guacamole was the punteam.

I didn't think the worst's flip would entirely dissuade people from that conclusion; I thought people would still be under the impression guacamole was pun anyway in spite of the obvious. (If I am wrong and upon the worst's flip you were convinced guacamole was town, then I do apologize.)

Yes I did shoot guacamole to pursue my wincon. I have stated as much openly. I maintain the shot was also to the benefit of the town.

What would stop guacamole from being the worst's punbuddy, having targeted the worst, and the worst simply having copied the power, and when it was claimed, set up distancing?

Of course I found that rather unlikely. But what I more mean is...what would stop

you from arguing

guacamole as being the worst's punbuddy, having set up that distancing with that maneuver?

I knew I was shooting town, yes. I maintain I was not shooting

conftown

, and that suspicion would have remained on guacamole today had I not taken that shot.

I said repeatedly that guac's only plausible partner was DV. Guac would have been confirmed town after the worst's flip, at least from my perspective.

Sure, from

your

perspective.

The same cannot be said of Krazy (who I had no way of knowing would be dead) and DeasVail among others.

In fact, quite the opposite.

So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy.

On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.

For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.

Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.

Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.

Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.

There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.

Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.

You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.

Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.

Krazy was a strong advocate of guacamole being the worst's punbuddy as is evident by this thought process here.

Pun I'm not sure I understand your logic that the worst is town. I can at this point follow the reasons you suspect Sho. I think it's reasonable to suspect Sho if you are ignoring her playstyle.

But why is the worst town? I don't understand.

I also feel like I'm with you on some points for Espeonage, but I feel like it doesn't work overall. Sure, if it was just a matter of ranking phase lowkey bussing, I'd see Vax getting 0'd out. But I feel like the larger point was made that if they ensure Vax get's 0'd out then there's no way for them to get a free nightkill on Dunn. I mean, maybe scum bus, maybe they don't bus, but would they really value the bus over a free nightkill?

I feel like the argument that Espeonage is not basically locktown based on the ranking phase votes from FA and Shep/Nah is pretty suspect.

And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)

This is a good post.

And DeasVail showed he was mirroring Krazy's thought process on the matter.

You, Shoshin, are not the entirety of the town.
You should never pretend otherwise.
Because I shot guacamole knowing that the worst's flip would not remove all suspicion from guacamole to the rest of the town.

Pun is confirmed scum, DV.

Wrong. I am confirmed 3p. 3p does not equate to pun; only

malevolent

3ps count as pun. As my wincon is benevolent and can be thought of in terms of being a reverse-survivor of sorts, I am anything but pun.

Like, why would we leave Pun alive? What's the point?

Well multiple reasons.

For a start, I am confirmed not groupscum with my kill mechanics confirmed such that the only player I can kill is Vaxkiller (who I am adamantly against shooting). Lynching me is not lynching groupscum.

If you mislynch today then you may have another shot at lynching pun tomorrow.

I can win with the town albeit requiring a no-lynch today so the only reason to get rid of me is to be a jerk and deny me the win when I otherwise have a fair shot at it.

I have made it known I'm not going to punside and there is strong evidence of this.

I have also shown that I am punhunting.

What happens if someone is ranked exactly the same as you?

This is not possible as per how the Speakeasy User Popularity Poll works. To my knowledge, there has never been a tie;

someone

is always higher than another. And in the theoretical case of a tie, I believe a tiebreaker method exists that would rank someone higher or lower.

What that tiebreaker is I could only guess, but it is quite simply impossible for two people to have the same ranking, even if they hold the same score. One of them will always be considered "higher"; the other, "lower".

At least, that is my understanding.

Per my role PM, if Errant actually did allow ties, someone ranked exactly equal to me would not be ranked lower than me. As my vig only works on those lower than me, someone equal to me would logically be infected. (My PM doesn't say "if higher, infected"; it specifies, "otherwise, infected".)

Shooting town is undeniably scum-sided, regardless of an earlier shot on scum.

Shooting town was undeniably selfish, but it was not without cause. Pretending guacamole was going to be a beacon of towniness today is just outright not true. I could ask Krazy about this had he lived but with him dead I need only ask DeasVail what he would have thought of guacamole going into today had I not shot him.

I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.

Because anyone who knows my identity knows how I treat third parties; I absolutely

loathe

the mindset of treating 3p as if they're pun and am a strong pro-3p advocate who favors working with them whenever possible.

