In post 3732, Punreader wrote: And what logic do you have considering your viewpoint of me was proven wrong? I most decisively was not defending pun yesterday. I was a strong proponent of Espeonage being pun.
If for some reason you wish to argue otherwise:
In post 3665, Shoshin wrote:Who cares what Pun is as long as you know she's not town, she has the ability to kill Vax tonight
I had the ability to kill Vaxkiller. I did not.
In post 3635, Shoshin wrote:For the record, Pun wants to mislynch today because Pun wins if we mislynch. So Pun probably thinks Espe is town here.
I would indeed have won if we mislynched and told you as much yesterday as reason we should have no lynched then. But I most decisively did not think Espeonage was town, as can be shown from these posts:
In post 2851, Punreader wrote: In post 982, Errantparabola wrote: (4):
PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, the worst,
Taly
Espeonage
(2): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
(1): Shoshin
In post 1123, Errantparabola wrote:Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower
(1):
Dunnstral
(1): Shoshin
In post 1083, Errantparabola wrote:Espeonage
(6): DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
, the worst,
Taly, PenguinPower
, Shoshin
(2):
Dunnstral
, Espeonage
Not Voting
(7): Punreader, MariaR/Chara, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
TehBrawlGuy
In post 1254, Errantparabola wrote: (3): Espeonage,
MariaR
/Chara
(1):
Fire Assassin
Not Voting
(11): Punreader, Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, PenguinPower, Dunnstral
, DeasVail,
TehBrawlGuy
, the worst
In post 1354, Errantparabola wrote: (2):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader
(1):
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower
Not Voting
(10): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller, Shoshin,
Taly, Dunnstral
, DeasVail, the worst,
MariaR
/Chara
In post 1445, Errantparabola wrote: (4):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral
(1):
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Shoshin
(1):
PenguinPower
Not Voting
(5): Nahdia, Srceenplay, Vaxkiller,
Taly
, the worst
In post 1518, Errantparabola wrote: (6):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
, ManWithNoName
(5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, PenguinPower, Taly
(1):
Fire Assassin
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(2): Nahdia, the worst
In post 1820, Errantparabola wrote: (5):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral, Taly
, Shoshin
(5):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin
Shoshin
(3):
PenguinPower
,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
(2): Espeonage, ManWithNoName
If I know Commander Shepherd, and I do, this sudden drastic shift in wagon composition is directly the result of his actions. Compare the VCs from
1575 (before his replace-in) to the VCs from
1820 (after his replace-in).
The strong contrast there is validating a theory of mine, wherein Shoshin is by far the best vote for today, and Espeonage is a fine candidate for the final pun.
In post 1931, Errantparabola wrote: (8):
TehBrawlGuy
, Punreader, DeasVail,
Vaxkiller
,
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName, Shoshin,
Commander Shepard
(3):
MariaR
/Chara,
Dunnstral
Shoshin
(2):
PenguinPower
, the worst
(1): Espeonage
In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote: (2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
(1): Espeonage
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote: (5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote: (4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR
Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
I'd like to point out at some point: it is possible, but unlikely, for guacamole to be pun.
Espeonage has a rather decent chance of being pun, but it is not assured.
Shoshin is as good as lock-scum from VCA at this point.
I will not entertain godfather paranoia for Vaxkiller, even though objectively by VCA he has terrible positioning. (His pattern matches what I would expect from pun and his shot remains unproven.)
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote: (5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote: (6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
This just about confirms my conclusions.
I will be clearing Vaxkiller because I will ignore the possibility of a pun godfather as that is stupid to consider that a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to target a pun godfather. Commander Shepherd could redirect actions on punbuddies, but only to himself; if Vaxkiller were pun, he would still be a guilty result if the actual investigation were Commander Shepherd.
Commander Shepherd could not, say, redirect actions on punbuddies onto, say, Dunnstral. And if he could, then I refuse to entertain the idea a one-shot cop JUST SO HAPPENED to be redirected from pun onto town in the one and only way possible. So he is still cleared.
I have good reason to believe the worst is town.
