Elephant
Lion
Ninja
Professor
Friday
just in case the 9 mystery words have to do with the 9 players
Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]
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Irrelephant11
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades Irrelephant11 He
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Kokichi Oma
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Kokichi Oma
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Irrelephant11
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Kokichi Oma
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Kokichi Oma Survivor Kokichi Oma
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Like I can see how if he makes it to lylo then there could be a reason for it. Do you think scum planned it? Or she did it not knowing she would be lynched?How do you expect to find the culprit when you're all worried about each other's feelings? If you're planning to expose a liar, then you have to corner them psychologically.-
Irrelephant11
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades Irrelephant11 He
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I don't think it's possible scum knew she was the lynch
More interest was shown on enigma and ofrhz slots iirc
So she just did it just to have something for when someone says "let's all share our last wills" (like I did last game day). I don't think it's super AI for Guilty, except that if I'm right it would fit in with my townread of him-
Enigma
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Enigma Mafia Scum Enigma
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For now I just kinda wanna ignore it. If strong town reads make it to lylo, probably need some serious re-evaluation then.In post 1303, Kokichi Oma wrote:Like I can see how if he makes it to lylo then there could be a reason for it. Do you think scum planned it? Or she did it not knowing she would be lynched?-
Enigma
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Enigma Mafia Scum Enigma
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Strong and actively contributing town readsIn post 1305, Enigma wrote:
For now I just kinda wanna ignore it. If strong town reads make it to lylo, probably need some serious re-evaluation then.In post 1303, Kokichi Oma wrote:Like I can see how if he makes it to lylo then there could be a reason for it. Do you think scum planned it? Or she did it not knowing she would be lynched?-
mutantdevle
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum mutantdevle
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In post 1297, Irrelephant11 wrote:Okay so
Enigma only gets like one town point for voting Chickadee
I made my case last game day for enigma/chickadee being a realistic scumteam and I mostly stand by it. Bussing is a thing
On the other hand I'll give enigma one more town point for saying that his vote was because of "self-preservation"
I also don't think he says "I want to vote Pine" in his vote if they're the remaining two scum
So it's only one of the two of them (or potentially none but I do happen to think both have played pretty scummy)
Keeping Guilty in my townblock makes the game make the most sense - especially because scum died last night. If enough flips surprised me, I'd turn my head, but for now I think he's still just town
I'll leave mylo for mylo because nsg
I don't think two scum voted for chickadee when other options were viable (and even seemed more likely) so that means at most one of enigma/ofrhz. Also the fact that Ofrhz AND enigma said they kinda wanted to vote elsewhere is interesting. It's slightly towny and DEFINITELY not something two scum say while bussing their partner. Prolly not even what one scum says while bussing their partner? Because then they don't even really get towncred for the accuracy/detail of their read
Agreed with others' reasons to townread Feysal after that votecount
If enigma is town I'd bet it's two of Pine/Kokichi/Prof
If enigma is scum I'd bet it's with Prof Fridays
This has gotten a little messy. I'm somewhere like here:
Me
Guilty
Feysal
Ofrhz
Myloninja
Enigma
Kokichi
Prof
Pine
Spoiler: words related to games (like, *very many* words related to games)"This post has checked2words off the list. 4 remaining."I mostly just lurk now.-
GuiltyLion
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hello again everyone!
My guess is the words are probably words that come up somewhat frequently in mafia, which puts scum in the awkward spot of trying to either use the words and advance town win-con or awkwardly dancing around them, which may get noticed if someone else uses the word?In post 1280, Enigma wrote:Lol got two already.
@mutant
Are these words chosen randomly (i.e. you opened a dictionary closed your eyes and dropped your finger) or did you choose them?
The line of thinking is are we expecting common terminology one would be expected to use on the forum and we don't really have to try, or just random strange words that we will unlikely use and we actively need to try to expand our vocab. I'm suspecting the former since we have two already."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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I 100% agree with this and will flesh out some of my own thoughts in a sec, but gist of it is I think Enigma is town and probably ofrhz too. Pine/Prof Fridays makes the most sense to me because I'm still townreading Kokichi independently and associatives between those two are pretty non-existent/bad as well.In post 1297, Irrelephant11 wrote:If enigma is town I'd bet it's two of Pine/Kokichi/Prof
If enigma is scum I'd bet it's with Prof Fridays"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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right so I spent some time over the night phase thinking about this vote count and I think scum didn't think Chickadee would get lynched and no one bussed here.In post 1257, mutantdevle wrote:
Here's how I went thinking about it - If scum bussed, only one of them bussed because I don't think it was obvious at all that Chickadee would get lynched yesterday and so it'd be borderline suicidal to double bus when there were mislynch targets for the taking instead.