Furthermore, I am known to not lie. Mislead, naturally. Tell half-truths, of course I do that because I do it as town. I would not lie.

Also, those who know my identity know that my preferred alignment is town.

My actions this game also speak to a town lean as I shot Fire Assassin and took the reads of the nightkilled into consideration. While I misread Commander Shepherd and I did have role-related reasons for it, my defense of him was in part due to me genuinely believing him to be town. I also promised to townside to Dunnstral explicitly in our PT, and even before having done so I made dual promises. One, I would trust whichever of my neighbors was the last alive and help their side win (and Dunnstral was said neighbor, and town).

Two, if I never got an opportunity for this due to both being alive, I would default to townsiding due to generally empathizing with town more.

Then there is how I, technically speaking, never agreed to work with the worst. I asked him to specify his alignment in my message to him and he did, so I didn't want to lynch him for it and didn't want to play kingmaker, but when the pun forced my hand via

not

killing Vaxkiller last night as I had asked them to (how more explicit can you get than "assume that no matter what, Vaxkiller is the nightkill"?) and left me in a position where I quite frankly may be unable to win at all, the obvious choice in every way is townsiding.

Furthermore, there is a simple fact of the matter you overlook.

If I intended to punside, I didn't need to claim at all. I could continue the charade of a town vig, under the guise of "guacamole was the only person I could shoot, so I shot him" or something to that effect. I would also state my motivation for shooting guacamole was to prove that there's still pun alive, because if Vaxkiller and guacamole both died on the same night, then it's proof there's two kill sources rather than one.

I could, and would, get away with that.

I would point out how, as there is confirmed to be pun alive, lynching a player who is confirmed to not be pun is a mistake.

And this would all work, allowing me to quite easily punside by relying on the biases you have against me to get the town in DV/Espeonage lynched.

Instead I claimed openly, because I made my choice and am doubling down on it.

This post in particular you should be able to vouch for.

[Ankamius]

I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)

There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.

I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.

I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.

My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)

My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.

However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked

higher

than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.

My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.

I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)

In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;

d

Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.

This means yes, I am fairly certain Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy. After all. With two kills you know there's pun left alive; you then have a choice: believe his punbuddy bussed him, or believe Espeonage is the punbuddy.

The options available to the town then are the following:

1. Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot but I'd strongly recommend the Espeonage lynch and can cite the worst's defense of him as proof.
   
2. Lynch someone else.
   • If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
     
   • If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
     • If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
       
     • If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
   Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
   
3. No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.

In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I

am

being forced to choose a side.

I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I

will

be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.

VOTE: No Lynch.

Okay, this claim is probably genuine

I don't think Pun would be fully against claiming something like this as scum, but there would have to be a very specific purpose to it. When you consider Shoshin's immediate push onto that claim (which can be believably foreseen) and the fact that Espeonage has been inactive enough to have the mod look to replace him, this kind of play is inherently risky at this stage in the game at best. The exception would be if it was impossible for them to stay alive otherwise, but from what I've seen, the kill aspect at least is confirmed. I don't think Pun would leave themself in a position to require a claim like that to win the endgame. They're good enough at predicting things like this to be able to avoid it if they can.

[Ankamius]

that's a lot of text

hold on while I read through it

[Punreader]

(This is perhaps a thought I should have kept to the neighborhood but in the interest of being as open as possible: I do confess I am a bit paranoid of Shoshin. The reason

why

I am paranoid of Shoshin can boil down to: what if Shoshin is the last pun, yet is immune to infection as per being a rankings-immune mafiate? Were that the case, no matter what we do today, as long as it's not lynching me, then Shoshin would lose. Because I have stated so strongly I will townside, if I can't win, then I'd lynch pun. Similarly, if I am under the impression lynching Shoshin will cause me to win, then I would do so. Neither situation would be to a scum-Shoshin's preference.

There is corroborating evidence for this viewpoint in Shoshin's treatment of the worst yesterday; initially, Shoshin was gunning for the worst's lynch, but when it looked like there was an actual risk that could happen, Shoshin shifted viewpoints such that the worst was Shoshin's third or even fourth preference; Shoshin wanted at least one of Krazy/DeasVail dead as well as guacamole.

That having been said, I maintain it is more likely overall that Shoshin is simply town. My suspicion is, 95%, likely to be just paranoia.)

[Ankamius]

I also don't see why we should believe anything you say, since we know you're not town.