I have reasonable evidence suggesting Chara/Krazy is town.
guacamole has a chance, but is unlikely, to be pun.
DeasVail has a decent chance at being pun.
Espeonage has a high chance at being pun.
Shoshin is basically confpun.
So from this, Shoshin is the clear lynch.
I may need to explain why this VCA is so damning for Shoshin even though it should be readily apparent to people.
Full disclosure, at this moment, I thought that the worst had received the message I sent, because he posted this,
Which contained y/y which I thought was code for 'I am town'; it wasn't until I saw his isolated post of 'd' that I realized he hadn't received my message yet and was punclaiming there. So in this spot, my analysis was 100% genuine in thinking Shoshin was pun and Espeonage was Shoshin's punbuddy.
In post 2858, Punreader wrote:The players who most frequently voted one another were Commander Shepherd, Espeonage, Fire Assassin, and yourself. All four have votes almost always parked on another within the grouping. This pattern exists most strongly
after
Commander Shepherd replaced in and was almost entirely absent prior to Commander Shepherd replacing in.
For most of the game, red has been voting red. I know the pattern used. It fooled me at the time, true enough, but it had to come from a very specific gamestate in order to do so.
In post 2859, Punreader wrote: In post 2855, Shoshin wrote:Pun, apply your defense of the worst to me because it actually applies with greater force.
To the contrary.
As the counterwagon to flipped pun, players would be likely to altogether clear you.
This would explain confidence in victory; if Commander Shepherd was confident that his flip would make people treat you as conftown when you're his punbuddy, his strategy would indeed be sensible.
I said this to Shoshin with Commander Shepherd, but the logic applied equally to Espeonage with Fire Assassin.
In post 2867, Punreader wrote:The proof is in Fire Assassin.
We know for a fact he, 100%, was bussing.
We know for a fact that cross-bus happened.
Do you deny it?
Of course not. It's evidence readily available for all.
So then there is a logical train to follow from that.
If the pun were heavily cross-bussing, what was the end plan of the cross-bussing?
All evidence points to deliberately trying to lynch a pun player.
And if he were deliberately trying to lynch a pun player (in this case, himself), it follows that there would be players who should be cleared from it.
We know it wasn't meant to clear Fire Assassin, because I stated I was going to shoot him upon a Commander Shepherd lynch and I wouldn't magically change my mind upon seeing his flip. I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin, and he knew I was still going to shoot Fire Assassin.
So if Fire Assassin wasn't the player meant to be cleared from the cross-bussing...
...Who was?
There are only a select few number of candidates.
Another one directed to Shoshin but equally applicable to Espeonage.
In post 2875, Punreader wrote:I repeat:
In post 2851, Punreader wrote: In post 1996, Errantparabola wrote:Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard
(2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
(1): Espeonage
In post 2076, Errantparabola wrote: (2):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
(1): Espeonage
(1):
Commander Shepard
In post 2150, Errantparabola wrote: (5):
Fire Assassin
, ManWithNoName,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3): Punreader, the worst,
Commander Shepard
(1): Espeonage
In post 2304, Errantparabola wrote: (4):
Fire Assassin
,
Dunnstral
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
(4): Espeonage, ManWithNoName, the worst,
MariaR
Shoshin
(2): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
In post 2373, Errantparabola wrote: (5):
Fire Assassin
, Shoshin,
Vaxkiller
,
MariaR
, DeasVail
Shoshin
(3): Punreader,
Commander Shepard
, the worst
(2): Espeonage, guacamole
DeasVail has a
chance
of being pun, a chance higher than that of guacamole, but would not be my first choice.
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote: (6):
Dunnstral
, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail,
Fire Assassin
,
Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3):
Vaxkiller
,
Commander Shepard
, guacamole
(1): Punreader
Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst
We know, 100% for a fact, Fire Assassin and Commander Shepherd were cross-bussing.
We know, 100% for a fact, I stated I was going to shoot Fire Assassin.
We can deduce, then, that the cross-buss between the two was not to give Fire Assassin town credit, given as how he was set to die.
