SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[the worst]

just confirming 3141 is exactly what I communicated to Pun. (albeit my message was a lot shorter )

[the worst]

1 krazy
2 me
7 shosh
8 dv
9 espe

12 pun

13 guac
15 vaxk

[the worst]

I guess I can check guac or espe to see if our figures are off? but like no one seems to have lied about rankings so I don't feel very useful

[the worst]

that's probably the best bet.

[the worst]

I have a bit of a conspiracy theory that's making me anxious.

[the worst]

Nvm. I thought wincon suggested the existence of a third party, but just dived EP and they use TP-ambiguous wincons regardless of the actual presence of a TP.

[the worst]

so like originally I was worried the kitties were some kind of arsonistesque third party thing but I'm kinda realising if there's a third party killing role it'd be pun and they'd be a serial killer. and like I said mechanically pun is probably just actually a vig here

[the worst]

back from the moon. sorry for this intermission.

[the worst]

well this is weird. I think Shosh Pun Espe and Vaxk are town. I'm starting to get really cold feet on my Guacslot read and I'm not sure if it's because Shosh has twisted my arm or I'm actually really doubting MWNN had enough readable content. If it's a town slot I'm gonna feel so stupid

DV...doesn't feel like mafia who's a couple of lynches anyway from a win somehow? like his level of enthusiasm has waned way too hard way too late and that's messing with my head. I kinda wanna say I don't think he's scum with a partner but that's a really stretchy read. Also just gonna throw in that if anyone is fakeclaiming here or concealing elements of their role it's almost 100% DV.

Krazy's night actions kinda add up now. I'm spun out because I townread the fuck out of Chara and a couple of its early reads would be like.. Phenomenally difficult to fake. at the same time it turns out I've hugely underestimated its scumgame based on some more recent experience and reading so I'm realising really quickly how easily wrong I could be on this read...

in a game with so many night actions I'm also just tryna parse whether two conditional scum roleblockers or one conditional scum roleblocker and one town roleblocker is a more likely situation


I'm gonna take a bit of time to process this and think through some stuff.

[the worst]

it feels kinda breach of good faithy discussing this in a lot of detail but it seems like a generic message for everyone who receives the cat. Shoshin town cases herself pretty well here. I don't have a lot of time to detail it but I think I have an accidental habit of reading malice into her playstyle and honestly gamestate kinda strongly suggests she's more likely to be town here.

It's difficult to explain but she and I just finished a game where I went from scumreading her to correctly townreading her in what we didn't know was LyLo. I'm starting to get really similar pings here that I got there.

scum!Shoshin is also I think kinda spiritually different to this. She can emulate the enquisitiveness pretty well but seriously lacks the

p r e s e n c e

that town!Shosh has


Sorry it's hard to detail via phoneposting.

[the worst]

No wait, Chara shot Maria N1, so N2 I would have received it, N3 I would not.

K nvm

wait.... when did Maria use her cop shot?

[the worst]

oh the RB is delayed right

fuck my brain hurt for a moment v.v

[the worst]

that's ok there is no cat

[the worst]

I'm a little thrown as to why guac is lying about his action last night though....

[the worst]

I don't have as much experience with her scumgame but honestly her treatment of your slot and predisposition towards suspicion of everything is very easy to attribute to her towngame.

for contest in the aforementioned game where I townread her in LyLo, (#heromoment) I gladiated someone who turned out to be the mafia traitor to duck her mislynch during a huge TvT fight then once things quietened down explained why she was more likely to be town. her reaction was to point out that I could still easily be scum and demanded that I explained how I was town--like a lot of players would consider me spewed town by the action alone but she was absolutely tenacious.

there's some other stuff which I'm not super at liberty to talk about right now but depending on how the cards fall we mighttttt be able to talk about it before the end of the phase


like I know there's scummy pings from how overinquisitive and sometimes over dramatic her pushes/questions can be but I think it's more like she's town questioning the situation from every possible angle even if it's like 80% likely rather than scum trying to stir shit up?

