Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

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Post Post #46  (isolation #0)  » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:05 am

In post 25, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 16, Sesq wrote:
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.


please Please townread me

This was a page one question intended to be answered before we enter serious/non-RVS gameplay.

You shouldn’t see it as an attempt to look ‘townie’: it’s as non-alignment indicative as say a player asking if there is scum day chat - why are you being lazy/shortsighted?


What? Asking if there's scum day chat would be an entirely useless question since you can just skim through the role PMs and find the answer yourself. That would actually lean more scum imo since it would seem like a pretty shitty attempt at a dumb-tell. I don't think it would be too unreasonable for someone to town-read you for trying to strike up conversation, or to think it's just a facade by that same reasoning.

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Post Post #50  (isolation #1)  » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:32 am

In post 48, Keyser Söze wrote:I forgot we’re in an Open game obviously.

I should have given a different example.

I don’t wanna discuss whether my early question was alignment indicative anymore though, why are you getting so excited over it? Do you have any charged feelings over anything else?


How is it obvious that you forgot we were in an Open game? That doesn't even make sense given your talk about hypo-claiming. Also, that wouldn't have really mattered that much since announcing whether a game does/doesn't have have day talk is pretty common regardless of the setup. I don't know how you're getting the impression that I'm getting "excited" over it, and sorry to disappoint but I don't really have any "charged feelings" about anything else. Sesq's post wasn't really thrilling scum-hunting but I don't think it was that bad, GameNBurger's theory talk was pretty null, northsidegal calling out GameNBurger for not wanting to be town-read for the wrong reasons pinged me at first, but when she elaborated on it I could kind of see where she was coming from. However, you wanting to drive discussion away from you plus you being weirdly defensive about the whole thing rubs me off the wrong way.

VOTE: Keyser Söze

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Post Post #103  (isolation #2)  » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:16 pm

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:- choosing to chip in with an irrelevant snippet over a non-issue (does it even matter? Is cesq town for saying this, is my reaction scummy/irrational?) what was the goal of your post... to say I am a liar? to say I am scum?


Something's not "irrelevant" just because you say it is. I didn't like you calling your posts "non-alignment indicative" as soon as someone alluded to them being scummy, and comparing your question to "a player asking if there is day chat", something that I didn't think was "non-alignment indicative" at all, only irked me more, so it felt important enough for me to address.

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:- failure to see how I think arguing over non-alignment/irrelevant items are a waste of time... but still wanting to start it all back up again...


I brought it up again because there was something in your post that bothered me that wasn't really addressed. Why should I care that you personally thought it was a waste of time if it was something that you yourself posted that pinged me?

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:- presuming "defensive"/""driving discussion away" is scum alignment indicative (my action was pro-town). Discussing whether I think I could gain town cred for post #13 is laughable and inane.


But the thing was it seemed like you were "driving discussion away" from discussion that put you in a bad light. Like, the first time you said "let's stop talking about this" was when you were in an argument with northsidegal, and then the next time was when I responded negatively to one of your posts. It could just be coincidence, but in these cases it would be pretty beneficial for you as scum to change the subject.

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:- me forgetting that this is an open set-up RE: scum day chat is a talking issue...?


Yes, because I thought it was a dumb excuse to cover up your mistake. Why would you even suggest hypoclaiming if you didn't know we were guaranteed to have a power role that would benefit from hypoclaiming? Fine, maybe you did just forget we were in an open game, but then the way you tacked on "obviously" at the end didn't read like you were earnestly admitting your mistake, instead trying to boomerang it back to me to make it seem like it was my fault I didn't catch something so "obvious".

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:- "I don't think it would be too unreasonable for someone to town-read you for trying to strike up conversation" is this you disagreeing with me or you saying I am scum, or both?


I was disagreeing with the notion that your questions aren't alignment-readable. I wasn't really set on voting you until your follow-up.

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:Now tell me why town-me can't think your entrance can be hideous and lazy (you called me "weirdly defensive").

Tell me why town-me can't regret making post #13 in the first place, and that we should move on swiftly.

"sorry to disappoint but I don't really have any "charged feelings" about anything else".. tell me why that shouldn't frustrate/intrigue town-me.


(if you can explain to me scum motivation for all three points I'll be more convinced of your scum read of me. please make your reply more coherent than mine :giggle: )


I can't answer these questions the way you phrased them, because I don't believe that you can't do any of the above as town, but I highly doubt your scum game consists of only things you can't possibly do as town. Yes, I believe town!you can view my entrance as "hideous" and "lazy", but I believe that scum!you can absolutely do this too, and in this case attacking someone who attacks you has obvious benefits as scum. Town!you can regret making post #13, but it would also make sense for scum!you to regret it too when players start hounding you for it. I don't know about the last point tbh. I admit, this would be a pretty unorthodox playstyle from you if you are scum, and I'm still trying to figure out whether or not this is outside your scum range, but basically there's not much you've posted that really shoots yourself in the foot if you are scum, and a lot of what bothers me also happens to benefit you from a scum perspective.

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Post Post #119  (isolation #3)  » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:56 am

In post 105, Keyser Söze wrote:- town can call their own posts non-alignment indicative when accused of being scummy.
- both town and scum can ask if there is day chat.
- a town player can show concern if they think going down an avenue will be unproductive.
- a town player can be very concerned about being put in "bad light" for unjust causes.
- a town player can stubbornly push to try to change the subject if they think it won't help find scum.
- townies can make dumb mistakes and provide incorrect examples.
- town can "attack" the player attacking them.


Yes, of course town can do all of the above, but my point was that I thought your posts would favor scum!you more than town!you. Like for the first point, it would be more productive from a town POV imo to explain your reasoning behind your post and let Sesq decide for themselves whether or not it was scum indicative instead of straight up telling them they "shouldn't see it as an attempt to look townie" and that it's "non-alignment indicative", and it seemed to me like you were being more defensive than the situation called for. Of course you could be defensive as town, but being defensive naturally has more benefits for scum who lose a lot more than town by being suspected -> voted -> lynched, and when it was combined with something I saw as anti-town (calling your own post "non-alignment indicative" read to me like you were trying to force a certain interpretation of your post instead of leaving it open to discussion) I was inclined to read it as a scum defense. I could probably do the same with a lot of the other points you listed, but I don't think it would be worth it. Honestly, my scum-read of you has been waning steadily, and I think a lot of your later posts do read as genuine scum-hunting (the slight backpeddling of your 2.17 read especially caught me off-guard), but you have to understand that not everyone's going to view you as town and that it's not entirely implausible for me to see your actions coming from scum. If you think I'm "arguing over fluff" then so be it, but all you've said to dispute that is saying that your actions can come from town, which wasn't my point at all and doesn't dispute the fact that your actions could come from scum as well, so if you are town then do a better job of proving me wrong.


Now, for a quick snap-shot read of everyone else...

Irrelephant11 - Decently engaged with the game. His questions and scum-hunting seem pretty fine as a whole, and there's nothing that juts out too much. He seems a little reluctant to scum-read people, and even his vote on Sesq didn't seem that committal. He only voted them to move to something more interesting (?) and then moved onto 2.178 in the next post without much indication why. I'm not so sure it's really scum-motivated though, so he's kind of lean town for me.

Ausuka - Hasn't really done too much so far, but her reads list is pretty solid. I got around the same impression from Sasq as she did, and I really liked her read on northsidegal too. Her read on me seems a bit rambling and is not too coherent tbh, but I guess I get where she's coming from. Probably a lean town once she posts some more.

2.187 - His vote on Keyser seems a bit forced as he doesn't really back it up all that much. His follow up post is meh. I liked his pseudo-town-read of me because it was kind of unconventional, though it does line up neatly with his Keyser vote. It also didn't read as obvious buddying since he admitted my post was a "little annoying". Null lean scum.

Sesq - They seemed a bit too eager to back off of Keyser from the first line of #80, but they wouldn't have really be motivated to do that as scum. But then in the next line they say that keyser is "detached" from the game, but also not in a scum way, yet they aren't really swayed and they keep their vote (???). I don't understand their game plan from either alignment to be honest, and I'm not sure how much of this is actually AI or just their playstyle. Null all around.

volxen - His post-RVS introduction was pretty pointless and actually did nothing to add to the discussion. I get I might be kind of a hypocrite since similar things have been said about my introduction, but it seems even more exaggerated in that the distance between the post he was responding to and his actual post number were literally pages apart and that all he said was basically just paraphrasing what northsidegal said. A lean scum for me.

GameNBurger - Started off with a bunch of game theory talk that didn't lead anywhere, then pleading to people not to town-read him for him, which ironically enough made me town-read him for it a little initially. Honestly, I'm not getting too much of an impression from his posts, like nothing really just juts out as towny or that impressive. Pretty null.

Dunnstral - Not having a strong impression on me. I have no idea why he's voting Sesq. Null.

northsidegal - I think she has a lot of interesting perspectives on things. I liked how she pointed out that GameNBurger could've held onto his "don't townread me" comment to see if anyone would town-read him for it first, but then again I don't think this would really glean anything AI since it wouldn't have been obvious as town to make that decision -- seemed like more of a "good play vs. bad play" sort of statement. It's sort of the same thing with her later posts on Irrelephant, though she did admit it probably doesn't matter much in the end. She offers solid advice overall, which does help town in a sense, but I'm clueless in terms of where she leans on basically everyone. Null.

Poseidon - Close to nothing from him. Null.

Kop - Literally nothing from him. Also null.


So basically in a condensed form the players I'm most comfortable considering as town for the moment are {Irrelephant11, Ausuka} and as scum are {2.187, volxen}. Keyser's kind of sliding closer to null, but I'm still not inclined to shift my vote at the moment.

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Post Post #179  (isolation #4)  » Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:03 am

Sorry, I've been busy over the weekend. I'll try to post by the end of the day.

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Post Post #220  (isolation #5)  » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:21 am

In post 139, Ausuka wrote:I'm not sure why you're focusing on Keyser so much when he's about null to you?


I said he was "sliding closer to null". He was still a scum lean at the time. Why did you leave that part out of my post when you quoted it?

In post 139, Ausuka wrote:And how is 2.718's post forced just because it didn't have much reasoning behind it? Like Dunnstral gave no reasoning at all and he's null to you.


The reasoning he did provide was underwhelming, and it almost felt like he had to make up an excuse in order to push Keyser. But yeah, I realized I gave Dunnstral a bit more slack than I intended. For some reason I was giving him a pass because I thought he was just catching up, but 2.718 posted the same amount and I thought it was appropriate to judge him differently because of that? So Dunnstral probably should've been a lean scum, but recently I liked the pressure he put on northsidegal about the whole "commas are scummy" thing and 2.178 is looking a bit better since his readslist.

In post 151, 2 718281828459 wrote:
  • Keyser Soze: All right, this guy is null. The only thing I can see is that the vote on Reundo should probably restate the evidence as most of Keyser's recent posts are about Dun. UNVOTE: Keyser 3.5
  • Reundo: Four posts. Post 119 is great if you drop the first block of text. For now I think I want to slightly take Reundo's side of this. 4.5
  • Ausuka: I like the honest effort in 111 and 139. These posts may not directly gain conclusions but I appreciate the effort for someone who clearly was unable to get online. 5
  • Dunnstral: Why vote for Sesq? This player is lurking, as far as post 149 is concerned.
  • Flicker: Oh wait, that is the mod.
  • GameNBurger: I am just confused here. 108 should be alignment-indicative but I am unable to read the indication. Nothing else is of any value. 4
  • Irrelephant: Either I am too worn out from trying to read 5 other slots or nothing really jumps out. N/A
  • Posiedon: Did this guy like get replaced? N/A
  • Sesq: is a vote magnet. I think there have been two or maybe even three votes on Sesq with next to no explanation. I see that Sesq's play is unconventional but not really scummy. This is a hard slot to read, so I will just deduct half a point and say 3.5.
  • Volxen: Too little to read. But the posts that he did make are town. 4.1

I tried to read NSG and Kop but making this list is getting exhausting and I am not getting anywhere.


Why didn't you give Dunnstral a score? Elaborate on your volxen read, because I'm getting the opposite impression from him.

In post 182, 2 718281828459 wrote:I see nothing that is worth my attention.


You left many spaces in your reads list blank, most notably northsidegal and Irrelephant. Kop and Toranga just recently started posting too, so you could've given your take on those too. Your reads lists had a lot of nulls -- is there anyone you've been scum-reading recently?


I agree that northsidegal's focus on Kop's commas is fairly pointless, and it's a bit troubling how I know more about her philosophy surrounding Kop's commas than why she's pushing her own scum-read.

Toranga's posts haven't been anything special so far. His tone rings towny -- especially with his frustration around lurkers and lack of motivation -- but I won't put too much stock in it. I like Kop's posts more because they're focused more on the current game state (read on Keyser and Sesq, asking about the wagon on me) and it seems like he's interested in progressing the game forward.

Keyser's later posts have been fine from a scum-hunting standpoint, and coupled with meta reads from Kop and Irrelephant to an extent, I feel like some of the issues I have with him might just be related to play-style. In any case, I think I'd be better off diverting my attention elsewhere for the time being.

I don't really understand the town-reads of volxen. Everything he's posted seems like surface-level scum-hunting based mostly around points that have already been brought up by others, and as a whole it seems like he's much more interested in garnering why player X scum-reads player Y than providing scum-reads of his own. I'm more worried about him than 2.718 at the moment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: volxen

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Post Post #238  (isolation #6)  » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:25 am

In post 237, volxen wrote: Keyser - I actually like that he started the game by asking about hypoclaiming in , it showed that right off the bat he wanted to strategize on how to potentially make things more difficult for the scumteam. This is only my second game on this site so I don’t have any firsthand experience with hypoclaiming or its effectiveness, but I think it’s not likely that a member of the scumteam would suggest this as a tactic, since it could, theoretically, allow the watcher to reveal who they got a guilty on while making it more difficult for the scumteam to identify the real watcher.