We can then deduce, that if Fire Assassin was not the player being set up to get towncred, some other player was.
We can then reasonably infer, that if Fire Assassin was also set to die along side Commander Shepherd.
That Commander Shepherd was quite confident that once he flipped, his remaining two punbuddies would be positioned well enough to win.
Espeonage has been voting Fire Assassin the whole game. If any player were to be cleared by Fire Assassin's flip, the assumption would be him, especially given Fire Assassin's claimed result on Espeonage.
It is simply the conclusion which makes the most sense.
I would like to reiterate, these were before
2883. At the time I wrote them, I believed the worst to be town. Because I believed him to be town, and I wanted to townside, I was sincere in everything I did. It was only
after
2883 that I realized the worst was pun, and at that point, I shifted from genuinely pushing, to pushing an agenda that was neither town or pun and was geared towards not being forced to choose town or pun.
And my goal, then, was to lynch the non-worst pun player to accomplish this.
In post 3136, Punreader wrote: In post 2968, Espeonage wrote:I feel like pun is ignoring that distancing is a thing when multiple scum players are under pressure.
I beg your pardon?
My entire
case
is that pun players distance when pun are under pressure.
In post 3256, Punreader wrote:There are only two lynches which will make me submit this.
One is Espeonage; the other is yourself.
Otherwise, I refuse.
So,
In post 3204, Krazy wrote:Vote Espeonage
Current proposal is lynch espeonage, shoot guac.
Pun are you on board for this?
I am indeed.
VOTE: Espeonage.
In post 3309, Punreader wrote:This
is
me working with you.
You trust me, right?
Well then, trust me to have done the number crunching. I looked at all the figures.
The only lynches today that are even remotely good are Shoshin, Espeonage, and guacamole. guacamole's a mislynch, mind you, but at least he's a smart mislynch rather than a dumb one.
The math works out as such:
Assume, no matter what, Vaxkiller is not lynched.
Assume, no matter what, pun kill Vaxkiller as he is conftown.
- LYNCH: DeasVail/Krazy (the two are interchangeable in results):
This is a mislynch. It subdivides from there. - KILL: guacamole
- If guacamole were pun, the pun player who is not guacamole likely has a way to prevent the vig from going through. guacamole lives through the night, making the vig a waste.
- If guacamole is town, the pun let the vig go through. This then leaves us in 5p lylo.
You are the player everyone has an incentive at this point to lynch; the other of DeasVail/Krazy wants you dead, Shoshin wants you dead, Espeonage wants you dead, and even I wouldn't be able to stop that lynch. This is, understandably, not ideal; it is a worst case scenario to be facing.
- DON'T KILL: guacamole:
This need not be given bulletpoints as the result is the same regardless of his alignment. It's harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so.
Conclusion: don't kill guacamole if one of Krazy/DeasVail is lynched.
- LYNCH: the worst
I don't think I need to explain to you why that'd be bad, yes? It's self-evident to you.
- LYNCH: guacamole
This is far from ideal, but it gets us into mylo tomorrow. It is still harder to mislynch you, and players are less inclined to do so. We have significantly more leeway than with a DeasVail/Krazy lynch in that regard.
- LYNCH: Shoshin/Espeonage (the two are interchangeable in results):
This is a pun lynch. FURTHERMORE, both of their lynches have identical effects. They elevate you to conftown levels, and condemn the other. A Shoshin lynch means you never get lynched, the worst; an Espeonage lynch means you never get lynched; a lynch of Espeonage makes Shoshin a prime punbuddy candidate; a lynch of Shoshin given Shoshin's Espeonage defense points fingers at Espeonage rather strongly.
guacamole can thus safely be shot.
Simply put. I thought ahead. I thought the way pun would be thinking, about the endgame
they
want to set up, and how to best deal with that endgame.
Krazy/DeasVail lynches today with a guacamole shot condemn you to die tomorrow, the worst. That is thus why they are not ideal.
Your lynch today is self-evidently not ideal, and I'm not going to exasperate it by then shooting guacamole.
guacamole's lynch today isn't the best, but it's not terrible. You're not condemned tomorrow, and we have a shot at winning the game.