I hope this kinda explains where I'm swinging with her rn. ngl I'm kinda in the process of convincing myself and it's actually surprising me how comfortable I'm feeling towncasing her in a vacuum

[the worst]

I have an opinion here but also been busy and drinking rn

this is an IOU an espe brainvomit

[the worst]

But the worst's fake rolecop bullshit still has me so suspicious because now I'm really worried he had a mechanical reason for wanting to do that.

What are you talking about?

[the worst]

feels omgusy but I kinda think {guac, Krazy} contains the last scum

[the worst]

also just realised we probably are not in MyLo and if we no lynch and pun holds her shot we're probs in a better spot

[the worst]

I'm still pretty sure Espe is town, and that case amounts to something closer to "he doesn't deserve to win" than "he's scum". I need to counter case this but it's prolly gonna have to wait til I'm at a PC.

[the worst]

I don't really want to talk about the cat thing, it feels bad faithy

[the worst]

^^^^^^^^^

I'd take it if he brushed on any actual reasons to suspect Espe (I've argued with myself over it quite a lot) but on the balance of things Krazy is probably just scum here.


pedit: yeah. thank you

[the worst]

VOTE: Krazy

[the worst]

UNVOTE:
feels like there's a piece of the puzzle missing.

[the worst]

I feel like we probably have a spare lynch tbh. I'm feeling like there's almost no possible way that {Krazy, guac} is t/t so if we lynch Krazy and get Pun to shoot guac like worst case scenario we're in 5p tomorrow with maybe 1 or 2 scum still left?

[the worst]

still, I'm waiting for a lightbulb moment. something just doesn't feel like I've got a handle on this yet.

[the worst]

okay crisis mode. are there any believable combinations of 3 scum still left alive?

pedit: yeah that's what I'm wondering. as long as there aren't 3 scum left outside of those two which seems pretty unlikely. and it was a long weekend marathon game xyzzy and I hosted (before you scream lol marathon meta it was like a 3 day long game).

[the worst]

viewtopic.php?f=57&t=76720

first time seeing scum!Chara. I've done some skimming of a few of its other games but probably owe a full dive (why am I so lazyyyy)

[the worst]

You don't find my style of reads erratic?

I townread you early because you seemed to check out for town. I kinda soft checked out of the game when the postcount plummeted and people replaced out and I kinda think someone cased you as scum when I couldn't keep up with what was going on and it sounded ok? I wanna say Pun but I'd need to check, I was zoned af. But when you yelled at me and prompted me to actually read your slot again I kinda realised that on the balance of probabilities you're quite unlikely to be scum.

[the worst]

Good question, I'll think on the delay. the only thing that comes to mind is the recent Jungle Republic where I had a n1 seer guilty and tormented people with it to get reactions. ngl there isn't much stylistic difference in how I torture people for my own enjoyment between alignments I don't think?

the stalling thing was mostly around the incorrect cat thing, lmk if you need an explanation for what was going through my head but again it's something I'll opt out of elaborating on if I can.

and I probably could've roleclaimed earlier than I did I guess? but I kinda wanted to complete the massclaim and figured it'd be okay since Pun knew my role and could've called bullshit if I didn't tow the line.

[the worst]

Because as soon as you mention it you've unveiled a nuanced read which scum can use to inform their own fake reads? It's almost certainly bettwr for higher scum equity players to give their reads first here

[the worst]

@Shosh self meta moment, you've probably realized now that as both alignments I'm ok early, pretty bad midgame and fairly good lategame. hopefully that helps with some context around some of my read trajectory?

[the worst]

@Shosh hard "sometimes" there. It's a fair take on my play as Labyrinth but not necessarily a constant thing.

[the worst]

Would you say you're always bad midgame?

not constantly but most of the time.

[the worst]

I have a bit of a read here but I'd rather not spout it quite yet. Shosh lmk if you're reading my mind.

[the worst]

I'm pretty sure that's a bad lynch Pun. work with me here? what are you seeing in Espe as scum?

[the worst]

We're not lynching Pun, they are almost 100% town. If I'm wrong and the game design is fucked (sorry ep) then WORST CASE SCENARIO they are tp.