FA_Q2 is conf town and I strongly strongly believe Irrelephant is town, I have no reason to doubt that. So that means maximum of one scum only in ofrhz/Enigma, which is enough of a reason to start doubting scumreads on either of them.
Then you add the fact that they were the two main counterwagons - how likely is it that we were collectively pushing on at least two of the three person scumteam? Pretty unlikely. And - if Enigma is scum, then it means the third partner also either voted scum!Enigma (double bus? unlikely) or is Prof Fridays/Feysal. Still townreading Feysal, so that leaves the Enigma/PF scenario. If ofrhz is scum, then it means double bus confirmed between ofrhz/Chickadee. These scenarios are like not totally outside the realm of any possibility but I don't think they're worth considering until later.
I think the simpler and more likely explanation is town!Enigma, town!ofrhz, and scumteam of Chickadee/Pine/PF split their votes amongst mislynches. PF couldn't go Enigma because of how he acted in the thread, so he went on ofrhz. Pine went with Enigma to act consistent in character.
It also explains Prof Fridays weird townread on Enigma (white knight) and Pine's weird townread on Chickadee (soft defending a partner). plus Pine's continuous misreps and failure to explain them. and probably Pine/Chickadee were intentionally fucking with the count after all."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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latest reads
{Irrelephant, Kokichi, Enigma}
{ofrhz, mylo, Feysal}
{Prof Fridays, Pine}
honestly I doubt these will change much today but I've said that a few times before and been wrong so"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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actually wait I totally derped on this, because if double bus then it was ofrhz/Enigma and no mislynches were really available and going on Chickadee was a last resort playIn post 1310, GuiltyLion wrote:Here's how I went thinking about it - If scum bussed, only one of them bussed because I don't think it was obvious at all that Chickadee would get lynched yesterday and so it'd be borderline suicidal to double bus when there were mislynch targets for the taking instead.
but I just really really doubt that on D2 town had all three scum suspects nailed such that scum had no control over any of the primary lynch candidates. that's probabilistically super unlikely and just generally towns are not that good and scums are not that bad. plus they might as well have bussed someone like Enigma (who I thought was going to get lynched) instead
also
the point Enigma made end of D2 about not just intentionally guessing a bad number and cutting day short when he felt like he was gonna get lynched is pretty good. I didn't say anything about it yesterday but that's a strongly compelling argument IMO"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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also we only have one week so let's try to be as active as possible
VOTE: Prof Fridays
who's opposed to this"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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Dead post:
I think it is fair to say everyone on the Chickadee wagon is town. I voted ofhrz because I thought voting him would give the best chance of my town-read, Enigma, surviving. The sudden flip-flopping on Pine seems suspect to me, but I do need to re-evaluate my reads post-lynch (I did soon after it was posted, but I forget a lot of what I had thought).Prof Fridays wrote:I would be shocked if there was a weird last minute push on me. I feel like if I were voted to be trapped, I would question a decent amount of the game state, so I'm not sure my thoughts would be super valuable, and I've already said a lot about my reads so far. I still think ofhrz is scummy. Chickadee is a good runner-up. Kokichi and Feysal I think are worth looking at for scum. Pine and Enigma have my full support as town. I think Irrelephant and NSG are probably town unless they make it too far, in which case they should be scrutinized heavily. Mylo has been almost completely absent - I would be a fan of putting pressure on him, whether he's town or not, so we can at least get some sense of where he's at and some help if he's town. GL is maybe town but I kinda like trolling him regardless
As a both depressed and anxious person, I would wonder if being trapped would be kinda chill, like I fantasize about being trapped in solitary confinement just having a room to myself and meals delivered to me...but then, I wouldn't get to hangout with my friends really so that'd be pretty sad/depressing. On the flip-side, my anxiety might get outta whack and I'd be low-key freaking out if it was like a not so fun place to be trapped or if I'm trapped with a bunch of hooligans and/or criminals. But maybe they would be my friends? You never know. Maybe I'll spend my time trapped writing my fictionalized memoirs and hold book signings in my new prison. I wonder, if I were like getting my last meal before being executed or something, and I choose to have Taco Bell, would Taco Bell be all over that as a weird PR thing on social media? They're edgy enough that I think they might do something like that. Wouldn't be a bad way to go as a marketing stunt for Taco Bell. I might be a meme for a couple days."You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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I am opposed!