Shoshin and Espeonage's lynches today are the best; they afford me the luxury of shooting town.
I am willing to shoot guacamole, then, on the lynch of a pun player.
I am not willing to shoot guacamole upon the lynch of a town player.
And I've made it quite unambiguous who I've felt is which alignment, yes?
So you can understand then why I'm not shooting guacamole if you lynch Krazy or DeasVail because that would be literally gamethrowing on my part.
In post 3261, Krazy wrote:Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?
You seem to have forgotten a fundamental fact regarding the bet.
Vaxkiller, one of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven town via MariaR's cop result.
Fire Assassin, the other of the two players who needed to be ranked high/low, is proven pun by his flip.
It thus says nothing about Espeonage's alignment that pun wanted Fire Assassin ranked higher than Vaxkiller, because that is a natural thing for them to have wanted.
I was openly signaling to the worst in this post: "You kill Vaxkiller, you bus Espeonage, and we get into a gamestate favorable for both of us".
In post 3311, Punreader wrote: In post 3303, Shoshin wrote:I strongly believe the reason Pun won't vig guac is because Pun isn't town. There's no other reason to refuse that request.
Alternatively, I feel like vigging guacamole after mislynching town with the worst as a prime lynch candidate is absolutely not a good thing to do.
You'd have to be blind to not realize that's the exact gamestate we'd end up with in the events I outlined.
Or are you saying that if we mislynched Krazy/DeasVail and guacamole was vigged and flipped town, you'd suddenly be clearing the worst?
Of course not.
This is where I flat-out told Shoshin that Shoshin's planned course of action in mislynching Krazy/DeasVail with me shooting guacamole would force me to punside, and that I was
specifically trying to avoid that outcome
. Read this post and try to find any other possible interpretation of what my words mean here; I dare you to try because it is quite unambiguous and was as close to an outright 3p claim as I could get without claiming 3p.
If you need it spelled out:
Mislynching Krazy/DeasVail, then vigging guacamole with the pun shooting Vaxkiller, would lead to 5p lylo, two pun alive. I would out the worst as pun and lynch him...but then I'd have one and only one infection left I could safely make, Espeonage; I'd infect him, he'd kill the other of DeasVail/Krazy, and I'd leave the game which would leave Espeonage alone with Shoshin; pun win.
I was outright telling Shoshin that Shoshin was plotting a course that would doom the town and fought hard to prevent it. Which I reiterate here:
In post 3332, Punreader wrote: In post 3316, Shoshin wrote:The biggest problem I have is that you're not thinking about the big picture.
To the contrary! I am the
only
person thinking of the big picture. Thinking of the big picture is why I am doing the things I am.
Thinking of the bigger picture and knowing the consequences of a Krazy/DeasVail mislynch with a guacamole vig is precisely why I was arguing not to have that happen. I repeat, I did not want to punside. I can't play against my wincon so if the choice is punside or lose I'm going to punside, but if the choice is win with a punside or win without punsiding I preferred winning without punsiding.
In post 3333, Punreader wrote: In post 3325, Espeonage wrote:Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.
Thus why my vested interest in not wanting to lynch town and refusing to shoot town after having mislynched helps demonstrate decisively why I'm not a serial killer.
As you yourself note. Were I a serial killer, I'd have no reason to refuse to shoot guacamole. Regardless of guacamole's alignment, his death would be an extra person dead, pushing the game closer to where I'd be the last alive. But because I am not a serial killer, I have to pursue my actual wincon. And my actual wincon tells me that shooting guacamole is a stupid idea if we mislynch today.
It's a combination of reasons, from POE, what agendas you are pushing compared to what "agendas" others are pushing, and simple analysis of the gamestate.
Here I not only reinforce my wincon but outline why Espeonage is pun further.
In post 3334, Punreader wrote:Forgot to include this.
My turnaround, as you so call it, can also far more simply be explained by me having done analysis and from the conclusions of said analysis, come to the conclusions I did.
Not all of these are even new conclusions.