I think we need to lynch Krazy and shoot Guac - I'm pretty confident that their flips crack this game the fuck open (if it doesn't just end the game altogether).

If I'm right about Pun's identity they are someone who tends to be extremely confident and occasionally stubborn their reads. but they're also a team player. I can't see them throwing the game here by vanity wagoning and refusing to shoot guac.

[the worst]

DV lovely I think you might be biased

[the worst]

ugh you're making me laugh in a serious phase and I both love it and hate it.

okay level with me for a sec. pretending those reads aren't like directed at you who you have to yell is town, do you actually find Krazy's read more integrous than Shoshin's?

[the worst]

this is starting to kinda feel right. worst case scenario tomorrow is MyLo/LyLo, but I just don't see {Krazy, guac} containing two town.

VOTE: Krazy

[the worst]

bro have you read a game Espe has ever been in?

[the worst]

I really can't advocate for lynching probtown. I need Pun to check in here and confirm they'll work with us though...

[the worst]

it's like literally their wincon to hear us out :/

[the worst]

do you think they're likely groupscum? I think I need a lot of sleep and some Berocca to attempt to get an accurate read Pun based off play. I might be skewed by the fact I think I know who they are and have read plenty of that person's games.

pedit: I'm pretty surprised how absent DV has been--do you think him active lurking is AI?

[the worst]

the thing that's throwing me is he doesn't feel like scum who's like anywhere near winning this

[the worst]

if he's scum with FireAss + CShep it basically means he took the back seat and let both of them do their crazy shit when like neither of them ever fully left the lynch pool? and it kinda doesn't feel like he's reached 8p and gone "o boi better effort again"

idk I don't think gamestate totally spews him as town but (the thing I didn't wanna outright say earlier) if he's scum with a partner here I actually can't pick his partner right now

[the worst]

I'm gonna need to sober up to compare Partition!DV to SUPP2017!DV.

[the worst]

ngl though first impressions his knee-deep early leap into this game and how fucking good his reads were insanely early are spooking me.

[the worst]

His bottom 3 brackets in partition had like {t/s} each. And his instant zMuff call-out was like....really really nice.

okay I'm gonna compare the pair vs. this game with a finer comb probably tomorrow. I could potentially be off the mark with DV. my current feeling is just that I feel like there's more likely partnered scum in {Krazy, guac}.

[the worst]

I haven't really looked into the semantics of a Krazy/DV team ngl

[the worst]

Probably the next things I need to do here are work out how likely I am to be wrong about DV being town/soloscum and I'd I am, who his partner is. the Krazy/DV thing is just weird because there's a very good chance Krazy claimed a correct delayed roleblock on DV last night. like there's a chance they did it for the theatre and to free Krazy up to NK last night with all the drama I guess..

[the worst]

I think I'm running low on think, and I might pass out pretty soon. :/

[the worst]

@Vaxk I think we should probably talk in real time. There's a few layers to this I'm not sure that you've totally considered (sorry if this is a little self metaey and gross)

Firstly--if I was on a scumteam with FireAss and CShep who had these huge ass gambits planned why the hell would I as the outlying player to them literally just duck having any opinion what so ever? I actually thoight CShep was town, do you not think it would have been more beneficial for my slot to work through the situation with my team and have a less shady stance on a slot which I would have known would end up flipping red?

I've spoken about the claim situation with Shosh as well. my roleclaim is only big in that it strongly suggests Punreader is an actual vig not an sk--the main reason I withheld it was to complete the massclaim. the actual bit that was highly important was learning Krazy and DV's roles because I thought one of them was bold faced lying about their night actions.

I know it's not ideal to pick apart your logic and hard defend myself but I think we're pretty close to solving this game just via self realising townblock. Jam with me here a little?