Overall, I feel like he is someone that has been genuinely trying to gamesolve and move the game forward. He hasn’t done anything that comes across as scummy to me.


I'm not sure why you focused on Keyser's hypoclaiming post so much as a reason to town-read him when he specifically said it was NAI and doesn't really relate to him "genuinely trying to gamesolve".

In post 237, volxen wrote:northsidegal – I’m not really sure what to make of the whole comma’s thing. It seems like a stretch, but maybe she will have more to say about it.


She expanded on her reasoning just before you posted your reads list. Are you satisfied with her explanation? Is there anything troubling you about it?

In post 237, volxen wrote:2.718 – I really didn’t like his post-RVS opening in . I feel like he tried to completely misrepresent what Keyser really meant when he said that he didn’t want to talk about hypoclaiming/setup past page 1, and even after Keyser clarified this in (that he wasn’t “forbidding” discussion but rather that he didn’t want to partake in it himself), 2.718 still continued to press the issue in .

I also didn’t like that in 2.718 was quick to side with Reundo in the Keyser vs Reundo argument that was going on at the time. 2.718 made the comment here that “Reundo's 46 is a little annoying but I like how he looked at everyone”. At the time, Reundo only had two posts, and , in which he mainly focused on attacking Keyser, with only brief references made to Sesq, GameNBurger, and northsidegal in . 2.718’s post made it sound like Reundo was taking a balanced look at “everyone”, when in reality he was primarily just hammering down on Keyser. I feel like this was a very weak reason for 2.718 to jump in so quickly to side with Reundo.

I also find his town read of Reundo questionable in . He gave him a town score of 4.5, and all he really had to say was that Reundo’s post in was “great”, without stating why he thought it was great or pro-town. So once again, he is defending Reundo without really providing any explanation or reasoning. And then in , he literally says “I see nothing that is worth my attention”, as if he is simply not interested in trying to find scum anymore.


This isn't a terrible read, but it doesn't feel like you've considered 2.178's scum motive all that much. For instance, what would scum!2.718 gain from taking my side even as the Keyser wagon was waning?

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Post Post #247  (isolation #7)  » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:53 am

In post 245, Dunnstral wrote:Who was town reading Volxen?

In post 193, Dunnstral wrote:Volx looks town to me


You were? Also 2.718 in his reads list. What's not compelling about my case?

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Post Post #286  (isolation #8)  » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:28 pm

I'm on my phone rn so I can't really quote or respond to anyone right now, but for now I'll say that I think volxen's case against active lurkers is hypocritical considering he's been active lurking as well for the most part. Also don't like how he didn't respond to any of my questions and that his only critera for scum-reading people has been based on his "active lurking" theory. Admittedly, his later posts do seem a bit better for reasons I might explain later and the sheer speed of how the wagon built up is a bit suspcious, but my vote's fine here for now. I'm null on the duck.

I might have to go v/la for the weekend since I might literally not have access to wifi during that time, so just a head's up on that.

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Post Post #387  (isolation #9)  » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:19 pm

I don't really understand why the volxen wagon died down the way it did. The only town points he got was from northsidegal for being contradictory, and while I can sort of see where northsidegal is coming from it doesn't feel like a particularly strong town-read, and the contradictions run much deeper than mere activity. Looking back on it, post #254 is a lot more petty than I realized. I could see why some of the posts volxen mentioned could be viewed as active lurking, but to not put any more thought into players than "oh, they're active lurking, they're probably scum" is incredibly lazy and narrow-minded. It actually feels like he's afraid of contradicting himself, as if scum-reading someone for doing X means he also has to scum-read everyone who does X, and I'm struggling to see how town can be so close-minded. He gives himself a lot of town points for "having reads and trying to game solve" while completely ignoring that 2.718 made an entire reads list, and the least he could've done was acknowledge that fact and explain why 2.718's reads list was lazy/active-lurking/whatever instead of trying to sweep it under the rug and hope no one notices.

His recent trajectory isn't much better either. 2.718 seemed to be his biggest scum-read, but when northsidegal started town-reading him volxen didn't even bat an eye or seem to care at all really, not even an acknowledgement akin to "well, I guess you have a point on 2.178", and he seemed too eager to hop onto a counter wagon as soon as the opportunity opened up. He also said he was going to update his readslist tomorrow on Friday, and he still hasn't followed up on it. On one hand I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was busier than he intended, and I ended up posting later than I meant to once as well, but part of me feels he's just not bothering anymore because the pressure's been shifted to Sesq instead.

Sesq isn't a terrible lynch, but the way it built up didn't make much sense either. It seemed mostly based on their play here not lining up with their town meta, which sort of makes sense but unless their play here is similar to their scum game it might just be NAI. A lot of players have talked about their lack of motivation in this game, and it's debatable how much of this is genuine or just an excuse but it's wide-spread enough to where I can see Sesq just not being at their A-game this game. Just looking at this game specifically, I'm struggling to see a definite scum agenda to their play. I'm annoyed by their limited scum-reads and coasting behavior, but at the same time they clearly don't care about the impression they give off and they're not super motivated to start a counter-wagon, even going as far as to town-read volxen. It almost feels like they're playing to get lynched in some aspects, which honestly does make some sense as a scum play-style, but I'm kind of iffy on it.

Volxen is still my preferred lynch today. I'm not too opposed to a sesq lynch but I have a lot more reservations about it compared to volxen. Toranga/Dunn are my weakest nulls right now, so I probably won't cry a river over their lynches either, but volxen makes the most sense to me right now tbh.

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Post Post #392  (isolation #10)  » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:51 pm

In post 391, Dunnstral wrote:I feel like sesq's position on the wagon was bad.

They alluded to agreeing with you but when I asked them to point out parts of volxen's play they agreed with all they've done is question dodge


I mean, I guess it's a bit weird they wouldn't just answer your question even if the answer is obvious to them, but what would scum!sesq gain by not answering your question straight-up? Wouldn't it just make more sense for them to answer your question directly? You also alluded to volxen being a town-read earlier -- has your opinion changed since then?

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Post Post #465  (isolation #11)  » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:00 pm

I just see no risk in lynching volxen if we just get a new watcher by N1 anyways, and its just too unlikely that we'd hit the 1/12 chance of accidentally sending the real watcher to L-1 on D1. We're actually at a disadvantage if we wait for a watcher cc today, because we're guarenteed to not get a watcher result tonight wheras with the other two scenarios (just lynching volxen without cc, dont lynch volxen) we still have a chance at getting a watcher result.

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Post Post #469  (isolation #12)  » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:04 pm

I'm not a snowman! :evil:

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Post Post #475  (isolation #13)  » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:06 pm

I am an Oshawott! That's why I'm so grumpy right now!

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Post Post #482  (isolation #14)  » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:11 pm

In post 478, the worst wrote:REUNDO IS SUCH A CUTE NAME TELL ME YOIR STORY


It's a combination of redo + undo. I don't know, I just needed a username and it came to me randomly.

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Post Post #487  (isolation #15)  » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:19 pm

I just love how this game exploded in activity right when volxen claimed watcher. Hey volxen, why don't you give us that updated reads list you said you were working on earlier?

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Post Post #554  (isolation #16)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:27 pm

So, I was planning on casing Keyser, but then he started open wolfing even more than usual, so nvm on that.

VOTE: Keyser Söze

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Post Post #559  (isolation #17)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:38 pm

In post 557, the worst wrote:
In post 554, Reundo wrote:So, I was planning on casing Keyser, but then he started open wolfing even more than usual, so nvm on that.

VOTE: Keyser Söze

give me the crux of your case?


Do I really have to? Do you see what's happening ITT?

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Post Post #563  (isolation #18)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:45 pm

In post 560, the worst wrote:
In post 559, Reundo wrote:
In post 557, the worst wrote:give me the crux of your case?


Do I really have to? Do you see what's happening ITT?


I do my friend.... that's the problem


But I don't see what the problem is. Like, do you still think Keyser's town?

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Post Post #570  (isolation #19)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:58 pm

In post 565, the worst wrote:
In post 563, Reundo wrote:But I don't see what the problem is. Like, do you still think Keyser's town?

yeah tbh he's just pushing odd angles

In post 568, the worst wrote:slot was obvtown


Oh, do you mean before Keyser actually basically claimed scum?

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Post Post #574  (isolation #20)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:02 pm

Like, before all this shitposting, basically, not that he literally claimed scum.

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Post Post #579  (isolation #21)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:07 pm

Whatever, I guess I'll just make my case. I don't really have anything better to do anyways.

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Post Post #582  (isolation #22)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:16 pm

In post 581, Flicker wrote:Nauci replaces Sesq, effective immediately.


Fair warning, Nauci: this might be a tough game to figure out.

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Post Post #592  (isolation #23)  » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:15 pm

Spoiler: My Case On Keyser Söze
In post 123, volxen wrote:@Sesq, why not just share with us your reasons for scumreading Keyser? You started the game by taking a slight jab at him in , and then in you said that Keyser is “entirely detached from the state of the game ... but not in a scum way”.

In post 148, volxen wrote:@2.718, are you still scumreading Keyser?

In post 237, volxen wrote: Keyser - I actually like that he started the game by asking about hypoclaiming in , it showed that right off the bat he wanted to strategize on how to potentially make things more difficult for the scumteam. This is only my second game on this site so I don’t have any firsthand experience with hypoclaiming or its effectiveness, but I think it’s not likely that a member of the scumteam would suggest this as a tactic, since it could, theoretically, allow the watcher to reveal who they got a guilty on while making it more difficult for the scumteam to identify the real watcher.

Scum Reads:

2.718 – I really didn’t like his post-RVS opening in . I feel like he tried to completely misrepresent what Keyser really meant when he said that he didn’t want to talk about hypoclaiming/setup past page 1, and even after Keyser clarified this in (that he wasn’t “forbidding” discussion but rather that he didn’t want to partake in it himself), 2.718 still continued to press the issue in .

I also didn’t like that in 2.718 was quick to side with Reundo in the Keyser vs Reundo argument that was going on at the time. 2.718 made the comment here that “Reundo's 46 is a little annoying but I like how he looked at everyone”. At the time, Reundo only had two posts, and , in which he mainly focused on attacking Keyser, with only brief references made to Sesq, GameNBurger, and northsidegal in . 2.718’s post made it sound like Reundo was taking a balanced look at “everyone”, when in reality he was primarily just hammering down on Keyser. I feel like this was a very weak reason for 2.718 to jump in so quickly to side with Reundo.

In post 280, volxen wrote:
In post 256, Irrelephant11 wrote:@Volxen in your previous readslist why did you include more nullreads than scum or town reads?

Reundo is someone that I would like to get a read on, but I’ve been having a very difficult time trying to read him. I REALLY did NOT like the way he started this game in . But I’m not sure if his interactions (and arguments) with Keyser are SvT or TvT (Keyser is still a townread for me). The last time I went through his ISO and reviewed his interactions with Keyser, I ended up just getting really frustrated because I couldn’t get a read on him one way or another. I’m going to review Reundo’s content again, and hopefully I will catch something that I may have missed the first time around.

In post 484, volxen wrote:t like his entrance to the game and the way he attacked Keyser right off the bat, and I think the way he is playing this game is very opportunistic.


First point I was going to make was how volxen was literally obsessed with Keyser as the above quotes show. Even in his scum-read of 2.178 he couldn't help bringing up Keyser and giving yet another HOT TAKE on the whole me verses Keyser debate. This kind of focus is completely unnatural and forced, which could mean one of two things: A)That he was afraid of spewing anyone as town so he thought the best bet was to spew Keyser!town (plausible, but eh) OR B)That he was trying to make his scum-buddy seem as towny as possible, even when it goes way overboard, which is actually more unlikely than A, but becomes increasingly more likely when you take into account that Keyser basically blatantly distanced himself from volxen.

In post 123, volxen wrote:@Sesq, why not just share with us your reasons for scumreading Keyser? You started the game by taking a slight jab at him in , and then in you said that Keyser is “entirely detached from the state of the game ... but not in a scum way”. You also said in that post that you changed your mind about him, which would suggest you no longer found him scummy, but you kept your vote on him anyways. And then in you are apparently back to scumreading him. So why not just explain why you scumread him – is there really anything useful gained by putting it out there that you scumread him, but then refuse to elaborate any further? And what exactly did you mean when you said that he is “detached” from the state of the game, but in a way that is not indicative of him being scum? Trying to understand your motivations here.


This is a really bad entrance, especially according to Keyser's supposed method of scum-hunting: it was a post about a topic that was well over and done with (which he called out me for), a topic that likely wasn't going to lead to any AI responses at all (something that he later called out Dunn for). There was little reason why Keyser WOULDN'T call out volxen for this type of post, except, of course, if they were scum-buddies, which was the first big ping for a volxen/Keyser pairing, which was why I didn't really have any problem switching my vote over to volxen.

I'm not going to quote it here because it's a little long, but when Keyser responded to Ausuka's readslist he pretty much responded to all of her reads except for volxen and GameNBurger (though tbh he did talk about GameNBurger just a bit earlier), which was again blatant distancing between him and volxen.

In post 187, Keyser Söze wrote:I can see / clearly read Volxen’s posts, but don’t feel like they’ve opened up yet (free flowing posting). Feels too laboured/restricted at the moment.


This read of volxen makes no sense, and almost sounds like a town-read (?) which was why it was a little weird when he jumped onto volxen's wagon later in the day.

In post 266, Keyser Söze wrote:@volxen

Are you saying that those three players are scummy for contributing to the apathy/lurking that festers in this game? Or are you just pissed off for being s/read; being our first wagon?


It would make sense to at least try to look like he was pushing the volxen wagon. Not scummy in and of itself, but it implies he scum-reads volxen a little, which is a bit important later on.