Krazy, DeasVail, and guacamole townreads in particular are townreads I've held for a significant amount of time. If you think otherwise, that is a failure on your part to have paid attention to my reads on prior day phases since the last time I held suspicion on any of them was on D2. All of them have been townreads since D3, to varying extents.
You and the worst are the only reads which I can say have changed today. You to pun, the worst to town.
Here I further pushed him as pun.
In post 3527, Punreader wrote:Oh there's a tomorrow no matter what.
The problem is leaving tomorrow winnable.
In post 3337, Shoshin wrote:Like, you'd think he would have reevaluated his reads after that terrible read on Shepard, but instead he's doubling down on his bad reads.
Sorry, I don't act the way you want me to act. I act the way I
should
act. And calling the pun as I see them is what I should do.
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on.
I'll answer for you: Fire Assassin is far more likely to claim a guilty on a punbuddy than on a town player.
Well on Fire Assassin's part, naturally.
On Espeonage's part, this seems par for the course from him.
Your argument for Espeonage being town is still fallacious because you're literally using Burden of Proficiency combined with "too punny to be pun". ("Too half-assed to be bussing" is exactly that.)
Here I again reinforce the message: I was attempting not to punside. Now I would have preferred not to choose a side at all, to win without playing kingmaker, but I was very adamant about not punsiding. I further reiterated more reasons for Espeonage to be pun.
In post 3528, Punreader wrote:What I mean by this is, Fire Assassin is precisely the type of player that would execute an abysmally bad cross-bus.
It goes hand-in-hand with fakeclaiming guilties as town; that's just the sort of player he is.
Sure enough, I was right because I knew what I was talking about.
In post 3592, Punreader wrote: In post 3591, Vaxkiller wrote:I'm wondering if we have to kill punreader today, not sure we can lynch scum today and wait until tomorrow to kill him...i think he would win. (assuming hes an sk)
There is a sufficiently large risk in me claiming this, but pun were supposed to kill you last night and they didn't, so I suppose I'll take the risk anyway.
I am indeed a third party.
I am not in fact a serial killer.
I claimed both to Dunnstral, and to the worst; the former, via neighborhood, the latter, via message.
My full role is much as I have claimed it.
I have a passive, Libel and Slander. 0s and 1s people give me are given double weight.
I have a passive, Stadium Status. This is in fact a conditional bulletproof, but I lied about the condition. The real condition is in some ways stronger but other ways weaker: as long as my D1 ranking is above half of the living, I'm bulletproof. Given as how I've been in the bottom 50% the whole game, I've been wide open to attack the whole time.
I have a passive, Chip Represent!. This is access to the neighborhood consisting of Commander Shepherd and Dunnstral. (I claimed to Dunnstral once Commander Shepherd was dead.)
My active ability, Spread the Word, is in fact a conditional vig. When I target someone ranked lower than me, I kill them. You're the only player ranked lower than me and I absolutely refuse to kill you at this point (if for no other reason than it'd render my win impossible and pun should want you dead anyway so I'm not doing their work for them when they screwed me over by not killing you), so I am not going to kill again.
However, I breadcrumbed yet never claimed that there is another half of Spread the Word: when I target someone ranked
higher
than me, I infect them. This infection does nothing; it doesn't kill them, it doesn't spread, it's completely and entirely harmless. But it is related to my wincon.
My wincon is for every living player to be infected. As all of my target claims have been truthful, what this means is the only player I have infected right now is Shoshin, and maybe not even Shoshin if Shoshin's role is immune to mine. If Shoshin's role is immune to mine, I am in a position where it's impossible to win.
I can win posthumously, and if I win, explicitly the game continues on after I win. (Specifically, it says that I win when everyone alive is infected and that I do not need to be alive to win.)
In my message to the worst, I asked him to claim his alignment to me, with y/d in place of t/s;
Right here he did so. I was specifically hoping to navigate the gamestate to a situation where I knew the identity of the last pun but could win without playing kingmaker. I didn't want to punside due to promising I'd help Dunnstral (and my natural inclination to help town the whole game) nor after the worst trusted me did I want to betray him and townside.
