## Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.

Here are my thoughts (atleast the ones that don't give scum an edge by talking about them)

So we start at an even number in this setup which is a bit awful since scum have a better change based on pure luck at winning in mylo as compared to lylo.

As far as claiming as fast as possible goes (which is what I assume hypoclaiming means, sorry I'm not 100% up to date on lingo):

So according to some maths IF the amount of mafia left is less than the amount of confirmed, than the odds of investigating scum is greater than the odds being killed as a watcher
Spoiler: Math Proof
Let Sucessful investigaion chance I = M/3T
where M= amount of scum
T= total players left alive

let chance of watcher Death D = 1/(T-M)

Ideally we'd like to prove a scenario where I>=D

Thus as long as (M-3)T-M^2>=0, I>=D
and if that makes a happy face Then the watchers will have an advantage that night

So optimally, we should behave and make decisions that make that inequlaity tip in the towns favor. Basically theres a lot of scenarios that could happen with that and I'm not in mood to give fodder thats useful to the wiki tonight

However I will be refering to the equation (M-3)T-M^2>=0 each day to weigh in on claiming decisions
obviously today that doesn't matter
Lets use this equation to see why, T=alive players total M=alive scum
T=12 M=3
-9>0
So we're in a pretty bad place right now,Its pretty unlikely watcher will find anything tonight
Obviously the best way you can egg the chances upwards is ticking away from the scum pile by claiming whenever you got a dead ringer

Actually looking at that equation I is never greater than D so really never claim until you get anything, especially since this is a watcher role and the non results don't give us any information that's helpful
Basically treat it like a slot machine, if you can get it to pay out at all then get off the train when it does
So generally speaking dont claim unless you got something sure

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Also ignore the sentence above the spoiler, I did some bad math and forgot to delete the original (WRONG) conclusion

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
And I didn't emphasize this enough but (M-3)T-M^2>=0 Will NEVER check out unless T could possibly be negative

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Hold up I forgot to factor in the fact that the watcher knows he's town

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Corrected inequality and proof:

IF M <= 1 than I>D

where I = M/M(T-1)=1/(T-1)
and D = 1/(T-M)

So the likelihood of sucess for investigations is not dependent on the number of scum alive at all

and obviously the chances of his death are best staved off whenever M decreases

So the best action is still to just claim when you have a sucess and never anything else

Never claim for any other reason (other than saving your own ass atleast)

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Also nobody dare TR me for that I did a bunch of shitty math only to come to the conclusion that its business as usual as far as claiming goes
in my last game a bunch of people town read me simply for effort and It blew my fucking minds as to why
I put up with it because I was town and people were having a hard time reading me but I'd like to get it out there that effort is not a one to one correlation with scuminess
a lack of effort is a good indicator of scum but a presence of effort does not indicate town

Anyways let that be a lesson to never do gametheory math late at night because youre bound to make idioitic mistakes, theres still a not great part of the stupidly simple model i used that doesn't account for the fact that T contains M in it, I should have broken it into P=t+M for more generalized use to make the death equation a bit easier to see the relationships

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Thabks for clarifying what hypoclaiming was

Ya’ll can skim thru my last game if you want to see why what I said was a concern

I’m a firm believer in that a strong smart town is what wins games so I try to point out things I think are idiotic

Particularly i haven’t been around in a year so I have to wonder if the site poured itself a bowl of Oops! All Dick Pills and circlejerked itself until it believed A=> Q implies -A=>-Q because boy a LOT of people seemed to equate towniness with activity rather than Addis I ate inactivity with scuminess

Now let me dig into all the serious posts that have come up

Which I’ll be a bit busy today so I won’t be too responsive

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 23, Dunnstral wrote:We end up at 4 people alive but 1 person is confirmed town (watcher) or there's a cc

So it's not worse

We have a watcher no matter what and a base 1/3 of finding scum is in fact worse than 1/2 bass chance of finding scum

Unless you’re talking about something else I’m not reading because this doesn’t exactly communicate the idea clearly

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Keyser I will say I’ve preferred to just call out lurkers based on ratios of post and if it’s awful ask they replace or change
I don’t see lurking as a valid town playstyle personally

Keyser if you haven’t played wih sesq before from what I rmember sesq has a laizefair attitude and tone to their posts and keeps to themself or atleast that’s how I rmember his playstyle looking

Although to be fair I played scum with them I think the last time I played with them
I think keyser is being a bit stiff on all the sesq stuff

I’ve addressed Northsidegals points already how I disagree with letting people be shit at passing basketballs just because they’re atleast passing it to people on the correct team but do chime in with more questions North if I’ve missed anything

Irrelephant you aren’t trying to distance yourself from me by addressing my direct question with an indirect tense response right? You don’t have to be afraid, you can adress me and I promise I won’t bite

Uh I got nothing else to say right now that caught my eye

Feel free to ask anything, it helps me since I’m often phoneposting

Pedit: how can I write anything gamesolvery when I don’t think a majority of the players have even posted????

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 56, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 55, GameNBurger wrote:Irrelephant you aren’t trying to distance yourself from me by addressing my direct question with an indirect tense response right?

I don't know what this question means

Irellephant doesn’t understand the question, I’m saying his tense he used was weird and didn’t really like he was addressing my question as to what hypoclaiming was in a way that didn’t sound very weird

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
In post 58, Irrelephant11 wrote:Oh, I get it. Yeah that was just because I was talking more to Keyser than to you - since he was the one who asked about hypoclaiming

@Keyser did you know what hypoclaiming was when you asked?

I see, thanks for the clarification

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Also I’m going out right now I’ll be back with full answers later

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
So I'm back for a while

Let me weigh on some shit

@NORTH:

Short summary of my last game, i'd do some game theory stuff or long pairing posts that were like open notes, which is just my style of play for the most part but people kept saying "this is never town" which is just the dumbest assumption

I know lazy scum is a popular strat on this site but god damn somebody's gotta break the circlejerk rip tides because scum could just easily coast by putting in effort in note taking

Thats probably the largest reason why i felt the need to comment on it ahead of time since I really hated having to just not say anything in the interest of the town not flip flopping more than it already did that game, not only that but if scum tries to ride out a similar strat of just putting in over the top effort and taking town cred from people I want to be able to call it out with scum potentially being armed with ammo of me keeping quiet in the case that anyone gives me towncred

And I don't buy into that shit of "act bad then attract scum who try and attacks you or buys into it" because town has every right reason to call you out on that as scum does so its just a big showy waste of everyone's time that will cast doubt on ones self to the rest of the town

@Volxen
How have you missed my references to my previous game being the main hitch that motivates my action its in the quote you quoted

@IRELLEPHANT
Hey you wanna explain that sesq vote
Ironically that reminds me of the small amount of familiarity with Sesq's MO i have

I'm gonna put my Keyser thoughts in a seperate post

Again if i've missed anything directed at me please point it out so I can answer

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
Okay I’m seriously busy for a small spell

I might have to go V/LA

I’ll be back later to either catch up and have longer write ups or go V/LA

GameNBurger
Goon

Joined: May 25, 2017
Pronoun: He
I hate contributing to sub madness in games

But the move is really taking more out of me than i thought

MOD, i'm subbing out

Sorry guys.

Good luck out there everyone!

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