In post 368, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 359, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’ll vote Sesq if that’s the lynch

Hey Irrelephant, I'm gonna go the WIFOM route sorry: do you think scum-Sesq would have a bit more survival/verve/urgency in them?


This is literally the only post I couldn't parse from scum!Keyser, but at the same time it would look almost a bit too bad if he jumped onto such easy lynchbait.

In post 374, Keyser Söze wrote:@Irrelephant - yeah gonna try and work an alternative wagon as we head into the deadline


This post, however, pretty much nullifies the affect the last post had, because I couldn't get why town!Keyser would want to move onto a new wagon when he didn't necessarily clear volxen or give any indication whatsoever that he was town-reading him.

That's pretty much all I had on volxen/Keyser distancing (or at least what I've bothered to bring up). I was then just basically going to summarize all the anti-town/scummy things he did this game, including but not limited to...

>Basically only responding to my initial case on him with "town could do the same things I'm doing right now!", which is a pretty petty defense, then when I brought up that I wasn't convinced by this he basically hammered down on the concept while later claiming I was focusing too much on him, despite the fact he basically didn't prove any of my points wrong so I had no reason not to shift focus.
>The fact that out of the whole lynch pool D1, the only player on there who didn't criticize Keyser directly was volxen, his own scum-buddy. His only scum-reads were basically people who criticized him and he was far too happy to throw out town-reads to anyone who town-read him, which completely neglects the possibility of buddying and is not town motivated at all.
>Related to the above, pretty much the way he was happy-go-lucky with everyone who town-read him but super aggressive with anyone who didn't. It wasn't a natural shift in tone, and it certainly wasn't town-motivated. Also, generally not accepting of the fact that people could possibly scum-read Keyser.
>Basically the way he did a complete 180 on me when I didn't suspect him anymore.
>Oh, and the super obvious Huntress night-kill. It's such a scum!Keyser night-kill it's not even funny, really.

There's probably some stuff I forgot, and a lot of the case is a bit rushed because I'm not too motivated to case caught scum so some of the points aren't all that polished, but I feel the above was plenty enough evidence here to convict scum!Keyser. Honestly, I was going to push a the worst/Keyser pairing at the start of the day because I thought the worst was pocketing a bit too much for my taste (and reminded me a lot of my first scum game with him) and the progression to voting volxen didn't really feel natural to me. I thought volxen put only town in his scum-reads because it basically read as a desperate attempt to start another counter-wagon and he wouldn't really want to bus Toranaga in that scenario, but I did suspect him a bit for pushing volxen but never actually voting him until it was clear he had to bus, which was a pretty noticeable ping. I thought Ausuka's votes felt opportunistic as well and I didn't find her initial read very organic, so my lynch plan would've basically been {Keyser, the worst, Toranaga, Ausuka} which would've worked out fine in the end anyhow.

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Post Post #704  (isolation #24)  » Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:35 am

In post 632, Keyser Söze wrote:- Town and scum usually fixate on my posts. They are very juicy.
- Volxen knew I was town, thus attacked the players who attacked me.
- I secretly like players defending me, so I allowed it, instead of stopping them.
- There were a few player reads of Ausuka that I did not feel there was enough content to discuss.
- My Post 187 was a reason to s/read Volxen. I try to highlight only scum alignment indicative points against a player.
- I joined Volxen’s wagon because it was a wagon I fully supported.
- Basically, Volxen reacted like frustrated scum when their wagon built up.
- Volxen was attacking players for NAI reasons.
- I did not want to join the lead wagon (Sesq) because it looked like the low hanging fruit counter wagon to Volxen.
- Irrelephant11 mentioned he was happy/ready to hammer Sesq so I wanted him to re-evaluate that slot via WIFOM.
- I wanted to support an alternative wagon to Sesq. Volxen was still viable. I stayed on it.
- Volxen was not trying to distance me. I was one easy t/read he could express without raising alarm bells, and then attack players for pressuring me.
- Your original scum case on me was filled with scum tells that are not even scum tells. They are NAI behaviour.
- I encouraged you to look at the whole playerlist instead of tunnelling fluff. You then began to scum hunt, and found scum (pat myself on back).
- My reads were pretty solid on D1. I do know what distancing and buddying are.
- I did not scum read every player that scum read me. I realise town can have bad reads. Or I may have helped towards that read through my playstyle.
- Town players can do a complete 180 read change on another player (if their posts justify it. Your posts justified my 180 on you).
- Huntress NK had nothing to do with me (it appears you are suffering from deep confirmation bias now). That NK was chosen as it was a safe night kill (I.e Huntress was very unlikely to be watched N1).


I would like to discuss your thoughts on Toranaga and Ausuka though.


Eh, I concede that I might be giving in a bit too much to confirmation bias. On second thought, that NK was probably just done to try to frame you as scum. Toranaga might be scum, but I'm a bit more suspicious of Ausuka for her vote flip-flopping. I can probably be convinced to go for an Ausuka wagon here.

In post 697, the worst wrote:northsidegal where art thou


Seconding this. I'm starting to get a bit wary of her. It'll be easy for her as scum to lurk with all these counter-wagons going about. :shifty:

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Post Post #809  (isolation #25)  » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:26 am

In post 784, Keyser Söze wrote:@Reundo - help me with Toranaga and Ausuka.
Both can’t be scum... so either both town, or one scum?


Hmm... I've been thinking about this, and I've decided that Toranaga probably is the scummier one out of the two. I could sort of get Ausuka's thought process throughout D1, but with Toranaga, he seemed to subtly push volxen throughout the day but never actually voted him until the last second. Doesn't really scream that towny to me, tbh. Also, I'm kind of just running out of things to post about. I'll just park my vote here for the time being.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Toranaga

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Post Post #817  (isolation #26)  » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:56 am

In post 812, the worst wrote:Reundo, do you really consider town!suka/scum!anaga to be more likely than t/t here?


Educate me on why this conversation is t/t. I think both of them have decent scum equity, and they probably both need to be lynched unless the other flips scum. I don't either looks any scummier than the other in their conversation alone, but as a whole I just view Toranaga a teeny bit scummier than Ausuka. That being said, I didn't really look into Eragon's ISO dive on Ausuka before posting, so maybe Ausuka actually is the scummier one here. I'd be surprised if they both flipped town, honestly.

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Post Post #946  (isolation #27)  » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:43 pm

VOTE: Ausuka

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Post Post #1266  (isolation #28)  » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:07 am

I'm back.

I think I was town-reading Dunn at some point during D2, but going back through his ISO I'm a bit less confident on that. I'm still hesitate about lynched him, mostly surrounding his interactions with volxen D1. Dunn was pretty strapped for some town-cred during D1, so I don't really think that as scum he'd want to defend his already scummy looking partner -- it'll basically lock in his lynch as soon as volxen's lynched. Even though it seemed like attention was shifting more to Sesq during the latter half of D1, there was still a fairly probable chance that volxen would still be lynched, so him doubling down on the sesq lynch -- even going as far as to town-read his own partner -- didn't seem like the most optimal scum plan. I'd feel as scum he'd be more inclined to bus his partner there and try to reap some town-cred instead of further digging his grave by associating himself with volxen so heavily. It's also clear he has no intentions of presenting himself as towny going into D2, which makes him hard to read admittedly, but also doesn't fall much in line with a scum agenda. Still, there are a few things about him that are a bit iffy, such as that time he almost seemed to forgot he even town-read volxen. Also, him complaining about Sesq question dodging while also dodging my question about how Sesq's question dodging was scum-indicative was also pretty yuck. I feel he has a decent enough chance of flipping town regardless, though.

Northsidegal can be credited with starting the momentum behind the counter-wagon on Sesq (Dunn was also voting Sesq, but that was before the counter-wagon on volxen and no one seemed to really care about his reasoning). I guess starting a counter-wagon to the wagon on your scum-buddy could be scum-indicative, but in that scenario I feel scum would just be content to see their partner lynched there. Being the front of a wagon she'd know would flip town (unless the pair is north/sesq/volx... yuck) would already not be a good look for her, but if the attention would ever divert back to volxen (which it did) then it'd make her look worse, and I don't see any scum agenda in putting herself in a lose-lose situation like that. Her reasons for town-reading volxen were plausible, and it would make sense why she'd want to lynch Sesq if she under-performed in comparison to her last town game. It's a bit suspicious that her peak moments of game-solving came right when volxen was about to be lynched, but it also coincides with the worst replacing in so idk. She also didn't seem to care about me town-reading Sesq, so that's another knock against me, but in a nutshell I think scum wouldn't be inclined to stick her head out as much as she did.

I still think Ausuka is a good lynch. My biggest town-points from her were because of her reads-list since I didn't see much scum motivation in town-reading a lot of the potential lynch pool, but that slowly evaporated when she showed she was willing to back down from e read because "people disagreed with her" and that she was willing to hop onto the Sesq wagon despite her tr on them because it was probably trash. The associations between her and volxen are also plausible from a scum persepctive -- she initially thought volxen was "active lurking" in her reads list, which gave her a good enough reason to bus volxen when it was clear he was about to be lynched, then when attention shifted to Sesq she decided her partner was no longer at much risk for being lynched so she jumped back onto Sesq. She later gave a semi-scumread of volxen later on, which gave her another excuse to bus him when lynching volxen once again became the hip new thing. As far as her D2 goes, her vote on me would almost be too bad to come from scum but it almost seems like she's sr'ing me for sr'ing her since I did voice some concerns about her just before then.

Most of that is going based off of just D1 so I might need to do a re-read to refresh my thoughts, but in a nutshell I'm most hesistant against a northsidegal lynch, semi-hesistant against a Dunn lynch, and not really that hesitant against an Ausuka lynch as well. I feel that people are almost too eager to lynch Ausuka though, so that's throwing me off a little, so I might consider starting a counter-wagon at some point. Also, Nauci is oozing town, and that's after considering possible buddying with regards to her high praises of me (which I appreciate a lot, fwiw :oops:), so everyone suspecting her is probably sus af.

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Post Post #1308  (isolation #29)  » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:43 am

Meh, I'm not too happy with this lynch, but it is what it is. Let's see if we can't get some spicy twilight reactions from Dunn.

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Post Post #1757  (isolation #30)  » Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:13 am

I'll get to this later tonight, but for now I'll just drop this off.

VOTE: Keyser Söze

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Post Post #1823  (isolation #31)  » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:13 am

@Keyser, I'm not sure how you got the impression I'm tr'ing the worst just because I didn't vote for him. In fact, his recent posting D3 made me realize he had more scum equity than he realized. There's just something about his push on me that's so murky. I get that I haven't been very active this game and I realize my performance hasn't been up to par from what town!him would normally expect of me, but to only push me based on my meta not lining up is very narrow-minded. I mean, he completely ignored that I'd have to bus my partner D1 -- and be the first one on said wagon at that -- and somehow not care to bus Dunnstral, even though I'd have a much better chance of surviving to endgame as scum than him. That's not to say it'd be impossible for me to do those things as scum or that I should get mountains of town-cred for it, but I feel a big part of why the worst is ignoring my play outside of comparisons to my town meta is because he can't genuinely make the argument I'd realistically do those things as scum, so he just tries to see how far he can push me on solely meta. The worst knows I'd 100% catch up to him if he's scum, and he knows it'll be too risky to night-kill me, so trying to get me lynched ASAP would be the ideal scum play from him, and a lot of his "paranoia" this day phrase reads more like him trying to see how many people he can throw into the lynch pool so he can blend in.

Amazingly, despite all of the above, I still feel Keyser is more likely to be the last scum. The worst acted kind of flip-floppy around volxen, but Keyser's interactions with volxen's were even more suspicious, even from volxen's end. I mean, I also kind of doubt that the first post volxen makes is calling out his own teammate's post, and it's also weird that GameNBurger would also call it out in the way he did. A lot of things line up neatly for scum!Keyser -- volxen interactions, D1 night-kill, etc. -- and the way he bussed his partners is believable from scum, especially regarding volxen when he was thinking of moving the wagon elsewhere yet still kept his vote on volxen as a "just in case" thing. His buddying up to me is also a bit uncomfortable, and in comparison to Nauci it doesn't feel natural at all. I can re-case him if it's necessary, but my original case on him still stands.

I don't really have a solid third pick for scum just yet, but honestly no one has nearly enough scum equity as Keyser. Nauci's my strongest town-read just because of how transparent and on-the-nose she is on everything, even when it comes to non-Keyser things. Eragon's my next pick for town because his scum-hunting also reads genuine in the same way as Nauci and also jives with the last game I played with him -- I don't even really understand why he was wagoned D2 all things considered. Irrelephant's my third town-read, but I admit I was kind of juggling with this one a bit. While he has some pingy interactions with volxen especially, there's just something about the way he posts that's so natural, and he's not putting as much thought into what he's saying as I'd expect from scum (I doubt he'd ever call his own partner "lynch-bait" when he was about to be lynched D1).

Everyone else is thrown into the null pile. Northsidegal's suspicions of me are a bit more grounded than the worst's but there's also a few iffy parts -- like, I knew that first "hammer" during D2 was entirely faked, so that was mostly just me playing along with the fake twilight, especially the "spicy reactions" bit, but like regardless I'm not going to put up a big show about something that's already happened anyways -- but she's sticking her neck out a lot more than I'd expect from scum, so she's probably the towniest null. I'm having a hard time reading Toranaga tbh mostly because of his posting style, but there's a lot of towny moments in his ISO as well, particularly with the way he cases people and his willingness to throw out town-reads on the fly.