This means yes, I am fairly certain Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy. After all. With two kills you know there's pun left alive; you then have a choice: believe his punbuddy bussed him, or believe Espeonage is the punbuddy.
The options available to the town then are the following:
- Lynch me. I can't win, presumably Vaxkiller is shot by the last pun, and you have a 3p lylo. If you assume Shoshin is town (which I would, by the way; I knew Shoshin was town yesterday due to knowing the worst was pun so I apologize for that push), that's a 50/50 shot but I'd strongly recommend the Espeonage lynch and can cite the worst's defense of him as proof.
- Lynch someone else.
- If you lynch the last pun, I lose because I am not a threat to the town and did not fulfill my wincon.
- If you lynch town, then I target the player I haven't infected.
- If Shoshin was infected and pun nightkill Vaxkiller, then I am removed from the game; presumably, this would result in a pun win.
- If the pun doesn't eliminate Vaxkiller or Shoshin wasn't infected, then we get to a 3p situation; I may or may not be able to win but town's chances aren't great.
Given that a mislynch today leaves the town's chances as fairly slim, you'll not want to take that risk I'd wager.
- No-lynch. In return for having not lynched me, I'd target the player you want me to in {Espeonage, DeasVail}. (You want me to be targeting TOWN.) In 4p mylo, we'd lynch the other, and we can win together. This is effectively identical to the first option, in that you are taking a 50/50, it's just that this option allows me to win with the town as well.
In short, due to the actions of both town (lynching the worst) and pun (not killing Vaxkiller), I
am
being forced to choose a side.
I was already inclined to townside by default and double-downed on that with Dunnstral. I never intended to punside; I was simply aiming for a gamestate where I wouldn't need to choose a side to win. But since no matter what I do at this point I
will
be helping a victor, I made my choice and am selecting the town.
VOTE: No Lynch.
Here I outline reasons for Espeonage to be pun, Shoshin to be town, and reiterate that Vaxkiller is town.
In post 3595, Punreader wrote:(I maintain that Espeonage was a better lynch than the worst because I knew the worst to be pun; I only deduced Espeonage to be his partner.)
Here once more I reiterate it.
In post 3602, Punreader wrote:But since I'm convinced Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy and have been convinced Espeonage is pun even before the worst claimed pun to me, obviously I already believed guacamole to be town anyway.
And again.
In post 3626, Punreader wrote:I have also shown that I am punhunting.
In particular:
Yes, plenty. Which you'd have known if you paid attention to my wall.
the worst spewed Espeonage as pun, hard. Look at his constant defense of the slot.
Similarly, look at how Espeonage in spite of having numerous opportunities not once was voting the worst.
Again,
In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.
Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
Here I provide unique, new reasons for Espeonage to be pun, reasons absent prior to this point in the game.
In post 3628, Punreader wrote: In post 3626, Punreader wrote: In post 3585, Errantparabola wrote:the worst
(5): Vaxkiller, Krazy, DeasVail, Shoshin, guacamole
Espeonage
(1): Punreader
Krazy
(1): Espeonage
Not Voting
(1): the worst
To reiterate. The options you are left with are that Espeonage is the worst's punbuddy...or that Espeonage's punbuddy bussed. Evidence of the latter not being true: if the worst's punbuddy had bussed, then there was no incentive for Krazy to have been the nightkill. Krazy and Shoshin were two of the hardest pushers of the worst being pun, but if DeasVail or Shoshin were pun, then they'd want to maximize the number of players alive on the worst's wagon as to not stand out more.
Whereas in an Espeonage-pun world, Espeonage would believe that he'd need to nightkill the players with the most towncred.
To further clarify:
You are left with those two worlds. Place yourself into the pun's shoes in both worlds.
In the world where the last punbuddy bussed, they want to get towncred for having bussed. The more players alive from the wagon, the more towncred they are likely to get, due to groupthinking. Players who are on the lynch know they were on the lynch as town, and thus, are naturally going to be more inclined by default to assume the others on the lynch were also town.
FURTHERMORE. In the event the town is smart enough to deduce that pun bussed, by killing a member of the wagon, they are narrowing the pool of who said pun bussing could be, making it easier to spot them.