[the worst]

The issues I have with this in a nutshell (other games and things keep stealing my wallposting time >:/)

- I'm townreading the dude and I'm getting better at reading espe. this is not a gamestate that turns scum!Espe off. he loves bussing and loves chaos when he's controlling it, and he's far more liable to phase out when he's town. it's not quite a reverse Creature tell but it's almost there--if Espe is disengaged, there's a >random chance he's town.
- from a meta point of view you're looking at Espe who is a VERY good busser and FireAss who I don't really have a strong sense of the meta on. like this clusterfuck of scumreads and claims between the two is a pain in the ass to read but I don't think I understand what the hell either of them are meant to gain from it. Espe tunnels FA for either a bus or because his role tells him to which is whatever. it's difficult to read into his read accuracy because he poker faced his early read pretty hard. either he's realised he's genuinely scumreading the dude who's rankings he needs to tank or he's done like a super half assed job of bussing....which gives him no benefit whatsoever. if anything the way they courted with wagoning each other just feels like unnecessary associatives. I don't see him going down this path with a scumbuddy? plus like FireAss was scummy as hell with his creepy SOD1 TMIey reads. as someone who fucking loves fakeclaiming alignment cops I can tell you for a fact that FireAss did not fakeclaim that shit in order to be the scumteam's carry. Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.

[the worst]

I've been talking myself in circles about this shit all phase. Someone (Pun>Shoshin>everyone else) please engage with me here.

Vaxk isn't getting an invite to my birthday party anymore because he's just tunnelling and ignoring me. this is officially a liability if tomorrow is LyLo proper.

[the worst]

Considering how badly executed this would've been if it were a cross bus? lmao

My feel is we're looking at two players who are way too skilled to just have a lame ass slapfight d1. if either of them wanted the bus, they should've seen it to completion. fmpov neither of them gained express towncred thru their interactions--on the contrary creating the possibility of it looking like crossbussing without the gain of sweet sweet towncred feels like attention that nobody should want if they intend to flip their scumbuddy....

[the worst]

I actually haven't weighted my Espe and Shosh reads against each other. I just don't really see either flipping scum here.

definitely townread Espe before I townread Shoshin (needed her to show me what to actually look for which was a little embarrassing) but they're probably roughly equal?

[the worst]

Yeah Vaxk is almost certainly town here. and we're not lynching another novice 1 shot vig who tried to bait the NK via sketchy claiming.

[the worst]

the only thing that pinged me in the last 24 hours about you is the fact you haven't really been playing the way I would expect someone with your role to play (i.e. try and tank d1 to keep the number of flips tidy--especially since you later called me our for giving Nico a 0). But ngl I think this would have played out differently if you'd had other players in your ear and post bodyguard shenanigans I know for a fact that if left to your own devices you'll weigh up the benefit of your role vs. the boons of conventional scumhunting and towncred before actually making any moves

so I'm pretty comfortable that this is town indicative as well

[the worst]

because fmpov Pun and Vaxk are both town and their reads have just flown out the window. I need Pun to have a look at my counter case on Espe and tell me if they're willing to reconsider. and I'd like it if Vaxk actually engaged with me again

[the worst]

ugghhh having said that if we lynch today and there's 2 NKs we hit 5p LyLo tomorrow which means we should almost certainly lynch DV today. like killing both of his potential partners first is very very prudent but I don't want to risk the game on being wrong about one of my townreads rn.

[the worst]

which is like on point with your bg consideration of whether conftown whose reads you thought (correctly) were shit was worth saving at the cost of your own life

[the worst]

in context I agree with that comparison.

in a broader context we'll probably both be in another game with Pun someday in the future and I'll give you a much more detailed read....but there's no real value going into it here...

[the worst]

VOTE: DeasVail
I..... kinda think this is the mechanically correct lynch today.
we're probably in 6v2 right now. if this is a mislynch then tomorrow were either:
4v2 (pun doesn't kill)
3v2 (pun shoots town)
4v1 (pun shoots scum)

if we're in the middle bracket, and if DV is scum, it's an autolose.

in a vacuum I think he has less scum equity than guac and Krazy but he's still firmly in the scumpool. if I'm going to reconsider that one+ of my townreads are scum, I'm not going to do it in 8p when it feels like there's far more likely red flips on the table.