"You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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Feysal, Kokichi, GL strike me as good lynch candidates for me."You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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Actually, I think GL might be the best bet IMO. I feel like scum would bet on an ofhrz lynch, put two on that wagon and one on Enigma so as to not look too suspicious."You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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VOTE: GuiltyLion"You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
GuiltyLion
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alsoIn post 1244, Pine wrote:Going with 2. It hasn’t shown up yet, and while that is a shit reason for guessing it, there aren’t any good reasons.
if you all like reachy-GL conspiracy theories about scumslips-that-most-people-would-reject-as-scumslips then get ready for a whopper
this post was also weird to me because Pine said 2 "hadn't shown up yet". But we don't know which numbers "showed up", we just know Pine's guesses, which were 3 and 1. 1 was a valid guess, 3 was not. There's no way of knowing that 2 wasn't the first number (where Pine incorrectly guessed 3), from an uninformed perspective.
So either
1) scum!Pine knew that 2 was never one of the magic numbers
2) town!Pine awkwardly referred to his own guesses as the numbers that had "shown up"
I'm gonna call it and say the magic numbers were 1,1, and then either 1/3. bookmark that one for postgame my dudes."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
GuiltyLion
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also your posts continue to feel like you're crafting them rather than writing organic thoughts - you repeat yourself too much. same thing as the double "townreading Pine" I called out yesterday.In post 1317, Prof Fridays wrote:Actually,GL might be the best betI think. I feel like scum would bet on an ofhrz lynch, put two on that wagon and one on Enigma so as to not look too suspicious.IMO"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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That's reaching real far, dude.In post 1320, GuiltyLion wrote:
also your posts continue to feel like you're crafting them rather than writing organic thoughts - you repeat yourself too much. same thing as the double "townreading Pine" I called out yesterday.In post 1317, Prof Fridays wrote:Actually,GL might be the best betI think. I feel like scum would bet on an ofhrz lynch, put two on that wagon and one on Enigma so as to not look too suspicious.IMO"You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
Prof Fridays
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Prof Fridays Mafia Scum Prof Fridays
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Yeah, pretty sure I'd like to see a GL lynch. COME PINE SHEEP ME"You. I am going to bury you. I am going to bury you and erect an icecream stand on your grave. And all the kids will love that you're dead because they get ice cream. Also your tombstone will say 'here lies a cheeky scumbag.'" - Papa Zito
What if you knew way more about the game state Day 1?THE LAB 4 is live!-
GuiltyLion
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But
I
catch
scum
with these sorts of tells all the time
(found by searching my own posts for instances of "craft")"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"-
Enigma
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Enigma Mafia Scum Enigma
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Nah, that comment from him also caught my attention and made me want to vote Pine last night, especially when it flipped wrong. The wording of "hadn't shown up" as opposed to "have not been guessed yet".In post 1319, GuiltyLion wrote:
alsoIn post 1244, Pine wrote:Going with 2. It hasn’t shown up yet, and while that is a shit reason for guessing it, there aren’t any good reasons.
if you all like reachy-GL conspiracy theories about scumslips-that-most-people-would-reject-as-scumslips then get ready for a whopper
this post was also weird to me because Pine said 2 "hadn't shown up yet". But we don't know which numbers "showed up", we just know Pine's guesses, which were 3 and 1. 1 was a valid guess, 3 was not. There's no way of knowing that 2 wasn't the first number (where Pine incorrectly guessed 3), from an uninformed perspective.
So either
1) scum!Pine knew that 2 was never one of the magic numbers
2) town!Pine awkwardly referred to his own guesses as the numbers that had "shown up"
I'm gonna call it and say the magic numbers were 1,1, and then either 1/3. bookmark that one for postgame my dudes.
To elaborate on my further suspicions:
The way the numbers were guessed felt off. Wrong, right, wrong guesses is the optimal combination for scum; set up the challenge to fail, but get some town credit for the correct guess then drag it out but call bad luck for 3rd guess. IMO town would not feel confident enough after the first wrong to guess again, especially so quickly. By pure "luck", Pine's second guess was correct - for all he knew, he could have ended the day early. But then he held on with the third guess waiting for consensus .... why did he not do this for the 2nd guess given the very real risk of ending the day early - unless he knew his 2nd guess would be correct.
It's probably obvious that I tend to tunnel on certain things as I did with chickadee yesterday
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