Tldr, here's my reads list with town at the top and scum at the bottom:
{Nauci, Eragon, Irrelephant}
{northsidegal, Toranaga}
{the worst, Keyser}

I've been a bit out of the loop a lot of this game to be honest, so I'd probably need to do an in-depth ISO scan of everyone later, particularly when it comes to D2. I wouldn't have the time to do that until Monday, but there's also the issue of if I'd even have the motivation to do so, so I'm not going to make any promises. That being said, I don't expect the players in my town and scum brackets to shift at all, and I'm pretty confident scum is just between the worst and Keyser. I'll try to scout for other potential scum candidates as well, but I don't know how much luck I'll have with regards to that. I'll only be able to post late in the night today and Sunday, so only expect short responses to people during that time if anything at all, but come Monday I'll (hopefully) be in much better shape for game-solving.

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Post Post #1858  (isolation #32)  » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:32 pm

In post 1853, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1833, northsidegal wrote:i don't like how reundo's only mention of dunnstral is with regards to how he himself should be read and he doesn't take into account interactions with dunn when reading anybody else

i'd like to elaborate on this a little bit

the only area of reundo's in which he seems to take dunnstra's scumflip into any consideration at all is in his defense of himself, arguing that if he hard-bussed his partner (volxen) day one then theoretically he should have had no reservations about also bussing dunnstral. in none of his reads on other players does he mention associatives with dunnstral, despite mentioning plenty of interactions with volxen for various people when it comes to justifying his reads on them. i would argue from my own point of view that this is most apparent in his null-read on me which doesn't seem to take into consideration my influence when it came to dunnstral's lynch at all, but obviously you could say that's biased.

i would say that this shows a lack of true consideration when it comes to reads from reundo's part - he can talk in-depth about interactions with volxen, but he hasn't actually put in the work to come up with fake reads that take into account the dunnstral interactions, and so he just doesn't mention them. in essence, he's not reading the thread to make genuine reads.


Uh... this is mostly because I didn't really pay attention to much of what happened during D2 because it turned into a literal spam-fest and I was already starting to lost interest in this game. My reads list was mostly going off what happened D1 and my vague rememberings of what happened D2 -- I mentioned in my reads list that I wanted to ISO re-reads of everyone "particularly when it comes to D2" because I know I haven't been paying attention to that part of the game as much as I should have. Associations with regards to Dunnstral is probably one of the first things I'm going to be looking at in my re-read.

In post 1854, the worst wrote:but yes his reactions are completely within the range of what i'd expect from scum!Reundo


:lol: How would you even know what's in my scum range if you haven't seen me play scum before?

@the worst, can you actually prove I'm scum without referring back to my town meta? Like, pretend this is the very first game you've ever seen me play -- how do you prove I'm scum? I can only buy your paranoia for so long when you aren't even bothering to try to read me on the things I've actually done in this specific game for their own merit instead of always relating them back to "town!Reundo would play better than this!!!!!".

P-EDIT: I'm town backup.

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Post Post #1865  (isolation #33)  » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:10 pm

In post 1859, the worst wrote:
In post 1858, Reundo wrote:@the worst, can you actually prove I'm scum without referring back to my town meta? Like, pretend this is the very first game you've ever seen me play -- how do you prove I'm scum? I can only buy your paranoia for so long when you aren't even bothering to try to read me on the things I've actually done in this specific game for their own merit instead of always relating them back to "town!Reundo would play better than this!!!!!".

well like the problem we have atm is everyone looks like town for their own respective reasons
if you're not scum who the hell is?


OK... but why do I look "less town" than everyone else? I get that my past town games don't line up with this one, but to only push that a reason to scum-read me is incredibly lazy. If I'm 100% scum in your eyes, then it shouldn't be hard to explain why my play this game is scummy w/o even considering my meta at all, right? The fact you're still trying to dodge yourself out of casing scum!me w/o referring to meta comparisons makes me even more convinced that you simply can't do it.

In post 1864, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1858, Reundo wrote:Uh... this is mostly because I didn't really pay attention to much of what happened during D2 because it turned into a literal spam-fest and I was already starting to lost interest in this game. My reads list was mostly going off what happened D1 and my vague rememberings of what happened D2 -- I mentioned in my reads list that I wanted to ISO re-reads of everyone "particularly when it comes to D2" because I know I haven't been paying attention to that part of the game as much as I should have. Associations with regards to Dunnstral is probably one of the first things I'm going to be looking at in my re-read.

don't you think that's the kind of thing that should have been more at the forefront of what you were saying, if true? i mean, it just seems strange to me to put someone forward as your top pick for scum so confidently despite knowing that there's a large (and arguably incredibly important) part of the game that you just aren't taking into account.

i mean, you even said this regarding rereading the game:
In post 1823, Reundo wrote:That being said, I don't expect the players in my town and scum brackets to shift at all, and I'm pretty confident scum is just between the worst and Keyser.


shouldn't associatives with dunnstral be the exact kind of thing that you would expect to shift the players in your town or scum brackets?


It wasn't like I completely just didn't read D2 at all -- there was nothing that any of my scum-reads or town-reads did that caused me to rethink my read on them entirely. For my town reads in particular, I didn't really see any of them being a valid pair with volxen, so considering associations with relation to Dunnstral would be a bit pointless if I couldn't even see them teamed up with volxen. I guess I should've considered whether my scum-reads would've been valid pairs with Dunnstral by that logic, but volxen/Keyser is such an obvious pairing to me that I just couldn't see him getting out of my scum POE regardless of anything else he did honestly. I was kind of on the fence about the worst the whole game, but his push on me really irked me out -- I admit it was sort of a knee-jerk reaction, so I'd probably have to look a bit closer at the worst/Dunnstral interactions, but again I don't think he'd really be out of my scum POE either taking into account his narrow-minded push on me and some iffy interactions with volxen. I really don't get how putting it in the "forefront" would even make a difference, and to me it made more sense to just mention it in my summary.

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Post Post #1868  (isolation #34)  » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:48 pm

In post 1866, northsidegal wrote:let's talk about your keyser read popping up today and where it was yesterday

because, reading through your iso, at around the start of day two you were saying that keyser "" and made a massive case, but pretty much dropped it in a single sentence about how you might have been giving into confirmation bias. so what happened? did you still scumread keyser day two? if not, what happened to suddenly spark up the scumread again - after all, it probably wasn't anything from day 2, was it?


I realized that "confirmation bias" was probably a bullshit excuse so I changed my mind. It wasn't anything that he did D2 persay -- though there were a few things that firmed up my scum-read on him in hindsight that I might go over when I have more time on my hands -- it was just me realizing that I was probably right the first time around. I know the progression there isn't really obvious because it was mostly just me making that decision mentally during N2, but that was basically my thought process.

In post 1867, northsidegal wrote:by the way, don't you think that what you said about yourself when it comes to willingness to bus volxen and yet not bussing dunnstral would also hold true when it comes to the worst?


But the worst hammered Dunnstral??? I mean, he seemed pretty content to lynch both scum unless I'm horribly mis-remembering something, but even if that were true it's more based on how they bussed/not-bussed their partners more than the way they actually did it. I have to look into the Dunnstral wagon a bit more closely, but I know from D1 the worst didn't really take a hard stance towards lynching volxen until it was fairly obvious he was going to be the lynch. It was always "I could go for either sesq or volxen", which would give scum!the worst the opportunity to bus his partner if needed while also going for the easy mislynch if that's the way the cards played out -- he barely gained any town-cred for lynching volxen in my eyes, so the fact he would have to bus volxen as scum is pretty negligible to me.

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Post Post #1969  (isolation #35)  » Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:34 pm

I never got a chance to do my catch up! :( It was basically just going to end up with me listing a bunch of reasons why I wanted to lynch the worst anyways. Still disappointed you guys decided to hammer w/o hearing from me first, but that's basically my fault for being so inactive these past couple of days. Sorry about that everyone.

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Post Post #2050  (isolation #36)  » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:58 pm

VOTE: Keyser Söze

It's pretty much either him or Toranaga at this point, but Keyser is definitely the scummier one by a longshot. There's just zero world where any of Irrelephant/Nauci/Eragon flips scum.

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Post Post #2055  (isolation #37)  » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:17 pm

In post 2052, Nauci wrote:but before we start voting and whatnot

Reundo can you write out your full thoughts on why you think keyser is scummy, and why it couldn't be me/eragon/irrelephant


Yeah, sure. I'll try to work on this over today/tomorrow.

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Post Post #2060  (isolation #38)  » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:34 pm

In post 2056, Toranaga wrote:saying 3 people are never scum here isn't the sort of confidence you're supposed to have.


You didn't seem to have a problem when Eragon or Nauci did almost the exact same thing. Why is it a problem when I do it?

In post 2056, Toranaga wrote:I don't like that you're stalling yet again instead of posting your thoughts. seems like you're avoiding doing so cause crafting the fake reads will take a lot of effort from you


What thoughts have I avoided sharing? I've already stated my reads yesterday, which haven't changed going into today. At this point it's just a matter of me fleshing them out, which you can't expect me to do at the snap of a finger.

P-EDIT: Thank you, Nauci. That's exactly what I was trying to say.

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Post Post #2061  (isolation #39)  » Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:36 pm

And I only did it last gameday because it was largely during the weekend when I generally don't have much time to play mafia, and by the time I did have the time to write a catch-up the worst was already lynched.

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Post Post #2127  (isolation #40)  » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:49 am

I'm really sorry, I haven't had the time or motivation to gather my thoughts yet. I'll have to postpone my catch-up till at least Friday, but I'll try my hardest not to let you guys down.

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Post Post #2163  (isolation #41)  » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:23 pm

In post 2142, Eragon wrote:I'm willing to end it in about 12 hours.

That would be at like, 7:30 PM my time.

Or I'm also willing to do it tommorw(Sunday) at any time.


I know people can get busy. So I'm willing to leave them an extra ~24 hours or so


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Post Post #2164  (isolation #42)  » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:24 pm

I SWEAR I'M ACTUALLY GOING TO DO THIS TONIGHT!

I'M THINKING ABOUT ISOING KEYSER FIRST SINCE HE'S MY TOP PICK FOR SCUM, BUT IF THERE'S SOMEONE YOU GUYS WOULD LIKE ME TO ISO FIRST THEN TELL ME NOW!

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Post Post #2168  (isolation #43)  » Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:57 am

TIL if you Q+ a bunch of quotes on one page of someone's ISO and then go to the next page and string more quotes via Q+ then it apparently only remembers the quotes pulled from page 2 of their ISO. I had to regroup like half the posts I wanted to mention, so that was a lot of fun. Hopefully I'll be able to wrap this up tomorrow morning.

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Post Post #2171  (isolation #44)  » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:47 am

Good morning. Have yourself a serving of scum for a well-rounded breakfast.

This is just the first page of my ISO dive on Keyser. I was going to spoiler it but the tags messed up so I'll just have to post it raw.

In post 25, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 16, Sesq wrote:
In post 13, Keyser Söze wrote:Anyone played this setup before?

I.e what’s the best way to play it... does hypoclaiming help town or scum?

And while we’re all saying hello, what are your opinions on how to deal with lurkers.


please Please townread me

This was a page one question intended to be answered before we enter serious/non-RVS gameplay.

You shouldn’t see it as an attempt to look ‘townie’: it’s as non-alignment indicative as say a player asking if there is scum day chat - why are you being lazy/shortsighted?


So this is the first instance of Keyser being overly defensive. There's a lot of little things that bug me -- his insistence at looking at it a certain way ("you shouldn't see it..."), his weird mixture of trying to explain what he meant while also accusing Sesq for not immediately understand his intentions ("why are you being lazy") -- and while these aren't major reasons to scum-read Keyser in and of themselves they do tie in a lot with his defensive behavior as a whole. Both town and scum can be defensive, yes, but his method of defense was less trying to decipher the legitimacy of his accusers and more trying to wane attention off of himself, and the particular way he defends himself caters a lot more to town than scum.

In post 51, Keyser Söze wrote:Your entrance was hideous. Your second post lazy too.

It made me uncomfortable for the following reasons:

- choosing to chip in with an irrelevant snippet over a non-issue (does it even matter? Is cesq town for saying this, is my reaction scummy/irrational?) what was the goal of your post... to say I am a liar? to say I am scum?
- failure to see how I think arguing over non-alignment/irrelevant items are a waste of time... but still wanting to start it all back up again...
- presuming "defensive"/""driving discussion away" is scum alignment indicative (my action was pro-town). Discussing whether I think I could gain town cred for post #13 is laughable and inane.
- me forgetting that this is an open set-up RE: scum day chat is a talking issue...?
- "I don't think it would be too unreasonable for someone to town-read you for trying to strike up conversation" is this you disagreeing with me or you saying I am scum, or both?


Now tell me why town-me can't think your entrance can be hideous and lazy (you called me "weirdly defensive").

Tell me why town-me can't regret making post #13 in the first place, and that we should move on swiftly.

"sorry to disappoint but I don't really have any "charged feelings" about anything else".. tell me why that shouldn't frustrate/intrigue town-me.


(if you can explain to me scum motivation for all three points I'll be more convinced of your scum read of me. please make your reply more coherent than mine :giggle: )


This is an over-reaction to being voted, but it actually isn't that scummy in and of itself. There are a few weird things, like how he called his own action "pro town" even though that's debatable, but overall it's more important how he reacted to my follow up:

In post 105, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 103, Reundo wrote:I don't believe that you can't do any of the above as town

Ok, you're not as close-minded as I first thought :giggle: But your list of scum tells are still terrible :(

In quick reply to your wall:

- town can call their own posts non-alignment indicative when accused of being scummy.
- both town and scum can ask if there is day chat.
- a town player can show concern if they think going down an avenue will be unproductive.
- a town player can be very concerned about being put in "bad light" for unjust causes.
- a town player can stubbornly push to try to change the subject if they think it won't help find scum.
- townies can make dumb mistakes and provide incorrect examples.
- town can "attack" the player attacking them.