@Pun, I trust absolutely that you're on our side. I just think your reads on Shoshin and Espe are wrong. if we're wrong on 2 of {DV, guac} I absolutely promise I'll hash this out with you tomorrow. but we need to make sure there's actually a tomorrow. trust me back?

[the worst]

we're at this point where one of us is basically confirmed to be pants on head wrong with our reads, but I actually feel insanely calibrated right now. and I think this lynch wins it for us mechanically.

[the worst]

how much towncred are you giving for being on the CShep lynch?

[the worst]

I'll pay that. ngl if I was scum with CShep and aware of how hard he was pushing a gambit claim that was also bullshit while basically going down in flames, I like to think I would've bussed his ass. and I don't even like bussing.

[the worst]

What are you talking about Vaxk? I want a lynch in {guac, Krazy, DV}. if we're epically wrong and DV is alive in 3v2 it's an instant scum win.

look whatever I'll take a Krazy or guac flip if you all won't hear me out but DV's loved modifier has me anxious as hell.

[the worst]

I'm really not comfortable being lynched while I have a dichotomy with three players left in it. I actually think Krazy is more obvscum than guac right now.

[the worst]

he's literally saying I'm scum because he has too many townread's and I've had bad reads this game. like please someone explain to me why this isn't disgusting

[the worst]

and yeah probably not scum with DV so

VOTE: Krazy I'm going to arrogantly park here. Vaxk if you want to win this I need you to talk me through why you think I'm scum.

[the worst]

what's bad about my voting? I want a flip in the players I am personally scumreading.

What shading of you has there been since I explained my concerns and talked to you about your claim in particular? it felt phoney during the CShep debacle and it was pinging me how you kept rolling into the thread acting like you had no idea what was going on but postflip and in conjunction with the fact you were baiting the nk and actually doing a good job of it, I think there's a really high chance you were town. Sorry if I didn't communicate the trajectory entirely but I thought you kinda understood my angle.

What was the CShep vaxk argument I ignored? I got intensely bored during that phase so I can understand the false associatives people are drawing but at the same time I really don't understand why you think that makes me scum here. This is part of what I want you to talk me through.

What about me has been AtE? the closest I've come is legitimate frustration at people's bad reads but I've been making a concerned effort to keep my responses read related and not explode into a fireball of calling people stupid

[the worst]

I actually kinda feel like playstyle stuff is rubbing you the wrong way?
who do you think my flip flopping appeals to and have I not been transparent enough with where my mind is at?

[the worst]

Krazy after we lynch you and win the game can I please frame that post? hoooolyfuck I love it

[the worst]

Sure

[the worst]

I'm tired of the tunnelling shit. nobody is buying this, and I don't know why the hell Vaxk is suddenly lockscum on me without communicating on anything.

[the worst]

rather be a dumbass than a dick, chill out bro.

[the worst]

like I get yelling and acting like youre passionate is a fantastic method for being townread but you might have to slow down for me because I'm not really sure I agree with like any of 3422

[the worst]

haven't I been saying I'll gladly lynch guac all day? :/ he's firmly in my scum PoE.

[the worst]

I really don't understand your logic aboht yourself and DV being locktown

[the worst]

whatever. guac flips red.

VOTE: guacamole

[the worst]

I kinda don't get your reasoning right now. I've been reading players off how I'm interpreting their play, and like it doesn't feel like I'm wrong about my reads.

but I'm also pretty exhausted and distracted. I want to lynch guac regardless. I think it'll be easier to parse all of this later because there's probably something you and vaxk are seeing which I'm just not parsing right now.

[the worst]

sorry if I was rude there by the way. I don't think you're a dick in a general sense, I think I'm just vexed.

[the worst]

pun can shoot guac or you tonight and that's all

[the worst]

and it sounds like they're shooting GUAC only (if they shot you I'd be pissed) and only on the proviso that we lynch Shoshin or Espe

[the worst]

Pun's numbers analysis and my results strongly suggest scum told the truth about rankings.