In contrast, imagine a world where the last punbuddy
didn't
bus.
The know they have no town credit.
The players on the wagon are, thanks to groupthinking, likely to townread one another. This is disastrous; killing a member of the wagon can help to break that cohesion. Furthermore, because they are not a member of the wagon, the thought that killing a member of the wagon would narrow down who the pun are never occurs to them; they are more worried about the wagon being townread due to bias of knowing it was all town.
This is why the Krazy nightkill points to Espeonage as pun.
For further evidence, refer to how the worst treated Espeonage, and how Espeonage treated the worst.
If that's not enough, then read my case I made against him yesterday, discarding the part about Shoshin (which was written mostly to protect the worst). Everything I said about him then was sincere, and remains true today.
I further extrapolate on this here.
In post 3630, Punreader wrote: In post 3207, the worst wrote:I'm still pretty sure Espe is town, and that case amounts to something closer to "he doesn't deserve to win" than "he's scum". I need to counter case this but it's prolly gonna have to wait til I'm at a PC.
In post 3219, the worst wrote:^^^^^^^^^
I'd take it if he brushed on any actual reasons to suspect Espe (I've argued with myself over it quite a lot) but on the balance of things Krazy is probably just scum here.
In post 3258, the worst wrote:I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?
(KEEP IN MIND THE WORST AND I WERE TRYING TO SIGNAL TO ONE ANOTHER WHAT TO DO DURING THE NIGHT AT THIS TIME)
In post 3345, the worst wrote:- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.
- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.
- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.
In post 3349, the worst wrote:I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.
definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?
Here I show why the worst's iso incriminates Espeonage.
In post 3632, Punreader wrote: In post 3397, Espeonage wrote:For the record I also agree with Sho's lynchpool assessment above. I would order it as probably Krazy, Guac, DV, worst at this point. Scum worst doesn't need to meta me like that, and scum DV also doesn't need to defend me like he has. Basically I've started giving cred to people who are resistant to town lynched.
In post 853, Espeonage wrote:I'll be honest. I put the worst high because I reckon I'll be able to read him later and I genuinely like him. Because I forsee that question coming too.
Look what I found.
More reasons for Espeonage to be pun.
In post 3698, Punreader wrote:Fair warning: I don't have enough time to post content TODAY, and while I have time tomorrow, I don't have enough time to do what I WANT.
On Saturday, however, what I intend to do is write a towncase and puncase on each of the three players spanning the whole game and including meta; I want everyone to read those and give feedback on them.
It'll just take me some time to write, which I won't have for the next 48 hours.
You didn't give me the chance to do this for some ungodly reason but had you the overall conclusion you would have seen would have boiled down to something like this.
There was almost zero reasons whatsoever for DeasVail; basically the only reasons for him to be pun would be based around assumptions of general competency from him as a player. Admittedly, there aren't many reasons for him to be town, but he was unique among you three for having no real reasons to be pun.
The reasons for Shoshin to be pun were more extensive, but so too were the reasons for Shoshin to be town. You could even say Shoshin would be a mirror to DeasVail; whereas I had very little to say about DeasVail as either alignment, I had plenty to say about Shoshin for both alignments.
Yet Ankamius stood out among you three. The reasons for Ankamius to be town amounted to attributing things I knew to be NAI as town (a stretch) combined with arguing that Espeonage didn't bus and Fire Assassin wouldn't guilty his partner (both things I didn't actually believe to be true). In other words, the reasons for Ankamius to be town were shit.
The reasons for Ankamius to be pun included all the points I made against Espeonage and am quoting here, in addition to Ankamius's appeal to me which she as the last pun would need to make.
I would have given you a full wall on the subject outlining this but since you lynched her before I could, oh well.
The point I am making here is, I have time and time again proven myself to be honest and telling the truth; I have time and time again done much as I have said and been shown to be correct.
Time and time again, you theorize as to how my actions could be malicious, yet time and time again, evidence shows otherwise.
So I ask again.
What logic would you like to present today for proof of malevolence?