Because anyone who knows my identity knows how I treat third parties; I absolutely

loathe

the mindset of treating 3p as if they're pun and am a strong pro-3p advocate who favors working with them whenever possible.

I do know specifically that you don't like treating 3p as scum via a game I followed sometime last year out of curiosity (the WWF game where everybody but one person was scum), but the rest I don't have a strong memory of offhand since we don't have any recent games with a 3p and anything from before my unretirement is pretty faded in my memory.

Unless you're referring to [REDACTED], in which case it's very easy to assume you hold this philosophy.

Furthermore, I am known to not lie. Mislead, naturally. Tell half-truths, of course I do that because I do it as town. I would not lie.

Also, those who know my identity know that my preferred alignment is town.

The first quote is 100% true.

The second one is guessably true in recent memory, although I do remember a particular scumgame of yours that you were absolutely thrilled to play a few years ago

My actions this game also speak to a town lean as I shot Fire Assassin and took the reads of the nightkilled into consideration. While I misread Commander Shepherd and I did have role-related reasons for it, my defense of him was in part due to me genuinely believing him to be town. I also promised to townside to Dunnstral explicitly in our PT, and even before having done so I made dual promises. One, I would trust whichever of my neighbors was the last alive and help their side win (and Dunnstral was said neighbor, and town).

Two, if I never got an opportunity for this due to both being alive, I would default to townsiding due to generally empathizing with town more.

Then there is how I, technically speaking, never agreed to work with the worst. I asked him to specify his alignment in my message to him and he did, so I didn't want to lynch him for it and didn't want to play kingmaker, but when the pun forced my hand via

not

killing Vaxkiller last night as I had asked them to (how more explicit can you get than "assume that no matter what, Vaxkiller is the nightkill"?) and left me in a position where I quite frankly may be unable to win at all, the obvious choice in every way is townsiding.

This is very very very Pun, I would trust this

Furthermore, there is a simple fact of the matter you overlook.

If I intended to punside, I didn't need to claim at all. I could continue the charade of a town vig, under the guise of "guacamole was the only person I could shoot, so I shot him" or something to that effect. I would also state my motivation for shooting guacamole was to prove that there's still pun alive, because if Vaxkiller and guacamole both died on the same night, then it's proof there's two kill sources rather than one.

I could, and would, get away with that.

I would point out how, as there is confirmed to be pun alive, lynching a player who is confirmed to not be pun is a mistake.

And this would all work, allowing me to quite easily punside by relying on the biases you have against me to get the town in DV/Espeonage lynched.

Instead I claimed openly, because I made my choice and am doubling down on it.

If you needed any more proof that Pun isn't scum, then here it is.

Pun is no idiot. Pun is a competent scum. Pun knows how to work the town in a way to push themself into as good a spot as they possibly can.

I don't see any direct issues with this, there would have to be some specific plan in place to make a 3p claim better than a town claim, or at least some advantage that I'm not seeing.

[DeasVail]

Thanks for your thoughts Ank.

But what I really want to know is,

Are you scum?

[Vaxkiller]

Hey ank, we think your scum, im basically confirmed town and no one is going to argue otherwise (prolly helping you out here, but meh)

We all think pun has a high probablility fo flipping SK so we dont want to take chances there and we are lynchign him today. There is one mroe scum (we are thinking you) and if we lynch Pun today I'm the obvious NK going into tomorrow so that leaves DV, Shoshin, and you.

Shoshin has shown a town mentality through the game and I dont want to think that is scum there, espy has been lurking hard and they can do that as scum, dv ive been on the fence about, but some of thier posts today dont really look like it comes from scum.

Before we lynch pun today I really want to decide who tomorrows lynch is going to be because i wont be around tomorrow, so I want to take our time today. I'm leaning you (ank) as the last scum.

Can you claim for us?
-Vax

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Pun

[Shoshin]

I wish, but you're wrong; my math is quite correct.

We have 5 alive right now.
A mislynch places us at 4 alive.
The mafia nightkill a player.
3 alive.
If I am removed from the game, it is 2 alive.
Mafia win.

When I win, I am removed from the game.
If I didn't win automatically from the results of the night, then tomorrow I am going to lynch whoever I don't have infected. Yes, if the lynchee then is pun then town wins, but odds are that an uninfected player at that stage is likely to be town, thus a loss.

This is why you shouldn't have killed guac, and it's why you're dying today.

[Shoshin]

DV, why don't you want to lynch Pun today?