[the worst]

yeah actually
VOTE: DeasVail

[the worst]

i have a reason why you can't work out my partner

[the worst]

it actually just kinda occurred to me that if Pun is holding their shot, a no-lynch might be in our best interests.
but I feel like it's better to no-lynch tomorrow, instead...

[the worst]

I have more to say but I think there's stuff I probably shouldn't say RIGHT now
i'm also p wasted so there's that

[the worst]

thanks very much (wish it were a day longer ) -- you too!

[the worst]

Atm thinking sho v dv is tvt

talk to me about this because I'm not totally sure I hard read this

[the worst]

*eyeroll*

[the worst]

tfw there is exactly one town on my wagon
I keep wanting to ask people why they're eating this shit up but {Krazy, DV} is prolly just s/s

[the worst]

Welcome back! Finally might have someone who facepalms as hard at this gamestate as I do.

[the worst]

I'm still really happy voting here. I cannot work out what Krazy is expecting me to see here. DV is less likely to flip scum than {Krazy, guac} but he's in the PoE and if we actually have a loved scumfuck we're in serious trouble.

sooo

[the worst]

the worst, why is DV less likely to flip scum than guac?

I mean I think guac and Krazy are the scumteam so...

Guacamole straight up lied about his action last night which is mind blowingly sketchy. Reconsidering that slot across all owners too srceen was closer to his scum meta than town meta and there wasn't a lot from MWNN that really spewed one way or another. Like this slot just feels like obvscum and I'm annoyed it's mechanically flawed to just lynch it.

and Krazy's play today has been insanely gross and manipulative. The fact he swung in to try and conftown himself??? with insanely bad logic then literally told me my reads are jank because he said so is fucked up and I just don't see town motivation in it. also it happened after the guac/me/Pun reveal which has me like >:/

This is just very very likely to be the scumteam. The wagon on me is crap, obviously scum motivated, and a distraction.

[the worst]

not a whole lot tbh

I feel like srceen was pretty unlikely to die in the rankings phase vs. Reuben/Nico who had exactly zero presence

[the worst]

Except if you lynch me and there's 2 night kills you're in 5p tomorrow with two scum alive and if DV is scum he's instantly won.

[the worst]

I'm aware of that, just saying mechanically unless you're almost 100% sure DV is town this is way too close to risking an insta-lose.

[the worst]

He is not a townread of mine

[the worst]

When have I voted my townreads? that would be obscene.

[the worst]

I'm talking like 70% (assuming I'm not wrong on a townread).
And haven't I been saying sawing through those players almost always wins this?

[the worst]

Oh sorry I forgot scum!DV would never lie about that MY BAD

[the worst]

Oh fuck if I'm wrong about Shoshin it's dv/shoshin.
But I don't think I'm wrong about Shoshin.

[the worst]

I'd need to ratings dive but I really don't see srceen dying d1 here over the slots who did. plus like you're talking about an insanely competent scum player...

[the worst]

A straight up fruit vendor is like.. just a named role though so I feel like that'd be kinda suspicious in itself.

[the worst]

What would that even investigate?

[the worst]

UNVOTE: I think I'm being stupid with DV

[the worst]

Pretty sure that's way too late. If you all mislynch me and throw tomorrow I'll be so pissed.

Pun, we can still win in 6. Do what you know's right, please... :/

[the worst]

Congrazzles town!!!
(and massive condolences Pun. we should talk on Discord or something once you've read the dead thread. mistakes were made T_T)

[the worst]

how to be vaxk :
1. read 7% of the game thread
2. correctly nail the scumteam

^ stand by this being the highlight of the game

[the worst]

Gimmie a gif theworst!

[the worst]

Mfw I clear vax and everyone forgets it

ok you did well too
actually that was literally an optimal cop shot in like..... a superhumanely optimal way

[the worst]

how to be vaxk :
1. read 7% of the game thread
2. correctly nail the scumteam

^ stand by this being the highlight of the game

ROFL

every time you rocked up like "hi what's going on and why is [scum player] scum" I was like hyperventilating LOL