So basically his defense is that because town can theoretically do all of the things above, then that means I should just drop all my reasons for scum-reading him, apparently? The point is that I thought he'd be more likely to do those things as town than scum -- I mentioned that in the wall he replied to, and I pushed it further when I followed up with him again, but by that point he went ghost silent and decided to drop the matter entirely.

In post 115, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 111, Ausuka wrote:
Spoiler: Sesq
their posts are a rollercoaster ride to the point where if they flipped red I'd be actually impressed with the acting. also I don't really see the scum motivation exactly for saying "oh i tr you nope jk i scumread you"- it's so convoluted that I think the simplest explanation is that they're just town tbh.

I personally wouldn't jump to town lean/read yet. I wanted sesq to open up about their s/read of me, because right now I'm wondering if he actually realises his scum read/vote of me is not actually supported with anything tangible, and not possessing the town-humility to unvote (...states reasons why I'm town, but then posts "vote stays") :giggle: Didn't like him describing his own play/posting as "nuanced", as if he's super aware of it (that's probably just a pet-hate of mine though). He remains near null for me. Let's see if he can share more solid thoughts/reads.


Sesq's scum-read on Keyser "not actually supported with anything tangible" is a gross read and is entirely subjective.

In post 115, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 111, Ausuka wrote:
Spoiler: Reundo
I kinda dislike his entrance. Like, with Sesq and Keyser, I can see both sides - I don't think keyser's opening was LAMIST but I can totally see how somebody could see it that way. I almost feel like he's trying to push Keyser? but holding back for some reason. I don't see how it's really supposed to be scum-indicative for someone to dislike their posts being portrayed as lamist. The whole scum daychat thing appears to be kinda irrelevant? Like, I don't see the argument that Keyser as scum for some reason uses scum daychat as an example of something NAI whereas town!Keyser acknowledges it's NAI and moves on. What could the scum motivation ever be for lying in such an insignificant way? I also don't get why it's scummy to say "this is NAI" when someone pushes you for things you think are NAI. I also don't see how it's scum motivated to stop talking about his sr on Sesq as scum; I don't think scum would really mind repeating the same thing over and over at all? And why does scum!keyser pretend to forget about hypoclaiming? Like I might just be being stupid but I don't understand this at all.

Yup yup yup. Wouldn't mind some more pressure on Reundo. I don't know what and why Reundo is arguing. I realise I'm an easy player to provoke, but he's got to start looking at the whole playerlist, and be less fixated on this scum-day-chat/"defensive"/hypoclaiming/"driving discussion away" scum theory non-sense. It's arguing over fluff which is concerning. Even scum-me would be laughing at his scum case on me.


"Arguing over fluff", yet doesn't put anything else into it over then "All of the things you're scum-reading me for I can do as town too". This was another point that I challenged him to elaborate on, but again he decided to just drop the whole thing, which makes the whole thing read like pointless shade.

In post 121, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 117, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 53, GameNBurger wrote:
In post 23, Dunnstral wrote:We end up at 4 people alive but 1 person is confirmed town (watcher) or there's a cc

So it's not worse


We have a watcher no matter what and a base 1/3 of finding scum is in fact worse than 1/2 bass chance of finding scum

Unless you’re talking about something else I’m not reading because this doesn’t exactly communicate the idea clearly


I mean it's not worse than a regular game at 3 people alive

----

Keyser I don't think I caught you in the game we played, not sure why you think I should be "taking lead" today either

Keyser Söze wrote:If Dunnstral flips red I would actually wanna put Irrelephant under closer inspection (i.e ill-timed/ill-formed distancing attempt). Or vice versa. I've enjoyed talking to Irrelephant11 so he's on the green side of null so far.


This is bad preflip stuff and you have to jump to a lot of conclusions to get to this point - also it's not warranted at this time

VOTE: Sesq
This is a good place to put a serious vote

weird choice of posts to share comments on:

- first one about set-up talk
- second one about a previous game
- third one about early D1 pre-flip paranoia
- unexplained vote

In post 127, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 122, Dunnstral wrote:I'd rather be weird than scummy

I meant weird in a suspicious way (not towny).

I’ll wait for your full catchup.


Weird things to point out about Dunn's comments. The first one was a response to a post from GameNBurger. The second one didn't matter at all (who cares about bringing up a previous game, especially when it's, again, mostly a respone). The fourth was the only really valid one, but as it whole it feels like a mostly conjured up scum-read of sorts, which would make sense as something people would bring up when Dunn flips scum. It's also notable that he says he'll "wait for your full catchup" as an excuse to not vote his scum-buddy yet doesn't react at all when Dunn fails to deliver.

In post 140, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 139, Ausuka wrote:I mean, sometimes people disagree on what's AI, I don't think that makes 2.718 scum.

Wise words which I agree with. Willing to put that whole mess behind me, as I ended up arguing over fluff myself.


He's apparently "willing to put that whole mess behind him", yet right after this...

In post 143, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: Reundo


He decides to vote me, why? If he wants to put it behind him, what's the motive behind his vote? He says he was trying to assert the "genuineness" of his read, yet he never comes around to deliver on what he gleaned from his probing (which is also significant given he chastised Sesq for not explaning what they learned from their reaction tests earlier with regards to their sr on Keyser).

In post 187, Keyser Söze wrote:Sounds like Kop knows I’m town, that’s a relief ;)

Not sure I buy into NSG’s “staccato sentence/comma” theory - unless you can clearly show Kop only posting this style as scum, I think it’s too reachy for my taste.


I actually liked Toranaga’s entrance, but where’s the vote?


I can see / clearly read Volxen’s posts, but don’t feel like they’ve opened up yet (free flowing posting). Feels too laboured/restricted at the moment.

Irrelephant11 throwing his vote around is consistent with his last town game with me... do you do this regardless of alignment? :giggle:


I'm not impressed by most of this semi-reads list. Toranaga's entrance wasn't that impressive. Saying that volxen's posts felt "too laboured/restricted" felt like a fake read, and doesn't make sense considering volxen's entrance was piss-poor and should have ticked off Keyser considering that he also scum-read others for bringing up things in the past that weren't relevant.

In post 224, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: volxen

:twisted:


So here he votes volxen for what, exactly? Also, why would he be so keen to switch from voting me to voting who I was voting for -- was my recent post really enough to convince him that I was town or that he should somehow trust my judgement considering I was just scum-reading him for "fluff" earlier?

In post 252, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 166, Toranaga wrote:volxen/sesq/271 all fine lynches
In post 192, Toranaga wrote:I could case them all if I had the motivation to do so

You gonna add your case on Volxen while there is a wagon on him?


He's asking others to expand on volxen while also doing nothing to push him himself, which isn't a good look for him.

In post 266, Keyser Söze wrote:@volxen

Are you saying that those three players are scummy for contributing to the apathy/lurking that festers in this game? Or are you just pissed off for being s/read; being our first wagon?


This is the only post that Keyser makes directly criticizing volxen. It's a good point, but the fact that A)he never follows-up on volxen's response and B)he doesn't do anything else to push volxen, reads like a throwaway comment.

In post 424, Keyser Söze wrote:In the end, I realised I was the person to blame for all this fluff/mess, so those scum-feels slowly faded. Reundo has since then been sharing thoughts I too share, so he has redeemed himself IMO, and is no longer a threat but a teammate.


This post sounds a lot of alarms. He claimed that he was the one to blame for all this fluff/mess, but he would've realized this when he made that "willing to put this whole thing behind" comment, yet he voted me instead, which implies the exact opposite of what he's claiming. Furthermore, his "slowly fading" scum-feels correlates with my fading scum-feels as well, which suggests he isn't putting anymore effort into scum-reading me because I'm not scum-reading him, which falls in line with his overall lack of ability to scum-read players who town-read him and his tendency to scum-read players who scum-read him.

In post 537, Keyser Söze wrote:Yes, yes, scum partners bus, but at the time of reading these posts I did begin to see Reundo as a teammate who was sharing similar thoughts and suspicions as myself. He chose to oppose the Sesq wagon while it was selling like hot cakes (like myself) and hold the course with the more difficult Volxen wagon.

These three posts should at least give him safe passage into D3.


If Reundo is town, they possess impressive reading skills.


The important thing to note here is this is start of Keyser's whole "Reundo would be too good at scum to be scum / is never scum here" theory, and it's important to note while going through his ISO how it builds up and how it ultimately breaks down.

In post 632, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 592, Reundo wrote:
Spoiler: My Case On Keyser Söze
In post 123, volxen wrote:@Sesq, why not just share with us your reasons for scumreading Keyser? You started the game by taking a slight jab at him in , and then in you said that Keyser is “entirely detached from the state of the game ... but not in a scum way”.

In post 148, volxen wrote:@2.718, are you still scumreading Keyser?

In post 237, volxen wrote: Keyser - I actually like that he started the game by asking about hypoclaiming in , it showed that right off the bat he wanted to strategize on how to potentially make things more difficult for the scumteam. This is only my second game on this site so I don’t have any firsthand experience with hypoclaiming or its effectiveness, but I think it’s not likely that a member of the scumteam would suggest this as a tactic, since it could, theoretically, allow the watcher to reveal who they got a guilty on while making it more difficult for the scumteam to identify the real watcher.

Scum Reads:

2.718 – I really didn’t like his post-RVS opening in . I feel like he tried to completely misrepresent what Keyser really meant when he said that he didn’t want to talk about hypoclaiming/setup past page 1, and even after Keyser clarified this in (that he wasn’t “forbidding” discussion but rather that he didn’t want to partake in it himself), 2.718 still continued to press the issue in .

I also didn’t like that in 2.718 was quick to side with Reundo in the Keyser vs Reundo argument that was going on at the time. 2.718 made the comment here that “Reundo's 46 is a little annoying but I like how he looked at everyone”. At the time, Reundo only had two posts, and , in which he mainly focused on attacking Keyser, with only brief references made to Sesq, GameNBurger, and northsidegal in . 2.718’s post made it sound like Reundo was taking a balanced look at “everyone”, when in reality he was primarily just hammering down on Keyser. I feel like this was a very weak reason for 2.718 to jump in so quickly to side with Reundo.

In post 280, volxen wrote:
In post 256, Irrelephant11 wrote:@Volxen in your previous readslist why did you include more nullreads than scum or town reads?

Reundo is someone that I would like to get a read on, but I’ve been having a very difficult time trying to read him. I REALLY did NOT like the way he started this game in . But I’m not sure if his interactions (and arguments) with Keyser are SvT or TvT (Keyser is still a townread for me). The last time I went through his ISO and reviewed his interactions with Keyser, I ended up just getting really frustrated because I couldn’t get a read on him one way or another. I’m going to review Reundo’s content again, and hopefully I will catch something that I may have missed the first time around.

In post 484, volxen wrote:t like his entrance to the game and the way he attacked Keyser right off the bat, and I think the way he is playing this game is very opportunistic.


First point I was going to make was how volxen was literally obsessed with Keyser as the above quotes show. Even in his scum-read of 2.178 he couldn't help bringing up Keyser and giving yet another HOT TAKE on the whole me verses Keyser debate. This kind of focus is completely unnatural and forced, which could mean one of two things: A)That he was afraid of spewing anyone as town so he thought the best bet was to spew Keyser!town (plausible, but eh) OR B)That he was trying to make his scum-buddy seem as towny as possible, even when it goes way overboard, which is actually more unlikely than A, but becomes increasingly more likely when you take into account that Keyser basically blatantly distanced himself from volxen.

In post 123, volxen wrote:@Sesq, why not just share with us your reasons for scumreading Keyser? You started the game by taking a slight jab at him in , and then in you said that Keyser is “entirely detached from the state of the game ... but not in a scum way”. You also said in that post that you changed your mind about him, which would suggest you no longer found him scummy, but you kept your vote on him anyways. And then in you are apparently back to scumreading him. So why not just explain why you scumread him – is there really anything useful gained by putting it out there that you scumread him, but then refuse to elaborate any further? And what exactly did you mean when you said that he is “detached” from the state of the game, but in a way that is not indicative of him being scum? Trying to understand your motivations here.


This is a really bad entrance, especially according to Keyser's supposed method of scum-hunting: it was a post about a topic that was well over and done with (which he called out me for), a topic that likely wasn't going to lead to any AI responses at all (something that he later called out Dunn for). There was little reason why Keyser WOULDN'T call out volxen for this type of post, except, of course, if they were scum-buddies, which was the first big ping for a volxen/Keyser pairing, which was why I didn't really have any problem switching my vote over to volxen.

I'm not going to quote it here because it's a little long, but when Keyser responded to Ausuka's readslist he pretty much responded to all of her reads except for volxen and GameNBurger (though tbh he did talk about GameNBurger just a bit earlier), which was again blatant distancing between him and volxen.

In post 187, Keyser Söze wrote:I can see / clearly read Volxen’s posts, but don’t feel like they’ve opened up yet (free flowing posting). Feels too laboured/restricted at the moment.


This read of volxen makes no sense, and almost sounds like a town-read (?) which was why it was a little weird when he jumped onto volxen's wagon later in the day.

In post 266, Keyser Söze wrote:@volxen

Are you saying that those three players are scummy for contributing to the apathy/lurking that festers in this game? Or are you just pissed off for being s/read; being our first wagon?


It would make sense to at least try to look like he was pushing the volxen wagon. Not scummy in and of itself, but it implies he scum-reads volxen a little, which is a bit important later on.

In post 368, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 359, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’ll vote Sesq if that’s the lynch

Hey Irrelephant, I'm gonna go the WIFOM route sorry: do you think scum-Sesq would have a bit more survival/verve/urgency in them?


This is literally the only post I couldn't parse from scum!Keyser, but at the same time it would look almost a bit too bad if he jumped onto such easy lynchbait.

In post 374, Keyser Söze wrote:@Irrelephant - yeah gonna try and work an alternative wagon as we head into the deadline


This post, however, pretty much nullifies the affect the last post had, because I couldn't get why town!Keyser would want to move onto a new wagon when he didn't necessarily clear volxen or give any indication whatsoever that he was town-reading him.

That's pretty much all I had on volxen/Keyser distancing (or at least what I've bothered to bring up). I was then just basically going to summarize all the anti-town/scummy things he did this game, including but not limited to...

>Basically only responding to my initial case on him with "town could do the same things I'm doing right now!", which is a pretty petty defense, then when I brought up that I wasn't convinced by this he basically hammered down on the concept while later claiming I was focusing too much on him, despite the fact he basically didn't prove any of my points wrong so I had no reason not to shift focus.
>The fact that out of the whole lynch pool D1, the only player on there who didn't criticize Keyser directly was volxen, his own scum-buddy. His only scum-reads were basically people who criticized him and he was far too happy to throw out town-reads to anyone who town-read him, which completely neglects the possibility of buddying and is not town motivated at all.
>Related to the above, pretty much the way he was happy-go-lucky with everyone who town-read him but super aggressive with anyone who didn't. It wasn't a natural shift in tone, and it certainly wasn't town-motivated. Also, generally not accepting of the fact that people could possibly scum-read Keyser.
>Basically the way he did a complete 180 on me when I didn't suspect him anymore.
>Oh, and the super obvious Huntress night-kill. It's such a scum!Keyser night-kill it's not even funny, really.

There's probably some stuff I forgot, and a lot of the case is a bit rushed because I'm not too motivated to case caught scum so some of the points aren't all that polished, but I feel the above was plenty enough evidence here to convict scum!Keyser. Honestly, I was going to push a the worst/Keyser pairing at the start of the day because I thought the worst was pocketing a bit too much for my taste (and reminded me a lot of my first scum game with him) and the progression to voting volxen didn't really feel natural to me. I thought volxen put only town in his scum-reads because it basically read as a desperate attempt to start another counter-wagon and he wouldn't really want to bus Toranaga in that scenario, but I did suspect him a bit for pushing volxen but never actually voting him until it was clear he had to bus, which was a pretty noticeable ping. I thought Ausuka's votes felt opportunistic as well and I didn't find her initial read very organic, so my lynch plan would've basically been {Keyser, the worst, Toranaga, Ausuka} which would've worked out fine in the end anyhow.

- Town and scum usually fixate on my posts. They are very juicy.
- Volxen knew I was town, thus attacked the players who attacked me.
- I secretly like players defending me, so I allowed it, instead of stopping them.
- There were a few player reads of Ausuka that I did not feel there was enough content to discuss.
- My Post 187 was a reason to s/read Volxen. I try to highlight only scum alignment indicative points against a player.
- I joined Volxen’s wagon because it was a wagon I fully supported.
- Basically, Volxen reacted like frustrated scum when their wagon built up.
- Volxen was attacking players for NAI reasons.
- I did not want to join the lead wagon (Sesq) because it looked like the low hanging fruit counter wagon to Volxen.
- Irrelephant11 mentioned he was happy/ready to hammer Sesq so I wanted him to re-evaluate that slot via WIFOM.
- I wanted to support an alternative wagon to Sesq. Volxen was still viable. I stayed on it.
- Volxen was not trying to distance me. I was one easy t/read he could express without raising alarm bells, and then attack players for pressuring me.
- Your original scum case on me was filled with scum tells that are not even scum tells. They are NAI behaviour.
- I encouraged you to look at the whole playerlist instead of tunnelling fluff. You then began to scum hunt, and found scum (pat myself on back).
- My reads were pretty solid on D1. I do know what distancing and buddying are.
- I did not scum read every player that scum read me. I realise town can have bad reads. Or I may have helped towards that read through my playstyle.
- Town players can do a complete 180 read change on another player (if their posts justify it. Your posts justified my 180 on you).
- Huntress NK had nothing to do with me (it appears you are suffering from deep confirmation bias now). That NK was chosen as it was a safe night kill (I.e Huntress was very unlikely to be watched N1).


I would like to discuss your thoughts on Toranaga and Ausuka though.


This is a pretty similar defense to the first one he gave. There's a lot of "I can do the things you said as town too!!!" type points, which again is fairly unconvincing and doesn't address my concerns. A lot of them don't even make sense -- if he thought volxen acted like "frustrated scum" and that he was asking players for "NAI reasons", then why would he even propose starting a counter-wagon to volxen? He wasn't town-reading him for anything and had a plethora of reasons to scum-read him, so his only motive for jumping off of volxen would be if he didn't want him lynched for reasons that he hasn't disclosed (*cough* they're scum buddies *cough*).

In post 778, Keyser Söze wrote:I really wish Dunnstral would talk to Ausuka (or engage other players about his scum read, or even earnestly re-read the thread).

[Toranaga is at least doing this..]


So it's clear now that Keyser is scum-reading Dunnstral, which is important to note going through the next couple of posts.

In post 791, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 790, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 784, Keyser Söze wrote:@Reundo - help me with Toranaga and Ausuka.
Both can’t be scum... so either both town, or one scum?


Why do you call out to Reundo here?

Why not?

Reundo is a slot I have tangible reasons to t/read from D1 - so was hoping to see him open up and share his opinion on two slots I keep flipping on.

[So far D2 he has only expressed a thorough and logical scum case on me]


So here he's doubling down on me being town despite me scum-reading him, which he can't really do without looking pretty suspicious which he also doesn't need to do because he wasn't in any danger of being lynched himself. Dunnstral's "Why do you call out to Reundo here?" post was weird, and it read like him just throwing pointless shade on his partner to make himself look better if Keyser was lynched. The fact Keyser called it out doesn't change this much, and it seems like he's building up a pretty good transition towards busing his partner.

In post 856, Keyser Söze wrote:Still have a feeling Dunnstral is holding back on purpose.

VOTE: Dunnstral


@Dunnstral - show me one of your town games where you have been this distant.


Now Keyser is fully committed to voting Dunnstral, which is weird considering the post he makes shortly after...

In post 895, Keyser Söze wrote:Annoyingly I’m sure Dunnstral has the ability to get himself out of everybody’s PoE but he hasn’t been ‘here’ the whole game.


I'm not sure what this even supposed to mean. Is he saying that Dunnstral would be able to convince him if he just posted a bit more? That doesn't sound like a strong scum-read to me, and considering this setup doesn't have day-talk it could easily be a nudge to his scum-buddy to post more.

In post 906, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 823, Ausuka wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: Reundo

Talk me though how/why/when Reundo bussed Volxen on D1.
Paint me the narrative for me to believe it.


Here he clearly shows that he doesn't find it believable that scum!me would bus volxen, and at this point it's painfully clear he doesn't think I'm likely to be scum at all.

In post 1093, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1091, Toranaga wrote:ok, real talk

anyone scumreading dunnstral needs to read him shading the volxen wagon when it was L-2 and actually pushing people who voted there. is this in his scum range? because this is objectively towny. a player's first instinct while watching a wolf team mate go down, is to distance themselves from it. universally. dunn is not only not doing that, but actively pushing people with good reasoning behind it. this does not seem like he knows volxen is scum at all.

Spoiler:
In post 244, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 220, Reundo wrote:I don't really understand the town-reads of volxen. Everything he's posted seems like surface-level scum-hunting based mostly around points that have already been brought up by others, and as a whole it seems like he's much more interested in garnering why player X scum-reads player Y than providing scum-reads of his own. I'm more worried about him than 2.718 at the moment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: volxen

In post 221, Irrelephant11 wrote:VOTE: volxen

In post 222, Sesq wrote:Yeah, i can see that

VOTE: volxen

In post 224, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: volxen

:twisted:

In post 239, Ausuka wrote:VOTE: volxen


This momentum is pretty weird - I don't think Reundo's case in 220 is that compelling. Sesq looks bad here.

In post 245, Dunnstral wrote:Who was town reading Volxen?

In post 246, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 222, Sesq wrote:Yeah, i can see that


Can you point it out for me?


In post 285, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 246, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 222, Sesq wrote:Yeah, i can see that


Can you point it out for me?


Now would be a good time to explain this Sesq


In post 353, Dunnstral wrote:Still think sesq is question dodging

Ausuka votes are kind of weird, though

WIFOM dictates Dunnstral is likely town.........


I do love townies who are oblivious of how bad they’ll look after a flip.

Let me sit down and put the kettle on.


WIFOM dictates that Dunnstral is town??? That doesn't really make sense at all. As far as I recall Dunn still hasn't been posting much or making a good case for himself, so I don't see why he'd suddenly decide to stop scum-reading him due to "WIFOM".

In post 1176, Keyser Söze wrote:Dunnstral:

- defends scum
- opposes wagon on scum
- attacks town
- encourages wagon on town
- not motivated (or happy to be seen to not be motivated) about scum hunting
- no pro-active urgency demonstrated while being the lead wagon today
- weak ISO
- zero town cred won from D1 (Volxen bud was there for the taking)
- zero motivation to gain town cred for D2
- Lame OMGUS read
- minimal WIM


Tora opened up my eyes to town read him via WIFOM.

Scum-Dunstral would never survive to LYLO playing like this.

Proof of the pudding: he’s been in nearly everybody’s POE today, and likely some people will even want to kickstart his wagon before the deadline.


So before Dunnstral was apparently scum, and now it's "scum-Dunn would never survive to LyLo"? Like I understand that sometimes your opinions change, but Keyser has been flip-flopping far too much to reasonably come from town, and as it whole it reads like scum!Keyser jumping on the opportunity to push against his partner's lynch now that he realizes there's a good chance he can direct the lynch elsewhere.

In post 1210, Keyser Söze wrote:This game is about survival.
And Dunnstral’s supposed scum game isn’t helping him survive.
Scum-Dunnstral gets no benefit out of this or his remaining teammate: even if his partner busses, they’d get no town-cred.
It’s tactical suicide.

I believe scum are in my middle ground reads.


Again, more proof that Keyser apparently can't buy Dunnstral being scum at all, which is again a 180 from what he was pushing just pages earlier.

In post 1275, Keyser Söze wrote:I do love Reundo’s novella-style reads on players. They feel like a warm blanket that re-assure me.

His work on Volxen D1 was exemplary. For those alone I elected Reundo into my top tier of town reads at the start of D2.

His recent post regarding Dunnstral strengthens my resolve not to hang Dunnstral today.

Reundo also weakens my desire to flip NSG D2 (pointing out their D1 actions surrounding the Sesq counter wagon was not the scum-optimal-play).

Finally, Reundo has re-opened my reluctant suspicion of Ausuka, who jumped off the Volxen wagon, to join the Sesq wagon, then finally rejoining the Volxen wagon. Even though I town-lean the Ausuka slot, those actions are scummy in isolation (in the conventional VCA sense). This is my dilemma


This is pretty uncomfortable and unrealistic buddying -- surely he can't agree with everything I've written. It's also further evidence that Keyser doesn't want Dunnstral lynched, which is noteable going into page 2 of Keyser's ISO.

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Post Post #2172  (isolation #45)  » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:49 am

Now, onto dissecting the second page of Keyser's ISO... The spoiler's tag still not working for me, so sorry for the incoming wall.

In post 1497, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1359, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: Eragon

Probably gonna stay here for the rest of D2.

Dunnstral vs Eragon wagons competing makes most sense in my reads universe. Not going to give any town-scum, scum-scum association theory until we see a flip.

I may need to go back on my promise.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Sorry mate. I needed more tangible town motivation in your ISO to defend you with. In the end, I’ll have to concede and say WIFOM isn’t going to outweigh the surface level scummy actions in your D1/D2 behaviour. I hope to play again with you, but hopefully it’s in a game that engages/excites you.


Let’s end Day 2.


Now Keyser does a complete 180 on Dunnstral, despite him advocating so hard against his lynch for so long. Now that it's obvious Dunn is probably getting lynched, scum!Keyser decides the best course of action is to bus his partner to try and cash in his town-cred, which explains the abrupt transition regarding his read of Dunn.

In post 1516, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1513, Nauci wrote:
In post 387, Reundo wrote:I don't really understand why the volxen wagon died down the way it did. The only town points he got was from northsidegal for being contradictory, and while I can sort of see where northsidegal is coming from it doesn't feel like a particularly strong town-read, and the contradictions run much deeper than mere activity. Looking back on it, post #254 is a lot more petty than I realized. I could see why some of the posts volxen mentioned could be viewed as active lurking, but to not put any more thought into players than "oh, they're active lurking, they're probably scum" is incredibly lazy and narrow-minded. It actually feels like he's afraid of contradicting himself, as if scum-reading someone for doing X means he also has to scum-read everyone who does X, and I'm struggling to see how town can be so close-minded. He gives himself a lot of town points for "having reads and trying to game solve" while completely ignoring that 2.718 made an entire reads list, and the least he could've done was acknowledge that fact and explain why 2.718's reads list was lazy/active-lurking/whatever instead of trying to sweep it under the rug and hope no one notices.

His recent trajectory isn't much better either. 2.718 seemed to be his biggest scum-read, but when northsidegal started town-reading him volxen didn't even bat an eye or seem to care at all really, not even an acknowledgement akin to "well, I guess you have a point on 2.178", and he seemed too eager to hop onto a counter wagon as soon as the opportunity opened up. He also said he was going to update his readslist tomorrow on Friday, and he still hasn't followed up on it. On one hand I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was busier than he intended, and I ended up posting later than I meant to once as well, but part of me feels he's just not bothering anymore because the pressure's been shifted to Sesq instead.

Sesq isn't a terrible lynch, but the way it built up didn't make much sense either. It seemed mostly based on their play here not lining up with their town meta, which sort of makes sense but unless their play here is similar to their scum game it might just be NAI. A lot of players have talked about their lack of motivation in this game, and it's debatable how much of this is genuine or just an excuse but it's wide-spread enough to where I can see Sesq just not being at their A-game this game. Just looking at this game specifically, I'm struggling to see a definite scum agenda to their play. I'm annoyed by their limited scum-reads and coasting behavior, but at the same time they clearly don't care about the impression they give off and they're not super motivated to start a counter-wagon, even going as far as to town-read volxen. It almost feels like they're playing to get lynched in some aspects, which honestly does make some sense as a scum play-style, but I'm kind of iffy on it.

Volxen is still my preferred lynch today. I'm not too opposed to a sesq lynch but I have a lot more reservations about it compared to volxen. Toranga/Dunn are my weakest nulls right now, so I probably won't cry a river over their lynches either, but volxen makes the most sense to me right now tbh.


Btw this is one of those posts that put Reundo firmly into never-lynch territory


Yep, I noted 3 great uppercuts from Reundo on Volxen from D1. #pivotal


Spoiler:
In post 537, Keyser Söze wrote:Master Reundo won big town-cred from D1. After his awkward examination of me (once scummy, but now forgiven), Reundo changed up his focus and gave us a tour-de-force in delivering the Volxen lynch. Here are the 3 killer posts:

In post 119, Reundo wrote:volxen - His post-RVS introduction was pretty pointless and actually did nothing to add to the discussion. I get I might be kind of a hypocrite since similar things have been said about my introduction, but it seems even more exaggerated in that the distance between the post he was responding to and his actual post number were literally pages apart and that all he said was basically just paraphrasing what northsidegal said. A lean scum for me.

In post 220, Reundo wrote:I don't really understand the town-reads of volxen. Everything he's posted seems like surface-level scum-hunting based mostly around points that have already been brought up by others, and as a whole it seems like he's much more interested in garnering why player X scum-reads player Y than providing scum-reads of his own. I'm more worried about him than 2.718 at the moment.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: volxen

In post 387, Reundo wrote:I don't really understand why the volxen wagon died down the way it did. The only town points he got was from northsidegal for being contradictory, and while I can sort of see where northsidegal is coming from it doesn't feel like a particularly strong town-read, and the contradictions run much deeper than mere activity. Looking back on it, post #254 is a lot more petty than I realized. I could see why some of the posts volxen mentioned could be viewed as active lurking, but to not put any more thought into players than "oh, they're active lurking, they're probably scum" is incredibly lazy and narrow-minded. It actually feels like he's afraid of contradicting himself, as if scum-reading someone for doing X means he also has to scum-read everyone who does X, and I'm struggling to see how town can be so close-minded. He gives himself a lot of town points for "having reads and trying to game solve" while completely ignoring that 2.718 made an entire reads list, and the least he could've done was acknowledge that fact and explain why 2.718's reads list was lazy/active-lurking/whatever instead of trying to sweep it under the rug and hope no one notices.

His recent trajectory isn't much better either. 2.718 seemed to be his biggest scum-read, but when northsidegal started town-reading him volxen didn't even bat an eye or seem to care at all really, not even an acknowledgement akin to "well, I guess you have a point on 2.178", and he seemed too eager to hop onto a counter wagon as soon as the opportunity opened up. He also said he was going to update his readslist tomorrow on Friday, and he still hasn't followed up on it. On one hand I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was busier than he intended, and I ended up posting later than I meant to once as well, but part of me feels he's just not bothering anymore because the pressure's been shifted to Sesq instead.

Sesq isn't a terrible lynch, but the way it built up didn't make much sense either. It seemed mostly based on their play here not lining up with their town meta, which sort of makes sense but unless their play here is similar to their scum game it might just be NAI. A lot of players have talked about their lack of motivation in this game, and it's debatable how much of this is genuine or just an excuse but it's wide-spread enough to where I can see Sesq just not being at their A-game this game. Just looking at this game specifically, I'm struggling to see a definite scum agenda to their play. I'm annoyed by their limited scum-reads and coasting behavior, but at the same time they clearly don't care about the impression they give off and they're not super motivated to start a counter-wagon, even going as far as to town-read volxen. It almost feels like they're playing to get lynched in some aspects, which honestly does make some sense as a scum play-style, but I'm kind of iffy on it.

Volxen is still my preferred lynch today. I'm not too opposed to a sesq lynch but I have a lot more reservations about it compared to volxen. Toranga/Dunn are my weakest nulls right now, so I probably won't cry a river over their lynches either, but volxen makes the most sense to me right now tbh.



Yes, yes, scum partners bus, but at the time of reading these posts I did begin to see Reundo as a teammate who was sharing similar thoughts and suspicions as myself. He chose to oppose the Sesq wagon while it was selling like hot cakes (like myself) and hold the course with the more difficult Volxen wagon.

These three posts should at least give him safe passage into D3.


If Reundo is town, they possess impressive reading skills.


Here he agrees with Nauci that I'm in his "never lynch" pool, further citing three posts of mine that supports his view, which again demonstrates the sheer magnitude and strength of his town-read on me.

In post 1558, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1552, Eragon wrote:Also, the fact that your talking about MY confidence is ???

Keyser went from hard-defending Dunn with nothing but WIFOM read, and then he suddenly switches to
“If Dunn flips town I’m replacing out”
That’s literally staking his part of the game on dunn’s Flip being red.

If that’s not confidence, then I don’t know what is

I’m not confident of Dunn flipping red. You have misunderstood my post.

I will lose interest in this game if he flips green.


So he's not confident that Dunn will flip red, yet he'll lose interest in the game if he flips green? Why would his interest in the game even wane on Dunnstral flipping green? Like, I guess it would be annoying if he flipped green since he did nothing to defend himself, but it's definitely not a game-ending lynch or anything. This just reads like a weird excuse to justify his complete 180 on Dunn.

In post 1601, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1593, northsidegal wrote:
In post 1590, northsidegal wrote:what're the odds reundo is scum?

meh, not sure. he was right there on the volxen wagon, but townread dunnstral day 2 (albeit for reasons consistent with reasons for him townreading me). his reaction at the end of the day seems pretty strange to me coming from someone who had a townread on dunn, though.

In post 1591, Keyser Söze wrote:Wellplayed Ausuka x

Reundo town through and through for me.
Crystal clear scum read progression and methodology on Volxen.
Delightful brain waves regarding Dunnstral slot that I felt during the middle part of D2.
If scum, an exceptional scum player I will never want to play with again as his scum game is untraceable in my eyes and he mirrored many of my developing thoughts on players.
Town


This is probably the strongest town-read of me he's given yet, even to go as far as to say that my scum game is "untraceable" and that's he'd never want to play with me again if I were scum. It would be reasonable then to assume that his town-read of me would take a lot of work to break down, and that it'll take a lot of convincing for him to view me as scum. Except...

In post 1663, Keyser Söze wrote:I’d be very uncomfortable lynching Reundo today (he has more town cred than even me!) :giggle:


Why would he be uncomfortable lynching me today? I thought he just said literally a few pages ago that I'm town "through and through" -- why would he want to lynch me ever?

In post 1678, Keyser Söze wrote:I guess Reundo would only be lynched if he got to the last 3.



His intricate scum case on me was so well constructed, painting me as Volxen’s perfect partner...
But I don’t see two scum trying to set me up like that for a single misslynch.
It felt more like a townie starting with a scum read on me, then turning everything I wrote into something scummy, and every thing Volxen wrote as a link to me. I’m nobody though, just a man with a vote.


So now he does want me lynched despite advocating so hard that he could basically never see me as scum, which doesn't feel like a genuine transition in the slightest. Remind you, this is just pages after he claimed that he was so confident I was town that he'd never want to play with me against if I'm scum since my scum-game would be "untraceable".

In post 1834, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1831, Toranaga wrote:VOTE: reundo

scummy af entrance

Yeah, Reundo had the worst entrance out of every player.

Reundo still demonstrating the inability to post in real time.



So is that his thing, post enough to pull of a clinical bus of his teammate and cash in towncred galore, day two doesn’t know what to do as he witnesses his scum mate being savaged, a wagon he was half hesitant with...?

After consulting my teammates, IT’S SIMPLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH :evil:

Image



You no longer deserve the cloak of invincibility I bestowed upon you!


This complete 180 on me doesn't make any sense at all, and I feel the only reason he's completely changing his read on me is that it's clear I'm a viable mislynch target and that scum-reading me is the new cool and popular opinion to have. This constant flip-flopping of me being town or scum makes absolutely no sense from town, and neither does his constant flip-flopping of his read on Dunnstral.

In post 1850, Keyser Söze wrote:Hmmm... the Reundo in this game has lost his voice.

There is no soul in his posts!


It’s like a demon has possessed the body of Reundo and is trying to mimic him! :o


In post 1856, Keyser Söze wrote:I CAST YOU OUT, UNCLEAN SPIRIT!



VOTE: Reundo


So now he's fully committed to lynching the player he once thought was the most towny in the game, and compared to the mountains of posts he made D2 where he was convinced I was never scum this vote just doesn't feel natural at all.

In post 1896, Keyser Söze wrote:Reundo’s 3-hit strike on Volxen is remarkable but what else in his ISO says town?


Keyser's literally made posts where he pulled up strings of posts that he believed were town-indicative. He's brought up numerous posts from mine that he suggested were towny. Acting like he never town-read me at all or town-read me outside of the "3-hit strike on Volxen" is disingenuous and completely untrue, and there'd be no reason for him to lie like this as town.

In post 2067, Keyser Söze wrote:Where my head is right now regarding Reundo.

The scum narrative:

- uncomfortable start pressing non alignment indicative factors as scummy (worst entrance by any player), realises he needs to save his slot
- busses teammate (Volxen) and continues miminal posting
- sets himself up perfectly: nobody can put together a strong case versus his small ISO, and will all bestow town cred on him for his acute push on flipped scum. He’s happy to be town read and be outside everyone's PoE
- half hesitant with Dunnstral wagon
- continues a suspicious periphery presence (choosing when to join the game when a misslynch is viable)
- I actually think he’s out of his element with the town players in this playerslist so has failed to engage one on one in real time. We could have had a perfect game lynching him yesterday.
- his reads reflect two misslynches lined up (his only strategy now)
- his timing to show up is always bad (scum indicative opportunistic/survivalist behaviour)
- there is a serious lack of WIM from his slot (the least WIM demonstrated by all the playerlist, despite apparently dunking on scum on D1)
- no pro-active sorting of the playerlist (where is the sincere town initiative, the paranoia, the genuine concern of someone challenging both his reads and others?
- the more he posts about myself/Toranaga the more likely he’ll be lynched tomorrow anyway (so he’s in a dilemma, thus, his pro-active contributions will be underwhelming yet again)
- meta: his posts lack the soul of the town meta I have read of his. This Reundo is not the real town Reundo, but a fake imitation.


Promised to ISO each player though first before I vote.


This scum narrative ignores the fact that he himself was half-hesistant on Dunnstral, and as a whole it just looks he's just drumming up reasons to scum-read me.

In post 2090, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2076, Irrelephant11 wrote:So fmpov either scum is eragon or one scum bussed the volxen lynch
that challenges some assumptions

I've been along the 'scum bussed scum' narrative for a long time now. So I expect attention my way via VCA (I'm on both the Volxen and Dunstral lynch wagons).

Let's face it though, Volxen was no hard lynch. There wasn't an uphill struggle to make their wagon/lynch viable. If Volxen had been mass-town cred, then cased, then maybe you would give massive kudos to the people who pro-actively pushed his wagon, but no.

Dead weight scum is dead weight scum.


Wait... Keyser literally said at the start of D2 that I decided to "hold the course with the more difficult Volxen wagon". Why does he suddenly think the volxen lynch wasn't hard at all? It feels like he's just sticking to the explanation that best fits with his current read of me -- if he's town reading me, then the volxen wagon was impressive and there wouldn't be any reason for me to jump back on him, if he's scum reading me, then the volxen wagon is a piece of cake and it wouldn't be hard at all for scum to pull off a bus.

In post 2096, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2061, Reundo wrote:And I only did it last gameday because it was largely during the weekend when I generally don't have much time to play mafia, and by the time I did have the time to write a catch-up the worst was already lynched.

Excuses excuses.

You do realise how long the game days are?

You watched us miss lynch The Worst.





In post 2050, Reundo wrote:VOTE: Keyser Söze

It's pretty much either him or Toranaga at this point, but Keyser is definitely the scummier one by a longshot. There's just zero world where any of Irrelephant/Nauci/Eragon flips scum.

Explain to me how you are so sure?

I've studied every post and tried to be as attentive as possible but even I would fully town clear 'Irrelephant/Nauci/Eragon' - where is the paranoia to rationalize and do the due diligence homework to support any of your reads?

It was me or the worst yesterday, and now me and Tora today? I knew you were lining up misslynches as soon as I realised you weren't reading the thread/analysing/revising your reads.

You don't even have the interactions to be so locked into confirmation bias either (like I was with Eragon)


So now I'm scum because I'm not paranoid enough for his liking? OK then. And it'll be reasonable for me to think it would be Keyser and Tora today if the former was a town-read, the latter was a null-read, and everyone was town. I can't possibly think one of my town-reads was scum. And him trying to brush off his scum-read of Eragon as being "locked into confirmation bias" rubs me the wrong way.

In conclusion, it's clear that Keyser is very likely to be the last scum. He defended himself a lot the whole game, and it was clear it was more suited to driving suspicion away from him then actually attempting to scum-hunt off of people scum-reading him. His only scum-reads D1 were either those who were directly scum-reading him or were heavily influenced by the opinions of others. He never gave a clear stance on volxen, and it was evident through his own scum-hunting criteria that he should've been a lot more suspicious of volxen. He constantly shifted his read on Dunnstral with very little indication between each transition. His flip-flopping on his read of me is even more suspicious, and there's many moments of him blatantly contradicting himself to try to push my lynch -- what he once thought was towny of me is now apparently scummy, what he once thought was a hard lynch (volxen's lynch) is now apparently not a hard lynch at all. His criteria for scum-reading people is not consistent at all and as a whole he seems content to just go with the flow and align his opinions with the majority of the player-base. There's hardly a shred of town in him when you really break down his play, and I'd be beyond surprised if Keyser flips town here.

So that's my Keyser ISO done. I think I'm going to work on ISO'ing Toranaga next since he's the next likely to be scum, but even his play is incredibly towny when compared with Keyser. I'm pretty confident that Keyser is just the answer here, but I'll probably ISO everyone else anyways just to double check, but if for whatever I reason I don't get to it then just know that Keyser needs to be lynched, period.

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Post Post #2202  (isolation #46)  » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:08 am

Sorry for the radio silence. I'll get my Toranaga ISO done tonight.

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Post Post #2227  (isolation #47)  » Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:27 am

Going through Toranaga's ISO, I realized he had a lot less scum equity than I originally suspected, especially in comparison to Keyser. His D1 is honestly pretty underwhelming -- I didn't like how long he held onto his vote, and he didn't really do much other than throw out a couple of weak reads -- but his volxen vote was surprising, especially with regards to the timing. He could've easily lynched Sesq there, but instead he decided to rebuild momentum on the volxen wagon. While I could see him doing it as a grab for town-cred, I still feel the optimal play would've been to vote Sesq if he were scum. His reasoning for voting him and not voting Sesq also seemed sound, so it didn't feel like a fake or forced read/vote.

Torananga's D2 is considerably stronger than his D1. Compared to D1, he seemed a lot more passionate about game-solving, through his VCA analysis and in-depth casing. I especially liked his case on northsidegal -- I didn't think her play was scum-indicative as a whole, but I could follow along with his thought-process and how he'd personally come to the conclusion that she's scum. His flip-flopping on Dunnstral is of course something to take into consideration considering he flipped scum, and while there are a few iffy spots I think as a whole it's not that suspicious. He starts out D2 scum-reading Dunnstral, but he soon switches to town-reading him instead. The reason why this isn't scummy to me is that it doesn't feel influenced by anyone else's reads or thought process -- he seemed to arrive to the conclusion of town!Dunnstral through his own means, and I really don't see why as scum he'd suddenly switch from bussing his partner to hard town-reading him when no one even hinted at a town read of Dunn. A lot of his reasons for town-reading Dunnstral aligned with mine, and I even unintentionally pocketed him with my semi-readslist halfway through D2. There are a few moments when he admits some of the things Dunn has done was scummy, but I think that's pretty towny of him since it shows he's willing to rethink his biases. He was on the Dunnstral wagon at the end of the day, but like with volxen he easily could've jumped on the Eragon wagon, and it seems like he thought more of Dunnstral as a null read ("I'll be unsurprised whatever dunn flips tbh") than a scum read, which shows he didn't do a complete 180 read on his Dunnstral town-read.

There certainly are a lot of things bothering me about Toranaga's play, mostly his lackluster D1 and his hesitance to vote volxen, but it looks a lot better when compared with Keyser. With the volxen wagon, I could see why town!Tora would want to hold onto his vote until he ISO'd sesq and volxen -- I don't think it's a great reason, but it's at least plausible. Meanwhile, I don't see why Keyser would respond immediately to pretty much everyone's D1 entrance yet ignore volxen's entrance until much later, especially when it should've pinged him through his own scum criteria, especially with regards to bringing up irrelevant points (admittedly, it would be a bit weird how scum!Keyser would respond to Dunn's entrance yet ignore volxen's, but thinking over it it'd be equally weird if he straight up ignored both of his partners). Both Tora and Keyser flip-flop on their reads of Dunn throughout D2, but Tora seems to have a lot more forward momentum compared to Keyser. Toranaga was one of the first to populate the idea of town!Dunn, and as scum he would've known he would be suspect as soon as he flips red, which makes it less likely he'd actually do it. Contrast that with Keyser, who pretty much just pocketed Toranaga on his Dunnstral read, which also makes a lot of sense as scum -- someone was bound to town-read Dunnstral immediately, so by waiting until someone did just that, Keyser holds a lot less responsibility when Dunn does flip red, and if no one comes to his defense then he could just be free to hard-bus Dunn, which would give scum!Keyser a lot of options. As a whole, I find it much more believable that Keyser would bus his partners than Toranaga, and Toranaga's play as a whole feels more like genuine game-solving whereas Keyser just feels like he's going with the flow most of the time and changing his reads to fit the status quo, even if it goes against what he originally considers towny/scummy behavior.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to get to other ISOs, but imo it's not really necessary. Nauci for one is always town, firstly because I don't see both scum-partners deciding to bus Sesq D1, and partly because her game-solving feels genuine and I find myself agreeing with her points more often than not. Irrelephant has sort of a "post whatever comes to mind" playstyle, and there's certain moments would it'd actually hurt him as scum. Like, at the end of D1 for instance, he was reluctant on volxen and ended up unvoting and calling him "lynchbait", and as scum it would be a needless way to burn town-cred, whereas as town I could see how he could've fallen for volxen's defense. There are a few weird Dunn interactions, but they're definitely not as weird as Keyser or Tora. He also did a townslip D1 when he thought that scum had day-chat -- but he also did point that slip out himself so ehhhh -- but really as a whole I'm just getting a strong town vibe from him. Eragon's been playing very similar to the last game I played with him, and in that game a lot of people were calling him out for being "surface level towny" too (it was actually more LAMIST, but it's basically the same concept), so I don't feel the accusations made against him this game were just. I don't really see how Eragon was flip-flopping on Dunnstral tbh -- it just felt like he was strong scum-reading him the whole time with only a few blips of "well, maybe he could be town", but it's towny to doubt yourself once in a while and it definitely wasn't excessive in the vain of Keyser.

I know it's probably too late to stop myself from being lynched, and honestly with how inactive I've been I'd probably want myself lynched too, but if I do get lynched today I want Keyser to get lynched tomorrow 100%. I honestly feel he has more scum equity than everyone else in the game. Toranaga is a distant second, and while I'd want you guys to think over things in LyLo I strongly feel that Keyser is the most likely to be scum this game. There has been a few towny things Keyser's done this game, but literally everyone still alive has done ton of towny things, but I feel Keyser is just pretending to be town whereas everyone else has towny, natural reads and progressions, and while others do flip-flop on their reads there's almost always a clear progression from how they got from point A to point B whereas with Keyser he almost seems to just flip his reads at a snap of the finger. I'm confident saying that Keyser is scum this game, and there's nothing that would change my mind on that.

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Post Post #2240  (isolation #48)  » Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:50 am

In post 2229, Keyser Söze wrote:I’m not scum.
I was hoping you could turn the game on it’s head. You have invested too much “equity” into one player and not enough looking at the whole playerlist - something that you should have done today as you have been such a distant figure.


How much would be "enough" for you? I already cased my biggest scum-read and explained why I think my second biggest scum-read probably isn't scum, and I've been commenting on other people's play numerous times throughout the game. Really, I just think you're using this whole "not looking at the whole playerlist" excuse to try to get me off of you.

In post 2229, Keyser Söze wrote:FYI: Flip flopping isn’t scummy. And it’s especially not NAI if I keep flip flopping to lynch scum.


You can't just keeping saying that X isn't scummy like it's always just black and white, and the same goes for your "defensiveness isn't scummy" point too. It's less about what you do and more about the way you do it, and I've explained numerous times how I thought why these specific instances of defensiveness and flip-flopping are scum-indicative to me.

In post 2233, Irrelephant11 wrote:on another note I laughed out loud at tor casing himself
I never thought tor was scum I just wanted to see if Reundo would take advantage of my "strongest scumread" and suddenly find tor to be scummier than keyser


To be fair, this would still be pretty bad play if I were scum. If I were scum, I'd probably just leave Torananga at #2 and hope that a Keyser -> Toranaga lynch-chain goes through. Putting Toranaga first doesn't chance the ultimate lynch path and just makes me look needlessly scummier imo.

In post 2233, Irrelephant11 wrote:@reundo can you explain why you've been so quiet overall?


I'm not really sure. I guess on a subconscious level I care more about how I come off than I really should, and I think that plays into why I don't post that much. I also think my drive for playing mafia is kind of waning a bit. Like, if I get started on posting then I'd probably spend a good few hours straight analyzing the game, but finding the motivation to actually get started writing something is kind of hard for me. Whenever I try to post something it takes me way longer than it should, like I'd pop in hoping to whip up a quick post in 10 minutes and it ends up taking me an hour for some reason, and the sheer time sink required from me just steers me away from posting in general, and I've had a lot less time on my hands overall than I used to.

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Post Post #2322  (isolation #49)  » Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:16 pm

In post 2242, Keyser Söze wrote:@Reundo

Have you attempted to look at the game in the chance that you are wrong about me?


... Yes? I mean, I went through Toranaga's ISO just to make sure I wasn't missing anything blatantly scum indicative and I came out viewing him even townier than I have before. There's no point in looking at the game in the chance I'm wrong because I'm almost always the lynch today. Fmpov I have only one shot at nailing scum, and if I'm wrong about you then it's game over for me, but I'm pretty confident I'm not wrong about you.

In post 2250, Nauci wrote:
In post 2240, Reundo wrote:I'm not really sure. I guess on a subconscious level I care more about how I come off than I really should, and I think that plays into why I don't post that much. I also think my drive for playing mafia is kind of waning a bit. Like, if I get started on posting then I'd probably spend a good few hours straight analyzing the game, but finding the motivation to actually get started writing something is kind of hard for me. Whenever I try to post something it takes me way longer than it should, like I'd pop in hoping to whip up a quick post in 10 minutes and it ends up taking me an hour for some reason, and the sheer time sink required from me just steers me away from posting in general, and I've had a lot less time on my hands overall than I used to.


Whatever your alignment is, I'm with you on this one.

I have so much trouble casually posting that I'd procrastinate on really playing like it's homework.


You literally described that perfectly. Are you my alter ego or something? :shifty:

In post 2269, Toranaga wrote:btw reundo whatever your alignment is, it was an immense pleasure to play with you and you made some of the finest posting I read on this site recently. you're awesome to play with even if you were mostly not around to do so.


Aw... This is such a sweet comment. It actually got me a bit more motivated about playing mafia now, lol.

In post 2288, Nauci wrote:Flip flopping doesn't just mean changing viewpoints, it means changing without genuine reasons


Yes, this is exactly what I was trying to say! I'm probably going to cry myself to sleep if you flip scum. :cry:

In post 2288, Nauci wrote:P.S. reundo the spoiler tag wasn't working for you because MS doesn't allow nested spoilers and you quoted a Keyser post with a spoiler (that was fun to hunt down on mobile...).


OK yeah, I thought it was that. I just felt really dirty posting that giant wall raw, but I was too lazy to hunt down the spoilers.

In post 2310, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 2300, Nauci wrote:I think if Keyser makes it to the final day he'll case the hell out of some new person :/

Correct.

Again, this is not scum indicative.

Even a townie will case his next best scum read.


The scummy thing about it is that I don't know you're second pick for scum. You've done almost nothing but push me the entire day, so when I get lynched and you move on to LyLo basically any push you make will be completely out of the blue.


I pretty sure my lynch is just inevitable regardless. Obviously I'd prefer to make it to Lylo and give myself a chance to rethink things, but if for whatever inexplicable reason Keyser flips town I'm basically going to be auto-lynched in Lylo. If hypothetically speaking we lynched Keyser today and he flips town, then I'd say to take a harder look at Toranaga, but the thing is everyone that isn't Keyser is so blatantly town that I really can't see anyone else flipping scum but him. I'm fine with being today's lynch as long as Keyser is 100% the lynch tomorrow and that everyone on the fence about Keyser takes the points I've made on him into consideration.

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Post Post #2325  (isolation #50)  » Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:26 pm

Why Nauci?

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Post Post #2329  (isolation #51)  » Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:32 pm

I don't see a world where both volxen and Dunnstral decide to bus Sesq, or that Nauci's game-solving this game has been anything but genuine. If Nauci's actually scum this game I might have to quit mafia, or at the very least study her play this game intensely to try to find out how she managed to pull off such a flawless scum game. Occam's razor suggests she's probably just town here.

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Post Post #2362  (isolation #52)  » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:49 am

In post 2357, Irrelephant11 wrote:@everyone
Why is Eragon town?


For me it's mostly because of meta reasons. Admittedly he's kind of one of my weaker town reads, but I think Keyser and Toranaga are definitely scum before he is.

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Post Post #2364  (isolation #53)  » Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:55 am

You don't remember the last Newbie we played in? Granted, you replaced out partway through D1, but I have a pretty good sense of what your town game looks like from that.

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Post Post #2368  (isolation #54)  » Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:11 pm

@Eragon, I know it's not strong meta, and it's obviously not something I'm going to bank on, but there are a lot of similarities between how you've played this game and the last. I did say you were one of my weaker town-reads, so I'm not putting too much stock in it. I think a lot of your play this game has been towny independent of your meta, and I don't think there's a clear scum agenda from you overall.

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Post Post #2382  (isolation #55)  » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:25 am

I think I'll go over Eragon's ISO again just to make sure I didn't miss anything. Other than that, there's not much else for me to do this day phase.

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Post Post #2394  (isolation #56)  » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:50 am

In post 2384, Irrelephant11 wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=77254

Reundo just finished a game
He was town
Posted 32 posts in a 3.5 week game

He's posted 56 posts here in a 7 week game
I'm no longer scumreading reundo for activity

Let's hammer Keyser


88 posts over two games... that's actually pretty abysmal. :?

I don't want to imagine a world where Keyser flips town. I guess the scum would be Toranaga if that happened, but it definitely wouldn't feel as right as scum!Keyser. I'll definitely make sure to recheck Eragon then, but I'm not sure if anything new will turn up tbh...


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